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Economy => Gambling discussion => Topic started by: webtricks on July 31, 2020, 05:47:57 PM



Title: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: webtricks on July 31, 2020, 05:47:57 PM
So yesterday a forum member asked me why do Crash Games usually crash at lower multiples (mostly lower than 2x)? Does that mean these games are not fair? Does that mean owner of the site manipulated the game so lower multipliers appear more often than the higher multipliers? I thought other forum members may have these doubts too so I decided to create this thread.

First of all, the algorithm for Crash Game is originally developed by RHavar (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=389331) for his well-known site: bustabit.com

Most of the sites having Crash as a game are using one or the other version of his algorithm. Basically, crash game is based on this mathematical formula:

CRASH MULTIPLIER = [(E*100 - H)/(E-H)]/100

E is the extreme value and refers to as limit. While H is a whole number which can be any number but smaller than E. So for example, if E is 10 then H can be any number between 0 and 9. Hence, range for H is 0 to (E-1).

Now let's calculate crash multiplier value for every possibility of H when E = 10.

PossibilitiesMultiplier
H=01
H=11.11
H=21.24
H=31.42
H=41.66
H=51.99
H=62.48
H=73.31
H=84.96
H=99.91


So what do we notice above? Among 10 possible values of H, multiplier value as calculated by the formula gave value lower than 2 for 6 events! We can practically ignore H=0 case because it won't be possible practically. Hence, in 5 out of 9 case, value is lower than 2x. This is nothing but probability. By the rule of probability, there is always 50% chance that multiplier value will be lower than 2x and 50% chance for more than 2x value. However, there is another catch, did you notice that H is subtracted from the numerator in the formula before dividing it with (E-H)? This subtraction gives House Edge to casino owner.

So, apart from this catch (which is fair since casino is running business), Crash Games are 100% fair and it's due to the law of probability that multiplier crashes below 2x almost 50% of the times.

After Bustabit v2, most of the crash games started using this formula to calculate multiplier:

CRASH MULTIPLIER = 0.99*E/(E-H)


This formula is almost similar to earlier formula. Only fixed House Edge of 1% is the difference. However, sites like Roobet are still using old formula.

Note: Casino owners can practically take any value as E and then range of [0,E-1] will become H. However, since provably fair results are based on hashes which represents value in binary, E has to have value in the multiple of 2 e.g. 22,23,24 and so on. But there is inherit limitation of Javascript that it cannot precisely show floating number beyond 64 bits so most of the site uses 252 as E and range of [0,252-1] for H. With recent introduction of BigInt, it is now possible to precisely represent numbers larger than 253-1 in Javascript. Let's see if any casino will use whole hash i.e. 256 bits number as H in future which will make E = 2256.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: AjithBtc on July 31, 2020, 06:48:16 PM
I'm not into the algorithm and other development related conversation. From my understanding crash games too have got specific house edge. According to that the crash will happen, we can't say it isn't going high. Most of the players set value above two gets success, but out of greed people keep on trying to crash above 50. This won't happen everytime, and if there is no crash at lower point then there won't be big profit for the gambling house.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Saint-loup on July 31, 2020, 09:03:31 PM
I don't know where you've found those formulas but they seem more complicated than RHavar's code.

Code:
99 / (1 - X)
  • X is uniformly distributed on [0,1] because it comes from the seed
  • The result is then divided by 100 to get the crash multiplier

So we can understand that we need to have (1-X) below 0.5 to get a crash multiplier above 2
99/0.5=99x2=198
=>CM=198/100=1.98

So we can conclude that less than 50% of (1-X) values give crash multipliers above 2 and thus less than 50% of X(ie seed) values.
Or more than half of game rounds give crash multipliers below x2




Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Danslip on July 31, 2020, 09:49:57 PM
Thanks for sharing the valuable information, math has been always the language of universe. The probabilities are not in favor of player but using different money management technics can reduce the chances of getting busted sooner than hitting profit target. The Limbo game in Stake has the similar odds but this line alone explain everything why gamblers tend to lose in the long term:

Quote
Hence, in 5 out of 9 case, value is lower than 2x
+ House Edge

Interesting stats by bustabit:
https://i.imgur.com/FY9Lfvd.jpg


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Insanerman on August 01, 2020, 03:59:43 AM
~

Does algorithm really matter? It's not just the crash game that usually has low values and less possibility of winning, it is also in every game in gambling, and in any platform. But I don't think that Roobet uses the old algorithm as there are already huge number of players that win a big amount in playing Roobet's crash game. And how are you even sure that they are using RHavar's code and not their own? I think only those famous betting platforms with crash games back then only uses that, and new innovating ones are making their own adjustments with the code.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Wexnident on August 01, 2020, 04:59:59 AM
Can't really expect the casino to create an algorithm that would prove to be an advantage to players now, can we. I've never really seen crash games being unfair tbh, I mean, even my common sense would indicate that if they didn't crash at lower values, they'd probably be losing out quite a lot.
Does algorithm really matter? It's not just the crash game that usually has low values and less possibility of winning, it is also in every game in gambling, and in any platform. But I don't think that Roobet uses the old algorithm as there are already huge number of players that win a big amount in playing Roobet's crash game. And how are you even sure that they are using RHavar's code and not their own? I think only those famous betting platforms with crash games back then only uses that, and new innovating ones are making their own adjustments with the code.
I guess Op just wanted to prove that Crash games are provably fair, and is not manipulated by the gambling sites. Well, the core idea of the algorithms of crash should closely follow what Op said and shouldn't deviate that much. They may change it up to increase their house edge or vice versa, but the idea remains the same. Besides, with the amount of crash matches that happen every day, someone winning big every now and then isn't even that weird or odd.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Shimmiry on August 01, 2020, 06:08:43 AM
Can't really expect the casino to create an algorithm that would prove to be an advantage to players now, can we. I've never really seen crash games being unfair tbh, I mean, even my common sense would indicate that if they didn't crash at lower values, they'd probably be losing out quite a lot.

But then if they would ever made an unfair one, it would simply make a huge impact in their reputation as the possibility of loses are bigger than the wins. I think they are making their own algos that would fit their categories such as how many wins can a user have in their crash games together with the chances they could have from time to time.

 But I do disagree with Insanerman, that algorithms do have impact in gambling and knowing it would make a gambler be attentive when to bet and what strategy to use. If we didn't knew algorithm, we'll soon be losing our money as we only know how to make fun and be satisfied.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Insanerman on August 01, 2020, 06:29:29 AM
~
I guess Op just wanted to prove that Crash games are provably fair, and is not manipulated by the gambling sites. Well, the core idea of the algorithms of crash should closely follow what Op said and shouldn't deviate that much. They may change it up to increase their house edge or vice versa, but the idea remains the same. Besides, with the amount of crash matches that happen every day, someone winning big every now and then isn't even that weird or odd.

But IMO, there are a lot of gambling sites out there that uses their own algorithm and had their limits or was being manipulated. I've encountered a lot of issues in many gambling platforms I've tried back then and read many accusations of them being either too much fair that they made others win drastically big, or they made many loss too much. And that leads me to another idea that algorithms doesn't matter nowadays, as many enters gambling mostly not as their profit making habit, but a time to enjoy playing gambling games.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: webtricks on August 01, 2020, 07:18:25 AM
I don't know where you've found those formulas but they seem more complicated than RHavar's code.

Code:
99 / (1 - X)
  • X is uniformly distributed on [0,1] because it comes from the seed
  • The result is then divided by 100 to get the crash multiplier
I have derived formula on my own. It's basically the same. What you are showing are the steps to find the result from coding point-of-view. But in compact form it's exactly same as the second formula I derived in the OP, let me show you how:

Step 1: Starting point -> 99 / (1-X)

Step 2: Inserting the value of X in the formula:

https://i.ibb.co/VHvSdmC/proof1.png

where R is a random number taken from first 52-bits of the hash and E is 252

Step 3: Taking LCM in denominator:

https://i.ibb.co/mvSYKZr/proof2.png

R = H

Step 4: Taking 'E' to the numerator:

https://i.ibb.co/RjDWcrg/proof3.png

Step 5: Finally dividing the result by 100 to get multiplier value:

https://i.ibb.co/pyhSwxn/proof4.png


I just missed one step, if the resulting value of multiplier is below 1 then return 1. Rest of the formula is completely correct.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: swogerino on August 01, 2020, 07:28:17 AM
~

Does algorithm really matter? It's not just the crash game that usually has low values and less possibility of winning, it is also in every game in gambling, and in any platform. But I don't think that Roobet uses the old algorithm as there are already huge number of players that win a big amount in playing Roobet's crash game. And how are you even sure that they are using RHavar's code and not their own? I think only those famous betting platforms with crash games back then only uses that, and new innovating ones are making their own adjustments with the code.

I think that the algorithm is what matter the most in software controlled games.In slot machines it is the algorithm that controls everything and although most of the providers say each spin is independent of each other we all know that getting on the reels the top combination happens rarely because the algorithm has decided so bu being programmed by the developers of the game to behave that way.Same with crash games and other software related games.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: webtricks on August 01, 2020, 07:31:01 AM
~

But I don't think that Roobet uses the old algorithm as there are already huge number of players that win a big amount in playing Roobet's crash game. And how are you even sure that they are using RHavar's code and not their own? I think only those famous betting platforms with crash games back then only uses that, and new innovating ones are making their own adjustments with the code.

Just because Roobet is growing successfully, that doesn't mean it is a pioneer of Bitcoin Gambling Industry! Stop believing gambling sites blindly. Here's the proof that Roobet's crash game is based on the same algorithm (taken right from the 'Fairness (https://roobet.com/fair)' page of Roobet):

https://i.ibb.co/k2dzd0k/roobet.png

Do you see a red box? Can you read the formula inside? Isn't it same to the one in OP?

Don't think that I will write random things anywhere on forum without any knowledge. If I was sure enough to include that line in OP, it does mean that I am sure about the fact. Period!


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on August 01, 2020, 07:45:47 AM
So yesterday a forum member asked me why do Crash Games usually crash at lower multiples (mostly lower than 2x)? Does that mean these games are not fair? Does that mean owner of the site manipulated the game so lower multipliers appear more often than the higher multipliers? I thought other forum members may have these doubts too so I decided to create this thread.

Not all crash game shows actual odds of winnings. It is not roulette or dice where you can calculate your odds and house edge easily. Formula with E and H is shown only in fairness section and only for few gambling sites (big part of "provably fair" casinos are "provably fair" only for 1-2 games, rest games "provably fair" section is under construction forever). House edge on these games can be set to 20% and you don't know it. Does it mean that output is "manipulated" and "not fair"? To me, As long as casino share formula how crash is calculated it is fair. It's gambler fault that did not check how high casino set house edge.

But back to OP. Great explanation how crash is calculated. Good work.

Formula with H and E is very clever because it provides consistent commission for the casino no matter where players positions their bets.

You want to double? You have 4x% to do so
Quote
Hence, in 5 out of 9 case, value is lower than 2x.
You want to tripple? you have <33% to do so - 3/10 above 3

You want to do 10x? you have <10% to do so

and so on and on. No matter where you put your bet. Math take care that you have same risk/reward ratio and casino have it's share.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: iamsheikhadil on August 02, 2020, 11:29:34 AM
While crash shows that it's hitting many times under 2x, the one or two times we also see it hits thousands or even millions of wins. I think it's evenly spread out and even in other games, the chances of hitting 2x is exactly the same of what is in crash. Thanks for the nice explanation of how it originated and how it's calculated!


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: MFahad on August 02, 2020, 01:32:50 PM
While crash shows that it's hitting many times under 2x, the one or two times we also see it hits thousands or even millions of wins. I think it's evenly spread out and even in other games, the chances of hitting 2x is exactly the same of what is in crash. Thanks for the nice explanation of how it originated and how it's calculated!

If it hits many times above 2x or more then what will be the benefit of the house who is hosting the crash game ? Ofcourse as with every other game, you have very few chances to get more out of gambling houses and crash game is not any different. You can only hit big in a crash games if you have money to take risk in many bets before you land on a big milestone.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Saint-loup on August 02, 2020, 07:50:39 PM
I don't know where you've found those formulas but they seem more complicated than RHavar's code.

Code:
99 / (1 - X)
  • X is uniformly distributed on [0,1] because it comes from the seed
  • The result is then divided by 100 to get the crash multiplier
I have derived formula on my own. It's basically the same. What you are showing are the steps to find the result from coding point-of-view. But in compact form it's exactly same as the second formula I derived in the OP, let me show you how:

Step 1: Starting point -> 99 / (1-X)

Step 2: Inserting the value of X in the formula:
-snip

Yes you're right X=H/E

Code:
  // 2. r = 52 most significant bits
  seed = seed.slice(0, nBits/4)
  const r = parseInt(seed, 16)

  // 3. X = r / 2^52
  let X = r / Math.pow(2, nBits) // uniformly distributed in [0; 1)

  // 4. X = 99 / (1-X)
  X = 99 / (1 - X)



~

But I don't think that Roobet uses the old algorithm as there are already huge number of players that win a big amount in playing Roobet's crash game. And how are you even sure that they are using RHavar's code and not their own? I think only those famous betting platforms with crash games back then only uses that, and new innovating ones are making their own adjustments with the code.

Just because Roobet is growing successfully, that doesn't mean it is a pioneer of Bitcoin Gambling Industry! Stop believing gambling sites blindly. Here's the proof that Roobet's crash game is based on the same algorithm (taken right from the 'Fairness (https://roobet.com/fair)' page of Roobet):

https://i.ibb.co/k2dzd0k/roobet.png

Do you see a red box? Can you read the formula inside? Isn't it same to the one in OP?

Don't think that I will write random things anywhere on forum without any knowledge. If I was sure enough to include that line in OP, it does mean that I am sure about the fact. Period!

You're right it's the v1 version
https://github.com/Dexon95/Bustabit/blob/master/gameserver/server/lib.js

But in this version the house edge is computed like that as far as I understand :

   // In 1 of 101 games the game crashes instantly.
    if (divisible(hash, 101))
        return 0;

    // Use the most significant 52-bit from the hash to calculate the crash point
    var h = parseInt(hash.slice(0,52/4),16);
    var e = Math.pow(2,52);

    return Math.floor((100 * e - h) / (e - h));


While in the Roobet version, 101 has been replaced by 25.
It means there is an instant crash every 25 game rounds, ie 4 times out of 100.
So we can assume the house edge is at 4% on Roobet...  :-\


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: gin.zhe on November 03, 2021, 01:40:31 PM
Thanks for the great post. I am studying the game for fun and happen to see the math in the forum. It is the first time I understand how it works with my limited college knowledge in statistics. I do understand the formula to produce the multiplier as follows

crash multiplier = (100 * e - h) / (e - h) / 100

e is the maximum multiplier one could have, but from other replies, it mentioned e will be 2^52 in javascript, does it mean the multiplier could go up that that high? I don't know javascript but I try to implement the formula (with e=2^52) in c++, no matter what h is, the crash multiplier is always ONE?

Besides, I saw someone said there is at least 50% of chance the multiplier is 2 or less. If I bet 1 dollar at a time, each time I cash out if saw the multiplier raised to 1.1x, will it give me more chance to win something small each time? If no,  why not?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 03, 2021, 03:31:44 PM
Besides, I saw someone said there is at least 50% of chance the multiplier is 2 or less. If I bet 1 dollar at a time, each time I cash out if saw the multiplier raised to 1.1x, will it give me more chance to win something small each time? If no,  why not?

No. There is always the same risk/reward ratio. There is no difference in strategy you pick. There is no diifference in multiplier you aim to hit. You always have ~90-98% from your bet back to your account from each bet, on average. This 2-10% is casino house edge. There is no way to outperform other, not even saying about outperforming casino. The only way to win is by having luck.


crash multiplier = (100 * e - h) / (e - h) / 100

no matter what h is, the crash multiplier is always ONE?

Its not 1. OP gave few examples. You had to make a mistake in the order of performing mathematical operations

Quote
PossibilitiesMultiplier
H=01
H=11.11
H=21.24
H=31.42
H=41.66
H=51.99
H=62.48
H=73.31
H=84.96
H=99.91



Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: gin.zhe on November 03, 2021, 03:34:44 PM
Besides, I saw someone said there is at least 50% of chance the multiplier is 2 or less. If I bet 1 dollar at a time, each time I cash out if saw the multiplier raised to 1.1x, will it give me more chance to win something small each time? If no,  why not?

No. There is always the same risk/reward ratio. There is no difference in strategy you pick. There is no diifference in multiplier you aim to hit. You always have ~90-98% from your bet back to your account from each bet, on average. This 2-10% is casino house edge. There is no way to outperform other, not even saying about outperforming casino. The only way to win is by having luck.


crash multiplier = (100 * e - h) / (e - h) / 100

no matter what h is, the crash multiplier is always ONE?

Its no 1. OP gave few examples:

Quote
PossibilitiesMultiplier
H=01
H=11.11
H=21.24
H=31.42
H=41.66
H=51.99
H=62.48
H=73.31
H=84.96
H=99.91


Thanks. But I think that example is valid when E=10, what I am confused about is the casino chose E=2^52, even I choose H=1000 or 1E8, the formula still gives me 1 instead.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 03, 2021, 03:43:12 PM
Thanks. But I think that example is valid when E=10, what I am confused about is the casino chose E=2^52, even I choose H=1000 or 1E8, the formula still gives me 1 instead.

Maybe because E=2^52 = 4 503 599 627 370 496 so H=1000 is close to 0, even 1E8 is close to 0 in this scale, because comparing to E=2^52 your pick - H=1E8 is 50 million times smaller. Use H=2^50 or something like this (or 2^52-1) to check if you calculate everything correct.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: gin.zhe on November 03, 2021, 04:31:50 PM
Thanks. But I think that example is valid when E=10, what I am confused about is the casino chose E=2^52, even I choose H=1000 or 1E8, the formula still gives me 1 instead.

Maybe because E=2^52 = 4 503 599 627 370 496 so H=1000 is close to 0, even 1E8 is close to 0 in this scale, because comparing to E=2^52 your pick - H=1E8 is 50 million times smaller. Use H=2^50 or something like this (or 2^52-1) to check if you calculate everything correct.
ah, now I understand. Many thanks.

If a player decides to bet $1 at a time but chooses to cash out when it is 1.05x reaches and repeat this strategy thousands of times, will it benefit the player to have positive gain? Why not and how does the math forbid that to happen?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: fiulpro on November 03, 2021, 06:59:45 PM
Most of the time I don't really play crash really realizing all the things and this is honestly the first formula that I saw in my life regarding these games.
When we talk about this formula how would all the casinos follow the same one ?
Crash games for me are really one based on luck but seeing your formula I feel like I should get more into see how it works and how it would be beneficial for the player to encash every once in a while when they start.
Besides, I saw someone said there is at least 50% of chance the multiplier is 2 or less. If I bet 1 dollar at a time, each time I cash out if saw the multiplier raised to 1.1x, will it give me more chance to win something small each time? If no,  why not?

No. There is always the same risk/reward ratio. There is no difference in strategy you pick. There is no diifference in multiplier you aim to hit. You always have ~90-98% from your bet back to your account from each bet, on average. This 2-10% is casino house edge. There is no way to outperform other, not even saying about outperforming casino. The only way to win is by having luck.


crash multiplier = (100 * e - h) / (e - h) / 100

no matter what h is, the crash multiplier is always ONE?

Its not 1. OP gave few examples. You had to make a mistake in the order of performing mathematical operations

Quote
PossibilitiesMultiplier
H=01
H=11.11
H=21.24
H=31.42
H=41.66
H=51.99
H=62.48
H=73.31
H=84.96
H=99.91

Usually you would have to avoid betting continuously since it would make your chances of winning go down and I heard a lot of players say how fixing the seeds again works for them, so therefore I usually use crash after resetting my seeds and not continually at the same time.

Mathematics is always theoretically correct but an interesting point to analyze here.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 03, 2021, 07:09:04 PM
ah, now I understand. Many thanks.

If a player decides to bet $1 at a time but chooses to cash out when it is 1.05x reaches and repeat this strategy thousands of times, will it benefit the player to have positive gain? Why not and how does the math forbid that to happen?

with 1.05x you need to bet and win 20 times to double your 1$. When you lose you lose your 1$. The problem with this strategy is that crash (and every casino game) is calculated in a way that casino has statistic advantage over you. So in this case you will lose once each 19 times (ON AVERAGE! You can have 100 wins strike but sooner or later your luck will end). So each time you will win 95 cents with this strategy, you will lose 1$ and be short 5 cents (ON AVERAGE!).

Usually you would have to avoid betting continuously since it would make your chances of winning go down and I heard a lot of players say how fixing the seeds again works for them, so therefore I usually use crash after resetting my seeds and not continually at the same time.

Each bet on provably fair casino is completly random. So no ... resetting seed, "avoid betting continuously", wearing talismans does not work.

Mathematics is always theoretically correct but an interesting point to analyze here.

"theoretically" ????


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: gin.zhe on November 03, 2021, 10:52:15 PM
ah, now I understand. Many thanks.

If a player decides to bet $1 at a time but chooses to cash out when it is 1.05x reaches and repeat this strategy thousands of times, will it benefit the player to have positive gain? Why not and how does the math forbid that to happen?

with 1.05x you need to bet and win 20 times to double your 1$. When you lose you lose your 1$. The problem with this strategy is that crash (and every casino game) is calculated in a way that casino has statistic advantage over you. So in this case you will lose once each 19 times (ON AVERAGE! You can have 100 wins strike but sooner or later your luck will end). So each time you will win 95 cents with this strategy, you will lose 1$ and be short 5 cents (ON AVERAGE!).

Usually you would have to avoid betting continuously since it would make your chances of winning go down and I heard a lot of players say how fixing the seeds again works for them, so therefore I usually use crash after resetting my seeds and not continually at the same time.

Each bet on provably fair casino is completly random. So no ... resetting seed, "avoid betting continuously", wearing talismans does not work.

Mathematics is always theoretically correct but an interesting point to analyze here.

"theoretically" ????


I read the reply a couple of times and recall what I learnt from the college stat., I think it really gives me good information on how everything is being controlled. I am planning to write an app to reproduce this game for fun. I did some research and I see the following formula to approach the cumulative probability function for the multiplier given as  crash_multiplier = (100 * e - h) / (e - h) / 100

P(X<=x) = 1 - 1/x

where X is a random multiplier and x is the certain cap of the multiplier, it is saying that the chance to see any multiplier less than a given value of x is the complement of 1/x. So when x=2, it is 1-1/2 = 0.5 or 50% of chance to have any multipliers less than 2x. Here I am confused about the gameplay. What should I do to pick the crash_multiplier for each game? I saw that P(X<=x)=1-1/x is derived in the assumption that h is a uniform random number so I guess   I should just pick a uniformly random number (h) between for [0, e-1] as the crash_multiplier for each game and let the player bet on it and wait for the player's cashing out? And that is all?

What about the incremental of the multiplier in time, could the multiplier increase at any interval?




ah, now I understand. Many thanks.

If a player decides to bet $1 at a time but chooses to cash out when it is 1.05x reaches and repeat this strategy thousands of times, will it benefit the player to have positive gain? Why not and how does the math forbid that to happen?

with 1.05x you need to bet and win 20 times to double your 1$. When you lose you lose your 1$. The problem with this strategy is that crash (and every casino game) is calculated in a way that casino has statistic advantage over you. So in this case you will lose once each 19 times (ON AVERAGE! You can have 100 wins strike but sooner or later your luck will end). So each time you will win 95 cents with this strategy, you will lose 1$ and be short 5 cents (ON AVERAGE!).

Usually you would have to avoid betting continuously since it would make your chances of winning go down and I heard a lot of players say how fixing the seeds again works for them, so therefore I usually use crash after resetting my seeds and not continually at the same time.

Each bet on provably fair casino is completly random. So no ... resetting seed, "avoid betting continuously", wearing talismans does not work.

Mathematics is always theoretically correct but an interesting point to analyze here.

"theoretically" ????


After reading this, I read more online and I found this one https://github.com/MindingTheData/Crash-Analysis/blob/master/Crash.ipynb
 it uses a similar formula for multiplier but better approximation for the cumulative prob function, I run the code and add all the expectation values for multiplier from 1 to 1000

Code:
e = 0
N = 0
for multiplier in np.arange(1, 1000, 0.01):
  N = N+1
  e = e + 1 + ((1/33) + (32/33)*(.01 + .99*(1 - 1/(multiplier-.01))))*-1 + (multiplier-1)*(1 - ((1/33) + (32/33)*(.01 + .99*(1 - 1/(multiplier-.01)))))

e/(N/1.0)

it ends up with a return of about 96%. If I take multiplier=1.05, should I have P(X<=1.05) = 1/33 + 32/33*(0.01 + 0.99*(1-1/1.05)) = 8.57%, which is pretty low, it doesn't mean if I bet on 1.05x each time, only 8.57% of chance it crashes with multiplier less than 1.05? I am quite confused. I don't understand why all the discussions in this thread are about winning the double of the bet (2x). If I win 1.05x, deduct the bet=1 I made, I still have 0.05 win, isn't it?

I try the following simulation

Code:
e = 2**52
N = 20000
M = 100000
win = 0
for n in range(M):
    h = np.random.randint(0, e-1, size=N)
    crash_mul = (((100 * e - h) / (e-h)) // 1) / 100.0
    crash_mul = (np.random.uniform(size=N)>=(1/33.0))*crash_mul
    bet_mul = np.random.uniform(1.05, 100.06, size=N)
    win = win + bet_mul[bet_mul<crash_mul].sum()

win/(N*M)
which gives something close to 96% but if I fixed the bet_mul to 1.05, I get about 96.9%. Why is it?

If I understand it correctly, the advantage the casino took is on the 1/33 chance to crash instantly, but the bet it still has 32/33 of chance that fixing the 1.05 may end up with a higher return in the simulation, I don't know what is wrong in my code.


[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: timerland on November 04, 2021, 03:19:30 AM
Great thread.

A lot of people go on to accuse provably fair games unfair when they don't even understand the mathematics behind it.

I'm not sure why - it seems like people are either lazy, or don't get maths, or perhaps a combination of both.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 04, 2021, 08:46:11 AM
If I take multiplier=1.05, should I have P(X<=1.05) = 1/33 + 32/33*(0.01 + 0.99*(1-1/1.05)) = 8.57%, which is pretty low, it doesn't mean if I bet on 1.05x each time, only 8.57% of chance it crashes with multiplier less than 1.05? I am quite confused. If I win 1.05x, deduct the bet=1 I made, I still have 0.05 win, isn't it?

So 857 times out of 10 000 times it will crash below 1.05 (on average). So lets say that you are going to play 10 000 games putting 1$ in each game cashing out at 1.05. In this situation you will win 9143 times winning 9143*0.05 = 457.15$ and lose 857 times losing 857 * 1$ = 857$ ending up with 399.85$ net loss.

I'll check rest of your calculation in free time


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: gin.zhe on November 04, 2021, 02:18:52 PM
If I take multiplier=1.05, should I have P(X<=1.05) = 1/33 + 32/33*(0.01 + 0.99*(1-1/1.05)) = 8.57%, which is pretty low, it doesn't mean if I bet on 1.05x each time, only 8.57% of chance it crashes with multiplier less than 1.05? I am quite confused. If I win 1.05x, deduct the bet=1 I made, I still have 0.05 win, isn't it?

So 857 times out of 10 000 times it will crash below 1.05 (on average). So lets say that you are going to play 10 000 games putting 1$ in each game cashing out at 1.05. In this situation you will win 9143 times winning 9143*0.05 = 457.15$ and lose 857 times losing 857 * 1$ = 857$ ending up with 399.85$ net loss.

I'll check rest of your calculation in free time
Yes, I think it sounds right to me. What I am going to say is the math may guarantee for gambler will lose for the long term (the return is just 96% for all possible multipliers taken into account); however, if you bet the small multiplier always, since the probability of getting the crash multiplier less than your betted multiplier is smaller than 10% (if my math is correct), it will not increase the return above 100% but it will gain a bit advantage to players?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: AicecreaME on November 04, 2021, 02:22:34 PM
~

Does algorithm really matter? It's not just the crash game that usually has low values and less possibility of winning, it is also in every game in gambling, and in any platform. But I don't think that Roobet uses the old algorithm as there are already huge number of players that win a big amount in playing Roobet's crash game. And how are you even sure that they are using RHavar's code and not their own? I think only those famous betting platforms with crash games back then only uses that, and new innovating ones are making their own adjustments with the code.

Algorithm is important, because you'll know how the game works. You'll know a lot of things that could help you to verify how many percentage of winning you have in a certain gambling game. Also, I don't know how they found out the algorithm of a game since gambling sites would never make it public, unless someone from inside made a leaked information about it. Knowing the code or algorithm make a game boring, since everyone knows the secret.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 04, 2021, 08:47:04 PM
Yes, I think it sounds right to me. What I am going to say is the math may guarantee for gambler will lose for the long term (the return is just 96% for all possible multipliers taken into account); however, if you bet the small multiplier always, since the probability of getting the crash multiplier less than your betted multiplier is smaller than 10% (if my math is correct), it will not increase the return above 100% but it will gain a bit advantage to players?

Player never have advantage over casino. If you plan to grab 1.05 once with more than 90% probability of success and than run away with your profit and thats where you find "advantage" you need to know that even now casino has advantage. Because out of 10 people who will test your strategy 1 will lose more than the other 9 will win. You may in the lucky 9 or in unlucky one guy. You never know, but risk/reward ratio is negative.



Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: goaldigger on November 04, 2021, 08:51:00 PM
Yes, I think it sounds right to me. What I am going to say is the math may guarantee for gambler will lose for the long term (the return is just 96% for all possible multipliers taken into account); however, if you bet the small multiplier always, since the probability of getting the crash multiplier less than your betted multiplier is smaller than 10% (if my math is correct), it will not increase the return above 100% but it will gain a bit advantage to players?

Player never have advantage over casino. If you plan to grab 1.05 once with more than 90% probability of success and than run away with your profit and thats where you find "advantage" you need to know that even now casino has advantage. Because out of 10 people who will test your strategy 1 will lose more than the other 9 will win. You may in the lucky 9 or in unlucky one guy. You never know, but risk/reward ratio is negative.
This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Mahanton on November 04, 2021, 08:59:34 PM
Yes, I think it sounds right to me. What I am going to say is the math may guarantee for gambler will lose for the long term (the return is just 96% for all possible multipliers taken into account); however, if you bet the small multiplier always, since the probability of getting the crash multiplier less than your betted multiplier is smaller than 10% (if my math is correct), it will not increase the return above 100% but it will gain a bit advantage to players?

Player never have advantage over casino. If you plan to grab 1.05 once with more than 90% probability of success and than run away with your profit and thats where you find "advantage" you need to know that even now casino has advantage. Because out of 10 people who will test your strategy 1 will lose more than the other 9 will win. You may in the lucky 9 or in unlucky one guy. You never know, but risk/reward ratio is negative.
This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.
Basing up with those calculations and numbers on where OP had written then not all would really able to get on whats been said on that yet everyone would really presume out on general perspective when it comes to odds and chances with crash games.

House do always win in the end and its always been like this.Doesnt matter you are dealing with crash games,dice or slots then it will really be just giving off
the same vibe.

Thing here is that you do enjoy on what you are doing.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: AmoreJaz on November 04, 2021, 10:35:12 PM
Yes, I think it sounds right to me. What I am going to say is the math may guarantee for gambler will lose for the long term (the return is just 96% for all possible multipliers taken into account); however, if you bet the small multiplier always, since the probability of getting the crash multiplier less than your betted multiplier is smaller than 10% (if my math is correct), it will not increase the return above 100% but it will gain a bit advantage to players?

Player never have advantage over casino. If you plan to grab 1.05 once with more than 90% probability of success and than run away with your profit and thats where you find "advantage" you need to know that even now casino has advantage. Because out of 10 people who will test your strategy 1 will lose more than the other 9 will win. You may in the lucky 9 or in unlucky one guy. You never know, but risk/reward ratio is negative.
This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.
Basing up with those calculations and numbers on where OP had written then not all would really able to get on whats been said on that yet everyone would really presume out on general perspective when it comes to odds and chances with crash games.

House do always win in the end and its always been like this.Doesnt matter you are dealing with crash games,dice or slots then it will really be just giving off
the same vibe.

Thing here is that you do enjoy on what you are doing.

and if you are playing this crash game in manual mode, i definitely can say, you will have adrenaline rush. but time and time, if you will continue to play, you will end up losing in this game if you don't know when to stop. i don't consider this game to where you can possibly gain profits, but just a mere entertainement only. as you said, at the end, house always win in most classic games.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Mahanton on November 04, 2021, 11:50:07 PM
Yes, I think it sounds right to me. What I am going to say is the math may guarantee for gambler will lose for the long term (the return is just 96% for all possible multipliers taken into account); however, if you bet the small multiplier always, since the probability of getting the crash multiplier less than your betted multiplier is smaller than 10% (if my math is correct), it will not increase the return above 100% but it will gain a bit advantage to players?

Player never have advantage over casino. If you plan to grab 1.05 once with more than 90% probability of success and than run away with your profit and thats where you find "advantage" you need to know that even now casino has advantage. Because out of 10 people who will test your strategy 1 will lose more than the other 9 will win. You may in the lucky 9 or in unlucky one guy. You never know, but risk/reward ratio is negative.
This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.
Basing up with those calculations and numbers on where OP had written then not all would really able to get on whats been said on that yet everyone would really presume out on general perspective when it comes to odds and chances with crash games.

House do always win in the end and its always been like this.Doesnt matter you are dealing with crash games,dice or slots then it will really be just giving off
the same vibe.

Thing here is that you do enjoy on what you are doing.

and if you are playing this crash game in manual mode, i definitely can say, you will have adrenaline rush. but time and time, if you will continue to play, you will end up losing in this game if you don't know when to stop. i don't consider this game to where you can possibly gain profits, but just a mere entertainement only. as you said, at the end, house always win in most classic games.
In most crash games i do play there are  even people who do set out automatically 1.01x multiplier and when they do bust up since theres 1.00x number bust  up then those penny profits would gone in an instant or on a breeze which i dont really see to be that relevant or interesting on setting up those numbers considering that
crash could  happen in number of  bets.When playing crash then i do much prefer on setting it on 2x profit then cash out but there  are times when
greed kicks in then  you do go YOLO.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: YOSHIE on November 05, 2021, 10:19:23 AM
Most of the sites having Crash as a game are using one or the other version of his algorithm. Basically, crash game is based on this mathematical formula:
I also think that the algorithm works to sort the steps in completing the Crash game in the shortest time and the highest time, for example: 2.68X to 100.00X and so on.

Gambling sites using algorithms, especially Crash games, they can be defined as computer programs in determining steps and instructions as I know (input or output) this is logical.

Because I see in some game crashes, one or two rounds can reach 2.78X and the third 10.56X so on can shift in the sixth round can reach 100X, here it can be said, if I predict the Algorithm system is needed, 5% I think someone who controls the game crash may not at all let alone apply 24 hours.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: KTChampions on November 05, 2021, 10:55:19 AM
I think that the algorithm is what matter the most in software controlled games.In slot machines it is the algorithm that controls everything and although most of the providers say each spin is independent of each other we all know that getting on the reels the top combination happens rarely because the algorithm has decided so bu being programmed by the developers of the game to behave that way.Same with crash games and other software related games.

Knowing the algorithm is quite interesting, but in fact, if it does not contain any errors, it does not give you any information that you could use in the game to improve your results. As for the relationship between spins, it does not occur at the level of programming of each spin, but at the level of the algorithm + a random number generator that provides input signals to this algorithm. We can say that each spin is really independent.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 07, 2021, 11:41:49 AM
and if you are playing this crash game in manual mode, i definitely can say, you will have adrenaline rush. but time and time, if you will continue to play, you will end up losing in this game if you don't know when to stop. i don't consider this game to where you can possibly gain profits, but just a mere entertainement only. as you said, at the end, house always win in most classic games.

There is no game that is designed in a way to be a place "where you can possibly gain profits". Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make. It does not matter what game you play. If you plan to cash out at x2 on crash you can go to dice and play high/low with x2 reward or roulette black/red. It will have the same output for you. In the end of the day its all about emotions during playtime (not about winning in a long run because its impossible). Thats why crash is so popular, especially when you have no plan about when you want to exit.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Distinctin on November 07, 2021, 11:46:22 AM
Great effort on analyzing the game but honestly IMO it's not necessary anymore as knowing the house has the edge, even how small it is, would already tell us that we will never win in the long run. That's why in my case, I don't spend much time and effort anymore on analyzing how to win in a game where there's a house edge as I know my real chance, I call that a luck-based game.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: JohnBitCo on November 07, 2021, 12:27:06 PM
If I take multiplier=1.05, should I have P(X<=1.05) = 1/33 + 32/33*(0.01 + 0.99*(1-1/1.05)) = 8.57%, which is pretty low, it doesn't mean if I bet on 1.05x each time, only 8.57% of chance it crashes with multiplier less than 1.05? I am quite confused. If I win 1.05x, deduct the bet=1 I made, I still have 0.05 win, isn't it?

So 857 times out of 10 000 times it will crash below 1.05 (on average). So lets say that you are going to play 10 000 games putting 1$ in each game cashing out at 1.05. In this situation you will win 9143 times winning 9143*0.05 = 457.15$ and lose 857 times losing 857 * 1$ = 857$ ending up with 399.85$ net loss.

I'll check rest of your calculation in free time

It won't be reasonable to take profit at 1.05 on 10,000 games. Lets suppose if some one take profit at 2x on every crash game, will be be profitable even with you losing more games and wining few ?  Or you can try with taking profit at 30x in the 100 games with 1 dollar in each game. I tried to calculate with different values but could not find a fool proof winning formula.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: robelneo on November 07, 2021, 12:41:44 PM

This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.

I'm playing the Crash game and it's one of the exciting and less boring games I always check if there are crash games on casinos I'm playing but compared to the other luck-based game you have control over when you want to stop and to pass, I never think of probability unless I have a big wage and decided that I will try to beat the house edge, but in the long run after all the computation the house will still win, unless someone uses that formula and claim that he wins big using that formula.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Woodie on November 07, 2021, 12:56:57 PM
wow it actually gets mathematically interesting getting to the reason why Crash crashes at lower values but unfortunately the OP has a handful of information to really get how the whole algorithm works in such a way.

There is no game that is designed in a way to be a place "where you can possibly gain profits". Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make.
at the end of the day casino games arent all about fun and games, this is a profit making business and i will disagree to this statement that it will late you break even in all your runs....if it were designed like this then martingale would have been the best strategy to win  on casino games!!

It does not matter what game you play. If you plan to cash out at x2 on crash you can go to dice and play high/low with x2 reward or roulette black/red. It will have the same output for you.
crash games are volatile and unpredictable , i have seen on several occasions a string of less than x1.3 get hit and nothing of a x2 which makes this unpredictable, roulette has to be a better choice of games :P


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Beparanf on November 07, 2021, 03:20:25 PM

This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.

I'm playing the Crash game and it's one of the exciting and less boring games I always check if there are crash games on casinos I'm playing but compared to the other luck-based game you have control over when you want to stop and to pass, I never think of probability unless I have a big wage and decided that I will try to beat the house edge, but in the long run after all the computation the house will still win, unless someone uses that formula and claim that he wins big using that formula.

There's no way to beat the house since we don't have any idea on the size of there bank roll. The only way that you can possibly defeat the house is when your money greater than to the house bank roll since your enemy is a fixed percentage of your bet and you will lose in the long run if your bank roll can't withstand the long lose streak. As the OP probability tabulated, You can possibly win if you can bet most of the round with fixed amount and cashout on same target price for as many round as possible until the long green streak come. Playing it randomly will not gonna give a significant result overtime.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: virasog on November 07, 2021, 04:47:59 PM

This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.

I'm playing the Crash game and it's one of the exciting and less boring games I always check if there are crash games on casinos I'm playing but compared to the other luck-based game you have control over when you want to stop and to pass, I never think of probability unless I have a big wage and decided that I will try to beat the house edge, but in the long run after all the computation the house will still win, unless someone uses that formula and claim that he wins big using that formula.

I also find the crash games very interesting but also i have lost a lot of money in these crashes. Still i am addicted to it and can't resist myself for not playing them.
Although most games are burst at low values but there are some which may give you 300 - 500% profit.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Raflesia on November 07, 2021, 05:08:10 PM
I also find the crash games very interesting but also i have lost a lot of money in these crashes. Still i am addicted to it and can't resist myself for not playing them.
Although most games are burst at low values but there are some which may give you 300 - 500% profit.
You should be able to control it if you have lost a lot of money in the game crash because it is up to us to take advantage of it, but after all we always want high numbers and that can be a trap where lose a lot of money, but after a long pass on the rocket Of course profits can be multiplied by 100%.
The game crash is easy but the control is the most important for me because this is what we will determine even though we take a low score but it is a good trick.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: fortunecrypto on November 07, 2021, 11:57:34 PM

You should be able to control it if you have lost a lot of money in the game crash because it is up to us to take advantage of it, but after all we always want high numbers and that can be a trap where lose a lot of money, but after a long pass on the rocket Of course profits can be multiplied by 100%.
The game crash is easy but the control is the most important for me because this is what we will determine even though we take a low score but it is a good trick.

The computation or formula has something to offer to those who love to play and make a profit from crash games, compared to other games here, your quick action and thinking will play a big role in your winnings, I always have that feeling that I should have not stopped that early when the rocket is heading to ten times profit or I should have stopped early, your greed is your enemy here if you want more you really have to try your luck.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: TimeTeller on November 07, 2021, 11:59:19 PM

You should be able to control it if you have lost a lot of money in the game crash because it is up to us to take advantage of it, but after all we always want high numbers and that can be a trap where lose a lot of money, but after a long pass on the rocket Of course profits can be multiplied by 100%.
The game crash is easy but the control is the most important for me because this is what we will determine even though we take a low score but it is a good trick.

The computation or formula has something to offer to those who love to play and make a profit from crash games, compared to other games here, your quick action and thinking will play a big role in your winnings, I always have that feeling that I should have not stopped that early when the rocket is heading to ten times profit or I should have stopped early, your greed is your enemy here if you want more you really have to try your luck.

Usually we want more when we are seeing the rocket is still going up. ;D
We could have earn like 10x or 15x, but as we see the numbers going up, we don't want to cash out yet.
This is true as based from my experience, I also have that kind of mentality from time to time.
But if you are happy like getting 5x or 8x, you actually already got a very good profit from your bet.
Anyway, greed is always here and players always battle that kind of mind set.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: judeafante on November 08, 2021, 12:41:32 AM

Anyway, greed is always here and players always battle that kind of mind set.

Crash game is one of the games where your greed will be tested, one of the interesting luck-based games, and every casino should have this, there are silent supporters and players of crash games and it's a game where you can lose fast and win big, people playing this game should not have a weak heart.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 09, 2021, 11:26:28 AM
There is no game that is designed in a way to be a place "where you can possibly gain profits". Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make.
at the end of the day casino games arent all about fun and games, this is a profit making business and i will disagree to this statement that it will late you break even in all your runs....if it were designed like this then martingale would have been the best strategy to win  on casino games!!

You miss my point. I said "Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make" so if you pyt 100$ into single bet casino is designed in a way to give oyu back your 100$ minus house edge (most often 1-5%) so give back 100$-(1$~5$)= ~98$ on average. So you are down 2$ on each 100$ bet on average. This 2$ is casino profit. I didn't said that casino does not earn on you. Its designed in a way to give you fun, entertaiment and chance to win big but takes small portion of your wallet with every bet you take (on average!)

crash games are volatile and unpredictable , i have seen on several occasions a string of less than x1.3 get hit and nothing of a x2 which makes this unpredictable, roulette has to be a better choice of games :P

Wrong. Crash is predictible. If it was unpredictable how would casino earn on it? It may be umpredictible during single try, but after N tries (where n tends to infinity) you end up with:
current balance = starting balance - (house edge*your bet) * number of bets



Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Kakmakr on November 09, 2021, 12:42:42 PM
What I want to know is this... In Stake.com every player are issued with a Client Seed and a Server Seed, but a bunch of players are playing with the same outcome. Do they disable the individual client seed and server seed for each person entering and participating in their original Crash game?

It almost looks like these Crash games are scripted, because it seems to anticipate when you are going to increase your bet and that you are trying to recover losses, but I know this is not true... because many people are sharing the same result. ( I tested it with friends)

Crash still kick my a$$............  >:(


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Sterbens on November 09, 2021, 01:10:16 PM

Anyway, greed is always here and players always battle that kind of mind set.

Crash game is one of the games where your greed will be tested, one of the interesting luck-based games, and every casino should have this, there are silent supporters and players of crash games and it's a game where you can lose fast and win big, people playing this game should not have a weak heart.

I'm not too sure that this Crash game is really relying on luck or not because this game is too easy to manipulate and we just need to make Cash Out quickly but the rocket is just rising and falling. If we wait, we often lose.
I don't play this game often because it's too easy to lose, plus it's more than 2x.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Fortify on November 09, 2021, 09:05:21 PM
There is no game that is designed in a way to be a place "where you can possibly gain profits". Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make.
at the end of the day casino games arent all about fun and games, this is a profit making business and i will disagree to this statement that it will late you break even in all your runs....if it were designed like this then martingale would have been the best strategy to win  on casino games!!

You miss my point. I said "Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make" so if you pyt 100$ into single bet casino is designed in a way to give oyu back your 100$ minus house edge (most often 1-5%) so give back 100$-(1$~5$)= ~98$ on average. So you are down 2$ on each 100$ bet on average. This 2$ is casino profit. I didn't said that casino does not earn on you. Its designed in a way to give you fun, entertaiment and chance to win big but takes small portion of your wallet with every bet you take (on average!)

crash games are volatile and unpredictable , i have seen on several occasions a string of less than x1.3 get hit and nothing of a x2 which makes this unpredictable, roulette has to be a better choice of games :P

Wrong. Crash is predictible. If it was unpredictable how would casino earn on it? It may be umpredictible during single try, but after N tries (where n tends to infinity) you end up with:
current balance = starting balance - (house edge*your bet) * number of bets

This is the truth and it is so simple for outsiders to understand when put in such clear terms. Gamblers often have a habit of lying to themselves however, or they think that the casino somehow owes them a mega win. Even if that mega win were to come it is rarely enough to someone with this addiction. The casino is quite happy to let you spread your losses over a longer time period, because you get to see more wins and build up that habit forming behavior that keeps you coming back for more. They would rather you win back money and take a tiny commission each time, rather than one and done where you will not reload your balance.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: paxmao on November 09, 2021, 09:54:23 PM
There is no game that is designed in a way to be a place "where you can possibly gain profits". Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make.
at the end of the day casino games arent all about fun and games, this is a profit making business and i will disagree to this statement that it will late you break even in all your runs....if it were designed like this then martingale would have been the best strategy to win  on casino games!!

You miss my point. I said "Each game is designed in a way to let you win back what you put in minus house edge (on average) with every bet you make" so if you pyt 100$ into single bet casino is designed in a way to give oyu back your 100$ minus house edge (most often 1-5%) so give back 100$-(1$~5$)= ~98$ on average. So you are down 2$ on each 100$ bet on average. This 2$ is casino profit. I didn't said that casino does not earn on you. Its designed in a way to give you fun, entertaiment and chance to win big but takes small portion of your wallet with every bet you take (on average!)

crash games are volatile and unpredictable , i have seen on several occasions a string of less than x1.3 get hit and nothing of a x2 which makes this unpredictable, roulette has to be a better choice of games :P

Wrong. Crash is predictible. If it was unpredictable how would casino earn on it? It may be umpredictible during single try, but after N tries (where n tends to infinity) you end up with:
current balance = starting balance - (house edge*your bet) * number of bets



I think that your estimate is much too conservative. A 2% gain for the house would normally not only not cover the operating costs but leaves it open for pure default in case any risk materialises. Companies usually have a 50% gross margin on sales (it may be very variable) which tends to result in 10 to 20% of gross marging. I think that a 2% of the deposits would not even cover half of that.. I would be thinking of 15 to 20% of deposit.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: aioc on November 09, 2021, 11:32:14 PM

Anyway, greed is always here and players always battle that kind of mind set.

Crash game is one of the games where your greed will be tested, one of the interesting luck-based games, and every casino should have this, there are silent supporters and players of crash games and it's a game where you can lose fast and win big, people playing this game should not have a weak heart.

I'm not too sure that this Crash game is really relying on luck or not because this game is too easy to manipulate and we just need to make Cash Out quickly but the rocket is just rising and falling. If we wait, we often lose.
I don't play this game often because it's too easy to lose, plus it's more than 2x.

If you're not putting weight on winning money and just want to have fun and excitement this is a go-to game, I don't know if the formula presented by OP is 100% correct but when you have a house edge that comes up to play I don't think any formula can beat the house edge, I did not even check the formula, it's just like a martingale method where you are giving a false of winning just because you are doubling your bet for every loss, that's not going to work 100%.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Mahanton on November 09, 2021, 11:45:30 PM

Anyway, greed is always here and players always battle that kind of mind set.

Crash game is one of the games where your greed will be tested, one of the interesting luck-based games, and every casino should have this, there are silent supporters and players of crash games and it's a game where you can lose fast and win big, people playing this game should not have a weak heart.

I'm not too sure that this Crash game is really relying on luck or not because this game is too easy to manipulate and we just need to make Cash Out quickly but the rocket is just rising and falling. If we wait, we often lose.
I don't play this game often because it's too easy to lose, plus it's more than 2x.

If you're not putting weight on winning money and just want to have fun and excitement this is a go-to game, I don't know if the formula presented by OP is 100% correct but when you have a house edge that comes up to play I don't think any formula can beat the house edge, I did not even check the formula, it's just like a martingale method where you are giving a false of winning just because you are doubling your bet for every loss, that's not going to work 100%.
A mindset that people should really have and stop having that delusion that they could beat up the house with just some mere formulas or something that do really exist
which nothing on this world could really take out advantage on something or having some exploit because if it does exist on the first place then it would be most likely
been blocked and patched but we know on how reality works and thats why its important that we should play for fun and not minding or forcing yourself to be profitable.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Tytanowy Janusz on November 10, 2021, 09:19:50 AM
I think that your estimate is much too conservative. A 2% gain for the house would normally not only not cover the operating costs but leaves it open for pure default in case any risk materialises. Companies usually have a 50% gross margin on sales (it may be very variable) which tends to result in 10 to 20% of gross marging. I think that a 2% of the deposits would not even cover half of that.. I would be thinking of 15 to 20% of deposit.

Casio is not a steel factory. House edge of 50% would be crazy high. Even 10% is way to much. Most dice games has 1-3% and its not like "I think" its 1-3%. I've calculated this for multiple casinos. House edge on roulette (single 0) is 2.70% (simple math - 1/37), house edge on American roulette (0 and 00) is 5.2% (simple math - 2/38). House edge on games like crash (where you cant calculate odds of winning by looking at UI only) are most ofthen higher but even those are lower than 7%. At least on legit casino that i've checked (calculating based on data from provably fair section).


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Sterbens on November 10, 2021, 05:16:25 PM
If you're not putting weight on winning money and just want to have fun and excitement this is a go-to game, I don't know if the formula presented by OP is 100% correct but when you have a house edge that comes up to play I don't think any formula can beat the house edge, I did not even check the formula, it's just like a martingale method where you are giving a false of winning just because you are doubling your bet for every loss, that's not going to work 100%.
A mindset that people should really have and stop having that delusion that they could beat up the house with just some mere formulas or something that do really exist
which nothing on this world could really take out advantage on something or having some exploit because if it does exist on the first place then it would be most likely
been blocked and patched but we know on how reality works and thats why its important that we should play for fun and not minding or forcing yourself to be profitable.

Indeed, for some of us, we certainly think that any gambling is indeed sufficient as an alternative to entertainment and is not recommended as excessive opiate advice. Controlling gambling is the main key so that every time we lose we can organize calmly, breed in winning conditions even though of course we just need to take profits early and come back at a time that requires gambling again. Well, that can't be done by everyone, if it's basically just to make a profit, in the Crash game we certainly have to be more nimble and do Out Cash as quickly as possible, even with only 1 or 2 fraud.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: KTChampions on November 10, 2021, 08:18:30 PM
I think that your estimate is much too conservative. A 2% gain for the house would normally not only not cover the operating costs but leaves it open for pure default in case any risk materialises. Companies usually have a 50% gross margin on sales (it may be very variable) which tends to result in 10 to 20% of gross marging. I think that a 2% of the deposits would not even cover half of that.. I would be thinking of 15 to 20% of deposit.

Look: a player comes to the casino and has $ 100, the house edge is only 1%. The player plays different games by placing bets of different sizes. On average, he will be able to make bets no more than 10k dollars on average, and at this indicator all his money will already be at the casino. That is, in fact, he will lose 100% of his deposit. The house edge and the "percentage of the player's deposit income" are two different things.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: michellee on November 11, 2021, 07:31:22 AM
Indeed, for some of us, we certainly think that any gambling is indeed sufficient as an alternative to entertainment and is not recommended as excessive opiate advice. Controlling gambling is the main key so that every time we lose we can organize calmly, breed in winning conditions even though of course we just need to take profits early and come back at a time that requires gambling again. Well, that can't be done by everyone, if it's basically just to make a profit, in the Crash game we certainly have to be more nimble and do Out Cash as quickly as possible, even with only 1 or 2 fraud.
It is hard to organize our time in gambling if we play gambling too often as that can make us forget to stop gambling. Only by controlling ourselves, we can play moderately and can manage our time and money in gambling.

The Crash game can give us pleasure and excitement playing that game so we really need to have control inside the game to prevent losing more money. Basically, everyone can do control themselves but sometimes their greed possesses them so that makes them follow the greed to chase the winning.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Peanutswar on November 11, 2021, 11:22:10 AM
Indeed, for some of us, we certainly think that any gambling is indeed sufficient as an alternative to entertainment and is not recommended as excessive opiate advice. Controlling gambling is the main key so that every time we lose we can organize calmly, breed in winning conditions even though of course we just need to take profits early and come back at a time that requires gambling again. Well, that can't be done by everyone, if it's basically just to make a profit, in the Crash game we certainly have to be more nimble and do Out Cash as quickly as possible, even with only 1 or 2 fraud.
It is hard to organize our time in gambling if we play gambling too often as that can make us forget to stop gambling. Only by controlling ourselves, we can play moderately and can manage our time and money in gambling.

The Crash game can give us pleasure and excitement playing that game so we really need to have control inside the game to prevent losing more money. Basically, everyone can do control themselves but sometimes their greed possesses them so that makes them follow the greed to chase the winning.

Depends on the player how they manage the situation there are some people control themselves and some people who really want to play gambling no matter what happens to their money. Crash game is one of the most excite games because we know it's all about luck and once you hit it there's a chance to get tons of profit. Some of the people use the bonus spins or head starts to take advantage to get a higher multiplier also they have a good animation so their player gets might entertained.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Cling18 on November 11, 2021, 12:08:32 PM

This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.

I'm playing the Crash game and it's one of the exciting and less boring games I always check if there are crash games on casinos I'm playing but compared to the other luck-based game you have control over when you want to stop and to pass, I never think of probability unless I have a big wage and decided that I will try to beat the house edge, but in the long run after all the computation the house will still win, unless someone uses that formula and claim that he wins big using that formula.

I also find the crash games very interesting but also i have lost a lot of money in these crashes. Still i am addicted to it and can't resist myself for not playing them.
Although most games are burst at low values but there are some which may give you 300 - 500% profit.

I also got addicted to it especially when I was aiming to double my money through this game because we can't deny the fact that it's too entertaining but I learned to put limitations when I had continuous losses. Yes, 300-500% profit is possible but only lucky players could gain that much.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: michellee on November 11, 2021, 02:30:42 PM
Indeed, for some of us, we certainly think that any gambling is indeed sufficient as an alternative to entertainment and is not recommended as excessive opiate advice. Controlling gambling is the main key so that every time we lose we can organize calmly, breed in winning conditions even though of course we just need to take profits early and come back at a time that requires gambling again. Well, that can't be done by everyone, if it's basically just to make a profit, in the Crash game we certainly have to be more nimble and do Out Cash as quickly as possible, even with only 1 or 2 fraud.
It is hard to organize our time in gambling if we play gambling too often as that can make us forget to stop gambling. Only by controlling ourselves, we can play moderately and can manage our time and money in gambling.

The Crash game can give us pleasure and excitement playing that game so we really need to have control inside the game to prevent losing more money. Basically, everyone can do control themselves but sometimes their greed possesses them so that makes them follow the greed to chase the winning.

Depends on the player how they manage the situation there are some people control themselves and some people who really want to play gambling no matter what happens to their money. Crash game is one of the most excite games because we know it's all about luck and once you hit it there's a chance to get tons of profit. Some of the people use the bonus spins or head starts to take advantage to get a higher multiplier also they have a good animation so their player gets might entertained.
Yes, I agree that depends on the player because every decision will need responsibility by them. No matter what the gambling games they play, if they can control themselves, there is nothing to worry about. The crash game needs more control in greediness as we can see the chance to lose the money shortly. If you feel you are good at controlling yourself, you will find excitement in playing the crash game and making money from that game. But always be careful placing the money because will impact your funds.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: pawanjain on November 11, 2021, 03:47:04 PM

This sounds interesting but confusing at the same time.
Crash game is just like a slots game with a little twist since you can control when to take profit, and the house always win on this kind of game since its based on their system and they already worked to that numbers so someone will really lose the money, this is gambling after all.

I'm playing the Crash game and it's one of the exciting and less boring games I always check if there are crash games on casinos I'm playing but compared to the other luck-based game you have control over when you want to stop and to pass, I never think of probability unless I have a big wage and decided that I will try to beat the house edge, but in the long run after all the computation the house will still win, unless someone uses that formula and claim that he wins big using that formula.

I also find the crash games very interesting but also i have lost a lot of money in these crashes. Still i am addicted to it and can't resist myself for not playing them.
Although most games are burst at low values but there are some which may give you 300 - 500% profit.

I also got addicted to it especially when I was aiming to double my money through this game because we can't deny the fact that it's too entertaining but I learned to put limitations when I had continuous losses. Yes, 300-500% profit is possible but only lucky players could gain that much.

Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.



Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Sterbens on November 11, 2021, 06:45:16 PM
It is hard to organize our time in gambling if we play gambling too often as that can make us forget to stop gambling. Only by controlling ourselves, we can play moderately and can manage our time and money in gambling.

The Crash game can give us pleasure and excitement playing that game so we really need to have control inside the game to prevent losing more money. Basically, everyone can do control themselves but sometimes their greed possesses them so that makes them follow the greed to chase the winning.

Depends on the player how they manage the situation there are some people control themselves and some people who really want to play gambling no matter what happens to their money. Crash game is one of the most excite games because we know it's all about luck and once you hit it there's a chance to get tons of profit. Some of the people use the bonus spins or head starts to take advantage to get a higher multiplier also they have a good animation so their player gets might entertained.

Actually all have the same concept whether in the Crash game or other games all the possibilities of winning when we can anticipate quickly and carefully. Especially when playing the Crash game we already recognize profits but are interested in risking everything in one tap. It was as if the game was being manipulated the pulse and the rocket stopped at a multiple of 1x. Have you experienced this while playing the Crash game.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: coin-investor on November 11, 2021, 10:33:49 PM



Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.



These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit, Crash game is a game of greed it measures your greed if you can control it and how far do you want to go and if you are comfortable in losing everything.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: YOSHIE on November 12, 2021, 08:28:32 AM
These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit,
Almost the same experience what happened when I placed a bet in a crash game, maybe everyone involved in crash gambling has experienced the same thing, sometimes it's quite tense between doubt and certainty, it could be the other way around when the stop button is pressed, the rocket's propulsion doesn't stop, for example: the rocket continues to move up to the 10X point.

Only certain gambling sites use crash games, but if most gambling sites use Dual crash games, of course I will choose that game, I'm a little more relaxed, not tense like Crash.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: noormcs5 on November 12, 2021, 01:59:59 PM



Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.



These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit, Crash game is a game of greed it measures your greed if you can control it and how far do you want to go and if you are comfortable in losing everything.

Those who play crash games are the ones who are greedy otherwise why would you play a crash game. You won't be playing this game to cash out the seed money on every game. You will try to stay longer in the game to earn more money. Sometimes if you are not greedy, you will quit early and not able to make huge gains in this game.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Peanutswar on November 12, 2021, 02:06:07 PM
It is hard to organize our time in gambling if we play gambling too often as that can make us forget to stop gambling. Only by controlling ourselves, we can play moderately and can manage our time and money in gambling.

The Crash game can give us pleasure and excitement playing that game so we really need to have control inside the game to prevent losing more money. Basically, everyone can do control themselves but sometimes their greed possesses them so that makes them follow the greed to chase the winning.

Depends on the player how they manage the situation there are some people control themselves and some people who really want to play gambling no matter what happens to their money. Crash game is one of the most excite games because we know it's all about luck and once you hit it there's a chance to get tons of profit. Some of the people use the bonus spins or head starts to take advantage to get a higher multiplier also they have a good animation so their player gets might entertained.

Actually all have the same concept whether in the Crash game or other games all the possibilities of winning when we can anticipate quickly and carefully. Especially when playing the Crash game we already recognize profits but are interested in risking everything in one tap. It was as if the game was being manipulated the pulse and the rocket stopped at a multiple of 1x. Have you experienced this while playing the Crash game.

I experience to buy with the bonus head start and it did do well which is favor for me but again this is gambling and its all about the luck after winning a good streak i become greed and make another one that causes to cut my profit into half and also I try crash game mostly in the demo today just to satisfy my self even though its just a not profitable in my side as long as I enjoy, sometimes demo makes a good thing to have an insight to the player what is the possible outcome.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: FatFork on November 12, 2021, 07:03:05 PM



Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.



These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit, Crash game is a game of greed it measures your greed if you can control it and how far do you want to go and if you are comfortable in losing everything.

Those who play crash games are the ones who are greedy otherwise why would you play a crash game. You won't be playing this game to cash out the seed money on every game. You will try to stay longer in the game to earn more money. Sometimes if you are not greedy, you will quit early and not able to make huge gains in this game.

No, I don't think this is right. I'm sure many players play a crash game for fun and not just out of greed. Having played crash games myself, I can tell you that from experience. Of course, we all love to win, but I wouldn't call it greed.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: pawanjain on November 13, 2021, 06:26:36 AM
Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.

These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit, Crash game is a game of greed it measures your greed if you can control it and how far do you want to go and if you are comfortable in losing everything.

Those who play crash games are the ones who are greedy otherwise why would you play a crash game. You won't be playing this game to cash out the seed money on every game. You will try to stay longer in the game to earn more money. Sometimes if you are not greedy, you will quit early and not able to make huge gains in this game.

It's definitely not like that because I have been playing the crash game since a few years.
Although I started playing it to get profits from the crash game but eventually made up losses.
Then I quit playing the game for a few months and then started playing it again but this time for fun.
I realized that playing the game for fun is more stress free and enjoyable while playing for the money.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: CDC AP on November 13, 2021, 06:31:42 AM
Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.

These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit, Crash game is a game of greed it measures your greed if you can control it and how far do you want to go and if you are comfortable in losing everything.

Those who play crash games are the ones who are greedy otherwise why would you play a crash game. You won't be playing this game to cash out the seed money on every game. You will try to stay longer in the game to earn more money. Sometimes if you are not greedy, you will quit early and not able to make huge gains in this game.

It's definitely not like that because I have been playing the crash game since a few years.
Although I started playing it to get profits from the crash game but eventually made up losses.
Then I quit playing the game for a few months and then started playing it again but this time for fun.
I realized that playing the game for fun is more stress free and enjoyable while playing for the money.
Well its quiet difficult to play game only for fun because we may think at start that we are playing only for fun but if we start loosing then there is no fun in it. Some one with a very strong mindset can able to do that as it is not easy to control your emotions at that time. Yes some people can do it but for me its quiet difficult to control when i start loosing.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: cafucafucafu on November 13, 2021, 10:23:44 AM
Very nice explanation, OP. People accuse of things being rigged far more often than reality.

I was just wondering if you could do something similar explaining the effects of bonuses that are associated with crash games (e.g. when you are the last person to cash out successfully you get a % of the pot?).

What are the implications for EV of that?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: pawanjain on November 13, 2021, 01:51:10 PM
Seeing our bet going 2x and 3x in a matter of few seconds does look amazing and that's what get us in trouble.
Luck is definitely needed if you are thinking to get some decent profits in crash game.
The most important thing is not to play the crash game continuously because that will just end up in losses.
Instead we can play at regular intervals but less number of games at a time.

These are just what one experiences when playing a crash game the feeling of regret when we hit stop and see our profit that could have gone ten times and the feeling of should have stopped early when I have 2 or four times profit, Crash game is a game of greed it measures your greed if you can control it and how far do you want to go and if you are comfortable in losing everything.

Those who play crash games are the ones who are greedy otherwise why would you play a crash game. You won't be playing this game to cash out the seed money on every game. You will try to stay longer in the game to earn more money. Sometimes if you are not greedy, you will quit early and not able to make huge gains in this game.

It's definitely not like that because I have been playing the crash game since a few years.
Although I started playing it to get profits from the crash game but eventually made up losses.
Then I quit playing the game for a few months and then started playing it again but this time for fun.
I realized that playing the game for fun is more stress free and enjoyable while playing for the money.
Well its quiet difficult to play game only for fun because we may think at start that we are playing only for fun but if we start loosing then there is no fun in it. Some one with a very strong mindset can able to do that as it is not easy to control your emotions at that time. Yes some people can do it but for me its quiet difficult to control when i start loosing.

We have to keep in mind that when we are playing for fun, we are putting in money that we can afford to lose.
So in this scenario, if we can afford to lose the money then there's no stress in losing which directly means that we can still have the fun while playing.
So it just depends on the amount of money that we give up for the fun.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: RealMalatesta on November 14, 2021, 09:31:39 AM
First of all, the algorithm for Crash Game is originally developed by RHavar (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=389331) for his well-known site: bustabit.com

Most of the sites having Crash as a game are using one or the other version of his algorithm. Basically, crash game is based on this mathematical formula:

CRASH MULTIPLIER = [(E*100 - H)/(E-H)]/100

E is the extreme value and refers to as limit. While H is a whole number which can be any number but smaller than E. So for example, if E is 10 then H can be any number between 0 and 9. Hence, range for H is 0 to (E-1).
I am not seeing any big differences here from all existing algorithm of all slots or rolling games. For example, almost all algorithms are working like generating random numbers from 0 to 99 and the occurrences up to 90 will get no reward and then 91 to 95 will get the least reward and finally the only one number will get the highest reward which got less than 0.01% chances to occur. Still we celebrate these games because it is based on some predefined and mutually agreed algorithm.

So yesterday a forum member asked me why do Crash Games usually crash at lower multiples (mostly lower than 2x)?
I like to ask them if it crashes usually at higher multiples then how houses will survive? Such questioners are not at all fit to be a gambler at first hand. First they need to learn how gambling industry works and then they should start suspecting their operations.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: michellee on November 14, 2021, 10:38:56 AM
We have to keep in mind that when we are playing for fun, we are putting in money that we can afford to lose.
So in this scenario, if we can afford to lose the money then there's no stress in losing which directly means that we can still have the fun while playing.
So it just depends on the amount of money that we give up for the fun.
Some people will try to play longer even if they lose some money because they want to recover their losses. We can afford to lose the money but if we still continue losses in gambling games, that will not be good for us because that can make us lose more money. Nothing we can get if that is the scenario because all of our money is gone without recovering it. So maybe we really need to manage our money and not use too big money just to play gambling.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: pawanjain on November 14, 2021, 11:39:36 AM
We have to keep in mind that when we are playing for fun, we are putting in money that we can afford to lose.
So in this scenario, if we can afford to lose the money then there's no stress in losing which directly means that we can still have the fun while playing.
So it just depends on the amount of money that we give up for the fun.
Some people will try to play longer even if they lose some money because they want to recover their losses. We can afford to lose the money but if we still continue losses in gambling games, that will not be good for us because that can make us lose more money. Nothing we can get if that is the scenario because all of our money is gone without recovering it. So maybe we really need to manage our money and not use too big money just to play gambling.

Yes, money management is the key to fun in gambling. This is why as I said we should only gamble with what we can afford to lose.
In order to not lose more money while gambling frequently the best strategy is to deposit only that amount which you can afford to lose.
So even if you continuously gamble when you lose, you will still be losing only that specific amount and won't be able to gamble anymore.
Having a specific budget for gambling will limit our losses and our ability to gamble frequently.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: STT on November 15, 2021, 09:51:40 PM
The crash game is one of my favorites because it can run so high but this problem that it has bias to fail before 2x is why the house makes money so well from it I guess.   Im not sure of strat to avoid that except perhaps be most optimistic when a long streak has not happened recently perhaps and hope probability is on your side but mostly I think small bets and landing one of the larger multipliers could pay off prior crash loss perhaps.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: dunfida on November 15, 2021, 10:38:12 PM
The crash game is one of my favorites because it can run so high but this problem that it has bias to fail before 2x is why the house makes money so well from it I guess.   Im not sure of strat to avoid that except perhaps be most optimistic when a long streak has not happened recently perhaps and hope probability is on your side but mostly I think small bets and landing one of the larger multipliers could pay off prior crash loss perhaps.
Even busting on 1.0x is very common and even to those people who do stick out on betting on 1.1x multiplier cant really make out assurance that they could profit out and those algorithms about shows off on how
its been calculated.

We dont know exactly on how results turn out to be like that but as long it would be fair and square then it wouldnt really matter that much and there are lots who do still
keep playing despite of the chances.

We know on how high the multiplier could we able to reach off on which we could recover our losses which is a very common mindset.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: SmokerFace on November 15, 2021, 11:36:47 PM
The crash game is one of my favorites because it can run so high but this problem that it has bias to fail before 2x is why the house makes money so well from it I guess.   Im not sure of strat to avoid that except perhaps be most optimistic when a long streak has not happened recently perhaps and hope probability is on your side but mostly I think small bets and landing one of the larger multipliers could pay off prior crash loss perhaps.

The crash game seems good to me but the sites that I play this game on don't share their source code of the game.
However, I've seen some of them share the hash of the round but i cannot find an online tool to verify that.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: michellee on November 16, 2021, 02:52:13 AM
We have to keep in mind that when we are playing for fun, we are putting in money that we can afford to lose.
So in this scenario, if we can afford to lose the money then there's no stress in losing which directly means that we can still have the fun while playing.
So it just depends on the amount of money that we give up for the fun.
Some people will try to play longer even if they lose some money because they want to recover their losses. We can afford to lose the money but if we still continue losses in gambling games, that will not be good for us because that can make us lose more money. Nothing we can get if that is the scenario because all of our money is gone without recovering it. So maybe we really need to manage our money and not use too big money just to play gambling.

Yes, money management is the key to fun in gambling. This is why as I said we should only gamble with what we can afford to lose.
In order to not lose more money while gambling frequently the best strategy is to deposit only that amount which you can afford to lose.
So even if you continuously gamble when you lose, you will still be losing only that specific amount and won't be able to gamble anymore.
Having a specific budget for gambling will limit our losses and our ability to gamble frequently.
If we are often playing gambling and depositing too many times, I am afraid that can cost us a high fee in the transaction, no matter what coin we use to gamble. Let say we afford to lose $5-$10 in a one-time deposit, but after you lose $5, you deposit again for $5. If you do that many times in a day, your fee will increase, although you can use the money you can afford to lose.

I prefer to have a specific budget for a week or month and have a limit on how much money we will use for gambling in one day and never try to break the limit.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: pawanjain on November 17, 2021, 03:24:04 PM
We have to keep in mind that when we are playing for fun, we are putting in money that we can afford to lose.
So in this scenario, if we can afford to lose the money then there's no stress in losing which directly means that we can still have the fun while playing.
So it just depends on the amount of money that we give up for the fun.
Some people will try to play longer even if they lose some money because they want to recover their losses. We can afford to lose the money but if we still continue losses in gambling games, that will not be good for us because that can make us lose more money. Nothing we can get if that is the scenario because all of our money is gone without recovering it. So maybe we really need to manage our money and not use too big money just to play gambling.

Yes, money management is the key to fun in gambling. This is why as I said we should only gamble with what we can afford to lose.
In order to not lose more money while gambling frequently the best strategy is to deposit only that amount which you can afford to lose.
So even if you continuously gamble when you lose, you will still be losing only that specific amount and won't be able to gamble anymore.
Having a specific budget for gambling will limit our losses and our ability to gamble frequently.
If we are often playing gambling and depositing too many times, I am afraid that can cost us a high fee in the transaction, no matter what coin we use to gamble. Let say we afford to lose $5-$10 in a one-time deposit, but after you lose $5, you deposit again for $5. If you do that many times in a day, your fee will increase, although you can use the money you can afford to lose.

I prefer to have a specific budget for a week or month and have a limit on how much money we will use for gambling in one day and never try to break the limit.

Ofcourse the fees will take a major chunk of the gambling amount if you deposit multiple times a day.
If you want to play multiple times a say you would rather deposit all in one go.
If you have a budget for gambling that you can afford to lose you would rather use that budget for gambling in frequent intervals and not everyday.
Suppose I have $100 for a month which I can use for gambling then I would rather deposit $25 a week and gamble with it.
I would then wait for the next week and repeat the process. This process will enable us to have a control on our gambling limits as well as keep us within the gambling budget.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: milewilda on November 17, 2021, 08:07:07 PM
The crash game is one of my favorites because it can run so high but this problem that it has bias to fail before 2x is why the house makes money so well from it I guess.   Im not sure of strat to avoid that except perhaps be most optimistic when a long streak has not happened recently perhaps and hope probability is on your side but mostly I think small bets and landing one of the larger multipliers could pay off prior crash loss perhaps.

The crash game seems good to me but the sites that I play this game on don't share their source code of the game.
However, I've seen some of them share the hash of the round but i cannot find an online tool to verify that.
You could verify on these sites.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2807542.0
https://jsfiddle.net/Dexon95/2fmuxLza/show

Dont know what you mean about sharing source code.lol


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Lucasgabd on November 18, 2021, 06:50:03 PM
<...>
If we are often playing gambling and depositing too many times, I am afraid that can cost us a high fee in the transaction, no matter what coin we use to gamble. Let say we afford to lose $5-$10 in a one-time deposit, but after you lose $5, you deposit again for $5. If you do that many times in a day, your fee will increase, although you can use the money you can afford to lose.

I prefer to have a specific budget for a week or month and have a limit on how much money we will use for gambling in one day and never try to break the limit.

depending on the coin these fees will be so small I wouldn't even count it, but totally get your point and I agree that could be a good idea to batch deposits weekly or even monthly, making it in batches also help to avoid compulsion if you are disciplined enough not to top-up balances in case of a loss.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: friday096 on May 25, 2022, 09:47:09 AM
CRASH MULTIPLIER = [(E*100 - H)/(E-H)]/100

i got Formula.
but i don't understand  E.
How can i take E value and where is it is?
How can i get E value?

How can i get lowest probability for graph?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: webtricks on May 25, 2022, 11:40:38 AM
CRASH MULTIPLIER = [(E*100 - H)/(E-H)]/100

i got Formula.
but i don't understand  E.
How can i take E value and where is it is?
How can i get E value?

How can i get lowest probability for graph?

E means extreme. It is the upper limit of the range. Casinos usually keep the range between 1 and 252 so E is 252. However, you can take any number as E just make sure E is a very large number and your RNG can precisely calculate and show such number.


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Ritarirane on July 13, 2022, 01:28:12 PM
Hey,
How would i generate a random crash number with a 2% house edge in C#?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: Ritarirane on July 13, 2022, 04:04:51 PM
CRASH MULTIPLIER = [(E*100 - H)/(E-H)]/100

i got Formula.
but i don't understand  E.
How can i take E value and where is it is?
How can i get E value?

How can i get lowest probability for graph?

E means extreme. It is the upper limit of the range. Casinos usually keep the range between 1 and 252 so E is 252. However, you can take any number as E just make sure E is a very large number and your RNG can precisely calculate and show such number.

Hey,
How would i generate a random crash number with a 2% house edge in C#?


Title: Re: The reason why Crash Games usually crash at lower values
Post by: webtricks on July 13, 2022, 04:34:39 PM
CRASH MULTIPLIER = [(E*100 - H)/(E-H)]/100

i got Formula.
but i don't understand  E.
How can i take E value and where is it is?
How can i get E value?

How can i get lowest probability for graph?

E means extreme. It is the upper limit of the range. Casinos usually keep the range between 1 and 252 so E is 252. However, you can take any number as E just make sure E is a very large number and your RNG can precisely calculate and show such number.

Hey,
How would i generate a random crash number with a 2% house edge in C#?

I don't know how to code in C#