Bitcoin Forum

The 95% use a purely technical approach to speculation and investing, relying on articles written by their favourite crypto guru for their analysis. Bitcoin has been leading the crypto market higher over the last month, and as prices move higher so will the expectations of Bitcoin's future.

Most find speculation and investing hard. It's because we are just not wired to be good at it. Almost everything we think we should do will hurt, and almost everything we believe will harm us won't.

This behaviour retells the same old story, over and over again. The majority, get caught up in the hype and excitement and buy, always late to the party, without any long term understanding of the actual risks they are taking, bouncing between exhilaration and despair, checking for tweets, posts, and updates from their trusted guru.

Not sure from where that 95% number comes from, but I do know several people who use TA as their main technique when they trade, and they did it very well. I can certainly say that it works, though you can also argue that it might be a self-fulfilling prophecy most of the time, however, TA is used in a lot of markets including stocks markets. So it was there long enough, not explicitly made for crypto. In fact, most strategy or analysis relies on old-school TA thing like fibonacci, rsi, ema/sma and so on.


This doesn't mean TA doesn't work. It means they need to learn and stop being a follower.

I think it is fear that make people even when there is positive speculation, they fear to invest. Also because it is not like investing with a bank where you can see your debtor, the wife and children ;D, some traditional people won't invest.

There is no pedagogy behind it, most people repeat what their 'guru' said the day before, or they do what they are told. But there is no educational work behind it. As a result, many people find themselves in markets with serious deficiencies. To add, they usually have more than one 'guru' each saying different things + overloaded with the pseudo-analysis published daily

If the trading guru already prove himself on that field you can relay to him but if the trading guru always gives a fake a signal then that is the time not to believe with him, I do believe that TA really works it is just only depends on the view on the market.

Yes, technical analysis works.

But you cannot totally depend on technical analysis for trading regardless whether you trade bitcoin or Forex. You have to do fundamental analysis as well because in the history bitcoin price mainly drove through fundamentals. However, it's not possible to apply technical analysis for all coins. Coins with low volume and market cap which are listed only in one or two exchanges can be easily manipulated. Therefore, it is wise to take decisions for trading using technicals only for major cryptocurrencies which have a high volume and market cap such as bitcoin and Ethereum.

It depends on what you mean by "work". Common misconception is that TA is used to predict market prices, which it isn't. TA is only used to play the odds on your favor. TA is not like a magical crystal ball that makes you magically know what will happen to the markets.

Also, as far as I know, TA is a lot less effective on the cryptocurrency markets due to the lower liquidity and higher chances of whales skewing the prices.

Technical analysis are made as reference in making a future strategy. These analysis does have a strong basis and indicators will tell you what's the current happening. Because of that, traders can somehow anticipate those things that is close to happen.

But it doesn't mean they are right. It's just that their decision are purely with basis and not just a random thoughts.

Crypto is volatile and even the most well detailed analysis sometimes spoiled and destroyed.

By understanding crypto price behaviour in the long run, we can somehow add some spices to our technical analysis in order to increase our winning chances.

Technical analysis is helpful and effective for those who have the skills to apply and observe the market. I don't actually use it or believe in different speculations. Most of the speculators nowadays are unreliable and might just bring confusion. I would rather trade the normal way without too much complications.

Technical analysis is very important for one to make a trading decision because relying on fundamental analysis a lone may lead you to make a very wrong trading decision that you will leave not to forget for making such a wrong decision. It is always good to consider both technical and fundermental analysis before making a decision on whether to buy, sell or to hold.

No offense to technical analysis, but this crypto market the rise and fall of prices can be predicted if people follow:

The coin Ann thread

The twitter coin

The discord coin

The telegram coin

The reddit coin

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TA certainly does work, but not always. Patterns don't always play out the way you might expect them to, especially in cryptocurrency, but it's definitely better than nothing at the very least. Indicators and TA have helped me out many times in the past by helping me anticipate future price action that might've gone against any open positions I had, but they definitely should not be the only thing you use to trade. You can still be significantly unprofitable in trading if you're disregarding other important parts of trading like minimizing potential risk (which many struggle with).

The development are possible for analysis and it will be technical and fundamental both are important for everyone and if you want to take the profit for your work you need to plan everything previously and this time it will be improved and important for everyone.

Technicals and luck. ;D

If you both then maybe you will have a larger percentage. No one could foretell the market so you would be relying on those.
If it does work accurately then we might be all rich here and never bother to answer questions anymore.

Hype might also be a factor but not as always. It could also led to a trap that will just make you lose more than risking into another low risk coin. Example is Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For me the people who just make their own decision based on others and just invest when they see prices come up and just flow others like lambs to slaughter, where they lose their money because of it, if are just following what others tell you to do than you are not cut for this industry, because you need to learn and know what it is all about in order to make your own decision and people are lazy and just want an easy road to success, and if you really do tahn you would know better than to just invest when the price is high and freak out when it starts going down.

Though I don't know where he got the percentage but more or less the number is high.
Yes, TA has long been here even before crypto was born.
But to add, TA doesn't work for most projects like pumpndump, masternode with high ROI, and the likes.
No need for TA here but mere familiarity of the project and the trading behavior. They are here for short term profits and of course for dev's pockets.

This is a very acute observation, and it's a crucial one to understand for anyone who wants to succeed in the markets. Technical analysis does work (at least a good deal of the time, when applied correctly) but it's doubly effective when combined with a keen understanding of market psychology.

The bit from Warren Buffett about being fearful when others are greedy......it's a truism. Successful traders will tell you: when the market seems exuberant and can't possibly stop rising, it's probably time to sell. And vice versa.

Technical analysis is just a means to speculate price of crypto  but its hardly efective now has the crypto space has been mostly controlled by whales of which in return controlls the price of crypto.  A good trader should not just tarde based on Technical analysis, but he should also consider other factors if hw really wants to succeed

in the cryptocurrency field we don't go with the same equipment for long time because it don't it is stable for long time so technical is also one of the useful equipment cryptocurrency field but not in all the time

You are definitely right, we accept that technical analysis is a part of trading speculation and I think you can't rely only on this you need more tools or technique how could you speculate with the right guessing. Timing, is a good practice in trading if you have this you can earn more profit when you are in the perfect timing of trading when you buy and sell or just picking a good coin which is easy to trade.

It is not bad in relying to the article provider that you trust and use their information's as your basis to make a good analysis for your trading.
But if you will rely to technical aspects only then there is big chance that you will create a mistake someday.

Speculation and investing is very hard because we are staking our hard earned money. If we fail to correctly speculate then we lost our money in which most of us really want to avoid in the first place. It is better that you will compile all the necessary resources so you can do a better speculation like the technical aspects, experience, knowledge, voices of other traders and etc. 

hmm, Most of the case technical  works smoothly. But sometimes when any miracle happens by the whale their is no analysis works that time. But I will suggest people as a trader not depends on only technical analysis during trading.

This may apply to very small altcoins but never liquid markets like Bitcoin or Ethereum.

It's a common misconception though, probably because when people lose money trading, they get emotional and they look for someone/something to blame. They assume their trade must have been correct, if not for these dastardly, manipulating whales!

And I'm not saying whales don't exist, but the market runs them over sometimes too. They certainly don't control it. What I'm saying is, markets are unpredictable, and most people don't know how to trade in that context. Good traders are grinding out a 50, 60% win rate on trades, not reading crystal balls. Since newbies don't use proper risk management, they lose a few trades and lose everything. Then they go blaming the whales.

Technical analysis on the crypto currencies are not that much accurate yet because of very less data availability and its having more rapid growth year by year so it is impossible to predict the rate as well how it will be in the next year.So just stick with your own analysis rather than manipulated by others analysis which might bring fortunes for tham but nothing for you.

Well, technical analysis works a lot in speculating where the market is heading too, though it's not cool to make use of only technical analysis when trading or wanting to place a trade, it is also necessary to make use of fundamental analysis, one thing I do so well in knowing where a coin price is heading to is to check the event happening around that coin, once you see a good event happening, then you can jump into the market to make profit.

technical analysis is an opportunity. so we have to see where the price opportunity will go. we try to remain consistent with the framework that has been made. do not love your position if the market is not in accordance with our analysis, cut loss is an important choice, but for that requires greatness

The technical analysis will not always work, especially if we are in unpredicted situations in the market.
We are difficult to analyze the market, and we don't have any clue about what will happen in the next hours.
But we could prepare if the worst thing will happen in the next hours by keeping analyze the chart, the line, and the price in the buy order and sell order, so then we can decide what we need to do.
But I am sure that when the technical analysis does not work, we could use the other analysis to determine the price and the trend so we could still get a sign even for just a small sign.

If you have been trading in the stocks, commodities and forex market you will agree with me that market do follow a particular pattern and no matter what happens those patterns most be retraced. It is the same thing in cryptocurrencies market and why you see it that it doesn't work is because you have not identified the technical pattern in trading.

From my years of experience in bitcoin and the trading world I can clearly say that it works to a point. Some stuff like support levels and resistance levels are really important and they do play a role in the price but some more technical stuff like bollinger band or macd and what do work to an extend but sometimes fail when something unexpected happens.

For example, when a big whale buys a lot or sells a lot there is no technical thing that can predict that. That is why it is quite important to know that you might get a good profit out of doing technical day trading as long as nothing unexpected happens, if everything goes according to the plan then you will make profit and be happy but if something happens that wasn't in your plans then it can go south very easily.

Yes I can also confirm that and I'm thinking that is when trend is taking over the market. At this time, almost all the technical indicators won't work. The but st thing to do at this time is to exit the market.

Even though technical analysis doesn't work in crypto trading, but it is very important. There are instances when technical analysis helps in making important decisions during trading.

TA's is commonly used and I wont really argue on that one but even using up these things on forex/stocks/indices it doesn't give you the guarantee
of success but somehow using up these indicators would really be a helpful thing on your part.It might not give assurance but it will give you the odds
on being profitable,you cant stop people on using it since we do have that kind of mindset that following other signals and technical might work out.

Technical Analysis works just fine especially if one is taking small profits. However, one should rely on only TA. In order to be a complete winner, it should be used a combination of it and other things such as News and knowledge of Upcoming developments etc

I guess you haven't used it if you say it doesn't work but somehow it does and of course it is very important for a trader.
It may not give you complete success in trading but it is one of the most commonly used strategies to all traders out there.

Technically it can be useful if luck is very good for you and yes technical analysis is very necessary for someone to get used to everything by combining other sources of information from the hottest cryptocurrency news, don't underestimate technical analysis because it might be useful in the future and might increase one's knowledge, indeed crypto market it is very difficult for most people to guess, but positive news can pump in a short time.

Yep, i kind of agree with you guy. Actually each way we use predict the market movement all bring its own function that may support us while we are in the market. All of them, however, definitely do not work all the time. Because yep crypto is inherently volatile, we even never know what will happen with price after our prediction. If TA works all the time, maybe no one gets in loss at all, and they all even choose TA to predict the market all the time without thinking.In short, in order to reach fruits in cryto market, we need to combine many kinds of ways to predict market price, don't just focus on only TA.

Technical analysis works very well for those that use it genuinely; especially for a day trading,because it will be very had for TA to really become useful for long term investment, only FA works better for that.

Don’t think most of the speculation you see in this forum and on other media forum are based on TA, in fact few of those speculations are done through TA while majority of them are just guessed number, someone just picking number randomly based on what he believes in his heart without backing it up with any analysis.

They don’t even analyze the market sometimes to speculate whatever figure they throw to the public, that is why we should not always follow every speculation we see without confirming It ourselves.

I think TA is working but it can't be accurate 100% especially there are numerous indicators that maybe not suitable with the market condition, but at least TA could increase your speculation accuracy, many traders rely on the TA to make decision and its important part for traders to decide to sell or to buy

No price analysis will be 95% accurate for it just a means of examine the market and we both know that what will determine the market directions is the level of supply and demand in the market. This is why I believe every price analysts that base on TA can't be a successful trader. Besides, I believe mostly in FA and like the OP said "This behaviour retells the same old story, over and over again." Is time we think outside the box.

Can't really do technical in trading. Usually i only see coins that have big volume, and pick buy or sell near wall. So my buy order can executed and sell it below wall, so nothing block it. Sometime it is works, but pick a coin still hard for me.

maybe this is need luck in each our trading, personally i said it very risky .we don't know our buying level on safe price or not.maybe analizing chart could help us to identify best price.

Yes,it works most of the time when you apply all the indicators and closely watches the market movement in very short time frame but not all the time and also manipulations can completely changes the technical analysis of individuals so don't trust them all the time and also don't take huge risk based on your analysis.But when you stick with fundamental analysis then there is no need much of technical analysis.

Technical analysis doesn't apply to crypto the same way it does to the stock market.  Sure you can draw some useful comparisons but this market has much more manipulation and you never know when some crazy whales will come along and dump the price.

It is necessary to monitor the dynamics of changes in the price of the coin before buying it. Technical analysis does not always work, so it is necessary to study exactly what is happening with the coin at the moment.

Its good for the long term trading but not important for people who trade the crypto currencies too often.But its still better to know the potential of a coin before trading so we that no need to change the coins too often and no need to worry if we are unable to trade our cryptos in short term if there is an emergency situation.

Well, to tell you the truth, I have never relied on technical analysis, when I had my beginnings in trading I followed many influencers and the truth was that they did not hit, there was nothing I could do, I always made the same lines, the same triangles, all the forms that they invented and nothing.

Then because of that I lost a lot, although my investments were not big, but it hurt me to lose 0.001BTC, Then I concluded that the technical analysis should not obey any triangle or any kind of form of chartist figures.

That is why I started reading a lot of books and there was a Youtuber that guided me and I admire him and he has my respect because he is the person that helped me understand the market, his name is AARON LUJAN, he is of Venezuelan origin and applies all the laws of Wyckoff's and Livermore's theory, and with those teachings I learned to understand the market.

It is also one of the reasons why many traders fail and think that the crypto market is rubbish and fraud. Meanwhile, there are still some very successful people and they have bought houses and cars.
That is the difference between those who calculate and do not know how to calculate. Anyway, it's a long-term problem and we can't fix it. :D

Having an idea about in technical analysis is pretty much advantage if you know how to understand the situation in the graph mate.
It is actually an advantage dude as a traders. But its not that easy also to have it, it needs hard work and time to spend with it. And I can assure
it is very useful and can make a millionaire in a span short period of time.

Yeah agree, because we know that price changes don't occur because of just one factor, there are many others factors that affect prices, start from manipulation, economic conditions, issues that happens, and many other thing. Predict prices not only from TA by reading candles, but there are many other things you can do to predict the price so it will be more accurate

As a trader, we don't  rely on speculations only. I'll admit that at first, I don't have enough courage to trust my own TA that is why I tend to followed some crypto enthusiasts which makes  my tradings a failure due to misleading predictions. But no one is impossible, I've searched useful indicators. It helps a lot and I do trust my own TA now with of course relying on everyday news about crypto.

TA helps us a trader for guidance on how to eventually enter and exit the market at the right price. It will also be beneficial if we combine it with the other strategies to further confirm our tradings . Some are paying signal groups but for now, I strongly believe in my own TA.

fundamental and technical analysis works as it had been followed by most traders. how the forex market works where the fundamental and technical analysis is also used also works the same way as the market all follow the golden ratio. you just have to decide which to use in different situation, funny because i myself doesn't do that. well i have trade using the indicators of tradingview which works only for me as the long term holder.

They do work, but not in the hype market now, traders can get more correct prediction with TA if the market is stable.
Now, it seems like we aren't seeing a stable price, it's more on pump now so we cannot predict the right movement.

When people are hype or they got FOMO, TA would be useless, best thing to do is to ride with the price trend and enjoy it, TA will work soon
once correction starts and price starts to calm down its movement.

All these article providers /news/ online media sites are still doing the same thing as using technical analysis, just like you would see in Cointelegraph  there is always technical analysis for the top cryptocurrency in the market. And they also offer news as well. I do know that there are people who don't support the news part cause they think that news are not a good thing to rely cause they can be deceiving. There are deceiving news, but it is up to you to find a site that is reliable, then when you see a news you think would have impact on the market, you can stay by the side and watch it to see what happens and know which action to make next.

Yes it's working but I suggest to don't depend to any signal that you can't have any assurance that they said is true make your own analysis its really hard to trust any one you can learn it if you really wants it to make your investment in great outcome. Not all signal is good so be careful.

Of course, it cannot be 100% accurate because if it was, there would nothave been other available strategies to complement its function. Technical analysis works a lot, at least 80% for most trader that are on a short term trade.

If you hear people complain of it not working, it’s because they don’t know how to use it, before I became perfect in TA too, I found it really difficult to use and I could almost break my system sometimes, when studying it and not getting how to read the chart, but one thing long term investors needs to know is that it is very necessary to mix both TA and FA together if they are to get accurate forecast.

actually anyone when in crypto does not only rely on understanding reading news articles and so on for analysis. can be done with his own thoughts so that the analysis techniques of their work can be fully implemented

A trader with an indepth knowledge in both technical and fundamental analysis will always have an edge over the market as you said. 
Just like forex fundamental news moves the market invariably the price of the  instrument or stock traded which is similar to cryptocurrencies trading.
Price Action, charting analysis plus few indicators had proved to work on a long term trading all theses are based on TA.

All experienced, professional traders deal with technical analysis. They never work without it. The other thing is the TA for the beginners - they simply do not understand how to read it. Suppose, we all need to learn to use it.

Yes, it does but not most of the time. I remember the death cross that was formed before the bear market and then the golden cross which is a sign for a bull market which is currently happening. Those pattern for technical analysis just tells if it's going bad or good but things can still go unexpectedly.

In the crypto market, we definitely have to understand technical analysis and if not, you will be eliminated by the rigors of the market. Value investing is not one of the good strategies here, it can make you poor early if you don't realize this.
I used to follow Warren'sism and invest like him in the crypto market. My 10 deals have all collapsed. it was worse.

Using technical and fundamental analysis as references when making a decision process will be better. Indeed, the technical itself will work but surely, it will not work as expected all the time. Even using these two methods, technical and fundamental, there will be times when our decisions are wrong. That is the consequence that we must face.

Actually technical analysis is very helpful for traders to predict the next price, but in crypto technical analysis is not always successful, because of the news that suddenly appears and messes things up

I think it is better we depend more on these factors than to rely on reading candles on TA. I have seen so many charts in the past few weeks that bitcoin started this bull run and no one out of them has successfully match the value they predicted and the value the market itself released.

All these predictions that I see are basically assumption and numbers picked randomly, I think other factors like the ones you mentioned are really the ones we should look at for us to accurately make the right decision or near the right decision. That is why I like holder, they don’t speculate as much as short term traders does, they just wait to see the end value which is the ATH before taking profit.

It can still be used as patterned to follow, the guide of technical analysis can give good anticipations, but you still need to have other sides of factors
that served as your basis when you place your investment, increasing your chances to earn while following those early sentiments of the market.

You can build strategy and take your call with good guidelines after reading system that you think that will help you for much successful investment.

It actually doesn't work if you'll never seeing that analysis worth nothing. Even we have that market volatility but still, we can use that TA in our daily trades. Unfortunately, not all TA's are accurate, it sometimes falls into a big opposite with the market and making ourself adoptable to the marker will give us a way to help it out from losing.

  Technical analysis is one of the most appropriable aspect we can used to work and speculate a good outcome on trading. Thus, it difinitely important on making profits, because it can tend to create liable deliberation for every consequences.

I was not that good with technical analysis, but further through my friend began to concentrate on technical analysis. Truly the trading following the technical analysis gives good results than just waiting for drop and investing and selling when the market grows little high. Different charts with different representation is available, learning the entire charts easily makes you a pro trader.

While it is true there is manipulation going on in this market to think the level of manipulation of other markets is smaller is a mistake, as far as I know there is only one limitation to technical analysis and that is that you cannot apply it to markets with low volume, but once a market has enough volume regardless of its volatility and the manipulation going on you can apply technical analysis and make money with your strategies derived from it.

Technical analysis skills doesn't alone make you as pro trader but once you find how to apply those analyzed chart into the market might help but didn't believe them too much as well because sometime it will go in the wring side as well.

It works sometimes but it doesn't work all the time. It depends on the day, just to give an example when bitcoin is looking like going up and goes down most people lose money but they do realize that it suppose to go up anyway so that this new going down means they can buy even more and wait for that go up.

Many people and I mean MANY people bought bitcoin at 6.5 thousand dollars before November happened because they believed the price would go up, instead it went down to 3.2k and they realize that everything was still looking good on bitcoin and it should go up anyway so they bought even more and then bitcoin eventually went up to 8 thousand dollars and more which means those people who bought at 6.5k and even more afterwards now profited a lot.

If you think bitcoin will go up then buy it, even if it falls keep buying, do not lose hope, it will work out in the end if technical shows for it.

But that is a misconception of technical analysis, it seems some traders have the mistaken idea that it must work all the time and that is not true, just look at the weather forecast, it is never completely accurate but it gives you an idea of what it is going to happen during the next day and week, technical analysis is the same, it cannot tell you accurately what could happen 100% of the time but it will in many scenarios and that is very valuable for the trader that can accept its limitations and work around them.

Most people still do not understand how to use TA only for one reason: they do not spend their time learning this stuff. It is certainly, needed. Without Technical analysis, more mistakes can be made.

Yes, it's true, TA does work. But in my opinion each market has a different percentage of TA strength. I think TA is more suitable for the forex market and the FA is more suitable for the crypto market because crypto itself has a higher fluctuation than the forex market. To be honest, so far in my opinion FA is more suitable than TA, and so far the average person has become a FOMO.

 Those investing into a coins using technical indicators to analyze the market before investing should also have some knowledge on fundamental analysis' principles. A bird cannot fly with one wing and that is how it is in trading because technical analysis is not enough to make you, make successful trading and to some extent that is why many investors and traders used both.

Fundamentals is the most important, every trader has to learn about it in every coin they are investing.
TA on the other hand are for traders who like to bet in the market for short term, they need it most as crypto is very volatile, with TA, that could help them a picture of what will happen in the future, if they sees some opportunity in their favor, that's when they initiate the order.

Now, to the question if it works, of course it does, but not for every trader as wrong TA leads to wrong decision making.

Technical analysis is really effective for those who know risk management. I know a friend, he learned about technical analysis in 2015 and started trading BTC in 2017. he has too much experience to date, but he still can't know how risk management.
Although the chart is very good to buy, he still buys many tokens and gets 5% losses out of 16 BTC. He did not place a stoploss order and it was a common mistake for new traders.

For professional traders, technical analysis works for them.

I have followed a youtuber that is  expert on technical analysis and what he is always saying is the positive side and the negative side. He always based what he is saying on the charts but he is always saying 2 situation. The bad and the good side so I think technical analysis do really work but not all the time.

Technical analysis works if you know how to use it. Many traders have misconceptions about technical indicators. Usually, it helps us only to guide wether the market is in our bias. But in case it don't work this day, it never works for tomorrow. Reminder, it is only a guide to execute the plan. Do not give all your decisions from TA.

Yes technical analysis works a lot and not only for pro traders alone, it all depend on the method of chart you chose to read, we have some indicators that are very easy to use while some are really comprehensive and can only be fully understood by pro traders, but in as much as TA functions properly, we still cannot completely rely on it alone, the best way to have a successful trade is just to have TA mixed with other trading strategies, and most especially fundamental analysis, these two work hand in had more for most successful traders, be it long term trader or short term trader.