Bitcoin Forum

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

I think everyone around is absolutely right regarding the death crossover it actually is a horrific event which could really make BTC go further down to 6k ranges. Basically the 50D MA is falling upon the 200MA and can soon intersect it from the top I don't think it's long before we see a quick bearish action in the market which would become the reason of the penetration. I think best right now is to stay out of the market and only enter once the dusts have settled. Holiday season and Christmas are good indication to predict price action but definitely not better than moving averages.

do you have a video or article to provide? I'd love to read or watch this meeting and to decide what I feel about it. investors, experts etc..  has been saying for years that bitcoin is near death
and it still here? I'd love to know the whole of their meeting so a video or an article would be nice.

Financial analysis of Bitcoin's price history has not gained anyone any good prediction of what is going to happen in the future. We just bounced back from a 80% drop in the price and in this year alone we grew from $3000 to $12 000 in a few months.  :P

Where will they extrapolate the "death cross" ....because $3000 was pretty low and we are now averaging around $8000 for quite some time now.  :D

Ignore all the "noise" from speculators and just gather more coins, because the Moon is coming.  ;)

Well the death cross is not applicable to bitcoin. Maybe it can be applied to stock market but not to cryptocurrency. If you notice the movement of the stock market and cryptocurrency has a very big difference in terms of volume and in terms of volatility. This death cross is not a threat to bitcoin, bitcoin will continue to rule the world of digital currency and many years from now it will surely hit 1 million dollars. I am not that bullish but I believe that a decade or two bitcoin will nail that value.

It is just a pattern in a technical analysis wherein there is always a two way scenario.. Which means it is more like a guess opportunity pattern.  The current market sentiment is something like.. wait and see, though I believe lots of people who longed when Bitcoin got some recovery last week are probably itching to sell, they are getting impatient.  It is worsen by a sudden move of some huge BTC fund to an exchange, we can probably see some price drop in the next days.


If you are looking for an article about this Death Cross, you can find it here: https://www.coindesk.com/looming-death-cross-suggests-bitcoin-may-be-nearing-price-bottom

while i am also in believe that Bitcoin will never Hit a Million dollar value yet i don't believe about that death cross.for years of being ere i dont remember how many times i have read that bitcoin or even the crypto market is nearly dead but until now never even a sign or indications happen so nope.this will never be true

instead of supporting this kind of negative issue why not just help create a positive response so the other readers won't extend the same,as this is just a created issue of those whales to bring Fud and make the price bottoming again

IMO what's wrong with supporting the fact? or even there is bad thing happen we still spread positive response? isnt it a lie?

technically, death cross surely bearish sign which can make strong effect

but it hasnt happened now, maybe happen in the next week or so. or it's still has potential to pullback. let's see

https://i.imgur.com/CgffMXA.png
source : coindesk

Same thing I think about the bell bottom, double bottom, triple bottom, Bart Simpson, golden cross, etc. They're fun to see, fun to make, but serve no useful purpose in helping us understand where Bitcoin price is going.

From what I am forced to hear, the death cross has sort of threatened to appear several times already, and generally means a bear trend confirming (but really, didn't we confirm that long ago?). But Bitcoin does as Bitcoin does. Short BTC now and you could just as well enter a trap.

I would say that this death cross can be a good thing to discuss academically but we know that with Bitcoin not all of our predictions and projections can be happening. Though there is nothing wrong if we have threshed out this phenomenon layer by layer. I am not a very technical prson but I am equally amazed at this discussion and how will the market be eventually swayed by this. Let's see in the following weeks if this death cross can really mean more dips for Bitcoin. The use of the word "death" is more alarming to me rather what its meaning, actually.

A death cross on the daily timeframe would be pretty impactful on the price movement, but as always it could be just another fake out so the bulls create liquidity, but it is less likely. On the last daily death cross Bitcoin price plunged over 60% which would put us at around $3120. I don't think we'll pierce through the $7000 support line though especially with the halvening coming next year, but anything is possible in crypto.

a death cross is just 2 lines created by humans and a app..
it meaning is about as powerful as a todler with a marker pen doing scribbles

the lines are not based on upcoming events(halving), innovations(better asics that give stronger support to btc)
its just on looking to the past and pretending they have a crystal ball that the past always repeats itself

sorry but it doesnt.
people drawing lines on price charts but only using source data of the price chart is very limiting in analysis.

heck i can take a 60 day chart and analyse it and get a line out of it.
heck i can take a 80 day chart and analyse it and get a line out of it.
heck i can take a 120 day chart and analyse it and get a line out of it.

all 3 lines show different 'death cross' ETA
so it just shows that a death cross is meaningless as it wont be a fixed thing. its just random prediction based on selective data

might aswell have a dart board and aim three darts at it and total up the score. then just say based on the score something will happen on day xxx of the next 180 days

..
the purpose of these graphs is not to predict an event. but try to convince bot traders to use their data to cause bots to auto trade to CAUSE the prophecy.
yep its not a predicting an event its to attempt to cause the event which wont happen unless they convince people to react unnecessarily

Bitcoin isn't a cat that have 9 lives, I wonder when they are going to stop saying that bitcoin is getting its funeral soon, I mean this rumors are spreading since bitcoin got the spotlight, lets stop believing this nonsense, you wouldn't be here if you gave up in bitcoin already.

It's not science to me, it's just making predictions by finding patterns. It can come true or not, pretty much like any other prediction. Bitcoin is not very predictable, and it would be strange if it was, given that the price is not regulated by any authority. I hope that people will stay calm, won't make this "profecy" self-fulfilling. Bitcoin is holding the position, for now, it may or may not keep doing so regardless of any crosses or whatever else people see while analyzing the charts. If people who have a lot of Bitcoins believe the FUD around the cross thing, it can bring us another price drop. But saying that the drop was caused by the cross would be committing the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.

The death cross means absolutely nothing to me, when it comes to stocks and other similar markets that move slower that this market it could be possible to use that crossing as a signal that the market is going down and it will soon enter a bearish season but when it comes to this market that moves so fast and it has a huge volatility the death cross means nothing, I do not really need a confirmation that the market is going down when I can see what the price has been doing during the last weeks.

What I will be interested in knowing will be how low the price will go and how long will this bear season last but as far as I know that is not possible to do.

That's what moving averages are for in my opinion. It's obviously not bullet proof, but what is?

If we're above the 200MA on the daily, we're generally quite bullish and vice versa when we're below that moving average. Currently we're hovering below the 200MA on the daily, where one more dump will make me shift to the weekly time frame to reassess the market. The 200MA on the daily is ~$8800 while the weekly 200MA is gearing towards ~$4700 as we speak.

Back in 2018 and 2019 we had a bounce off the 200WMA twice which ended up being the perfect bottom to buy. It's important to state that between 2016 and now we have never had a weekly close below the 200WMA, so it should tell you something about how important it is for long term trend recognition.

We're currently far above the 200WMA, so the longer we consolidate above that moving average we're going to get a higher floor even when we move sideways for a whole year.

There were numerous death cross fakeouts where the price hit a death cross and there was a big red candle following but Bitcoin lost only a couple points and bounced back up. You can look for these fake crosses in the charts.

Yes a death cross usually means a sell pressure but this pressure can be big or small. It can mean bitcoin lowing 2% or 20% depending on the state of the market. Now it looks like we are bullish with the coming halving and shouldn't go lower than 6000 dollars.

Unlike early 2018, everyone seems to be watching for this death cross and expecting the worst. Sentiment is getting miserable. Most analysts I know are very bearish with the exception of those who have been through multiple bubble cycles.

To me, this kind of sentiment is indicative of bottom. I expect another attempt down below $7,700 but my gut tells me bulls will reject it hard and that any death cross will be a false signal. That happened once before in 2015.

Either way, let's at least let the death cross occur before expecting the worst.

The issues with these death crosses and moving averages is that they are lagging indicators. If you look at the charts for the previous crosses you would see that sometimes they work and sometimes they don't work. However if you only took an entry right when the cross took place you would have a horrible entry. Whether the death cross actually played out or not.

This is something to look at in the long term macro level but its not good to base trades off, especially if you are trying to day trade. You need to look at other fundamental factors. I think most people in crypto just look at horizontal lines and take their long term trades based off that.

Right now we are pretty much in a neutral area, if the $7700 support breaks then it could be the start of the bear market and I don't think the $6000 area will be enough support to bounce us back up. There are too many people who want to long off $6000 and most likely it won't hold.

I don't consider $7,700 a real support level. Losing it just means breaking down from a short term bear flag, which should be expected.

Structurally on the weekly chart, our current position looks a lot like the first week of December 2018. Not the bottom, but close.


Usually when everyone wants to long from the same level, we never reach it at all.

And most of the time, those speculations remain speculations. They are not happening when the time comes. I am still very optimistic with the future of bitcoin. Why? Because more and more institutions are joining the pack, more shops are integrating crypto in their payment methods and to think that a lot of crypto exchanges are being launched. If they don't see the growth in crypto, why are they launching a business which has very tough competition in the market?

Moving averages are an indicator and this is a bearish sign but only alongside others.  I think if we are going to be accurate it has be an accumulated view, much as I'd like to spend five minutes and come to a sound conclusion its probably going to be harder to perceive good direction then just one moment, day or even week.    
   I think the good advice I was given by a professional was the direction of the moving average is the best indicator to how much caution should be employed, when we have a falling 200 day average then it brings with it the idea we are entering a bear market.   If we see a flat line on 200 day then we have to be careful in not being too bearish or bullish as it can be a market in transition.
  So going on that rule of thumb, we are still ascending in the 200 day average and I think this pullback is too early to assume as being especially harsh or likely to increase in momentum.   We have to examine the case every day really on multiple time frames.

as a trend indicator, it performs decently on the daily chart. in 2014 and 2018, the initial death cross after the bubble popped confirmed long term bear markets in both cases. there have been a couple fakeouts throughout bitcoin's history though, it's true.


agreed, you certainly can't trade off it. in fact in the short term it almost seems to act as a contrarian indicator. the april 2014 and march 2018 crosses occurred right before huge bounces.

I remember, btc increase during the holiday season last bull, so this statement of you isn't that true at all mate, since in fact it happened already. No one knows what could be the end of it. But I'm sure if not this year, maybe the following years it will happen again.

The graph show unstable movement, and literally I cant see a good come back but fundamentals is way stronger than TA. Bitcoin halving is approaching, and 3millions btc left for us to mine. You know what happened when supply limits, the demand will increase.

be careful with that thought process
the 18m coins in circulation(supply) is not the same as the 1.2m coins in exchange(supply)

in very value simplicity. if no more coins were mind today. exchange demand can increase 15x without even touching the full circulation supply tip

..
also the actual numbers of bitcoin is 2,100,000,000,000,000sats
btc(100m sats) is just an arbitory human eye visable depiction of the actual units available meaning
2.1quadrillion people can own 1 unit equally
21trillion people can own 100sat(1bit) equally
7billion people can own 3000bits(300,000sats) equally

most people life savings are just ~$25k(average) meaning 12sats can be $1
. but to get to my point.
devs are already trying to trick economic supply/demand by allowing 1000x more units of measure
they want to add 'millisats' into it
basically 1btc=100,000,000,000ms
by having more units of measure more people can have a 'share'/unit. or more people can accumilate more units of measure. thus cause a change to the supply/demand dynamic

so dont expect much rational/smart people to be affected by supply/demand in 120 years when fresh coins dry up. you will just see speculation/hype bubble pump the speculative spot price way above the underlying value next year for a temporary spike in a new ATH and settle down again when drama is over.
in short the halving is not in of itslf a value increase indicator but a speculative temporary drama event. which offers a small oppertunity for miners to profit and expand their farms where by the farms then sustain a higher value support wall

It depends what day averages lines are you looking at. On some In 2016 made golden cross, then death cross and then again golden cross. On some it made only golden cross.    For sure death and golden cross are good indicator what is ahead, but only by looking in past what it did before.

This morning's bounce might be good news for those hoping to avoid the death cross. These are the first hourly higher highs and overbought conditions since the last push to $8,800. This could be the start of something but it's too early to say:

https://i.imgur.com/v45j1D8.png

Bulls obviously have their work cut out for them but there's a chance this is our push to the $9,000s. This would lean towards the scenario David has charted here with the green arrows. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52813750#new)

The "death cross" is one of the most cliche and well known chart patterns, and even if it did provide some trading advantage at some point in the past for some products,

the traditional interpretation of it would have long ago ceased to lead to any meaningful profitability because too many people are already anticipating and factoring it in their trading decisions.

Unless you have a way to react to it differently from the stampeding herds of mainstream actors, the main effect such an overused and globally known indicator can have on the markets is psychological...

You should at least tag up some charts so that people will able to see on what you are referring into.Death cross? This isnt applicable on bitcoin market
but somehow these sentiments can make out some emotional effects among into its traders.

Yet, we had already seen some Death cross last 2014 https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
Then what happened? We did even reach new ATH in 2017.

Might be a false death cross: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbh0A1IKBdw
with these analysis we can either utilize or just ignore these technicals.

False signals of death cross are abound right now imo. BTC currently at 8k and constantly showing a bullish rise steadily.
And even if Death cross would occur, I doubt it could make a huge effect on the market. Besides, only those day traders would be hugely affected. I'm doubtful that long term investors would let themselves be affected by it since most of them would have depended on the horizontal line instead of the death cross since it is quite inefficiently to base off of it.

yeah, it certainly looks like the $3k range. price has fallen down unexpectedly and without reason and now everyone is confused with a lot of those who sold late wishing for bigger drops so they keep seeing charts in the way the like (pointing to a bigger drop) so that they can buy.
there is a difference though. in the entire first half of month of December, we had a downtrend. but now all we had over the past 30+ days have been stability (chart looks nearly horizontal).

I guess it is more realistic to say that Bitcoin is hitting 1 million USD than to say that Bitcoin is going to hit 0, that death cross. It is not realistic to say that we will live to see that day when Bitcoin hits 1 million USD but it will most probably come in the next generation. That death cross is not going to happen. A lot of wealthy investors have stake in Bitcoin. They will do everything to push it up.

It seems to me that bitcoin does not lend itself to any technical analysis. He has long proved that for him there are no rules and mandatory schedules. He constantly presents us with unexpected surprises that do not correspond to any technical forecasts. Even now, bitcoin is almost equally likely to start to grow well in price, or quickly fall. Justification for one and the other of its price movement can always be found. Therefore, I do not believe in any death crosses for bitcoin. At the same time, I do not think that he is able to rise to prices in excess of $ 50,000. This is all so far from the realm of fantasy.

That death cross is really looming now. We've had another breakdown on the daily so that 50-MA is curving down quickly:

https://i.imgur.com/vC8at00.png

Fortunately I've been patient and am still waiting to buy back. I think we should see a bullish reaction off $7K or upper $6,000s. Whether we're still in a bull market or not, $9K is still on the menu in the next month or two.

It was the holidays of 2017 when bitcoin soared at a price no one expected.
Or let us say before the holidays.
That is when people are receiving a lot of money. It could be a possibility also that people will invest their money into something. Bitcoin is one of those choices.
For me, I would not pick saving it in the bank for the increase will be so low that you needed a lot of money for you to feel the annual interest. (I really mean a lot like millions of dollars)
So let us not lose hopes that it could happen again.

To be sincere, expecting that price would take a significant push to the positive would be expression of hope which unfortunately the market does not respond to but consistent trading by capital inflow and also the continued penetration of crypto to the entire populace because without that it will be the same thing whether the holiday is coming or the holiday is over and no matter the meetings or conference that would change that.

The price of bitcoin reaching one million dollars is not what we are speculating for now, it is what we know that will eventually be the target of bitcoin in future which could be ten years’ time or more, because for bitcoin to reach that value, all the supply of bitcoin must have been extremely limited and bitcoin becoming so scarce, but right now, our next target of  bitcoin increase is not now or in this season of Christmas that we are approaching, but it will be after the next halving of bitcoin when miners will have their reward and that is what we expect to actually shoot the value of bitcoin high.

Bitcoin not moving upward in price is not a criteria to even judge it for not performing well because there are lot of trades and withdrawal going on and as people put in money for a purpose, so as they also pull it out for purpose too, people cannot just continue to Put money without removing it which we all think will be the main factor for having an increased value.

And now I see people talking about a different kind of cross. But forgive me if I misunderstood, wasn't the last few days exactly what's supposed to happen after a death cross? The reports I read said death cross signals major bottom, and then price will go up from there.

So why is everyone now talking about bearish trends again (not that I disagree).

Most of the people who've been involved in crypto these days prefer to sell their holdings to get fiat money and makes cryptocurrency as their source of income. People always dumped their coins for important purpose, and even if bitcoin was at unpredictable stage like bearish trend, no choice but failed to hold their asset due personal needs.

Its part of cryptocurrency already. There is always going to be someone one there with motives to buy but will only do if the price is low. With so many of them wishing for the price to go below $7k, I wouldn't be surprise if the price will actually drop sooner so you better be ready as well. Call it opportunity for at least we got the chance to grab some BTC.

The current trend is really growing well so you must listen when this tread was opened. Right now everyone waiting for next bull run so we buy Bitcoin in this situation it make good profit. Normally most of the peoples are think both side so those are believe the Bitcoin growing they always active in crypto market.

This death cross speculation is not new to us because we all knows that Bitcoin market is has been in many difficult market situations before but still it keeps on surviving so if it will granted that this death cross is different from before then so be it as there are lot of Altcoins that are willing to supersede Bitcoin as Crypto market will continue to live with or without Bitcoin.

Deathcross have been there isn't it. Aren't we bearing the market back then until those sudden pumps lately puts away this long drought. Well there still November and December to count let us put our hope for that month to put some positive changes in the market. Besides there are some new coin in the market rising up.

Eventually that death cross doesn't happen because the price surge after a big plummet to the downside that for me is a bear trap to liquidate those who are longing in that price.
I agreee with you to keep it in a realistic way rather thank expecting to reach $1m or the hopiums this October that the price would surge up to $16k. For me its a bullish trend right now we only need time to confirm it.

I think this "death cross" (I prefer the phrase bear cross, it's less suggestive) could go a number of different ways, as history shows us. Even if the likelihood is continued bearish price movement. I was initially anticipating a possible second wave pump to $12,000 by the end of the month, as twice before price has rallied hard into the bear cross, but now it's starting to look like the price will roll over again back the 200 & 50 Day MA's if bullish momentum doesn't have a comeback.


I also shared this likely bull cross on the Weekly charts between the 50 & 100 Week MA's elsewhere. It's not what's traditionally considered a bull cross like the "golden cross" (50 & 200 MA crossover), but it's a bullish sign nonetheless if it occurs. The price would have to hold $7500 area for a few more weeks to confirm, which is quite likely in my opinion.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tq9FefNV/

Why so bearish? Everything about this consolidation screams "bull pennant" to me:

https://i.imgur.com/o8jnkIU.png

Daily death crosses tend to coincide with massive bounces, at least in BTC. There was April 2014, September 2015, April 2018. My gut tells me this move isn't done yet, even if I'm wrong about the overall bull market. $12,000 still beckons.

Mainly because my bearish calls for the past two months have been more than accurate enough to make good money, so no point changing that in a hurry.
Not to mention the lower highs and lower lows pattern since July, especially on the monthly. The bullish case for me is the bull flag on the monthly chart only.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/P2opozIk/


Like the bull pennant of 2018, or the one we already had in 2019? Where the downtrend line is much steeper than the support trendline that's barely inclining, so much so that it can more accurately be drawn as a descending triangle? I get that were bouncing of the 200 Day MA, this is my third day scalping long trades off it, but once we close below the target is around $8,000, although I don't think we'd get that far due to how short-term and therefore unreliable this pattern is.

Zooming into this "bullish pennant" tells us a lot about where the bullish wicks are reaching: trendline resistance.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ocugo9PX/

$8400 looks like a good future entry price based on the VPVR gap (circled pink). We've already failed to create the bullish symmetrical triangle / bullish pennant when we started flat lining support. Lower lows is not a bullish pennant in my opinion, as well as getting rejected from the $9400 triangle breakdown resistance level (that we've conveniently forgot about (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.0)).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aMEHbRp0/

I'm always happy to be proved wrong (as is my hodl position), but I otherwise won't be adding to it for sometime by the looks of things.

Most bears selling for the past month or so are sitting on huge losses now. Their losses and underwater shorts are actually the fuel for the next move up.

We downtrended for 4 months and just retraced half the losses in a few days. Maybe you aren't in a hurry, but I'm curious, what are you waiting for exactly before losing your bearish bias? $14K? Watching the market nearly double from the bottom seems like a long time to wait.

I've been trading for nearly a decade. The single biggest reversal signal you will ever see in a market is Wyckoff spring / headfake action like we saw last week. It's not to be ignored.


That's exactly how most pullbacks look: a downtrend within a larger uptrend. How do you distinguish between primary and counter trend?


This one?

https://i.imgur.com/UTsWqAm.png

That wasn't a bull pennant. Not even close. Bull pennants are short term consolidations proportionally, and they don't begin with 70% declines. That's why the comparisons to 2018 don't fit.


You mean the pennant breakdown that was fully retraced last week? I'm not too worried about shaking the trees a bit more. That's exactly what happens in the early goings of an uptrend.

That move was not unexpected either:


I'll tell you two things I've learned about fractal analysis over the years:
1) It does more harm than good because fractals strongly reinforce biases.
2) When you see two fractals on the same chart, they usually play out opposite. Perhaps to do with sentiment/trader expectations.

Recency bias means that everyone is looking at the July-October pennant breakdown and expecting the same fractal to play out again. It probably won't.


I'm honestly really glad you and so many others are still bearish. If everyone was bullish, we wouldn't go up.  :)

Note I didn't reply to all of your message, even if I did appreciate the info, as a lot of this comes down to different style of trading/investing/hedging I believe.


I'm not so sure about this, clearly many panic sold it down to $7.5K after buying around $10K (mainly "new money" I'd imagine), but I don't see how you would of lost money shorting from $9.4K, $8.4 or $7.8K, unless you forgot to use a stop loss - in which case you deserve to lose all your money. I think instead many caught this profit, upto 25% of it. There was only a few days when you could of shorted $7.5K and got "rekt", in which case for most experienced traders they'd be risking recent profit with a stop loss, rather than fresh capital.


We also up trended for less than 24 hours and retraced half the gains within a few days, so there is irony here with this statement. As I mentioned previously, I was shorting above $8K and accumulating below this level, so I'm currently in 2/3 of a swing position from $7650 av. for reference sake. I guess you could say I got lucky, either that or I buy low and sell high, short high and close low, short and long term timeframes. Just because I'm not buying doesn't mean I'm selling a long position, even if I'd short again as a hedge (but only after confirmation). I'd also happily move this swing position to my hodl if the price holds up, this was half of the reasoning for it - in case I was wrong about $6410.

It wouldn't take $14K for me to shed my bearish bias, just a higher high on a long-time timeframe. Currently, given last month/weeks close, that's been lowered to $10.5K. Previously it was $12K but I'd begin laddering before this to get a better average price. As a trader, I never mind buying the price after it's doubled, last time that was at $6.4K so has done me well. Next time it could be at $9K for example, even $6.4K again if we're really lucky. As an investor, I'll otherwise BTFD without much thought process which also serves me well.


Not sure most people are bearish now, from my perspective most seem bullish (hence the bearish bias).
The fear & greed (https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/) index claims a neutral market, so I think both of us are wrong to have either "natural" bias.
Regardless of this, I wouldn't pull any buy or sell triggers before we break down below the 200 Day MA, or break above $10.5K.

Getting your stop losses triggered = losing money.

Look at what happened to shorts (at the bottom, in red):

https://i.imgur.com/zvtOwyc.png

We can see that shorts increased by ~30% in the $7,000s and peaked at the bottom on October 24th. Then they were squeezed and short levels bottomed out on October 26th when price hit $10,500.

Also, consider all the price action in the red box. From September 24th to October 25th, the market ranged below $8,800. Considering that price is now in the $9,300s, all sellers/shorters in that range who didn't buy back lower are now sitting in loss.

We can also be fairly sure the vast majority of traders did not buy back lower. Why? Sentiment was deathly bearish in the $7,000s. Everyone expected at least $7K; most people expected $5K-$6K if not $3K. In hindsight, we can now see this was extreme bottom selling sentiment. Bears weren't buying back in the $7,000s and this is confirmed by looking at short levels.


Wishful thinking. Most traders are losing money.

The breakdown on September 24th was extremely quick. Price went from $9,400 to $8,600 in a single 15-min candle. We can tell from short levels that hardly anyone shorted the top.

We then spent a month trading below $8,800. Everyone shorting at these levels either stop lossed or got liquidated already, or they are sitting on unrealized losses right now. A small minority surely profited, but sentiment and commitment of traders strongly suggests the majority did not.


It's not just sub-$8,000. The entire September 24th to October 25th trading range was between $8,800 and $7,300!

Why do you seem to think most sellers in that month-long range bought back in profit? The magnitude of the squeeze (third biggest daily gain in Bitcoin history) suggests the opposite. There was incredible desperation to buy back in at loss.


Based on my experience with time and proportions, I'd say it's extremely likely we get a higher high whether we're in a bull market or not. There's a decent chance we could hit $12K and then go full bear.

Betting on full bear from here though? That's very dicey to me.


I think "neutral" is rather accurate, and what I'd hope for. Like xxxx123abcxxxx, I think we are in a minor Wave 2 pullback. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531) Wave 2 is generally characterized by confusion between bull and bear because it occurs at the beginning of a trend change.


I just mean I'm glad not everyone is bullish. It's a bad feeling to be long when everyone is bullish. :)

In what world? If you shorted say $7.7K, then moved a stop loss to $7.5K (or even break even), the you would either make money or break even generally speaking. Obviously the odd il-liquid could cost you money, but that's again the traders fault of using unreliable exchanges. I use stop losses all the time to book profit, as I prefer it than selling a good price then seeing the price move further in my favor. A stop loss is nothing more than an automated market buy/sell based on a certain trigger price, to reduce losses or pre-book profits.


I going to generally just agree to what you said, especially about people rushing back in after selling or shorting $9k, it does make logical sense. It also sounds like a bad case of people making plays on bigger time frames then losing money on buying back in on smaller time frames which is always an awful idea, unless it's to save being liquidated of course. I do wonder how many who shorted $9K also bought back in at $10K and will again panic sell below $9K again (if it breaks below). Seems some people are reliable for donating profits to others traders as if it's a habit  ???

Admittedly I don't follow leverage so much, how long or short people are, how bullish the market is etc, but otherwise what I consider the probabilities of certain moves and their measurements are. I'm not very interested in what everyone else is doing, especially if by your accounts they have been doing it wrong recently. In summary, to me, breaking below $9K would always be a risky short, a hedge at best, given you are shorting a bull market - you are likely to get burnt if you don't know what you are doing.

Especially now we are more or less undeniably in a bull market (above the 200 Day MA and finding support from it), but that also doesn't mean I can't be a little bearish short to medium-term, given how people love to panic sell when they see price breakdowns  :P

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index.png