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After searching this "Speculation" section in the forum or googling words like "technical analyze", you may ask yourself how can we possibly predict the price?
So, I made this thread so answer some questions according to some basic rules we all know.
We are not sure about what's happening today after a few seconds in real life, now how can we make sure about the price in the market? Is this really possible? the short answer is no! we can never ever make sure about the price. Even the most experienced and talented trader can't. So what we do with the technical analyze?
For understanding the technical analyze and price action you will need to think deeply about it.
If you remember the logic lessons in the school you can maybe remember something called "cause and effect".
Imagine we do have two people call them A and B. A hits B hardly and the B will feel pain. Here the "pain" happens by "A". (So basic)
So, this will help us on the market. What makes the price moving up/down? buying and selling happening by trading(supply and demand). And what makes a trader to buy/sell? "Their mind".
So if you want to know the real acting of the price you will need to know about the other trader's mind and how they think.
<Before knowing about the other people's mind first you will need to know yourself and your mind! It's all about the money management and self-control on the market>
We do have some method for it. For example, you may heard about the Fibonacci and the golden numbers school (Yeah sometimes even school is useful). Using the Fibonacci number we can understand about the moments of clouds on the sky and many other things. So, we can also use the Fibonacci in the market.
Also we all do believe in memory! Imagine you walk on the same street everyday for a week and every time you stop for buying an icecream from a particular store. Now after a few months you walk to the street accidentally, You may "stop" and "buy an icecream" or you may "stop", at last you will keep walking and look on the store in the memory of a few months ago.
The market will also remember some prices(spots) and react the the spots.
As you can see everything is logic. I made this topic for some people who call traders "predictors", "Gamblers" or even "Autistic". Yes, the life is a gamble and price action is science of autistic for many people when they don't/won't understand it.

Your analogy is rather long to read. Moreover, I don't think that new traders can find easy but the ending though can help. It just confirms that technical analysis is majorly the tool to speculate or predict price movement.

Yes, takes time to read. If you want to learn more you will to spend the more time. Also, whenever I post something here I'll spend enough time for it, this is how I show my respect to the people who read the thread. Otherwise, writing just 2-3 lines of useless meaningless words is not that much hard for anyone.
This won't give answer to "new traders" because a new trader is someone who know all these stuff before he even start to learn about the technical analysis. I'm talking to people out the trading world having questions or interested with trading and technical analysis.

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In any market, we do speculate and theres no such thing about 100% accuracy but at least using up TA's are much more better
rather than doing blind trading.When it comes to price actions which news or sentiments does really give out impact
and as a trader you should at least know on how to utilize up these things.

Well, It's totally out of topic. we are not talking about the accuracy and none said we can ever have the 100% accuracy. If you read my text carefully you will understand that we are talking about the market's logical movements.
About the news: the news itself won't change anything since no trader is paying attention to it. the news will be important will if traders and other people listen them and get effected buy them. supply and demented is the structure of the market not the news.

Well as far as I can understand, those technicals will not tell you where the market price will go, it will tell you where it has been, so technically, its all about on the technicality  ;D.

So it's not really very accurate, you can be guided by it, but definitely with so many factors affecting crypto, still 50/50 that any TA will be somewhat an effective tool to predict such price movements.

Predicting does not necessarily mean that you will know how the price will become in the future or how the market will react to that price, but how can you achieve profits based on scenarios you expect the price to follow.

Whoever tells you that the price will become 10,000 dollars tomorrow is a liar or a scammer, but the speculator is the one who will set several possible possibilities and then make investment plans that achieve profits or reduce losses based on the possibilities he sets.

Note: it is not just random numbers but rather possible levels.

The Fibonacci numbers are not a magic answer for all the questions and some magic solution that will make you a market "oracle" and trading genius.
I agree with your thoughts about knowing yourself first,before you start analyzing other people's behavior and the cryptocurrency price movements.Everything is logic,but logic only is not enough to predict a market.
I think that your thread is a bit pointless and all over the place.

Yes there is logic in everything. Just like how a certain lucky winner of a lottery has logic in his choices, and just like how a certain raffle winner gets chosen. But get this, these logics are too numerous, and the factors needed to consider them could reach as sky as the high, one of which is mostly untouchable by human hands. Not only that, these kinds of factors change almost every second, so trying to calculate them is an impossibility.

There are still possible factors that are solvable, or at least, factors that let the one predicting achieve a minimal amount of victory towards a certain goal. But just like there's no perfect being out there, predictions are still predictions. They aren't accurate 100% of the time. You could actually say that predictions are instead educational guesses since if viewed from a certain point, they are indeed guesses.

The point is none can tell you "I'm 100% price will rise!" unless he/she is trying to scam your money for signals, etc..
There is a logic reason for everything and we are not trading with closed eyes, if you think deeply about it you will understand the logic behind it easily.
In my thread I wrote one sentence and I'll say it again here: <Before knowing about the other people's mind first you will need to know yourself and your mind! It's all about the money management and self-control on the market>
This sentence worth like a million, if you understand it and use it, even is your real life.
But generally I'm agree with your comment. Also, than you people for contributing in my thread.

Trading action always shows to us how to buy low and sell high. I have see many opportunities of trading bitcoin and make good money but the perfect knowledge on how to buy low and sell high through the interpretation of the price action is not there. If you can get these knowledge then you have gold in your hands.

I just don't get the idea of stopping to an ice cream store, I'm slow I guess but overall, I understand what you're pointing and teaching us here. All of those analysis and other chart reading sequences are not 100% sure that it will be the exact thing to happen.

What others are thinking and most probably the majority is that bitcoin is about to reach the peak again. But not for this year, many are looking for its peak season by 2021.

It all works on the concept of understanding naked charts when you point out some important key levels where you think your asset to be heading onwards, then you don't mark those levels but keep them in mind and take action whenever the price reaches that area. For example, if you see the charts, you can make a clear decision about which ones are the highers highs, higher lows, lower highs and lower lows and then deciding a support and a resistance for that asset in your mind is not a big deal. You will be able to make good trades if your mind gives you good enough idea on the levels you see on the charts.

I understand it a little.  ;D

I do agree with the last part.
Some newbies tend to rely on those analysts as they call them which doesn't  even make some sense most of the times but yet they still have followers which will do anything they say.

I find them to be just guides. You  still need a better decision after reading all their analysis.
It should never come to an end that you just focus on what they did and just copied it.
Should never actually.

I guess most of it is prediction of course but there are people who take too many things into consideration to consider it a prediction nowadays. They check charts and unfortunately what they do is considered just "TA" nowadays but in reality it is a lot more complicated than just calling it TA because that TA two letters worth a lot more than it sounds, they check probably tens of indicators about what the price will be like and that causes them to at least have an idea what bitcoin "should" do and that kind of work on trying to figure out what bitcoin will do can't be called just a "prediction".

However, there are of course people who just predict and deal with emotions and so forth which can be considered an assumption so they do exists as well.

Your post about Fibonacci makes me laugh and puts me back in time as a newbie trader. I use to believe Fibonacci to be perfect with its marks, I never knew it depends on where you draw it from and this makes it unreliable. Most times, is about strategy and emotion, not only TA.

I believe so since whatever strategy you make and even if you follow his tracks still the emotion is one of the biggest profit or capital killer we should always set our mindset to hold on especially when we are on trade since if we getting easily panic for some situation then there's nothing we can do with that even if the TA is clear.

More like a dejavu?  ;D

Something like it happened before and then it is still happening every year but with just in a different amount.
It will still be a difficult task to make.

I do believe some analysis are being lucky, some of them are so much in luck that almost every prediction comes true. Some make fake assumptions telling people they predicted it although it was just edited date and time.
There is just no accuracy anywhere.
The price will keep on moving wildly until somewhere in the future.

In addition, we should always monitor the issues and events about various Cryptocurrency that are happening around the globe for it could contribute to the rise and fall of a coin. It could also help you analyze what would be the actions of other traders or investors. Trading and investing consists of a great risk that a lot of people should always remember because, we could not expect something to happen 100%. When doing something always have some back-up strategy to help you when your plan goes sideways; always be prepared for anything because, any possibility could happen.

If that really matters in every instances of our asset, then let's face the risk if you're thinking that your asset will provide you a brighter future. Ignore the circumstances that may arise, and let's only focus on what we dreamed for. Predictions is just a guidance for everything, and on that idea always make it as an inspiration to fulfill your dreams in holding your coins until perfect price will be achieved.

Your opinion is very unique in which we can also use in our future prediction but the rate of success are not that high because you have said already that there is no 100% success rate in predicting the market. The market is very unpredictable and very volatile, it can easily go down and it can rise in just a short period of time if the demand will skyrocket.

Cause and effect can be use only in stock market though it can be use it here but it is not that useful because big whales can easily turn the tide of the market if they like to. So our best aces if we like to follow the market is to monitor it closely like daily if you have time to do it. But if in the future, the demand will just grow that much in which the big whales can't easily dictate the market then using the cause and effect is very effective in predicting the market.

I think most of the new traders doesn't really have an idea how to read the chart they are just predicting the future price.
This is also the reason why they are losing their money on trading they doesn't know what to do and just jumping base on their predictions and base on the others people statement.

We don't have accurate predictions about the market, but we can predict that the price will move to a level of price. Even the pro trader cannot do that because the market will move to know anywhere where the price will stop. The indicator or other tools that are available at the exchange will help us to determine the price to buy and sell, but still, to get the right price, we will not know how to get it. But sometimes, our prediction can happen, and that is happening by coincidence.

I agreed that it is very difficult to accurately predict the exact price movement while some traders rely on some spot which tend to react according to the OP write up meanwhile you forget to mention some candlestick patterns formed in those zones or spot at times they signal exhaustion of bullish or bearish movement of the price eg pin bar or hammer thus an indication that there would be a change in the direction of price.

I think that this thread is worth being mentioned here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4420866.msg39412664#msg39412664

You need to know that TA indicators were invented when average trader was not algo bot/AI bot. To earn on market you need to be better than others. You will not be better than algo bot doing the same as it does (f.e. Fibonacci) but much slower.

AI bots turns TA upside down. The more money stay behind them the less OP post is true (shop stuff etc.) and less effective TA is. It may appear that after next 5 years market will start to do opposite to TA because that will be more profitable to AI bots (why compete with algo bots to earn on non-TA emotional traders if you can switch site and earn on algo-bots that are predictable - price will do what bigger whale want)

I see trading more like a "whale hunting". When i see that, based on TA, price should dump but it doesn't I know that whale use huge TA lovers and algo bots demand to fill bags.

Nah, we can't just think that traders are really good at TA or even closely predicting the market price in the future. We all be like them, investors and holder will make their own speculation and we got lucky (maybe) if we closely make it but in reality, we got no assurance for this. That is why I don't really give trust to TA or even asking an expert about their speculation but rather to have our own. And if ever it won't work, we have nothing to blame and we don't ever feel disgrace but it either help us to understand the market as well.

Price action just works because of every trader/investor buy and sell which is as simple as we just walk with two legs. But where we are trying to go by walk is some thing different which could be compared to analyzing/preconditions/speculations.

I mean price action is a collective efforts of individual traders and market will head where most of the traders are trying to reach. So, when a trader is trying to find out the market direction, they go for analysis and they might be right or wrong in both short or long term basis. You may look like right in short term but may turn wrong in long term because markets move up and down without any similar pattern. This is the simple reason why traders are looking like gamblers or predicts.

The price action just works because of we buy and sell and speculations and analysis are just the tool to enable us to pick either one of buy or sell. It may sound like gambling when you skip the analyzing part but market moves for a reason hence calling it gambling is not appropriate.

I guess since people can't control what others can do, there is of course no one person that can know what will happen with the price. That is for bitcoin and probably ethereum as well but that's about it, all other coins could be controlled by other people but not many, they like to throw "decentralized" word around but in reality we all know it is now, BCH could go up or down a lot if Roger Ver and Jihan wu decides to either sell all their BCH at once, or buy a bunch again, BSV is basically fake coin that Craig can take up or down, so does all rest of them as well.

In order to know what will happen you have to know what people will do, what charts tell you is what people "should" do and that includes you, sometimes people act that way because they think people will do what they should do, which over time is as true as it is wrong, 50% - 50% if you ask me.

In my opinion, it depends to the number of holders, the transaction they make, the buy and sell action. I think the two directly affect the price trends. The seller sets price for the amount he/she wants to sell. However, at a limit. The algorithm seems to have a limit based on the analysis of some sort. On the other end, buyer decides when to buy. And that transaction maybe the things get analysed by the system and causes price changes.

Simplicity is OP.   Thats always what I want to see, a simple pattern that anyone could agree with and then its far more likely to be significant.   Picking out 1 trend over half a dozen competing themes including ones which completely oppose and suggest an inverse direction to the price is the skill I guess.  The low on May 10th recently was a reasonable buy, just happened to be near 200 day average so Im glad I had that on the radar at least.
 Its a weak reason as its just an indicator or average but the fact we rise on fairly uninvolved reasons shows the market is not challenged negatively.    Many simple factors combine and make the picture complicated quite easily, avoiding the noise is key to success I reckon.

As long as their intention for long term investment it's ok to entry. Unless it is for trading and will have different case, there are at least three trading type for some person that should be choose. The first type is scalping, you maybe know the chracter of the scalping trader because it is similar to your case. The second type, da trader you do need one day to come out and see the result (take profit/lose) and the last type is swing trader that you need at least one week to come out from you trading. Trading and investing is different, you can't equate them.

New traders (which I was once upon a time) have one thing in their mind, it is the fact that bitcoin is valuable and it is scarce so it will always worth more in the future. So they can buy and sell to make a profit, or they could buy and hold until they could sell for a profit.

Obviously, there are weak hands who get in at high and get out at low because they are afraid but those people do not really understand crypto all that very well, they are always afraid of what bitcoin could do and think that people who call bitcoin dead could be right. Hence, I still think that many traders who are not very experienced divide into two, people who will buy and sell and basically be active all the time until they get out, or people who do not really get it and only buy because they want to get rich quickly.