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I've been experimenting with betting on sports, and for now I don't see a difference between when I'm making an educated bet and just betting blindly looking only at the odds. It hasn't been long, however, so I'll keep experimenting.
My question is about a related matter. When I've asked in a different thread what is required to become a good bettor, many have mentioned that knowing the games, the teams and things like that is essential. But I'm sure there's a certain limit to this flow of information, and when this limit is reached, it's not useful and is even potentially harmful for making the decision. If a person is betting on a soccer match and reads about every match of every person on every team, plus weather forecast, plus research on home advantage etc., the amount of information can be overwhelming and probably not that important or useful to bet on the outcome a particular match. What do you think: is there a rule that would help not to drown in information but only focus on what is helpful? Or is it 'the more, the better' in your opinion?

In my opinion, having knowledge gives you a lot of advantage in the game which is a good thing what are the possible outcome of the game.

I want to share the technique I usually do when playing gambling.

For example:

If the game is Best Of 3 or 5 I'm going to choose the best team which has the capability to win this game so I will get a safe and easy profit. This requires a lot of knowledge and information.

If the game is just Best of 1, I will risk my bet/wage right here because anything can possibly happen with this game even the underdog could possibly win this game but be careful this is the riskiest thing you can do and the easiest money you can earn because if you bet into an underdog there is a chance the odd is higher.

I don't necessarily see it as excess of information but rather just plain information that could or could not be useful at any given time. Knowing what's going on in a certain sport does not necessarily mean that you know everything. And when it comes to betting, it's true that you don't need all of these little details and stuff since it still depends on how the game is played in the end. It's what you do with the information at hand that makes you a good bettor and not just some random fanatic taking in all information without even analyzing those. Information known is better than information not known, IMO, and the way one uses it is what sets the difference.

I think the difference is when you make an educated bet you feel a bit more confident that you are going to win the bet and your hopes are higher.When you bet blindly you don’t expect anything and your hopes are not that high.I think too much knowledge is when you stay all day reading different newspapers,analyses and ideas about a certain event.There are many people who study all day an event and claim they make money daily from gambling but I have yet to see one such person.

Okay, the same with the knowledge is everything. This helps you to win the game if you don't want to research about the players, teams stats and other things related to the information I suggest to follow your guts this is the best way because anything can happen on the game sometimes even the professionals get shut down by the underdogs also if you don't want to research or find some information about the game you can also follow the statement of other people or just follow their bets sometimes this is effective too in trading if they called 'copy trading" I think this called as "copy betting" be careful because you are dependent on their knowledge.

Knowledge required to bet on sports games is required,at the same time there is need for luck, learning and data relative to the games over the past. Sports betting is all about fun, when you bet with the excess fund apart from the living needs. The necessity of learning occurs when you the preference is to make money out of the games and not fun.

Knowledge is really helpful, that is the reason a lot of people are into sports betting and mostly winning their bets. Still, there are those games that would really surprise us, upsets, underdog winning, there are games like those. We are gambling, the possibility of winning might be in the team that we are betting but that doesn't mean that the other team has no chance at all, that they have zero percent of winning. It is a game, just like a wheel, doesn't mean it has a good percentage, a good odd, it will be at the top, no, it will roll and no one knows what will happen next. The results usually go as they thought of it, but there are those games that show the result you least expected. Always remember that we are gambling.

If some has good knowledge about the sports in which they are going to bet or about the player statistics etc compared to the opponent, then they have good chance to win the bet. Though in the sport things can change fast but still an edge would be there for those who have deep knowledge about the pro and cons of the teams, players etc.

I doubt such kind of information would give you a lot of benefits. What I do is simply check with the players and try to get an idea about the match. I barely go with blind pick for odd; last time I did with Bayern vs Lyon match though. Having a lot of information in soccer barely work in my opinion.

Much like in trading where too much analysis can result to paralysis by analysis and end up chasing a pump.

In sports betting you better not bet at all if you know both have the chance to beat each other unless you risk counting on the luck you have. Its the usual case though. I have bet countless times to bet to the underdog thinking of my luck to win big because of the odds but it rarely happens. Today I don't crave too much for the information, betting for the top dog will bring profit.

Through my life I have known two people that were successful at sports bets and I can say you that they were completely obsessed with the sport in which they made bets, they will read every single piece of information available to them and then assign odds that they thought were fair and look for matches in which the odds were favourable for them, so in my opinion this is a case in which you need to keep accumulating information until you can finally being to win against the casinos.

I think educated bet always wins than blindly bet if the information you gather is enough. When I'm betting I'll always search prediction in google and read it. If the prediction has a good point I will bet in their team who will win. But when the prediction says it will be a close fight or match, I will bet on higher odds. Sometimes the risk in the higher odds is worth it.

When you have the complete knowledge about a sport then it is more easier to predict the winner and make your bets with more confident, yes sometimes we gather too much information but the results can go to other side which is pretty common in the sport betting and also we never have to forget the luck factor is more important than anything to win a bet.

Having knowledge about a certain game or team is useful when betting but it does not necessarily mean that every information will be useful for the future game. For me, it's already enough to have at least background knowledge, and you don't have to drown yourself with too much information and rely on that when betting.

It's okay to have a lot of information but only take what you can and what you think is useful for you when making a decision on sports betting.

Of course getting more information about the team we will choose will increase the chances that our choice is correct but I believe it cant increase our odds of winning bet. I dont think we should make it too much of a hassle because this gambling should be meant for fun. If we gamble for winning and money then I think we will get used to looking for the best way to achieve it and quite often this will overwhelm us when choosing which one to choose.

For me one of the greatest factor of for a team to win is through their previous games. Watch more games specially on the game of your favorite one, that one that you are more willing to gamble your money. Get information about the health status of the players and also for the coach as he is the one who makes strategies. Second is the home court advantage, ofcourse because they are much familiar into it than the away team.

Knowing more than the odds of who is going to win is essential, but it's not guarantee you anything. You are more likely to win with educated bet than just basing your bet to the odds of the team. Let me give an example, let's say you're not a fan of NBA or you're not watching NBA at all but you trip to bet between two teams, uhmm let's say Lakers vs Golden State Warriors, now you're not aware of the player on the ground that is playing on that game, say lakers got their starting 5 completely, warriors got Klay and Iguodala injured but there's Curry so the odds would not be that far. Who you between these 2 team? if you're wary of what's happening most likely you'll bet on the Lakers with Lebron and Davis duo plus green? and dwight? you'll probably know what's gonna happen next.

It is always good and fun to have a lot of knowledge. You can take advantage of it when betting on matches. The problem remains of course that you depend on the performance of a player or team, and based on statistics and probability calculations you will always lose in the long run, because the house always has an advantage. I think it is especially important to have discipline and to keep using it.

Collecting information on each team/player side can result into knowledge that can help you to raise your confidence in betting, Also you can see thru your analysis the odds of the result of both teams. It's always better to have confidence on your better than picking at random and most likely doing blind bets.

Sports betting requires such research cause each game/season things happen on player and team, It won't be the same as last season or game. There are no good better that only rely on a random pick. I understand what it feels that is suffocating from information and being confused because of it. 

I cant blame you off if you do really think up this way because this is gambling and we know that all things can happen in an instant or would oppose into your analysis no matter how good it is.

It wont be called gambling or betting if theres no risk involved.If people would just simply go for bet on favorite teams or players for them to win then that wont be challenging or wont really be
called as gambling at all.

Knowledge is important and i cant really say for being too much because it is much better compared if you do just bet blindly or without any analysis or basis.
If you do find out that you are researching up too much then it doesnt matter yet this is always been the fun part.

First of all I want to mention that I used to have great knowledge in sports (not recently because don't have any free time for that). Every statistics is very important because you predict the future and you can more accurately predict it when you know the history, that includes: Which team needs win the most, in what conditions are each team? How did transfers affect to each club? Did star players made club better or still can't they rise? What are the scores in recent matches? Is this game important for certain club? Do they need to be more rested for upcoming match? And this goes endlessly.

But overthinking always kills everything so just don't overthink but consider a lot of things.

Sports betting differs from regular gambling in that if you are well versed in the sports you bet on, follow the news and athletes, then your chances of winning increase significantly.
Therefore, it makes sense to spend time and do it. It would also be nice if you liked this sport, then it will be much easier to learn everything.

All the information that you mentioned is mostly noise, and it is already included in the calculation of the coefficient. Surely there are basic criteria that should be guided by when making a decision, little things will only distract.
In addition, if the bookmakers did not know how to correctly count the odds, they would have gone bankrupt long ago and closed.

You are right and thats part of the plan or game for this industry.Stick with the basic criteria but dont expect that would really be precise. Bookmakers arent really that dumb on making out odds that would be always favorable for them.
Too much knowledge they say?  This would be considered if the said information is out of the scope that should really be studied. Its not really that needed and that would really be just making some confusion.
When betting then just follow on what you had in mind or into those things that had researched but never ever over do it.

I used to think the more information you have the better but it's not always the case because there will be times where the underdog comes out on top and that information you have becomes useless or more of a sugarcoat. This usually happens on sports that always go either way no matter how good the favorites are. For me it's baseball, hockey and tennis so I always avoid these sports or put less money when i'm going to bet on them.

In sports betting the key to success is having the knowledge and latest information, without these two things only luck can be dependable.
It has often happened when I do soccer betting, especially when the big team is against the small team, of course with the knowledge that
we have will choose to bet on the big team. Then when the big team faces the big team again, pay attention to the line up who will play it
also affects the result of the match. This proves that having knowledge is an advantage, regarding the importance of information, for example
the Barcelona vs Bayern match in the quarter finals Champions League, I have information that Barcelona is having internal problems. This
affects the result of the match and it turns out to be true, Barcelona had to lose 2-8 to Bayern.

Okay, but what do you think is better: reading up and feeling hopeful or making blind bets and being calmer about expectations?
If one is supposed to follow the hunch is sports betting, then it is not much of a skill-based activity, and a person cannot improve performance if one's hunch is not doing well. As for copy betting, I believe there's an even simpler choice: betting on the one who is more likely to win according to the odds.

From other replies I can see that some people believe there is never too much to know, and the more a person learns prior to placing a bet, the better. At the same time, some point out that the odds already take into account all this research, but it that case it would mean that reading up or knowing about the games and teams does not matter at all and one should simply bet in the likeliest winner. If this were so easy, however, lots of people would be successful sports bettors, but that is not the case.

The thing is most of the times when you are engaging in sports Betting and you are really good at it, you do know each and every player , you literally stalk them , the team , the coach , what they are going through , the allegations .

That's a lot of hardwork literally.

I don't think any knowledge can be termed overwhelming until and unless you are getting affected by it. Contrary to popular belief I do think the more you know the better , but at the same time you have to remember that *It's a bet* , it can play out according to you and it cannot.

First we have to look into the basics:

Know your team
Know your players

That would be the very basic strategy , if someone is going to ask you to go Messi vs Ronaldo , most people would be very frizzy about the decision , what you need to do is to actually see how their game is going through this season..

So I don't really think it's much to think about , just try , get updated with each and everything that's going on in the sports industry itself.

Experience will teach you how to win in sports betting.

First, you need to change your mindset and don't think sports betting will give you success overnight, long term goal is necessary if you are serious with it.
Once you are serious, you know you'll not play around but you'll ensure you have a good bankroll so you can do it for long term.

Bankroll management is one of the most important factor to consider, it's correct that you have to know the game, their stats and etc, but that is not all, it's just basic, identifying the line (normal or abnormal) or its movement would also help, sometimes line can be very attractive and that would make you get excited to bet on the better team but it was just a trap, most of the time.

Be clever and you'll learn that from your experience, just think of this, if sports bookies are winning, that means lots of bettors are losing, so the method which is "to be against the public", should work on you.

This is the type of game where gamblers lose a lot of money. It's easy to gamble especially for the sports fans as they think they know how to win easily, that's why this industry grows into a billion dollar industry, not included the crypto sports betting industry or casino.

Winning is not easy as we think, we need to become consistent for us to be profitable and the question is always how?

The answer is simple, experience at your own and see it for yourself, you'll know if you are born a winner or not, and in reality, there are only few who are successful in sports betting though many people are claiming they are successful.

LOL me too!
When I bet for a small amount of money (fun bet), I pick my bet blindly just like you did.
When I have more money to bet, I need to know the lineup prediction, last 5 matches, and more.
But still, there's no difference.

Oh sometimes I tricked my luck, I pick the opposite side. got it?  ;D ;D ;D
Really, I can't bet for living. It's just for fun.

There's only one way you can stop from betting blindly, and that is by putting a huge amount, something that would thrill you up but you can afford to lose as well. Difference will be felt if you bet bigger amount as that would make you seriously treat your bet and you'll exert and effort to analyze the game before putting a bet.

Line up, previous games, injury reports and other related news that could affect the outcome of the game is very important, be sure to keep yourself updated from a reliable source so it will help you in making good decision.

Later you will get used to how the betting strategy in the sports arena, especially football, what you do early on in the "blind" all of that later you will understand, if you continue to bet.

Just like me at the beginning of betting on sports gambling, in my mind I kept asking, why didn't I win as I wanted.

What is very important, if you want to bet on soccer gambling, what you need to understand is: understanding that sports betting can not only place bets against the team and the players, there are many things you have to consider.
Example: weather and field, due diligence, injuries and also several other aspects when placing bets.

You will later get used to and know how to bet to determine yourself to win.

It seems to me a completely rational solution, for beginners, to create a demo account. Demo bankroll with which you can try your hand and make all possible mistakes without losing money. The bets are very tempting and it can be difficult to stick to a bankroll when you are 100% sure you will win, but this is the kind of thing people lose all their money on.

I would consider sports gambling is similar to investing/trading any altcoin or stocks TBH. Educated bet will most likely gain you some profits for sure and on rare moments you might get a loss. For instance consider in the case of trading an altcoin, in this case many of us will be investing or trading the altcoin or stocks of a company only after completely knowing about the coin, its potential, its development etc and if you really don't do any of these and invest in altcoins or stocks you might be really facing a huge loss.

But there are a few cases where will be losing our money even after investing in a really good coin where the company has faced a hardship during various situations or developer running away after understanding he cannot carry over the remains of the company in a successful way. This has happened in many of the ICOs which started during the crypto bubble of 2017. Almost 95% of the investors in crypto never got to know about anything and just jumped into it to make money through trading. There were various altcoins which had the potential and raised significant money during the bull run and closed down its operation in 2019/2020 and running away with a exit scam.

We can exactly compare this with sports gambling where we will be learning everything about the game (like weather, home ground pitch, players playing in the field) before placing a bet but still lose when the player fails to give their best during the game. This isn't dependent on us and if we tend to take a loss here, then we can say our luck didn't work out really well. But on the other hand, if you don't do any of these researches and still bet on a player or game without knowing anything then you should definitely be accepting the huge loss or the higher profits. If you are betting on a game, I would suggest that we should be doing some really good research (this is my honest opinion). Only gamble if you are really sure about the game (this isn't a dice game for you to try the luck!)

Cant be helped and cant really be avoided since we are just human beings which do normally react into things and do made out certain action depending on what we do saw on the current situation.
You would normally had that thing in mind on going all in if you do know that you are sure into that certain bet but we know that its risky since it can blow out your entire bankroll balance in an instant
and theres no chance for some recovery or breaking even once you lost that bet.This is gambling and its just normal to have that kind of behavior but supposedly it should be needed to be suppress or need to
be control because honestly this one will really lead into serious loss in terms of financial.When it comes to knowledge then it isnt bad on having that over analyzed one but it does really remove out the
true essence of enjoying the game.

That information that you thought "maybe" won't be useful or might bring changes for making a decision is also the one you need to increase your winning of chances. Knowledge about the game is really essential even the game is unpredictable.

Blinding only looking at the odds can wreck your funds in the long-run.

I understand that you are still experimenting with how sports betting was done. Actually, this concern for yours is easy and simple to understand once you have become an experienced sports bettor. Just continue experimenting with caution.

i like it when beginners start on this way because there are beginners that think they are already pro and will jump on the real betting  .  im not saying that they can loose but its better if we dont skip the learning process .

it happens to me many times  . i knew it that i can win more but i miss the chance and choose to stay on my safe side of betting  , i still earn something anyway . now , i forget being tempted because that can be a trap to make you a greedy gambler .

With experience, you will know what factors have the weight on every match. Sports betting requires tons of knowledge about that game and you will really drown from all those information if you don't know how to filter which one needs to go. Just by staring the odds will not really help as I have done it also many times. Unless, you will do your own analysis, you have better chance of winning.

Disagree with your experiment thoughts here but since it's experimental and you are new to sports betting, your own view

I'd rather like to receive overwhelming information as much as possible. Not an assurance that I will win but every information I need will increase my chance of winning. Example in basketball and I think I mentioned this on your previous thread, injury update, key players, homecourt advantage (not for now because of a pandemic) and status of players, team, etc. - these are key elements to help me make decisions.

Now for betting, now depends on odds if that is worth to take a bet. As much as possible, will only choose odds in a range of @1.6 above.

---

Right.

You will be soon used to this and these issue of yours will properly deal with so just proceed.

Too much of anything is not good. I think you really dug in too much detail on your forecast. Instead of going through each player of the team, just make your analysis on the team as a whole. Sometimes looking for too much detail and considering is a waste of time and could led to frustrations. Even with sufficient knowledge in sports anything can happen within a game. As said, if you have been betting for a long tike, experience will teach you even without assessing a lot of information to make your bet.

There will depend on yourself on how you can collect every information that you can found.
You can search for any information as you can because that can help you to know which team can have the potential to win.
Besides that, with a lot of information that you can get, you can make an analysis that can determine if your data is good or not.
If your information is not good, you can not win the games. But if your data is good, you will have the chance to win.
But sometimes, you can select the right team based on your experience, so you don't need to search for many data to win.

I thought there are people providing this service for sports-bettors just as some cryptocurrency traders sometimes depend on market research provided by other services (paid/free) to trade on fundamental analysis.
I guess such service (especially the specialized/dedicated ones) should also exist for sports-betting, assuming it doesn't exist already

Well yeah, focusing too much on the information can drown you and you won't be able to enjoy gambling that's why I mentioned, only take what you can since the information can also help sports bettor in making a decision. Although it does not give assurance that we can win when we have enough knowledge about the game, it's still good to be familiar with it. We can also gain knowledge with experience, not just by researching so I think it won't be that overwhelming.

Gambling is not all about luck, the odds can be higher in the extent of your knowledge and your skills. Gaining information about sports betting is important, for me it is not good if you will just rely on the odds given by a specific sports betting website. Remember that the favorite team is not always winning so there are times that the underdog is also winning. A good bettor have a foundation in terms of sports betting, skill and information is required. Like for example, I'm a basketball player and I usually bet in NBA games especially today because the playoffs is now on. Luck is also important but do not rely on it because you do not know when your luck will expire. Stay committed on getting more information in order for you to adapt certain changes especially when it comes to sports betting.

I don't think betting randomly on sports games will be profitable!! However, if you have correct knowledge about clubs and players, you will know where to place your bet. Sometimes our expectations do not work despite the knowledge we have regarding club performance! Because luck was not on our side and the club we bet on.  :-\

Knowledge is important while placing the best and with some added luck with it helps in making it big in sports betting. Knowing about gam and players obviously helps you to identify the picks and accordingly you will place the bets rather than placing it randomly and on top of it if you have luck then in the end even if there is no chance of winning that match something happens in the end your teams may win it and you also win it.

If you place a bet in a sports betting without proper knowledge and information about the game then you will have a 50-50 chances in terms of losing and winning. I saw a lot of posts where a lot of gamblers are losing because they keep following the tips and prediction of the other people. Don't get me wrong because there is no wrong on tips and prediction but do not fully rely on it especially if you do not know what you are doing. Bet in a sports gambling that you have knowledge in order for you to have a high chances of winning.

Not having the correct knowledge about the games you're betting on could still be profitable imo. I used to make live bets on esports and take advantage of the odds swing whenever the underdog gains an early lead. It doesn't always happen but it's possible to catch these scenarios from time to time the only thing I don't like with this strategy is that it's very time consuming and you need to be quick as the odds could change every few seconds. 

There’s no over knowledge or too much knowledge that can lead you to a loss, sports betting can also be a game of luck despite of having the right information, so for me it should be knowledge together with your luck and the luck of the team. The odds might be low, but they can still change the game but this case is very rare so if you have enough information with the sports and the team, you can win more what you loss.

You have a point there but that depends on how far the level of experience of being a sports bettor.

In the case of OP's question, that kind of approach is not recommended for a newbie sports bettor like him.

Playing with the odds in a live bet is risky even for a gambler that knows the game, so just imagine how more it is for newbie ones.

IMHO, the rule is that the more knowledge you have, you are doing it correctly. Unlike the other bettors that don't think of this, it's a good question that you have asked this because you are worrying what if you lack of the right information.

The simple rule of thumb could be applied, as long as the knowledge you are getting from teams to players and other important matters, extract the helpful and ignore those that are not.

Sometimes we think it's easy to win but it's not, odds maker providing us the odds whether it's a live bet or not always analyze it well and whether we like it or not, they are smart than most of the gamblers, that's why we make wrong prediction most of the time.

It wont be called gambling in the first place if it doesnt require luck.It might really be focusing that much into skills and knowledge towards the game but you do still need some mix of luck for you to win.

Everything isnt guaranteed when it comes to betting yet we know that situations or circumstances can really turn upside down unexpectedly.Betting on favorites is the casual stuff but there are people whom do really
likes to bet on underdogs specially if they do saw the chances of winning excluding to those die hard fans that doesnt look out on probabilities as long they do make bets into their desired or idolized team.

But there are people who do make research which arent already irrelevant for you to search or learn for and thats what op is trying to ask out about over acquired or searched up information.

Im not saying it is bad but you would really be missing out the fun part when you do already get stressed into those analysis that you had piled of.

But that could be learned right? Perhaps, it just needs time since they need to be good at the subject, probability and statistics in order to come up with a strong odds that will be implemented by the platform developers such as programmers and web engineers. But most of the gambling sites of today shows that they are provably fair, meaning, they often include the source code on how outcomes are generated and that gamblers could verify their bets. It is just that, the secret to house wins relies not in output generation but in the game's mechanism itself.

Ofcourse.
Unless they are depending on sports-bettors who already have the knowledge, skills,etc, I don't see how people without talent/skill/knowledge will do well or earn consistently/sustainably in sports-betting. It's possible to get lucky all the time ... I believe it's only through divine aid though

Of course, that's why there are successful sports bettors, but like I said, only few are winning.


It's not like a casino where you need to beat the house to win, this sports book are only facilitating bets that's why there's a commission on the winning them, there's not system to adjust or whatsoever, it's the odds market that are providing them the betting odds and they displayed that in their website.

Betting randomly on sports games will not give us a big chance to win because we don't know which teams or players who have the big opportunity to win.
We can lose our money anytime by randomly choosing, so it is better if we don't gamble if we don't know what team can win.
Depend on the sports bettors will not be a good idea if we don't know how good his skills in sports betting, and we might still lose the money if we follow them.
You need to search for the information from anywhere you can, so you can have the data that can be used to choosing the teams or the players.

betting randomly is only good to do for fun or if you have a spare coin and you decided to try your luck on sport betting game  . this is me because i have zero knowledge on sports but somtimes i also copy the bet slip of other players if i feel something on it .  you are not expecting to win this way but who knows  ?  

for those who are veteran sports bettors they can pick teams easily with or without a research but they can do well with a research of course  .

Doing that wouldn't give you fun to be honest.

You'll only experience the fun once you love what you are doing and you are challenge, because you will try to analyze games before putting your bet.
That means you are not blindly picking a team since you use your intelligence to analyze the data that you have before you pull the trigger.


Veterans does not mean winners, some veterans in sports still lose, and there's no such thing as easy pick because we have to carefully analyze the game and find the value so we have a better chance of winning. Someday, you'll understand it if you learn from your experience, but start learning sports betting first.

I dont about how others bet, but analyzing everything seems to me like an overkill. People like that are seriously making money, and made gambling as an online source of income, probably.
But for me, my strategy is simple know the game, teams, and players. Odds is not 100% accurate to predict the winner. I sometimes, even go by instinct and just put money on team that looks strong especially when their in a winstreak.

This is why if you want to win any money by betting in sports you need to become an expert on the sport in which you like to bet and for the most part that means being an expert on the sport itself, so anyone that is looking just to make a few dollars in a quick way is going to be deeply disappointed because this is not how it works, if you are a very passionate fan of a particular sport then you may have a chance to become successful in sport betting, if you don't you should not even bother.

Yes you're right, unlike casino gambling games, when a sport team (or a single player) is in a winning streak, the chances to win the next contest increase.

I can say that you do still have chances to win even if you do bet on other sports as well neither it had been suggested out for you to do so or simply just making out random bets
yet to know that there would be only have that 2 results in regards to your bet which means it would be always on 50% chance. Even you dont know the game that much then
you do still have the chance on winning but wont really be the same to those people who do really had their knowledge towards the game and also when it comes to fun
part then i dont see for it to be entertaining or enjoyable on betting to those games you arent familiar with.

Choosing a team with a winning streak will help win the bet and must be helped by your conscience to convince it, and besides that you also have to have accurate knowledge and information about the players, strategies and players who will play or other things and to make sure your choice is right.

Thats why sportsbetting is only for those who really love the game they will be betting for because this needs knowledge about everything from players,teams and their performance to each others when they played.
though there are some called Beginners luck yet this will not long and losses will face you then.
never Bet in any sportsbet that you don't have idea so better study first and take time,never rush and never bet too much at first,start with smaller bets and sooner you will grow,But also always have self control if you don't wanna lose everything.

Before we gamble, we need to have a reason, which is we don't think about the win and the loss. We only want to enjoy the games using some money, and we will stop gambling once we almost run off all the money.
But in sports betting, when you place a bet, that means you want to see your team can be the winner so that you can win some money too.
And if you only want to do that for fun, you can randomly choose the team without much knowledge about each team.
Sometimes, the veteran sports need to search for more data since the game will have a surprise in every match.

Agreed..  Assuming by random bets you mean betting without the necessary skills, knowledge, talents etc... Or depending just on luck.
I would probably research and bet occasionally, if I ever go into sports-bettings

I think you're just overthinking here.

Sportsbetting might be that something where analysis really comes handy, obviously knowledge too but when that happens, I guess you better stick to what you wanted. You can't ensure a win since, at the end of the day, we are still gambling. I think you should not be asking about that, I think you should ask yourself whether you need yourself to rest on betting for a while or not.

Sports betting is about luck. But analysis of various circumstances and conditions would make your probability better. Head to head statistics and analysis only would not be enough as there are other factors that may affect the game. Betting without analysis would just be a dice game. Favor and bias are the next big thing that hurts your chances on sports betting.

Luck is not for beginners only, and it can last more than people generally think.
Someone winning at a gambling game where he had only 1/1000 chances to win has exactly the same luck as someone winning 10 times in a row at a game with 1/2 winning chances. (1/2)¹⁰

I think gaining too much knowledge specially on sports betting is just good and not really a harm for as long as you have all the needed information, you do already have lots of advantages for you are having a basis on making betting decisions on the sports you wish to play a bet with. It is better to have more informations on hand rather than lacking for you will just regret not knowing everything about that certain thing. Overflowing informations are just fine for you can manage to eliminate what you think is unnecessary or those that cannot be useful.

The considerations you take are particularly based on the information you have but those can practically be affected somehow by unexpected happenings and having informations on hand can make you be ready if ever such thing happen to make adjustments on that to help you decide on your betting decisions. It is better to gather more than to regret lacking information. Trust the information you have together with guts and observation to have an edge on the bets you will make.

I am with this perspective also. Too much knowledge will be very helpful in sportsbetting. Because that's where your chance of winning will put into good play. The more info you have, the better for your betting strategy. This is why the winning chance in sportsbetting is higher than luck-based games because as a bettor, you have the advantage if you know the game by heart.

Sports betting is a game that requires knowledge and luck, without both it is difficult to succeed in sports betting.
Sometimes we already have the necessary knowledge, unexpectedly a weak team that should lose turns out to be
lucky to win against a strong team. This often happens in sports betting, therefore having knowledge in sports betting
does not become winner. In sports betting, there are often many surprises, which make sports betting even more
interesting.

I didn't say it was easy to win I only wanted to point out that there are strategies where you don't need much information. I know the odds maker are smart and ahead of us but you can still make things work regardless of what they offer to us. If you actively bet or monitor the live odds sometimes you'll notice how they react heavily on small advantages that could still go both ways.

So you are talking of live betting here? Based on my experience, I have more success betting on live than betting on before the game. I think this is good if we have enough time and if we really want to improve our skills in sports betting, then maybe it's just right to invest our time watching live games and betting live.

Unfortunately the method you are doing is very difficult for other people to do because maybe there are still some people who have tried it but it is not suitable and failed, maybe there are still other ways to gamble safely, and of course you must be aware that the risks of playing games are in place. gambling will be like that.

How is it difficult if you are a gambler and you also watch the game you are betting?
If you can play poker online, or dice where you have to play your game and watch that bet at the same time, I guess it's also possible with sports betting.

Interesting. I think live betting sounds better. That would be good for gaining more information about the teams before placing your bet. But I wonder how the sport-betting works... Is it a continuous thing until the end of the match or there are particular time betting centers/sites stop accepting bets? If betting is continuous, why would people still bet before the match? I assume that watching a match before betting will giving bettors (who can analyze things) better advantage?

yeah I know, picking a bet with a small amount of money is just like trading with a demo account right?
but as I state before (for me) it just like there's no difference between betting blindly or doing a well analyzed bet.
simply, I am not a good bettor lol.

It is not the same because when you bet with a small amount of money if you lose, you still lose that money.
But if you use a demo account in trading, even if you lose bigger money, the money does not belong to you because the exchange gives it to you by free. There is a difference between both.
It is better to use a small amount of money to place the bets, even if you do not yet understand how to play with them.
Well, I am not a good bettor too because I am not too often to watch the sports match before and now.

I also think the same, this idea of having too much knowledge when it comes to sports betting doesn't really make a lot of sense, unless you are a successful sports bettor and you already have a system that can generate profits and that you have tested over many years and the more information that you add doesn't seem to improve your profits at all, only someone that was passing through something like that could say that too much information is not really helping him, but if you are not earning money through sport betting then you need more information that is for sure.

No knowledge is too much until you know the limits on spending. People always prefer risk to earn, by the time gamblers should also know that gambling isn't all about luck. If one goes into gambling completely depending on luck, then there is more chance of ending up with loss than winning. To be good with sports betting, all that necessary were knowledge about the match and the possible chances of winning.

I think that one needs to have a system for approaching sports betting. First of all there is a difference between a casual bettor or a professional. A casual bettor shouldn't do more intensive research than studying the last few matches aka the dorm of the team and maybe watch a few matches and know the players and the rankings.

A professional would hunt for odds and try to lock-up a spread Or forum sophisticated programs that pulls the data for each match and provides probabilities that serve as a base for his betting decisions.

Any information that would circulate or would come out would neither be helpful or just trash thats why its still important for it to be analyze it first neither you would take it or would just ignore it.When it comes on watching matches then betting is more enjoyable when you do watch the games where you do bet yet you can feel out the thrill when your team is winning or lossing and thats the true essence when you are really make out bets
for you to be entertained but well each gambler is different because not all betting on a specific game does really need for you to watch.

Choosing a team with a winning streak is just obvious, it would really increase the chance of you winning the bet but we can't always say that we have the right choice since there are some instances that the underdog wins. With a lot of things to consider, you can't always check the whole team and their players. Usually it starts with they have a winning streak and end up with I am betting on their team, sometimes hype could also influence your betting.

I get your point, this is somehow like this phrase "THE MORE YOU KNOW, THE MORE YOU DON'T KNOW", if you fet feed up of lots of information but still not hepful and you just wish to only get thr info needed for you to bet. Well, there isn't as we all know tha sometimes even in broadcast speculations are biased. Sometimes they get paid to market the other team for more betting and then will eventually the game was being set by the parties letting the other team win for today and the next match will be your team. See the NBA play off series as an example. I can't bear to imagine how lakers and bucks which is number 1 seed in rank lose game 1 in their match with the rank 8 seed (last rank) of the NBA series. There is what we called manipulating result to earn. Anyway, this is just my opinion and I could not attest all things I have mention is true.

I am a winning sports bettor and know nothing about sports.

I believe the market is highly efficient and all the available information is accounted for in the odds.

My strategy is to use betting exchanges and I offer whatever current market odds are. So I'm getting +105 on what is effectively a coin flip.

How about setting up a system for this something like a computer analysis software I don't know if there is one available or you can customize one of your own, from there the AI or artificial intelligence software will just compare and analyze each team, or if you cannot afford one just subscribe to various experts and check everyone's analysis and compare it with yours to come out who will be the winner.

If Op wants to pursue betting with precision and he wants to make money out of it, since this is a sports betting which needs an intense analysis he can get one program for sports betting he should study the cost or do feasibility study if it is profitable to set up one but this is what professional sports betting bettors do, because it involves a lot of analysis.

I do agree with your observation that sometimes too much information in your head will make things complicated to who to bet though. Not just in football or soccer, I think the perfect example is horse racing. Wherein there's a lot of variables to look at and sometimes to much information will make things complicated and overwhelming that it will take you more time to analyze that you are somewhat 'force' to bet and even after the match and specially if you lose, you will see where you got your analysis wrong or what went right. I guess for me is that if I really like the odds and see that it has a high chance of winnings, based on your experience and how you see things turning out, then I simply go with it No need to over complicate things.

OP can take this into a money-making hobby is he is serious about it, any endeavour in gambling takes money but if you want to take sports betting seriously you need money and experts advice on how to set up your methods like computer software and associates but if you just want it as something to entertain yourself just subscribe to at least 4 veteran sports betting analysers and compare their analysis.

You need all experts advice you can get if you want to pursue gambling for money or investing in sports betting.
Though it's not impossible to succeed, but this isn't an easy journey, you need proper planning and continues to develop your skills and that requires time so you'll likely experience a lot of loses while aiming for consistency, but if you keep improving and you don't give up, you'll surely get your goal here.

Yes. I only used live betting as an example since you'll often see both teams become an underdog at one point regardless of the opening odds. It can also be done pre live if you're watching one of tykiwanuka's betting thread you'll see him bet on both side if the markets move the opposite direction.

It's difficult to do live because you need to watch the whole game then watch the odds very closely. On top of that you have to follow some proper bankroll management so you don't lose too much if you don't get the right time and odds of both teams.

When it comes to watching live in sports betting, the enjoyment is much better especially if the both teams are in good condition where the scores are near to each other where it create pressure not only in players but also in audiences and gamblers. The excitement is really different especially if you have high bet because you know that your money is on the line. Knowledge is important when it comes to sports betting, it is also need a good analysis wherein you should really know the team and also the players on what they can do in order for you to come up a information about their strength and weaknesses.

In sports betting the more is better because there are a lot of situations where small details can create a big impact in what or who you are betting to, you should ask first if sports betting is for you, because it involves a lot of time and a lot of analysis, have you seen people in the sports team they have their own analysis team so they can come up with the right strategy, so you are betting in sports betting.

It is why we need to search for many news, info, or rumor from many places because that can help us to decide, especially if we don't have any clue to select which team.
I also often watch the matches because, in the middle of the match, I am slept away and did not watch until the match finished.
If we can collect so much info about the match, I am sure that we can have more potential to choose the right team which can give us the chance to win.
But I think if we can win the match, we will try to place another bet in another match ;)

All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, like penny slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart bettors earn their advantage by avoiding them altogether. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may need to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and injuries with the same fervor other connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.

Yes of course, I agree with you but you have to compare with gambling games. When someone is in a winning streak at a gambling game, his odds to win the next game remain the same while if it is at a non random game, his odds change...

Unfortunately, not all people know much about mathematics, which makes them use the chance by using the sense of feeling. They don't have much time to calculate using mathematics, so they use the feeling to place the bets. Sometimes, they analyze the results and place their calculation of what they can, and then, they use it to bet. In sports betting, they analyze the team from what they got from many websites to know which team has a big chance to win. But for experienced gamblers in sports betting, they will use other sources or maybe they will calculate how big their odds to win if they bet on that team.

And the alternative to the Crypto Demo Trading in "Games and Sports Prediction Market" would probably be playing games/sports without betting...or playing without real coins, or playing for non-financial rewards/incentives(I wonder if this even exists).  I guess new bettors who want to learn how to bet could use such alternatives before graduating to betting with real money.

I think at some level, everybody understands the maths behind it and they know in the end, they have to fight a losing battle mathematically,,, but we have luck at the back of our minds that becomes the irrational force behind why we do things in gambling. I know it affects me a lot. Having 0.1 btc bankroll I think, if I martingale 1 satoshi, surely I can last 1 million bets? And I have busted from there because I think the mathematics sides me.

Yes, what you say is right. You can surely stay for a long time with that, but what will happens if suddenly, you win in some rounds and makes you get a nice amount of winning. You can become greedy, and you will change your bets to bigger bets because you will feel that luck is beside you. That is happening in many gambling games which people can win, including in the sports betting. So people will use that chance to play more than before because they expect to make bigger winning.

Having knowledge in gambling games, specifically in sports betting, will be important, as that can help us to analyze to choose the right teams or players. So with mathematic and knowledge, we can increase the odds of winning.

This is an important observation, there are people that dedicate their lives to a certain field of knowledge and for them it is never enough and they learn everything they can so they can keep improving and yet when it comes to sports betting it seems some people think there is some kind of limit that can be reached and from that point learning more about the particular sport in which you like to bet it is a waste of time, but this is simply not true as casinos are always improving the way they calculate odds and if you stay behind them then you will be unable to distinguish when they give good or bad odds in a particular game.

Go for enough knowledge, not too much.

IMO, what's necessary here is that knowledge will help you to win and that you can convert that into skills.
It's useless to be knowledgeable and yet you aren't winning, so learn to win, that should be the goal.

In my experience as a sports betting, I can say that I have enough knowledge already, but is it enough to win, my answer is no. (based on experience only)

Nothing on gambling world can really be considered to be perfect even how knowledgeable you are but somewhat this is much more better rather than having nothing at all.

You would only notice if you are doing it too much when you do come up with analysis which arent already necessary anymore for you to include.

It doesnt matter though as long it doesnt keep you bothered or stressed that much but when you are already having problems or headaches the better always direct to the key points.

In my opinion, sports betting does require good knowledge, because it is different from other types of gambling. Sports betting depends
from the knowledge we have, from there we are able to analyze the sports matches that will take place. Even with knowledge which is good,
still the winning percentage is still around 50%. Because you still need luck to win in sports betting.

It makes sense to have a information and making a bet based on the gained information but the public information is not enough to make a 100% right bets. My friend even has the inside information about who will participate on the match before event and he thinks to bet on this information by taking over 2.5 goal selection. With famous person's invitation, players will be tempted to score more goals and this was edge of my friend. Personally I prefer to make random betting decisions with checking live soccer statistics. Much better than blindly losing money on random bets.

The other games are luck based type of games, simple knowledge is enough, you need an extreme luck to win most of the time, which I think not going to happen if you are constantly gambling as the house will definitely eat your bankroll.



If 50% winning chance only, that would not help us, or if we break even because we already lose the time and effort we spent, we need more than that to win, winning does not only mean by the way we choose our bets, also, discipline like proper bankroll management is necessary.

In real life happening knowledge is power, when it comes to gambling luck is power. With sports betting with knowledge we can have all the data associated with the particular game in our finger tips, but if there is no luck then all the information gathered were useless.

With sports betting, the knowledge help in increasing the winning chance selecting the right odds whereas the luck confirm the winning.

The clustering of luck with gambling is always been there but, there are certain measurements and situations that you won't be on it with 100% all the time. The information being disseminated could depend if you think it's reliable or it's already too much for you to take it because you're aware of it already or you know that it's not accurate and it won't help you. Determining those things can easily be figured out if you are too detailed with the information or knowledge that's being suggested to you.

I guess our knowledge can never be enough. Gaining "sufficient" knowledge about a football team alone will require lots of deep information concerning the team. You'll need to see most/all their trainings, know what they eat, how healthy they are individually, what the weather will be during their future match, how they react to different weather individually, etc. This will requires lots and lots of information/data. I think there could be businesses that specialize on gathering such information for bettors.
 It'd be hard for bettors to know most of this things by themselves.

That's so much work to do, you would do this if you are betting a big amount or you are going to make a living in sports betting, when in most cases people fail. As for me, I think I would just rely on my experience, sometimes, even without looking at the stats, I can predict which team would win based on the line movement alone.

well, this isn't really about how much knowledge is too much but it about how the person will handle the information he/she has and decide which odd will come out since different person handles can handle different amounts of information without doubting or overthinking their decision. some can handle more and some can handle less.

selective information might help. I mean only learn or search what you want to learn and ignore the ones you consider trivial or unhelpful. but to be honest, in my opinion, the more knowledge you have is better.

People do have their own way.Some would really make these complicated or too much information gathering and some does only rely with line movement or just seeing their overall stats basing of
the winning and losing rate.

When you do tend to bet big amounts then its not something surprising that you would really make up some research which is really beyond on what others is doing.It might really be sounding too exaggerated to be done
but these infos can really be helpful on making such decision.

and i do agree on the saying that too much of them will really just confuse you out specially trying to compare both teams from the smallest or slightest details that you have gathered.
It all varies or depend though as long it does work which is the most important of all.

The more knowledge you have is better, you can use that trivial and unhelpful info to vouch for other information that will help you. Well, not all of the information is helpful but for sure you will use it on other situations. But in the article that I've read, having knowledge of the game is not an advantage for us to win in gambling.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130319124229.htm

This article really fits on the discussion and I hope you guys read it. It says that the sports gamblers are good at making illusions, thinking that they can manipulate the outcome. It's a study that uses sports gamblers and sports fans as participants. Therefore, even if you have knowledge or not, you can't easily predict the outcome and knowledge about the game won't help you to win on sports bettings.

More knowledge is never a bad thing.

The more you learn about something, you'll open your eyes to the new possibilities that other people fail to see.

If you don't want to deal with information, statistics etc... dice is your thing.

What I believe is quite opposite, it is a bad thing when you know a lot of things, as you said it will be open for possibilities, countless of possibilities and that also mean that there is a lot going to your mind. Let's say you know a lot in statistics, you will always think of the highest possible outcome and will tend to forget the other side, that's what I notice when I played too competitive, there's a lot going to my mind that I can't see the things in my front anymore, I usually overlook easy things and I always make it complicated.

50/50 chance of winning is better, I can say.

It depends on how you do managed those informations that you had gathered or known.If you do let yourself shuffling things up then you would really end up on having those countless of possibilities
which will surely get you confused and wont able to make the right decision in the end.
Having more knowledge is good rather than having less at all.It might be have some cons but it do outweighs by its advantage and this is why there are people who do have better chances of winning
due for having lots of knowledge on a certain sport or into this sports betting.

That means you area really analyzing things, an average gambler would go for an "easy things" and that's what the oddsmaker are looking, they will create a betting line that the general public would attractive in betting that line, and that make them lose because it's just a trap.

Make things complicated but still stay consistent, that would be a good recipe for success.



Can't have that in dice due to house edge, sports betting has none, so if you believe in 50/50 chances, that's a real thing.

Tldr;

If you are lazy > play dice because it doesn't require you to do your own research. It is only based on your luck. You just need to find a trusted casino with a low house edge.

If you are a data scientist, bet on sports.  8)

I can see that there are still gamblers who research on how to win in dice, they even make their own betting script.. that was me when I was new, I'm curious in every betting method until I gave up as I have not proven that there's a working method to win in dice, but only luck, however, we can't be too serious with dice since luck is not consistent and no one can beat the house edge.


That's me betting on sports, but I think I'm not a successful scientist though.

It's not a question of more or less it's a question of how passionate you are in your endeavor, do you want to take this because you want to make money or do you want to take this because it's your passion if you are at it for money chances are you are going to question if you are learning or want to add more to what you are taking in if it's your passion it doesn't matter how much are you taking in, in fact even if you already have more you still want more information, because it's your passion, it's what you do best in your life.

I also fail to understand why people still do that but then I was doing that too before I understood how it is impossible to win against the house edge in the long run.

I guess it is all a part of their learning process before they hit their "Aha!" moment.

Your biggest chance to win against the house edge is when you wager all your money at once and bet on one game. For example if you have 1000coins and play a x2 game where your chances of winning is let's say %48, you may fool the mathematics for only once (or maybe twice but the more you play... read below) and not get hit by that %2 because your chances of winning is even though not 50%, it is very close to 50%

When you start spending all your coins 1 by 1 and play a thousand games, it is a different story. Then it is more likely that you'll lose 52% of the total games you played which will bankrupt you.

That's how online casinos survive. They limit the player's max bet amount so they don't take big hits and they use house edge so in the long run it is guaranteed wins for the casino.

There is no "limit" or anything knows as "too much" knowledge. Sports better depends little on luck, but more on information you gather. For example, if a weak team plays against a strong team, you are pretty much sure which team is going to win because of that knowledge and this is also how odds are set. Betting on weak team gives you higher payout when they win. The more knowledge you gain about a team, the better the chance of you predicting the winning team!

Not sure if you count esports into sports but I was doing a lot of betting in CSGO during 2018 and the beginning of 2019. I was reading all the news that I could find, searching forums and on twitch streams for potential news of roaster changes and tried to predict most of the major tournaments. In the end I was not doing bad but I am not sure if it was really worth it. Most of the time the favourites just tended to win and teams with a long track record and good roaster just tended to always do good. In terms of time spend on research and the reward I am not sure it really paid off. With less knowledge I would have probably made similar calls and might even had taken more risks because I didn't know and better. So there might be really the chance of just knowing too much.

that's understandable since, in the end, the bettor's decision where to put his/bet is still a speculation with no guarantee of it hapenning. I wonder what odds the participants of the study bet on. I tried clicking the story source on the article to but I am getting site can't be reached. anyway, it was a nice article to read.

The more the better but I think you should still weigh in on everything, its better to have more knowledge cause it will help you in some of the games, but there will also be the time where you should unlearn all the knowledge. What I mean is using your gut feeling for example. Sometimes relying too much on knowledge will make you lose too.

Isn't that a characteristic of gambling? You can gain knowledge about it but you can't really tell what will happen 100%.

So if you see something or feel something that can affect your decision making, then you'll adjust according to the situation. It will be always up to you. In my opinion, some gamblers are good cause they know how to juggle the knowledge they have, they won't feel overloaded cause they already know what knowledge is useful at the very moment and what are not.

Exactly. Knowledge is the a vital weapon in sports betting, or gambling in general.
Knowledge about the game and team are substantial in determining which team to bet on.
And if a situation challenges you, you will know what strategies to use because of your knowledge.

That's true. And there were some cases with people putting a fortune on a single bet (like, on 'red' on a roulette) and doubling it just like that. But there are many reasons why people don't do that.
1. A big amount means a big risk. If you lose one small bet, it's no big deal, but if you take all the money you intended to ever spend on gambling and lose, you'll be devastated.
2. If it's just one bet, it's not gambling as an activity. You don't spend much time doing it, you don't feel thrilled regularly, and you are not going to be able to try to win what you lost.
3. I'm sure some still think that the more you play, the better you become at it, so putting more effort into the future win sounds fair.
4. Winning once is certainly possible, but that's not what people are usually after. They want to earn money, so it's about regularly winning. And one bet just crosses out this possibility altogether.

this is my third day to bet blindly.
using "draw" and "not a draw" strategy for a match which has score 0-0 in the first half.
reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5264695.0

I already got 50% profit from my initial money.
I will try it for a week, if this strategy really works that way, I will try to bet more money.
 ;D

It's almost endless studying of the subject, I did mention that it goes with the passion that is why sports analysis spends hours to just come out with a good analysis not questioning if he has enough, because every small detail must not be left behind because there are many situations that will arise when we are playing or betting on it.

I think knowing the basic information about what are you betting at is really important factor for winning.

Making an educated bet and just blindly betting has its edges. When you’re making an educated bet, you’re going to be more confident because you’ve researched the background of the game, players, etc. There will be a higher probability of winning when you know who’s side is more capable to win.

While in making blind bet, you’re just making a wild guess with no background knowledge in mind. You’re just relying on your gut feel and intuition to win. Therefore, making it a 50/50. It’s not that bad if you’re just betting a small amount and for entertainment purposes. You wouldn’t bother to spend time knowing the whatnots.

I suggest you continue what suits your preferences and use different techniques to win and to don't have regrets whenever you gamble.

That's completely correct, they know what they are doing and before they operate, they already determine their edge and part of that is limiting the max bet, so with that said, martingale is impossible to work against them.

I think this is true if referees would just do their job competely correct and not impact the games.As long as this is and has always been the case in sport betting this kind of strategy will not work at all.Let’s suppose you have been collecting data all week before the weekend game and you know that the team you are betting against will miss let’s say 4-5 important players and you also know this team is weaker on paper and lower on the standings and you bet sure that they will lose and you will win the bet.Unfortunately for you in that game the referee starts by giving one penalty in the early minutes of the game to the team you bet against and there was no real foul for a penalty but the referee decided that way.This team scored and then they completely defended the result and you lost your bet.

What I mean is you can’t win relying on information and other data.

Bullshit and nonsense - of course you can win. You give an abstract example. There are always risk factors in life and something can always happen. It is like telling you that you will not get up tomorrow. And what about your plans then..?

I give a pretty solid example which should make people understand it is very difficult to win even if you have done your homework in gambling.

As for doing our homework for our plans usually works out because we are in full control different from the example I gave above.

Blind betting? That strategy in the link you posted doesn't really sound "blind" to me. Afterall strategy/strategies are involved.
Well, I guess you'll have to keep betting for awhile (with little amount ofcourse, or with what you can afford to lose) in order to see how profitable you will be overall.
I may try the betting strategy too if it's really profitable and works. Bookmarked & observing!

It depends on how serious you are if you are a full time sports betting bettor, then there is no such things as to much you will always want more, if you are betting occasionally you will just check and compare your analysis to others and go with your hunch, it comes with passion and how much time you can allocate, but there's no such thing as enough.

Using soccer as an example you must have the knowledge about the teams involved and must have been a follower of a particular league and knowing the strong teams and the weaker ones example in EPL Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Man utd and Arsenal are strong team placing bet against any of those team losing a match to a weak team amount to losing that bet, there are other leagues out too there, these are  some of the skills needed to be acquired in other to avoid betting blindly and losing bets

When it comes to sports betting then theres no doubt that we do really stick out to the best league or teams and thats why sufficient knowledge is really important because you are already fully aware and able to
nitpick on which one you would choose and since you are pretty aware when it comes to statistics then you will surely choose up the best one.

Who would really bet against on a strong team with a good record compared or having a match to a inferior team? If you do then you are just simple making blind bets but somehow there are
really unexpected things do happen where underdogs do able to snatch out a win.It might not be common but theres always a possibility.

Knowledge is everything and i dont see wrong if people do have that too much thing since it wont really be wasted and can really be used up.

As long as the time you spend on sports-betting translates to consistent, sustainable, sufficient finance and productivity. If you spend lots of time on it without being profitable, then you are definitely taking huge risk (gambling).

The more you know the better, that's for sure. Yes, we all have the Internet at hand, so, theoretically, everyone can be informed on the same level. But in practice not everyone has time for a proper research, and many gamblers end up betting on a team/player that has zero chances to win.

Also, when you already decided on what to bet, search for the sites where the outcome odds are better(sometimes they vary significantly). This information can be crucial for successful betting.

Exactly because our experience will make us more matured in picking our bets.
Sometimes what we read in our research does not happen in actual practice, so we also have to consider that and actually it's not hard to learn if we are focus as in time if we keep learning and correcting our mistakes, especially our lack of discipline, that's where we will start winning.

No one know but ourselves when we will be consistent, and when we will stop when we think we already failed.


Of course, go for the sites that offers best betting odds, every percent differences matters especially if you are betting for long term.

This is the thing, different games appeal to different people, those that do not want to spend their time thinking about all the nuances of sports betting can find other games they may like more, however if they have decided they want to try their luck in this particular kind of gambling game then they have no other option but to learn more about the game themselves and about the rules of the casino concerning that game so they can maximize their chances of making money against the house.

I think those who will try this gambling model are people who have a lot of money that is not being used because this is pure luck and cannot be relied on when they need a lot of money so I don't think you dare to enter because the risk is that the money will disappear immediately, more whether to trade on a trusted exchange.

Sorry, can I ask, what model are we talking here?
I tried to look at the post you quoted but I can't seem to find that model, maybe can you explain further so I will get it.

And to South Park, I think what we are discussing here is sports betting and sports betting has no house edge to my knowledge as you are not betting against the site, you are betting against the other bettors, they just facilitate the bet.

Whatever we do and however much knowledge we get, it can't guarantee that we will start winning at some point. With knowledge we can only increase our chances of winning, but we can never be sure not only about constant winning, but even about winning in the long run.


That's true, but still it's not a rocket science, which once you've learned it can provide you with some constant income. We should always keep in mind that gambling is for entertainment purposes only. We shouldn't try to make our living from it.

There's no sure in gambling, that "thing" does not exist, I am just using a word to feel opmistic here as I know a good chance of winning that means we have some consistency that could make us successful in sports betting in the long run.

yeah, no guarantee but I believe it's possible.



There's always an exemption on this for people who exceptional talent.

I think you missed the point. kryptqnick was talking about using too big amounts of information for betting. Since it's very difficult to prioritize informations and to integrate them into a weighted model.

Having so much knowledge about something may not let you think clearer and decide on something. Too much of everything is bad for a person. You will always have second thoughts about your decisions which is bad, the basics is enough for you to have edge on sports betting match.

As long as you educate yourselves with the right information, I think that would help you in choosing the best decision or pick in sports betting. Knowing everything but half of it are trash information, that will make your system overload as our brain is like a hard drive where it can only store limited information, so it's necessary that we don't complicate things as winning is not complicated.

Sports betting is less risky than dice or other provably fair games but in lastly none the less it's gambling.
Full time sports gamblers might have an edge but that edge might be taken by house edge, That edge can be traded with knowledge the gambler has on game and players.

Yeah! in gambling you always have that hunger to make some bets even though you don't have enough to bet on every game you want to play. even at the time of losing it everything, if you have some way to get some money from a debtor you gonna go for it without hesitation because the eagerness to get back what you've lost is still there. However, this kind of attitude or traits should be avoided. because a person who has this kind of thinking will suffer a lot if he can't stop the way he is playing right now.

Betting on dice is depends on luck and knowledge is not required. But if betting on sports teams or player having knowledge leads an advantage to you as you may know the opponents strength and the person or team you are betting and accordingly based on who is strong you can place the bet and chances are that if situation is normal you will win it.

While you make a good point at the same time the next question emerges, which information is useless and which one is useful to determine which teams or players will win the next match? You have no way to know that unless you analyze hundreds of different parameters and by the time to do so then you will be overloaded with information anyway, so anyone that is serious with trying to make money in sport gambling will probably go through that phase and it does not seem like there is nothing to do about it.

Absolutely right, those tons of ideas and information will overload inside you to the point that you'll be distract as there are conflicts
sometimes placing you to wrong directions. Being serious to this field needs you to have good balance.
Overthinking may affects your decision making, better to keep in mind that there's no perfect strategy but there's always luck that
will adds up the thrill.

There is no such thing as too much knowledge when it comes to predicting the outcome of a game.

The more information you know about either team, the better your chances of being able to successfully choose the winner. However, I'd say there is a limit to how much knowledge is beneficial.

For example, you might to know which kinds of hands poker players tend to fold or play, and understand their tells to see if they're bluffing. But it won't help you any further if you know what he had for dinner the night before.

So long as the information is relevant, by all means, accumulate everything you can. Just make sure it's worth the effort accumulating.

e.g. If you're going to put down a $10 bet to win $20, there's no point spending hours researching the game...

Sport betting is kind of prediction game not a strategical one, so all we need to predict the strategy of player/team about the game we are going to bet.Of course it needs luck but in sport betting more analyzing can increase the chance of winning.No one can ever learn everything about the game so nothing is too much to learn.

I can only speak of myself. I know a lot about football/soccer because it is a sport that fascinates me, so I bet 99% of my money on football games and no other sports. I have been consistently profitable for a long time (winning 55-60% of my bets). If I happen to bet on other interesting sports (e.g. recent NFL games), I always have a win rate of less than 50%. So I cannot confirm that knowledge does not make a difference. But to be profitable you also need good money and balance management. So knowledge in combination with good money management is the key to success.

Gambling is really different than just watching the game and enjoying it because this should be treated as a job, you do your research so your chances of winning will increase. With a lot of sports you can be interested with, you can bet them all but you can't focus in all of them and that will affect your chances of winning, so as for me, I just focus on the league that I know the best and that is basketball especially the NBA.

I am winning of course but not all the time, my goal is just to win most of the time and I'll be profitable as long as I will stay discipline with my bankroll management. So everyone, hopefully you also learn how to manage your bankroll as that is one of the most important factors to succeed in sports betting.

Interesting.
I guess this means you a successful bettor.
Well, I think people could actually be successful bettors by betting on things they are interested in or passionate about. I believe the passion will help people to learn easily... they would keep learning, bet, be patient etc. Others are probably attracted mostly by huge bet prizes than the passion for the games

There should be no exceptions, that's my point. Even people with exceptional talent, which helps them to win more often than average gamblers, should seek their main income somewhere else than gambling. Read real life stories of lottery jackpot winners, skillful sports bettors and pro poker players. Most of them lose everything they previously won if they continue gambling. That's why the wisest of them stop gambling at some point and start doing something else. Liv Boeree, a former pro poker player is a good example. After earning $3,800,000  in live tournaments she announced that she will quit professional poker.

For some people, gambling can be treated as a job, but for the other I don't think they will use gambling as a job. My suggestion in sports gambling will be to select the sports you know and familiar with because that can give you a chance to choose the right team to place the bet. Besides that, with collecting more data from many sources, you can have more chance to win on that bet. But you should think about how if the situations changed, so you can make another strategy to win.

Well, you can see it this way, if one has a win rate of > 50% :D I have been profitable in betting in the long run for a while now. In the short term, of course, there can also be a bad phase. From time to time I post my bets in previous, for example my Premier League bets (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5271157.msg55198066#msg55198066) for last weekend where I had four of four bets set correctly*. As I wrote, success in betting is not about luck, its about knowledge and money management.

*Please don't follow my bets. If you do it anyway and lose money, it is your fault.

Knowledge is somewhat an advantage to choose whos probably win but I don't think there is a method to help increase our chances to win. Because for me, I usually considered the odds especially when both players or teams are good, and I notice that the result is just 50/50.

In sports betting, not all of these things will help you out from losing, it surely it got you sometimes. You might win today and you might also lose in the next bet. We all not be a lucky person all the time.

Ofcourse! Almost thesame rate in Crypto trading in order to be considered a successful trader... People would sometimes say it is impossible to be a successful trader, but when you do your learning and research (talent also helps), you discover it's not that difficult to be profitable. So I can relate with the experience. 

* I'm not really that interested in sport-betting yet. I will probably try betting in other areas i won't abandon easily due to unprofitablity or lack of interest.

Yes, I need to add that the win rate alone does not tell much. That's why I stress balance/money management so much to be successfull.

To explain, I take the following example:

Bet A won # Stake 1mBTC # Odds 1.5 # Profit 0.5 mBTC
Bet B won # Stake 1mBTC # Odds 1.3 # Profit 0.3 mBTC
Bet C lost # Stake 1mBTC # Odds 2.1 # Profit -1.0 mBTC

There you have a win rate of 66%. Wow, amazing! But your overall profit is -0.2mBTC.

That's just some of the gamblers, well, let's say they made a good decision to quit but winning in gambling in sports betting where you made a successful journey slowly until you become consistent, I think it's not worth quitting. I also heard some stories that there are people who are still gambling now and successful in sports betting because they treated sports betting as their job.

Winning in lottery is some kind of exemption, that's a pure luck, I'm talking of real talent here where can deliver you consistent successful, not winning all the time but "profit - loses = net profit (+)"... that's computation.  ;D

Having a knowledge when betting it gives also a guides everytime we bet, but we cannot say we can win all the time.  Sports betting is supposed to be for fun but some treated it to make money. There is always needs for luck in order for us to win so somehow the chance of winning when you learn and get data from the team you are placing bets is not hundred percent so indeed that's 50/50 the outcomes.

I think it is okay if we can win for some time in the sports betting, and we can stop to gamble after that 3 times to enjoy the win money. In all of the gambling games supposed to be for fun and not for a source of income, we need to search for other ways to make money. Before we play gambling, the percentage will be 50/50, but after we get inside to the games, the rate can be high or low depending on our knowledge. If we have much information about the games and the teams, we can get a high percentage to win, so that can give us a chance to win.

Not every time but with knowledge you are giving yourself a much better chance.

Choosing the games and the players or teams are much easier if you have a good knowledge with the games that you
are participating, you are also giving yourself much lesser worries unless shits happened and frustrates you up.

I think it would still not work to make you a profitable bettor in the long run.However I agree with you that anything done with passion,done consistently and the person is reading everyday about this subject this greatly enchance the possibilty to be more of a winner than a loser but not always.

I think I understand what you mean:  it is a good decision to quit after some good winnings in luck based games, such as lottery, slots etc., but in skill-based betting, like sports betting, it's better to not quit, because your skills only improve with time. There is a logic behind such a reasoning, but I personally disagree with it. Let me explain. Liv Boeree, from my post above, could also think that it was better to continue playing(luck plays big part in poker, but that part is not greater than that in sports betting), and yet she decided to quit, which I think was the right decision.

With all that being said, no one is insisting on quitting completely. If you love sports betting, you can keep on doing it. You just have to stop treating it as a money-making business.

That's definitely my point, but unlike you, I won't quit, we have different principle in gambling.
If I am making money, why would I stop? This is a skilled based game and I have already seen the result, so why resist to continue making money?

This is another good point and it is something that happens in trading as well, it is very common to find people that actually have winning strategies and yet they are long term losers, and we need to wonder why? And the reason for this is their poor money management skills, you could accurately predict who is going to win or lose a game but if you bet too much money on each single bet a negative streak can be enough to wipe out your account.

Yes, knowledge gives you better chances and self confidence and that is good. In sports betting you can always use your knowledge in good way but unfortunately you can't rely only on that.
With some knowledge you also have the feeling that you risk less but sometimes that can be misleading and that will not help you winning all the time.

Frustrations is always been part of the game yet we know that results or outcomes aren't guaranteed that's why when there are games that we are quite sure that we do win but there are instances
that things do changes up in result to sudden lose instead and that really sucks but its part of the game.

Having knowledge is much more better rather than on playing without any information or doesn't have any idea on what games you've been dealing.Knowledge is required and its not
really that bad for you to have much because it will always be residing on your part to be on that advantageous one.

frustration doesnt come out in the game but we people are creating it . there are people that can control them self and no frustrations coming out from them . at the end of the day , what your playing is gambling so dont act like you do know everything because expectation can lead to frustruations .

  i dont like when i loose and become frustrated at the same time , thats why i try to be chill when gambling and i already expect the unexpected if ever it comes .

Frustrations will become the biggest problem for the gambler who chase the winning. People who lose much money will feel frustrated, and they will be desperate to think about winning the games. If they can't control themselves, the feeling will become bigger, and once it blows up, they can ruin their lives and make other people in danger. Playing gambling doesn't need to be serious because gambling is just for fun, and you need to treat gambling as a fun thing in your free time. If you are trying to serious in gambling without having control, you can lose the money in a short time.

And not just in sports betting that can make you frustrated, it's happened to all gambling games. So if you feel that you can't gather any information about the game, perhaps, you need to leave it and search for the other match. But yes, knowledge will be an important thing to win in sports betting.

Ofcourse.
So, in that case, what matters is the overall profits, and not a single profit on multiple bets. It looks a bit challenging though. I guess it's better to focus on bets one is very sure of winning (with good research/info) and increase the stake for bets. That could ease the risk of not being profitable overall

If you become frustrated from the loss in gambling then it will hurt you a lot. First your mood will not be good and you will not think from your mind while playing gambling. Secondly and more importantly when you are frustrated, you will try to recover your loss urgently and put more money in gambling without thinking. This may make you lose more.

Correct, this is sports betting where your aim is to win in the long run, it's not like a lottery or games with high reward where you can stop whenever you win big, this is sports, the more wins than loses you have will make you successful and if you keep having positive record, you might consider this as your job or investment being a professional sports betting, and talking about professionalism, there is no room for people who are weak in controlling their emotion.

Better to anticipate as there's always bad night and since you are inside gambling then you need
to take it into account that it will  happened.
Give yourself a break instead of attempting to keep trying your luck,
forget the day and try to comeback strong the next
following.

I think there is a difference between applying your skills to making money as a coder or engineer, and trying to do the same as a gambler. Although luck is a factor everywhere, even in coding, the percentages differ big time. Imo, only 1%-2% depends on luck in a normal profession, meaning you might fail in 1 or 2 in a hundred of your works, while in sports betting, it's hard to achieve such rate of success.

People cannot let themselves be frustrated by the lack of results when they gamble, I know it can be hard especially in sports betting in which you are waiting for another score to fulfil your bet but that is just the way the game works, it is important to not let this bother us because if it does you run the risk of making a mistake in the future and bet too much in a game trying to recover your money and while this will work from time to time the chances you will lose due to your altered emotions is very high.

Actually sports is a pretty adventurous game to gamble upon. Knowledge of the sport is pretty necessary but sometimes sports is much more than that it's just about the individuals performing that day and trust me you can't predict how is an individual going to perform on a given day. All these factors do create a slight advantage for a side but that advantage is generally adjusted in the gambling odds. If it were so easy to just have the right information about the sports and gamble correctly why would sports fixing exist? It exists because people have realized that only one thing which can change the result of a game are the individuals. So I would recommend you to have an average knowledge regarding the sport but have keen knowledge about the players who are playing and accordingly place a bet.

Being impulsive would really be a problem as a gambler not only on making you to do careless acts or decisions which would really worst the situation even more.
The enjoyment and thrill do you really seek thats why you do play either on sports betting or luck based ones.Knowledge on games is really important for some
reason or a particular game but for some then just like others said it isnt really that much needed because you can just put your bet then simply roll and
wait for the result not on watching sports which you would really need to wait and witness on how your bet goes.

But that is if you just want to pass the time and enjoy your bet, there's no need to seriously think which bet will have high probability of winning. But for most sports bettors, the more they know the game, the team, the persons involved, the higher is their chance to pick a good bet. But for others who is just an occasional bettor, just select what your instincts is telling you, no need to overthink about it. But let's admit it, even if we are not so serious with our bet, we are hoping that we will win after the game.

I doubt you could consider luck in coding? That is unless you're just fiddling around the codes and somehow managed to make it work, then that is indeed luck but it shouldn't be normally applied since coding requires knowledge and that can't really betray you, or for any other knowledge-based work out there. Sports betting has knowledge used as well, yes, but the difference is you're basically judging others instead of yourself, which makes it a lot more difficult to actually achieve a result. It's like the difference between knowing how to create your own house vs asking someone who knows how to create a house, the former being you know what to do, the latter being you can only leave it up to someone you "THINK" can do it.

Definitely! And you ought to make whatever logic you applied on those codes works/function, in the first place. Besides, you must laid out everything you'll need before writing a program though -- understanding the problem itself, plan, and whatnot to achieve the target result as precise as possible, and pretty much the same goes with other jobs out there except gambling  ;D. Besides, being a gambler isn't a job, to begin with, it would be better off not to treat such activity be similar to one another. Gambling is for entertainment alone, winning consistently is another.

So, we agree on the main point here: luck plays much lesser role in a knowledge-based work than in sports betting, although sports betting is also, at least partially, a knowledge-based work.

Now let me explain what I mean by saying that even in coding luck is a factor. Of course I don't mean that someone can wright a good code with the help of luck. If you have little knowledge, the probability of creating something worthy by just fiddling around the codes is zero. BUT, if you are a good coder, you can still be affected by bad luck, in a sense that finding a good job can take much more time than needed on average.

Yeah, that should be what he is reffering in luck in terms of coding. When a programmer is working with the codes, there should be a skeleton behind it.
There's always a logic behind if it has functionalies. To becoming succesful on this kind of work, knowledge is very important, you can't start doing it without any background.
If do it without any fundamental knowledges then it is most likely that you will not achieve your aim on that particular set of codes.
Way too different from those lucks that you can get from playing on casinos, which are very randomly obtained.

When it comes to sports betting, I don't think you'll need to be a programmer in order to succeed, the chance of winning cannot be analyze solely based on the numbers (stats) because there are a lot of factors that has to be considered, like the weather and the injuries, and other matters that can't be calculated with numbers.

In fact, everything in this world can be calculated using numbers, but because of our low mental ability, we can't take into account all factors...
This can be classified as fantastic, but it is well reflected in one of my favorite movies "Rain Man"... ;)

Even if you begin your sport gambling journey as someone that bets to have some fun and nothing more most people have a natural desire to win and if you happen to lose many times in a row you are going to be mad about this outcome and then try to remedy it, this simple change in your posture means that you are no longer gambling to get some fun now you want to win and it is at this time when you will begin to look for information to try to improve the accuracy of your bets, something that we know is not easy at all.

It's normal to be mad, we are just humans but what's important is we are able to control our emotion and that's what we should do if we are taking sports betting seriously. The money we risk is important, therefore we should treat it seriously and all we aim is to win, being emotional would destroy proper thinking, so let's set aside our emotion if we are in a journey.

Some people even have a good bankroll, maybe those who are just playing for fun have not tried it yet.

What I'm talking as big is a bankroll that would last longer using a fix percentage per bet only, not that you lose then replenish, not that way.

Meaning they are mainly relying on luck. This makes sport-betting(specially football betting... which many agree is skill-based) to be luck-based to them and skill-based to those who are successful/good sport-bettors.  Won't be surprised if same thing is obtainable in some or many games we think are luck-based

Well, for me that looks for entertainment and thrill, I'll try to stick on that method where I think and consider those factors that tippytoes mentioned such as information about the team and many more. That's the purpose why I'm playing gambling because I want to experience winning and at the same time entertainment.

Why don't we use our minds and luck to have more chances of winning and not let lose of money due to gambling?

That's right, but let's return to the OP's question. Is it possible that knowing all those facts makes you to overcomplicate and overthink things, and to make a wrong bet in the end, a bet that is worse than one placed at random? 

I personally think that someone who knows as much as possible, although may lose sometimes due to bad luck, definitely has an advantage in the long run.

In betting sports I am not only relying on my analysis instead I used to ask my friends regarding on their stand of a certain match. Sometimes we have the same thoughts about the game and sometimes may not but I am open on their analysis and my bet is always subject for change. However, after some considerations I made up my mind and stand on my decision.
 Yes, this is actually true if one really knows a lot then he had a good decision in betting unless he is still confuse with lots of information being feed to him then definitely he is not learning at all. He is just aware and confuse that make him more difficult to decide and bet.

The combination of both mind and luck is a great weapon of a gambler to increase his chance to win. These two are acquired through great experiences. As we experience more gambling, our knowledge and strategy become more vast regarding it. The  best thing to do is to use that, do not ever lose control, stay focused.

But Luck is the most important part right?even how Good your mind is but luck wasn't on your side still you will lose.
Nit like if you are lucky even you are not thinking yet the chance of winning is yours.
But that is best way to gamble,Be knowledgeable,wise and be lucky.

on gambling yes luck is important than on mind , mind can't help you win but if you have a good mind you can think if what is good to do on a certain situation  when gambling

 In real life you cant learn to be lucky but you can learn to have a good mind  . so many things you can do if you have a good mind  like You can choose a good gambling site or avoid the scam , etc...

Luck would really play the biggest part specially in gambling but it will depend on what kind of game you are into yet you would know that you would have better chances on games that
you had idea on whats its all about specially if we do talk about card games and sports betting.

I agree no more that there are instances on where you do make such good analysis and choices but still end up on losing and yes its always been part of the game.
As long the game isn't over the situation would turn-tables unexpectedly.

Knowledge is everything but with gambling, luck would always had the part for you to succeed.

5% luck, 95%, that's the right combination to succeed, I put a very little percentage on the luck since it's not really something we can consistently have, everyone has luck, and since sports betting is just betting against each other, other people can be lucky also but with knowledge you have the edge to win in the long run.

In sports gambling, research is one of the most effective ways on how you can increase your chance of winning. Basically, try to know the practice habits of the players, which team has its players with the most effort exerting in order to win the next games. And also consider the teams which are more passionate to the game than the other. But that will not be the only thing we should consider. When we are watching live sports game and we've betted, we can help for our team to succeed by cheering them and letting them know that we trust them. It is a boost to their fighting spirit to win the game, purely not based on luck.

5% luck sounds a bit low to me. It might vary on the type of sports like single or team based sports. But for me I would say its more like 20% luck and 80% skill. Maybe I am doing not enough research but I keep noticing that bets with very low payouts keep failing me. The risk is very low and I still end up losing. If I could go down to 5% luck only I would probably quit my job and go full time into sports betting.

Yup that will be good. That means we need to have more information about the match to increase our chance to win. Although we still need luck, with much information about the match, we might be able to have won. But that is not always guaranteed because sometimes the weak team can change situations and turn the situations to win. Having valid information helps us to analyze the match, so that will be our key to win.

Knowledge is power. But in this case it is not knowledge at all instead it is doubts or confusion. No one could actually say that knowing everything but will result to confusions. Confusions is already there and one must know how to get the information and process it to become useful to something you wanted to do or decide. In betting confusion is always happen because you have your bet to the side which has higher advantage or to side that you love to win but had disadvantage. It sometimes happen a gambler bet on the other side of team or player of sports but his love to win is on the other team or player of the match.

well your statement is very correct because some sports matches show that at the beginning they have been running well and can lead the match but when one of the teams makes a few mistakes and eventually the whole match goes awry and in the end their team loses, so even though it's like that the team must remain careful when taking steps.

I think the thing that matters is the point at which you cause an informed wager you to feel a smidgen more sure that you will win the wager and your expectations are higher. At the point when you wager aimlessly you don't expect anything and your expectations are not so high. I think an excess of information is the point at which you remain the entire day perusing various papers, examinations and thoughts regarding a specific occasion. Indeed, even with adequate information in sports anything can occur inside a game. As stated, in the event that you have been wagering for a long tot, experience will instruct you even without surveying a ton of data to make your wager. We can likewise pick up information with experience, not simply by exploring so I figure it won't be that mind-boggling.

I think the thing that matters is the point at which you cause an informed wager you to feel a smidgen more sure that you will win the wager and your expectations are higher. At the point when you wager aimlessly you don't expect anything and your expectations are not so high. I think an excess of information is the point at which you remain the entire day perusing various papers, examinations and thoughts regarding a specific occasion. Indeed, even with adequate information in sports anything can occur inside a game. As stated, in the event that you have been wagering for a long tot, experience will instruct you even without surveying a ton of data to make your wager. We can likewise pick up information with experience, not simply by exploring so I figure it won't be that mind-boggling.

I guess personal research is very important for sports betting as a Gambler.  Some past match need to experience to get more understand about the present match to get a good profit.
It's good to know the team player very well because some players can misbehave on the day of Match and it can cause some to loss their on such bet.

And that is my point, even if you are not a professional looking to make a living out of sport betting we will want to win and that is fine but we need to do this in a way that does not put all our capital at risk and one of the best ways to do this is to make use of money management skills that can curb by a significant margin the amount of money you lose in sports betting making your chances of becoming a long term winner higher than it would be possible otherwise.

A good analysis will produce something good too. So far I haven't done a lot of analysis on the team that I will be seeding on every bet I make as that in the end will raise doubt. I prefer to choose a team that I truly believe to be the winner and that is much better without even doing any analysis. I don't bet on all team because that's not my gambling behavior and so far I've only bet on 2-3 team that I truly believe in the EPL and Laliga.

Not making some analysis? Then how you do make basis out of those bets? and of course seeing their stats or potential winning chance does already signify that you are already making out some analysis
thats why i totally disagree that you arent making any basis regarding into your bets because if we do deal with sports bet then its just normal for us to stick out on whose team is a better one by just looking out
the numbers then analysis would comes next.You cant just blindly choose up a team without even knowing their current standing or performance because it would really be just considered to be a blind
selection or totally considered random.Betting on several teams isnt really that need to avoid, as long you do know on what you're doing.

Being knowledgeable about a certain game you wish to play will give you an edge to last longer in the game and better have a chance of wining for the knowledge you do have will enable you to formulate strategies so that you do not get easily busted from the games you play. Gambling games are not typically always into pure luck because if you are ignorant in the game, luck will not be there to save you up for you might get easily fooled and get empty handed winning nothing because you are playing on high risks not knowing the game itself. Pure gamble with a high risk is putting your money into stake of no winning at all.

Ofcourse. I don't know how reliable your 5%/95% is, but I agree that knowledge is important. A bettor who depends on luck could be defeated by very experienced/knowledgeable and skilled bettor. And such experience bettor would likely win consistently and be profitable if he/she bet mostly with bettors who depend on luck in skill-based games/competitions

No one can measure luck so that's just an estimate IMO and it's just his own opinion, as for me, I don't even count luck .  ;D


There's no consistency for a better who solely depends on luck, it's not possible to succeed or even survive in the long run.
You trust luck then you are only good to go with gambling for fun, real talk.

Knowledge in sports is important as it gives you an idea of what are the chances of a team wining and who is their opponent. This give you a fair judgement if the match could be one sided or will be tough and based on the form which player is likely to perform better etc and accordingly we can place the bets. Though it does not guarantee it will happen the same way but will have a better view rather than having no knowledge at all about it.

The numbers are growing.....

Research: US $155.49 Bn for Sports Betting Market Size 2019 Growing at 8.83% CAGR Through 2024
According to the report, the global sports betting market was valued at around USD 104.31 billion in 2017 and is expected to reach approximately USD 155.49 billion by 2024, growing at a healthy CAGR of 8.83% between 2018 to 2024. (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/07/26/1892289/0/en/Research-US-155-49-Bn-for-Sports-Betting-Market-Size-2019-Growing-at-8-83-CAGR-Through-2024.html)

If one believe that he has skills in sports betting then it's not impossible that he will become financially free by just focusing sports betting as his main source of income, unfortunately, the reason why the number grows is because of the majority of the sports bettors are losers.

Although I think it is technically true that the majority of the sports bettors are losers, it has nothing to do with the fact that sports betting market is growing.

The odds are fluctuating based on where the bettors' money is going, and in the end, the winners are paid with the money from losers, with the platform getting its share. So, even if most bettors were winners, it would only mean that all the losers combined lost a bit more than the winners won, and the sports betting platform would still make money.

What I understand on the figure is that year per year, sports bettors exposure are increasing, more bets means more commission for them as they don't really act as the house but just the facilitator of the bet, sports betting is bettor vs bettor, sportsbook are always in the safe side.

It is impossible to accurately quantify how much luck has an influence in our lives, however any gambler that is dependent on his luck to try to win is going to fail, you need to reduce that number to its minimum expression and while there are games in which this is not possible in a gambling game like sports betting this can be done by acquiring knowledge about the games and then using that knowledge to try to better determine if the odds we are given by the casino are fair or not.

Having good knowledge and enough information is such an advantage for you to win the game but it doesn't mean that you the odds of winning are always on your side, it will help you to know whether the opponent team is matched on the team you know, that is the only advantage that you can have in sports betting. It is really hard to bet or to choose where to bet if you don't have a little bit of knowledge about the game. It is just a full guess for you and it will only be based on the luck if you win the bet.

I think it depends on what type of gambling you do if for sports gambling it will be very difficult because sometimes what has been predicted does not match the predictions made, so I suggest not only rely on knowledge because the luck factor can at least be combined with luck with the knowledge you get.

It will be more helpful if you are familiar with the match and know each team to help you choose the right team that has a big chance to win. But maybe we can miss something here, such as the team with a lower odds that can win than the team with a high odds, and that because of that, the team can change the field's situations. If that happens, we can not do anything because it is out of our analysis. Maybe we can try again in the next match with a different team, but make sure that you know which team will compete later.

If you want to wage into sports bets I think you should need to consider on the different aspects and knowledge. Every time I play on e sports and sports gambling these helps me

Who is the player
Where is the place
What is the standing of the time
What are the following odds

These gives you an idea who is the match winner and what are the possible wages you could earn.

Also don't disregard the sport spirit of the player because sometimes they made an unexpected things or actions.

That's right, most sportsbooks operate this way. However, there are some exceptions, when a sportsbook is not exactly on the safe side. This concerns newly appeared, and thus unpopular operators. If a sportsbook doesn't have enough bettors on its platform, it can happen so that a huge bet made in the last minutes will not have enough time to be balanced/compensated by bets on the opposite side(despite the very appealing odds), and the sportsbook will be at risk of losing their own money.

Though there is a problem there.

It is true that luck might be one of the ingredients needed for someone to win in a betting or in a lottery but there is a catch. We don't actually know whether we are lucky or not, if it is shortlived or not. We can't actually rely or depend on that so as gamblers, we just rely on what we can and do things we can in order to have fun and win.

Ofcourse! I believe lots of information/knowledge is really require to achieve success in skill-based bettings. Without this, you are depending on luck as a bettor even though it isn't luck-based games/competitions.
If I want to bet on a match, I will learn alot about the two teams rather than just bet blindly, without knowing enough or anything atall about the teams

Knowledge becomes too much when you are obsessed down to the detail and yet the results are still the same. Just know how the game works and listen to sports commentaries, you do not have to be an analyst to do that. In the end the darling of the crowd will be the likely winner and other than maybe a clincher will happen or a miracle happen.

I do believe that knowledge is a must and even in sports but for me when it comes in sports betting i dont think it has a knowledge level that was needed to be able to win a bet. I do believe in luck and based on my personal experienced i have met some people who are winning a bet frequently and honestly speaking i am not that type of a person. Maybe i have a poor luck skill-based game or intuition. This is the only thing that always keep on my mind, i can't trust myself in betting in sports especially if i am going tk bet with money involved i cant take the risk.

Exactly! Why would you include unimportant info in your considerations in the first place? That would really make you more confused lol. Like on this quote, why would you like to know about weather? Is it really vital in betting? For me, I don't think so. Yeah! It is somehow relevant on playing soccer but every player can play whether it is rainy, hot or cold outside, isn't it? So what's the point of knowing it :D. Unless you found out that a the stats of certain player plummet every time it rains due to slippery grass. That's the time you can say it significant.

Those are commentaries and it's an opinion based from the caster and if you'll use it as analysis, I don't think that's going to give you an accurate call. They may but most likely they are not a good source. We pick good data from them but knowledge and knowledge.
Being too much is bad and I agree with you if you're too down for the detail, it's just going to puzzle you.

I think there's a common mistake in that the more information that people have, the more they think the outcome of the sports event is predictable. The more knowledge you have, the more you underestimate the element of chance that is inherent to the game. Some sports are obviously more susceptible to luck and random chance than others - look at cycling and Geraint Thomas, one of the favourites for the Giro, now being out of contention because of a stray water bottle that simply couldn't have been predicted.

More information is better, but as well as the need to understand exactly which of this information is relevant, it's also vitally important not to underestimate brute luck.

It depends on how you handle the information, you shouldn't have an information overload problem as that is not healthy. In gambling, it doesn't need to be complicated, the approach is very simple, but you need to be very clever to fully understand and will increase your chances of winning.

As a gambler, no one can perfectly predict the outcome of the games and make himself rich, winning 60% in sports betting most of the time is even hard to so, yeah, the figure look easy but it's easier said than done in real life.

Why not just let it happen and play with smile in our faces?the more you seek for winning is the more winning go away ,Just play and if it is yours then no one can take it.
Maybe those who says it is easy are those who has a cheat or so very Lucky in gambling .

Yes, Knowledge is power and that will be a lot of help when betting. I agree that the best tool to decide in betting is knowlege though it may not going to work most of the time but at least you can have an advantage.

Most likely having a knowledge in the bet will likely give you more insights on how, why and when to bet. However, it will still not a guarantee to win in the bet. Being lucky is more important key to win at all. LOL

Knowledge is easy to learn in gambling, but if you have enough experience where you learn from your mistakes, that would make you a great sports bettor and you might succeed gambling in sports. Forget about the saying that gambling is an easy money, that is not true, if you believe that you'll certainly lose as you are not realistic, the truth is, in gambling only few are profitable, the rest are losers that's why casinos are profitable in general.

I agree, but it is much better if knowledge and experience go hand in hand which will help your sports betting have a chance of winning.
Knowledge will help your insight and know the situation about sports that will help in betting, and experience will help you when betting on sports to be more careful because you always learn from mistakes or experiences that will make you a smart bettor.
indeed any gambling bet is not far from luck, but you will have a chance to win if you have enough knowledge and experience.

There's no cheat in legitimate casinos or sportsbook. If caught to be abusing the system, you will be forever banned and that's going to show you what kind of gambler you are.
Somehow, there could be a strategy that's effective to beat the bookies but cheat? I don't think one will exist for a long time.

This is not really possible because we cannot control our luck, if there was a way to do that then you may have a point but it is impossible so when you are playing a game of skill then you need to rely 100% on your knowledge, it is true that if you do this luck is still going to play a factor but the way to deal with this especially when you are suffering from bad luck is to rely on your money management skills so when you lose several times in a row your capital is not really that affected by it.

When you research a team, you have a better chance of winning any bet.  There is a distinct value of knowledge everywhere.  When you do research and bet on a team, your chances of winning increase by 80 percent.  Because you know what kind of pitch a team has, what kind of pitch a player plays well in a team.  If you know something you can easily determine which team will be the winner.

It's good to have some knowledge about the spot you bet on, even better if you follow that sports and players for a long period of time. That makes your chances to win bigger. However, sometimes that also can be a trap because with time you might get too self-confident, thinking you know everything and can predict everything and that is the time you might play too hazardous.

It's not a trap. It just shows that you are confident in your bet because you study, analyze, research on it. That's what your knowledge served for.

Way better than betting on random bets just because someone suggested it either via free picks, tipsters or you saw a majority putting on that specific bet.

It's ok to be overconfident out from your own knowledge compare when you are just overconfident because someone told you that's a good bet.

True and when you do lost on that certain bet then you wont really have that feeling of regret because you know that you had did your best on that one without relying any other on making up decision.

compared when you do just bet just because its been suggested or recommended and it lost then you will surely have that mindset on giving out the blame into that someone who do suggest.

Nothing beats out the contentment if you do just make your own analysis neither it would lose or win then it doesnt matter as long you do enjoy on what you're doing.

We can know the odds and presume out the winning chance but it isnt finalized yet unexpected circumstances can really happen along with the game which will

greatly affect the outcome.As long the game do progress then its never been ideal to presume out that it is already anticipated for you to win.

Trap or not, basically being overconfident indeed could be dangerous for himself. Too much knowledge is good but if you can't make the most of it, I think it will also be useless and therefore, self-control in gambling is an indispensable factor. Having a lot of knowledge by adjusting to several supporting factors, then in the end it is something that will give you an advantage in betting.

I think the most important is just to know and manage the risk, being overconfident will make you underestimate the risk in betting and that is not a good attitude for a bettors as in every bet, there's always a risk regardless of favorable the odds you think.

I completely agree with that, no one should not be too confident as gambling is not made easy for us to win, yes there's no house edge in sports betting but you still can't deny the fact that most bettors are losing money in sports betting, and that explains how risky it is to gamble without discipline and deep knowledge in sports betting.

Knowledge is nothing if you don't know how to manage your attitude and self control because that will save you a lot in gambling and your money and time.

Remember that the more you bet is the more you may lose too much so stop being aggressive gambler and be a responsible gambler.
Luck and knowledge is best combination together with discipline ,it is not bad to be a gambler but not to be an addicted.

This is not exactly accurate. :) There is a house edge in sports betting, or sportsbooks wouldn't survive otherwise. But what is true is that, like in poker, the house edge in sports betting affects the outcome to a much lesser extent. Your skills and knowledge can help you to beat that house edge in some cases(something  which is absolutely impossible in purely luck based games).

It seems like sportsbook really have an edge as explain by this article.

https://www.casinolifemagazine.com/blog/casino-odds-vs-sports-betting-odds-real-house-edge

Bookmaker's always have an advantage! At least that sometimes they can overestimate the odds for obviously the same indicators! For example, recently played football match with N.Ireland and Bosnia and Herzegovina... In principle, the teams are similar in strength, even N.Ireland looked better! So, the original preference was given to Bosnia (x1.6) and N.Ireland (x6).... What is this, advantage or manipulation?

This is a myth that I see all the time and that as you say it is completely false, sportsbooks need to turn a profit and for that they need a house edge, which is not wrong but the good thing is that you can overcome it with your own skills, however it is important to know what it is the house edge on each game so you can select the best lines that give the smallest advantage to the casino so your job is made easier, after all if there is a house edge of a 5% in a soccer game that is way easier to overcome than a 10% house edge in another soccer game.

Right, and since we are talking about myths, let's bust another one.

They say "the house always wins", in a sense that you will eventually go bankrupt, but in reality it's not what the house edge is doing. The house edge is there to make all the gamblers, in total, on a betting platform lose a small part from their bets. Almost nobody is losing exactly the house edge after, say, 100 bets. One particular bettor can be either in profit or loss, and it is uncertain, how many bets it can take to lose everything to the house. It can take 20 years of constant betting, or 200 years, nobody knows.

Basically, winning and losing will depend on the random algorithm that the house putted to their system for the bettors. Usually, for the cryptocurrency based games, the codes used is always audited to make sure that the game is fair. Meaning, we could trust the house from cryptocurrency gambling sites because they are verifiable. But in terms of physical casinos, it is hard to trust them since we don't know if they putted a tricked, let say, to always give the house an edge to long term betting.

I think both. An advantage for them and at the same time with manipulation. It's all about business, whether both teams are equal in terms of strength, standings and other criteria. But all sports bookie are all in for the profit having calculation which will be favored to them.
And AFAIK, most of us here are aware of that.

We can't deny the fact that bookies want to earn huge money from this business. That kind of odds is widespread in a lot of bookies. So make sure to use a relatively good bookie. And right now, I've encountered this thread = comparison website in sportsbooks - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5279405.0 . Seems good to use to see at a glance about the odds on each sportsbook. Though they still have a lot to add here.

I've also noticed the difference versus our won prediction. I'd tried to put my bets on the higher odds as I thought that it gives a higher chance of winning but unfortunately, I dumb loose. I could feel such manipulation and they might try to fool us. That is why I'd find it not important to look into the odds but to look into the team which I did for a long time and it increases my probability of winning.

Comparison and being capable of looking to different odds and spread of bookies will make you choose the best.

If that works better for you, continue working with it. Just choose the casino which you think is fair and acceptable for you.

There's plenty of services like that but it's good that this one only focus on crypto sportsbook so we can shop for the best odds in the market. I also checked the site but thus far they have limited number of sportsbook listed into their website, well, we can understand as they are quite relatively new.

Going back, I think it's understood that bookies wants to make more money, that's the goal of every casinos, which is to maximize their profit but we have to understand this is not a lucked based games, it's a skilled based games where bookies not necessarily called the house, we are betting on the opposite action.

Sports betting is a popular concept and many people are involved in it around us. Skill can work for you and choosing the best team is the main factor here. Because anything can happen within a very short time. So it is better to choose the best one for your safety. I think it's easy to choose if you have enough knowledge about sports.

It is not that easy.

Despite the odds favoring the stronger teams, there are still chances that the other team could win. It is not easy, other than that, if you bet on those favored teams you don't usually get that much profit since the ones with high odds also have a small amount of money to win.

But unfortunately, the best team can not always win the games because sometimes, the weak team can win easily. The field situations can change suddenly without we know, and that can make the opponent panic. We can see that the best team was defeated by the weak team many times, and that is happening not just in one or two times. If we have enough knowledge about sports, especially for the sports that we like, we will have a chance to select the team that can win.

That's definitely normal as they are called favorites for a reason, but does they cover most of the time? That's what gamblers look and analysis as there's always a handicap when betting on either side.

This is on a case to case situation, but in general, I'm telling the fact that though all the time best team wins but they don't cover most of the time.

The fact is that bookmakers sometimes deliberately put the odds they need on the opposite team, and if you are not good at this sport, you can easily be cheated by bookmakers... :D
So it's always DYOR! ;)

There's no cheating in sports betting especially coming from sports book as they provide the odds for both sides, it's only up to us to decide which side we will bet, sometimes we just make a wrong decision as we presume a certain odds will provide us an easy win.

Interesting.
I think one of the reasons why cheating will likely be minimal or non-existent in sports betting is because the outcome of games is not dependent on or determined by things controlled or owned by betting sites. If a betting site owns and controls the football players(for example), things could be easily manipluted.

That is why it is called Game because both party can win even how big the difference are.
exactly it is our own discretion not unless we are just for fun then this is nto a problem anymore.

You're right but the fact that fixed game do really exist thats why there are games which you can really see odd moments where you can presume out that theres something wrong.

When we do talk about being fixed then this doesnt involved some penny amount and of course this will talk about millions.On the topic about how much knowledge is too much?

Everything you done is already into certain extent which unnecessary informations isnt really need but in sports, every information would really be relevant.

There/s no chance they can control the games, by providing the odds they can already make money.

What people don't get is that sportsbook does not act like a house edge where they have a bankroll betting against bettors choices, not that way, they are making money from juice as that's what makes them profitable, so they would not matter anyway as they can always make money regardless of the result.

Though we sometimes thought cheating is happening but we have no proof, that would remain our personal opinion and we can just based according to what we believe, let's man up, accept loses and try to enjoy betting as it is.

Soccer match is unpredictable now. The big club you expected to win match is now losing match. Look at what happened to Manchester United and Liverpool and Leicester last 2weeks ago.
In football never underestimate your opponent (club). Soccer betting is all about luck, nothing much cos anything can happen

Sometimes too much knowledge can play against you because I have seen when I was new to gambling I was winning more than I win now and that's because I used to be random with my picks and I don't think too much before betting. But now I think too much like why the odds favor a certain player, I check for the surface like in tennis surface matters but really can fool you at times and I check head to head which is misleading at times.

I believe having knowledge in sports is good but only until you don't start thinking like you know everything and analyze too much, it is truly said that the best option is to bet on any team or player going by your gut feeling and don't think too much about their head-to-head or their recent form because everything changes so quickly and one record cannot be sustained for too long. So if a player beats another player on last 5 occasions then maybe today that streak will break.

I think the trend of offset is growing in this modern time soccer. In the past, we hardly saw such happening but with the new generation soccer, everything is leveling up. Underdogs have given way to any team's day. ;D

Betting has been very much a thing of luck. This is so because, every new game is a fresh and different game. You never can speculate so accurately on the results though, there often seems to be easy predictions to outcomes but, it's always stands as a probability. There is no such thing as too much knowledge on the sport to guarantee your winning on your stakes. It only offers you a rather high potential at the games but then, the accumulation option becomes a step to push you off course as you can't be right often in all games.
Some gamblers make there stakes based on histories between teams but then, these histories are meant to either be maintained or broken to create new records hence, even your knowledge of the game is not so much an added advantage.

If it's indeed easy to speculate we won't see many sports bookers as they will surely be busted by gamblers who understand the game very well, but it's not that easy and even you have the skills it's still more on luck to really gained rewarding outcome.


That's reality. You can't always win even you think your pick is right based from your knowledge, things can turned unfavorable to you, shit happens.


You still speculating with possibilities nonetheless it's still depends from the actual outcomes of the game you picked.

Just to clarify things, "provably fair" doesn't mean "without a house edge". What's good about provably fair games is that:

1. We know exactly the advantage of the house. It can affect either our winning chance, making it a bit lower, or the amount of the win, in the same way.

2. We can verify any bet to make sure that the house didn't interfere in the process.

But since it's a sports betting thread, I think it's worth mentioning here that you don't actually need additional provably fair system for sports betting. Sports betting is provably fair by itself - you can always verify the result by reading the news(if you missed the live stream of the event).

Exactly, and there's a lot of media outlet to verify and that makes it so reliable, you can't question the final score but as a gambler we can question whether the sports we are betting is rigged or not, but it's not easy to prove so let's just based on the result and continue betting.

IMO, and although I have talked about it in another thread a few days ago, the illusion of control is much higher than the advantage all the information in the world about sports, teams etc. can give.

It's typical, at least for me, to hear the case where an old woman with no knowledge at all about football is the only winner of the first prize and gets rich. Or a friend of mine who never bets nor follows the sports and one day bets and wins a decent amount (a few hundred bucks) versus the total fan friend who week after week gets zero. This isn't a valuable argument, however, and it is anecdotical, but just to share my thoughts based on limited experience.

I think that it is on the basis of the dynamic of sports betting: let you think that you have more chances to win if you have a lot of information, while in reality unpredictable variables are so huge that the knowledge you can have supposes near zero advantage versus a monkey betting with a crossbow.

In many cases, yes, but not always. Let me give you an example. Many bettors place their bets well in advance, and only a few of them keep checking the news all the time. If a sportsman was injured during the last hours before the game, many bettors would miss the news, and wouldn't have a chance to adjust their bets. As a result, you can get some great outcome odds, say, 3.25(+225 American), for something that will most likely happen. Since the team with injured player can still win, a sportsbook won't change the odds by itself, because it's too risky without enough money placed against that team.

So, although it's true that luck plays a big part in sports betting, there are cases when info plays a bigger one.

In most cases where bettors do always miss out most of the time with those last hour happenings or events that do happen neither on a team or in a player which will really changed up the odds.

Some might not really matter much but there are people who are really after these kind of possible events because they do know that they can utilize and also able to lessen up the risk.

Information does really also have a great factor when it comes to sportsbet but we cant deny that luck will always be the main recipe.Its just a matter of combination on where you do really see
what chances you do have.

This should apply to sports-bettings that cannot change/control the outcome of matches/games bettors are betting on.
I think the provable fair we normally refer to is the feature found on betting sites to make the bets fair/fraud-proof.

I also believe as sportsbook doesn't advertise they are provably fair, what they advertise is they offer the best betting odds, while games like where there's a house edge, popular example is dice, they advertise that they are "provably fair", just for us to understand its difference.

The point to me is, how often do these cases happen?


That's it. It could be great to have some empirical data to calculate the chances for different combinations.

One concept which is very important in trading is probably also very important for betting in sports fames, it's called "noise". When there is a particular information published in the newspaper and everyone reads it, some people might think its very useful information. But because everyone knows it the information is already reflected in the prices and odds. So it might be the case when we know a lot we that we think all of it is news, when in fact its not that useful. In this regard its definitely possible we know too much. Too much noise might cloud our decision making. Sometimes it's just better to take a step back and reevaluate what we do know instead of trying to find more and more information.

It can be even easier... Bookmakers make knowingly low odds on a weak team, people think that it will win... And lose no worse than because of the information noise! ;)

I talked a little bit about this on another post, but this is the law of large numbers, a specific player will have a lot of variance on his results and it will take him a long time before his results line up with the EV but as the number of bets approaches infinity then we will see the EV line up with reality, this is how casinos make money, they are not mad if a particular player is turning out a profit on their platform, assuming they take 10k bets per day and the average house edge on their platform is 5% then they are bound to lose 47.5% of the time and win 52.5% of the time over the long term and even if they suffer from variance from time to time as well especially if a whale bets a lot of money on their casino and they happen to lose as long as their money management is responsible and their risk of bankruptcy is zero the law of large numbers assures them they will get their money back sooner or later.

You are referring to the public who normally reads that information, they put that in their mind, process it and bet on the team that they read which was only hype, unfortunately it's true that bookies are smart, they make the odds not on the team's real chances of winning but based on the people's perception that is why most of the time the public are wrong.

I do not think there is actually exist a point when the amount of information available to one can become too much. I believe there's a difference between an educated bet and just betting blindly and it is that with an educated bet comes the confidence that there's a very high probability of winning the bet rather than being nervous about the outcome of a bet made blindly.
I am sure that the more information available to a bettor, the more calculated his bet would be and the more the chances of winning the bet.

The newly introduction of modern instruments (VAR) in football is lovely. It's not only the referee that has the final say of any match. We now have other top officials put in place to checkmate fouls and goals, using VAR. Football is more interesting now

In other words, to all sports betting platforms that accept bets on main events rather than bets on a boxing match in the nearby village. :)


Not often, that's for sure. But, on the other hand, no one is forcing you to bet often, in the first place. Also, considering that there are so many various events you can bet on, these cases might appear to be happening not that rare.


Regarding the law of large numbers, consider the following. For most bettors, on average, 600-700 bets could be enough for getting pretty close to the EV. But if there are millions of bettors, there are also outliers, meaning that even after thousands of bets made, they are still far from the EV, either in a negative or positive way.

Some less competitive non-statistical markets, nobody plays them because they have very poor odds. It has value for high stakes.
Some sports are underrated and some overrated, there are markets that people don't care about and some markets that people jump into.
My take: Go for non-statistical markets, compulsory occurring events that have a low loss rate. There is risk in everything but, sometimes you just can carve out something of value.

You definitely know how to spot value, been doing that, not saying that it's an automatic win on my part but according to my observation, I'm winning more on a popular market and I can easily predict the winner compared to the popular market.