Bitcoin Forum

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Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Thomas Lee broke with tradition about Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts on March 14, telling CNBC he thinks a bull market could return within six months.

In an interview with the publication, Lee, who is well known as a Bitcoin bull — but said he would stop giving out timeframes for a price rebound in December — now claimed August could see a market U-turn.

“I think the key number to watch is the 200-day moving average,” he told the network, continuing:

    “If Bitcoin holds above $4,000, it’ll cross its 200-day [moving average] by August, so I think the outside window is five to six months before Bitcoin starts to look technically like it’s back in a bull market.”

Referencing Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) contentious hard fork in mid-November, Lee stated, “I think the damage that really needs to be repaired is that drop from $6,000 to $3,100,” adding:

    “I think it really undermined investor confidence and the dynamics around the market[.]”

As recently reported, Bitcoin had begun to deliver returns to investors through February, with average daily increases of around 0.5 percent. The number this month has shrunk, with daily numbers closer to 0.2 percent, leading some to think a fresh bear market downturn could be imminent.

Since peaking at all-time highs around $20,000 in December 2017, Bitcoin has seen the longest bear market in its history, with subsequent lows averaging just above $3,100.

In December, fellow market analyst Tone Vays sounded a more intense warning, forecasting BTC/USD to fall to near $1,000 before bearish sentiment definitively ends.


Reference: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-breakout-scheduled-for-august-says-fundstrats-tom-lee

i thought he was done making predictions. say it ain't so, tom! ::)

he's been the best contrarian indicator i've ever seen. i'm hesitant to stay too bearish for too long, but this prognostication from tom lee might have just delayed the bull market until at least december! :P

Hope this prediction will be real in the summertime. Otherwise, we need to wait 6 months for the price in order to touch the resistance level and breaking it.  August is a good month for bitcoin and the latest fork of Bitcoin happened in the summer of 2017.

If he's not right about it then I might count his prediction as a lucky shot, though I am not really into this prediction thing where people predicting prices. Since we are in a bearish trend why not trust some of them, there's nothing wrong if we just trust him, but if you guys are planning to invest just because of something like this, it is up to you to take that risk. I know cryptocurrency in really unpredictable.

Tom Lee has been the cryptoworld's most jinxed guy after a lot of his predictions went the other way around of what he expected. Still, props to the dude for continuing his predictions even though he already made his name somewhat a laughing stock in the cryptoworld. Every time I see a bullish prediction from Tom Lee, I already think about the other way around as was always the case even on his previous predictions. I mean, it's okay to be a permabull but you need to have some sensible predictions on a multitude you give out.

And Tom Lee is back! I was starting to wonder where he went...

I guess he's trying to keep his clients happy and calm as they're probably getting a bit tired of waiting for the price to go up, so he decided to throw some random date backed with TA to make it look more "professional", but as we all know, at the end of the day, TA can't help you predict the next surge in the btc price.

He has such a bad record when it comes to btc predictions, let's see if he gets it right this time.

I mean, Tom Lee predicted $20,000 for the end or 2018, and failed miserably. It wasn't even anywhere close. If people still think these predictions are anywhere accurate at all, well that's beyond me. Almost everyone pretty much made ridiculous predictions last year.

Agreed, last year the fall itself stated as an beginning for a large scale price pumping. Beyond certain price drop people weren't able to digest the same. Users had a thought of bitcoin price to be above $5000 to be a standard value. To the expectation everything got crashed as most predictions. This time Tom has put forth his statement regarding a strong price pumping. Let's hope the best happens.

I like Tom Lee better when he is his bullish self, throwing predictions in the air from nowhere. Be careful, however. This time his predictions might be correct. The bear market must end somewhere hehehe.

Ive like this guy much better than someone noisy guy who keep saying he would it is his dick if the price of bitcoin reach that impossible amount. I wont name that guy possibly everyone here knows him and he is the king of all shiller (paid ads to shill). Bitcoin experiencing the longest bear run could mean a lot and a possible break out on its current level isnt assured yet.

exactly, that's why i don't take this one too seriously. whether we bottomed 3 months ago or it happens later this year, tom lee will be right eventually just like a broken clock. i'm still a long term bull, so i'm betting on him being right eventually.

i just hope for his sake that fundstrat still has some clients by then! :P

I also like Tom Lee's prediction though, obviously he has all the intentions from behind, but in the last couple of his predictions, he seems to be shall we say, his feet is on the ground. He doesn't have that exorbitant predictions as he used to be. He even admitted that there will be no bull-run at the end of his 2018 predictions. But this time, I hope he is right at it seems plausible, at least the way I see it.

at least now his predictions are starting to make more sense compared to what he kept insisting on last year with new ATH and stuff like that!
the biggest problem that bitcoin is currently facing for its rise is the damage that was inflicted on the investors' confidence because the latest drop that we had (going below $6k) was considered purely manipulative and due to BCash FUD and other kind of attacks on the market value. and to get out of this kind of lack of confidence we first need to see some rises and some time for accumulation. and that is what has been happening these days. if it is kept up we can see $6k within 1-2 months.

Anyone can throw their predictions from nowhere but the difference with these popular people is that their predictions either do have possible impact or not having at all.
So, as a fundamental kind of trader then you might see this as a sign for a good position indication.

Exactly, Tom's prediction last year was very disastrous to his reputation, and he keep on singing the same tune when everyone, even just a casual traders knows exactly what's going on to the market at that time. At least today, or for this year, he learn from his past mistakes and his prediction seems to be achievable at least this year. I don't know how Fundstat and his clients are doing, and I do hope that his clients are still with him eventhough we're still in the bearish cycle.

It is already clear that we are at the button bear and a prediction for bull won't be much of a big news. My worry then is, it is likely to start a bull before August.

You can’t blame him mate because he has to answer those who are asking him questions about target prices from time to time and if he doesn’t use his position to influence the market through his predictions, who else will ? There are lots of events that have occurred along the line that one cannot easily predict which has had one or two negative effect on the price.

At least in past, before now, predictions has played a major role in the upward trend of market prices, just that a lot of people are tired of following predictions now as many of them has not gotten any right, very soon prediction will lose its relevance in this market just like ICO is already losing.

He predicted so many false predictions that is last time he will be right once. Even broken clock is right twice a day!

Well, there is no harm in trying even if his reputation suffers.  But one correct prediction will redeem him from all those disgrace so, why not tell another prediction.  Though it is funny how he said not to tell another prediction and  yet he is here again predicting something about Bitcoin being bullish, maybe he saw something that we failed to see.  Whatever our opinion regarding this prediction, only time can tell if he is right or not.

Till date very few price predictions might have coincided with the reality. As in the quote as broken clock coincides with the right time in cryptospace too that can happen. Yesterday too some price predictions have come stating that the market price Wil reach ₹10000 by the fourth quarter of the year. As an user it is good to predict ourselves and stick to it. These predictions need to be considered as a boosting to stay active on cryptospace.

my theory is that him (and basically a lot of others like him who have been doing the same thing) are making these statements constantly in the media because they want to increase the publicity of their company.
if you think about it, we probably would have never heard the name "Fundstrat" if he didn't constantly come up in the news with his outrageous guesses in 2018.
others have done the same, like McAfee who obviously used that publicity to make millions from his tweets and his pumps of shitcoins.

Predictions! Predictions! Predictions! Welll anyone can get almost too good to be true prediction and it will be more intriguing if the person predicting it is prominent. At least care about the use case not the price.

I believe that is their main motive why they keep on giving predictions and they enjoy the media attention that they are getting. Though he has no good image in crypto community yet we don't know if he is raking money behind the scenes because his company is getting well known. Good or bad publicity will make a difference to his company's financial status. And that is the important aspect at the end of the day.

They must have been big on their own before their prediction was taking seriously, we have so many analyst out there that there prediction is more outrageous and yet we still don’t get to hear about them, it might not necessarily mean that they do so with the intention of creating awareness for their company but creating awareness as an investor too. He wouldn’t just come out to be predicting a coin if he is not also an investors in it, there are so many mediums he can use to create awareness for his product.

With your John McAfee illustration, you now see that they do so in other to promote whatever coin they also invested in and not because McAfee product was not already known worldwide.

I doubt he is making money, unless he purposely is trying to make himself look like a fool to do the exact opposite behind the scenes.

In the end, I do believe that the reputation of Fundstrat is suffering from this because who's going to take them serious when one of their main characters is wrong each and every time? The worst part for him was when during a CNBC item he was asked why he keeps on doing this to himself and whether or not it's better to stick to the legacy market. Ouch.

Ah well, the good thing about Tom Lee is that we can use him as counter indicator.  ;D

We should start betting against Tom Lee's predictions and make money this way. Some people are not meant to do certain jobs and Tom Lee is like the opposite of an oracle.
Want to bet some money that he'll be wrong again this time? Maybe he's cursed? :D

That’s not new, but since the market is getting better he might be right this time but of course give credits to those who really help the market up again. Predictions is useless without investors so i think its better to encourage people that to spread predictions. We will break that resistance this year i believe on this.

Seems like its more truthful now because we had already passed $4,000 and looking stability on this range,while Tom Lee is good in predicting yet I don’t take this one seriously because this might be another whale Trap

Im tired of those tricks when i become a victim once with their manipulation strategy.but of August brings us good enough reason then i woll consider buying with my assets on hand

I like Tom Lee as a bitcoin bull but with his predictions, I'm not listening to him. Look at the comments of everyone here who's not impressed anymore with his predictions. We want the market to see its on good condition again and I guess this is just his way to attract the investors back.

Probably he's going to be right this time? or no? hehe. He should stop giving dates on when exactly the bull run will start because he's aware that it's nearly impossible to have that indication that bull run's about to start.

I wouldn't take too much thought into this prediction. Remember what happened last year?

Everybody assumed BTC would go back to ATH after the tax due date? It rallied for a month and then started heading back down again.

Same for the prediction that it would rally from $6K in Nov-Dec 2018 because its usually when BTC has a bullish move. Instead what happened? The complete opposite and it was a nasty crash. And the crash was nasty due to all the over leverage people who assumed it was the bottom and were wrong and unless you used 1x leverage, you would of been most likely liquidated.

You should know from the start when the current price movements are just the result of price manipulations made by investors so they will only make traders trapped like you.

When it is Tom Lee speaking people tend to not even care what he says, he could say its going down or its going up and we do not give a damn because lets face it its Tom Lee and he is a joke here and it is right that he is a joke because all of his predictions are just funny.

Nonetheless, this time it is a bit true because bitcoin has been low for a long time and we are getting closer and closer to the bitcoin breakout and halving so before that time comes bitcoin prices should start to go up. August seems like a proper time period because at least it would be before the halving happens and if you buy during August than you would be in big profit during next years May.

Well, that is at least how some investors think, I will keep on buying more this summer as well so I am part of the people Tom Lee relies on.

You don't really believe it works this way, do you  :) ? I mean, predictions of things getting better are not likely to cause the postponing of it. August as a start of the bullish market is not terrible, but it's not great either. It's been terribly long already, and the only thing that was giving me hope lately was the significant increase in bitcoin's trading volume that is capable of supporting twice as high prices, but then there's this news on how the volumes are actually faked almost entirely.. And the prices don't seem to be moving much, so we are still deep in the mud.

Well it is hard to set number and is hard to set dates. But it is not that hard to predict how price will move and I saw plenty of such predictions. Plenty. On this forum or elsewhere. This guy is shooting rubbish for as long as I noticed him. His predictions are way out of reality.

Actually, prediction works a lot and quite reliable especially when done though technical and fundamental analysis, if we look at fiat currency, it been quite easy to predict the market because of the level of stability it has attained, crypto too would have been easy if not for the level of dumping that goes on in the market and that is why it seems like we have lots of prediction that has not come to pass but if we are to go by the way the system should fully operate, those predictions could have been right, but now that we are still in a volatile market, what can we do?

Nothing but to still continue helping the market with positive prediction whether real or not.

I think Tom Lee predictions is based some fundamental and technical analysis best known to him I believed he had done his home work before going out to publicly make such predictions however that does not means we should accept his predictions hook, line and sinker because in most cases bitcoin do defies any form of analysis.
His predictions is highly welcomed and will probably restore more confidence in potential investors as they will probably sees it as a green light ahead thus investing now.

two things exist in your comment that are wrong.
first of all when someone is saying price is going to continue to rise when it has clearly stopped, the bubble has burst and the market is showing all signs of bear market. and similarly when someone insists on drop when market is clearly reversed and stopped at the bottom. both of these can not be true and it has nothing to do with the system and how it operates.

secondly, when it comes to predicting the whole market (meaning altcons included) it becomes nearly impossible to even speculate about them because no analysis works since 90% of them are purely pump and dumps and you can't predict that.

Bitcoin is showing signs of slow recuperation. This could all potentially be leading up to what one analyst says will be another major bull run this coming August. That analyst is Tom Lee of Fundstrat fame. No stranger to our price pieces, Lee often comes with strands of controversy attached to his predictions. This time around, Lee is claiming all over again that bitcoin is set to spike. He comments that 2019 will be all about bitcoin trying to heal its wounds:

I reckon we need a new bitcoin price prediction expert to laugh on. Someone who is the opposite of Tom Lee hehehe.

Any suggestions? I need a bitcoin bear.

I will also agree with this article that there will be a breakout in the price of bitcoin from august because it is very close to my prediction which I said that the price of bitcoin will begin to experience a bull run when we least expect because it will happen in the fourth quarter of the year. I know that it doesn't look like we are going to see a breakout yet because the market is bearish, but it would happen and I am confidence of this.

you can "predict" the future, but you can't change the past, this piece of information is wrong af, the longest bear market btc has seen was in 2014/2015, it took  637 days to hit the lowest low from ath , the current bear market is only 469 days old.

I do agree on his views about the market and I am one of his followers.  Tom Lee is always positive about the market and probably that is the most reason why he is one of the top guys in cryptocurrencies cycle.  The bearish trend that brought us to the current market conditions is almost over and the bullish trend will soon commence but the bull run will happen around that August.   

I don't advise myself to trust and expect these kinds of predictions but I find him that he had his researches before predicting it. But some of the people don't trust Thomas Lee and said that he is actually a liar. But I can tell that he is an analyst, not a future teller so we can't actually hate him. He nailed pas predictions and some people agree with him. Bitcoin is a way undervalued at the moment hence why Jack Dorsey Twitter CEO is buying bulk paying $10k a week. #check the comments on the link you have shared.

@cybersofts. Can you add a poll for this thread to survey and asking if Tom Lee should be followed this year or not hehehe? We laughed at him for a whole year on 2018, this might be the year for him to begin laughing at us.

you should never "follow" anyone even if they were correct. all these numbers everyone is coming from is 90% pointless because most of them pull their out of their behinds!
we all know bitcoin is going to rise and set a new ATH but we never had any way of telling when it is going to happen and how big it is going to be.

Hey while last year he got it completely wrong I feel we should give him the benefit of the doubt, and hope that this time his predictions come right. I feel a poll would be a great idea, as we will get to know how many believe he’ll get it right this time. Also as we speak bitcoin prices have slowly but steadily began to rise above $4K levels, I feel if bitcoin prices can sustain these levels for few days then we may see $5k levels by May.

but he wasn't just wrong about predicting the price he was ridiculously wrong and kept on insisting on his target price which at some point became too obvious is never going to happen.
i mean we have all made mistakes and will make them but every trader should be flexible in the market and change with it, if you stick to one trend and never give it up you will lose.

Calling him "liar" is a bit too much. Someone who lies has the intent to deceive someone into believing that something is true. Tom lee isn't doing that, he's just sharing his views about the current market situation, or he simply wanted to go back to his old 'trying to predict the price' days to keep his clients happy or because it was time to make some bullish statements.

Either way, even though he's been wrong many times before, to the point where I believe he's lost almost every bit credibility that he had in the crypto space, I still wouldn't call him a 'liar'.

I am not inclined to dramatize the situation and when someone tells me that Bitcoin can fall to the level of $ 1000 for one Bitcoin, as a rule I’m very calm about this kind of information and forecasts, I don’t panic and don’t tear my hair out. In general, I am very phlegmatic about predictions.

Agreed. However, that was 2018. We should also be flexible audiences and know when the right time to laugh at someone and when to accept that someone might be right hehehe.