Bitcoin Forum

There are many points of view, from the Technical Analysis, many have been prepared to understand and analyze many tools and indicators, other people have been dedicated to the projection of prices based on the Fundamental Analysis, based on an Intrinsic Value. . ..

For the current market, which do you think is the most efficient analysis?

In my case, I take knowledge of both, but previously I do my analysis based on the Offer and Demand, before establishing what type of Analysis is the most appropriate.

I guess you can always use Technical analysis on cryptocurrency while Fundamental analysis varies We can say that Bitcoin and Ethereum one of the longest-running Coin in the crypto market we can always apply a long term value of assurance that it will sure last, You had the security that both of them will stay so I apply more fundamental analysis but there are certain things that I can apply Technical analysis to it like we can say that history can repeat itself so we go check the past pattern of movement or price moves in trends and it may vary on the demand while in other cryptocurrencies that is new and not that popular we can sure apply a short term focus to it, So we can always do both applications depending on situations.

If you're right. Well many years ago, there was always a kind of discord with university professors, that traders always used analyzes that did not meet the calculations they made.

Then one of them harshly criticized nothing more and nothing less than Warren Buffet, he only told him, that it is very easy to do analysis without entering money to the market, if they make those analyzes that enter the market and take risks with the calculations they do to see if they won or not.

There are also many traders who only rely on Analysis completely based on chartism, which I would not do, because they are patterns, figures and I have seen there that even names put them, funny names, the truth I think they do is to gain attention.

In my opinion, fundamental analysis is a wait for a long time so they can be sure if they would settle to invest or not, It is certainly can be applied to a company that settles its value by measuring a company’s intrinsic value then they consider it as a good investment if they see that the company is mature enough, While on Technical analysis they focus on stock chart, history movement and where can the price be heading, I really think that technical analysis is what most of us are using since bitcoin is in a more speculative outcome we never know what it will do next which is just hypothesis or wishful thinking at worst.

Short term speaking definitely TA, long term speaking definitely FA. The thing with the crypto market in the short term is that it doesn't care about the fundamentals. If you think that Bitcoin's excellent fundamentals will prevent lower lows, you're wrong. People falsely assumed that last year, and you can see by looking at the current prices that they couldn't be more wrong thinking so.

The trend is your friend. If you continued being overly bullish during an obvious bear trend, you have done nothing but lose money trading it or paper value holding it.

Both are useful, but sometimes vary depending on the situation.
E.g. Technical analysis was useful for short term when the price was below 4000 and it would be possible to achieve a better result with fundamental analysis. But in higher positions both are useful. And surely, it depends on what kind of tactic you work with.

You can use TA on a product which is fundamentally flawed and will lose all value.   I guess if you are excellent at TA you can make the profit anyway but I'd rather be on a boat that braves the storm and is good long term for the trip across the ocean :p     I do rate TA but its far easier to do well if you are correct in trading the right direction on the right product, one that does fail simple as that.
   Ultimately Fundamentals will always override and defeat any technical reason holding back the price or holding up a price even.   People often use both, fundamentals will point to important news and the time TA will be volatile

My trading is heavily TA-driven. The market price is the best possible real-time reflection of supply and demand. In other words, all fundamentals are eventually "priced in." So if the underlying fundamentals are strongly bullish, that will always be reflected by the charts too.

That said, I always keep fundamentals in mind. Outside of very short term speculation, I avoid assets with weak fundamentals entirely.

It's different for each person, but fundamentals matter when it comes to my hodl stack, which I won't be touching in the coming 5-10 years. I rather spend some of it where by that time I assume that the adoption has taken off significantly.

I'm not much of a trader myself, but when I do plan to go long or short it will be based on technical analysis, because there isn't much else to focus on. It's either that or blindly opening positions depending on luck alone.

On the other hand, fundamentals could matter in the near term if you know that there is an upgrade very near, which we can clearly see affect Ethereum's price positively. It also offers a good sell the news opportunity which I plan to utilize.

I only use technical analysis for day-trading. For long term buys or sells I decide based on news, events like bitcoin halving, government regulations and so on. For example no TA could predict a crypto exchanges ban in China, but that event had enormous impact on price.

Long term holders are never worried in these kind of issues because already everyone know the fact so crypto will rule the future community. Chinese ban is just a temporary issues so we are not consider the short term issue. But we need Crypto legalisation then only it will reach entire world and this make big profit.

I think Technical Analysis will works for us because we can analyze what is going on with the market. But both can work together since when we use Technical Analysis, there will be news that came out, so it makes the price moves up or down. I don't use Fundamental Analysis since in the cryptocurrency trading is different than the stock trading and I only analyze with the real situations in the market because sometimes the news can be fake and makes us panic.

You can use technical analysis, but the question remains, can it really be used on a market so impulsive and news driven such as the crypto market? I think it is hard to use technical analysis the same way you would use it in forex or in the stock market. And most of the so called experts use it the exact same way, which is really hard to do. I ask myself if these TA experts really make money themselves or they just fake it to attract more customers/views/traction.  

I used to think technical analysis is the way to go, but not any more. I believe fundamental analysis is more appropriate for this entire market, or at least until the market has matured enough to behave in a more predictable way.

I think both technical analysis and fundamentals analysis should go hand in hand for us to really be able to make it in cryptocurrencies trading.  Remember that in trading you need fundamentals analysis to know when spark is about to happen and technical indicators to know when to enter and exit.

one should invest based on fundamentals, and trade based on TA.

so a hodler is obviously gonna lean towards fundamental analysis. (and they are more likely to say "TA is voodoo" too)

fundamentals manifest themselves over long time periods. in the meantime, speculation and short term supply/demand imbalances can really divorce price from the fundamentals. that's why traders must depend on TA.

Short term technical analysis in my opinion could be helpful, as fundamentals pretty much never reflect fully in the market in the short term.

However, it is apparent to me that technical analysis has its downfalls, especially in the long run. The fact is that TA can really be manipulated in different ways to tell different narratives, and that's why we see a lot of completely contradictory predictions that all use TA as their argument, especially in mainstream media.

I'd personally rather look at the fundamentals of an investment in the long term. Take bitcoin, as I'm investing for the long run I don't worry about short term price movement as much. But looking at things such as adoption, innovation in the underlying technology in BTC, institutional demand, etc. will be more helpful in a timeframe of 3-5 years, compared to TA.

I don't think that one section of the market analysis is enough for one to make conclusion before making an investment decision. In my opinion, the combination of technical and fundermental analysis will help you in making a rational investment decision as regards Bitcoin and crypto currency market.

You are right, if both analyzes are combined, it will give a better result ... There are still many people who rely on Technical Analysis. Many believe that the chartist analysis always is fulfilled, I differ from it totally, since to analyze, one must have a general understanding of the market.

To me both technical and fundamentals analysis are still very important in analyzing the cryptocurrency market at this particular time.  Most people did not understand how this market work and it is very difficult to succeed in it using only technical or fundamental analysis . If we actually desiring to make profits then we must used the fundamental and technical indicators.

I think TA is a crock of shit. As for fundamentals analysis, fundamentals are still very, very thin on the ground.

Why is there never any mention of emotion/ psychology analysis? That's the one and only driver of this thing.

Until I sat through another bubble and its pop I got increasingly bored of that anatomy of a bubble chart but emotions are playing out just the same as the last time. It goes to show that there's nothing new under the sun after all.

why do you think TA is a crock of shit? if you think market psychology matters, i'm at a loss for why you're so against TA.

market psychology and TA are closely related, two peas in a pod. the former is a function of price and the latter is a study of price. when i read sentiment and long/short ratios and things like that, i consider that under the umbrella of TA because those are gauges of supply/demand, not fundamentals.

that's all TA is attempting to do---gauge supply and demand. that's why volume and historical support/resistance levels are the most important factors to watch.

I get what you're saying. Perhaps I should've framed it in a more long term aspect.

Unlike a deeply established market, all it takes is one twitchy kiddie to spunk all over everyone's carefully crafted analysis.

I remember a Hollywood mogul saying that if he'd said yes to everything he'd turned down and no to everything he greenlit he'd probably be in the exact same position today. I get the same feeling for that.

The cure for that is to stop analyzing short term charts, so you don't care about intraday movements. Most scalpers get chewed up and spit out of the market. A minority of them wisen up and become longer term swing traders. One market buyer/seller should never affect your analysis.

The only difference between Bitcoin and more established markets is the Bitcoin market is thinner and more speculative. That makes it more volatile but it doesn't make it fundamentally different.

That's where most of the TA happens though. And it's usually thrown in the bin within a few minutes which is why it gets on my nerves so much. I don't recall a single day trading TA type correctly calling the 6-3 grand drop. Not one.

Plenty who stepped back and took a wider view often voiced 6k was unlikely to be the bottom so they sound more like your type of person.

Fundamental.

Well due to technical analysis, which is very used by many traders, what does not work is when you use so many tools like ema, bollinger, rsi, among others, some use triangles, if the triangle breaks, then the price will increase or vice versa , this is what I do not share the technical analysis, because no indicator will show you the market phase, nor can you calculate the emotions of the people who are negotiating.

I analyze the market at intervals of time in months, weeks and days, I think the analysis at shorter intervals, is a theme of adrenaline, in how to show what you think will be given. The fundamental analysis helps me to understand the value and the price ... But before any type of analysis, the fundamental thing is to understand the market to use these analyzes.

I agree on using TA for short term trading, because almost all crypto traders are in it for quick profit
so following the trend would be better than analyzing fundamental for future market
too many FUDs and fake news makes FA somewhat unreliable :-\ for crypto trading

As of now only technical analysis and news of course because i want to know the next direction of growth rate..it's very difficult to be honest especially on this situation which is market nowadays become very unpredictable after the sudden fluctuation ,that's why doing technical analysis is my only hope as of now just to keep my portfolio fine despite of this situation.

I choose technical analysis because it is always directional, steady and most get to destination if news does not break the trend. TA would have been giving a lot of profit if not news.

Looking at news is somehow and someway part of technical analysis. Everytime a news pops out I always wait if the market will react on it through BTC price charts and some of the news really has some bearing on the price actions happening in the marketing. You will see some volume changes and price changes as soon as a news goes viral. I always treat news as an early indicator on where the prcies are headed which you can also take as an advantage in your trades.