Bitcoin Forum

Hello,

I have just published my idea and analysis on Bitcoin and what's ahead of us in 2019. I mostly cover market cycles and what reversal signs we should be looking for.

Read: https://coinlu.com/will-bitcoin-price-continue-to-fall-in-2019/


Thoughts?  :)

Seems like a pretty obvious conclusion you've come to but I do agree with a lot of the analysis. I think we'll get stuck in a sideways movement for a long period before we see any significant signs of reversal. That could be in this range or after further falls, but a recovery at this moment in time seems to me unlikely.

I don't think the prices will fall more in this cycle anymore since we already reach bottom of $3000 in recent times but at this level strong resistance for bitcoin prices which means there are enough people who are ready to hold their bitcoins at this level too.

most are thinking/saying the price will go lower to under $3k then sideways for a year then bull run into the halving. i am a contrarian, and I think we go on a bull run next year. everyone is waiting for a capitulation bottom but we might have had it at $31xx.

ask yourself this: right now at $3850 would you fomo if we went up to $5k in one day?

All predictions are coming to the same conclusion: maybe it will or maybe it will not. Nobody knows as I see, but everybody hope for better result  :D

Lol thanks for your reply - but this was never my conclusion, or at least the conclusion I wanted to deliver to readers. What I was trying to say is that the market will not recover until we see an accumulation phase. A phase that should take at least 3 months to develop

I think with the increased user base, the price will rise gradually.

If it's obvious to you, you're ahead of the curve. In bear markets, a lot of people indiscriminately "buy the dip" a few times and get burned before learning anything about price trends and market cycles. It's something you see in trader chat groups too. Lots of traders try to call bottoms over and over and they bleed away their capital by "catching the falling knife" instead of patiently waiting for an obvious reversal.


Yep, in fact I think it'll take longer than that, maybe 6-9 months.

Exactly, although I believed that the accumulation phase has started already, however, I also think that we haven't reached the bottom so there's a lot of time for us to slowly steady the market and slowly accumulate as we go along. I'm thinking that accumulation will tend to go more than 3 months. It can even go as long as a year. The lesson here is that crypto investment is a long journey, and if you can't wait long enough for the market to recover then this market is not for you, or at least not for everyone.

I am also believing in to the cyclic nature of markets. If we are going to repeat what we have experienced it in the recent-past by the times of 2015 and 2016. If you look into bitcoin markets by those years, you can find that at most of the times, market was trading sideways and slowly recovering from the downfall with had happened in 2014. As per my several days of analysis, I have concluded that market will not continue its fall down in 2019.

Who knows ? We might be going to see that again and again in 2019 also. But, buying at every dips must be a good strategy of trading so that you will never miss out an exact bottom. But, you will be enforced to wait more. When your capital allows, why not you just go for assuming every dip as a bottom ?

It depends.

If it breaks the $3000 support and keeps heading lower then it might create more panic and cause another bearish year.

However I am thinking we will trade sideways for a bit and maybe slowly start ascending back up. However the $5800-$6000 is going to be major resistance to break-thru.

I totally agree with you - $5800-6000 will be a rough area to break out from.
This resistance (which was once a strong support zone) was used to distribute so many of the whale's bitcoin bag.

I think our falling is not concluded yet.

I was sceptical of those bubble psychology charts that were rolled out relentlessly in the past but they turned out to adhere closely to the previous bubble and this one is following a similar trajectory. There's still too much hope, though that may seem hard to believe in certain quarters.

We're not in the boring dead phase which is when you know it's fully played itself out. Every move is still followed too closely for signs of recovery. That needs flushing out.

I don't care what price it bottoms at. I just want a bottom.

That's exactly how I see it. It will be similar to what happened when we broke the $6000 mark, and I'm sure that this will be the last push the last couple of bag holders and ICOs need to unload their stashes.

I'm however facing the same thoughts about the market as we had before we broke $6000. People were overly bullish and the market did the opposite. People right now seem overly bearish, which also may lead to an opposite move.

Markets in general don't follow the logic of the mass, and there is enough incentive for market movers to hedge that mass. I'm glad that I don't actively trade the market but just average my way in. No tough decisions to be made. :)

there's very different supply/demand dynamics at $3000 vs $6000 though. we spent 9 months repeatedly holding $6000 as the bottom of a trading range. after it finally broke, we had nearly a year's worth of buyers instantly go underwater (turning them into sellers). and anyone left holding from 5-figures had reason to finally lose hope and capitulate. we don't have that sort of dynamic at $3000---not unless we go long term sideways again and then begin a new crash.

we also have long term moving average support near $3k---the monthly 50ma and weekly 200ma. that wasn't true at the $6000 level.

after an 84% drop, i'm increasingly weary of expecting lower and lower prices. we're entering the stage where bears get over-confident IMO.

I am very confident that if market conditions in 2019 can recover and be more stable, at the end of 2018 the price of bitcoin only reach $ 3700 and failed to penetrate $ 5k at yesterday's pump.

If bitcoin goes down below $2800 for more than a very short time, it would mean that it declined more than during the previous "bubble".
This would basically make bitcoin uninvestable as far as assets go.
Who would want to invest long in something where there is no serious "bottom" value that you could rely upon?

I am very much pro-bitcoin, but I would have to reconsider my understanding of btc value from that point on.

That feels like a really weird attitude to me.

Bitcoin don't give a shit who invests in it. No one can rely on anything in terms of its value or behaviour.

Anyone who goes into it expecting their expectations to be fulfilled may well wind up having a bad time. Prepare accordingly. There are too many weirdnesses, unknowables and the emotions of people coming and going to be able to count on anything.

The point is that it would become uninvestable asset for many.
Would I still hold?
Probably, but the argument that btc decreases volatility as it matures would be lost then and there.

I think we're still a long, long way from attracting a large number of people with an investment/hedging mindset. Most are still gamblers. Many will be crucified along the way. They won't be remembered in the long run.

Be careful, if you check on the daily trend on the chart, it seems the trend will go down again, but I hope it will be only a correction and then back to the high price. Still holding will be a good idea only if you know what you want to do, meanwhile, if the price goes down for deep, it's the best time to load more bitcoin. Prepare your money to buy bitcoin at a discount and don't be late to act ;D

It's a hard prediction, the chart does show not a good sign, but we got a lot of good news, I personally think 2019 won't be a friendly year for crypto, crypto is going to another phase, a lot of people already scare to invest in crypto because of the high volatility,I think Bitcoin will have another fall in 2019

Exactly my thoughts also!  "we are going to be stuck in a sideways movements for a long time " because price need to be a bit stabilized before we can see the next prices movements.  Bitcoin in 2019, is not going to be a bit surprised but I do believe that in 2020 we are going to see a new great price movement.

Crypto market is hard to predict the future analysis because most of the time it will going to dump and pump are happen at anytime. I expect first quarter is perfect time for crypto hunters because this will going to moon in as soon as possible. If you think Bitcoin have another fall in 2019 you are the looser in crypto investment.

Yeah I'm optimistic that we will be there to move uptrend for 2019 due to many investors are now waiting for any positive movement and once this will materialize we can see that the demand will increase that could be the trigger point for a bull run to come. Although it's unpredictable as we know that those whales wanted to manipulate the market with their huge money but if we manage to cross at higher price this manipulation could be minimize if we have higher demand.

The ups and downs are the market cycle, and although the worst might happen, I would rather be a holder. One thing I believe is that crypto won't die in the short term.

Exactly, sometimes even the expects went wrong and we had that experience last year. crypto has no guarantee anything can happen over a night we need to wait patiently and need to be very cautious while buying and selling, Let's hope for a good result.

In this business, you can never be 100% right.
Actually, you don't need to be always right to become a profitable trader.
I've probably traded every market, this includes stocks, forex crypto etc. while being only 60-70% correct and managed to be profitable.

Patient is key...Good luck

Hopefully this year will give us a better prices than last year. And i am very positive that bitcoin has a high possibility of recovering this year onwards.

Honestly it all depends on what happens next, if all those legit places like SEC,BAKKT,NASDAQ and all that happens than we have a shot at breaking the $20k record and I mean it, let all those three things happen in the span of one month and we will see increase after increase from each great news, it will go up after one news and just its going up and losing fuel it will be accepted by the other and go up a bit more and just as its going down the next one happens and that way we will have a huge fuel intake from all those three to make it all the way to $20k.

The buyers will be going crazy buying as much as they can afford in order to not miss the next big thing. That is what I think. However, there is always a chance none of those happens and bitcoin crumble once again, both of those options are still quite possible.

if you look at today's prices then you will see the price of bitcoin has increased. You don't need to worry because the storm will surely pass, you just need to be patient for that.

I still believe it will go to three digits.

It seems it is following a pattern where the price is cut in half each four months. So, from 12k to 6k, then 6k to 3k, and the next step is $1500 around April, and $750 in August.

It is possible that in 2019 bitcoin falls low but does not rule out the possibility that bitcoin will rise and have high prices. Create your own alanisa with the aim of taking advantage of the opportunity to earn profits from crypto.

It might continue in falling but we do not want to happen it because it may lead to huge losses where all investors and trader will be affected. Even the price of altcoin may also affected. We are still expecting for another bull run and I hope there is no falling down in this year 2019.

How stupid that speculating another fall from price of bitcoin before another year started,dont you have enough negativity from the past year that even when the 2019 not even started you hve a negative question?common guys stop fooling around lets start positive topics to help the market grows

I think the bears are becoming so weak and that is a sign that bitcoin is about to reverse and recover in 2019. Remember that cryptocurrencies market has some news coming up that might transforming it price in 2019. I strongly believe that outside the market cycles,  ETF might be approved this year and if that happens then we should expect another strong bull run that might push bitcoin back to above $10,000 . I will invest at this low prices and make some money when it grow as I did last two weeks and take some profits yesterday.

See, this is not called being stupid; this is called being realistic. If you the most significant driver to a bull rally is positive energy, then maybe you should start having some yoga classes and not trading the markets.

Dear, wake up :)

Bitcoin 4hr chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MDfAAMos/

We are still waiting for investors and capitalization to move, big investors are enjoying their sleep so that crypto runs slowly tends to fall. This is far from what we expected, and this condition can make people panic again. We are still waiting for the moment to be able to improve again.

It's unwise to start having a negative mindset about the price of cryptocurrency especially bitcoin this new year. You shouldn't judge with what events we had on year 2018 because that year was specifically met for correction. So this year,  look on the brighter side.

This time last year we were having many negative news and I think that is what brings down bitcoin price.  This year 2019 is different year and I think we have more bullish market this year than before.  I believe that we should not compared this year with last year and I believe this year will be more of bullish than bearish.

I enjoyed that:


best thing we can do at the moment is buy and hold for the next few years or use bitcoin as a means of payment, waiting for the price to increase to $ 20,000 fast is something that make people paranoid and panic every time the price drops a lot.

First of all - congrats on Bitcoin current jump :)
This is nothing to do with the mindset - I read charts, and this is what the chart is currently telling me. Also, I'm always a big fan of negative news, especially when you get a lot of them after a strong correction, because this gives me an indication that we are near a bottom.

Good luck and happy new year!

Glad to hear that, thank you!

Bitcoin will not to fall this year and it will have good value this first month of 2019. Everyone have good prediction now and it will be have positive result to the market And look the market it will rising a little only  and I hope because of that bull run start.

I will bet against you, my prediction is the opposite, I believe the market will recover and there will be a major reversal that's going to happen soon.
It's still early so it's hard to give up and believe it will fall more, with the new year, we are given plenty of time to correct the market.

How can it be a good strategy? If you buy at what you think a bottom, your bottoms start accumulating and losses multiplying over time. It is like martingale in dice, you double down on your buys to lower your breakeven point and end up broke in the end. If you come to disagree, just think about those who started collecting dips at around 12k in January a year ago, which was thought an ultimate bottom back then. What happened next is history

And it is given to repeat itself

No one really can say if the price will go higher or lower, none of us went to future and came back honestly.

I just think that the likely scenario is this is a new year and there are new stuff that we are waiting like sec,nasdaq,bakkt and whatever which will make bitcoin into a real professional investing option and with that in mind will make bitcoin available for hundreds of millions of people just like stocks and forex. That just tells me it is more likely that bitcoin will go up than go down.

However in case of mt.gox trustee selling a bunch of coins, craig selling all his coins, winklevii selling theirs and so forth we will definitely see a huge drop if anything like that happens. What I mean is unless something insane like that happens price will definitely go up but we really can't trust nothing insane will happen neither because this is bitcoin and insane stuff happens all the time.

Probably not, the price is so cheap that any attempt by the bears to try to keep making the price of bitcoin any lower will be met by a huge resistance by the whales that will buy all the bitcoin that is available at such low prices so I am positive about this year even if to me the idea of a bull run in this year does not seem probable at all.

The increase in crypto is hopeful because it will be an advantage by selling at a higher price, but nobody knows that by 2019 there will be an increase or decrease, I only choose to hold back and keep up with market movements, when the market pumps high then I will use the opportunity to sell, but if it's still in decline, I prefer to be a holder in the long run.

This market really can't possibly keep going lower. All the crashes in crypto tend to shrink the market to 10% of it's size during the height of the bull run, which basicaly leaves us where we are now.

The price still could get lower but the room for that to happen is shrinking, so this seems like a good opportunity for those which like to invest and not take huge risk to invest in the market since the chance they lose much money during the next months is not high but the potential profits they could get in the future are amazing by comparison.

There is always possibility for price to go lower, just depends on different factors that will influence the market. Not it looks that market is standing still and there is no "fresh blood" comming so probably the price will stay in current range for a while. It seams that everyone is waiting what will happen next and how the situation will develope before taking any action. I don't expect some further fall at the moment but neither some significant recovery.

That's an impossible combination

That is, you can't expect no further fall and at the same time not wait for a significant recovery (sorry for double negatives). Well, I don't mean that you literally can't, you can indeed, but if you base your trading decisions on these non-expectations, so to speak, you will likely get caught unprepared by a sudden price movement by far exceeding that lack of expectations when that time comes

Yeah, I definitely understand how it feels. The longer the market stays in a certain range, the more inclined you are to think that it will continue to trade sideways in the future. This is a delusion (or wishful thinking if you please). In fact, the longer market remains the same the closer we are to the point of a sudden dramatic change. It is universally true with respect to any speculative market

Bitcoin got one of the fair chances to bounce back in the second quarter most of the positive news expectation are in the second quarter we can expect bounce back thereafter