Bitcoin Forum

Don't lose sight of the BIG BEARISH picture! So many people are calling the bottom right now, but the big picture analysis says that the bottom is NOT in.

https://cdn1.worldpng.ru/uploads/2019/12/30/1e9b4c35730b0bb23b3bf93ac61299b2-full.png (https://worldpng.ru/) upload image (https://worldpng.ru/)

As far as I'm concerned it is always a good time to invest in Bitcoin. The fud campaign since this summer is created by no-coiners that missed out the 4K level and are trying hard to bring the price close there again.

I care more about adoption and how we will be able to open markets and sectors of the economy for Bitcoin to be used. Short term profits are for speculators.

Don't hear anyone analysis in crypto.Hard to believe that its dip. Make your own research before buying crypto.I think this buying bitcoin right now is good choice.maybe it can be lower but not more than 6.8k$.But I am trying to buy and hold,doesn’t matter what is the price.Because I am long time bitcoin holder.Do better to go and buy crypto(own Choice).Keep in mind invest those money that you can afford to loss.                   

they are a line of people who are hurt and also a line of people who left behind to buy at the lowest price of $ 3000 at that time, now they are popping up by analyzing like experts when they really want to buy cheap, they want to return the price of $ 3000 and get off track from the analysis in fact, many people like this have sprung up on the forum thread, I assume they are just jealous people, don't ever trust their analysis

This discussion about the Bottom is a discussion that begins and takes a long time to discuss and never ends in any plausible conclusion. When the price was $3300 they said the Bottom was $2500 and others said the Bottom was $1000. oddly enough that the price went up to $12000 and when the price was already over $10000 the same people who They said the Bottom was $1000 They started saying that the Bottom was $3300. I know technical analysis is not crystal ball, but most of the time I see charts with many lines and all to prove that the price will fall and then the price goes up a lot.

I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion but the truth is i doubt if this analyst really have any idea where the actual bottom of btc or crypto will be, so many times btc has proven many analyst wrong, i believe the market can determine the bottom eventually, one thing i do know is that btc has achieve so much since the past 10 years.

No one gonna stops me from investing in bitcoin and altcoins. For me, bitcoin and other coins in the top market are for the long term. So I always ignore short term speculators and it doesn't affect me, they are one of the wannabes. The fall down of prices is not new, it really happens but if you believe, you'll gonna get what you wanted.

Don't rely on anyone's analysis. Everyone should do their own research. What do we mean by doing your own research? You need to learn to read graphics. You should also follow the news about Bitcoin closely.

There were times that we will no longer care whether it's dip already or not as we already plan it to hold longer and see what may happen in the future, as I already allocate amount that I intend not to use and just keep it as BTC till the market recovers. We need to set into up to when and how much are we going to hold to avoid panic due to news.

Oh my, better sell me your bitcoin right now then. I'll give you 50% over what you think is the bottom, if you want. What's your bottom then, since we already hit $3.4k this year, you still think it can go lower? $2k? $1k? Happy to give you double for your bottom too. I know, I know, I shouldn't be so generous since you're so confident, but hey it's the festive season.

Trust me, most people haven't lost sight of the big picture. How big's yours?

This means that you should wait to buy bitcoin at the minimum and raise a lot of money at the peak.

If its going to bottom again, i hope its bottom will be affordable for an individual with minimum wage salary not just $3k.

On the other hand, the bear had been ruling the market for 2 years, are you not surprise why you are still here in crypto market despite this extensive bears who keep suppressing the price?  They are not done and will extend to 2020, I'm going out of crypto but will still hold my coin in my wallet if this bear still manages still.

Bitcoin is an incredible invention.It was a 8 miracle of the world.Personally, my opinion is that regardless of the schedule, bitcoin will still fall very much in price and then it will cost a lot of money.

It depends on who you ask as to which way it’s going to go in the short term. Who do we believe?  The truth is that no one knows in the short term what will happen. I will buy more if it drops. And I will hold if it rises. We should all have a strategy for either situation.

Or buy bitcoin at the current prices before it goes up unexpectedly. There are people that are always looking for the bottom and a bottom after a bottom. They have their own standards of how much the bottom is but if you will rely on them you're likely to miss the buying opportunity. If you will always wait for the said bottom of those analysis, how long you are willing to wait for it if from time to time those calls are changing?

It's good to read and listen sometimes to these analysis but we have our own verdict still at the end of it. But if you are allowing yourself to be influenced with these analysis, you will never have the time to decide for yourself whether it's the bottom or not, whether it's at the peak and time for selling.

Well, yea. Even without looking at what you said, just the fact that BTC has started from 3k this year and ended at 7k is already a sign that it ain't gonna bottom out anytime soon. Plus, if we were to look at the decades, then that's less than a dollar to 7k this year, which is an impressive feat I might say.
 No one even knows when Bitcoin would actually hit its minimum lmao. Its easier said than done you know. With how confusing its movement at times is, and how dumps and pumps suddenly happen. I'd rather just buy it rn or some time close today and just hold for a long time. Even if I don't get the maximum money I could get, I can still get the minimum.

Ha no, if you are talking about the bottom from a year ago, that is long since passed. Current bottom is 6000s. Expect to see price start rising again in early 2020. A stalling out of price after a big rise following the end of the bear market is normal. My guess is we're coming to the end of that price stall, and this bull market cycle will continue soon. Long term the second half of this year will just look like a part of 2-3 year bull market.

That's a good way, when you buy bitcoin then keep it in a cold wallet and then stay the market for a long time I'm sure this will be a surprise later when you reopen the market, because if buying continues to still monitor the market I'm sure it won't went wrong because many people would have speculated about the price of bitcoin so you were affected by it.
So what you say is good too.

In my opinion, it is always good to enter Bitcoin even though we are in a bullish trend but it is in the best thing that one should enter a bearish market, but investing in Bitcoin has no prior market highs or lows it is always a good thing to surely invest in it,

This Bottom thing, in my opinion, is not really important I think that the important thing here is to keep you update with the big all-time high that is always happening, in the sign of a bearish movement all I am doing is not keeping this a problem to always enter my money even a small amount is an additional investment in my opinion.

I don't think many people think the bottom has been hit. Actually most people are calling for $5000-$5500 to be the bottom, they are thinking the 200 WMA is going to be strong support again like it was at $3100 about a year ago.

The issue is that since everybody is bearish right now and expecting $5500 then most likely the opposite will happen. We will either go up from here, or we go down but don't reach the $5500 area.

I've seen those log charts you posted, and they sure suggest a bottom is far away but they are very high time frame charts and I don't think there are enough data point to make them prove accurate.

in my opinion prices now very cheap and the bottom already in ; the prices should be 10k at latest . all past halving give rides huge green . for this reason everyone should buy right now . but wait buying cheap and cheap is not good for me

Well yea, bottom? I doubt BTC would go there. Not at least in a few years I'd say. You could even say that BTC is approaching its peak right now, and only when the second to the last halving or halving occurs would BTC probably reach its peak,and only after would it dwindle. That is, as long as the interest of traders and investors alike are still aligned with the end goal of the existence of BTC.

They are cheap, but not at the bottom. 10k? That was just due to a sudden pump, and there was no way the price was gonna stay there. Hell, I'm actually glad it's in 7k rn cause I can be rest assured that it has regulated there and market pushes or pulls wouldn't easily influence it.

Even halving will happen this 2020,we can't still say that's its a deep already. Chances are the  price can still move down before halving happens. Bitcoin is volatile and even there are events that should affect the price, it's still not happening as the trend change after the ATH effect. It will all depend on us were to decide on selling and buying.

Technically, I would say that the bottom has been hit already this year when Bitcoin hit the $3,500 and that was the very bottom that I know within this year. But if someone wants to know about the another bottom well, I don't know what bottom are they looking up. Bitcoin support is quite strong that it stays at $7k after it drop from $6k.

Bottom is the price you set yourself while a stock or crypto coin is falling. No one can be sure of what will be the exact bottom, it can be only confirmed when a stock or crypto coin start moving up and that was too late to buy anything. So make up your mind and start buying at price you think is minimum.

So are we really going to risk the waiting period?
What if doesn't happen?
I dont think so.
There are cases in bitcoin where analysts are making the wrong prediction and it happens a lot.
Yeah, I want to buy it cheap but not to the extent where I might risk it too much of the coming uptrend wave.

Bitcoin is still in a bear market after two years, and had some sideways movement during the last year.
Its true the bottom is not in, but if you buy small amounts, and plan for a long period, its not a bad idea to buy now.

Remember that we are in halving year, and even if the cycle got stretched, the probability of a reversal will grow larger as time passes. So buy it now or regret later.
For now, the price is still pointing to $3500, but any sudden bearish movement could trigger a reversal.

Well, taking an investment into BTC is already a risk in of itself. Analysts do indeed make mistakes, that's why the practice of DYOR is always followed in trading and investing though. Just invest what you can and imo, you should be fine. It doesn't need to be a huge investment of thousands to millions of dollars. Even a hundred is fine, as long as you can handle the amount and it being subtracted from your total budget is not enough to affect your life.

Isn't Bottom the price of BTC after a bear run? or at least at a certain period of time, where it doesn't go below that. Like for this few months, the bottom of BTC was around 6.4-6.6k iirc.

Bottom could be around these prices, there is no way bitcoin stays the same so I am sure there is still a "possibility" of bitcoin going lower that is for sure, I wouldn't disagree with that idea but what if the price suddenly increases like hell? That means the bottom at $7k and then a new price of $15k or whatever bitcoin does crazy would mean $7k was the bottom, sure there are always chances of going down to $5k but we can't just let that above $10k possibility go away neither.

So, I think bottom is where we decide next the bottom is, if we decide to go down then that is the new bottom, if we decide to go up then this is the bottom and that is why what happens in the future decides the today's prices so much as well. I personally think this is the bottom, we are not going anywhere under $6.9k at all.

If you are expecting a bottom in the next few months then you are free to hold your investment and invest during that period, i really do not trust any analyst who predicts the market simply because they do not have the data they require to analyse because the market is just ten years old and you cannot trust an analysis like that. If there is a bottom coming up i really do not mind investing further and wait for the next rally.

We have like what 5 months from halving? I think we have reach the bottom when we hit ~$3.4k last 2018. And I don't think that we can go down even further. At $1k-$2k BTC per pop? Nah.

We could be trading sideways around the $7k-$8k for months and unless there's a massive FUD then we won't see any further down-side, in my opinion.

Yeah I agree, the chances for some more boring sideway action are rather high.

We'll only know that in hindsight. It's impossible to know at this point whether the rally to $13,880 was a bull trap or the beginning of a bull market. Personally I think the best Elliott Wave counts and Wyckoff schematics point to a new bull market.

Either way, we need to break the June highs or the December 2018 lows to know for sure.

Nonsense. It doubled in price in 2019.

Without new highs it's still a bear market. We can't even stay at 50% of the ATH. Take any asset, divide its value in half, then again go a bit lower to 40% of ATH where we're at now and tell investors that it's bullish. Dead cat bounces in a bearish trend are common but they are only dead cat bounces if they can't even form a double top. An 80% price decline and then a pump back to 50% of ATH and a fall to a higher low is a clear sign of consolidation. If the fall after the bounce would be to a lower low it would be a continuation trend.

Looking at the same chart you are using I already see that their is a flaw on your analysis. If you are seeing the price movement from point (4) to (5) you will see that the volume is already falling yet the prices are still increasing the price increase even started at point (3). Volume analysis for a longer time frame like this one makes it inaccurate as there are too many price movements and other indicators not being considered. Still looking at the chart we can clearly see that the overall chart is going up and there is no clear indication that a strong down trend has been formed at present.

The bottom was hit, we wont go back on that level again. The halving hype will soon to conquer the market and it will make the price of bitcoin big again so watch out. The FUD will hurt the market but the halving is here to revive the market. Don’t look for any bottom now, you have to buy and get more bitcoin before its too late.

technically that just makes it a ranging market until proven otherwise. the beginning of any bull market is established by uptrending to lower highs.

the 345% bull run we saw in the first half of 2019 is definitely not bear market behavior, either.

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How bottom is it? 2018's bottom was $3k, 2019's bottom was $6k-$7k. And we are still at the bear market, since we can't really say when will the bull occur and the volume of investors who are selling btc are still high, then the bear is still here. However, there are so many predictions that it will recover soon especially with halving event's approaching. Remember that technical analysis will change, too. So, do not rely on this.

These charts don’t work for bitcoin. It’s not a good strategy to follow these charts and other data like traders in forex and oil market do. Price of bitcoin is already low but that’s not guaranteed that’s its minimum bottom. Bitcoin may have a bull run from here or it may go further down. Buy some bitcoin at current price while spare cash for next bitcoin dip.

I am in crypto trading for almost 2 years. I never understand what information can be extracted from these charts. These charts only show how bitcoin or other coins behaved in the past they are no way a metric to predict future bitcoin price. Few days back we saw bitcoin price hike that took bitcoin from 6700$ to 7800$, can anyone correlate that price hike to chart?

You can draw pretty triangles and lines. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. In the end percentages are your friend and identifying long term trends. I made some extremely good calls based on TA, and I made some bad ones. But pretty much nothing beats the "stress free" hodl philosophy.

The key with TA is to react to the market, instead of trying to predict it. That's the biggest mistake people make. They draw incomplete triangles, harmonic patterns, EW counts because they expect them to play out, when really they are just exercising their own biases. When you see breakouts from obvious patterns or S/R, that's the time to act.

I haven't been trading this BTCUSD chop at all.


I'm a big fan of hodling but watching your portfolio dip 50% over 6 months isn't exactly stress free. :P

We should be at least 60% of the ATH to be out of the bear market. Price should stay there for at least six months, but in fact it just stayed there for some weeks. This is not a true recovery of the price. What we had in 2019 were a series of bull traps, which confirmed we are still in a bear market.

Bear markets are characterized by continuing lows. The 2019 rally can't be called a bull trap until the 2018 lows are broken. Until then, we could still be in the early stages of a multi-year bull market, similar to the late 2015 or early 2016 period.

Here's some food for thought. This is what a typical impulse looks like. The first retracement (Wave 2) typically pulls back 61.8%-78.6%:

https://www.dummies.com/wp-content/uploads/230901.image0.jpg

In comparison, BTC has retraced 69.3% of the 2019 rally. The June-December pullback may have been Wave 2 in a long term bullish impulse. ;)

Are you sure today is have reach of bitcoin support and near bottom price? I think bitcoin still have chance for lower price and looks big chance for bitcoin go down although many prediction bitcoin have near with bottom and support price, I can't see bitcoin will grow to higher price after many time always down without have bad news but bitcoin never reach to higher price.

The most important rule when it comes to try to determine the direction that an asset could take is not to look at what the price did in the past but to look at what the price is doing right now, and right now the price of bitcoin is going up very rapidly however I believe the price is becoming overbought and we are bound to see a correction probably during the next days but we should probably remain above 8000 after that correction, but if all what it is happening was the manipulation of the whales then the price could go down even more.

Yeah I've never questioned this. I think a couple years from now nobody will even look at this period as a down period in the market, they'll just see a section of the bull market where price was consolidating before more gains. The second half of 2019 will likely end up being the same as from end of 2015 until May(?) of 2016 when the price went flat for 6 months after the initial surge off the bottom. I don't know what people were saying the market was doing at the time, but now it just looks like part of that 2 year long bull market. And the past 6 months of general downward movement (which I think is over now) is just part of what is again a long multi-year bull market. If indeed the downward phase is over it lasted almost exactly as long as the same phase of the bull market last cycle (6 months).

bring it on Fudders ,we are waiting for lower price so we can buy again,but it seems that it wont come this near because bitcoin is now conquering to break the $9,000 value.

and according to the market position now?it may take another days to hit the target,so be aware and get ready .

That analysis was made two weeks ago and we know that in the market of cryptocurrencies two weeks is a lot of time, if you take a look at the hourly chart of bitcoin, bitcoin has been bullish since January 4th so we have been experimenting a very nice rally, I'm just getting a little bit worried because at some point a correction needs to come and it will be interesting to see how big the correction is going to be, if it is just a small correction then we could see the market going up even further.

Who the heck told you that a rising price is bearish?

I would have given this some credibility at least if BTC didn't just recently recover from $6.5k, which was the bottom of the bear market that a lot of people did call successfully, to nearly $9k now which is the resistance that it is currently testing.

You were completely wrong on this one, buddy. BTC did bottom and with the halving rolling around there is virtually no chance that it's going to turn bearish in a significant way all of a sudden.