Print Page - What could be the impact of the US election on currencies?

Hi Friends,
Of course with argument
What could be the impact of the US election on currencies?

Does it matter who wins?
Will Trump's victory increase the dollar?
If currencies are supposed to be lower, what is the best time to withdraw capital?

my opinion:

With Trump winning, the value of the dollar will rise sharply as the digital currency market declines.

But if Biden wins, digital currency will start a good climb

But Trump has created 1 million jobs and the dollar is at its best in terms of global value.

Surely more than a million jobs have already been lost in the US though so creating 1 million might not help much.

If Biden repeals some of the trade tariffs set in place by trump then every other market other than the US ones might be positively effected though (even if it might be unlikely).

I think there's still a high chance of trump winning so it might be more likely a fall happens when Biden comes in after the election (and the rate is already responding to trump having a majority)...

i don't think it matters who wins the US election because we are in for a big inflation thanks to crazy money printing policy of the government which doesn't rely on who takes the office, the damage is already done. the inflation has already started showing its ugly face but not yet as big, probably because it is early and possibly because the election is on the way so it is kept silent until it blows up.

Quote from: mr_ROBOTT on October 09, 2020, 06:27:16 AM

But Trump has created 1 million jobs and the dollar is at its best in terms of global value.

is it really? they just printed 22% of total USD supply that has ever been printed this year alone!
Covid is still infecting 50k per day thousands of which die. and it has severely damaged the economy without any signs of slowing down.

Quote from: mr_ROBOTT on October 09, 2020, 06:27:16 AM

Does it matter who wins?
Will Trump's victory increase the dollar?

No matter who wins, I think the dollar is likely to rally after the election. This is for 2 reasons. First, the DXY has been downtrending since March. It's due for a mid-term rally soon, even if it's only a bull trap. Second, elections are good for the dollar, probably because they bring a sense of certainty to the markets. Markets love certainty, and they hate uncertainty.

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For all the forecasts about dollar weakness, history shows that the greenback is poised to appreciate after November’s presidential election -- regardless of who wins.

The dollar strengthened in the 100 trading days after nine of the past 10 elections from 1980 to 2016, according to Richard Falkenhall, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-01/elections-are-good-for-the-dollar-especially-when-democrats-win

Let me quote our dearest Theymos and what his stance on the US election.

So it's up to us whether we believed his statement or not. So I'm guessing that this US election will be critical for bitcoin as well.

Quote from: theymos on October 02, 2020, 03:08:02 PM

I tend to visualize the price of Bitcoin as being composed of two components: a "digital gold" component which will behave similarly to gold, and a "risk asset" component which will behave like leveraged exposure to the S&P 500. (Neither with 100% correlation, of course, since Bitcoin is its own thing.) The gold component is maybe 20% of the price currently, while the risk-asset component is maybe 80% of the price, so the risk-asset component usually dominates.

I think that any clear resolution to the election will boost risk assets significantly in the medium-term, Bitcoin included, since one of the biggest risks will be taken out of the picture. A chaotic, disputed election outcome will probably cause risk assets including Bitcoin to crash. If chaos lasts a long time, the "digital gold" component of the Bitcoin price may start to dominate more, and this may allow its price to recover more quickly than some other assets. Long-term, a Biden presidency is probably somewhat worse for Bitcoin, since his administration will be more anti-Bitcoin and will be much more likely to put forward harmful regulations. (Not that Trump is super pro-Bitcoin or anything...) I wouldn't expect these sorts of long-term predicted effects to cause much shorter-term price action, though, other than maybe a very-short-term panic crash.

Whether it is a win for Trump or Biden, the economy and the money value is much dependent on the common people and the industrialists. Maybe there'll be small disturbance in the market if Trump leads, because his political policies were mostly against the common man and completely focused on economy recovery. He tries to make it happen overnight which once again makes the people suffer. Anyhow the winning percentage is strong on his side, which means people like his policies.

It doesn't matter who wins, the US economy is slumping, so whoever it is then he will inherit the problem. On the contrary, if Biden wins we might see a decline on crypto and not a good climb. Why I said that, we haven't heard Biden stance on crypto specifically bitcoin. So it is still up in the air and maybe he will get advisors that are not pro-crypto and it might affect US stance on it for the next coming years.

Quote from: mr_ROBOTT on October 09, 2020, 06:27:16 AM

Either 1 of them will win the result will still the same since for sure they will look at the economic growth of the US after this pandemic hit so hard on them, although we will see some little changes since they have different strategies but for sure in the end I think they will pursue on what trump did if Biden win or continue to improve if trump will also win.

I believe there are nation to nation changes and people do not really care about how much nation to nation changes matter in the bitcoin world. For example there was a topic here about how bitcoin broke the ATH in Turkish money, that means while we are talking about will it be 11k or 12k or is it staying at 10k, when will it be over 20k ever again whatever they actually peaked in bitcoin price.

So, yes in a way USA will impact currencies, in a way that some nations money will worth more and some nations money will worth less, depends on the relations USA will build depending on the election results which means we are going to eventually have higher priced bitcoin in some nations and lower in other nations because of the exchange rate US dollar will have with those local currencies.

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If Biden repeals some of the trade tariffs set in place by trump then every other market other than the US ones might be positively effected though (even if it might be unlikely).

Here is likely the largest difference, trade does matter more then FIAT in the end and if Biden is somehow a better neighbour in terms of making trade deals possible then it will alter currency flows because of this. In terms of fiscal budget and strength of dollar I see no great difference between the two parties, they are both in deference to Federal Reserve policy which is very compliant and inflationary. Easy money generally helps crypto in contrast as a more regular standard but trade is the big factor that could alter and largely this could depend on other countries attitude to the new administration so we dont know exactly how some of the largest countries will react but many perceive Biden as better publicity rather then whatever change Trump administration was trying to implement in negotiations.

Quote from: romero121 on October 09, 2020, 01:15:38 PM

Really? I don't know.
Or, do they just prefer Trump rather than to pick Biden?
Like there is no other option. ;D

Economist, businessman and many more. Sure they will be doing good in their economy but what about his other agenda's?
Look at how it is now. They are divided. What is the use of a great economy when people are not united?
Sorry, I got emotional.

I don't understand why the crypto market should fall exactly after Trump's victory in the elections, and in Biden's elections it should continue to grow?
It seems to me that now the stock market is artificially supported... And after the presidential election, it could collapse, and with it all other markets, including the crypto!

It could go both ways, depending on who takes the seat as the POTUS. I hate to see it but most polls still bring up Trump as the favorite amongst most of the states, and we know how much Trump fucked up the economy of the US while it was suffering against the wrath of the virus. Millions of jobs lost, stimulus funds came though not sufficient enough to aid the economy that much, and the early reopening of most states which caused a second wave of the disease that later resulted in to a huge number of deaths. Trump's re-election may cause negative impressions toward traders slowly losing their chill on the current state of affairs in the US, and might check other places wherein they could place that money they pulled out from crypto to benefit from the fall that is looming on some asset classes.

It is always weird to see people who do not speak native English to support Trump. I keep reminding myself that Russia actually had a bot army that would support Trump and the only reason why Trump didn't get jailed for it was the fact that he is the sitting president and he just got away with "Russia did help me but I didn't asked for it so it is not my problem", which is funny when you think about it.

Trump "created 1 million jobs and dollar is at its best value"?? Seriously? Under trump administration the unemployment rate reach to record numbers and by 3x as well not a small number, he not only broke the record but made it three times bigger than the biggest it has ever been. Dollar is so worthless right now that all the money printed before him was just 4 times more than he did in just 4 years, dude basically made dollar a toilet paper for many nations.

It's no matter who will win because I only care about the situations that can back to better than now.
Maybe each candidate can eliminate their ego and not trying to attack each other because the important thing now is how to make the situations is under control.
Dollars can rise, crypto can rise, people can get their jobs back or have a new job, and people can survive and pass the worst situations.
We will see who is the new President and what he will do related to current situations now.
Hopefully, the new President can seriously think about solving the pandemic problem and works hard for all people.

USA printed a lot of money in a very short-term period so no matter whoever comes to the leadership the value of the dollar is going to lose further and it is going to increase the price of bitcoin just due to the inflation on the fiat currencies. Creating a million jobs is not going to happen in real soon so these all are just political acts and nothing more.

I think that the period before the election is the time of uncertainty and that's why there's always a chance stocks will go down and cryptocurrencies along with them.

No matter who wins everything will start coming back to normal after the election.

That said I think that Trump comes with less of the unknown and if he won we'd expect a faster recovery and more stability in the dollar and stocks. Biden is more of a wild card and with him the recovery may take longer. Investors will want to wait and see what he does first.

Elections are more about the value of the dollar. So far there have been few statements about Bitcoin from candidates. I don't know their position. But the dollar is very volatile, many bet on a devaluation, this would affect the price of Bitcoin increasing its value in relation to the dollar. Inflation, unbridled printing of money, increase in the debt bubble.

Now, this is in the long run. Most want to understand the impacts in the 6 months after the election.

"The dollar may tumble to its lows of 2018 on the rising likelihood of Joe Biden winning the U.S. election and progress on a coronavirus vaccine, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-says-short-dollar-odds-015258010.html#:~:text=(Bloomberg)%20%2D%2D%20The%20dollar%20may,to%20Goldman%20Sachs%20Group%20Inc.

I believe having good relations with other nations would help everyone, it would help USA but it would help other nations as well, so at the end of the day humanity is a big one family and we should all work together to be better all around, Trump is widely against that, dude is firend with NK dictator and we all know how he approaches to Putin as well.

So, if Biden gets picked, he would allow relations with other nations get better as well and that would mean a lot more business between USA and other nations which would make the economy a lot more stronger hence a better USD which could mean people investing once again because their money worths something which would be money going to bitcoin a bit as well (and mainly stock market). So Biden would mean btc going up in the long term.

Of course, it will! This is too self-explanatory anyway.

Two different leaders have two different perspectives, talent, skill, and knowledge with everything. They have different ideas when it comes to everything.
Economically, two of them have different ways on how to run a country's economics. It's just that, Trump already has more experience than Biden. But yes, it will definitely affect the cryptocurrencies slightly, this proven when Trump announce regarding his health condition.

Either Biden has a better strategy and will to improve their GDP, or Trump already learned lessons from his experience to execute it better if he wins. Let's see to it who's gonna win this presidential election.

Quote from: Findingnemo on October 11, 2020, 03:20:49 PM

They done during the pandemic season and I believe who ever wins on this election can make a big impact on the market, stocks and cryptomarket will move big after the US election, but you're right the result can't make a big change easily and maybe a short pump and after that, we will back to reality of facing so many financial problems. Many people lose their jobs, the government have to support first the small companies so they can start all over again and that create jobs to many.

Right now the debate is much focused on job creation, because millions have lost their jobs. As a result more and more plans have been revealed stating creation of jobs.

Trump has put forth statements to restrict and make immigrant employees leave the country and prioritise job creation for US citizens. This will create some panic and the same will turn the vote against him from the immigrants who have got PR. Whoever wins is gonna support, so more chance of bullish trend from the day of revealing the results.

Latest polls are showing that Biden is leading by about 12 points right now, it is not even close right now and the elections are about 3 weeks away right now.

By comparison in the last elections where everyone saw Hillary as the sure winner for some reason, the difference was about 3-4% when it was around mid October, obviously there was polls that showed Hillary +10 as well but there was also polls showing Trump +5 as well, but the median average on October 10-15 polls was around 4 points for Hillary.

People still saw her as sure winner because Trump looked like a mockery candidate and not a serious thing, people even assumed Trump himself didn't expected to win. That 4 points was "sure thing" back in that day, today it is over 12 points and people still work hard to make it bigger to make sure Trump doesn't have a single chance. The difference between these two elections are like day and night.

You haven't really given any examples of why you think the Trump scenario (or Biden for that matter) will affect the markets. Unless there is a war, pandemic or apocalyptic disaster then the markets will fluctuate up and down - it always does. If you're hoping to make your fortune on Crypto, then it would seem you are a decade too late unless you want to put a little aside each month until you retire.

If Biden gets elected the dollar will be valued a lot better that is for sure, I know people assume just the opposite but I do not get where they are getting that data. Sure maybe the big companies may not get what they wanted but the bottom line will be protected a lot better.

Biden is a democrat candidate and even though he is as centrist as they get, dude at least is still center and not far right, Trump is far right which means the logic he has about "saving the economy" is not allowing the stocks to fall, that is why I think the real power of USD comes from the people and those people will be better under Biden. I am not american so I can't vote in this election but if I was and I wasn't a super wealthy person I would definitely vote Biden because he would take care of me better.

Quote from: mr_ROBOTT on October 09, 2020, 06:27:16 AM

But Trump has created 1 million jobs and the dollar is at its best in terms of global value.

And this is what matters for the strength of the dollar. Job creation is important to the American economy and likewise any other too.
Example, when there is job, it builds the confidence of the citizen in the government.
It reduces different vices that youths can be involved in if idle.
It grows the GDP because production will increase and the economy will boom which will attract many positive relation in different ways. So whoever wins between Biden and Trump, job creation will be a plus to the dollar to rise and be stronger.

One thing is for sure, regardless of who will be the winner, the aftermath will make an impact to currencies. The actions of the elected individuals will be the catalyst of the "change" whether it would be good for currencies or not.

Quote from: mr_ROBOTT on October 13, 2020, 06:03:03 AM

Quote from: Taskford on October 09, 2020, 01:38:42 PM

As you mentioned, the strategies of both sides are different.
And this creates a difference in the economic cycle as well as the presence of bitcoin in society.
We are unaware of government policies, and we may wake up one morning to see that bitcoin trading is banned! :-\

Such thing is possible depending on the following "regulations" to be made once their term started. Let us just hope that the person who will win the election would give betterment to the economy. Right now, people in U. S. has no full control of the outcome but the consequence of the outcome will generate another outcome and that is guaranteed.

Quote from: sana54210 on October 15, 2020, 05:58:54 PM

If Biden gets elected the dollar will be valued a lot better that is for sure, I know people assume just the opposite but I do not get where they are getting that data.

Markets love certainty. That's why any resolution of a US presidential election has historically been good for the dollar.

To boot, the DXY has been downtrending since March and is due for a relief rally. These two factors combined make me fairly confident we're looking at a DXY rally in November-December. It could even be a long term accumulation bottom that's forming right now off the September lows ~ 91.7.

Biden vs. Trump......it's tough to say. I'm not sure. The DXY ranged sideways throughout Trump's presidency.

Quote from: sana54210 on October 15, 2020, 05:58:54 PM

actually in think in short term dollar will tank if Biden wins because Trump has publicly said that he will act like a butthurt if he loses and the drama that he will create after his loss will create a lot of uncertainty in the the market and tank US economy for a while at least.

in long term however it won't matter who wins because the economy has been shrinking by a lot for a while now and all the large amounts of money they have been printing should show itself somewhere and we still haven't had the recession yet which can easily last 15 to 18 months.
on top of that all the wards Trump started during his term will take turn affecting USD value specially the one with China. the fact that many countries started thinking about decreasing their reliance on US dollar is a clear sign of things to come.

It is hard to say whether the dollar will become bullish if either Trump or Biden would win. That's subject to debates and speculation. Even experts are not sharing the same outlook as far as the dollar versus the winning candidate is concerned.

But I can say that cryptocurrency will still gain progress regardless of whoever wins in the coming elections. Cryptocurrency does not depend on the political fate of the candidates and even the US. The world is now gradually accepting cryptocurrency. It is already in the mainstream. That is why whoever becomes the winner in the elections will not cause a decline to cryptocurrency's growth.

If we are talking about "impact" as in it is directly connected to one another I don't think such thing exist but if we are talking about connections here in relation to speculation I think OP got it right. Whales or people who have influence in the market will take advantage on who wins the election as they know their ties and connection to cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies will be use as a trigger for these markets because in reality after winning the election they will just be bullish on that market but there is no immediate effect it will apply as soon as they are an elected official.

If we'll have an impact it's going to be indirect, which means the election news will hit the stock market first, just like the lockdown did and the stock market will impact bitcoin and bitcoin other cryptocurrencies. Since the election is usually a nervous period, many investors prefer to stay out of the market ready to go back in when it's all over and they know there were no riots or anything like that, I think we'll go up in a few months.

Well back in 2016 people assumed that if Trump wins the markets will go down, instead he won and there was the biggest bull market rally in stock market history.

Hence everybody assumes the same this time. So people will buy if Trump wins, however you all know what happens when the herd all goes into one trade, usually the opposite happens. Hence we might get a quick ATH and then surprise , the markets can start turning.

Quote from: adaseb on October 18, 2020, 09:29:43 PM

The US election has a biggest influence in the market and in cryptocurrency, I believe if Trump won again the market will still rise even if there’s a latest statement about the bloody market recently coming from Trump’s tweet. Biden can also result the same thing, we don’t know how the companies think and how the market behave, but this is an anticipated US election and almost 3 weeks from now, we will see the next trend of the market.

Quote from: goaldigger on October 18, 2020, 09:53:55 PM

Quote from: adaseb on October 18, 2020, 09:29:43 PM

After all we really didn't know if that one really affect since there's no basis among those past claims regarding on Trump's victory and I will not gonna buy those things since maybe all of them are just hype. But let see the result if new ATH will come or the bull run came after trump wins then maybe I will convinced about that.

It will affect cryptocurrency for sure. It's just that we're not sure of the effect will be bad or good. depends on who will win.

Trump has better experience and knowledge than Biden. However, Biden might be the possible reason why cryptocurrency will increase.
However, printing money has a major effect I can tell but on this upcoming election, I guess there is only a slight effect on all stock markets and bitcoin is include.

Quote from: adaseb on October 18, 2020, 09:29:43 PM

Maybe. I'm a little uncomfortable making grand assumptions like that based on that massive sample size of 1. :P

I will say though, I am nervous given the trajectory of COVID-19, the threat of new lockdowns, and the general feeling of overconfidence that a vaccine will be effective and widely available next year. I think that in addition to all the QE and fiscal stimulus, the market has been pricing in a lot of hope and optimism since March. I can see a harsh shakeout on the horizon for that reason alone.

Quote from: adaseb on October 18, 2020, 09:29:43 PM

First of all stocks are down, there is no rally, it is down right now, you could say it is due to pandemic, and yes pandemic dropped the stocks, also killed over 200k+ people, worst in any nations, there are nations back on where they were before this all started and even higher, not USA, that is not pandemics fault, it is Trumps fault because if other nations can handle it, USA should have as well.

Secondly that "rally" you talk about came from trump cutting trillions of dollars worth of taxes from the companies that you saw stock market increase, and those companies had "one time" let off from taxes and that was it, they are back to worse than they were before that, so we could say trump didn't get 2 trillion dollars for absolutely no reason and created a bigger deficit for nothing as well. Basically dude did everything in the book about how you could ruin a nations economy.

Quote from: jaberwock on October 20, 2020, 06:24:24 PM

Where the hell have you been? Stocks are up on the year. The S&P 500 is up 6%, the NASDAQ is up 27%!

Quote from: jaberwock on October 20, 2020, 06:24:24 PM

Secondly that "rally" you talk about came from trump cutting trillions of dollars worth of taxes from the companies that you saw stock market increase, and those companies had "one time" let off from taxes and that was it, they are back to worse than they were before that, so we could say trump didn't get 2 trillion dollars for absolutely no reason and created a bigger deficit for nothing as well.

No, it's not a one time thing. The corporate tax cut is permanent, until and unless it is repealed by Congress.

The tax cut enabled large scale corporate stock buybacks. That's probably the biggest reason that stock indices pumped so much the last couple years.

The Fed is restricting the biggest financial firms from engaging in buybacks to make them buttress cash reserves, but the restrictions only extend through the end of the year: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/federal-reserve-extends-limits-stock-buybacks-dividends-big-banks-policy-2020-10-1029640042

Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: mr_ROBOTT on October 09, 2020, 06:27:16 AM