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Title: U.S. Recession short term Post by: rambogoham1 on March 25, 2020, 04:01:55 PM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.
North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should. China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: exstasie on March 25, 2020, 09:21:26 PM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. Yep, I've been saying this for a while. Everyone seems to expect a 2008-2009 repeat or worse. They are assuming the most catastrophic pandemic models are correct. There is still the possibility of a 1987-like crash, especially if this study turns out correct, (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235293.msg54092838#msg54092838) as it will completely change the economic outlook. These are in fact the exact price levels to bounce from (~ 35% crash) to keep that model intact. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Unemployment numbers are going to be scary. I expect the market to tumble when the latest BLS data comes out in a couple days. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. Half of that stimulus package will be used to bail out companies. The Trump administration also indicated there is another $4 trillion in spending coming on top of this package. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: stompix on March 25, 2020, 10:28:39 PM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. You know, sometimes I think we should have also a shale gas obituary, just like we have with bitcoin. I've heard so many times that the shale sector is going to die that I'm actually bored of it, it has died in 2014, in 2016 in 2018...but it seems it's more resistant that this damn virus. And even if the price forces companies to stop drilling once the prices go up there will be more drillers again, even so shale gas alone won't trigger a recession, cheap gas prices have always helped Americans, what is going to affect us all is the economic slowdown caused by this coronacrap. This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should. And seriously, whoever thinks that this is good for us, let's cheer for BTC!!! needs to follow Jimmy Hoffa. Around here (Europe) things are still calm but companies are slowly reducing staff, commerce is down, two-car factories shut down, for a while there will be money, in the long run, god knows...and no...this won't be god for bitcoin. It won't be good for the dollar, for the yen for anybody If the US enters a recession everybody will follow, from China to Argentina and Iceland to New Zeeland, and the worst hit will be those that can't afford to pay even a 1sat tx, let alone buy some bitcoins. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Hydrogen on March 26, 2020, 01:31:04 AM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should. China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. Reagan and Trump's policies are very similar, with both utilizing tax cuts in an effort to incentivize investment and growth. Trump's approach to finance and economics are near polar opposite to Obama's in 2008. If we see a recovery, with Trump as President. It will more closely resemble the 1987 recovery, when Reagan was President. -Oil's decreasing value is based on reduced demand. Global transportation and shipping being on steep declines. Demand will pick up if circumstances return to normal. -Not everyone receives the $1200. Only recently unemployed workers afaik. -It seems some of the federal reserve's bailouts are finding their way into chinese markets. Its the only thing that explains chinese stocks doing so well. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: exstasie on March 26, 2020, 03:22:01 AM Reagan and Trump's policies are very similar, with both utilizing tax cuts in an effort to incentivize investment and growth. Trump's approach to finance and economics are near polar opposite to Obama's in 2008. If we see a recovery, with Trump as President. It will more closely resemble the 1987 recovery, when Reagan was President. I think this crash better parallels 1987 than 2008 but it's not because of the policies mounted in response. Trump and Obama's stimulus policies are almost exactly the same. It's a matter of circumstance. 2008 resulted from systemic failures, not an external catalyst like 2020. -Not everyone receives the $1200. Only recently unemployed workers afaik. Pretty much everyone who makes < $99,000 a year and has a Social Security number will get a check. Even Social Security beneficiaries who already get government checks will get one. The expansion of unemployment benefits is a separate thing. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/congress-to-send-taxpayers-1200-checks-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus.html Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Meowth05 on March 26, 2020, 06:41:17 AM This recession will have a big impact on the deciding factor whether the US economy will head to a long recession or a short one, China is making a good move, I commend that because for me that is how you play politics, you make a good decision out of the bad situation.
Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: davis196 on March 26, 2020, 07:57:37 AM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should. China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. 1.The time frame of the recession depends of the way USA fights the pandemic.Lockdowns,mass testing,preparation of the hospitals and the production and delivery of protective clothes,masks,purell,etc. 2.Oil prices can go up,if the USA reduces oil production.Countries like Russia won't survive low oil prices as well,so they might reduce oil prices too. 3.The 2 trillion dollar stimulus plan is crucial for fighting the recession,but I don't think that 2 trillion is enough. 4.China's export will be hit by a global recession.That's why China has to help the world now. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: abhiseshakana on March 26, 2020, 09:19:40 AM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should. China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. The 2008-2009 crisis was actually a financial crisis. Starting and growing in the financial sector, then it spreads to the real sector because of the blocked access to finance. In contrast to 2008-2009, the coronavirus is a phenomenon in the real sector that is creeping into the financial sector. The impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 is very different from the impact of the coronavirus. The 2008 global financial crisis was purely an economic phenomenon. The reason is the explosion of bad loans in the property sector (sub-prime mortgage) which turned out to involve many systemic institutions. So 2008 contagion came from financial institutions, especially from banks, capital markets because there was a sentiment which then influenced stability. Whereas Corona directly hits the real sector because it involves the problem of people who don't dare to do mobility, don't do activities, so that it affects the real sector, investment, manufacturing. The biggest impact of the corona to the financial sector is through interest rates, exchange rates, non-performing loans (NPLs) or problem loans, psychological sentiments, and the state budget because the government needs to provide fiscal stimulus amid this economic pressure. What is happening now is the panic of all global financial market players and capital owners due to the rapid spread of the virus to various countries, this makes global investors release financial assets in various forms on global financial markets and a number of countries. Starting from stocks, bonds, and others. They sell it in the form of US dollar cash, so there is a strengthening of the US dollar on the financial market. Whereas the recovery for the corona outbreak will not be as heavy as the 2008 crisis which took almost 7 years because the US only raised its benchmark interest rate at the end of 2015. Seeing from the pandemic in China it should be in 2021, the economy has accelerated again. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: TrevorS on March 26, 2020, 04:30:30 PM Each recession to one degree or another is not similar to the previous one.
As a rule, the stronger the economic ties between countries have grown, the more these countries are dependent on each other, which means that a sharp break in such ties can easily lead to disastrous consequences for the economy. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: avikz on March 26, 2020, 04:43:07 PM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should. China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. As per my calculation, this currently recession is not a long one! The entire world is facing it, so do US! The moment we are out of this COVID-19 situation, the market is going to see a huge uptrend. My analysis: Majority of the markets are closed due to the current situation - people aren't going out to buy mobile or car, companies have stopped producing of all sorts of luxury or even regular items so millions of people lost their jobs! And such things are hitting insurance sector and mortgage banking sector real hard. But this is a temporary situation. As soon as this virus is controlled, production companies will open up who are mainly the mass recruiters. As soon as the market opens, it will start creating demands in the market. People will get jobs and move out from their sabbatical situation. It's a chain and it will fall in place soon after the market opens up. It will definitely not be another 2008. World is now more prepared to handle such situation. If you have money, go invest in stocks of big companies who are hit by this virus. It could be a dream come true for you! Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: mu_enrico on March 26, 2020, 05:58:26 PM I think it will last between 10 and 16 months, just guesstimate because of history. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp
The current situation is like a war, where the US lost thousands life, spend a lot of money to fight the enemy, provide medications to the survivors, etc. I'm not saying the death count because of this virus would be thousands though. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: figmentofmyass on March 26, 2020, 10:27:36 PM the wall street journal just declared an end to the bear market: https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1243267094852055041
Quote Breaking: A new bull market has begun. The Dow has rallied more than 20% since hitting a low three days ago, ending the shortest bear market ever. something tells me this prediction will not age well. if that was the shortest bear market ever, then this bounce will probably be the shortest bull market ever too. :P Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: LazerSMS on March 27, 2020, 05:32:18 AM When the Dow Jones will be around 14500 it will have lost 50% of its value since the peak in February
We can definitely reach there during April Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: exstasie on March 27, 2020, 10:24:33 AM I think it will last between 10 and 16 months, just guesstimate because of history. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp The current situation is like a war, where the US lost thousands life, spend a lot of money to fight the enemy, provide medications to the survivors, etc. We're even seeing WW2-style corporate repurposing, with private factories switching to manufacturing medical and other essential supplies: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/21/business/bc-us-virus-outbreak-repurposing-factories.html Governments are also eyeing idle hotels as potential hospital sites. The whole thing is like a hybrid between the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and WW2, minus the war part. I'm amazed at the resilience of stock markets in the face of 3.3 million American jobless claims. I had been predicting a relief rally but I had almost stopped believing it could actually happen! I don't expect this exuberance to last for too long. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: FanEagle on March 27, 2020, 01:57:33 PM Will be? It is literally in recession right now, USA will not recover from this all that easily because they are using the tax payers money to baloon up the stock prices that eventually goes down whenever something bad happens and they are left with nothing.
All that trillions of dollars tax cuts to companies in return of "bettering the economy" all went up in smokes, the idea was simply give the huge companies a tax break so that they would use that to get bigger and bigger and get more profits and hire more people because they would be getting bigger. Well, what happened? Those companies used those tax cuts to pay the CEO a lot of money and they used it to give shareholders a bigger return and whenever something bad like this happened it went back to zero and had to start all over again. I am not saying government has no fault neither, companies are known to make these shady stuff, government should have used it for something else instead. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Sadlife on March 27, 2020, 01:58:16 PM Historically expecting this financial crisis is much worse because of the unlimited quantitative easing and 0 interest rates and with $1200 bailout. The fed is really out of control and the oil with its decreasing supply and the pandamic making it much worse.
This are all fuels for the Bitcoin price, there will be time that people will lose confidence in cash. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: boyptc on March 27, 2020, 03:09:16 PM Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. It's said that the stimulus amounts to $6T which will be around $46k per family. There's another thread for this specific topic --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235342.0China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. With what I have read, they've bought a lot of cheap stocks.Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Hydrogen on March 27, 2020, 11:05:54 PM I think this crash better parallels 1987 than 2008 but it's not because of the policies mounted in response. Trump and Obama's stimulus policies are almost exactly the same. It's a matter of circumstance. 2008 resulted from systemic failures, not an external catalyst like 2020. Pretty much everyone who makes < $99,000 a year and has a Social Security number will get a check. Even Social Security beneficiaries who already get government checks will get one. The expansion of unemployment benefits is a separate thing. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/congress-to-send-taxpayers-1200-checks-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus.html IMO Trump is an advocate of allowing consumers and free markets to address and solve problems society faces. Trump's tax cuts put more money in the hands of consumers and free markets. Which gives them greater liquidity to create jobs, address unemployment, welfare, poverty and other social economic issues. Policies of Obama and the majority of politicians in the world, are the opposite. They focus on raising taxes and increasing state spending. Under the assumption big, centralized, governments can better solve issues relating to job markets, unemployment, welfare, poverty et al. Trump is handing out free $$. But will likely deter tax hikes which prevent his bailout programs being becoming UBI or social security 2.0. IMO anyway. I'm amazed at the resilience of stock markets in the face of 3.3 million American jobless claims. I had been predicting a relief rally but I had almost stopped believing it could actually happen! I don't expect this exuberance to last for too long. I think this explains it. Quote The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008: Analysis The bull market just celebrated its seventh anniversary. But the gains in recent years – as well as its recent sputter – may be explained by just one thing: monetary policy. The factors behind that and previous bubbles can be illuminated using simple visual analysis of a chart. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) doubled in value from November 2008 to October 2014, coinciding with the Federal Reserve Bank’s “quantitative easing” asset purchasing program. After three rounds of “QE,” where the Fed poured billions of dollars into the bond market monthly, the Fed’s balance sheet went from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion. This isn’t just a spurious correlation, according to economist Brian Barnier, principal at ValueBridge Advisors and founder of FedDashboard.com. What’s more, he says previous bull runs in the market lasting several years can also be explained by single factors each time. Barnier first compiled data on the total value of publicly-traded U.S. stocks since 1950. He then divided it by another economic factor, graphing the ratio for each one. If the chart showed horizontal lines stretching over long periods of time, that meant both the numerator (stock values) and the denominator (the other factor) were moving at the same rate. “That's the beauty of the visual analysis,” he said. “All we have to do is find straight, stable lines and we know we've got something good.” Scouring hundreds of different factors, Barnier ultimately whittled it down to just four factors: GDP data five years into the future, household and nonprofit liabilities, open market paper, and the Fed’s assets. At different stretches of time, just one of those was the single biggest driver of the market and was confirmed with regression analyses. He isolated each factor in a separate chart, calling them “eras” for the stock market. From after World War II until the mid-1970s, future GDP outlook explained 90% of the stock market’s move, according to statistical analysis by Barnier. GDP growth lost its sway on the market in the early 1970s with the rise of credit cards and consumer debt. Household liabilities grew with plastic first, followed by home mortgages, until the real estate crash of the early 1990s. Barnier’s analysis shows debt explained 95% of the entire market’s move during this time. The period between the mid- to late-1990s until 2000 was, of course, marked by the tech bubble. While stocks took much of the headline, that time also saw heightened activity in the commercial paper market. Startups and young companies sought cash beyond their stratospheric share values to fund their operations. Barnier’s regression analysis shows commercial paper increases could explain as much as 97% of the tech bubble. Shortly after the tech bubble burst, a housing bubble began, once more in the form of mortgages and other debt. That drove 94% of the market’s move for the first several years of the current century. As the financial crisis reached a fevered pitch in 2008, the Federal Reserve took to flooding the financial market with dollars by buying up bonds. Simultaneously, interest rates fell dramatically, as bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Barnier sees the Fed as responsible for over 93% of the market from the start of QE until today. During the first half of 2013, the Fed caused the entire market’s growth, he said. Since the Fed stopped buying bonds in late 2014, the S&P 500 has been batted around in a 16% range and is more or less where it was when the QE came to a close. Investors need to anticipate the next driver, said Barnier. “Quantitative easing has stopped, but now we're into the interest rate world,” he said. “That means for any investor trying to figure out what to do, step one is starting with a macro strategy.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-caused-93--of-the-entire-stock-market-s-move-since-2008--analysis-194426366.html Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: sujon5 on March 28, 2020, 05:38:46 AM People are expecting 2008 crisis repeat, but 2008 crash wasn't as sudden as upcoming one. So 1987-like crash model is more correct for the current situation.
Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: dothebeats on March 28, 2020, 05:50:53 AM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. If it's the 1987 type of recession, USA will have it good. The plunge will be sudden, but the recovery will also be doable within a short span of time. North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now. True. With the sudden decrease on oil demands all over the world, there is no reason why would oil refineries would be wanting to ramp up production--or to even sustain their volume of production currently. The best thing these oil companies could see as to save some money during this crisis is to lay off some employees and just hope for the best. Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down. Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child. This would further cripple the economy as everyone and their mothers are eagerly wanting to take out cash from insurance and from the government as a response to the COVID-19 threat. The thing is, the US government never anticipated the worst case scenario and thought that they are somewhat immune against the ravages of the disease, and look where it got them. China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. Which makes me think that this is an elaborate plan for the world economies to crash while China stays afloat. Then again, it must be more of me being into conspiracies but who knows? Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: stompix on March 28, 2020, 09:15:37 AM China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. Which makes me think that this is an elaborate plan for the world economies to crash while China stays afloat. Then again, it must be more of me being into conspiracies but who knows? Nope, not a conspiracy, just a lot of cash injected in the last two months, with hundreds of billions being offered from the start of February. Quote On Monday, the PBOC also injected a total of 1.2 trillion yuan (US$236 billion) into money markets through reverse bond repurchase agreements. Markets had widely expected the liquidity move but most analysts thought rate cuts might follow later once the economic impact was more clear. The injection is one of 30 measures announced by Chinese authorities over the weekend to buttress the economy against disruption from the outbreak, which originated from the central Chinese city of Wuhan. One week later: Quote China will offer 500 billion yuan of relending and rediscounting funding to commercial banks for loans to small firms and the agricultural sector. The interest rate of the funding will be lowered by 25 basis points. A few days later: Quote The People’s Bank of China said 209.5 billion yuan in bonds related to fighting the virus have been issued as of Tuesday. They have been pumping money in everything, billions after billions, and the cherry : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-03/china-is-said-to-restrict-stock-sales-by-brokerage-prop-desks Quote The China Securities Regulatory Commission told some brokerages that their proprietary traders aren’t allowed to be net sellers of equities this week, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. But, if truly the US enters a recession for more than a few trimesters, everyone is screwed, China will just fall a few months later in the whole alongside Europe and the rest, let's just hope it won't be that long. Almost 2% of the employees here have already been sent home with pay cuts or worse, if this lasts for 3 months... The fed is really out of control and the oil with its decreasing supply and the pandamic making it much worse. Why would the price of oil be a major player in this? It's peanuts money compared to the stimulus package to prop shale drillers for years, and the US benefits from cheap oil prices.Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: buwaytress on March 28, 2020, 04:48:41 PM @dothebeats, 1987 repeat will be good for the US, but so will the 1950s flu that also brought on a recession. Recovery as almost as swift and as steep as the downturn. A lot like Bitcoin trajectory in short timeframes, really. Massive crashes, and then parabolas.
@stompix where are you located? I got family in SEA and almost everyone has been asked to go on leave without pay indefinitely. No welfare protection like in Europe. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: exstasie on March 28, 2020, 10:05:29 PM People are expecting 2008 crisis repeat, but 2008 crash wasn't as sudden as upcoming one. So 1987-like crash model is more correct for the current situation. I've been anticipating a 1987-style recovery for weeks. However, now that the course of the pandemic is becoming so bad in the US (infections not expected to peak for another month) I'm not sure anymore. My model was based on the idea that infections would quickly peak over a few-week period and then we would enter the recovery stage. I didn't plan on the US government blundering the pandemic response so carelessly and negligently. The misinformation about masks from the CDC, the mask and ventilator shortages, the complete lack of urgent response was all very unexpected to me. It's unbelievable that Trump is becoming so popular during this crisis because his administration (and the Obama administration) completely eradicated any chance of a fast recovery. Neither administration re-stocked medical stockpiles after the H1N1 outbreak. Trump even dismantled the NSC pandemic office charged with responding to these emergencies. (https://apnews.com/ce014d94b64e98b7203b873e56f80e9a) There was virtually zero coordination of an epidemic response at the national level. This whole experience is a monumental failure of the US government and I'm beginning to worry the markets (and everyday American workers) are going to pay very dearly for it over the next year. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: adaseb on March 29, 2020, 04:17:34 AM Even if Corona goes way sometime in the next 3-6 months, it doesn't mean the SP500 or DOW30 will hit a new ATH very soon. You need to understand that the US stock markets were very stretched and inflated. People were buying stocks like crazy, and there was less supply, and hence why we kept getting new ATH every few weeks for years. Similar to what happened with BTC in 2017.
So if the bear market is over, it could be 10 years before we break those highs again. Also keep in mind that the Boomers who got tons of money in their retirement, will most likely start cashing out in the near future and it will lead to oversupply of shares and cause the markets to trade sideways or downwards. So it might not be a repeat of 2008 where it hit a new ATH a few years later. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: stompix on March 29, 2020, 07:11:15 AM @stompix where are you located? I got family in SEA and almost everyone has been asked to go on leave without pay indefinitely. No welfare protection like in Europe. Yeah, I'm in Europe, not the northern part but still, we have some measures in place. But the numbers don't look good at all, the villages that rely on tourism are dead, the ones that relay only one big factory like the audi plant or skoda are also hanging by a thread, they have money to pay the employee for a while but what will happen next? What if there is no demand for cars? One of my friends started a luxury barbershop in a mall in December....I have no courage to start chatting with him and ask how he is... The problem is that no matter how wealthy the state no matter how you reduce your necessities, there won't be money, plus you need a lot of money to start again the entire economy. We might be safe for a few months, if this goes beyond June we're all going to experience a true recession, unlike 2007 which will be a joke compared. It's unbelievable that Trump is becoming so popular during this crisis Nothing about Trump makes sense... ;D There was virtually zero coordination of an epidemic response at the national level. When Trump say it's just the flu, the others say it's far worse and he should take measures, then he goes 180 degrees with his stance and it's a pandemic and he wants to close NY but the others now oppose...yeah you're far worse than us here in Europe with our failed Chinese testers and masks that let butterflies go though... Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: buwaytress on March 29, 2020, 08:35:15 AM The problem is that no matter how wealthy the state no matter how you reduce your necessities, there won't be money, plus you need a lot of money to start again the entire economy. We might be safe for a few months, if this goes beyond June we're all going to experience a true recession, unlike 2007 which will be a joke compared. Absolutely, people need to eat and pay the bills so for as long as the state can shoulder some of that burden, it'll be fine. Same as what I always say about Bitcoin (people aren't gonna go out and buy more in crisis, they're gonna buy rice and bread first). But it's not going to work out if things go on like this, economy wise. The system really needs to break beyond repair. This will be bad, and like you, I feel terrible about those whose livelihoods rely on mobility. My two siblings work in event management and hotel industry, so those were actually going down even second half of 2019. Then when Chinese tourists and businessmen stopped coming, that was it. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: fiulpro on March 29, 2020, 09:07:52 AM Short term ?
Is this it ? No I do not think this recession is going to last short term , the people are already getting into the line and doing what they can do , people are jobless , how are they supposed to feed their families ? How is anything going to happen normally now ? People are not understanding the severity of the situation and still roaming around the streets . I do think this won't be short term until and unless , they are able to control the graph . Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: bitgolden on March 29, 2020, 06:38:46 PM What China is doing is not a permanent solution neither, what USA has always done and is doing is not a solution neither. By giving companies a lot of money you are not fixing the problem, these companies will need money again next time there is a crisis.
You need to build a federal branch that is like insurance, FED is obviously in love with these huge banks so there should be laws preventing FED from doing whatever the hell they want as well, people keep saying that FED is independent but that doesn't mean it is unregulated neither, can they print out 500 trillion!!! dollars tomorrow? No, that would be suicide, so that means there is a limit, there is a regulation, that should be tighter. Every company should be paying federal taxes, and every company should pay some sort of voluntary "insurance" money as well, if they don't pay that, when they crash, nobody helps them, if they do pay, during these days they get bailed out. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: The Sceptical Chymist on March 29, 2020, 07:03:21 PM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. I'm not so sure about that, and I'm also questioning whether there was any type of recession in 1987. I'm aware that the stock market plunged in October of that year, but it rebounded relatively quickly and the bull market didn't implode until April 2000. That crash in 1987 wasn't even related to the economy if I remember correctly--there were a lot of folks blaming it on programmed trading.And yeah, unemployment has spiked but there's a very clear cause for that--a lot of businesses have been forced to shut down. That's not a permanent thing, though. With an outbreak like with this strain of coronavirus, there's no way the whole world needs to be on lockdown for an extended period of time. IMO there's been a lot of overreaction to this thing, though the consequences have been quite real. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: thesmallgod on March 29, 2020, 07:48:04 PM China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations. I just imagine how China keeps doing this. Despite the fact that the virus started from them, they are still ahead in stock market which I believe will continue to top because a lot of businesses are already starting to operate back. even wuhan in which the virus pandemic first started is no more locked down. All these are really unbelievable. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: figmentofmyass on March 30, 2020, 03:38:58 AM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. I'm not so sure about that, and I'm also questioning whether there was any type of recession in 1987. I'm aware that the stock market plunged in October of that year, but it rebounded relatively quickly and the bull market didn't implode until April 2000. That crash in 1987 wasn't even related to the economy if I remember correctly--there were a lot of folks blaming it on programmed trading.they say it was a black swan caused by algorithmic trading. there was no recession afterwards, but i think that speaks past what rambogoham1 is saying: could this be another black swan event followed by a hasty recovery like in 1987, or is it a more prolonged and much more painful collapse like 2008? looking at the all the headlines and projections, the situation in the USA is gonna get much worse over the next couple weeks. i'm betting on something more like 2008. And yeah, unemployment has spiked but there's a very clear cause for that--a lot of businesses have been forced to shut down. That's not a permanent thing, though. but how long could it last? that's what the markets are freaking out about. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Mpamaegbu on March 30, 2020, 08:18:28 AM The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession. I don't know what the globe stands to actually gain with the desire of people hoping the America economy plunges into a recession. The proposed/expected recession may not even happen only to the US, givien the pandemic situation the world in faced with now. It will also hit many other countries. However, whatever happens I don't believe the US recession (if it eventually happens) will be anything deep like what the US experienced in 2008 financial meltdown.Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Gozie51 on March 31, 2020, 06:09:11 PM Each recession to one degree or another is not similar to the previous one. As a rule, the stronger the economic ties between countries have grown, the more these countries are dependent on each other, which means that a sharp break in such ties can easily lead to disastrous consequences for the economy. This is a clear reason that countries should try and move away from total dependence. With the current situation of covid-19, the dependent countries are the ones suffering more. I hope that after this episode, so many countries would try and be a strong competitor in the global economy by becoming technologically advanced. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: FanatMonet on March 31, 2020, 11:36:29 PM This recession will have a big impact on the deciding factor whether the US economy will head to a long recession or a short one, China is making a good move, I commend that because for me that is how you play politics, you make a good decision out of the bad situation. There can not be a long or short-term recession, or there is a recession, and it causes enormous damage to the economy, even if it occurs in a relatively short period of time, or it does not occur, there are no other options. And a recession in a country like the United States will surely hit everyone else.Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: exstasie on April 02, 2020, 01:27:12 PM Brutal US unemployment numbers just came out, eclipsing last week. 6.6 million!
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/record-6-6-million-americans-filed-unemployment-last-week-n1174776 Quote A record 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, the latest brutal reminder of the toll the coronavirus pandemic is taking on the U.S. economy. Still, some economists said the actual number of unemployed could be much higher, since many applicants had experienced trouble filing a claim, as state labor departments became overwhelmed. SPX futures have already dumped 75 points on the news. BTCUSD is still looking strong though. Let's see if it can shake off that stock market correlation. Title: Re: U.S. Recession short term Post by: Sadlife on April 02, 2020, 01:34:41 PM It's really suspicious how china's economy already doing well after the virus outbreak in their country. But so much with conspiracy theories, i think 1987 and 2008 recession wont compare to this one because the fed is printing unlimited money to inject into the system and would be buying bonds, treasures and in the future corporate debt. If this recession came through then this would end the USD.
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