Bitcoin Forum

This is a new thread, a follow-up from a thread created a year ago (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4930584.0)


I've been active within crypto, nearing 6 years now. It is my passion to share my experiences, talents, wisdom and assisting others with wisdom and insight into all things related to crypto. Over the years, I've been involved in over 40 crypto and blockchain projects and have been friends with some of the biggest legendary figures known to crypto. I've helped coins that still linger in the top 20 and many more that have been in the top 100.

But, this thread is for my beloved Altcoin community on Bitcointalk, whom I vigorously watch, read, merit and occasionally comment on your threads.



I invite you and anyone to ask any question pertaining to cryptocurrency and blockchain.

The only types of questions i will not answer, are those specific to a crypto, questions like "What do you think about Ethereum?" "What coin are you investing in?" ... etc.

Thanks for this wonderful opportunity to ask you question tk808, my first question is pointing towards altcoins entirely, can bitcoin do all the talkings in crypto without altcoins? what do you think will be the fate of altcoins in few years to come? will next bitcoin halving have impact on altcoins? thanks

Thank you aswell, i do truly enjoy writing on bitcointalk.

In regards to Bitcoin and altcoins, the short answer is no. There have been quite a lot of threads asking about altcoins and Bitcoin, a good thread to see what others think (not only me) is this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187450.msg52552146#msg52552146

But essentially, Bitcoin has been co-existing with altcoins since almost the very beginning. One would be foolish to say that Bitcoin would be in the same place it is right now, without altcoins (strictly in terms of adoption). If Bitcoin's adoption is significantly lower, so would its marketcap and its network hashing power. Thus, in many regards to Blockchain tech, blockchain would of been a failure if there was no one interested in profiting or having an entrepreneurial spirit in trying to create something bigger and better. In return, not only have altcoins done good for Bitcoin, but with all that manpower, capital flowing in and involvement, came awareness. All that money ICO's used, all those memes, shitcoins, scams and everything you can imagine that has been spoken, done or etc, has only benefitted crypto as a whole, it's simply because of exposure. Many people did not get exposed to Bitcoin first, they got exposed to some random shitcoin or to some big news about someone becoming rich, losing everything or again, anything you can imagine. Think of it like this, whatever action any altcoin took, had an impact on making crypto bigger.

Can it do all the talking in this climate? Not really, no. Because Bitcoin is the gateway drug, once you understanding mining and the fundamentals of what Bitcoin is, business look to more sophisticated and intricate chains. Bitcoin only fulfils one niche, but the world has several desires and niches that technology needs to fulfill, that's where you get coins like XRP and blockchains like Ethereum et al. Bitcoin is the easiest to understand, it's the easiest coin to be synonymous with the word "Blockchain" or "Cryptocurrency," thus, for the leman, it's easiest to always talk about Bitcoin. But in reality, Bitcoin is just one part of much larger technical and potentially social revolution, in almost every fabric that shapes our lives.



The fate of alt-coins in years to come is going to be legitimacy, integration and recognition. Leading into your last question, I said this earlier this year, when mainstream adoption, coupled with Bitcoin's halving occurs (which mainstream adoption is well underway for Bitcoin btw), then you expect an explosion of growth (this is speculation still).*

I'm going to quote myself from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5176232.msg52653332#msg52653332 I just wrote this, it expresses many of my thoughts on this question and I don't really want to rehash it all:




From an economist POV, halving of Bitcoin's reward for mining blocks, with the same amount of energy being putting forth, ultimately values each Bitcoin greater. So the supply entering the total supply is being reudced, thus each Bitcoin in theory, should be worth more. More energy is being spent per Bitcoin and there's less of them entering the supply, thus the price is expected by many to change in a favorable direction.

Thanks for the opportunity, I have been active in Cryptocurrencies longer than you but I didn't pick any interest in Altcoins until very recently... My question is.. we all know the potential of Ethereum, it's past and present achievements (smart contracts, tokens), do you think that we have already seen the best that Ethereum has to offer or do you think that the previous achievements are just the tip of the Iceberg? We are reaching a stage where worldwide adoption is becoming more and more closer and I think the blockchains that would survive when that happens are those that can handle a large number of transactions and ethereum lacks this scalability presently considering the fact that it is built to handle just about 15 TPS.

I used to think it would be EOS but the recent spam attack they experienced that lasted more than a week has dissuaded me of that fact and let's not forget the fact that it's partly centralised to begin with... Anyways my main question is... Do you think we would be seeing a fully decentralised blockchain infrastructure soon that would be able to handle hundreds of thousands of transactions anytime soon?

You mentioned that you have been involved in 40 projects related to crypto/blockchain. Out of those projects, was there one that's into real estate? Whether yes or no, I would like to get your view on that. I feel that it's one area where blockchain could really be adopted and I've seen some projects that are still attempting to penetrate that market but there's no major progress yet.

Hey Bttzed,

Firstly apologies for the delay in response. I had this thread on watch with notifications, but they went to spam unfortunately.


None in real-estate. Real-estate blockchain projects are mostly all scams. The situation with "tokenization of industries" is in a miserable state, especially with smaller companies seeking to take their own route instead of partnering with the giants in the world.

This leads to a very fractured climate, where not knowing who to trust and etc. The only way this industry will succeed, is by 1-2 of these projects out 100s? becoming affilated with big providers that list properties and handle transactions for such. Partnering with real-estate agents is a big part of tokenizing real-estate. Concurrently, if a project is listing their own crypto and listing properties for 200k+, how is liquidity handled? Who would want a random crypto currency that has no liquidity for their house?

I understand this space is growing and there is definitely a lot of room and niche's to capture to fully run a legitimate business. But don't expect a start-up to pave the way or grow into a billion dollar company. If a real-estate or listing platform wants to do something like this and they find it more efficent and friendlier to their home-buyers, then they will implement it into their already existing industries.


Progress is being made in virtually all sections of tokenization. We're still a few years off from tokenizing properties or anything that's not a commodity being fully realized, implemented and accepted among the real world.

Hey Drai, Similar to the other post, a quick apology for the delay in response.



Ethereum from my perspective, is a usable crypto for everything; more so than bitcoin. DeFi, DApps and etc have been a highly popularized topic this year and the only platform that really can capture and have devs build ontop of a blockchain, is Eth.

Now, I do not personally believe Ethereum's time has come and eventually, as time progresses, I'm bullish in regards to Ethereum's valuation. In almost every regard, it's more friendly to users, than Bitcoin. The chain itself is highly adaptable and we've seen numerous of projects building protocols and etc on Ethereum. Almost every person I meet these days, perfers to get paid in ETH over any other currency, including myself. There's ultimately many reasons for this, but the biggest factor is the numerous of wallets available and how easy it is to send a TX, or recieve a payment, without going through most headaches. I know there are a lot of external services/wallets for BTC, but the nature of Ethereum makes it overall more accessible to an average consumer. This is my perspective ultimately and is purely opinion.


A quick quote from CryptoDiffer today, which summarizes Ethereum's ecosystem very well:





Ethereum 2.0 is what most are waiting for and that will address issues with salability. Ethereum's ecosystem as a whole as seen signficant updates and continued development interest over the years  - also real world business integration and affiliation, this will only grow due to the popularity of Ethereum as a whole.  (Read all about it: https://medium.com/better-programming/overview-of-whats-new-in-ethereum-2-0-cdf902e0220d)


In reality, I don't believe crypto will ever be as decentralized as everyone had initially thought. There's a reason for this, and that reason was due to equilibrium. If you're too far in off on the left side of the spectrum (decentralization, anonymity and etc) then you drive away interest, due to negative connotations. If you vere too far right (centralization), then you also drive away the appeal of blockchain in the first place. So the goldie-locks zone for cryptos is somewhere in between and for governments, businesses and etc to have enough trust in the people behind whatever blockchain was created.

In regards to EOS, I personally never found favor with it. Dan Larmier is a genius in many regards and I've had great admiration for what he's been trying to achieve, but EOS is only a fraction of what Ethereum will ever be, in terms of virtually every regard, aside from the technical sophistication of EOS as a whole. EOS is still probably 2-5 years off from actually being what it is supposed to be and what initially promised; by then it may be too late, but EOS will never truly die. Don't get me wrong, there are great advantages of EOS, it's just not that widely accepted; it's very niche currently.

Ethereum's value is derived on one fundamental principal (similar to Bitcoin) it was the first, most widely accepted and most usable blockchain in terms of being able to add to the ecosystem (via SC's and etc). The ecosystem, DeFi, DApps, protocols and enhancements in conjunction with Ethereum only strengthen Ethereum in the end.



There were a lot of opinion-based judgements here, but I truly feel that there is no other crypto that will ever match Ethereum in any regard aside from salability, TPS, anonymity and some other regards. Even then, Ethereum's devs and community recognizes this and are moving forward accordingly to address these difficult problems. These are definitely growing pains for Ethereum ultimately, but all indications are leading towards a favorable future.

how do you see the condition of ico ieo or any kind of new alt in the future, where almost all of these alts fail.
your speculation how.
because I see that you are active in the ALTcoin section different from many seniors who mostly focus on BTC.
your speculation? :)

ICOs and IEOs are just mechanisms to get projects funded. It's entirely on whomever is backing a specific project to deem it a success or failure. Mostly, this responsibility has been delegated to real-world investors, thus the amount of shitcoins isn't going away anytime soon.

The reason most alts fail, is due to factors that are often out of teams control. In conjunction, 80% of projects do not fundamentally know, understand or even how to maintain a successful crypto. Bringing in resources from the outside world, does not lend to a good crypto overall. Therefore, one of the most important factors is balance within teams. Some teams are more technically heavy, some teams are heavily community oriented; but a balance between both (for a start-up in this age) is a rarity.

There are only about 50-100 cryptos (if not less), that have any real shot of being around or successful 5-10 years from now; the common thought is the majority of blockchain and crypto's will eventually go away, or most engagement from teams will stagnant heavily (I want to make the distinction here that if a crypto is trading, a team can completely disappear, but that crypto could still be heavily traded, this was often the goal for earlier projects, creating a decentralized framework). In today's era, simply launching a coin will not be successful, therefore team's have to also present a business behind their crypto to further drive value and real-meaningful impact. The niches are saturated, this is why launching a POW coin, that is based on masternodes does not work anymore or lead to anything meaningful.


There is also problems with differentiating the intent of the team; which often many overlook. Is the team looking to create a decentralized system and then go away? Is the project going to be iterated on forever? Is the company leading down a path of profitability? Is the team reliant on their crypto for funding (by selling off supply). Nothing is infinite, thus resources are always finite for systems, teams and businesses who are not profitable. And believe me, only 5-10 crypto's to launch, are actually drawing a profit. Most businesses to launch make no profit and are reliant solely on their funding or selling off of their crypto.

Then we can get into discussions on how communities perceive the crypto, the token economics, lockups, investors backing the project and etc. There are so many discussions and topics to branch off what really and truly makes a crypto successful, but I personally won't have enough time to cover this very very heavy topic.


If you're gauging the performance of altcoins on the basis of this forum, then sure it's a good place to start, but there is infinitely more activity in the alt-coin space than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just Bitcoin, you know what it is, it won't change much in 10 years from now. Altcoin scene is consistently adopting, evolving and driving forward real progress and adoption. By having hundreds of teams trying to capture niches, we become in a position that they are actually all of crypto heavily. Yes even scam/shitcoin projects benefit crypto, in some regard, through exposure and through eyes who may not have otherwised known what a crypto was in the first place.

It's all a maturing process, it's evolution and you're witnessing it all. The most important takeaway, is DYOR behind any project. Do not settle for any bullshit or red-flag. Because in the end, what makes a crypto project ultimately successful, is adoption and useability. Without people, crypto is worthless. Without an adoption framework, crypto is useless.

There are niche cases where certain blockchains have yet to capture or realize, or blockchains that will be purely for B2B real-world integrations, but in the most general sense, crypto needs adoption, liquidity and etc; to be healthy. Price is everything, because every crypto and blockchain team are still heavily reliant on how well their crypto does on the markets, for their own motivation and to ultimately gauge performance.




In summary, most people and business teams have no clue what crypto really is or what they are even supposed to do with it. Sure you can theorize the applications and have a plan, but more than often there are hundreds of missing puzzle pieces that only the most educated among us understand. Crypto encompasses several areas in the real world, from psychology, computer science, economics, marketing and a whole host of other fields. If all are not met, then the crypto is more than likely to fail. If teams focus solely on real world, then their project is going to fail. If you focus entirely on crypto, your project is going to fail. Balance in every field, from understanding core crypto concepts and behaviors to real world adoption and use-cases.




this post is a bit fragmented, but I wanted to cover several basic ideas. There is a lot more information I could add and this could of been 5x in length; with a more coherent thought process. But I hope the takeaway is that, all core fundamentals need to be met in order to have a successful crypto. This takes both luck, strategy and highly experienced individuals who are incentivized or driven to make their project or crypto a reality. In most circumstances, this isn't the case. Hence the flood of shitcoins with novice and idiotic teams.

I see a lot of Projects trying to achieve the highest TPS, some are thinking this is the most important thing they have to do (Quarkchain is an example).
So do you think this is necessary while the TPS visa is only 4000 but it is widely used?

if only 5-10 projects succeed in making a profit.
what about other projects that have survived until now, where do they continue to maintain their project, without profit?
no need to all say top 100.



It seems like you are a really busy person out there  :D


yes I agree with this one, because bitcoin is only created as a means of payment and there is no development process other than that.
different from alt, which continues to develop through new coins that come out, although most of them fail.

indeed


most of what I see now is number 2, they only focus entirely on crypto.
and has no real project.
can you say an example of a project from the top 50 that has an implementation in the real world or has real performance in the real world.


ok, this is just my opinion if all the teams or projects do according to the criteria you mentioned earlier or it is a mandatory requirement to launch a project., Will there still be many projects out every day?

Hi tk808 since you know much about many flaws of real estate projects i think you should take your time to do research on Chellecoin project, i think their idea is different and something entirely new, i will gladly wait for your reply, thanks

I don't claim to understand the real-estate industry, but I do understand crypto tokenization of real-world commodities and (everything under the moon) and concurrently blockchain integration into real world industries. Again there are 2 sides to every crypto, the crypto/blockchain business and the business in the real-world. If somehow projects are in full force in both niches (specific to projects whom issue their own cryptos in the first place), then you're in the 10th percentile.

Sorry, this thread is not meant for a crypto review or overview to validate or discredit projects.  There are plenty of influencers and shills whom will gladly shill or give you a review of what you ask.

This is a very good initiative. I am sorry that I missed your earlier thread. Could you please explain why most or almost all new crypto projects are failing in all aspects?

Firstly, launching a crypto/blockchain on the basis of Transactions per section is a marketing stunt for most. There is movement in the direction of sharding, basically framgementing transactions into smaller computational sizes, to perform higher TPS. To my current knowledge, every project that claims unreachable TPS limits are:

A) Just technical hopes and dreams in a technical paper
B) Can only do this in an internal environment, not in a practical scenarios
C) None of these blockchains have ever been tested for even close to what they proposal in a real-world scenario.
D) TPS and scalability are inversely proportional to security and integrity of the network. (This point has some outliers, but this is a general rule of thumb for blockchains and real-world payment processors).


Visa Quickly

Lets talk about Visa, the golden standard that is so heavily emphasized for blockchain crypto projects, the mythical benchmark that crypto teams often highlight. Firstly, it's a misnomer to state Visa can "handle 3-4txp/s" this is their peak load and rarely ever meet this threshold. The estimate on an average day is roughly 1500-2k TPS for Visa.

Concurrently, there is an intensive infrastructure that's monitored 24-hours a day, but individuals to handle security, and integrity of the entire system, across the world. This is a multi-billion dollar operation and up-costs of billions of dollars (ofc customer support all the way down to tech) Src: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/V/visa/operating-expenses. Regardless, you get the picture.


Crypto Salability

It's been a while since i recapped on some information about TPS, since indeed most are theoretical. For reference, I did some background research to get the latest data (at least as recent as possible). https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=tps+of+cryptos+cointelegraph a very good article and I'll reference it below.

Again, crypto is still a very small fragment of all "transaction processing that occurs in the real-world" thus, most blockchains will never even see 100 transactions being attempted at any given moment. This also coincides with the fact that many claims are made, but very few of them are actually validated. There's a lot of misnomers in terms of "what teams claim internally" and what's actually achieved and deployed on their respective mainnets.

There's a lot of progress in this area, there's no doubt. But again, only a fraction of blockchains will ever succeed in the end; in the near future sure a chain can achieve high TPS. Therefore, licensing of their tech or incorporating it into real-world frameworks is the ultimate goal (or should be) for most of these chains, since they will never be able to capture any market share or real usability of their platform.


In short answer, no it's not important, but it may be highly important with IoT being incorporated into everyone's daily lives. For payment processing, Visa is probably deeply invested in blockchain tech and will launch their own blockchain as they see fit, negating the need for any external small, unreliable and untested blockchains that we currently know of. Bitcoin still transacts 60% of all crypto transactions, there have been hiccups, but lightening network is a step in the right direction and ultimately is the type of updates and implementations that will occur with all major blockchains in the top 20-30; again, negating any efforts from smaller blockchains.

The first step is for these chains to be incorporated or accepted/affiliated with a major business, the second is actually being tested in full, in a real world scenario, backing up any ridiculous claims. Until that's achieved, this topic is a senseless topic in many regards, but a good discussion to have.


I highly recommend just researching real-world industries, what supply chains, payment processors (outside of visa) can achieve, what really occurs with TPS, IoT TPS processing and etc. There's a lot of information out there, but knowledge specific to this topic is somewhat limited overall. But I hope in essence, the basic understanding is there's a big difference between theroetical dreams, integration in the real world and being actually capable of achieving what's been claimed, while keeping the inherent integrity of what blockchain represents; and not creating a fully-fledged centralized system.

6 years is a long time enough and of course, you have experienced various cryptocurrency conditions ranging from how crypto is still underestimated to the bull market and now the bear market. Hopefully, I can also get many experiences and knowledge here.

I want to ask for your opinion,
The latest news is that Coinfloor will delist all altcoins including ETH and BCH, and they stand for Bitcoin only. The reason is that Bitcoin is the only proven cryptocurrency.
What do you think about this decision?
Is the Bitcoin-only that has been proven? For, I think that so far, ETH is proven enough and it has been used in many transactions with many benefits.

News sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinfloors-ceo-explains-decision-to-delist-all-crypto-but-bitcoin-to-cointelegraph

Don't take the article at surface value, he's running a business. Clearly it's not in his benefit to focus on altcoins and may be easier to attract traders to a Bitcoin trading platform only (similar to what Coinbase's strategy was years ago). Either he's short-sided and pretty idiotic, or there's a clear intention and business strategy occurring.

In the end, a BTC focused only exchange has niches and in many regards is not confusing to get real-world traders on-board. It also gives him free publicity (which i suspect CT did this for free) and etc. There are also legal implications of listing cryptos, especially in the UK, with securities and all the legal stuff this year that been occuring. So he can cut his costs in regards to this. So it was a calculated business strategy to focus on core essential.

Anyone who disregards altcoins, knows little about what crypto or blockchain inherently represents: there's a reason Satoshi made Bitcoin open source, I don't believe even Satoshi was oblivious to the implications of knock-offs or further enhancements on what he created.


In Summary: Regardless, taking the article at face value makes this guy appear as an idiot. But, I don't believe the face-value of the article. There was a calculated move behind this and CEO just marketing his dying exchange, clearly he wasn't profitable from altcoins (he would of never de-listed them if they were) or was clueless in what altcoins to even list. Lastly, he can use altcoin listings in the future, when he has more capacity to examine some alts and their uses cases or for leverage, free publicity and marketing.


The CEO isn't trying to become a martyr to get his message across. He's trying to run a business and becoming profitable is his number 1 primary objective.

There is no such thing as an "emotional" move based on not liking something (in a good, successful business at least), everything you see or do has a calculate risk and benefit, everything. Even me being here, typing this, has calculated benefits for me. There is no such thing as a selfless act, or an act out of greater good in human nature; in one form or another, every action taken has benefited the individual who acted in one way or another (or was supposed to benefit the individual).

1) In terms of operational businesses, there are many that undergo regular periods of funding from outside businesses and corporations. So there is some nuturing from outside accelerators and etc.

2) It would be too early for an ICO conducted in 2016-2017, to have run out of funds in 3-4 years. Typical average around 20-50 million funding during this period. A lot of these projects may regularly sell off some their crypto for financing as well.

3) There are many decentralized projects, that are governed by a passionate dev or community behind such a project. These are passion projects, or projects that have legendary names. They will never truly die and their markets are still heavily thriving. Just because a coin is on top 50 mcap, doesn't mean that there's something working daily to propel the chain

4) It's important to make the distinction between crypto projects that inherently were meant to be decentralized and mostly have finalized code/infrastructure and projects that rely heavily on integration, business, adoption, marketing and etc. There's often a double standard, newer projects actually have to be active. Much older projects have the leeway due to the sheer adoption and recognition from legendary figures in crypto. So rules that apply to for example, an IEO that launched on Binance, has far greater expectations that lets say Litecoin. Ofc they are different beasts in many regards, but you get the point.



Sure, there are plenty. Ethereum, BNB, Link and etc.

Now there is a distinction to be made, implementation in the real world I'll consider it some fundamental integration among like Amazon's AWS or Microsoft's Azure, integrations as such. Technology is still in its infancy, so it will take time to fully the true potential and to utilize blockchains to the full capacity.



You can launch a project in any fashion you choose. I don't have a particular opinion on this, because there are so many methods to con people into investing or supporting a shit project that's launched. It's all on the users to do research into what really has been launch and to accept or reject that particular project.

The market will eventually correct itself. People will also eventually keep projects in check. Self Regulation & filtering of projects is occurring, at a slow pace, but it is occurring more so than ever.

As long as there's money to be made, projects will continue to launch to the end of time. This is an industry in itself, just like the clothing industry brands and etc.

I'm not quite sure of the context of your message, but there is significant progress being made virtually every minute, every hour and every day. Failing in the regards to price is the most frequent metric gauge for projects, thus most of the context of this writing will be made about failing prices.

There are no doubt growing pains and there's a lot of projects out there that are in it for the money or cash grab, even projects on Binance. No single entity, business or person is immune to failures, but it's the lessons learned from failures that helps propel this entire space forward.

When I look at the progress that's been made this year, the trends, the types of projects launch and compare it with 2016-2018, I see a maturing ecosystem. Are there still scams, yeah (and forever there will be), are there shitcoins.... yeah, are there bullshit technical projects... yeah, are there virtually any type of negative remark anyone can say... the answer is yes.

There's no denying the implications. Because with every action taken, that's a step into the future; in which no one knows the outcome of. No one can predict what will occur tomorrow or what the next big blockchain will be, or what will been the eventual perceived outcome of crypto, but in the end, there's no denying of what blockchain can do, what legitimate teams are doing to create the future of mankind.



About failing prices:

I'm not going to get too heavily into this. But, as stated above, the number 1 metric for investors, supporters and virtually everyone is how well a crypto does on the markets. There are many factors that are under the control of teams and many factors that are not. What type of: exchange, lock-up, sale price, funding goals, projected mcap, circulating supply, who holds the cryptos, what the road-map looks like, is there code written, is there transparency, is there transparency of funding, who's behind the project.... and on and on, are factors that are completely in the teams control, and each one accumulates into the painting of what the crypto would look like on the markets.

Price of all cryptos is determined by Bitcoin still, if bitcoin falls, most alts will fall. If Bitcoin falls and altcoins miraculously climb significantly (the majority) then that's what most would call the fabled "alt-season" or dominance of Bitcoin shrinking by 3-10% in a very short period (any definition can be used).

There are also external factors from the outside, such as the world markets and sentiment of crypto vs world markets, the global market is at all-time-high, but nothing climbs forever and eventually there will be a recession occurring. I believe crypto in many regards has been behaving more and more like a hedge, like gold, against volatility in the world markets. There are many factors that point to 2020 as the year of crypto, but no one really truly knows this for certain.


Altcoins suffer from major problems as well, that's primarily the liquidity argument/problem.


There are many factors overall that paint the picture of crypto. In a micro perspective of 1 week or 1 month, you may see doom and gloom. But if you take a more holistic and macro approach, you will come to the realization of progress and forward-thinking... movement.

There are a lot of shitcoins and profiteers out there, thus many are getting burned at a more alarming rate. Thus it's critical to heavily understand what you're supporting, what the project is and make calculated decisions for your time, money or effort invested into any project. Things not going so well? Liquidate and exit the moment you do not feel right about anything, do not stick around and become a victim to the cost-sunk-fallacy. The majority of crypto investors are victims of this 1 single term that can almost define this space, at the current time at least and unfortunately. 

so maybe now is the time for the market to improve itself, after the high rise in 2017 and the large number of projects that came out that year until now, and now is a position of improvement where people are starting to stop investing in new projects for a while, but what if this continues, what about projects that are really good and can't be funded because people think it's a scam, is this the reality of the current crypto market where it will be very difficult to get funding for new projects.
and also some of the bounty projects that I have participated in have completed and paid their tokens and well the price was very disappointing, dropping 90% I am not surprised because it has happened for 1 year.

Nothing is impossible, neither is it unlikely. If anyone had a crystal ball to foresee a parabolic uptrend in the crypto markets, then that catalyst for parabolic would occur now or any minute from now, but no one can foretell this or has any bloody idea about really anything; so the markets continue on the basis on how the majority of whales, fish and regular joe's feel about crypto markets and if they can turn a profit from day-trading.

Crypto is based on 1 major force, sentiment, how people feel. Most investors will never return a profit in crypto, because the average investor is uneducated and lacks critical skills to understand his or her emotions. This essentially means, buy high and sell low. Investing based on pure instinct and feelings. This is what drove the crypto boom, along with various of other factors.

Money does not come out of anywhere, there are big whales and governments playing the game of crypto; it's a new financial battle ground that's beginning to take shape and form. Who knows what role Bitcoin and altcoins will be playing in 10 years from now? But what we do know is that blockchain and crypto will never cease to exist, it will never go away truly. So this opens up endless possibilities for what can happen in the future.


2020 is the year many have been waiting for, this was initially due to Bitcoin's halving. But what's also occurring in 2020, is the fruition of what's been brewing for these past 2-3 years now, maturing processes. Maturing of integration, matured businesses, more educated individuals, real world implementation and lastly, legality. These factors are all brewing and 2020 is the year that will be seen to be pivotal in crypto. If you've been following trends, crypto news and movements in this space this year, you will understand exactly what's meant by this paragraph. It's a topic in itself really.


To get into more speculative territories, there was (and somewhat still is) big tension in the world markets, where expectations of the relentless all-time-highs in the S&P and DOW will all play a factor, when the market corrects itself and thus leading into a global recession. Global recession will come in the next decade and it will fall in a time in place where there is high uncertainty in the world, especially third world and developing nations. What this means for crypto, well it means that anyone who's in crypto and understands larger forces at play and what crypto inherently represents, has a reason to be bullish.

I'm bullish on crypto, what was seen in 2017-2018 was similar to 2011-2012 and 2013-2014, that wasn't the first bubble and it won't be the last. Similarly, there's a lot of predictions "almost all predictions are useless by the way, no one truly knows" for ridiculous climbs in the market. Well these predictions are perceived on gold valuation (like 2-3 Trillion mcap currently?) Many see crypto achieving some sort of parity or overthrowing gold as the next store of value, particularly, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the be all and end all and will drive the next catalyst, that's if we don't see the flippening occur, which some alt-enthusisats see occurring in the next decade.

Hello tk808, glad to see nice thread like this!

We all know that almost 2 years, crypto is on bearish market. Most of crypto price tends down even almost 99%
My question, how do we take profit from bearish market?

Trust in the markets is definitely dwindling, but this hasn't been the first time. I directly recall activity and all efforts around the period of 2015 was near an all-time-low, where many crypto projects, businesses (including my first crypto business Coins Source) had no faith or saw any type of return in the markets. There was little money being spent, little money going around and it appeared crypto was dead. Unfortunately, if we had the knowledge we do now, then the world would be a different place.

I read somewhere that the biggest factor that comes into play in cryptocurrency, is tribalism; it couldn't be closer to the truth. The reality is, people invest time and money (basically their lives) into a particular project. Even them full knowing that their investment was a bad decision and that the project is going nowhere, they have no option to keep supporting the project due to their invested wealth and energy. Cost Sunk fallacy.

My biggest recommendation and advice, is if you truly feel you're on the proper course, never give up. Because you and I have no idea what's going to occur tomorrow.


Most projects are getting funded through 2 primary mechanisms, through VC's and through becoming affiliated with an exchange (via IEO). There's only about 5 good exchanges that are still running IEO's and this mechanism for funding has dwindled as of recent. The market is saturated. Only the best of the best projects will be able to shine through and get funded accordingly through public endeavors. You can discount the other 10-20 or so shit exchanges that run IEOs, it's mostly all fake, manipulated and corrupted.




Bounty campaigns will eventually go away entirely. There's virtually no need for bounties anymore, especially if you're backed by a large exchange. The entire bounty market is saturated and both littered with scam and useless projects (about 90% of all bounties). There are also factors such as protecting a market, but never trust a project that exclaims "oh we're giving away 100k usd in our tokens, or 5% of the supply going towards bounty efforts. These are the worst types of campaigns. Even 1% is ridiculous these days for bounties. There are too many people, too many fake accounts, too many individuals who want to profit off this stuff. What ends up happening is major group think, where activity behind a bounty spurs more activity.

The best advice overall, never commit to something that's too good to be true, always diligently research the project. If something is not to your liking, then do not join. Chances are, your gut instincts are right and that what you're about to get yourself into is mostly bullshit.

Well, mostly luck.

There are various of ways to draw profits, usually through diversification and not only through purely investments. My best advice to you, find a niche that you want to exploit and move forward with that.

If you want to be a day-trader, then all you should be doing is day trading. If you want to be a long-term investor, then become the best at spotting projects worthwhile. If you want to be a bounty hunter, then be the best hunter and similar to investing, know every type of project and scam to launch. If you want to be a MN/Staker, then be prepared to liquidate and move onto the next big thing.

The objective is to fully understand what you're getting yourself into, before commiting to something. Be the best at what you want to do. Know your niche and exactly how you want to go about doing something.

Not everything will be profitable and there are larger forces at play always. But preparing and being ready before any catastrophic or rocket-ship action occurs, will always lead you out ahead. Never linger for longer than necessary and be ready to cut your losses if that situation occurs. Too many continue to support failing investments or time dedicated to a particular project. Again, cost-sunk-fallacy.

Aren't you afraid that crypto will be completely banned by every country? Using crypto will be illegal and every person that will not accept it will go to the prison. Whats your opinion? Because governments control money for a loong time in oue history.

This is an impossible reality at this current time. If you were to ask this community 3-10 years ago, that fear was very real. In this day and age, crypto is not in any position to usurp any economy anytime soon, so therefore it posses little-to-no threat to current monetary systems; frankly, we won't see such a scenario unless all faith in any currency is lost. There will be national digital currencies that will replace any fiat gap before Bitcoin or any crypto will be seen as a primary currency.

On the contrary to what you stated, it's observed that countries are becoming more favorable towards cryptocurrencies and governments are finally waking up to potential future possibilities. A big wake-up call occurred last year, when Chinese president Xi Jinping, announced his internal strategy publicly, to dominate blockchain industry. Quickly followed by that, we saw a much mildier-tone from the United States and many public figures have come out to show support for regulating, tax friendly and etc around crypto. So the environment in the U.S. many European countries, Japan, China and most recently the ban-lift in India denotes a positive picture where crypto is becoming accepted and legitimized.


Cryptocurrency is one application for Blockchain technology. No government will restrict a forthcoming industry that will shape the world. Crypto is a means for entrepreneurs to adopt, create and innovate. You stifle that, you stifle an entire emerging tech industry, leading to the loss of talents and potentially trillions of dollars in future industries and revenue.


There has been some movement to crackdown on crypto's though, specifically through security laws and registration. We are not in an era anymore, from a social crypto perspective or government perspective, where you launch a crypto without having some sort of oversight and regulation authority overseeing your business/start-up. So make no mistake, governments are highly in-charge of this industry and this will only significant increase as time progresses. Concurrently, users like you and I will never accept some shady practice/crypto that's operating as an ICO or claims to give ROIs on profits, these practices will always be shunned on from here on out.

People will always be duped and let their imaginations run wild, but these are usually people who lose their life-savings in such schemes, therefore, high-profile scams will become less frequent. What we are witnessing is both growing pains, legitimization and maturing process of an entire industry.

We are far from seeing an attitude shift towards cryptos, we're actually seeing the inverse sentiment around cryptos and favorability. If the U.S. saw crypto as a threat, they would have banned it already, they would have banned it 2-3 years ago when crypto was just getting out of its infancy. On the opposite spectrum, in an authoritarian government, China, if they saw it as a threat they would of outright banned it. China is most interested in becoming a dominate factor in the world, actively competing with U.S., so China could very-well ban "foreign" cryptos, but they have been most nurturing of any crypto/blockchain business in China, up to this point (disregard IEOs and ICOs/public sales).

Ok, i am ready to ask you a couple crypto related questions, so please answer me in detail;
1) when do you think crypto mass adoption will become a reality?
2) when do you think crypto will be declared a legal and legit thing all across the globe?
3) when do you think btc is going to hit 100k mark?

I hope you will shed some light on these things in a thorough manner. Thank you.

These questions we can only touch-upon or are speculative questions in which I will not answer. You asked several broad-questions, if there's 1 particular specific question, I'll be happy to answer that. Therefore, this answer will be reserved in thought and details. Feel free to post more specifically in a follow-up.



1) You gave a very generic term for "Mass adoption." This term is thrown around lightly, without any contextual framework. What does one consider mass adoption? 100% of the worlds population, 50%, 20%? Majority adoption for third world countries? Integration of BTC into any payment vendor? Crypto's on the World market Indices? These questions go on and on. Because, this is a click-bait term used to elude to a question "When will crypto markets become a 1-2 trillion dollar market" which then implies, yeah crypto has then seen mass adoption because Bitcoin hit 50 or 100k. Even if the markets achieve speculative territories, it doesn't mean Bitcoin or any crypto has been "mass adopted." Again, very vague terminology that's interpreted 1001 ways.

The answer to this question is also and more-so, highly data driven. Give me a more specific question you want answered.


2) See above response https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5190137.msg53996796#msg53996796. But in short, there will never be a moment where anyone understands this question properly. Crypto is and always will be subjective to local, country and etc laws. Every location will have a specialized rule-set/laws and legal framework to abide by, that favors that particular country.

There will never be a specific date or year in which crypto will suddenly be declared unanimously by every government in the world. These are fantasy imaginations. You have to take a micro-macro approach and observe what's occurring in every country, every region/district to get a full-representation of how crypto is perceived and which laws are being applied/discussed.

Therefore answering this question is also null to me, because it has no significant meaning.



3) I will not comment on speculative questions. No one knows the answer to this question or has any clue if this ever will be a reality or when it will be. I will comment, this information stems from this data-analysis of logarithmic regression, a chart/graphic that has been circulating Bitcointalk for over 6 years now. This is where every idea of a 100k bitcoin stems from and has been taken as a holy bible for all the useless price speculations that popular crypto news sites and shills cover on a regular basis.  (IMAGE BELOW)



Never listen to anyone who comments on price, neither should you ever get your hopes and dreams for something someone predicted, they don't know anymore than you do. That's the real truth. No one on this planet, even with the best software tools available, can predict where the crypto markets are headed. Crypto markets are still an infant and there's still very little we actually know; especially since the markets are just little over 10 years old. There are only 3 events and the chart below in which almost every future analysis is derived from. Alternatively, it's easy to get excited because anyone can depict the graph below and interpret it as fact, because it predicted roughly specific milestones, years and prices. The human mind will piece any string of information together to fit its desires and make that truth as the new reality. What do you see?

I see that most projects that survive are projects that are under 2017. While new projects in 2018 and above are more about capital returns. Because many of them have already spent capital on the 2017 project and the end of the project is a failure.
Nearly 80% of new projects fail. Some were successful but in the end, they ran away. This is something bad for crypto.

I saw several projects that survived, they have their own platforms. If indeed the project hitched a name on another platform, then most of them failed. The website that they make is just a place where they express ideas, but the ideas don't work.

I think now only Tether is on the lucky line. They created coins equivalent to the value of USD. While their supply is unlimited and will make the price of other coins drop.

My question is all on privacy coins now, its hard seeing people or investors talking about Monero this days except miners out there, what do you think the future of privacy coin will be? Prevail or not?

I have a question about crypto transactions.
Maybe this is simple for others, and yet it's important to me.

Every time we make a transaction (send) say Ethereum. In one transaction the coins will go out in two different directions. First to the intended wallet. Second, to the wallet fee.

The question:
1. Why is TX only one?
2. Will the fee go to the wallet platform or return to the Contract Creator source?

Sorry if this question is a bit stupid. ;D ;D ;D

Txid stands for Transaction ID. Txid can be used to track transactions and the status of a transaction (still waiting, unconfirmed, or confirmed and received by the destination address). For every transaction you make, you must pay a small fee so that the token or coin you send will go to your destination wallet. Transaction fees will be deducted from the balance of tokens or coins you send and the amount of fees will affect the speed of your transactions.

Every transaction that we do still requires another party called a miner. The fee you pay for each transaction is the fee you pay for the miner so that the token or coin you send goes to your wallet. Transaction fees (fees) will enter the miner's wallet and txid is proof that can be used to track your shipping transaction. Please CMIIW ;)

Thanks for giving us opportunity to ask questions, it's really appreciated, during the last bull run, I wasn't a part of crypto,little did I know about it,though I heard how bullish the crypto market was, like I was also told about the Chinese New year and it's effect on the crypto market but this year,it didn't turn out as it use to be because of the Corona virus,  that brings me to my question, if the Corona virus persist till May which is the halving period, will it have any effect on the halving or not?

If its will continue until the halving then the price will be affected even there are good things expecting to happen after halving .


This will be a war between negative market because of covin19 and positive thinking about the halving that it will give postive feedback to investors the only things we should wait is who will win in the market if thats happen.

I overall and somewhat agree with what you stated here. Not entirely sure what your question is here though.

There are 2 paths for start-ups to take

1) The crypto through conventional fundraising means, sale, exchange, etc.
2) The business - generally funded through private means without a cryptocurrency associated

Most people conflate these 2 ideas together, any cryptocurrency that's looking to make a business from that are mostly unsuccessful, this is due to numerous reasons. But yes, projects that launched in late 2018-2019 are mostly the most active and hardworking teams, in contrast to coins to launch in 2016-2018. There are definitely outliers, but this is a general round-up of the scenario.

Projects don't survive for numerous of reasons, the primary reason is due to lack of experience or inability to execute. It was relatively easy to raise funds, but the hard work begins after the crypto is launched and you have infinite avenues to take and work on. Some focused on technical, which leads nowhere. Some focused on just marketing, which also leads nowhere. Some made cryptos without a full internal execution plan and etc.

More often than not, teams have failed because they don't have the talent or experience in their team. You have to have knowledge both about cryptocurrencies, blockchain and ability to weather any storm in crypto, while having well-rounded experience and a strategy for general marketing and development road-maps.



Overall, this answer can get quite big, there are 100s of examples that we can get into; but you seem to generally recognize the scenario. As we move forward, less and less cryptos are launching; more people are filtering only the highest quality projects and even more are creating good business models and projects (which in turn, raises the entry-barrier for start-up projects and drives this whole space forward.

My final assessment, is that the line that separates a "good" project from a "bad" one has been increasing at a significant rate, since mid-late 2018 and will only continue to grow. We're left in a situation where (if you follow cryptos closely) you can immediately recognize a good team with solid fundamentals.

Where there always be scams, get-rich and projects people are fooled by? Of course. But this will become less and less frequent and has become less frequent. There just aren't that many cryptocurrencies launching these days in contrast to a couple of years ago.



Feel free to follow up with a specific question, I ran on a tangent here and basically inflated what you stated.

It's difficult to predict where a certain crypto niche is headed. There are many factors and elements that can undue or create a situation where privacy coins are in high-demand.

The reality is, not many really care about privacy and data, it's an abstract thought for most. Will we see some sort of catalyst that drives privacy-coins? Probably. Could we even see a continued disinterest in privacy coins? Also could be a possibility. The truth is, no one really knows.


There are many new, sophisticated projects that offer various of privacy features. There are a lot of open-source or third-party websites that can complement non-cryptocurrencies and serve every niche for privacy. What the general trend is at this time, is incorporating various of privacy features into cryptos, that isn't necessarily the center-stage of their marketing. There are a lot of crypt-advancements that have been made, that are baked into a lot of new blockchains and utility tokens that are a forethought.

The reality is, the demand for privacy coins is very small, niche at best. So what teams do is follow essentials of crypto adding various and numerous of technical layers and improvements into their chain. It's a very different situation today, because in order to strive and be successful you need to compete at a much higher-level. Therefore, niche-based coins no longer can compete or have any worth in this current climate.

Alternatively, a lot of business and regulations are clamping down on things like mixers and etc. Exchanges are heavily under-pressure to appeal to financial institutions, banks and etc. KYC and AML are increasingly a big factor. So, in a sense, privacy coins are dead in some specific aspects, for an average user who's not conducting illegal activities with their privacy coins. So as the larger crypto industry and business that serve cryptos continue to become more centralized and exchanges start appearing as crypto banks, privacy coins get pushed out of the picture.


These coins will prevail to the end of time. The real question is if there will ever be demand at a high-level for such coins. Given the situation of the markets, you will always see pumps and dumps occurring, but it's probably unlikely that one day we'll see Monero overthrowing Ethereum or Dash climbing back into the top-10. The current climate for privacy-coins is only becoming more closed and shut-off, by centralization (of just about everything). Concurrently, the current blockchain and crypto industry is about technical advancements and striving forward. There are much bigger beasts. Some of the early, open-sourced, private and community-centered projects just have no real space to compete with bigger and significantly more organized (and funded) crypto teams.


Again, there could be a catalyst for the need of privacy coins in the future, but that future is always uncertain and if and when that day will come.

I believe Raja was asking about sending multiple transactions with 1 TXID. For example, lets say he wanted to pay 100 employees; how would he do that through 1 click? This is how I'm interpreting his question and not so much about what a TX is.

Let me try to state this as friendly as possible (This is blockchain specific btw):

The reason there's only 1 TX per transaction (Peer-to-peer transaction), is because of the nature of blockchain and how tx hashes work. This is inherent and fundamental to blockchain for security, privacy and etc. When you send a transaction, you're revealing secured information to only that receiving party (much like how you access websites through SSL encryption), there's only 1 key known by you and that party, for a secure connection. If anyone else knew this secret key, then your transaction could potentially be hijacked/hacked.


Therefore, people use automated scripts/payment platforms and specific wallets designed for this, to make multiple payouts automatically and generally not by hand. There are numerous of solutions (third-party) that solve this issue you're talking about it.

Can you send 1 Bitcoin to 10 people, at the same time, yes you can; but each transaction will be sent with a specific Hash in it's own transaction with its own fees.
 

First, Akiko is talking about pure speculation and is not backed by any evidence or proof that "good things to be expected after halving." Is this wishful thinking, yes. Is this something to look forward to, yes. Is Bitcoin directly impacted by COVID-19, no; it's only connected through investor sentiment and has always been the case.

As you all have witnessed, there was a large correction in cryptos and Bitcoin, mostly from a suspicion of hedges and big funds selling off their entire portfolios, which occasionally had Bitcoin or other cryptos within it. The best example of a large investors in a particular crypto, outside ETH and BTC, is Link. Link's market has all indicators that big money has been involved in it for over a year now. This ultimately all adds that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies were increasing being looked into and being invested in by the big guys. There's of course all the little fish who sold Bitcoin, because once liquidation starts, panic also begins. All that capital that was sold is most likely being held in stablecoins, as noted by the grand-rise in BUSD and many others.

There are other sources and individuals who've spoke about about Onecoin's scammed BTC being dumped during this same period, which may have also attributed to a panic sell among traders.

Yes COVID-19 will persist through the Bitcoin-Halving and this is becoming more likely and iterated by experts in the media and through officials. These two events are not directly related, the bigger question you're asking is about Bitcoin miners, since this is the only area that is directly impacted.

Bitcoin halving real quickly is when reward payouts are "halved" meaning Bitcoin mined blocks get reduced in half, reducing the amount of new BTC entering the market and diminishing the impact of miners liquidating their BTCs.

So there are 2 forces: 1) Less Bitcoins entering the supply 2) Less impact of miner's liquidating Bitcoins.

Hash rate since the slight crypto crash has rebounded and will continue along its logarithmic trajectory. We saw a dip to DEC 2019 levels (3 months ago), which is significant, but nothing to really worry about it, since this dip was minimal and has since recovered as cooler heads have prevailed in mining and the markets. (as seen below)


Energy prices are also diminishing due to COVID-19, which will increase the amount of mining power being put towards Bitcoin, you cross a certain threshold of energy cost vs how much you can earn in 1 day mining Bitcoins.

Accordingly, some recent news of Bitcoin mining should ease any negative mind-set, Antminers just sold out almost immediately and are being prepped to ship right around the halving period. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmain-s19-antminers-sell-out-wont-ship-until-may-11


What does this all mean?

It essentially means, Bitcoin will be slightly impacted by COVID-19 through the markets and big investors (sentiment), but in terms of the network and what halving means, individuals remain bullish as ever. It's easy to get upset, scared, worried and etc about the next 2 months; this is common since most can't comprehend or look beyond tomorrow, thinking only in the moment and now.

My advice, relax and be vigilant. Bitcoin and crypto markets are in early infancy compared to every other financial market. Crypto and Bitcoin are still dominated by sentiment. To a much smaller degree, it's dominated by external monetary factors in the world markets; but the crypto markets have stabilized and have remained relatively stable since that sell-off occurred, despite worsening COVID situations in the west and through increasingly aggressive monetary policies. I have a suspicion, which is not backed by anything, that eyes will turn to cryptocurrency soon or later. There will be a moment in time where Bitcoin makes a big comeback in the news, for better or for worse.

Maybe no, he asked why every transaction he made only produced 1txid and i am sure the Raja only wanted to know why the transaction fee did not have txid. My assumption is that the Raja question is not about sending several transactions at one time but about transaction fees that dont exist txid.

As I know, the transaction fee is charged from the total balance to be sent and if we send it to several addresses in one transaction, the fee will be calculated and deducted from the existing balance and the transaction fee will go to the miners wallet.