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Title: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on March 16, 2014, 01:03:56 PM This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year.
tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down, the power consumption must go down, or the price of BTC must go up, a lot. Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions: Code: GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055 In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Continued in next post... Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on March 16, 2014, 01:04:15 PM Over the last year the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on March 16, 2014, 04:44:00 PM Cool!
OK, so, assuming efficiency doubles... we can halve the cost of bitcoins produced in our heads pretty easily... Just to be crystal clear, you are assuming 25 btc per block with no transaction fees right? Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on March 16, 2014, 04:46:15 PM Also, it's interesting to keep in mind that these are variable costs... and that the capital costs are quite significant.
It would be interesting to do a calculation that lumped amortized capital costs in together with the variable costs to get a better sense of much bitcoins costs to produce in practical terms. (clearly this would be much more subjective... but as long as the parameters were easy for people to play with...) Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on March 16, 2014, 08:02:07 PM Cool! OK, so, assuming efficiency doubles... we can halve the cost of bitcoins produced in our heads pretty easily... Just to be crystal clear, you are assuming 25 btc per block with no transaction fees right? But, these numbers already assume the current best case efficiency and assume that the entire network is only burning 1J/GH. This is not the case. The network currently burns a lot more than that because not everyone has the most efficient, up to date, latest and greatest miners. See Greg's thread here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281279.0 which shows that the most efficient miners on the market are at about 0.8 J/GH plus overhead which is why I used 1 J/GH as a best case estimate. Yes, in the assumptions I show 50,400 BTC per adjustment period. Each adjustment period is exacly 2,016 blocks so these numbers assume 50,400 / 2,016 = 25 BTC per block. I do not take fees into consideration because they are small compared to the block reward and I am trying to calculate the USD and energy cost of producing new BTC. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on March 16, 2014, 08:14:21 PM http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation
Shows the 2008 worldwide power generation at 2,311.4 GW (20,261 TWh of energy). If the current growth rate continues then one year from now the entire Bitcoin network will consume a minimum of 29,072 MW or 29.072 / 2,311.4 = 1.26% of all electrical power generated on the planet and it will cost a minimum of $15,747 to produce each new BTC. Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost So... I am betting on a leveling off of the growth rate this year. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on March 16, 2014, 08:15:36 PM I follow ASICMINER pretty closely and they are coming out with 0.35 J/GH miners imminently. *shrugs* That's not confirmed until someone has a working miner in front of them... but I wouldn't confidently exclude the possibility. I think we will probably see 0.1 J/GH sometime in 2015.
Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on March 16, 2014, 08:25:05 PM I follow ASICMINER pretty closely and they are coming out with 0.35 J/GH miners imminently. *shrugs* That's not confirmed until someone has a working miner in front of them... but I wouldn't confidently exclude the possibility. I think we will probably see 0.1 J/GH sometime in 2015. Sure, if either of those things happen then the numbers will adjust accordingly. However, I have to wonder why the 0.35 J/GH specification has not been included in Greg's thread. Perhaps he has stopped updating it? If you have a link to an actual spec and you can post it in that thread then maybe we can get him to update the OP in that thread. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: pdawg on March 16, 2014, 08:26:57 PM This is why the next 12-24 months will be very, very interesting for BTC. I do think we are already seeing a leveling off to a certain degree of hash power, probably somewhat related to the recent price drop which affects for-profit farms (i.e., powering down if price is below a certain threshold). But the very large farms are getting equipment and electricity for very cheap so that scenario does not apply to them unless there is a severe price crash (which I don't see happening due to the broad adoption phase we are currently in). I can't help but believe that BTC value will sky rocket due to the raw cost to mine and the lack of new supply being introduced into the marketplace.
Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on March 16, 2014, 08:28:41 PM I follow ASICMINER pretty closely and they are coming out with 0.35 J/GH miners imminently. *shrugs* That's not confirmed until someone has a working miner in front of them... but I wouldn't confidently exclude the possibility. I think we will probably see 0.1 J/GH sometime in 2015. Sure, if either of those things happen then the numbers will adjust accordingly. However, I have to wonder why the 0.35 J/GH specification has not been included in Greg's thread. Perhaps he has stopped updating it? If you have a link to an actual spec and you can post it in that thread then maybe we can get him to update the OP in that thread. Here are the chip specs: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=438359.0 Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BorisAlt on March 17, 2014, 03:46:37 AM Burt, could you re-compute please for 0.35w/h case?
Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on March 17, 2014, 04:15:22 AM Burt, could you re-compute please for 0.35w/h case? I think you can just multiply all of the numbers on the right by 0.35 Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mwizard on March 17, 2014, 04:21:59 AM I find the initial assumption of this thread that there would be a continuing 23.92% difficulty increase completely unrealistic.
I have 2 reasons. 1) There are no obvious technical reasons to expect large hash rate improvements in the next year. This time last year the first ASIC systems where shipping and it was obvious to everyone that difficulty would zoom up. People were still using GPUs with a hash rate of one megahash or so. The entire world hashing rate in March last year was just 35 terrahash. The mining hardware world is now much more stable with no major technological advances expected. The only expected change are a movement to 20nm with some Joule/Gigahash improvements (as mentioned earlier in this thread). 2) The size of the hashing network is now so large it is difficulty to grow by such large amounts. Right now a 23.92% increase would require adding a petahash (1,000 terrahash) each day and even more in the future. It is just not happening. The sheer size of the current hashing network makes further growth more difficult. It would be a much more realistic to assume an average 15% increase till mid 2014 giving a hashing network size of about 120 petahash by June 2014, 10% average till the end of the year giving 300 petahash, and 5% during 2015 giving 500 petahash at some time during 2015. This still means enormous network growth with 20+ petahash being added per fortnight during 2015. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: seriouscoin on March 17, 2014, 08:19:38 AM Wow for a hero member, with activity over 1000 make a complete joke trial at projecting cost of BTC......unreal....
I cant stop laughing.... I will let someone explain to you a thing or two about production cost.... Hint: just taking assumed electrical cost of the mining network is NOT how you calculate the production cost of BTC. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BorisAlt on March 17, 2014, 10:51:55 AM Wow for a hero member, with activity over 1000 make a complete joke trial at projecting cost of BTC......unreal.... I cant stop laughing.... I will let someone explain to you a thing or two about production cost.... Hint: just taking assumed electrical cost of the mining network is NOT how you calculate the production cost of BTC. How do you calculate? Why will you let someone else to explain if you know? Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on March 17, 2014, 12:50:51 PM I am glad you got a good laugh at me and gmaxwell since his thread does exactly the same thing from a different angle. Obviously I was not trying to calculate the actual production cost. You seem to have missed the entire point of the thread.
Since you missed it others might also so I have changed the title and OP. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Bicknellski on April 10, 2014, 07:56:09 AM Any planned updates to the thread BurtW?
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on April 10, 2014, 03:01:38 PM What I do know is the difficulty is 1000x what it was last spring and the btc price is 5x higher.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on April 10, 2014, 06:35:09 PM There really is nothing new to report. The difficulty continues to climb at about the same rate and the price continues to go down. This wil not last. One of these things MUST give. Either the price needs to go up or the difficulty must stop going up. Eventually.
I will redo the calculations in a month or two. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: cloverme on April 10, 2014, 11:18:39 PM There really is nothing new to report. The difficulty continues to climb at about the same rate and the price continues to go down. This wil not last. One of these things MUST give. Either the price needs to go up or the difficulty must stop going up. Eventually. I will redo the calculations in a month or two. The other issue is that all bitcoins are equal, btc mined at a lower energy cost are worth as much as those generated at a higher energy cost relative to difficulty. Eventually, like you correctly predict, the market will not be able to sustain the two factors going in the opposite direction. I think the balance will occur when the supply of BTC goes down as difficulty rises or BTC will crash in price and large hashing farms stop mining because it won't be profitable. As a result, the hashrate would drop and difficulty with it. I think we are going to see mining have some sort of a correction this summer unless price goes up by 40%. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: bcmine on April 13, 2014, 06:16:33 PM Over the last year the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost What technology jump should allow the xbt to raise with 20% every month? Development of every technology step needs like one year. From 110nm In april 2013 over 55 and 28nm the 20 in June 2014. 14 nm ?? Intel having problems and is not the right deal for 2014. Numbers are highly unrealistic. Fullstop Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on April 13, 2014, 06:31:42 PM Over the last year the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost What technology jump should allow the xbt to raise with 20% every month? Development of every technology step needs like one year. From 110nm In april 2013 over 55 and 28nm the 20 in June 2014. 14 nm ?? Intel having problems and is not the right deal for 2014. Numbers are highly unrealistic. Fullstop Technology could stop now at 55 to 28 nm. But if they are shipping out 20 to 100k of machines a month thats a lot of hashrate. Title: Re: Projected Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on April 14, 2014, 06:49:57 AM Numbers are highly unrealistic. Fullstop I am glad you understand my point.Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: goose20 on April 15, 2014, 08:30:19 AM Humans are not rational beings either.
Many will keep mining at a loss with the hope btc will reach new heights. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: jamesc760 on April 19, 2014, 12:37:07 PM The hashrate has been rising, just not as quickly as originally estimated. Currently, 57.6 PH/s and seems to be adding about 1 PH/s a day. In 10 days or so, when the next diff jump comes, we will have about 68 PH/s, about 15% increase not 20 %.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Bicknellski on May 19, 2014, 02:55:02 AM There really is nothing new to report. The difficulty continues to climb at about the same rate and the price continues to go down. This wil not last. One of these things MUST give. Either the price needs to go up or the difficulty must stop going up. Eventually. I will redo the calculations in a month or two. Time yet for recalculation? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u92O8LSkezY I am wondering how Mining can be part and parcel of the Sustainocene. Currently the world uses 16 TW in 2012 and will need an additional 16 TW by 2050. How can mining become sustainable when the direction of mining is to ever larger mining centers? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on July 01, 2014, 08:04:45 PM UPDATE!!!
This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year. tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down, the power consumption must go down, or the price of BTC must go up, a lot. Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions: Code: GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055 In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Continued in next post... Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on July 01, 2014, 08:05:06 PM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Recalculating over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it is 23.45% and 11.41 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before November 1 Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on July 01, 2014, 08:34:50 PM I will redo this calculation in another 3 months.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Mined on July 01, 2014, 09:17:52 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible!
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on July 01, 2014, 10:09:11 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point. Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: philipma1957 on July 01, 2014, 10:39:17 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point. Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream. so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Mined on July 01, 2014, 10:46:49 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point. Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream. I believe half a joule is not unattainable for this year. 16nm is most companies' current focus, and some have designs underway for 14 and 10 (these are still 1+ years out, but it is something to note). Running some quick numbers though, difficulty will increase at the same rate if not even higher. Taking all of this into account I firmly believe we will be paying over $5000 for a coin in one year. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on July 01, 2014, 10:51:50 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point. Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream. so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ? per BTC. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: philipma1957 on July 01, 2014, 11:51:34 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! I am curious about your statement. How much more room do you think there is in this number? At 28nm everyone is getting about 0.8 J/GH. Going from 55nm to 28nm only reduced the consumption from 0.9 J/GH to 0.8 J/GH. Lets say we can make 18nm chips. The best case I would see is 0.5 J/GH and it would probably be higher.In other words I don't see any way to get another order of magnitude change in this number - only smaller incremental improvements at this point. Running the numbers at 0.5 J/GH is not a whole lot different than 0.8 J/GH and 0.5 J/GH may be a total pipe dream. so lets say in 6 months the network drops to .5 J/GH and the that is close to the brick wall. what would you predict price on JAN.1 2015 ? per BTC. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on July 02, 2014, 12:11:11 AM Yes, about that... I get 1174.66 * 2 = 2,349.33
BTW Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-12 00:40:37 UTC (110 weeks, 2 days, 4 hours, 30 minutes) But it will probably pull in even more. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: DrG on July 03, 2014, 06:49:02 AM And this is why home users except in cheap electricity areas will basically be subsidizing the network, there's no way most people in "green" Europe can mine at $0.10. All of California is 2x to 4 that right now.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on July 03, 2014, 07:17:48 AM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! More efficient miners can be made, but at what cost? For example if it cost a manufacturer $700 to make a 1TH miner at .7watts/gh efficiency today and it only mines 1 btc lifetime, how many people would buy it over $840 assuming the manufacturer only wanted to make a 20% markup. It already seems some farms are shutting down because the miners can not be bought at prices that can justify the cost of the machines versus the bitcoins they can mine in their lifetime, so they are buying coins instead or just stopping the mining and capital investment. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: philipma1957 on July 04, 2014, 03:01:27 PM Thanks for putting this together. I'm confident that J/gh will decrease enough to mitigate this, but the possibility that all mining hardware producers fail at making a more efficient miner is highly improbable (especially because there are so many now) but not impossible! More efficient miners can be made, but at what cost? For example if it cost a manufacturer $700 to make a 1TH miner at .7watts/gh efficiency today and it only mines 1 btc lifetime, how many people would buy it over $840 assuming the manufacturer only wanted to make a 20% markup. It already seems some farms are shutting down because the miners can not be bought at prices that can justify the cost of the machines versus the bitcoins they can mine in their lifetime, so they are buying coins instead or just stopping the mining and capital investment. small miners with spot setups could make out well. anyone own a beef jerky business ? any one know of a food dehydrator company that is look to sell its product? here is a great food dehydrator http://www.lemproducts.com/product/refurbished-stainless-steel-dehydrator/refurbished-products it uses 800 watts of power looks like it is a match for a pair of s-3's this is a good example of product synergy. better yet here is a kiln company for drying wood. a huge business chance right here right now. Just saying someone here in the usa dealing s-3s should talk with this company. they do electric heated kilns. http://www.novadrykiln.com/pdfs/NDK_timbertike.pdf Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on September 02, 2014, 01:37:44 AM Hey BurtW,
Maybe time for an update? :) -Chris Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 02, 2014, 04:28:44 AM UPDATE!!!
This thread is just a quick attempt to project the minimum cost per BTC over the next year assuming the growth in the hash rate next year matches the growth in the hash rate over the last year. tl;dr: either the growth in the hash rate must slow down or the price of BTC must go up, a lot. Using the following conversion factors, constants and assumptions: Code: GH/s per Diff 0.007158388055 In other words assuming everyone in the network pays $0.10 per kWh and everyone has miners that burn 1 W per GH/s (1 J/GH) then we can calculate the average production cost for each BTC over the last year as follows: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Continued in next post... Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 02, 2014, 04:29:02 AM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: philipma1957 on September 02, 2014, 05:00:43 AM Don't see the updates but diff is slowing from june 29 to now it is around 10% and the current predication from www.bitcoincharts.com is under 1%.
Price is at 470-490. At a .8 watt s-3 480 usd and 10 cents a kwatt it does not pay power at a diff of 114,000 we are at 27,428. So if we get 10% jumps in diff no miners turns a profit around April 1st 2015 At 15% diff jumps miners end it around Jan 21st 2015 Lastly at 20% the party is over on Dec 23 2014. So the next 5 months will be very interesting. I may do more coin holding then any other move. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 02, 2014, 05:17:00 AM So the next 5 months will be very interesting. Yes indeed.I may do more coin holding then any other move. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Cablez on September 02, 2014, 12:02:36 PM It will be very interesting to see if the institutional miners will learn what the small miners have known for a while, mining more quickly than imagined becomes a very marginal game and a money sink if you are not careful.
I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: RoadStress on September 02, 2014, 12:30:50 PM I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin. Luckly we have one big miner that is holding most or all of the coins and that is Bitfury. I suspect that the rest are holding less than 50% of what they mine. KnC stated that they aren't holding any. Damn tards! Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: philipma1957 on September 02, 2014, 06:54:23 PM I wonder also if the institutional miners will act rationally with prices being such. The desire to break even on initial investment I would think could lead them to sell even for a loss initially. I don't smell many holders in the big guys as they seem to be non-believers. Fiat still rules bitcoin. Luckly we have one big miner that is holding most or all of the coins and that is Bitfury. I suspect that the rest are holding less than 50% of what they mine. KnC stated that they aren't holding any. Damn tards! Well something else we agree on. Actually with the 3 big builders ; bitmaintech,bitfury,knc there must be over 100ph self mining. Why should they do anything but mine. I think the top ten builders could own 160 of the 210ph mining right now. All they need to do is limit growth under 4-6% and mine. I make that statement with the following in mind : power at 4-8 cents a kwatt , gear at .6-1watt a gh and btc at 480usd. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 02, 2014, 07:05:26 PM I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate:
Code: Average Average Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 02, 2014, 07:06:59 PM Can they build at $20-25 GH though?
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 02, 2014, 07:07:36 PM I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Code: Average Average Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: dropt on September 02, 2014, 07:49:01 PM I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Code: Average Average Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 02, 2014, 07:50:04 PM Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall. Very good point.Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: philipma1957 on September 02, 2014, 08:05:40 PM I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Code: Average Average Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall. yes going from 2ph to 4ph is no where close to 200ph to 202ph. one is 100 % diff the other is 1 % diff yet both are a 2ph in gear jump. Also you need cheap power a 1 watt machine means 20 mega-watts for 20 ph. So for the network to jump from 200ph to 220ph you need a new powerplant small one but a power plant none the less. so to do a 20ph jump the plant below needs to be built (in the metaphorical sense for an analogy ) http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-11/departments/managing-the-plant/repowering-a-small-coal-fired-power-plant.html So down the road when and if we get to 400ph 10 percent is 40ph and means 2 of the above plants would need construction. If BTC does not crash and burn growth will slow. Or should I say power availability cannot keep up with the asic builders ability to build asics. What does it mean for BTC> wish I knew. But I am buying coins more then gear. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mwizard on September 04, 2014, 01:46:28 PM I find the following numbers most interesting. It shows a statistically significant, small, slowdown in build rate: Code: Average Average Because it is becoming less profitable to mine. Or sell unprofitable machines to the public. Or each additional machine added signifies a smaller and smaller increase overall. yes going from 2ph to 4ph is no where close to 200ph to 202ph. one is 100 % diff the other is 1 % diff yet both are a 2ph in gear jump. Also you need cheap power a 1 watt machine means 20 mega-watts for 20 ph. So for the network to jump from 200ph to 220ph you need a new powerplant small one but a power plant none the less. so to do a 20ph jump the plant below needs to be built (in the metaphorical sense for an analogy ) http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-11/departments/managing-the-plant/repowering-a-small-coal-fired-power-plant.html So down the road when and if we get to 400ph 10 percent is 40ph and means 2 of the above plants would need construction. If BTC does not crash and burn growth will slow. Or should I say power availability cannot keep up with the asic builders ability to build asics. What does it mean for BTC> wish I knew. But I am buying coins more then gear. The total electricity used for Bitcoin mining is trivial when compared to worldwide power generation. The total worldwide Bitcoin network only needs about 220 Megawatts for mining. A single typical large generator puts out 600 to 750 Megawatts and a typical power station would have several generators. So I would not worry about electricity producers not being able to provide power for ASIC miners. For example the Three Gorges dam complex in China has 32 generators each of 700 Megawatts. So the total worldwide Bitcoin mining network is equal to about 1% of the output of that one generating complex. Admittedly the Three Georges dam is a larger than average generating plant. As you know China is the world's leading generator of electricity and has the most generating capacity (1,200,000 Megawatts - CIA fact sheet). A comment on the link to the 20 megawatt plant referenced above. This is a very small plant and appears to have been mothballed since the above 2007 article. http://www.arpapower.org/lamar-repowering-project-plant-studies-2/ Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 04, 2014, 05:25:51 PM This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price. As the price of Bitcoins goes up then network can "afford" to spend more on power.
Note that power consumption is a function of price not mining efficiency. Mining efficiency only affects hash rate and difficultly - not power consumption. For example, we cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Nagle on September 04, 2014, 06:41:02 PM This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price. There seems to be very little relationship between Bitcoin mining difficulty and price. In the last six months, difficulty has increased by a factor of 7, while price has declined a little. The cost of mining does not drive price. Price drives the level of mining activity. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 04, 2014, 06:59:51 PM This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price. There seems to be very little relationship between Bitcoin mining difficulty and price. In the last six months, difficulty has increased by a factor of 7, while price has declined a little. The cost of mining does not drive price. Price drives the level of mining activity. Total network power consumption is a function of price. Mining difficulty and hash rate are a function of mining efficiency. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mskryxz on September 04, 2014, 07:01:11 PM This is all true at the current Bitcoin price. However, power consumption is a function of price. As the price of Bitcoins goes up then network can "afford" to spend more on power. Note that power consumption is a function of price not mining efficiency. Mining efficiency only affects hash rate and difficultly - not power consumption. For example, we cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon. Here is the math behind it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble: $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW. This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet. So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so. Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption: P = (6(50/2e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW] where: x = exchange rate [USD/BTC] e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1) f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour] c = cost of energy [USD/kWh] g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio] we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC. In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions: x = $500,000 per BTC f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras c = $0.10 per kWh g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Great info! Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Wexlike on September 04, 2014, 08:04:00 PM I love this thread and all this number crunching. Awesome work !
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on September 06, 2014, 01:31:57 AM Wow, your latest calculation about the price within different era's is really insightful!
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: chriswilmer on September 06, 2014, 01:48:31 AM Clearly the next step is to model amortized hardware costs. I would think that those will never become negligible. Perhaps it could modeled as some multiple of the electricity cost... for example, maybe the amortized hardware cost will always be twice the cost of power, so that the "apparent" cost of electricity is actually tripled.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: anton000 on September 11, 2014, 02:30:45 AM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 BurtW: Im a correct in assuming that these costs are just for power/electricity usage. Other costs, such as the average price of mining equipment / THs isnt taken into account? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 11, 2014, 10:15:09 PM So next September it will be 381 times harder to mine for BTC. Unless the price rises to $181,000 to make it equal to mining today. Something has to give.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: molecular on September 21, 2014, 01:59:07 PM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 Thanks so much for this. Yes, something has to give. If it's the price, some people will come out of the woodwork and say this is proof that "price follows hashrate". I will still disagree. If the hashrate actually goes down (like in 2011), at least part of the reasoning that "hashrate follows price" is supported (namely: "if price is lower than production cost, miners will switch off their equipment"). If nothing gives (bitcoin price is below production cost) we know: Either at least some miners are economically irrational or we're making wrong assumptions about either the production cost or the price miners are able sell at. Interesting times ahead ;) Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 21, 2014, 02:06:58 PM "We Are Fuc*ed" I repeat We Are Fuc*ed"
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on September 21, 2014, 04:27:30 PM "We Are Fuc*ed" I repeat We Are Fuc*ed" Lol I see it as a win win. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on September 21, 2014, 04:37:15 PM If nothing gives (bitcoin price is below production cost) we know: Either at least some miners are economically irrational or we're making wrong assumptions about either the production cost or the price miners are able sell at. Interesting times ahead ;) I wouldn't assume some miners are economically irrational, I'd think it would reflect more on the nature of proponents of Bitcoin and how they value it. Still this is another historic juncture. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: greaterfool on September 21, 2014, 08:49:10 PM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 Thanks so much for this. Yes, something has to give. If it's the price, some people will come out of the woodwork and say this is proof that "price follows hashrate". I will still disagree. If the hashrate actually goes down (like in 2011), at least part of the reasoning that "hashrate follows price" is supported (namely: "if price is lower than production cost, miners will switch off their equipment"). If nothing gives (bitcoin price is below production cost) we know: Either at least some miners are economically irrational or we're making wrong assumptions about either the production cost or the price miners are able sell at. Interesting times ahead ;) I love the technical analysis, and it's good solid math, but there is a flaw I keep noticing (think I commented on another BurtW thread about them a while back...) The global energy supply available over time isn't a static number as measured today - it will increase annually, and by a decent amount each year (in 2018 we could potentially have an additional 10% more power available globally than we do today.) In the interest of adding more fundamental data, here's a link to the U.S. Energy Information Administrations projections for US energy production and imports forecasted through 2021. http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=AEO2014&subject=0-AEO2014&table=1-AEO2014®ion=0-0&cases=full2013full-d102312a,ref2014-d102413a The price of energy could also spike due to heightened geopolitical volatility playing havoc with supply and demand. (E.g. do you think it will be easier or harder to get oil from Russia/Iraq/the Mid-East in the next four years than it is today, or will things just stay the same? Will we bring more renewable energy online to make up for potential scarcity of any existing energy sources? Enough for a surplus? Will there be no scarcity at all?) "May you live in interesting times." :) Keep the data coming BurtW, this is awesome. It might be worth it to correlate the price of BTC with the price of, for example, the NYSE Energy index (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/nye.id)... Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Driv3n on September 21, 2014, 09:15:31 PM Very interesting thread and analysis. It's crazy how much the cost to produce a bitcoin is increasing. Will definitely keep my eye on this thread.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: marcus_of_augustus on September 22, 2014, 02:46:40 AM I want to see some good analysis of the thermodynamics behind all this ...
... and if you cannot bring entropy, the second law and the irreversibility of information flow into it I'll probably dismiss it. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: wilth1 on September 22, 2014, 04:23:53 AM it's also worth considering that many small timers might continue mining and hoarding at a production-price loss whereas mfger/megafarms that sell to cover payables simply would not.
perhaps difficulty increases will slow and the price will naturally follow your analysis, albeit at a more graduated pace? regardless, it will be very interesting to see what happens in the coming months Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: greaterfool on September 22, 2014, 01:50:18 PM I predict the rise of the portable ultra efficient "my office or co-working space won't notice the power draw" miner :) There will be a sharper divide between people who are paying for power at scale and those who are using surplus power with no additional realized costs. Make friends with people who have long term contracts in data centers with unused power and empty cages, is my advice.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 22, 2014, 04:27:03 PM To answer a question that has been asked a few times. This analysis only used the electrical power and estimated cost of that power. The cost of equimpment is ignored. Basically the cost of equipment, infrastructure, etc. will effectively reduce the power consumption of the network so this is an estimate of the maximum power the network will rationally attempt to consume given the price of BTC. In practice it will not consume these numbers due to these other costs factors.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: zvs on September 22, 2014, 04:35:07 PM The urban heat island around Shanghai has increased in intensity by over 40% in the last 2 years.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mikerbiker6 on September 22, 2014, 08:38:19 PM very interesting, +1.
If we will wait a few more months miners will not let go of their coins this cheaply, so they will sell higher. But efficiency gets higher and more expensive miners get pushed out, leaving the super efficient miners. So this means that it will still take many months. But hodl on. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Stratobitz on September 23, 2014, 11:54:54 AM Great thread. Thanks BurtW for this fantastic analysis on the numbers that drive Bitcoin.
I think it would be impossible to argue that the next few months will be very interesting. In many ways the tables are now turning against the miner manufacturers. Increased difficulty coupled with a sliding price will place the miner companies in a terrible place, where they themselves can no longer use their rigs to mine prior to sale of the miner itself, and also rendering the miner unsellable. A mining rig company like Bitfury, and also a large Bitcoin holder could in effect deliberately push and hold BTC prices down and put tremendous pressure on their competitors, if not shut their lights off for good. Bitcoin will survive. Not so sure about the mining rig producers however. Strato Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mmeijeri on September 23, 2014, 12:02:48 PM I don't think the miner developers are in a bad position at all, I expect retail mining to disappear and mining companies to mine with their own hardware and also sell hardware wholesale to data center operators. They've already made the investments necessary, now they only have recurring costs to deal with. They have their mask sets, now they can cheaply order new wafers every now and then.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Finksy on September 23, 2014, 08:49:13 PM Just thought I'd try to contribute something. Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while. Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic:
http://i57.tinypic.com/rbkv7l.png Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: ruins on September 24, 2014, 03:46:12 AM So next September it will be 381 times harder to mine for BTC. Unless the price rises to $181,000 to make it equal to mining today. Something has to give. why it will be harder to mine for BTC? you mean the price will be down and few people mine? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: ruins on September 24, 2014, 03:55:40 AM Humans are not rational beings either. Many will keep mining at a loss with the hope btc will reach new heights. well, BTC does have a promising future. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 24, 2014, 06:07:53 AM So next September it will be 381 times harder to mine for BTC. Unless the price rises to $181,000 to make it equal to mining today. Something has to give. why it will be harder to mine for BTC? you mean the price will be down and few people mine? The difficulty level to mine seems to gets harder every 13 days Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mikerbiker6 on September 24, 2014, 09:15:36 AM I changed my mind, a growing competition doesn't necessarily force miners to sell their coins higher.
A growing competition will push out less efficient miners, so the miners are left with higher efficiency that can sell their coins even lower. there is no lower boundry, more and more people will fold so the remaining miners will make more bitcoin and can afford to sell low.(since they made more coins than before). So a higher difficulty or higher competition will not always lead to a higher BTC value. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: molecular on September 24, 2014, 07:10:25 PM I changed my mind, a growing competition doesn't necessarily force miners to sell their coins higher. A growing competition will push out less efficient miners, so the miners are left with higher efficiency that can sell their coins even lower. there is no lower boundry, more and more people will fold so the remaining miners will make more bitcoin and can afford to sell low.(since they made more coins than before). So a higher difficulty or higher competition will not always lead to a higher BTC value. correct. The hashrate (cost to mine) will adapt to price, not the other way around. Bitcoin mining is a weird beast.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mikerbiker6 on September 25, 2014, 06:05:26 PM well said molecular
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: keystroke on September 25, 2014, 06:54:53 PM Looks like the current difficult bump a few hours from now is about to be about 15.7%.
Edit: Can we update the table based on this data? It would be cool to have this on a website where the data is brought up to date in live time. :) Something like bitcoinclock.com but better. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Opnsrc on September 25, 2014, 09:12:05 PM Love this thread. Going to keep a close eye on it.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: BurtW on September 25, 2014, 10:24:57 PM Looks like the current difficult bump a few hours from now is about to be about 15.7%. I will update this again some time in October. It really does not change that much on a month to month basis since I am looking back one year and forward one year.Edit: Can we update the table based on this data? It would be cool to have this on a website where the data is brought up to date in live time. :) Something like bitcoinclock.com but better. A real time version of this, updated after each difficulty adjustment would be totally cool. Someone could do that. If anyone wants/needs my Excel spreadsheet as a basis for the web site just give me a PM and I will send it to you. If this was done on a web site I could stop doing it manually and that would be totally fine with me. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: AnonymousEconomist on September 25, 2014, 11:54:27 PM This thread is excellent so far!
It would be great to have more data. Like a chart with the price of bitcoin overlayed on top of price to mine bitcoin, but over the course of the history of bitcoin. If that is possible...? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mvalley on September 26, 2014, 12:02:17 AM Based on the hashrate increase and how consumers are still buying over priced miners, I now think that overall mining will go negative ROI for a while until people realize that they are losing money. Home miners don't think like business miners and may not realize they are losing $ in small bits here and there.
So while the max hashrate/BTC calculations have value, I don't think many individuals will actually shut down if they already have the equipment. Gonna be a rough ride for a while. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: AnonymousEconomist on September 26, 2014, 12:26:13 AM Based on the hashrate increase and how consumers are still buying over priced miners, I now think that overall mining will go negative ROI for a while until people realize that they are losing money. Home miners don't think like business miners and may not realize they are losing $ in small bits here and there. So while the max hashrate/BTC calculations have value, I don't think many individuals will actually shut down if they already have the equipment. Gonna be a rough ride for a while. I agree with this. I also believe the typical home miner is more likely to hold onto his/her bitcoin. But I couldn't imagine the big mining farms selling at a loss. They are at the top of the bitcoin food chain. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: keystroke on September 26, 2014, 12:33:22 AM Based on the hashrate increase and how consumers are still buying over priced miners, I now think that overall mining will go negative ROI for a while until people realize that they are losing money. Home miners don't think like business miners and may not realize they are losing $ in small bits here and there. So while the max hashrate/BTC calculations have value, I don't think many individuals will actually shut down if they already have the equipment. Gonna be a rough ride for a while. I agree with this. I also believe the typical home miner is more likely to hold onto his/her bitcoin. But I couldn't imagine the big mining farms selling at a loss. They are at the top of the bitcoin food chain. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: AnonymousEconomist on September 26, 2014, 01:13:33 AM Based on the hashrate increase and how consumers are still buying over priced miners, I now think that overall mining will go negative ROI for a while until people realize that they are losing money. Home miners don't think like business miners and may not realize they are losing $ in small bits here and there. So while the max hashrate/BTC calculations have value, I don't think many individuals will actually shut down if they already have the equipment. Gonna be a rough ride for a while. I agree with this. I also believe the typical home miner is more likely to hold onto his/her bitcoin. But I couldn't imagine the big mining farms selling at a loss. They are at the top of the bitcoin food chain. I would guess around 20%. But that IS just a guess. With no scientific backing whatsoever. Title: Re: Infrastructure reinvestment costs Post by: wilth1 on September 26, 2014, 06:15:03 PM Does $100,000 USD seem reasonable for manufacturers' 1 PH/s infrastructure costs at present? Any data that indicates how this is declining over time?
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 26, 2014, 08:05:29 PM 1000TH for 100k
$100/TH is hard to do If they can do it then they are making a killing at sales: KNC Neptune 3 = $2000 TH Bitmain s4 = $750 TH Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: eoakland on September 26, 2014, 08:41:53 PM hopefully it becomes very unprofitable--that way the corp farms stop mining the shit out everything
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mmeijeri on September 26, 2014, 08:43:26 PM hopefully it become very unprofitable--that way the corp farms stop mining the shit out everything Industrial mining isn't going to go away, and home mining is likely on its way out, just as happened with CPU mining and GPU mining. Just the free market in action. You can't just make free money forever. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: eoakland on September 26, 2014, 09:41:38 PM hopefully it become very unprofitable--that way the corp farms stop mining the shit out everything Industrial mining isn't going to go away, and home mining is likely on its way out, just as happened with CPU mining and GPU mining. Just the free market in action. You can't just make free money forever. you never know. if bitcoin falls enough--it will get to a point where these companies with big farms will have to turn off the power. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: mmeijeri on September 26, 2014, 10:02:02 PM you never know. if bitcoin falls enough--it will get to a point where these companies with big farms will have to turn off the power. Some of their power and the same goes for home miners. If they still have an edge on energy prices I don't see how home miners could hope to regain much "market share". I imagine there are some limited advantages that home miners have such as "free" space to store the mining hardware rather than a data center which costs money to run / rent, but only in small amounts. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: xstr8guy on September 26, 2014, 10:39:36 PM Based on the hashrate increase and how consumers are still buying over priced miners, I now think that overall mining will go negative ROI for a while until people realize that they are losing money. Home miners don't think like business miners and may not realize they are losing $ in small bits here and there. So while the max hashrate/BTC calculations have value, I don't think many individuals will actually shut down if they already have the equipment. Gonna be a rough ride for a while. I agree with this. I also believe the typical home miner is more likely to hold onto his/her bitcoin. But I couldn't imagine the big mining farms selling at a loss. They are at the top of the bitcoin food chain. I would guess around 20%. But that IS just a guess. With no scientific backing whatsoever. It should be pretty easy to deduce by looking at Organofcorti's hashrate chart. http://organofcorti.blogspot.com You would have to make some assumptions about how much of DiscusFish and GHash.io's hashrate is from their private farms though. And the other public pools would be mostly home miners since every large-scale mining operation should logically be solo mining. There are some pretty big players on some of the public pools though but they aren't in the same league as Bitfury, KNC, Bitmain and other ASIC manufacturers. So who's good at math? :D Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: wilth1 on September 27, 2014, 04:10:16 AM 1000TH for 100k $100/TH is hard to do If they can do it then they are making a killing at sales: KNC Neptune 3 = $2000 TH Bitmain s4 = $750 TH trying to estimate infrastructure reinvestment cost: hashrate increase * production cost per PH You could then deduct any retail sales from this amount relative to the total increase as a percentage. AM is now selling 1TH/s for as low as about 290 usd. with retail markup (roughly 100%) removed and all resulting profits considered, $100/TH seems fairly accurate Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 27, 2014, 01:47:51 PM While the ASM gen3 chips seem like a good deal, they are power hogs at 1.1 watts/gh
They will be outdated and unprofitable by November if the user has to pay anything over .10 electricity and other expenses. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: pennywise on September 27, 2014, 05:07:16 PM http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/
The China theory is one of the few that seems to makes sense of those competing trends. The idea is that some Chinese citizens see bitcoin as a vehicle for bypassing capital controls, which limit them to foreign exchange purchases of more than $50,000 a year. With Chinese bitcoin exchanges scrutinized by officials and with banks barred from servicing them ever since a crackdown in April, yuan-funded investment in mining could be an easier, below-the-radar way to obtain bitcoins and sell them for dollars. Is this happening? Well, we know a lot of the new mining equipment is coming online in China, where a large number of new ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) mining rigs are made. Sources have told us of large mining operations surreptitiously installed by employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in factories that enjoy state-subsidized electricity. In some cases, these people say, the rigs are even charged to the company as “computing equipment.” If the state’s paying for both your equipment and your power bill, the price of bitcoin doesn’t matter so much. Does anyone believe this? Could this be a possible explanation for insane difficulty growth for the past few month? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on September 27, 2014, 07:04:13 PM I think FREE or Little electricity cost is part of the reason difficulty has not dropped.
In addition there are still money stuck in the development phase from the last major investment phase (late 2013 early 2014). I expect a major shakeout of manufacturers by the end of year. Wont be many makers and suppliers in 2015 because there wont be any profit in making and selling them. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: AnonymousEconomist on September 27, 2014, 07:51:23 PM http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/ The China theory is one of the few that seems to makes sense of those competing trends. The idea is that some Chinese citizens see bitcoin as a vehicle for bypassing capital controls, which limit them to foreign exchange purchases of more than $50,000 a year. With Chinese bitcoin exchanges scrutinized by officials and with banks barred from servicing them ever since a crackdown in April, yuan-funded investment in mining could be an easier, below-the-radar way to obtain bitcoins and sell them for dollars. Is this happening? Well, we know a lot of the new mining equipment is coming online in China, where a large number of new ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) mining rigs are made. Sources have told us of large mining operations surreptitiously installed by employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in factories that enjoy state-subsidized electricity. In some cases, these people say, the rigs are even charged to the company as “computing equipment.” If the state’s paying for both your equipment and your power bill, the price of bitcoin doesn’t matter so much. Does anyone believe this? Could this be a possible explanation for insane difficulty growth for the past few month? This is very interesting. But i can't imagine this will remain true, as the cost nears extremely high numbers like August 2015's $10,000. I could be wrong though. They may just still continue, but just make less profit. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: lyth0s on October 03, 2014, 07:49:01 AM I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations.
Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: podyx on October 05, 2014, 12:24:45 AM When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Code: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1 A damn fucking shame that hashrate declined... Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on October 05, 2014, 03:39:09 AM A damn fucking shame that hashrate declined... Quite the opposite if you are in the business of propagating the network (i.e. mining)It's also way too soon to call it declining, but I think it is inevitable when the product costs meet market price. We're about to witness the start of Bitcoin is dead stage. - the part of the adoption cycle that generates Bitcoin proponents. ;) Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: keystroke on November 11, 2014, 04:10:15 AM I think this is interesting to look at again as the hash rate is going up again. Just saw a 10% increase and we are going to see another ~7-8% increase soon.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Opnsrc on November 13, 2014, 12:29:27 AM I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations. Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes. I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =((( Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: keystroke on November 13, 2014, 08:39:54 AM I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations. Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes. I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =((( I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network. (I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high ;)) Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on November 13, 2014, 07:56:29 PM I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations. Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes. I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =((( I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network. (I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high ;)) Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on November 14, 2014, 02:06:09 PM I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations. Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes. I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =((( I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network. (I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high ;)) Here in PA electricity is .09 base rate. After delivery and service final cost is .16 Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on November 14, 2014, 07:42:44 PM I love what you have done here, but I think there should be some adjustments to the numbers. Use $0.08 per KWH and 0.68W/GH. The numbers won't look as optimistic for us, but they are probably more realistic for near future calculations. Even the antminer S3 is already 0.78W/GH and the Antminer S4 gen will take it down to 0.68. As far as cost for electricity goes it can get pretty cheap in some parts of china where there is a lot of mining power and good contracts through the use of government officials. Even for a very urban area like LA, California the base fee is $0.08 for residents (which quickly scales up based on usage). Mid-west states can get a stable $0.08/KWH for agricultural purposes. I had to shut down all my physical miners the other day. Here in Massachusetts they just increased the winter power rates by 37%, went from $0.16 to $0.22 overnight =((( I think you deserve a government bailout. TBTNM - To Big To Not Mine Don't save the banks. Save the miners! Energy subsidy for all mining operations. Secure the network. (I promise this has nothing to do with keeping coin price high ;)) Here in PA electricity is .09 base rate. After delivery and service final cost is .16 Here fixer upper house sets you back $1,000,000 (http://www.crackshackormansion.com/) but we pay $0.0752 /kWh and soon we'll have increased capacity by an additional 1,100 MW hydroelectric dam so some industries will have much needed cheaper electricity. If you're using more than 1,350 kWh's you pay $0.1127 and need to move to an industrial area to keep the competitive rate. Just realised if I was mining at home I'd be paying a higher rate for 1/3 of my consumption :o Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: keystroke on November 18, 2014, 07:20:03 PM Estimated Next Difficulty: 40,355,658,265 (+1.90%)
Adjust time: After 10 Blocks, About 1.6 hours Things are slowing down. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on November 18, 2014, 09:05:33 PM The problem is: at this point in time they cant even make any asic equipment that doesnt lose at least 70% of its value in capital expenditure and running costs over its useful lifetime.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Finksy on January 20, 2015, 06:05:23 AM I think it's become quite clear that you can't predict things like hashrate and the mining network. There are too many factors that will influence it. Hardware advancements in efficiency will, however, slow down in the near future and along with them the depreciation of mining equipment. The question is, when old miners stop leaving the network due to inefficiency and the playing field is more level, will the price in BTC rise to accommodate the cost of mining at higher difficulty, or will more people simply pull the plug on mining altogether.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on January 23, 2015, 11:31:34 PM at the current difficulty, it costs about $200 CAD in electricity in Canada to mine a Bitcoin using Gen 3 asic hardware (market value around $280) - the latest hardware will do it at half the cost.
so given the new efficiencies of new hardware I think the cost to mine Bitcoin will increase moderately at the current BTC price until gen 3 hardware becomes obsolete over the next 2 -3 years, but then again market demand for the limited supply is a random wild card. a sudden increase in price will see large scale deployment of new hardware, and wild volatile pricing or low profit margins will tend to distribute mining hardware as hardware providers sell mining rigs to avoid risk. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on January 24, 2015, 01:00:01 AM at the current difficulty, it costs about $200 CAD in electricity in Canada to mine a Bitcoin using Gen 3 asic hardware (market value around $280) - the latest hardware will do it at half the cost.
But hardware is not free, a gen3 3 asic machine cost $280 in your example and electricity to mine 1 btc $200 = $480 for the first coin. Buying a $232 coin is easier. A gen 4 asic will cost much more than $280 even though it offsets the electricity by 30-40%. Examples: BTC at $232 price: 1TH machine at 1.0 watt/gh efficiency will yield .013 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $3 max) 1TH machine at .7 watt/gh efficiency will yield .37 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $86 max) Gen 3 machines are obsolete already not in 2-3 years. Gen 4 machines are lucky to last 4-5 months. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Korbman on January 24, 2015, 03:33:08 AM Examples: BTC at $232 price: 1TH machine at 1.0 watt/gh efficiency will yield .013 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $3 max) 1TH machine at .7 watt/gh efficiency will yield .37 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $86 max) Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here... Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: jamesg on January 24, 2015, 05:08:01 AM Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here... https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Usually helps in a pinch... Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on January 24, 2015, 07:02:01 AM Examples: BTC at $232 price: 1TH machine at 1.0 watt/gh efficiency will yield .013 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $3 max) 1TH machine at .7 watt/gh efficiency will yield .37 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $86 max) Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here... I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations. The fact cannot be disputed that the difficulty level has risen 47 out of the last 49 jumps. Over the last 10 jumps the average adjustment is increase of 4.9%, the last 20 jumps averaged 9.2% increase I only use conservative 3% in my examples. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: jamesg on January 24, 2015, 02:02:06 PM I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations. The fact cannot be disputed that the difficulty level has risen 47 out of the last 49 jumps. Over the last 10 jumps the average adjustment is increase of 4.9%, the last 20 jumps averaged 9.2% increase I only use conservative 3% in my examples. At the current difficulty, 1Th/s makes 0.01144 BTC per day. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on January 24, 2015, 02:51:41 PM I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations. The fact cannot be disputed that the difficulty level has risen 47 out of the last 49 jumps. Over the last 10 jumps the average adjustment is increase of 4.9%, the last 20 jumps averaged 9.2% increase I only use conservative 3% in my examples. At the current difficulty, 1Th/s makes 0.01144 BTC per day. At what efficiency is this asic and what are electricity costs? Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Korbman on January 24, 2015, 04:54:01 PM Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here... https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Usually helps in a pinch... Can't tell if that was a jab at me (for whatever reason), if you were trying to be helpful, or if you misread my post... Examples: BTC at $232 price: 1TH machine at 1.0 watt/gh efficiency will yield .013 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $3 max) 1TH machine at .7 watt/gh efficiency will yield .37 btc at .10 kw/hr and loss at .16 with 3% diff jumps (machine value $86 max) Calculating at the current difficulty, you may want to check your math here... I used current 43.9 Billion difficulty in my calculations. [...] What I was getting at was that you never stated the period of time used in the calculations (though 1 day, 86400 seconds, was assumed based on the first example), and your yield was a bit off. Going back to the math part: First example 1 TH/s, using 1 kWh, will (on average) generate BTC0.01143723 per day at a difficulty of 43,971,662,056, or roughly $2.65 @ $232/BTC. However, it will cost $2.40 (@ $0.10 per kWh) to mine those coins. Net income at this point is $0.25 per TH/s per day. A few things could happen that would generate a loss in this situation. Either, 1) Difficulty would need to be greater than 48,615,027,051. 2) The price per Bitcoin would need to be less than $209.84. 3) Energy costs would need to be greater than $0.11 per kWh. Second example 1 TH/s, using 0.7 kWh, will still generate BTC0.01143723 per day at a difficulty of 43,971,662,056, or roughly $2.65 @ $232/BTC. However, since this miner is more efficient, it will only cost $1.68 (@ $0.10 per kWh) to mine those coins. Net income at this point is now $0.97 per TH/s per day. A few things could happen that would generate a loss in this situation. Either, 1) Difficulty would need to be greater than 69,450,048,235. 2) The price per Bitcoin would need to be less than $146.89. 3) Energy costs would need to be greater than $0.158 per kWh. Overall, you're right; profitability is getting squeeze pretty hard, and the constant jumps in difficulty, while expected, don't help. It would only take ~5 jumps at 10% to kill off the profitability of 0.7W/Gh miner, and the less efficient 1W/Gh miner is more or less dead for the average user at this point anyway. Thankfully we've already seen a rise in 0.5W/Gh miners, with more efficient ones under development. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on January 24, 2015, 04:55:26 PM The best deal right now is probably the s5.
Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: World on January 30, 2016, 07:25:40 PM Burt,could you re-calculate please numbers to BitFury 16nm/0.1 J/GH chip?Thx
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.0;all Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Finksy on February 02, 2016, 08:28:10 PM Burt,could you re-calculate please numbers to BitFury 16nm/0.1 J/GH chip?Thx https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.0;all I'd agree, once we see the proof that this chip works at the spec they claim it does. Still no concrete evidence other than statements, or if it will be board level or ATW efficiency. Just thought I'd try to contribute something. Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while. Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic: http://i57.tinypic.com/rbkv7l.png Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns. Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency. When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15, 11.2e(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15: 11.2e(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40 11.2e(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: Adrian-x on February 10, 2016, 08:12:06 PM Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency. When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15, 11.2e(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15: 11.2e(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40 11.2e(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time. That's looking awesome. hopefully Bitfury hits there target and has a retail solution, it aligns with my upgrade cycle. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: World on March 16, 2016, 02:13:41 PM Energy Eaten By Bitcoin and what it mean for price by @bitcoin3000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_owNVdYZlg I estimate/calculate the market cap-to-TEEBB ratio and graph it over time in order to gain new insights into the historical, current, and future values of bitcoin. data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kesn0wWxE5NvQUz4QE5h8SVrpNeqNJIHqxUM3cakHaw/edit#gid=0 graph 1: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/235/market-cap-vs-total-energy-eaten-by-bitcoin-with-estimated-mining-efficiency/ graph 2: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/234/market-cap-to-teebb-ratio/ Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: samsonn25 on March 27, 2016, 05:31:34 AM Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency. When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15, 11.2e(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15: 11.2e(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40 11.2e(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs 7.0376e(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time. That's looking awesome. hopefully Bitfury hits there target and has a retail solution, it aligns with my upgrade cycle. Bitfury has never been friendly to the retail environment, even when they did share some of the chips they WAY overpriced it. They already have funding from major investors to have everything to build in the first place, selling to retail is probably extra runs from the chip and wafer orders, or older tech as they are developing the next gen. Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: keystroke on March 29, 2016, 12:29:00 PM Energy Eaten By Bitcoin and what it mean for price by @bitcoin3000 Very interesting analysis. Have you considered updating your model with more accurate numbers for electricity cost?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_owNVdYZlg I estimate/calculate the market cap-to-TEEBB ratio and graph it over time in order to gain new insights into the historical, current, and future values of bitcoin. data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kesn0wWxE5NvQUz4QE5h8SVrpNeqNJIHqxUM3cakHaw/edit#gid=0 graph 1: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/235/market-cap-vs-total-energy-eaten-by-bitcoin-with-estimated-mining-efficiency/ graph 2: https://plot.ly/~bitcoin3000/234/market-cap-to-teebb-ratio/ Title: Re: Projected Minimum Cost per BTC over the next year Post by: World on April 05, 2016, 08:51:53 PM Very interesting analysis. Have you considered updating your model with more accurate numbers for electricity cost? I am not the author.Alex did it https://twitter.com/bitcoin3000 |
