Bitcoin Forum

Let me start here...

I followed this when it was at around 2000 or so; early in the chart, and watched on, as it went up exponentially overtime. Most everyone was in the wrong, and was ignorant about the numbers. I knew this, but just watched and cringed as the social media, and news reports portrayal of it.

You have resolved cases, new cases, and deaths. You can't just say Cases/Deaths = Morality rate.

Lets draw out a hypothetical situation:

Bob has a virus, and has the magic ability to infect 50,000 people in one day. Cases now stand at 50,000 and Death:0. Because death is 0, that doesn't mean mortality is 0. Let's assume; all of these 50,000 people are inside a dome and separate ecosystem. Where cases remain at 50,000 without ever new infections and let us also presume that they can not re-infect each other. Assuming it takes 4 weeks to overcome the virus. There are now 500 deaths at the end of the 4 weeks. Which puts the mortality rate throughout 50,000 recovered cases at 1 per cent. Reasonable to say, "And it has a mortality rate of 1 percent!"

But it's far from being the case.  When it was Feb 1 - 14,533 cases at 300 deaths. And the press, media, and a lot of people were saying oh it is "300/14533" its 2% or less mortality rate! And I just cringe, it's as if people look at the information as a whole, and skim the top. Without any depth or analyzation of it.          

And this extends to a lot of people, from the presidents, to social media, and so on. Lets take a look at the Canadian president Trudeau for example. "There's a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually do things"

And I again just cringed >:(

Hold a propaganda banquet during the spread of the virus, have some belt and road salad, *cough, cough*

Information:

Cornoavirus: the cost of China's public health cover-up. A crackdown on information about the virus in Wuhan allowed the disease to spread far more widely. Financial times, western press banned in china.

February 6, 2020 4:14 pm by James Kynge in Hong Kong, Sun Yu in Beijing and Tom Hancock in Wuhan
On January 18, roughly six weeks after China’s deadly coronavirus started to spread in Wuhan, the city’s Baibuting district was preparing for its annual mass banquet. On the 20th anniversary of the event, the organisers would be attempting to break a world record for the largest number of dishes served

Long tables in 10 locations were laid out with a total of 13,986 dishes, some bearing patriotic names such as Motherland in My Heart (cucumber and ham), and One Belt One Road (vegetable salad). The platters were prepared by members of some 40,000 families, according to media reports, with many of them showing up to eat the food and smile for the cameras.

Despite those happy scenes, the Baibuting banquets now stand as a symbol of China’s mishandling of a viral outbreak that has killed 565 and infected more than 28,000, and spread to at least 27 countries and territories.

The district is now facing a rising toll of infected citizens. Notices saying “fever block” in red and black letters were pasted this week on 57 communal stairwells in the district, according to local reports and photographs seen by the Financial Times.

“I feel very lucky I didn’t take part in the banquet, as I have two young kids and thought it was inconvenient to bring them along,” says Sally Zhang, a Baibuting resident. “There are now more than 10 infections among my neighbours”.

The epidemic ranks as the biggest crisis to have hit Xi Jinping, China’s Communist party leader, since he took power in 2012. Not only has the outbreak brought large swaths of the world’s second-largest economy to a grinding halt, it also undermines the party’s aura of competence.

Piecing together the events in Wuhan shows that for at least three weeks before the banquet, city authorities had been informed about the virus spreading in their midst but issued orders to suppress the news. In effect, they engineered a cover-up that played down the seriousness of the outbreak, according to officials and medical professionals.

If they have responded correctly, the world could have been spared the wuhan virus

So Trudeau, How can you have an admiration for their dictatorship if it's what spread the virus in the first place, moron  >:(

Further analyzation below into Why (Cases/Deaths = Morality rate) is incorrect, seriously the press needs to stop going by this.

Assume D = Deaths, C = Cased, t = time, and L = lag between diagnosis and death.

The media is reporting Death/cases as D(t)/C(t) for morality rate.

It's more like this: D(t)/C(t-L).    
Death(time)/Case(Time-(lag between diagnosis and death))

Again if 10,000 were inside a dome, and there was 100 deaths, after 4 days. *Press: It's 1% Everyone!!!*, continuing, 10 days later. There is now 500 Deaths. The morality rate is not 1% moron press! Its 5%!

Feb 4th: 24545 Cases at 899 Recovered Cases, at 492 Deaths. Morality rate is not 492/24545 = 0.02*100=2%  >:(

If this whole sample size was inside a dome, where cases can't increase. You need to wait out the other 24K+ cases to determine the true morality rate. Of being 24K+ recovered/finished cases to deaths = Morality rate. To say 2% is just plain wrong. If you state it based on the recovered cases/deaths it be a lot higher.

So again I cringed  >:(

Looking at all recovered cases outside of china
https://i.imgur.com/Od53y28.png

We still need to wait out more cases outside of china to see how they resolve for more data point in regards to not in china. But adding the recovered cases, 210 to 11 deaths. That means for 210 recovered cases, there are 11 deaths currently, at 47 In Critical condition!

This places the morality rate in the vancity of 5 percent. Furthermore the likelihood that you are in critical condition, so you know that long-term organ damage and shit are possible. A whooping 15 Percent!!! Can we please stop spreading this to the outside world?

And the procedures are a joke, I have basically lost faith in humanity. Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=QUCsnX2Drtc
And they are let outside to see children play, and in regards to the video, quote: "Why aren't these people wearing gloves when touching coffee dispensers and other shared products? Too much focus on masks. And incubation period is 24 days so these people can test positive after they leave the facility. If they spread it, it will hit the news waves in a couple of weeks."

There are information on cases where the virus doesn't show for 14 days, and then test postive, and/or incubation period being past 14 days. But nope, ignore all the findings, and just release them into the public. While your at it, put them outside and have them infect all the children  >:(

Japan? https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/japan-health-guidelines-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html

"Not bothering to quarantine citizens coming off ship, just sending them out into the general population" And Again I cringed  >:( >:( >:(

Enjoy the pandemic fireworks everyone in a few weeks to months time. 5>30>500>3000 in japan, 5>30>500>3000 in USA, and so on.

And this is why I lost faith in humanity  >:(

Firstly, the whole community needs to hold hands to prevent and fight the epidemic. At the same time, the government has a policy to generalize the health system and especially preventive medicine to have the capacity to advise and better implement infectious disease prevention activities.

We may not even know what happened like this, but it is certain that all do not want this to happen with the number of victims and difficulties experienced because many need sudden help. and no anticipation can be done quickly. I hope this can quickly pass and can be resolved properly with the help of a superpower that is also capable. once again no one wants this calamity to happen, let's pray so that it can quickly pass.

I wonder what it is about one virus that garners so much media attention, while another will go completely unmentioned.

Given that, a bunch is now infected in South Korea: https:/www.livescience.com/coronavirus-superspreader-south-korea-church.html At this stage, due to negligence, inadequate practices and a back-play look at the numbers, earlier on. Now it is quite likely, beyond the point of no return, and will become a global pandemic.

Enjoy the fireworks and show  :)

https://media.tenor.com/images/23b875bff0290d88431de8cb75a161c3/tenor.gif

If infections and epidemics occur, many people are affected by disasters  It is not possible for them to be cured alone if they lose their natural balance That's why we should all cooperate to bring them back to their former state. Altogether it must be resisted Meeting seminars should be arranged simultaneously for coronavirus treatment and following procedures.

Treatment and procedures for this kind of viruses can happen only in hospitals.
You cannot as an individual to treat a patient.
The only thing you can do is to take precautions from not transferring the virus to other people, so the number 1 measurement anyone to take is "prevention".

I've even tried to explain this to my friend, but he's too convinced by the press, and only looks at the total cases. Weird, given that he is pretty smart.

14 Deaths at 236 Resolved Cases. I can say, on so many levels on why he's ignorant like the press and so on.

But, what about the people that do not go to the hospital, and recover on their own?

Okay, first of all, yes, going through that correlates to an 11 percent mortality rate, and I don't go by that because that's flawed. Using out - of-china figures bring closer to a possible picture of the potential mortality rate. Additionally, there are reports from cremators that they are burning many bodies, and the information could be suppressed, considering what the Communist dictator leader did during the banquet, and the suppression of journalism and the arrests made — another reason to consider the figures outside of China.

In addition, any person leaving the epidemic area is checked immediately if they have the coronavirus. Regardless of anyone. So this removes the "recover on your own" bias. So, just look at the numbers moron

https://i.imgur.com/5YdGpOk.png

Numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/aqUqpUu.png https://i.imgur.com/aJo6HAs.png
https://i.imgur.com/Lb5T6Jf.png https://i.imgur.com/iJMxU20.png
https://i.imgur.com/CHV4lEq.png https://i.imgur.com/ecSvbYV.png
https://i.imgur.com/TdAHbbx.png (Iran is 4 not 2 atm) https://i.imgur.com/7b5KfAB.png
https://i.imgur.com/ulQ55GW.png

https://i.imgur.com/47O8tmB.png

My Friend thinks the mortality rate is 0.1% or as low as the common flu!  :D

And again, the total cases outside is 1340. It's not 14/1340!! I see everyone doing this, please, for the love of God, stop going by what the press says. It's not cases/death.
Looking at the (recovered/resolved) cases, we get 236 recovered cases at 14 deaths at 54 critical conditions.

14 Deaths/304 Total = 4.6%
54/304 Total = 17.8%

Which puts the rough figures, give or take +/- from sample variance. So could be ~3% to 7% Morality, and ~15% to 20% critical conditions. Data will get more accurate as more numbers come in.
So potentially a ~(1 in 33 to 1 in 14 chance of death), For reference, the common flu is 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10,000. That is MUCH Higher Odds

I don't know about you (Assuming Current)*. But I wouldn't want to play at a roulette table, where if the ball lands on 0 or 00 green = You die, and any of the 8 numbers you land on you win the "serious critical condition" prize

https://i.imgur.com/B5vzXzQ.png

Enjoy having pipes stuck down your throat! At least death you don't go through that

https://www.evidentlycochrane.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/ventilated-patient-e1489147649559.jpg

If this spreads to the entire world, it may wrack havoc on global economy, overwhelm the health care system, and lead to potential chaos and even war!

7.7 Billion people in the world: 231,000,000 To 539,000,000 People could die! Or close to 1/2 a billion people!

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/3upZx2gxxLpW7MBbnKYQLH-320-80.jpg

A "superspreader", ls less fictitious than some may think.

All it takes is for an infected to start sneezing around a public mass transited place, such as a metro, its station or small cramped corridors where thousands upon thousands walk by in minutes.

Various countries are working hard to contain and quarantine, but not all countries have this capacity or their health or State forces are able to contain it. My biggest concern are the most poor countries, it will spread like wildfire in those and return back to the other countries that had tried to work so far to stop it.

Only 1 person sneezing in a closed space transited by many people can infect tens of thousands.

The diseases which spread with the high speed it has a less dead ratio and if you research then you can get to know that all people died in the corona are weak in body resistance and the person with good resistance power get recovered. But the one thing we can pray to God to save us.

No one can say the Coronavirus can cure it but it is often prevented it's become a plague. it's impossible for one country of the country to stop it with the support of all Doctors got to be alerted and administer various medications and vaccines I first saw the news of it on social media and later learned that homeopathic medicine is functioning to cure the Coronavirus.

Apparently there are many infected in Italy some deaths and various places were quarantined:

Towns in Italy Under Lockdown as Coronavirus Cases Surge in Southern Europe and Middle East (https://www.newsweek.com/italy-coronavirus-iran-lebanon-israel-1488564)


Chances of spreading thru Europe and the remainder of the world is very high. Prepare yourself to remain indoors for long...

Cornavirus: Here I come!

I am glad to see that the doctors have found a drug to prevent infection on this virus and even though there are drugs that are still in trials but that's it works well. I read the news that Chinese scientists claim that this corona virus can be combated with herbal medicine. we must respect doctors who have tried to find a cure for coronavirus sufferers.

I read a news stating that a cure has been found for the coronavirus (https://www.top10gadgets.shop/coronavirus-update-protect-yourself-with-oxybreath/). Let's hope for the best! I ordered the oxybreath pro mask to protect myself.

You are right but I think it is not possible to get treatment in the hospital only Domestic methods can prevent the coronary virus. If we are careful  you will be able to resolve it yourself without having to go to the doctor for the corona virus.

For now it has killed 2,796 people, 56,000 die each year from the flu. It needs 53,000 more to match it. It has infected a tiny percent of the world population, and if you get infected there's 95% chance you'll survive. Scary stuff indeed. :P

My god, everyone is so stupid!

And these get upvoted 200+ by everyone.

https://i.imgur.com/3ijG2U4.png

Everyone says Death rate = Number of deaths/cases without even awaiting for the cases to resolve.

It's Death(time)/Case(Time-(lag between diagnosis and death))

If you have 50,000 cases inside a dome... And there is on day 3 (500 deaths @ 5000 recovered). It is wrong to say that the rate of morality rate is 1% by ((500 deaths/50,000 cases)*100). Fast forward 2 Weeks later, now at 2,500 casualties, 100 per percent of everyone else is recovered. The morality rate is 5%...

Please can someone point this information out to the mass public? Everyone seems to be saying this...

Remember, when I said the procedures in California was a joke at the hotel, letting people outside where children were playing? Again I saw this much before the OP post date. Considering the incubation period can be above 14 days, and you can show no virus for two weeks, and show it...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-outbreak-first-case-of-unknown-origin-reported-in-california/

Patient with ‘unknown’ origin reported in California

:D 

https://i.imgur.com/OQAMI0j.png

Jee, I wonder where that "unknown" origin started from...

Faith in humanity status: 0

Everybody's heard of the tip of the iceberg. The vastly larger parts of the iceberg, starting just under the surface of the water, are the beginnings of the ice we don't see... iceberg groups behind things like and including the Coronavirus...


The Fed Creates Crisis: Black Swan Events (Like Coronavirus) Light The Fuse (http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/News/277841-2020-03-02-the-fed-creates-crisis-black-swan-events-like-coronavirus-light.htm)




The Fed Creates Crisis: Black Swan Events (Like Coronavirus) Light The Fuse
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zZdOAMtewY0/hqdefault.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEjCNACELwBSFryq4qpAxUIARUAAAAAGAElAADIQj0AgKJDeAE=&rs=AOn4CLBfxuVrh_AiUofNrfMqD9Z45T862w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZdOAMtewY0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZdOAMtewY0)


8)

There have been other cases on remote locations with no tourist and only locals and someone got infected.
This attack has not claimed more life's than 911. It is a fabricated virus, using a Bat virus as base and a cocktail of others mixed in.

There a several entities who say that the world is overpopulated and the can do a real good job to do something about. Bill Gates is one of them, the financier of the  Georgia Guidestones  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones) (Ted Turner) another.

So about 9,500,000 people died this year, lets say (cough) 3000 from the COVID-19 disease that is 0.031%.
https://i.ibb.co/zbv1xnL/Untitled.jpg (https://imgbb.com/)

Please, can someone point out, a mathematician, a person with a brain? To WHO?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-news.html

https://i.imgur.com/jefCRBp.png

I mean like...  They are literally taking cases and dividing them by death 3204/93574=0.034 = 3.4%.

Cases go up, death go up. If you put 50,000 cases in a dome and there are 500 deaths at day 3. Assuming no more cases.
And by day 14 all recovered but there is 2500 deaths. Morality rate is not 1%, its 5%. So if the number locked at 93574, but death climbed up into all resolved. That would be the truth morality rate.

Why are so many doing this?

https://i.imgur.com/PKiBqIh.png

Meanwhile in Iran what does not kill you makes you stronger
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1233783635007954949

8% of Iran Government infected.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-coronavirus-positive-parliament-members-lawmakers-infected-1652133-2020-03-03

Pop open the champagne bottle, for we are about to surpass 100,000 cases  :)

Grab me one corona beer as well  ;)

https://themindunleashed.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/coronavirus-and-corona-beer.png

No... GET AWAY FROM ME.  >:(  Let me enjoy my beer in peace!

Sure just follow instructions
https://gfycat.com/delightfulunhappyaracari-facepalm-corona-funny-edit-wow-wtf-omg-lol

It is just a common flue people... Hmmm, never saw any carantene for flue.  ???

You looked in wrong place
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg53898245#msg53898245
or
https://youtu.be/rw4z-rSwNjY?t=881

I think most of the hype about the virus is overhyped and only a way for the media to distract viewers from watching or monitoring real news or agendas. We should be careful about our habits like washing hands etc, but people wearing masks all the time? Really sad...

I just don't think people realize how serious this is...

https://i.imgur.com/379IftL.png

It can appear to slow down, and seem like it won't be bad at all. And comparisons like it's only 0.001% of the world, etc. 3000 Deaths is such a fraction compared to the flu, etc.

But everyone is tricked by several factors:

1) Scale of effort reach a certain point say where you can't go beyond 10.

2) Scale of effort scales along with the chart, creating a stagnant appearing graph, where the line seems to go ever so slightly up. If you can scale the effort faster then the virus and keep it below critical point, you can resolve it, collapsing it to zero. Think like a black hole, and the event horizon, go at the speed of light, you can escape, but at some point you reach the critical point where light can't escape.

3) At some point you cross the critical threshold, and scale of effort reaches a max point. Where, it will then begin to go up very fast, and can become extremely dangerous very quickly.

We are beyond the critical point

---

And society hinges on small branches. You block a couple truck of vital supplies to a city, and suddenly it's low in stock.

The following things to come:

1) The medical system will become overwhelmed - Increasing morality rate as you don't have top tier medical treatment
2) Everyone will panic via mass hysteria, stores will be empty/low in cans, waters, and other supplies. Look at Italy, the store became completely empty when everyone panicked to the store.
3) Most if not all will be wearing masks. Do you want to go to a store with infected surfaces, sick people, and so on? A reason for some to be hoarding to stay at home and prepare for long-term.
4) Chaos is a possibility

Watch as our civilization, and our lavish life begin to crumble before your eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if there is, martial law, control-order, mass riots, panics, over whelmed medical systems.

Frankly I do not know where this will go.

Lets look into the future.

https://i.imgur.com/OAs2tfC.png https://i.imgur.com/Z4vnDsD.gif

Aware of them doesn't stop you from getting affected.Its easily getting transferred in the air which is the serious issue why everyone gets afraid of it.3% of people died from total infected and if more people affects means there will be lack of medical support so the mortality might get increases to 10% or 50%?

How many people die depends a lot on age, existing illnesses and country.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5220206.msg53979841#msg53979841

Factors that others don't consider in morality:

1) Not cases/death it's cases/death-(Lag to diagnoise) -Main post explains it better.

2) Once the medical system becomes overwhelmed, the early birds received top-tier medical care, later ones don't get access to it. Increasing morality rate higher.

https://i.imgur.com/QRBLR0m.png

3) The surgeon/doctor parents died because of the coronavirus. Jee, do you think the doctor will be performing up to par? you'd be lucky to even get a doctor in the first place.

https://i.imgur.com/0UyFquP.png

Doctor cant do all that much, its a virus after all and not some bacteria or other nastie.
Chinese patients in hospitals received oxygen thats about it. Most Chinese used traditional remedies and Vitamin C and D (sun)

Dr. Luc Montagnier ( the discoverer) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luc_Montagnier) of HIV, Proper Nutrition and antioxidants. Vitamin C is one the most powerful antioxidants in nature.
https://youtu.be/XSSpoFq7uhM?t=61

French Professor is of the opinion a common used drug for malaria also works for COVID
Director of the "Institut Méditerranée Infection" in Marseille, France  Didier Raoult (https://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/journal-de-7-h/journal-de-7h-du-mercredi-26-fevrier-2020),
https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/sante/la-chloroquine-est-elle-un-bon-traitement-contre-le-coronavirus_141893

Has anybody actually died from the virus? All the reports I read seem to indicate they have died from secondary infections, or underlying health problems, and most of those seem to have been caused by hospitalisation, or bad medical treatment.

No they die form the COVID-10 disease. Same with HIV no-one ever died form it, millions died from Aids.
In Bitcoin terms viruses work like 51% attack on the body. If fit and no prior medical issues the immune system will have enough time to get organized and deal with the situation. If existing health issues exist the virus has a larger base to start with and together they my get upper hand and get over the barrier, from then on is only a matter of time until death. Some have  health issues they not aware of, undiagnosed or malnutrition Vitamin C deficiency...
From diagnosis to death is about 2-3 days, if still kicking strong after that time changes are all be ok, of-course there are exceptions.
To stick a oxygen mask on is the main cure in hospitals, antioxidants (Vitamin C) is another.
A virus cant be killed as its not alive to start with, the host makes more of them.

The main reason the spanish flu was so devastation was the fact it did have a massive base to start from. Lots of horses and solders crammed in small space, on ships by the time they arrived lots where infected then spread all over the country.

Edit, just in:
Shanghai Government Officially Recommends Vitamin C for COVID-19
https://humansarefree.com/2020/03/shanghai-government-officially-recommends-vitamin-c-for-covid-19.html

The virus attaches to the lower part of the respiratory system, having that extra o2 could be the difference between having enough time to fight it off, or die.
And life supporting stuff can be provided, o2 for breathing, drugs to speed up the heart or slow it down, an organ in need of support, etc.
While it doesn't directly fix the initial problem, it may be that edge difference, where you don't cross the critical point and survive.

The point is, once the health care system becomes overwhelmed, then only a tiny fraction gets access to anything at all like o2.

Many people have died of the Coronavirus  These reports don't really make it a cringe  The price is increasing daily  In today's news  I saw more deaths in China than in Italy. on the average quite 400 people are dying a day  nobody has the facility to regulate it already  and therefore the doctor is dead.