Bitcoin Forum

2.04, <2 and ~2.04 now ?

If it is - then it is time to buy :)

Not likely.  But yeah, go ahead and buy.

Yes there could be another fake rally ahead.  

Suckers, we need more suckers!!  ::)

It doesn't look like rally to me.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1127246/triple2.png

You first.

There will be some resistance around $2.00, Even with the manipulator trying to push it higher, he has failed. IT seems that the price will fall to about $1.00. I think that will be the bottom. Expect some bouncing, but each bounce is weaker and weaker.

Btw, same thing happened in June - August period (it was longer though, but there was little panic back then) when $10 was tested several times:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1127246/10testing.png

Scenario we see now is nearly identical. It just bounced up to $2.15, but expect it to go down hard.

Odds are against you retaining the same purchasing power, however.  It'd be better to just buy what you want with dollars.  Your odds of retaining your purchasing power from the time you intend to buy something and the time you buy it are better with dollars (that's an understatement).

Heh! This reminds me of the Corsair TX850 I bought for 12.5BTC. ;D
It would be 70+ now.

The conference is close.

Don't rely on technical analysis in this market. It is too small. Technical analysis only works when enough people are watching the same patterns. It si a self fulfilling prophecy.

If someone decides to buy large amount of bitcoins tomorrow the price will skyrocket. The same is true in the opposite direction.

I wouldn't worry about it too much.  This thing isn't falling below $2.

It wouldn't seem so anyway. Too many people shouting and blabbing on this forum about how they were waiting for sub $2 prices.  ::)

What do you mean, worry? It's 3am and I'm only up in case there are more cheap coins to get. Sure I hold BTC, but their fate surely isn't decided today. Or do I look like I sell BTC below 2.5? :D haha, that's a good one.

Unfortunately, that big player there jumped in already, and we're again not seeing any action below 2.

Many people post on these forums with something along the lines of: "Let bitcoin fall further to X, I'll just buy up all the cheap bitcoins".  The only problem is the poster assumes the price will go up from that point.  What if it keeps falling further and there's other people out there thinking 'let it fall even further, I'll buy all of them at price Y'.  Catching a falling knife, is the saying that comes to mind.

the "bottom" is called "manipulator" and YES that are freaking fake walls. ask nearly anyone in this forum: we saw the appear out of nowhere and we will see them disappear out of nowhere. buy now, loose ~20%.

but if you want to buy first, lets go! mr. M is happy to sell you some overpriced coins.  :(

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/14998273/chart.png

Pretty suggestive isn't it?

If it doesn't keep going up it might go down?

It's 2.37 now - so your prediction did not work.

..

Yet..

Is it bottom? No.

Is it double bottom? No.

Is it triple bottom? Seems no.

Is it quadruple bottom? Not likely.

Is it bottomless? Perhaps.

You cannot make the time to go back to the line you drown.

Seems like you a shorting bitcoins yourself.

If this is true, I am not sure this is right, as owner of bitcoinica.

Can you clarify, please?

I don't trade myself. I posted this just for fun.

I was having a 300 BTC long position, but liquidated recently. I have never had any position over 300 BTC.

Cool. Thanks so much for the clarification.

Hey, I'm not like some evil broker. Whatever things I post regarding Bitcoinica's trading activity or whatsoever, must be from the past (already hedged orders and liquidated positions). It's also morally incorrect (and sometimes illegal) to read customers' orders and trade at the same time.

I have a rule for myself (and I hope other exchanges' owners can follow):

Every time after seeing customers' orders, intentionally or unintentionally, refrain from trading or discussing them publicly for 24 hours.

Great. I would love to see this statement also from MtGox and other exchanges.

The temptation to do this surely must be great though. I find it worrying that the operators of dark-pool trading platforms like bitcoinica (perhaps ONLY bitcoinica) are privy to the collective trade decisions of it's users when everyone else is not. Especially when these businesses are not subject to the stringent external auditing processes as real world institutions.

I know you have stated that you promise not to trade based on this information, but it is not really good enough for me because a promise is hardly a rock solid guarantee. How can we be sure you are telling the truth, and are not going to trade against your clients? Trust is just not enough, even though you seem like a decent guy zhou.

Given the open-source spirit of bitcoin, I think it would only be right to open your order books the same way mtgox and the other exchanges do. I know you said that this would leave bitcoinica open to manipulation, but my (admittedly poor) understanding of game theory is that as long as everyone has access to the information, it would be no more problematic than it is now. What do you think about this?

It's not as if the folks at MtGox still couldn't get an advantage in trading.  They know how much bitcoin and USD is sitting around off the order books.

Running the stops will be far more easier if we open our order books. I have seen stop orders that can be triggered with less than $3,000 and potential rise/fall of $0.1 or more.

I know it's not good to hide trading information, but people need some kind of dark pools to reduce their market impact. The only "profitable" and viable way for me to trade against my clients is to run the stops myself. Not just the stop orders, but also the potential forced liquidations. Even if I open Bitcoinica's order book, I still have more information than everyone else unless I tell you their liquidation points.

Whether I make the limit orders, or both limit and stop orders available publicly, I still have more information. And trust me, based on my observation (not experience), running forced liquidations is more profitable than the stops.

I just don't understand, if people can trust me with tens of thousands of dollars, why not the simple promise of not to trade against them? There are easier ways to extract profits from clients that a market maker can do, such as manipulating the prices and spreads, creating artificial spikes or even deducting their account balance secretly. These things have never happened, and will never happen under my hands!

A centralized platform is already based on trust, so let's just face it. In my opinion, hiding Bitcoinica's order book is better for the community overall, since Bitcoinica is a market maker that takes a small risk before hedging, not an exchange that is never responsible for any trade (and trade reversals).

None of these exchanges have to follow any rules... b/c there are none.  That's why we have the SEC, and US Govt.  If you don't like it, then maybe bitcoin isn't for you.... it's kinda the point that there are no rules and it's unregulated.

I encourage morals, but unfortunately, we're in the wild west.  If you want rules, go join Solidcoin's centralized currency...

@zhou: Thank you for the concise reply to my concerns. Having bitcoinica around still worries the heck out of me, but I am very glad it is you who is running it. You seem like a trustworthy guy. I hope you do not let us all down. Since you won't open your order books (maybe for good reason) then would you consent at some stage to third party auditing of your accounts and your platform?


Libertarian nonsense. I don't HAVE to wear clothes when I go out in the snow, but do you think maybe I should? Similarly there is nothing stoping me from wiping my ass with poison ivy, but do you think that would be a wise thing to do? Please inform yourself before posting your vacuous libertard claptrap.. here, I'll help that process along:

1) Bitcoinica is not an exchange.

2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucket_shop_(stock_market)

3) Bitcoin is not 'unregulated', the supply of bitcoin is very carefully regulated by the network as a whole, rather than self interested elites. You are mixing up deregulation with decentralization.

4) The bitcoin network does have rules - I cannot alter the blockchain in a way that the rest of the network does not agree with.

5) Leveraged margin trading is EXTREMELY risky, not just for the end user, but for all of the participants in the market. You cannot just open an account like this in the US without holding professional qualifications in economics/business, and for good reason. I am ALL for a decentralized currency, nowhere did I say I 'don't like it'. Read my post again if you failed to understand my concerns about bitcoinica. I assure you they are justified.

6) Just because we don't HAVE to follow well established financial 'rules' does not mean we SHOULD not. Some of them are archaic and outdated, others are VERY important. Financial institutions and market makers are audited carefully in real world finance due to the many concerns surrounding the fact they have more information available to them and can use this information to bet against their clients. Zhou has access to the stop/limit positions and liquidation points of all his clients. He can use this to get a better understanding of the market than the rest of us can, or he can move the price with his own capital on MtGox to force liquidation of his clients. He would know exactly how much would be required to do this.

I wish people would stop using words like libtard or libertard (opposite ends of the political spectrum). Both are very offensive terms and I have a relative who suffers from downsyndrome. He couldn't chose that he was born that way, he just was. These terms are as offensive if not more than any other insult I could possibly think of due to its nature. My cousin with downs is a very happy person but can also be very difficult to deal with and understand. Does this mean that they deserve to be treated as less than human? Absolutely not. This is the first time I have seen you use such a term but Jonathan Ryan Owens always uses it and quite frankly I have had enough. If you had a son or daughter with the condition I bet you would not be so quick to use that terminology.

This entire reply is off topic and would be better kept in PMs, or maybe you could make a new thread where you can talk about which terms offend you and which don't, and the people who give a shit can make sure to keep subscribed.  

I apologize if you were somehow offended. I am in fact a medical doctor by profession, and I know only too well about the struggles of families with trisomy and other congenital abnormalities. But surely you must understand that I was not using that term to refer to people with trisomy?

If we were to ban every word that offended someone, we would not be left with many. It is silly to be offended by a neologism. And please do not assume that I think that people with downs should be treated as less than human. That is a huge assumption on your part, and I myself am offended that you would even suggest such a thing.

Well I should report your post for offensive comments. In that sense you are in the wrong. I am just tired of seeing it said on here which I read it more than anywhere else. It was definitely related to your post so deal with it.

(Edit)

Ok not your post but it was a direct reply to another post in the forum. I think this is a forum where vitrol is not allowed so I was just trying to put a stop to it.

On that note, I'm going to smoke a faggot now.

What you do in the privacy of your bedroom is entirely up to you lol. Not back to the topic.

I have seen the price remain very stable over the past few hours which I havent seen in days. Are we on the way up or down?

(Edit)

I think you meant smoke a fag. I have heard cigarettes referred to as fags but not the longer term that you mentioned. That only refers to homosexuals as far as i know.

Heh. I'm just fucking with you, sir. Just being outrageous.

Now, as to your other question..

http://i.imm.io/bRFO.jpeg

I'll just leave this here.

http://i.imm.io/bRPg.jpeg

[1:55am PST on 11/21/2011]
http://i.imm.io/bSAa.jpeg

I'm going to repost my reply to zhoutong, as this thread became temporarily derailed and I don't want him to miss it:

@zhoutong: Thank you for the concise reply to my concerns. Having bitcoinica around still worries the heck out of me, but I am very glad it is you who is running it. You seem like a trustworthy guy. I hope you do not let us all down.

Since you won't/can't open your order books for the reasons you outlined, then would you consent at some stage to regular independent third party auditing of your accounts and your platform?

You think we are going to hit 1.90? I for one do not. Interesting prediction with your graph though but im not sure what donnie darko has to do with bitcoin prices.

I finally stopped laughing so I can post.  ;D


oh wow.
But I doubt the upcoming creep will be this short the network needs 10 days to mine out "the manipulator"

I would consider this option, but it's quite expensive.

Most brokerages don't open their books too, I know a few brokers who trade against their clients. (They told me secretly, LOL.) The forex market is so big that hardly any broker can run the stops himself. The only way for manipulation is to manipulate the market making price. That's why the number one assessment of a brokerage's reliability is the accuracy of the prices.

When Bitcoin gets larger (it's necessary to go to $100+ to get "larger"), Bitcoinica will no longer be a factor for instability.

I feel that there's no need to outdo a forex brokerage. If everyone gets third party for auditing, they will all miss a huge selling point - price accuracy.

just out of interest - how comes a 17 year old hast so good connections? in my whole lifetime i did not speak to a single broker so far .. :)

With the support of $2 at unprecedented levels (126 000 BTC), I'm calling a 60% chance that this is actually a triple bottom scenario. It also means that I'm back to being a bull, for the time being at least.

Until most of the bid walls go poof as soon as the price gets near. 

This is true, but if a similar percentage of the walls are solid (as before), then we are still seeing the strongest support walls ever.

Except last time we were down to $2 and all the bidwalls did not exist there was still a very large invisible bidwall keeping the price there. That along with the fact we now at least appear to have 2 manipulators/big players who are on opposite sides of the asking price I would have to agree this is the bottom. How long we remain here is definitely a question now.