Bitcoin Forum

I saw this earlier on Twitter by one of the famous cryptocurrency user in Twitter PlanB(@100trillionUSD) (https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1308351309427376135/photo/1)
The stock-to-flow chart of PlanB's on Bitcoin is promising, especially when it also show the 200 Moving Average from  the beginning, the Moving Average is acting like a strong support on Bitcoin espeically started around year 2015 - 2016 and on the huge dump last 2019 when we reached around $4,000 before.


What can you say on this chart? Are we touching again the moving average before a new all-time-high on Bitcoin?

It might be a stretched pattern of 2015-2016?

It took about 9 months according to that graph last time to leave the chart and we might have already seen those 9 months (it's looking over 12 on the chart) we could perhaps see a bounce down to the ema again before getting to an ath.
But if it takes 18 months, the 200ma could have reached 8000 or even potentially 10000$ if we get a bit of momentum before an ath break (ie a plateau around 16k).

Possible! I am also looking forward to the mid of the year 2016 and 2017. Which as you can see there, after the blue dots, the red dots started there. A small pullback on red dots and after that, the run upwards continue.
But in term of the 200-week moving average, the 2015 - 2016 is also possible from here, it's kinda deep if ever we will touch it again, it is below $8, 000.

Its good to know that i'm not the only one who can zoom out BTC chart :)

https://i.imgur.com/uJ7GuJZ.png

The only thing that lowers my confidence is the unfavourable environment mainly COVID-19 second wave fear that might effect in similar dump like 03/2020. I don't think that panic sellers will push price that low once again (i think they get their lesson seeing how fast bitcoin recovered doing +200%) but 7000 is very possible.

And end of US bull run that started in 2008 might be a case to in long term.

As I can see on the chart there's a possibility that we're going to experience some slight drops, and eventually bounce amazingly because of the upward trend. Touching all time high has no assurance yet, but somehow it's capable of happening without an specific date of prediction. With previous years of productivity, I guess same pattern will apply but with longer timeline.

A pleb like me can't say what's possible, or what's impossible, but if it's $7,000, you know what to do. Plus we're lucky to have a back-up/fall-back in Bitcoin in case the state loses control of the monetary system. Don't lose confidence. 8)

A new all time high doesn't sound like possible if I am being honest, sure the moving average looks like a bullish run is around the corner and we could have something amazing but that is only looking like that because we are actually in a good position to sky high the price very quickly and very easily, we just need few hundred million dollars (sounds a lot but in a huge market it is not) and we could be over $12k in a day.

Basically this doesn't mean it will go up, maybe even MA doesn't mean it will go up, things could always "look" better but result with worse because not everything that should happen ends up happening all the time which causes the price to do something unexpected. However I do not think that will be this time around, I feel like over $12k is the aim here.

This looks good. But don't you think there could be a similar downtrend if bitcoin breaks the MA200 to move downwards? We are going to have a free fall if that happens. Symmetrical triangles generally don't provide a very concrete proof of trend continuation or reversal so this theory remains open on both sides of the chart
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Covid thing might even work in favour of bitcoin. I mean it's hard to predict the exact impact ot Covid on Bitcoin. A complete economic lockdown how does it affects bitcoin it doesn't has any business and nor is it's value determined concretely by it's flow in the market. Though some have predicted this proof of this still isn't concrete.

Here's another take on it. Maybe upside resistance has not broken yet, and we are still inside this multi-year triangle. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305)

https://i.imgur.com/QkSbsJN.png

A break above the June 2019 high in the $13,800s would invalidate this idea. Until then, I wouldn't be surprised to see a zig zag or contracting triangle to form Wave E, which generally target the 0.5-0.7 Fib range.

Accounting for time, a test of the 0.618 in the $7,100s lines up well with another test of the 200-week MA. A buy opportunity for sure, if it comes.

We could, but only if we have worldwide lockouts for second covid-19 wave, including China.  Price could go sub $7000 then. If that dont happen we will not see that and sooner or later price will not go under $10000 anymore.   

Yeah long term chart for Bitcoin looks great, as always. Looking like in the near future corrections will stay in the five digits so that soon we'll never see 4 digits again. I think next year will basically be between 10k and 20k, perhaps with some time spent a little over $20k. And then 2022 probably a boom up towards $100k. I think it'll still take some time to build up enough confidence in the market and bring in more big players to eat up supply before we see this bull run turn into the next boom so yeah might not really heat up until around 18 months from now. Also the continued negative economic effects of Covid and the loss of jobs is another reason I expect the next price boom to happen in 2022 rather than 2021. But in the medium term both the long term and short term charts look good for Bitcoin to push up in the mid-teens in the coming half year.

All time high is a bit of a stretch, it is obvious that bitcoin has a good bullish outlook and I would assume it would go that way as well but we can't really say it could be ATH that is 20k and we are far from it. Many things could change before that happens so I am assuming we are going to end up with a good increase, like maybe 14-15 range at best but that would probably be it, I doubt it would be any higher than that.

This is why I believe we should be focusing on buying right now but not waiting until 20k, if you want you could take out your profit for example at around 14-15k levels, that way you would only be dealing with whatever is left and if it continues to 20k+ you could profit but if it goes down you could get out without a loss as well which sounds like the best strategy for now.

Not a fan of planB but have said often enough I *am* a fan of 200MA =) It's really been a long-recognised support, and while we have seen dumps break it, it always seems to provide a nice cushion. I don't trade but really, if I did, I'd be adjusting limit orders all around 200MA for long-term buys, and even medium-term.

Buying below the 200-week MA has historically provided the best long term entries. If you can stomach it, that's definitely the time to buy. The trouble is, when it comes, most people are panic selling and capitulating instead.

It takes a strong constitution to go against the market and buy into a crash! The people who say they are going to buy usually end up pulling their bids out of fear and then chasing the price up later. :P

Yes the 200 WMA is a very strong support. I actually ended up buying the last 2 times that zone was tested during the 2018 crash and during the covid19 black thursday back in March 2020. Honestly it felt very scary buying at those levels but I figured I didn't want to miss out if WMA support actually held and it did.

Many people were very bearish on BTC whenever it touched the 200 WMA. In Dec 2018 they assumed that it would go to $1000 and they would buy it there and they missed out. During March 2020 people were assuming stock markets around the globe would halt trading and bitcoin would go to $0 and it would be a complete loss and again missed out. So if in the future it ever tests the 200 WMA, its always a safe bet to buy there. Even if it doesnt end up holding overall, I think it would at least provide a bounce because many traders want to long in that same area and most shorts would cover at least in that area.

This means bitcoin is still in the uptrend channel and until there is a weekly candlestick closing below it we should keep holding. I really see this chart agree with my predictions and hopefully everything go in this way longterm.

I generally don't make such a huge deviance from my "cost averaging" -- I earn and don't buy, so I rather time big assignment invoices if possible, in that way effectively "buying" so yeah, definitely try and bulk things together whenever that 200MA looks tight.

March was lovely, a shame I couldn't take full advantage but yeah, good thing I don't trade. Not sure how emotions would get hold of me;)

I think it will go to 200 day average which isnt saying alot as its not a great deal downwards but its far enough to disappoint or surprise a few and snuff momentum buying.   I dont see its breaking upwards, its possibly in decline medium term and the July move and decline since then could be enough to say it has to confirm the 200 day average again.   If we were positive we shouldn't be drifting even when its upwards I'm not buying that story for being too easy.
  200 week in March is fair enough as it was a one off event not seen before or ever expected but its on the road map now.

How we can say Bitcoin is in the downtrend? When it is touching the 200 week moving average line? Like what we experience in 2015 - 2016 and 2019?
For me, I don't think so since we already experience a lot of downtrend these past few years even without basing on the 200 week moving average nor basing when we drop or touch the 200 week moving average line.

I would really love to see Bitcoin touching that price again or at least go near the historical line so we can accumulate more. Either way, this just shows that the current trend of the Bitcoin in the past years is going upwards and no signs of going downward whatsoever.

That 200 weekly MA is a good basis for the long term investors (around 5 years min.) but whenever I do a very simple TA, I'm only using the 200 daily MA and that is a strong support too.

We should start to deviate upwards, away from the 200 week MA. It may take another month or two but expect buying pressure to arrive before New Year & we’ll perhaps see a new yearly high.

Yeah the 200W MA is what Bitcoin bounces off of in bear markets. BTC won't be going near that again until after the next peak and crash. So back to 200W MA in like 3 years maybe.

As always, the long term Bitcoin chart looks great. The bull market is continuing to slowly heat up. The future looks very bright for continued mass adoption of bitcoin in the coming years.

You can't tell from the photo shown in the first post, but when BTC was crashing during the Corona Panic it actually went below and closed below on the daily chart below the 200 WMA. It also closed slightly below (almost at) on the weekly chart. So it looks like you might of missed buying it back in March 2020 however if you had an order to buy at the 200 WMA you would of gotten a while.

Only issue is where your stop was placed. I took an order when it touched the 200 WMA but I had to extend my stop, and was almost stopped out. However luckily it was a soft stop and very quickly it rallied away from my stop. However unless you were live trading that day, it seemed very scary to buy it then. Most people would of chickened out to tell you the truth.

I'm not big on catching falling knives like that, but when I do it, I don't use stop losses. It would take a weekly candle close, and possibly 2, to confirm failure of the 200-week MA. Therefore, selling (stop lossing) into the high volatility panic on lower time frames like the daily seems arbitrary, doesn't it? Seems like an easy way to lose a great position. I figure if you want a low risk entry, you probably don't want to catch the knife at all.

It's nice to see bitcoin trending up again and we could be heading towards a second peak for this cryptocurrency. Considering it has a fixed cap of 21 million, has permeated into popular mainstream culture and is more accessible to the general public than every - it seems inevitable for it to keep increasing in value, similar to the history of gold. Time to stock up before the rush

time to stock up before the rush was back in winter '19 ;)
and again at the end of '19
and again in March '20

but yeah if people didn't stock up on all those great opportunities they'll still make a boatload of money the next couple years (or longer) by stocking up now!

Between companies starting to move some of their treasury reserves to Bitcoin, Grayscale exploding recently and showing that institutional investment in Bitcoin (though still tiny) is continuing grow faster and faster, and Paypal being the first like really major player with an enormous amount of users to add Bitcoin to its platform, yeah its a good time to be in Bitcoin! :)



As for the 200W MA, to me there's not much point in looking at it right now. As a metric it is long enough so that it is always heading upwards, but it only really is useful for finding about where the bottom of the market will be during a bear market (basically anytime the price is near the 200W MA you should be throwing everything you have into Bitcoin). So it'll become real useful for buying the bottom in a few years, but for now it doesn't really tell us anything. Really the 100W MA is like the sign post to watch out for, if price falls significantly below that it is time to buy and buy hard, and then 200W MA acts as the floor. The Covid crash briefly broke through the 200W MA but that was a giant all-market panic sell, which is different than a normal bitcoin-related crash, and the price quickly sprung back above that indicator anyways. Comparing the 100W and 200W MA's right now it looks similar to mid-2016, which feels about right when you consider this market cycle is moving slower than the last and so you can stretch out the rest of the build-up phase from mid 2016 - spring 2017 to Fall 2020 - maybe end of 2021 before things start getting real exciting again.

I generally agree but it's good to remember that bear markets take different shapes and forms. The 2014-2015 cycle was a sharp price correction followed by accumulation at the bottom. The 2018+ cycle was (or has been) much more of a sideways correction.

Although I think it's getting unlikely at this point, I still don't want to rule out one more test of the 200-week MA, especially while we're still below the 2019 highs, and especially if the run-up to new ATHs does take longer than in 2016.

Until Bitcoin reach $20k is just Buy buy buy. Once it reach $20k a time fro hold start. Few month latter when Bitcoin start going exponentially it is time to look around what to spend it on. These are the 3 phases. Buy, hold, spend.

Yes, this is a very old strategy, but since we witnessed the last great all time high and following the bear market, one should put the "buy and hold" as the best strategy in crypto specially after it has been burst in 2017, specially 2018, which is the best start to accumulate and wait till the next bubble phase happen again. And I partly agree with @exstasie  said, this bull run might take a different shape and form, and it will take longer as compare to the previous runs, 2016 accumulation and 2017 all time high.