Bitcoin Forum

As I posted last month, Institutional Money would change everything for BitCoin, and make the price go up to the levels you guys have been talking about for many years...  Here is how BitCoin goes from what seems a high price of 40,000 now to 100,000 very quickly   :o :o :o

How Bitcoin Gets To $100,000 Next: Morgan Stanley Boosts Stake In Microstrategy, Opening The Floodgates

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-bitcoin-gets-100000-next-morgan-stanley-boosts-stake-bitcoin-fanatic-microstrategy

I am wondering why they didnt just buy BTC directly themselves instead of investing in Microstrategy. I am assuming is because they "can't yet buy bitcoin directly" perhaps. Microsttraegys price right now quickly mimics BTC pretty much since a large part of their holdings are BTC itself. Its pretty much like a Bitcoin ETF pretty much that is not OTC like GBTC.

Either way its always bullish when Morgan Stanley or JP Morgan give these bullish predictions when a few years back they were all going to say that Bitcoin will fail. I think the only institution which didn't say anything negative about BTC were Goldman Sachs. Their old CEO just said he is neutral towards bitcoin because he doesn't quite fully understand it. The rest all labelled it a scam and moved on. When futures launched back in late 2017, many of them shorted BTC at $20K and later bragged about taking profits at $6K or $3K.

It's basically an ETF with no expense ratio, despite having a professional custodian. GBTC charges 2%. Even when a Bitcoin ETF does get approved, it'll probably be in the 0.5%-1% range (wild guess). GLD, the largest physically-backed gold ETF, charges 0.4%.

I can see the appeal.

Lots of funny comments there. "Bitcoin they can control. Hell, they can even pull the plug. Blah blah Blockchain" ::)

---

Might incentivize others to do similar things. This amount of interest in an unsaturated market is practically begging to be captured, even if corporate bodies are concerned primarily with the bottom line.

This cycle is going to be a super cycle, I think $100,000 is conservative for the top to be honest. It’s going to be like an absolute avalanche of money flowing into bitcoin once true FOMO starts.

I believe as long as wall street keeps pouring money in, the price has to go up, because there is limited amount of bitcoins available in the market so they have to increase the price. Think about it this way, grayscale owns 2.5% of ALL bitcoins that will ever exist, and we allowed them to do that only with 10-15 thousand dollars, hell even at 40 thousand dollars that is not cool because from now on just one place owns 2.5% of all bitcoins there will ever be, and bigger portion of what we have right now.

So I would say if wall street gets in, we need to make it a lot more expensive so that they do not buy even more, at the end a bunch of companies will own 10% of all bitcoins and that would be bad for traders and it would be bad for using bitcoin as currency too, we need to make it work for buying and selling things as well. So I hope they do get in, but I also hope price goes up a lot faster.

Bitcoin at $100k sounds unrealistic. There is an opposite opinion also. Roubini, Scaramucci and other economists warn that Bitcoin bubble is going to burst.

I admire you for going to the comment section there, ZH has a whole crowd that repeats the same mantra over and over the only difference is changing the things that are going to go bankrupt with the subject of the title. If they ever post a story about a kitten the first comment will be that the cat is going to die for sure. I've always wondered how mad can you be at the word to relentlessly post there that this and that is doomed and we're all going to suffer once their predictions come true, it's not funny anymore.


Look at the bright side, thanks to Grayscale you to sell the coins for $35k apiece.
If it weren't for them we would be waiting another year for the ETF mirage to tickle a bit of enthusiasm and nothing more, we've had 10 years to buy under 10, sorry to say but many of us won't be able to wait for another 10.


Roubini, how many predictions has he got right after 2008?

I can see your enthusiasm and I share it.

However,  we are in ath again. This is not the best moment to be brave, but the best moment to be cautious.
Be brave when there is blood in the streets.

https://www.varchev.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/wb-618x348.jpg

Nice way to pivot.

Yeah, I keep asking myself prior if we are going to hit $50k, where are the money should come?

I guess we all have the answers now, its' those institutional investors and big companies who suddenly shifted all their assets to bitcoin, thus propelling the price to a level we haven't seen before.

6 digits might be possible in the next 12-24 months specially if there will be big players entering the market. Bitcoin can't be ignore now.

Yes agree about the super cycle. $100k or a bit higher might be a temporary top sometime later this year. If we're at the start of a super cycle I think it'll last several years and be broken up into a few parts, with several month corrections between each part. Participants in the market will need time to feel like things aren't going up too fast, which is the whole point of corrections - at some point participants get scared and the price needs to cool off for participants to feel like it's safe for it to keep going up. It might go over $100k then go back to $60k-$80k for a few months this year before moving up further. $100k is I think very conservative for the top before another major long term bear market, but I don't think it's terribly conservative for the near future. If this is a super cycle $100k is a decent 2021 prediction (granted it'll probably go at least a bit higher than that this year) but I could easily see any bear market lasting longer than a handful of months being several years away and $100k long gone by the time we get to it. If institutions pile in gradually for the next 3-5 years for example, allowing any long bear market to occur, the price could easily be $500k before we see any long term bear market.

Or probably broken into 2 part 3 years cycle, or maybe one big super fast rally - 6 year cycle. And the narrative of bitcoin changes, I don't think that the 4 year cycle will hold through. Speculations points to 6 digits mark at the end of 2021 and then another 3 year cycle taht can balloon the price as high as $300k or even more. Just imagine though, seeing bitcoin at $200k and them a 50% dip after at $100k, and saying bitcoin has failed, Lol, that will be epic.

Yeah I think institutions getting in will kill the four year cycle now. Four year cycle worked like clockwork when halvings led to supply constraints which led to price going back to ATH which lead to retail frenzy which led to bubble which led to crash, and repeat. But now that institutions are getting in, and this will likely continue for years as they build their positions and more and more join as the more conservative ones get comfortable with Bitcoin as it continues to grow, there just is not going to be any longer term bear market. Don't know how exactly a supercycle will play out, but yeah I imagine what we are seeing now is the start of a multi-year bull market that completely disregards the 4 year cycle which should be ending late this year.

How are these institutions buying in such large quantities and all.the governments are just sitting and watching this. The pension funds are expected to be the safest investment investing these funds in something like bitcoin which variates more than 30% in a day is not really a wise decision unless consented by the real owners of the money.
Can't agree more but I don't really think Warren Buffet is the right person for a trading advise. He is pretty intelligent at value investing and therefore he would never invest in Bitcoin as it's impossible for him to derive it's value.

Well the institutions aren't buying in large quantities compared to what THEY have. They are just buying in large quantities compared to what is normally bought in Bitcoin. They have enormously more money than the money than the entire market cap of bitcoin. Of the very small amount of institutions that have invested so far, most of them are going to be under 1% invested in Bitcoin so far, and the majority of the rest less than 5%. Places like Microstrategy are an outlier. For a pension or investment fund, putting 1% or a few % in the best growth asset in the world is a safe bet long term. If they are like buying futures contracts trying to guess what the price will be on a certain day, sure that's dumb, but now they are actually investing in Bitcoin, not just betting on its price, so that is safe for them.

And yeah, when it comes to Bitcoin, Warren Buffet's advice is completely worthless. He is very good at a specific type of investing and that is value investing of companies. He's not even good at valuing tech companies as he basically missed the first two decades of the tech boom, so he is an extremely poor judge when it comes to valuing Bitcoin. That said, his advice quoted above is "be brave when there is blood in the streets" is good advice in general, as anyone who bought at the bottom of the bear market knows. But using that quote to say Bitcoin is risky right now, ignores what we all know about bitcoin bull markets, and that is that they go tremendously higher than what we've seen these past few months, and we are still in the early stages of the current bull run.

Yes it's true actually value investing is pretty different from fundamental analysis It entails valuation models using various methodologies and assumptions and every new valuation is an absolutely new thing in itself that can be completely different from the previous one. So I don't really blame Warren Buffet for that he is a master in his niche. Coming to the valuation of Bitcoin how actually do you value Bitcoin? It's not a company? It's not even an asset technically? It's actually a currency and a currency can be measured using it's flow. But every increasing dollar BTC is becoming more prone to scaling issues isn't it?

Talking about Institutional buying I think you are right it isn't that much compared to their total portfolio. Moreover I read an article on coindesk that day which suggested that most of the bitcoin buying is being done OTC. Here is the chart:

https://static.coindesk.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/photo_2020-12-18-12.12.35-1200x898.jpeg

In other words, an S-curve. So this is the basic idea:

https://i.imgur.com/eGhJ3nl.png

The first 3 bubble cycles took place inside the red box. They're just tiny bumps in the road before the rocket takes off and goes into the vertical swing of the S-curve.

That's why $100K might seem like an extremely low price just a few years from now. The next phase may be much faster and more violent than the 2010-2020 phase.

Yeah, I don't think I've seen as much enthusiasm during a rally before. Sure, the predictions aren't as ridiculous as they were in 2017, but that's actually scarier to see people really get serious about 6-figure numbers. Fun, and scary at the same time.

Good thing most of us are DCA-ing. Takes out the courage factor somewhat.

That is the point of big companies as well, when they have 10 trillion dollars of peoples money and they end up putting 20 billion dollars into crypto, that is not really that much money to them. Do you know how much 20 billion dollars worth of bitcoin will be? That would be half a million bitcoins, grayscale already has that, and that is why I think it is quite obvious that another company doing that, and another doing that, it will be impossible.

It would be more expensive, because price would go over 40k, which is where we get involved, because you can always buy as much as you want, you do not have to go in 20+ billion dollars, you can get in 20 dollars as well if you want, and that is how you are taking place. For example, if you get in right now and all those corporations get in later, that would be profitable for you thanks to what they do.

You need to consider that fact that, it will take a few 20% days to reach that people. If BTC is at $40K, then it would only take 20% days to reach $100K. And look at how many days in the past BTC had 10-15% days. So its definitely possible. Look at how fast it reached $40K when it broke $20K.

If you go to Deribit which is the largest bitcoin options platform. They actually have $100K,$200K,$300K,and $400K call options which expire at the end of the year. And you would think "Who in the world would buy a $400,000 bitcoin call option that expires in 11.5 months?" Well there is currently a $2500 price for that call option and open interest is almost 100 contracts.

Seems there are people out there that think that 6 figure prices are possible and they are putting money behind it.

Not being a party pooper but right now we need to break through the 40k resistance before going to this number. It will be difficult at this moment because people will be selling their coins along the way as the market prices increase.

I am not sure what cycle it will be but people are reacting as if 100k is a lot more than what we can achieve quickly and I do not get why. I get that going higher would require a lot more money than previously needed, but if we can do x12 in a year, we damn sure could do x2.5 at higher prices as well.

The amount of money needed for bitcoin to go from 3.6k price (which it reached during march dump) to 40k is about x11 to x12 depending on where you put the peak, and that is a huge sum of money needed (over 10 billion just from grayscale alone) as well, now from 40k to 100k we need only x2.5 increase and obviously it is a lot harder x2.5 increase, for example going from 10k to 25k is not the same as going from 40k to 100k, I get that. However at the end of the day we are comparing 4k to 40k increase to 40k to 100k increase so it should be a bit more possible.

Hahaha. They do not know who HardFacts is, and what he has been FUDDING about Bitcoin, while shilling Gold.

To all, he’s like KwukDuck, remember him? The same person who FUDs when Bitcoin is surging, and hypes when it’s crashing. He likes to buy high, sell low. 8)

Wind FURY does not like anyone that disagrees with him.   Read my post, you can either agree or disagree, that is up to you.    What you should never do is listen to a guy that try's to use EMOTION rather than facts to make a point ....

You know, I figured that when big companies like MSTR and/or hedge funds started getting into bitcoin, they'd be doing it through derivatives on Bakkt or the like.  I was really surprised that MicroStrategy straight out bought all that bitcoin, and yes, all of that institutional money has driven the price of bitcoin to its new ATH. 

It sure as hell wasn't the little investors this time, because there have been so many people out of work that buying crypto is a luxury many can't afford.  Now let's just keep our fingers crossed that these institutional whales don't decide to dump all their bitcoin all at once.

This is what a simple minded fool would say.
...
Seriously, why would anyone listen to such an uninformed, dumb fool that likes to talk about things he obviously knows nothing about ? ^{reference (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5232277.msg54088132#msg54088132)}

---

I wish I had bought BitCoin at 1 cent when I first learned about it    :'( :'( :'( :'(    But that ship has sailed, and will never be back.  You need to in early on a Ponzi Scheme to profit greatly from it.    I will NOT, NOT, NOT be buying bitcoin for long term at any price, I think its value is going down to near zero in the long term.  If you win, I will be man enough to tell you that you are right and apologize to everyone... ^{reference (https://ninjastic.space/post/54181632)}

Editors note: HardFacts subsequently edited its old posts in a pathetic attempt to deviate from its "utterly stupid" statements.
Fortunately, we have archived posts so we can still enjoy his ad hominem escapades. ;D