Bitcoin Forum

Recent logarithmic analysis by analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that, by 2023, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market could exceed $11 trillion.

This is "medium case" scenario, while "extreme case" scenario offers the total capitalization of $32 trillion, with prices boost up to 150 times. While Bitcoin exchange rate at this scenario is at ~ $141K for 1 BTC, its total market share will drop to 23%, leaving space for "altcoin bubble" (which is plausible in both scenarios).

The analysis is performed based on weekly data on the price movements of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Source: https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html (https://icolink.com/ico-news/benjamin-cowen-predicts-a-cryptocurrency-bubble.html)

What do you think? Will altcoins be the future of the cryptocurrency market, or is it too distant and insignificant future to consider? Is the market too volatile for any sort of longterm predictions, or does it sound plausible to take into account such researches while investing?

he was using logarithmic as the main data to determine the market direction. in 2 years from now and everything can happen just like there will be more taxation to the crypto users or even banning news that can come any time. There is no reason to predict it at least you have a non sense expectation to the crypto. How much experts are getting failed to predict the price of bitcoin this year has become the real evidence if it's not worth to follow that guy.

Just try to forget the bubble as the institutional has already made their own solution. Altcoin will not play a big role in the future.

It seems to me that his calculations are based on the fact that after halving, Bitcoin price should start to grow faster and on the whole cryptocurrency market should start new, much longer and several times larger than the last bull run. Theoretically, Altcoins prices should start rising with the price of Bitcoin.
However, this is only a very optimistic theory. It is enough that something unexpected happens and the bear market will last another two years. Anything could happen.

The problem with making predictions in an area that has a history of exponential growth, particularly when the prediction is a continuation of that exponential curve, is that it is very easy be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Yes the prediction could turn out to be accurate, but the range of plausible prices for bitcoin in a few years' time ranges from zero dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars. I would take every prediction as more of a wild guess than anything to rely upon.

in any case with halving, the situation in the price will change, but do not forget that, if desired, any states or billionaires can change the price as they like

Until market capitalization increases whales will definitely try to manipulate the market. However, notice that halving will reduce the "reward" for finding the block by half, and this is once again. At the beginning reward was 50 BTC, now it will be only 6.25 BTC. This will reduce the supply on the market, and let's not forget that demand is still growing. The price just has to go up.

If you think about it, it is very unlikely to happen the GDP of Germany is 3,3 Billion so the crypto market would be three times as high as the german GDP is. This is a number you have to break into little parts in order to see how much it actually is.

I always think people way overestimate bitcoin and crypto, and of course they would when their entire fortunes are resting on it. But personally, I think people need to take the lowest extreme scenario and work from that. I mean, 2023 is only 4 years away. $11 trillion in medium case? What is low case? That's what we should be working on first.

I think this research is all based on guessing.  Can it happen yep, can it completely fall flat on its face, yep.  Predicting usd value of bitcoin in 2023 is silly.  3 years from now bitcoin can be $1k or it could be $500k, there is good research out there for both.  As far as altcoins and where they could land 150x on today's value seems like a stretch for me.  That's a ton of incoming money needed on alts I just dont see it in 3 years but I wouldn't say that that assessment is based on anything but gut feeling

As a crypto person we always have to be ready with any worst condition like bitcoin and cryptocurrency will not exist anymore in the future years. From the first time invest in crypto we have to know that nothing guarantee our capital will comeback and we have to ready if all of our money will be gone. That is the only way to be happily invest in crypto :D

well , that a huge prediction , i mean if that really happen , actually we will see some signal as the time goes, i mean , ok we cant say that prediction is wrong or true, but if it going to be true , price , domination of bitcoin , must be raising every year.
but now , i cant see any signal about it.

All crypto investor will pray for all these predictions to be true:
But my honest feedback about this is that 141k per bitcoin seems too irrational, if we see bitcoin adoption, usage, and real-world use cases.

Nothing is too distant. Bitcoin has a long history of price action that indicates the study or research can be true because all coins depend on Bitcoin's health.Because it acts as the index of all.

It is a broader term to suggest the capitalization of crytocurrency market could exceed multiple times the current valuation and there are no specific coins that majority of the investments comes. The only problem i see with this analysis is the short period of the market and to calculate the  exponential growth in a short period you might not even get the correct valuation. In hindsight it is quite impressive to see but it is highly unlikely we will see an exponential growth of $11 trillion in the next three years.

I think in the short term that $141,000 number is probably a little bit exaggerated, but in the longer term, I think it's more than plausible. The only issue I have with the predictions in this article is how soon they will be. I just don't see hitting those numbers in such a short amount of time. But, I also said I didn't think we'd see $20k/Bitcoin when it was at $1,000 either. I guess time will tell.

i can't think that much forward in so specific predictions..
i can just say that there will be more bubbles in the future and that cryptocurrency market will grow a lot
without exact years and dates
just keep investing if you believe, and dont base it on articles like this but on your own analysis nd opinion

We love this kind of analysis which is in favor of us and analysis that we would like to hear. But I say, everything is possible just like what satoshi said about transactions in the future that it can be bigger as we think or there will be no transactions anymore.

At least this analysis isn't that much as what John McAfee said about bitcoin to hit $1M by 2020. We're already on that year few days from now and we'll have to wait for 12 more months with the consequence that he promised.

Regardless of these predictions, I'm optimistic as a long term hodler.

It's highly unlikely for alts to rally to any extent close to the 2017 bull run that it saw.

Sure, there could be a bubble forming soon as a result of the hype brought by BTC's halving, but to suggest that this bubble will last until 2023 is a bit of a stretch in my honest opinion. Usually, bullish sentiments carry over in around 2 year cycles before slipping into a bear market like we are right now as opposed to 4 year cycles, which is sufficient for a halving event in itself.

Also, research like this is barely useful. There is simply no tangible proof to back it up with the way how regulation changes can all of a sudden affect markets without previous warning.

Being optimistic isnt really that bad as long we do stick to these realistic numbers.We know on whats the potential of cryptocurrency on upcoming years to come but it wont really be that fast for
it to reach that marketcap numbers.

For now we should at least go with the flow, adoption is still on the move and we do hope that we do come to those points that we havent reached up but we shouldnt rush up because
things will happen on the exact time.

that depends on how good the development progress that is happening right now in the cryptocurrency. If you are thinking the bubble will come in the future and that's true no doubt about that. The market must prove it to the regulators if crypto can do better and better.
The exact date about when the bubble will come can't be determined and some people are just saying it based on their opinions.
So many times i have been following various experts and more than 80% are failed to predict the future. With mass adoption and that will become the true story but crypto must prove itself.

if we compare Bitcoin with others assets, it would still be smaller. so, it is very possible to get crazy pump
and remember that Bitcoin can pump very fast, looking at end 2017
so, it doesn't take raising every year for getting crazy pump

I think it's too much if we talk about 2023, whereas 2020 hasn't even begun. what we need to know is the potential for the coming year in 2020, because after all we are definitely looking for profit from now until 2020 to sustain our living costs. the most important thing is we look for profit for next year not for 2023.

as time goes by let alone answered, do not always dream for something that is not certain, especially if you talk about the year 2023.

You are right, every year there won't be a crazy pump. because indeed if we wait for the pump to come on the crypto market then we must be patient. bitcoin still has many opportunities to develop and is used as the best investment asset. at that time we will not be able to determine when we can only try to remain confident and patient. if we cannot wait to invest long term we can try investing short term or with daily trading. with such busyness, we will enjoy analyzing every movement of assets that we have in the market.

I think they might be right but now we depend a lot of what governments will do until that year which can affect hte crypto much or less, all depends if they put a lot of tax for crypto and if they will ask exchange to put all customer to make KYC to use them, hope will not be the case and on this way we can have a good grow in price for crypto.

I would agree to most of the analysis and can say that if blockchain implementation is started then new Altcoins will be born and they'll have use cases accordingly. An Altcoin bubble may be definitely a logical thing.

The fact that is happening right now if there is no a lot of altcoins are having use cases. The blockchain implementation already happened since bitcoin was born but almos 10 years have passed and there is not altcoin that has a real usecase and only some used its own platforms.

What is the point in having different alt coins, we need just one coins to transact globally and we have bitcoin for that, the market will not flourish if we have a thousand alt coins to do different things and once we find a proper scaling solution i am sure all these situation will change and if the capitalization has to reach the trillion dollar it has to come from bitcoin investment and not from any other coin.

of course its not , don't even think if smaller than bitcoin it can have a massive pump, theoretically smaller means that is unpopular than bitcoin, and that mean that have low interest , how u think a coins with have low interest by people have a high pump ?

Something you wouldn't really believe until it happen 23% dominance for BTC is just mad when all we are dealing today are for BTC. Currently 68% so why would it shoot up to $140K if its dominance will just be 23%. The possible reason is if there is a new token that will dominate and are widely known already by the people on the internet.

But why would it take 4 more years from now, halving will happen in the next few months. Many expects the bullrun will happen after 6 months.

For me, these analyzes are completely absurd and I would not call them scientific. Not only FUD can change the price future. In my opinion, it is more likely that a scientific discovery will completely change the future of cryptocurrencies. It is enough if it turns out that quantum computers are a threat to blockchein and that will be the end.

Well, Bitcoin is not just for trading or payment use for services it is also use as an investment asset. Investing in more cryptocurrency is basically just important if you are afraid to invest all of your money alone in Bitcoin only. Altcoins do exist because they tried to be like or as an alternative for Bitcoin to be used also in trading.

Alts had been created for various reasons;

-Trying to compensate on what Bitcoin do lacks when it comes to features.
-Alt owners trying to get some marketshare on creating their new coin.

But it doesnt mean that it would able to bubble up its capitalization on that high.There would be a
season for sure but same as said that going to those numbers is unreal.

I will likely to believe in long term predictions than Mcafee’s 1 million per BTC by 2020, but maybe he’s prediction is right who knows. Maybe the halving could contribute for the BTC’s price to get more valuable that could trigger investors to buy more if they are aware of this kind of implementation.

The fact is that no one believes McAfee forecasts and it is not clear to me why his statements in relation to cryptocurrency are published.  But how much can it influence the current situation on the cryptocurrency market, because cryptocurrencies are unreasonably believed by any negative statement of users? But no matter how I treat empty phrases, I like the words of this person, who suggests that Bitcoin will increase in price by 250 times and the process will begin in 2020.

though this is a very positive and really love to read article yet this may cause misleading and over expectation .

imagine for just 3 years we will be seeing 10's of trillions of dollars in market capitalization?i don't thing we will be seeing that high this soon though this is only my opinion as i am not a expert.

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How i wish this will come true as i can afford to hold my bitcoins that long,and i can also wait even for longer if this will really happen in future

That's pretty conservative, i am expecting 500x or more total altcoin bubble next from current numbers. Imho people will fomo in on last stages and there will be a lot of those who don't understand the market cap valuation, they just see "cheap coins" like last time and they will probably buy the top.

Totally true. Although most of us didn't think 5 digits would come so soon after breaking $1000 for the first time. Things can get nasty very quickly when markets are heavily manipulated and not so big volumes can cause massive price movements. Cryptos already made like millions % in 10 years, they could easily continue going exponential for the next 5 or 10 and this would mean enormous gains but 2023 seems a little too early for this kind of behavior.

Bulls are expected to dominate after halving which can continue for a year. If all goes well since the adoption is very much welcome these days, I think 2023 is really too long. 5 digits could happen in less than 3 months and we have seen this mid of this year as well which reaches up to $14k. I even thought it would continue to go up. More people have learned about BTC and crypto since 2017 and for that adoption will be much easy this 2020 and we have more app about it.

He's already predicting bitcoin price will go to 1 mil since 2018. I really remembered he was so optimistic with bitcoin price after the big pump in 2017 end. Not just him, people around the world especially who already bought some bitcoins are really optimistic about the rise of the cryptocurrency in 2018. But everything is going down, i'm sure that was a game from whales who tricked people with mass media

McAfee prediction was about $1M to the end of 2020:

https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/935900326007328768

And in my opinion his prediction is no different from the one in this thread. Any idiot can think of a price and say it out loud. In the cryptocurrency market, nobody can say that they are wrong, because anything can happen here.

Do a search for Logarithmic Analysis, there's no such thing.  The nearest thing google comes up with is Log-linear analysis.  Or is he talking about Logarithmic Regression models?

Thing is you can use better or worse reasons for your thinking :D Don't think prediction == another prediction as they are based on presumably different ideas. One might easily be more correct than the other. Also anything can happen, sure, but there is % of each event happening and the magic is in making assumptions in your model that are the closest to reality.

There is nothing as such and anyone can come up with their own theory and bit of diagram to prove their point but when it comes to crypto these things doesn't matter as we have come across hundreds of such analysis and speculations which turned out to be personal opinions.

If that's the case, we should already start investing to altcoins that has potential to become successful in the future. If we are going to stay stagnant with our current investment and start searching for new altcoins. The market indeed is too volatile for a longterm predictions but in order to counter that problem, we just need to simply become aware of what's happening in the market everyday. If we really want to make sure our investment would work, we should give lots of our times on it and exert effort always to know how to make your investment successful.

It is pretty classic research made by past data. What he did not incorporate is next economic crysis. Crypto never saw one so far. So he cant see it in existing data.

Well, crypto is basically not tied to anything so bubbles in the future are very likely to happen
thats just the way it is

i dont know if the entire marketcap will go up x150, but highly likely because there are also many new coins coming
so there can be a lot of new money in the space, but it will be divided to more projects than now
so the difference between prices can not be much higher

It's just a guess. If it's based on logarithmic growth, then there is a huge linear margin of error. The values he's giving could be orders of magnitude wrong, so it's really more of a guess based on history than a proper assessment. As for suggesting what will happen in 2023, that is a lifetime in crypto terms, any prediction looking that far ahead is likely to be wildly inaccurate.

That's 100% correct. Anyone who think that such theories work in crypto must correlate recent bull run from 6600-7600$ to such theories. Crypto is still in its early days and its analytics is yet to arrive. Till then just hodl.

What a sad story. ;D
Anyone can make their own personal prediction and speculation but it doesn't mean that they were right. Sometimes it takes a few read or research to actually know what we are investing. When talking about investment we should research on how to minimize the risk of losing when the time comes. Don't just invest because it is being hyped, one day you will find yourself scratching your head with full of regrets.

I don't think anyone doubt there would be another Altcoin bubble, the question has been when it would take place. The current market is providing background for the next bull run, most of these Altcoins won't make it to the next bull run and they will die and pay way for the next crazy bubble market. Just don't miss out

i am sure that the will be a bull run and it'll come a lot before 2023 .. 2021 or 2020
there is so much hapenning behind the scenes now so it wont take that long

It looks like if he was using the formula to calculate the future price of crypto and someone has already used this in the past to determine the future price of bitcoin.
Why people are so easy to predict about when the bubble will come for sure.

I am yet to see anybody that was able to predict the future rightly. It is not just possible and that suggests that his research is mere speculative. It can happen or do otherwise. 3 years is too way ahead to make such assertion at this moment. Many things not taking into considerations will still come to crypto space like taxation, regulation etc. Let's just hope for good to all digital currency and enhance the global adoption

Not just a bull run, i'm sure there will be some shocking news will coming from crypto world that will make a big change from cryptocurrency and there will be hard times from crypto because digital currency is already worldwide right now and there are many big projects that can surpass cryptocurrency

In my opinion, the altcoins bubble has come and gone forever. The bitcoin sidechains will destroy all altcoins. The lambo-mooners looking to get rich quick all arrived very too late and got their pockets drained. there will be no bull run for altcoins, but 10% increases if you’re lucky, followed by 10-20% decreases. It’s been this way for the past 20 months and will continue like this for a long time because altcoins market is still well overpriced, except ethereum. Time to be a realist, I know it’s not what the community wants to hear but it’s time to wake up.

I do somewhat agree to this sentiment where its really time to wake up and dont really expect too much that we would see again those lambo or to the moon thing on alts.
Im not saying it wont happen again but chances would really be that slim.Those good old days were gone where anyone is almost celebrating and enjoying profits to its fullest
but we have seen on how the market become and experiencing a long time sideways or even bearish trend.I dont expect on 150x capitalization in 3 years time.

That would be a nice scenario but everyone is waiting for McAfee´s prediction: 1 million USD per Bitcoin by the end of 2020.
So still it is a far away from his prediction.  :D Waiting for the TV show, McAfee  ;D.

Ahead time it seems it is hard to predict, still, no one knows what will happen at that time in crypto price. But as long as you can hold your crypto assets until that time, it is much better because I'm sure bull run will may occur or probably there is altcoins bubble and Bitcoin will lead and going to the moon. But as I have said, it is unpredictable and no one knows. Let's better to wait and let the time will reveal the truth.

he knows if his prediction totally a non sense prediction and that's why after created such prediction and mcafee was running away and he never appears again. That such a garbage prediction that always come to create FOMO or to give him the advantage. 1 million prediction and I guess that guy was drunk when he was creating it.