Bitcoin Forum

LONGS position are building to an unprecedented level on BITFINEX:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blobba7df436c1d3f480.png

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

This is an unprecented balance.
It has been constantly increasing since a month, more or less.

What is happening? It doesn't appear correlated to BTCUSD price.
It started with BAKKT launch: maybe there is a reason for this?
Really weird.

I am trying to figure out, I will let you knwo if I discover anything.

I think people are piling up on the cheap btc. Am I wrong?

Isn't this practically the same thing as buying the fucking dip?

The question is, do the bears have enough ammo to blow up the long johns?

If not, it will be helluva bear steak party.

It is possible that on that date they believed that the bottom was there and the longs began to climb.

Yes, you are basically right: getting long on the future means getting (leveraged) long on Bitcoin.
But the increase is too violent and constant to be only price related.
The long amount is well above historical standard , while price is well above lowest levels since this year. In addition to that the LONG amount has beeen steadily increasing, even when price was humming around price resistance (before the last dip).
This is to answer also to VB1001.

So must be (also) something else.

Whale dumping BTC cash while building leveraged long positions on futures?
Surely mantaining this long position is costly: being underwater on those longs future positions is costing the holder of such positions a huge loads of margins, to be posted to keem them open.
So big swinging dick position.
 

this paper today on zerohedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/chinese-crypto-scammers-helped-inspire-recent-bitcoin-market-carnage

Ok, they dumped litttle bit more than 50% of their holdings. Someone with big pocket is waiting for a snap back when this sellling pressure will abide.

Risky.

Frontloading the halving? The kinds of guys that play the futures market surely look longer ahead than the retail guys?

Possibly but we going down right now it looks like some other whale is trying to bust that guy who has been longing.

If he gets liquidated it will be ugly. Otherwise, moontime.

I don't think this could be a guy alone but lots of people are involved in these longs. It is quite good for the longs' charts to be in green after a long time of see-saw games that were being played by traders. I wish BTC the best of our luck and want it to see going 'to da moon'. Yeah com'on peeps, that's one more good reason to celebrate the 'to da moon' talks, where are my fellowmen?  ;D

The size is definetly not in the realm of the possibility of a single guy, yet the coordination of whales on such extreme levels of exposure still puzzles me.

Time will tell, popcorn is being served as we speak.

ferfuxxake people, joe's the whale. it's nothing really
https://twitter.com/J0E007/status/1206916325727186950?s=20

https://leaderboard.bitfinex.com/vol:1w:tGLOBAL:USD

I didn’t know him. Thanks, so enjoyable reads!

It looks pretty weird to me as well.

On the one hand Bitfinex volume has been falling over last years and this  boom of longs is occurring only there. I think Bitfinex volume alone can not push price up (or down) if other big exchanges disagree about the direction.

So the whole thing may have no consequence except for a "bloodbath" among bitfinex bulls if market keeps moving against them.

On the other, Bitfinex is tether’s home and we know how this stablecoin matters when it comes to boost bitcoin price.

Bitfinex offers little leverage (3x) so bulls can go “underwater” deeply before their stop losses trigger  a classic “long squeeze”.  

When longs started increasing (on 23rd Nov), price was roughly 7200$ so, for now,  bulls can likely afford to hold their positions open.

Some big whales claimed to buy at 6k levels (https://twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/1184154809726844928). Maybe they just get going.

Or maybe someone knows something really bullish we don’t.

We cannot know who is taking this position nor their intentions. We do know that tether was born on Bitfinex and has had many questions regarding a proper audit.
Is it possible that the money creating the parabolic long on Bitfinex is illegally printed tether or some engineering?  If so, the entity creating this long may have planned on its failure with little monetary consequence however the Bitcoin will already be in possession and could theoretically be ready for a fire-sale at market bottom creating further downwards pressure.
Maybe this speculation is too far out there but I don't trust Bitfinex or tether and we are not seeing any other exchanges with comparable positions.
Don't forget that this is all coming at the same time as government stable coins begin to take form and consequently will challenge tether in the coming year(s).  

What really flips me is that the growth is so unnatural and one-sided. The longs have to be closed at some point, I don't feel to well about it.


Edit:

So this guy just lost 24 million US dollar right now ?

Either one of the ballsiest epic moves I've ever seen, or an absolutely disastrous miscalculation one...

FTFY
I suspect there's a difference

Joe is in a lot of pain rn

25 million of unrealized losses. He's surely long

https://i.imgur.com/ysxXysh.png

Let's see how this plays out

In the meantime longs surged to 46,885.
Neverending increase.

@plutosky: would you please link the source of the image? Where can I see the chart?

This is one of the reason for BTC still being bearish in the Christmas season. Unless BTC longs are this high, the market will try to liquidate them as much as possible, thats how it is. Hopefully, we will see some bullish trend near to the new year.

Bitcoin ain't pork belly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw

Why it is meant to go down in the Christmas season?

Balls of steel. 8)

https://leaderboard.bitfinex.com/

Saying the market is snapping back is a little bit ov an overstatement, but BTCUSD is now @6,800 and the long amount keep grinding higher:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob5c6f2d99850be6ca.png

This is orthogonal to market price.

Someone is noticing Joe's position too:

Bitfinex Bitcoin Whale Currently Underwater By Nearly $25 Million (https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/18/bitfinex-bitcoin-whale-currently-underwater-by-nearly-25-million/)


Glad we noticed it first.

I have a theory:

Wouldn't it make sense to sell Bitcoin futures on CME in the first place a few months ago and now buying with your profits a long position on the traditional market ? The current 6 month CME future contract ends on 27.12. and it would make sense to expect a bullish next half year regarding the halving in May.

What do you guys think ?


This is a chart of the CME future contracts:

https://i.imgur.com/8zNUqPq.jpg

I feel like longs are being long no matter what the situation is. I mean when bitcoin is dropping down they double down on their long strategy. If you think bitcoin will go up when it is 7.4 thousand dollars, you surely think it will go up when it is 6.5 thousand dollars.

I wouldn't have the bravery these people are showing right now, there is really not that many sane person who would risk such a thing right now but the people who take these risks and invest on long for bitcoin will make profits the likes we will never see in our life time, even if not in dollar terms (there could be rich people here and poor people there) they will make huge profits in % terms which is all that matters. I hope for the sake of their sanity and mine bitcoin will soon recover and go back up.

I've noticed. It's very strange.

There are a few possible explanations:

• It reflects global trader sentiment, suggesting traders are overwhelmingly long.
• Smart money bought hard into the $6,000s dip and are well positioned for an uptrend.
• Shenanigans by Bitfinex or its largest traders.

The price action tells me the market is not overwhelmingly long because it's marginal shorts who keep getting squeezed (see the spikes on December 4th, 9th, and today).

We can't judge whether these longs represent "smart money" until price moves far above here and we can declare the bottom.

That leaves us with "shenanigans." I don't understand the exact mechanics behind it, but there's something very unnatural about the short data from June and July as well:

https://i.imgur.com/hS6iEW4.png

Look at those two vertical drops on June 30th and July 11th. One June 30th, more than 20K BTC shorts closed and if you zoom in on the hourly chart, the price barely moved and volume doesn't reflect it. Same thing on July 11th, just to a smaller extent. To boot, these shorts were closed when price was downtrending, so they weren't "squeezed" into closing. Furthermore, the vertical drop over such a small time frame proves that this was one trader or the exchange itself closing these positions.

Let's imagine this dynamic plays out in reverse this time, for longs. Price would significantly uptrend from here and these massive amounts of longs would be closed at once without affecting the price.

Really weird, suspicious stuff.......

Those longs are going get rekt™, parabolic moves are never sustainable end of, whether up or down. Wouldn't be surprised if a Bitfinex vs Bitmex event occurs to level the leveraged playing field, the latter exchange has the volume to knock those longs out in the blink of an eye. Either that, or Bitmex longs needs to start rising considerably for some stability. Not forgetting that dodgy "stable" coin Bitfinex are behind that could cause another round of damage.  Only in the low liquidity of Bitcoin markets do you see these types of irregularities.

There's nothing good or normal about the following chart and what it represents. A hideously overbought leveraged-long market:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rb0EdjlI/

Looks like the longs are coming back down to reality, pretty obvious pattern confirmed by the 3rd Red candle (using Heikin Ashi (https://www.investopedia.com/trading/heikin-ashi-better-candlestick/) candles):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EM8p3h0S/

MACD is confirming this trend change, bear-crossing in line with the first Red HA candle:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/otb9mNZq/

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still overbought (>70), so plenty of room to come down too:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tweRLhQm/

I wouldn't be long on Bitfinex right now  :D

I just hope the price won't change much to the downside when the majority of these longs is closed.

Yep, 45K BTC is no joke.

It doesn't need to affect price though. In this case, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5210434.msg53390590#msg53390590) 25K BTC in shorts were closed without affecting price. In fact, price was trending down at the time, and kept trending down afterwards.

That situation taught me not to rely too heavily on Bitfinex long/short data. I'm not sure how accurately it reflects sentiment across the market.

As expected, the technicals are playing out now, despite price moving upwards:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DYQM6Cbf/

Joe's back in the green, apparently:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENlnn9bWwAAbQjB?format=jpg&name=large (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENlnn9bWwAAbQjB?format=jpg&name=large)

https://twitter.com/J0E007/status/1214115518434742272?s=20