Title: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: ars.petrovich on July 23, 2019, 01:21:34 PM Hello. I want to share with you the interesting statistics that the user Aleks_sr laid out in the ru local.
Original: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3899973.0 Bitcointalk registration statistics I think it will be interesting for newcomers to know how the forum has changed and changing from the moment of its foundation to the present. Started with 2017 as the most indicative. 2017
2018
2019
100 000 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=100000) user has been registered April 14, 2013, 11:49:44 PM 500 000 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=500000) user has been registered March 31, 2015, 05:46:08 AM 1 000 000 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1000000) user has been registered May 11, 2017, 09:12:46 AM 2 000 000 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2000000) user has been registered April 03, 2018, 10:30:32 AM 2 500 000 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2500000) user has been registered 08, 2018, 01:26:27 PM This post will be updated as information is updated. Thanks you. this topic was was created a year ago, so I did mistake. Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4685601.0) Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Febo on July 24, 2019, 10:54:02 AM Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment.
Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: AdolfinWolf on July 24, 2019, 12:27:45 PM Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment. I've been thinking about this as well. It seems like the interest in bitcoin hasn't or isn't increasing nearly as much compared to the previous ATH. But... Most of the people that signed up during that bull run were A. bounty hunters from (mostly) 3rd world countries, and B. 90% of the people that signed up never made a single post. So what interest was really displayed here.. Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: logfiles on July 24, 2019, 12:35:04 PM Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment. I've been thinking about this as well. It seems like the interest in bitcoin hasn't or isn't increasing nearly as much compared to the previous ATH. But... Most of the people that signed up during that bull run were A. bounty hunters from (mostly) 3rd world countries, and B. 90% of the people that signed up never made a single post. So what interest was really displayed here.. Most of them were looking to spam and probably farm accounts too. I think most have realized that it's so hard to do it under the merit system Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: rosezionjohn on July 24, 2019, 01:34:33 PM It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. I don't know about this. I started in crypto early 2017 but I did not register here until October. The interest when I joined was not so much in bitcoin but interest in making money from airdrops. Many of the airdrops back in 2017 would require hunters to register and comment on their ANN. Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: tranthidung on July 24, 2019, 01:46:13 PM What a plot!
Code: . list, abb(30) Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Indamuck on July 24, 2019, 02:27:14 PM So many accounts register that don't even make one post though. The stats make this forum look a lot more active then it truly is. Factor in how many people make multiple accounts and the number of actual new users is kinda low.
Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: malevolent on July 25, 2019, 03:27:38 AM 2 500 000 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2500000) user has been registered 08, 2018, 01:26:27 PM *December 08 Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment. It was bound to happen, the supply of people interested in cryptocurrencies isn't limitless. There's also competition in the form of discord/reddit/telegram/twitter/facebook. It'd be better to compare real cumulative volume across all cryptocurrency exchanges to get a clearer picture of actual interest in Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies. BTW, forum ad stats also give a rough view of forum activity: https://bitcointalk.org/adrotate.php?adstats Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: tranthidung on July 25, 2019, 03:58:16 AM Data taken from the OP, then converted.
Assumption: I assumed that those statistics are for first days of months. Code: . list Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Natalim on July 25, 2019, 05:11:47 AM Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members.
Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Pffrt on July 25, 2019, 06:58:54 AM Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members. Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167703.msg51936212#msg51936212)). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Febo on July 25, 2019, 10:32:31 AM Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Today there is less then it was in November last year. So much for those that expect new ATH any moment. I've been thinking about this as well. It seems like the interest in bitcoin hasn't or isn't increasing nearly as much compared to the previous ATH. But... Most of the people that signed up during that bull run were A. bounty hunters from (mostly) 3rd world countries, and B. 90% of the people that signed up never made a single post. So what interest was really displayed here.. We are far from new ATH. We are now still in end of 2015 or early 2016. Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Saidasun on July 25, 2019, 10:56:06 AM I was actually expecting bigger fluctuation during the time Bitcoin boomed and fell back down again. It would be interesting to look at the data in which people signed up during the boom of Bitcoin and how many users are still active several months after. Whether we are retaining users because they are interested in discussion of Bitcoin or because they wanted to get in on the action and get rich and as soon as it dropped down again they bailed.
Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: The Sceptical Chymist on July 25, 2019, 12:34:35 PM Good stats. It shows how much interest there is out of crypto space about Bitcoin. Interest, yes, but I'm sure a lot of the registrations are alt accounts looking to participate in bounties and campaigns.Normally I wouldn't give out merits for a data compilation like this, but I found this interesting and never would have sought out the numbers on my own. Thanks to OP for compiling them. I'm not surprised about the 2017 data since the registrations increased as bitcoin shot toward its all-time high. There probably were a lot of people being drawn in just out of interest based on what the price was doing--and after the crash, during the time when bitcoin was stuck in that $3500 range, registrations went down significantly. Makes sense. We are far from new ATH. We are now still in end of 2015 or early 2016. Given how volatile and unpredictable bitcoin is, we're really not that far away. It's quite possible that bitcoin could shoot past $20k at some point this year (but I'm hoping it doesn't).Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: tranthidung on July 26, 2019, 02:24:10 AM I check back my post history, and found something for you, that relates to the OP.
Time Series on monthly statistics of forum (new users, new topics, new posts) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071903.0) Plots And that one:1) New members and new topics A quick overview. It seems that monthly statistics on new members and new topics tend to hit peaks each two-year period. 2) New posts As I promised yesterday, I made some quick descriptive analysis today. Notes: It's not exact intra-month registered accounts over years due to days on which theymos scrapped data. However, we can assumed those figures are for intra-month data. ABSTRACT (1) 50% of observed months have intra-month registered account range from 2311 to 27790 (the interquartile range); (2) 50% of observed months have intra-month registered account above or below 10432 (the median); (3) The intra-month registered account fell 91.6% from its all time high in 2017 at 238400 to 20046; whilst the bitcoin decreased nearly 83.9%. (4) The demotion on Junior Members in September 2018 probably caused intra-month registered accounts fell considerbaly later months. (5) The difference in means of before and after periods (cut-off timepoint is Sept. 2018) is -63.6%. Time-series plot I don't know where I snapshotted the image, due to lack of thread's author, LOL. Still found it and will post link of the thread later (if I can find it). If you can help, please help me to find the thread. I actually spent around 15 minutes or more to check back the first 80 pages of Merit & new rank requirements (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2818350.1620) topic. 80 pages made within 3 days after the start of merit system, most of them are pyramid quotes. Honestly, my fingers got hurted due to over-scrolling computer mouse, so I gave up for now. Wholy shit, pyramid quotes! Scanning pages again, still not found on page #130. ::) Someone else's thread similiarly describes what the time-series plot above shown. ;D As the chart shown, total monthly registered accounts in recent months dropped dramatically to the median and mean of the year 2015. I believe that it is right time to say "Thanks theymos, merit system works and actually effective control spammers!" Basic statistics: - Mean +/- standard deviation: 22200 +/- 34774 - Median (interquartile range): 10432 (2311 - 27790) - Min - max: 3 - 238433. Interquartile range (from p25 to p75 in raw result table) Data interpretation: - 50% of observed total monthly registered accounts (just assumed the dataset is for exactly monthly data) ranges from 2311 to 27790 (the interquartile range); - 50% of observed months have total registered accounts above 10432 (the median), whilst the rest 50% of months have figures below 10432. Code: . tabstat regacc, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s) Data source was dumped by theymos there: We're at a local minimum, but registrations jump around a lot: Code: +---------------------+---------------+ Statistics over years In both medians and means, the year of 2018 has been the highest year with its median and mean of monthly registered accounts are 66895 and 64782, respectively. - The median means that 50% of months in 2018 have total registered accounts above 66895 or below 66895. - The interquartile range for 2018 is 38393 to 88373. It means 50% of months in 2018 have figures in range from 38393 to 88373. I always use median and interquartile range for descriptive statistics because they automatically exclude effects of outliers data points. Code: . tabstat regacc year10 year11 year12 year13 year14 year15 year16 year17 year18, /// Percent changes of intra-month registered account: The figures decreased 91.6% when bitcoin fell 83.9%. It gives us a potential causal inference that implementation of merit system and new rank requirements have bigger effects than the falls of bitcoin. One more finding, the intra-month figures after September of 2018 (Junior Member demotions) fell significantly than the before period. I think it make sense. Detail calculation presented below. Code: * BTC price The means of before and after Sept. 2018 are 80179 and 29190 (respectively) The percent of difference is 63.6% Code: . tabstat before after, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s) Code: . di (80179-29190)*100/80179 Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: stadus on July 26, 2019, 06:50:42 AM Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members. Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167703.msg51936212#msg51936212)). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Pffrt on July 26, 2019, 07:35:39 AM Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members. Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167703.msg51936212#msg51936212)). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Natalim on July 26, 2019, 08:15:08 AM Great job, this stats are necessary for advertisers in the forum, that's why I can say signature campaign will always exist in the forum due to the kind of exposure they will get from millions of members. Not much really, other than signature promotors, bounty hunters, the member would drop significantly to 10% in my opinion (less than 1% as per actmyname (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5167703.msg51936212#msg51936212)). I am too agreed with his logic behind it. The forum was created to spread, support, sharing knowledge about bitcoin but how much of us doing that or holding at least 1 BTC? I doubt the ratio would then be 1% of the current amount.Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: tranthidung on July 28, 2019, 10:09:13 AM I made my analysis here: Assumed monthly statistics on registered accounts of bitcointalk.org (2009-2019) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5168990.0). Below is abstract of my analysis, if you want to get full details, please visit my thread.
ABSTRACT (1) Despite the rise of bitcoin to around $14,000, monthly registered accounts in last few months are too far away from all time high at 238433, in Dec. 2017. (2) Minimum and maximum are 3 and 238433, in Nov. 2009, and December 2017, respectively. (3) 50% of months (from Nov. 2009 to June 2019) have total monthly registered accounts in the range from 2611 to 24472 (the interquatile range). (4) 50% of those months have total monthly registered accounts above or below 10691 (the median). (5) The lowest and highest medians (of months for each year) found at 148 and 66895, in 2010 and 2018. (6) From peaks on 20/12/2017, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts decreased 91.3%, and 81%, respectively, on 15/12/2018. (7) Since 15/12/2018, BTC close price and monthly registered accounts increased 159%, and 7.8%, respectively, on 1/6/2019. * Details of points (6), (7), please read the second post of this thread. < ...> Plot: Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: Alex_Sr on July 28, 2019, 01:23:47 PM Thanks for the translation, but it was created a year ago:
Statistics of user registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4685601.0) This topic is a double! Title: Re: Statistics of registrations on Bitcointalk 2017-2019 Post by: ars.petrovich on July 31, 2019, 02:16:36 PM Looks like you're right. I apologize for the duplication of the topic, I did not find it before I made my translation. Probably my topic should be removed or closed? I ask the board of moderators.
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