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Ray Dalio Admits He May Be Wrong About Bitcoin But Still Concerned of Government Ban?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has admitted that he may be wrong about bitcoin after stating that governments will ban the cryptocurrency if it “becomes material.” Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates; his hedge fund is the largest in the world.
"I might be missing something about bitcoin so I’d love to be corrected." He quoted..

Firstly, he claimed: “Bitcoin is not very good as a medium of exchange because you can[not] buy much with it (I presume that’s because it’s too volatile for most merchants to use, but correct me if I’m wrong).”

Secondly, he asserted: “it’s not very good as a store-hold of wealth because it’s volatility is great and has little correlation with the prices of what I need to buy so owning it doesn’t protect my buying power.”

Next, he reiterated the risk of governments banning bitcoin that he outlined in an interview with Yahoo Finance last week. Dalio said that if bitcoin “becomes material, governments won’t allow it.” He emphasized: “they’ll outlaw it and they’ll use whatever teeth they have to enforce that. They would say … you can’t transact the bitcoin, you can’t have a bitcoin.”
see full article here...https://news.bitcoin.com/ray-dalio-bitcoin/

What do you think about this guys?

Ray Dalio is definitely wrong and he already admit it that he might be wrong. Bitcoin is already more than 10 years now of existence in crypto world but it is still alive and valuable. And because of the decentralization of bitcoin, government has no control over it which means even government banned bitcoin, people will always find ways on how to continue using bitcoin. The years of bitcoin and this continued development are the proof that Ray Dalio is wrong. Bitcoin is very useful to us nowadays. It serves not only as an investment but as a means of payment and also as an alternative source of income during the pandemic. People enjoy it.

I guess the mistake he has is assuming that government currencies would become obsolete with the rise of Bitcoin. I'd like to say he's wrong on that part imo, since, in the first place, government currency would never disappear as long as they're basically in public control. And additionally, they may place regulations over regulations on Bitcoin, but that's it, it's not like they can put it in a leash since you can't even touch it, let alone put one on it. As for volatility, well we can't deny it now, but in the long term it should slow down one way or another. As for merchants not being able to use it due to volatility, aren't there merchants that already use them? I've used a few before, and I'm pretty sure there wasn't really any issue with it.

That must have also been the initial preference of the government. Why bother regulating this alien currency when it is not in anyway helping the government in its goals? As a matter of fact, this currency is a form of resistance, so it should just be banned outright. The problem, however, is that it can hardly be implemented because Bitcoin is both there and not there at the same time. I mean, how could you ban Bitcoin? How could you shut down Bitcoin?

Well, that's how conservative (about finance, not politics) thinks. They are cautious about the new technology but open to being convinced. The negative side of this stance is that they tend to miss out on buying opportunities until Bitcoin becomes more and more expensive. Imagine if he just put a small amount of his fund into Bitcoin when the price was $100 or $1,000.

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This was an interesting development in the "government will ban bitcoin" discussion:


Firstly

I think merchants who exchange bitcoin for fiat after accepting transactions can minimize or eliminate affects of volatility. Uncertain. This isn't something I've seen much info posted on and could be an area needing further investigation.

Secondly

Imagine someone saying.

Ray Dalio: "owning an asset worth $12 in 2012, that is worth more than $10,000 in 2020, doesn't protect my buying power".

There is a lingering question of whether owning assets denominated in fiat currencies can protect purchasing power or value in a post corona world. And whether investment in bitcoin/crypto could be a better investment decision. For reasons that have been discussed to death since this forum was founded.

Well, if he admitted that bitcoin is not useless then more and more people will know about bitcoin. Even in my country where bitcoin is not known by many.

Well, I do know that governments can only ban it in their own country or they can set up rules and try to regulate part of it as much as possible. If a government in a particular country should ban Bitcoin, that doesn’t mean that others are going to do the same as they did, as long as they see the need for it, they are going to allow it to stay as a legal asset.

Only his last comment is what I kind of agree with, but not that I fully agree with it, because I believe the main aim of government is to regulate it as of now. China might have decided to ban it by preventing people from being able to exchange Bitcoin for fiat, but other countries do the same.

Well, not everybody realize the truth behind lying under bitcoin. Many criticize bitcoin because of its votality. They said they could not believe an asset which easily lose its value in a short time.

However, bitcoin is not just about its value. It has advanced techonlogies, new innovation and the moreover, it gives people the ability to against the inflation. Do you like to be lost money day by day? The central banks and its fiat system are the ones conrols our economy system and pull out the inflation. You can hate bitcoin, but dont force other people to have the same opinion. We are wise enough to observe clearly that bitcoin is a heaven's gift

I don't know though, in a hindsight I'm thinking that Ray Dalio is secretly stashing bitcoin and he is just trying to put the spotlight on him as anti-bitcoin or something to create some FUD so that he can continue to accumulate more.

On the other hand, there are a lot of billionaires already going in public telling that they have invested on bitcoin. So if Ray continue his hard line stance (assuming he hasn't bought anything), he will be late when the train leaves. While his fellow billionaires are making good money, Ray is left in the dust. So it's his call to continue his negative believed in bitcoin.

Ray Dalio is an exceptional investor. He has been successful for so many years. I love his books and try to follow is investment recommendations when ever possible. But even the best investors can't be 100% right of the time. In my opinion what makes the difference between a good and a great investor is the ability to adapt to new information. Maybe bitcoins didn't make sense to him when they were created, but he reviewed his position and changed his opinion. Overall great guy.

That is quite a backward approach. For one, before forming an opinion of a new asset or technology, one should have done sufficient research on it, to understand the fundamentals behind it. And the idea of forming a negative opinion with little actual knowledge and then asking to be convinced otherwise is also backward. If you're going to ask for opinions, you should be open minded enough to assimilate them without prejudice.
Maybe that's a part of being conservative; Putting the perceived risks above the potential reward.

Imagine he puts in a small amount as the price is at $18k+ and comes back to check in the next 5-10 years

Well everyone makes mistake and people that are pessimistic like Ray Dalio usually makes one so it's just very normal thing for him and whether he admits he was wrong or not is not relevant for the market really although he's hedge fund manager, still the market shows despite his statement crypto still growing.
Also, this is why people should not makes such overconfident statement because big chance you are wrong.

What does he mean in turning bitcoin into a material things? Does he mean bitcoin banknotes? Where we will have banknotes with value of 0.001 BTC, 0.005 BTC, 0.01 BTC? I think such thing won't happen because the main idea behind the bitcoin isn't to be a material thing and at the same time even if anyone decides to print such banknotes, why the hell people will look at it as a valuable thing? It's not the nature of bitcoin and it will exist the way it is right now, in digital space. And no one is enough authoritative to seriously start printing of btc banknotes, it's the thing that can be banned as easy as ABC.

His attitude was a typical example of fear of the unknown, the same kind that Warren represents. We're going to have so much fun reading about all these people change their mind and admit to being wrong pretty much like JPMorgan's CEO did. Can't blame them really. For old investors who dabbled in centralized fiat-based markets for decades, it's can be hard to understand decentralized systems like Bitcoin.

This is why I prefer Ray Dalio. He is different from other super-investors like Warren Buffet: always thinking out of the box about longer investment horizons. I follow him on a few social media and I always find his long posts quite interesting. Of course he was wrong about bitcoin, but he’s also honest enough to admit it and ask for directions.

I think I saw his thread on Twitter, and also gave some intriguing answers when bullied by fellow bitcoiners.
You can check it out here:
https://twitter.com/raydalio/status/1328731042690306048?s=21

He is rich already, so his attitude is understandable. It's like trying to sell a business plan or HYIP to rich people. "Convince me, and I'll think about it."

True, conservativism in financial management is about risk preference. Although he manages mutual funds that consist of stocks, the risk is nowhere near the crypto risk (from a non-believer standpoint).

5-10 years is a very long time, and anything can happen. I can't guarantee there will be no WW3 that destroys all living forms except cockroaches. LoL

He was wrong during that time because he is part of the group that opposes cryptocurrency adoption. But with Paypal coming into the picture, it's only now that investors in the finance industry started to consider BTC because it's becoming very legal in US. Central banks are forced to join the bandwagon already. It's safe to say that the government will not outlaw this currency.

it is very interesting that for the past couple of weeks i keep hearing pretty much the same news that someone is either saying something positive about bitcoin or are changing their previous stance. but the more interesting part is that all of those that i have seen were "hedge fund managers".

these hedge fund companies may be receiving a lot of request these days from their investors to buy bitcoin or diversify into bitcoin as bitcoin has proven to be so strong and most importantly an excellent hedge against the strained economy while other assets such as stocks will be struggling in the coming years.

What does he mean by becoming material?  Bitcoin is already a commodity of value.  Yes, I accept it too, its volatility is very high and it must be of a standard to be used in daily life.  but I think governments will see them as rivals under the ban on Bitcoin.

Yes and Ray Dalio was wrong.  Previously I had the same opinion as him, I thought that governments wouldn't accept Bitcoin because it would make the Mafia organization stronger.
I just did not expect that the major countries of the world were more important economically than politics, they were materialists and thus allowed Bitcoin to be legally traded in their own countries.  So, I was wrong to be too subjective in the credibility of government ;D

We've heard a lot of people like him talking about bitcoin and just think it has no chance of being a good asset in the future while if they just look at how the market is greatly changing, they will just be there sitting as the price boost up into new heights. I am used to these kinds of people and it is great that he accepted his mistake, hope he considers investing too.

So from the statements he has made I can see that he was afraid of the volatility of Bitcoin. It’s normal with people who are just getting to know about Bitcoin, they will always be afraid of the volatility of the Bitcoin. And that third statement he made about bitcoin not being good as store of value because it can drop at any moment and the money invested will lose value, well he’s right.

But that’s not much of a problem, anyone that’s getting into cryptocurrency should know better, they should know that they have to be careful.

I can't get hold of the "bitcoin is too volatile" argument.
IS bitcoin volatile? are you (a generic "you") serious?
Look at TSLA.
TSLA is going to be added to the Standard&Poor's 500 index soon.
TSLA volatility is higher than bitcoin volatility, yet nobody gives a fuck about this.
Actually everyone says TSLA volatility is actually a success as they are celebrating the success of the company measured by the stock price. Stock price that could get there only because the share price is volatile!

There will be a lot of people who will come out and say that they are wrong about crypto, this is just the start. We are just 10-11 years old right now, think about what bitcoin can do in another 10-20 years and all of these people will be forced to get involved after a while.

Government ban is not needed because there are tons of governments all around the world who already made laws about crypto and how it could be considered and taxed, which is enough. People still go around talking about how "what happens if USA bans it!!" but the reality is USA allows it, NY has bitlicense and Ohio literally takes crypto payment for crypto related taxes. So, do not be worried about governments, they are not going to suddenly change their mind 180 degrees and decide to ban it all together.

I am wondering how people predict that bitcoin will be useless in the future, can't they watch the fluctuation of bitcoin's market?.
This isn't new I've seen numerous people taking a negative idea for bitcoin and deceive the clients and later they accompany the apologies.
Anyway glad to hear he admin his mistake and now there are huge chances that bitcoin will rise more.
I wish the government additionally accept his mix-up and make it legitimate for their people

The reason that guy agreed to correct himself during the time of bullish run sounds to me like he got some bitcoins himself and is waiting for a rally.

1. You can engage in p2p exchange very easily without intermediary plus we do have many new sites emerging selling stuff which can be purchased in Bitcoins

2. The Volatility does make it an excellent option when it comes to trading and thus the limited supply is all +++ ..

3. Government is themselves getting benefited from the crypto businesses like online casinos. They don't want to ban Bitcoins, they can't, they want to regulate them.

He is already a billionaire, he doesnt have to correct himself at this point.  If I was of that age and status, I'd just go fishing and resign the money to simple gold or other boring assets as right or wrong he is fine forever.
 Obviously he has a personal and also professional curiosity as to the nature of this thing that was supposed collapse long ago.   Generally he is a smart guy worth listening to and he knows dollar is a failed standard where as Buffet wont admit anything dramatic unfolds.
I dont think he means physical but that governments enforce laws, so contracts to demand or secure BTC would rely on a government in his view.   If its not legal whats its worth and says BTC is gone as soon as the printing press of FIAT finds itself challenged, its not an unreasonable thought process.   The main mistake made by multiple billionaires of this type is in not recognising or accepting how technology might alter the landscape they previously profited on, Buffet has admitted he cant consider modern tech as he cant value it so that might be the closest we get to an admission.

Some bitcoin maximalist may think the billionaire is anti bitcoin, but Ray Dalio has said the truth many has ignored.
No one should expect bitcoin and government mini fight has ended and hence they may approve bitcoin ITF.
There are some aspects bitcoin hasn't really been friendly with, volatility is one of the sweetest thing in cryptocurrency as you can easily make profits but one can easily make you loss all capital ( fortune included).
There are some regulations that aren't really friendly to Btc in some countries and we do overlook them, they needed to be table out so as to know the next thing bitcoin and its futures.

I have the same feeling also that he is also investing in crypto, maybe not only bitcoin but other alts like eth. So he is being open-mind about this. Maybe, he has limited information regarding the availability of crypto in terms of merchants or shops that are already accepting crypto as part of their payment system. But with the move of PayPal accepting crypto in their system, more people will be oriented with crypto.

I think so because Ray Dalio would not believe bitcoin if he had not tried it or even other altcoins. He is also a crypto investor for sure.  Bitcoin  already exist and use for many years that's why those people who didn't believe before, they now understand and use it.

I think everyone can argue about bitcoin, and there are some other people who support and deflect bitcoin. So my response is casual and doesn't really care about it, because everyone will always argue if the truth is still uncertain. for example in bitcoin which will be legalized by governments around the world or not.

Those who had bought when they thought it is going to have a big demand in future today will be making profits and enjoying it. Other were against it and still against are audience who anyways will be fumed now considering they have missed this bull ride and their anger would be more in negative way itself rather than accepting it. Those who accept and move on are the ones who have learned it.