Bitcoin Forum

Political tensions between the US and Iran continue to increase following a recent drone strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani. Shortly after news of the attack broke, the price of Bitcoin suddenly increased, leading some industry commentators to draw the conclusion that Iranians had flocked to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. However, data from exchanges like LocalBitcoins shows otherwise.

Data taken from peer-to-peer exchange volume tracking service UsefulTulips.org suggests that this convenient explanation for the increase is flawed. According to the figures presented, interest in Bitcoin in Iran is actually declining.

Full Source News here (https://beincrypto.com/iran-buying-bitcoin-narrative-quashed-localbitcoins-data/)
(Not click campaign, just sharing information)

https://i.imgur.com/4SwGvJT.png
Source: https://coin.dance/

As it seems Iran investors have diminished their transactions by a big margin since 20180's half.

As i have previous mentioned here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215033.msg53526079#msg53526079 it is a continuation of the network's blockage.

But this news comes to inform ourselves that Iran transactions have in fact cease to exist atm or at least considered.

Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin is gradually growing. If this morning the price of bitcoin, according to CoinMarketCap, was $ 7,880, now it is $ 7,922. If interest in bitcoin in Iran has not increased, then maybe its price increase is due to the fact that in May it will be divided in half, or rather, the reward for each new block mined will fall by half? If this is so, then until May, bitcoin can very strongly increase in price.

To much has been made of this drone hit.  The USA droned a terrorist.  Period.  Obama did it 4000 times during his presidency.  President Trump does it once and all the traitors and state run media yell "IT'S WWIII".  LMAO.

Anyway, If it takes another Iranian high value terrorist to die for Bitcoin to keep rising then fire away. 

you can say these are all politics.  bin laden was also killed in Iran but that didn't stir all to world war but just to make panic because its a rep president that did it the media wants to escalate it by their own.

we are left puzzled who are pumping the market. if its not the Iranians who are buying BTC, then perhaps the governments trying to collect more BTC? 
why are we clueless?

I think people are just trying to get a safe haven by buying bitcoin, gold. I understand this is partly because of this Iran-USA tension, and some heavy traders are just going to trade this news.

This may be attributed to the growing tension between the US and Iran during that time, especially the sanctions imposed by the US on Iran relating to trades and economic partnership. Add to that hot mess, the decision of the Iranian government to shutdown its internet connectivity to the outside world on November 16, so there were little to almost no trades posted concerning bitcoin at that time. Right now, the Iranian government is gradually reconnecting the internet to its constituents and the sudden influx of trades caught us off-guard when reports surface that bitcoin is being sold there at a premium price of $24,000 which, sadly, isn't confirmed nor denied by someone actually living inside Iran.



I'm pretty sure some people in there are still buying and not actually stopping from doing so. I mean, they have experienced massive bouts of inflation ever since the US sanctions came into play, so it's just obvious that they should hedge their assets somewhere, somehow, and bitcoin is the closest and easiest asset they can get without having to go through hoops just to obtain those.

The geopolitical issues and the instability on global relations surely have forced people to cling on to a new asset class that they aren't fully educated on, and that is bitcoin. While I'm quite positive on what's happening on the surface, I still don't believe that what we're gaining on bitcoin is worth it when we lose a lot of things in the process i.e. geopolitical stability and close foreign relations to each other.

This data is based on Localbitcoins volume. It should be noted that Localbitcoins banned Iranian users last May (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/localbitcoins-denies-service-iranian-users), shortly after implementing KYC. Those two factors would explain why IRR volume has declined so much on the platform.

I'm always skeptical of these "Iranians/Hong Kongese/Lebanese/Cypriots are buying bitcoins" narratives. They usually blow things out of proportion. In this case, I'm curious how/where Iranian bitcoin traders are trading because I don't think it's Localbitcoins. We're not getting the full story here.

Wow, this really sounds strange because i remember i read a news from their financial Minister where he made the report of some huge amount of money that have been withdrawn from banks and moved into the purchasing of bitcoins. Until i get some clear facts about this from the Iranian government i still think the unrest between US and Iran brought about this recent increase together with the upcoming bitcoin block reward halving.

There is that possibility that actually the new excitement in the Bitcoin industry is not coming from Iran or the people of Iran but from the very industry itself. We assumed that the war can be positive for Bitcoin and many of us are buying into it hence the surge or the jump for the price. This has nothing to do within Iran but within the whole industry. The marketplace is a big psychological game. We are reacting to the news in the same way that a forex trader in Thailand can be reacting to a bad or good news happening in France. We are not a global village for nothing.

Bitcoin price surged with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani several days ago and another surge again today after 10 rockets hit airbase in Iraq where US troops are based.
War is escalating between US and Iran, this could be the reason for the price jumps. 

I think it was meant to be a FOMO catalyst. With US and Iran's tension, paired with a headline that tells Bitcoin has become much more valued in Iran, investors would fear that they would jump on board too late even without confirming such rumors. Though there is always a split among the community who believes what, the thing is, it's difficult to know as always in a decentralized anonymous market.

I totally agree that the incidents of a possible war are causing this increase in prices, the reason is that many are putting their money in bitcoin, it is much faster than buying gold, also the problem that can be triggered by possible falls in the local currency increases despair, it is better to be a refugee in Bitcoin that at any time can rise to higher price levels, many speculate that it can reach $ 12k in the short term.

I also agree with you, Some people associate the rising price of bitcoin with the Iran war news, I think Iran vs US news doesn't really affect the price of bitcoin, even news about the price of $ 24,000 in local bitcoin iran if traced is not really the case, maybe the price of bitcoin has started to saturate so it starts to open a new trend.

As long as enough people believe such a thing could cause the price of bitcoin to go up then it will, this is a self-fulfilling prophecy, but if that is the case then this is a problem, I thought the price of bitcoin was going up simply because of its internal dynamics but if all of this is happening because investors are worried about the events currently happening in the middle east then this growth is not sustainable and we could see a decrease in the price during the next days.

Let's discuss the matter from several axes:

 - There is no reason for the Iranian government to buy Bitcoin: they can sell oils and materials in exchange for what they need. Using Bitcoin is useless.
 - There is no incentive for individuals to buy bitcoins: when there is a certainty of disasters, people will tend to buy gold instead of currencies.
 - Exchange rate change: This change is related to the fact that there is more than one dollar rate.

Many reliable media sources and television also reported the impact of the rise in bitcoin due to the influence of Iran vs. America tensions after several counterattacks. Besides, the bitcoin saturation effect is unlikely to increase without being based on something that has caused a high demand that has occurred lately.

Public awareness is being built. More people will enter into crypto world and they will explore the world with intense research. Old times are gone, cheaters will have hard time to scam people and cant run away with public's money. Regulations will be added and btc or other cryptos will be considered as sustained asset as volatility will be reduced. But what if no development occur in btc chain? Other crypto will replace btc. So development is only the way...

This aspect is getting in my interest on this. The regulation is what I'm not sure of for bitcoin because of its decentralized strength but I don't know of other crypto. It will be difficult for such regulation to stay but more people will come because of awareness that is constantly increasing.

That's a fair point, but we have had enough examples in the past where certain countries caused the price to increase according to people, but later on the price tanked while the tensions in these countries only kept reaching a boiling point, and that without affecting the price at all.

In markets the charts are the deciding factors. Could geopolitical turmoil affect the price of certain assets? It certainly could, but in most cases the price moves in the direction of the trend it was in, so it's really difficult to attribute price movements to certain events if it doesn't concern something like oil. Gold in the past has turned out to be a very bad hedge multiple times. It is more of a speculative asset than a safe haven asset.

Whenever Bitcoin breaks through some major resistance points, the price will very likely get propelled much higher, which then again will make people scream that it's because of Iran.  ::)

The entire article is based on stupidity and hype from a clickbait source, just note the facts:
 
* In May 2019 Localbitcoins "officially shut off service for Iran-based users"  (https://www.coindesk.com/localbitcoins-bans-bitcoin-buying-in-iran-in-blow-to-rising-crypto-commerce ).
* Localbitcoins still says:  "Unfortunately LocalBitcoins is currently not available in your selected region. Please look for other location or come back later." whenever you click on the buy bitcoins in Iran.
* The article is quoting the trading volume IN Iranian rial.  NOT that takes place in Iran, but that is priced and transacted in the rial. And the author didn't understand the difference between them.  Are there many people outside Iran using the rial?  Sure, but not a lot it seems.

Inside Iran is the volume that matters because that is where people want to protect their wealth or where they want to convert the rial into something that can bypass capital and currency controls.  LocalBitcoins doesn't allow that right now.

No one is buying bitcoin inside Iran using localbitcoins because it is not allowed on the localbitcoins platform.  What is allowed is people using the rial to buy bitcoin if they are outside of Iran.

Without good data showing what is being bought and sold inside Iran (and even whether it is permitted) the statement that people are or are not purchasing bitcoin to protect in Iran their wealth isn't verifiable or falsifiable.  I don't doubt that IF localbitcoins was allowing transactions inside Iran, there would be many people attempting to convert their wealth into something that they can then take outside of Iran.

The entire article seems to be based on a complete misunderstanding of the information.

How Iranians are buying Bitcoin these days as their country is under sanctions and today Trump announced even more sanctions? Localbitcoins is not an option, a lot of international exchanges too, as they want to comply with the US regulations. Local p2p trade sounds like an obvious answer, but how do the coins get into the country in the first place?

If Iranian activity is over, and the price holds up, it means it's a fair one regardless of what's happening in the world. It's sad if violence and political instability lead to increased usage of Bitcoin. I wouldn't wants deaths and fear to be behind someone's profits. It's not what Bitcoin us meant to be for. I hope both the price and Iranian situation stabilise.

People are associating the rising price of bitcoin with the Iran war news because it's what they do, every single time people look to reasons why BTC is rising, or reasons why BTC is falling
But it's part of the world, if we don't speculate about price or news we won't have so much traffic on forum  :D

it is a true free market speculation concept, not always about peace, its correlation is always based on economic tension, and this is more sad than violence because it worsens national economic fundamentals. The US even managed to provide new sanctions against Iran. if indeed news from localbitcoin proves to be invalid for btc purchases in large quantities from iran, we can monitor bitcoin again next week because today has re-entered the correction phase.

It is most likely that the recent market trend of bitcoin is due to the fact that people believe it will, so they buy, taking advantage of this event. But following the retaliation of Iran to fire missiles, the tensions seems to be neutral now, and in that regard, bitcoin buyers seem to stop from buying now that is why we are now undergoing a market correction. If bitcoin's market price stays at high, it might be because allot of hodlers think of continuing the investment up until bitcoin halving event which is indeed, truly profitable.

Bitcoin up during Iran attack United State but is not give claimed bitcoin on higher price because war or working Iran after attack Unite State, just on the same time when bitcoin have higher price Iran attack United Soldier in Iraq, I optimist bitcoin will up to higher price without connected with bigger country like United State and with other country.

Is it because of that? I don't think so. I don't think that many crypto enthusiast consider a war on iran to be a good catalyst for a pump. So are the Iranians. I mean, the US raining missiles on them is a huge possibility if things continue to escalate so i don't think they can think of crypto at this point. The market and the Iranian situation has calmed down a bit so I don't think we'll be having that much conversation about this anymore.

This is often said by friends in this forum that the news about Iran or whatever it does not bring any influence, even though the price of bitcoin goes up it is just a coincidence and finally exaggerated by some people here, I do not feel comfortable actually bitcoin rise is currently trying to escape and out of the bear market, remembering that bitcoin halving will come soon in about 4 months

Food for thoughts:

"Many have said the 2020s will be the decade of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies but a few days into the new year and the bears are still in control.

The bitcoin price has bounced from its earlier lows following news the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' elite Quds Force, General Qasem Soleimani has been killed by U.S. forces in Iraq.

The bitcoin price leaped around 4% to back over $7,000 per bitcoin and was seen trading at $7,265 on the Bitstamp exchange before falling back slightly.

Global oil prices have also soared, up by some 3%, in the wake of the airstrike at Baghdad's airport ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump."

no it isnt a co incident but the war really push the price to go up becuase people cant do trade because they have more things to prioritize like finding a good shelter and food in the duration of war  . the networks are also cut out or only limited  that is why people cant access thier crypto account to sell  . and why you are not comfortable about this rise  ? because of the war  ?  hmm . that is good because you care for others as much as you care for your self  .

People may think that Iran is buying btc and this is more than enough for great pump

I also don't think everything was just a coincidence nor an exaggeration by people here. The price of bitcoin went up because it has a reason. And the most possible reason we can think is the war. Aren't you going to do the same if there is a war? You have to make sure that you have money for your basic needs.

Secondary reason for recent hike in bitcoin price was Iran usa tension while primary reason was whales taking advantage of this situation and pumping bitcoin price artificially high. It was artifical hike since price is now getting down again .

I also don't think people in IRAN are trying to buy BTC. They can try to buy gold if the fear of war occurs and the price of gold is always more stable than the price of bitcoin and it is a truly safe asset. The price of bitcoin increased by traders in other countries were buying and trying to wait for fomo from the news. But as you can see, the bitcoin price quickly collapsed when the tense situation was brought to an end by the US

Hmm that's possible, yesterday's bitcoin price increase was not without reason, although we still don't know for sure but it certainly has a strong reason why bitcoin can go up. Many people focus on the bitcoin market in Iran, even though the context of Iran and the US case is at war, which in the future if it happens will involve people in several parts of the world. And this is in my opinion a strong reason for the rise in bitcoin yesterday, namely about the war that will involve the death of many people in various countries not just Iran.

I feel comfortable with the rising price of bitcoin lately, this is clearly what I want, but is it because of the war that bitcoin prices have risen even though I have read that bitcoin is the safest investment despite a world war or without internet access or electricity, but I am still a little hesitant to link news of this conflict as a major factor in rising bitcoin prices