Bitcoin Forum

BTC Technical Analysis - by CryptoReggae

Greetings to all the crypto traders
This space is a small corner of my trading ideas, and a comparison with those who want to participate.
On this page I will analyze, interpret and discuss only BTC Technical Analysis.

Feel free to criticize, analyze, post new graphics.


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First post, then later modified to add more information to the tread
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💊 BTC Update

Correction coming?
Bitcoin after having invalidated a short-term support (now become resistance) moves sideways, reversing the short-term trend.
Is a new correction coming?
The support of the SMA 100, which supports BTC from further short-term losses, is gradually tightening the price on important resistances.
 $ 3835, SMA 50, an important area between $ 3922 and $ 3964, and still $ 4100 are hardly surmountable resistances without a notable bull thrust, this could lead to "pushing" BTC to a further correction at least up to $ 3600 area, then from there we will go to analyze further supports and resistors.
Further correction towards the downside can be expected in the next few hours.

The trend now is changing, we see the line has moved to get down. Maybe it just a correction, maybe it's the time for the price go back to the lower price. There are so many predictions for now, but we don't have to be panic because of the news because there will be many people who will use this moment to spread the bad news out there. It's better we can prepare for the worst situations if the price decides to go down again so we can make a decision later. We need to wait for a while, and we can hope that the price is not down too deep like before.

💊 BTC Update

We are still within a range between SMA 100 support (currently $ 3796 and up) and $ 3835 resistance.

The SMA 100 on the 4H is what is holding BTC from a fall.

Keeping this trend we will gradually tighten the range, and BTC will be "forced" to take a direction.

There is also to consider the downward movement in progress on ETH that, if the next support break (read ETH analysis), could trigger sales and transport BTC and all other ALTs.

In my opinion the trend in the short term is decidedly bearish, and the only way to avoid it would be an unlikely upward move to overcome the SMA 50 (currently $ 3852 and down).

I think we should wait, because there is no clear trend to what can happen, the slight lateralization can trigger a rise or fall in price. It would be excellent if a small bull appears, but surely there will be correction because those who increase the price should take profits.

However I agree with a brief lateralization that is what is already happening, but I do not think it will last for a long time, this because the intersection between the two SMA is coming and with it inevitably will come volatility.

Technical analysis is also probable, and to date I find a short-term correction more likely. As I said, only a green candle that goes to break the SMA 50 could reverse the trend, but today I find it very very unlikely.

I also find interesting the situation of ETH (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115698.0  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115698.0)here analyzed) because it could act as a catalyst and bring behind BTC and all the ATL

I don't agree with the analysis of us seeing a dip in few hours because I from my analysis and calculation, we should already be over the correction and we should now be expecting a bull run, though the bull run might not come immediately but this won't cause a dip in price, we would just have the price of bitcoin staying between the rate of $4000 - $4200 for a while, maybe like one month then we would begin to see the bull run.

Here my technical analysis, what you think?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3HwiKxID-my-analysis-3-3-2019/

Whoa, we are facing a sideways for now. Trading bitcoin pair usdt is difficult today, but it could be possible if you are watching the market closely. I think it's better for us to leave the market for a while until we see a new sign to buy or to sell later.

I check on the poloniex, and it seems traders don't want to buy or sell, and it makes the price moves too slow because there are no significant movements from the trade. It could be a nice trap for people who want to buy or sell the bitcoin because everything can change in the next second.

And if you want to buy bitcoin, I suggest to wait for a while, or you can wait for 1 hour and see if there is a change within the market so you can decide it later. Still, it is unpredictable situations, and once we make a buy and sell order, we realize with the consequences for making that decision so that you won't regret it later.

By the way, here is mine:

https://i.imgur.com/fFQIPho.jpg

And here is the order buy and sell position (maybe it changed after I post this)

https://i.imgur.com/JUvM0Xb.jpg

In that image, you see that at many level price, there is 2 or 3 btc trying to block the price to not moves to higher or lower so once this is moves or disappear, then we could expecting to see the price will move again.

Here is the Trade History:

https://i.imgur.com/pi5L4kQ.jpg

Besides that, by watching the Trade History, we could see how long one transaction got executed on the market so we could predict how much the price will increase or decrease. It is only a prediction, and you need to make your own research to know the truth.

The price only moves on one level price and then moves again, and it happens over and over in this hour and only filled small order buy and sell.

So be careful of the trap, and don't too greedy to make a bigger profit from now on.

I think it's a probable move, but not because of the RSI but rather for other technical factors.

At the top of your movement there is a confluence area that has already been tested several times, and it is an area with important resistances, I have highlighted it on the chart as a green area, it is actually an area where I previously opened a short , and it was an area then broken only by a false breakout. (the difference in prices you find on my chart is only dependent on the spread between USD and USDT. I use Bitstamp because it has a longer-term BTC history and it was useful when we touched the SMA 200 which was the rebound point on 3k).


Who follows me on my channel knows well that area because I analyzed it not long ago, and was precisely the area of ​​my short start; this is a graph of a few days ago

As you can see the one you indicated for the inversion is actually an area that comes from far away, and has already been tested several times.

It was a long closing area and short opening, and could be further retested, but I would not be so sure, I find it more likely a continuation of the descent, but as I said I would not be surprised if we went to retest that area.

Don't do any TA or Order analysis based on Poloniex Tethered BTC. They were a big exchange back in 2015 but now they hardly have any volume.

Use Binanace if you want to see the USDT pairs. Or just use Bitmex perps or the Coinbase BTCUSD charts.

Most of the trading done on Poloniex is bots and there are spikes from time to time. Order book is meaning less on Poloniex.

I agree, even more so if you want to analyze the book (I personally do not like it).

If you want to analyze the book I think the best choice is to go where you make the largest volumes, and BitMex (for USD) and Bitfinex / Binance (USDT) are the best choices, even if I repeat, analyze the book I do not find it personally much reliable

Nice,you nail that. And i agree its not because rsi its because that area hv been resistance for sometimes now.

The sideways being witnessed is possibly a sign that we could have a strong move. Even though the move could be in the direction of bull, I will just wait to see price get above $4000.

It is not enough to overcome it, there is a need to validate it, otherwise it is possible a deception like the last time, an obvious false breakout that has deceived many traders.I do not think this happens, we are taking a bearish confirmation direction.

I don't see a reversal. I am still bearish for another year at least. (2 most likely)

Don't raise you hopes till you see the price above $6k. And It won't be easy to raise the price to that level. The amount of dumpers from $15k+ made it even harder this time. It took exactly 3 years for a recovery. 2014-2017.

This time it will probably take even longer.

💊 BTC Update

The breakdown of the SMA 100 brought moderate sales to BTC, which is currently working under the monthly resistance of $ 3791; at the same time the SMA 100 has now become a resistance.
Any positive closing of the weekly candle could slow down its movements (a moderately positive sign), but we are continuing towards a short-term confirmation of the downtrend.

Upcoming important supports:
- $ 3730 moderately important
- $ 3693 highly important

Important resistance:
- SMA 100
- SMA 50
- $ 3791
- $ 3971


I keep my Short open and continue with my bearish idea.

/

💊 BTC TA Update

In the last analysis I focused on two important supports, in particular on the $3693 (monthly closing November 2018) that the SMA 100 Daily has come to reinforce.
BTC has stopped here its sales, bouncing and triggering a recovery that currently works under the old support now become resistance to $3730.68, a possible break of this first resistance should not raise concerns for the bears, but at the same time could generate a further recovery up to just under $3800. A breakdown of the resistances $3789/$3791 would trigger a series of stop losses for the shorter.

Instead, looking at the supports, the $3693 support, the SMA 100 Daily $3681 and the SMA 200 at 4h $3660 gain considerable importance in terms of containment, and a possible break of these supports would significantly increase the bearish strength, with broad probabilities of then go on to test a large confluence area rich in supports even if very very weak in terms of content; this area ranges from $3660 up to the monthly support of $3413.


Upcoming important supports:
- $3693 highly important
- $3681 SMA 100 Daily
- $3660 SMA 200 4H


Important resistance:
- $3730 moderately important
- $3789/3791 very highly important


My personal opinion is that the long-term bearish push has not ended, and that even a possible recovery remains physiological in the technical field and that it should not scare who is SHORT.
In the medium term, even after a slight recovery, a retest of the lows can be expected, and only from there will it be possible to acquire more information for a long term.

Short rest and keep the short open.

I see that many hodlers are expecting price bull anytime now but I suspect that we are still in bear areas. I'm seeing the hammer candles though for reversal but still expecting more drop around $3650 - 3600.

I quoted your post in order to show your image.

Currently, I do not see any correction in the crypto currency market. Several hours ago there was a small dip, but now Bitcoin is growing by +4% and its price is again above $3800.

According to your chart, BTC is still in the "SMA 50" area. As I see, crypto investors look optimistic, so I guess that the resistance level of $4100 will be surmounted soon.

Every time the pips move north of EMA 50 there's a higher chance of a breakout with an almost certain probability.
Since you are in crypto's its safer to calculate EMA instead of SMA. The latter tends to be slower to react when prices shift quickly.

Drop is possible but the price now is not moving to that direction.
I am not expecting a price increase but here we are, we are once again in the area where people starts to get bullish.
Price currently is $3,878.24 and $3,900 on some exchange, possibly we could retest the resistance again.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eBCaD134Y/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/stc6m72v/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/swsCgGk2/

I have already desisted from using all these analysis in monitoring the performance of a coin because one thing I believe I this, news does better. Some years back when BTC was just rising, it was via news I kept monitoring the performance.

I only make use of technical analysis when there is need to buy coins in order to guide me one when to enter the market but when it comes to its performance, I can’t give myself unnecessary heartache, which is one of the reason I downloaded block folio to monitor the growth of all my coins.

Everyone has their own strategy, and the yardstick is: does it make you earn? if the answer is yes then you are following the right strategy.

Given this, BTC's movements can be analyzed with Technical Analysis which helps to understand how to operate on the market. Then also everyone has their own strategy.
Just look at the last few days (but this has always been the case) that BTC is moving only and exclusively for TECHNICAL factors. But I repeat, everyone has their own strategy, and I'm no one to judge fairness or not.

I tried to stimulate the community to face technical discussions, publishing graphics, but apparently this does not interest anyone.

I didn't want to publish only my (probably wrong) ideas, but my intent was to stir the discussion.

In this forum I see that almost everyone thinks like you, so I will consider whether it still makes sense to publish my charts. I will leave you one last post and last analysis, and if anyone cares, let me point out, at least I will have a reason to continue this practically SOLITARY discussion.

LAST BTC Update - LONG TERM ANALISYS

On BTC a substantial CORRECTION (not inversion) is probably in formation, which would lead us to reach important new highs of the year in the summer.
This is a correction process starting from the lows of November, and continued until today, and it is a process that will not cancel the bearish trend, but that will physiologically lead us to important values ​​that have not been seen for a long time.

This is a long-term projection, and does not rule out further short-term corrections (even $ 3600).

I personally expect a sharp upward movement, but as I have already said downward pressures in the very short term cannot be ruled out.


Prepare the LONG, we are preparing to celebrate a beautiful summer

Right, the selling pressure is still there and although we thought that the bears are near exhaustion specially when the price hits $3100-$3200 last November, they're still in the driver seat so there's a big possibility that we can see some drops along the way.

If we won't break that $4k mark, I'm expecting another drop to $3700. So just be be prepared and have a said trading and thanks to the OP for sharing his thoughts.

This roller coaster ride will definitely continue before we will see the real strong bull to run, investors who are looking for short term trading
will continue selling and will not support the holding period, but sooner or later when bigger investors begin to show up and start supporting
this industry, we will see the value much higher than 4k$ and will continue eventually.

Still waiting for more adoptions and more strong believers to work with this bear and start to overpower the trends.

Also, see this fundamental analysis of Bitcoin, Bitcoin Fundamentals indicate price currently trades at discount (https://www.cryptocointrade.com/fundamental-analysis/bitcoin-fundamentals-indicate-price-currently-trades-at-discount/).

Right now we are trading different cryptocurrency that are very unstable and I think that profit is really hard to find. During this time, I believe that it is hard to believe in every TA right now because of the current situation.

That was an analysis in the SHORT-TERM, and in fact it later carried out the correction.
What BTC is really worth is a discourse that goes beyond fundamental analysis. It is difficult to assess the real value of BTC, it is therefore necessary to have an overall view of the markets, of the sector in which the company operates. It can be correct or incorrect, you can understand it only with time. Certainly an incorrect fundamental analysis then leads to errors on all the technical analysis that follows..

Thank you for the link

https://i.imgur.com/8JhQvgo.png


The risk now, and you can look at my last graph (https://www.tradingview.com/x/DB8fxdcn/), is that eventually going to 5k, the mass can think that the inversion has taken place and that the Bearish trend is over, when it probably won't be.

In your post you state that : "The number and value of transactions are the best metrics for assessing the demand to use the network. "
but the number of transactions in recent months is not reliable.

According to statistics published this week, Veriblockcaptures more than 30-45 percent of transactions on a good day.
Since March 4, Veriblock has stopped "flooding" the bitcoin network, and the number of transactions has dropped dramatically.
This is a typical example of how unfortunately it is easy to fall into error. The consequences are those of taking into consideration "falsified" data to attribute a value to BTC that is not real.

it's nice to review the graphs posted ;D
I can't even post an image .....

So you make this thread for merit?  I see it.
Actually, it's not hard to get merit, as long as your post is helpful but you can't tell people to give you merit, merit will just come if they like giving it.
Just continue sharing, this forum is built to share ideas and opinion, and merits are given to those who deserve it.

Don't expect it, it will come as a surprise.

Yep sure is. It's like begging for merits and it is against in the rules as far as I know. Just continue in sharing your opinion regarding the market and probably if you're right and justified your belief, maybe someone will merit you.

I think you misunderstood me. I don't care about any merit, nor am I asking (I removed the ambiguous part of my place), but you understand that there is no stimulus to post something that is not even visible.


With this I close because I am OT

Exactly you cannot trust and follow every technical analysis or fundamental analysis. A technical analysis few days ago read that Bitcoin will rise to $7k in the market. Different people have different opinions based on the technical analyses they do so I think that regardless of technical analysis, an investor should stay in the market. Risk is there I know but the rising trend is back to the action as well which can make the profits double regardless of how accurate with our analysis. I guess this one way of market trend makes crypto markets as a favorite one for most traders.

Well, the April ascent we can conclude that it is near its peak, it's time to reverse the trend.

Ready?

These analysis are wrong at times. The one I read before was saying different from what is being said here. Buh whatever, I already knew that there is not going to be anything better this first quarter of the year. I really hope that things change by the end of the year. 🙄 Tired of the price dropping at all times, I rely mostly on the long term strategy and that’s not working out if price continues like this.

from your predictions, right now, bitcoin has exceeded your expectations, even now bitcoin touches the price of $ 5,811 (source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)

although this can't be said to be a bull run but I really applaud your very good predictions.
analytical techniques from an experienced trader really help beginner traders.

Short and long term must be understood as different operations and strategies, which however can be carried out together clearly in different modes of execution.
Actually my predictions turned out to be correct, just analyze them in sequence point by point.

In particular, to the post you report, I talked about a "probable descent in the next few hours" (it was a very short-term trade), just look at the two images to understand:

https://imgur.com/dJjEwrv
https://imgur.com/8JhQvgo

Later I had analyzed a probable climb up to over 5k, explaining it in this post
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115951.msg50171268#msg50171268

and also attaching the medium-term chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DB8fxdcn/

I also stated in that last post, and I want to reiterate it, that
"The risk now, and you can look at my last graph (https://www.tradingview.com/x/DB8fxdcn/), is that eventually going to 5k, the mass Bearish trend is over, when it probably won't be. "
These were my words, and honestly I do not see any errors in my analyzes, but I am ready to analyze all my possible mistakes if I had ever noticed them.
I want to emphasize that every analysis is not error-free, but objectively I have practically taken them all, both in the short and in the medium/long term.


To be honest, the only thing I probably never imagined, is that the climb took place in such a short time (I expected to exceed 5k by the end of May / mid-June), but this speed was probably triggered by the Tether problem.

BTC Long Term Analisys - 05-05-2019 by CryptoReggae


I try to update my long-term analysis,
since the last real analysis was made by me on March 15th with a target of 5.1k (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5115951.msg50171268#msg50171268), but then in practice by me moved to $5215 and closed there. From $5215 touched on April 3rd I closed all LONG positions.

After a very long ride that began at the February low, we reached the new highs of the year touched yesterday, 4 May 2019.
The climb, although I expected, was in my opinion very "supported", almost forced, with volumes not worthy of such a climb, as if to close the swing in advance.
The bullish push we can imagine that very soon it will be exhausted, a matter of hours / days.

What to expect in the coming weeks/months?
We are in the SWING area, or the strength of the bulls is at its peak. The inversion area is between $5780/$6345 (Bitstamp value, Kraken, NO USDT).
We could expect an acceleration of the events, in particular driven by the expected news of Bitfinex and the possible Ban mining in probable arrival from China, but this will not go to alter the movement but only speed it up.

We keep 6k area under consideration, which besides being a psychologically strong area, is an area of ​​very strong pressures (sell/buy), and as always in a trade we have only two possibilities, go long or go short. So what to do?

In my opinion we have 3 possible scenarios, 1 of a reversal occurred and 2 of a Bearish Trend recovery. I announce immediately that in my opinion the Bearish Trend is far from over, indeed, it iswe will still have quite a bit.

Possible scenarios
1) BTC exceeds 6k with strength and volume and the FOMO starts
2) BTC tries a 6k test, we pass the 6k and the Fomo starts, but it's a False Breakout
3) BTC tries a timid test of the maximum ($ 5870) and reverses

I personally would totally exclude scenario 1) (more than 6k and fomo) for many reasons that I have already explained several times in the past and that I don't want to repeat.
The most probable are, in my opinion, scenario 2) and 3), with higher probabilities for scenario 2).

An attempt to break 6k would unleash the FOMO of the little ones, because that area is psychologically very strong in people, but at the same time it is an area where the shorters and long trade longhers have their orders waiting to unleash the sell. In my last trade I was talking about this "risk" of triggering a FOMO without a real technical response, here we are, in part, already entered this "mode".


In conclusion, my operational strategy will be to place the short stiles, then more short orders, in an area between $5870 and $6345, with a very first target in the area 4172/4046, where I will eventually be able to lighten the positions (even if this is premature now, so I'll go back to doing the analysis later before setting up any sells).


Following the chart.

https://i.imgur.com/xmqkgwX.png

As much as I want the bull right now, something still tells me that there is not going to be a Bull run any time soon. But maybe there is going to be a Bull before the end of this year or maybe in 2020 like some analysts once said. Anyone placing their hopes on the bull run should better stop and look for another solution.

The analysis was invalidated by the break, but personally I am not convinced of this climb.

The 6k were one of the most difficult resistances to break, and it was broken with impressive ease, most likely facilitated by the unfinished Bitfinex / Tether story, where users purchased BTC to exit the platform.

At this point we have to wait for the first real retracement, and from there we will understand if it is a real inversion, or it will be like I fear a false breackout

I don't think Bitfinex would have enough market share to be able to make the price rise from like $5000 to $8000. This might of been possible with MtGox because it was pretty much the only exchange but Bitfinex lost alot of its volume from the 2017 days.

I think its just a continuation of the April 1st pump which was before all this Bitfinex fud.

I would say that this rally maybe up to $7000 area was driven by bears which were short covering. I think many of them shorted the $6000 area and it was proved by the funding rate and open interest that many bears shorted that area, and when we broke $7000 most of them just took the loss and covered.