Bitcoin Forum

The first two runs ended exactly one year after the mining reward halving.
E.g. December 2016 => Dec. 2017

IMO it will be the same this time, May 2020 => May 2021

So we shall assume the price the BTC will have in May will be the maximum for this cycle?
Should we sell in May?

First thing first, the 2016 halving was in July and not December, so this means BTC topped 1.5 years later, but anyway, why the measure from the halving? why not the previous top or the last market bottom? or the U.S election for that matter.?

I think timing your trade to a given month or an exact static price is indeed a terrible idea, we are in a bull market, one easy way to minimize your risk would be selling your way up slowly, maybe sell 5% at every 5k increment? by doing this your average selling price would be somehow reasonable, but if you wait till May and we top 2 days before that? or if you wait for 100k and we top at 97k? what is going to happen? you will be waiting for the top for another 4 years.

Alternatively, if you know how to read the charts, there will be signs for when the bear arrives, so maybe learn a bit of technical analysis?

We know that crypto can fuck up technical analysis but this is way more better on having or basing up to these rather than on making blind calls towards your position.

I agree on the word on getting or having that 5k increment with this you would really be having some goal on getting profits and not totally waiting up for the peak.

Most of the time, emotions do really set in with this kind of situation. Bull run ending on May? Who knows? This would always be a common question on when
this run will end.

• The inaccuracy was corrected by @mikewith.
• You can get more details for past halving days and future halving days. Check Bitcoinblockhalf.com (https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/)

Crypto market is not stock market and you can not apply all rules from stock market. Think of it in the meaning of capital operations. If investors take profit with gold and see opportunities in other markets such as stock, real estate or crypto market, they will move their capital a new one.

Same goes if stock investors sell in May, what they will go next, Gold, Bitcoin? With the outflows from exchanges and institutional investments, I expect more capital from stock to bitcoin market. It's not only because of May 2021 (if there will be sell off in May in stock market) but also in a long term.

you are already making a couple of mistakes about your timing of the previous bitcoin bull markets and its halving, some of which was already pointed out.

another mistake you are making is that the bull run cycles aren't starting from the halving, they start from the time the bear market of the last cycle ends. and the last bear market ended in 2020 so we are barely inside the beginning of the next bull market.

another thing to consider is the size of the bull market so far. each cycle the size is growing. that has been true about all the previous 4 major bull markets. this time the size has to be a lot bigger than the previous ones due to all the institutional investor hype and FOMO buying of bitcoin they are doing.
so anything below $500k is not going to be the end of this bull run. and that level can not be reached as soona as May, it needs at least this whole year and maybe even last until next year. i wouldn't be surprised to see the next final ATH in February 2022.

Factual errors aside, the bull market will end when the market wants to. The bitcoin market isn't going to be like "oh crap, it's been X months already, time to transform into a bear now!"

As per usual, in the end, where the markets will go will all end up going to depend on supply and demand, not with dates and time spans.

I don't think so if I could make it on may, since my asset isn't that big and I still look forward for another dip to take another chance for bitcoin to hold. Regrets always happens in the first place, because of failing to hold my coins those old golden days. Honestly I can't turn back those times, so I need to to hope for another good chances and fulfill my dreams all over again.

Or you are very doubt about saying it will happen in May 2022.

Everything can still change even if you get similarities from history. For most of the time, I just saw how institutional investor were attracted to bitcoin and they bought it in bulk. It will be a different cycle and bitcoin has got huge support from them (institutional investor) so the bull market will continue.

I agree, technical analysis will help us to get sign of correction or the bear market comes.

Maybe it will end in may or it can go long too.
Recently Elon has also invested in btc so i don’t think it will end easily.
The last one last for 1.5 years
So i think this will go 2 years atleast. 3/4 month extra for Musk's investement.
1.5 billion $ is not a small amount.

Too early to die out.. there lots to see since the manipulators of this market and all of us benefiting from it, have lots to earn.

But that doesn't mean we need to set a date/month to it.

It depends how and when and at what pace will BTC continue

No one can say categorically that this is the time it will end but it's timing dosent match with the halving cycle. You will know when the run begins to end and bears fully in control as different things and news will begin to happen and people be scare and forced to sell at loss.

One thing I know is that you can never time the markets, moreso that a lot of companies are still adding fuel to the fire that is bitcoin's rally. There's no set time-frame for these buy-ins, and the more companies publicly disclose their bitcoin holdings, the more other companies would be convinced to follow suit. When is that going to stop? No one knows.

A 1-year time-frame for the bull run is quite correct, though current market conditions state otherwise.

No one can say for sure how long the bull run will last. Maybe this prediction of yours can be true. Now the crypto market is in a position where only positive news is seen around and this is having a positive effect on the market as well. If the bad news doesn't come in the name of Bitcoin then we might see a longer bull market.

Now it depends entirely on the bulls how they want to see the market.

too much of a precaution that you ignored elon muck that he just recently sent $1.5B, he definitely will lose a lot. we are all cautious really that we get ready before the bear market starts we have prepared to turn out profits to stablecoin.

bee on the lookout for another big bad news like regulations or SEC against USDT or anything that will pull the price down, it could be a sign of bull market halting.

Exactly my thinking. Why set the benchmark to the halving and not the previous bull run from 2017, or any other metric @mikeywith pointed out?

This is only speculation and nothing more. No body knows for sure when the bull run will end, so don't panic post as people can take you up on that. Just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

On the other hand, if you wanted to come up with a prediction, technical and financial analysis is welcomed ;)

I hope you analyze the market well. You cannot just compare the events after the halving and how the market runs in the current situation. Remember, as time progresses by, the adoption of crypto and Bitcoin increases. Hence, there would always be a chance of a constant increasing price, but might take it slow soon. Honestly, just by looking at the Bitcoin chart, No one could expect what could be the resistance in this bullish market. Also count the popularity it continuously gain just by being hyped on social media. Hence, May, June, July, etc., bull run still depends on how would the people behave on the market's movement. Particularly those hug investors whom can subtly affect the movement of the price.

I think that the market in general does not have a specific date, it is very unpredictable for something, the Bitcoin market is the king of volatility and makes millionaires overnight when they make the corresponding investment and has enough patience to obtain benefits. It may be that some patterns are met many times, but this market is different, perhaps in the stock market or in other markets these cycles are met. I don't think this will end in May, I think that more investors will come to the market and the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise.

I think this time the conditions are different. Like we are seeing more and more big companies adopt crypto which is good and will pump more money into the market. Also printing money cause of the pandemic will affect that normal people put some money into crypto cause it will be much safer than keeping money in bank in coming years.

I am no expert, but there is something I notice is over time the bitcoin volatility become lower which means that maybe we won't even have any bear market anymore. It's not "inevitable" (took from elong).
Or maybe the bear market won't impact the price of btc compared to usd because of inflation.

It depends.

Speaking in the short-term, the current bull run is created most by hype and speculations, and it will end up soon.

BUT if more companies and institutional investors follow the Tesla hype and FOMO, things will go wild for at least another couple of months.

If that really happened and the current bullish market conditions persist throughout 2021, it would be very pleasant. Many ATH altcoins will be reached especially Bitcoin ATH. The market cycle will probably be different from previous years and of course the current cycle becomes the most stressful cycle and becomes the new ATH cycle is formed. All have hope for a better market.

So OP is basing on historical information? Some events might affect it such as halving or time constraint for some investors schedule but also we should consider the upcoming potential global crisis that is not anticipated. For example the covid19 which suddenly crash the market really affect the marketcap. Who knows what other news might lead to another disaster like this.

As to events happening and repeating, it could have that same timeline, but there are so many variables to consider before arriving at that conclusion. It's still best to do it continuously and maybe cash out/sell some of your stacks incrementally because you will never know what could happen next.

For this reason, I believe that the correct approach is to be patient and check the charts. Maybe you will see a sign in which it will turn the tides.

We are still in that hype moment, and maybe in a few weeks, there could be another noise that could impact the prices with all the coins.

You can sell bitcoin anytime you want, without considering to sell in May or not because only you that will know when the right time to sell bitcoin. If you think that the bull run will end in May, you can sell it before May, so you can take profit before the bull run ends. I can only suggest that you sell your bitcoin whenever the price reaches a high price because that will give you the biggest profit, no matter if that will happen in this month, next month or May 2021. We don't know when the bull run and the bear run happen, and we can only prepare for that and always monitor the market, so we can know when we should sell.

The question is, of course, difficult ... After all, based on your analytics, I don't really want to believe in this, I think that the maximum growth of bitcoin will be by the winter of 2021, and it can also be affected by a pandemic in the world, everything can change at any time.

Would you Please stop comparing or connecting the what happens this halving to the past halving ?

Look the Market back then seems to be manipulated and big whales are dictating the price of The Bull run, they Push Bitcoin first then Dump to push altcoin and this same scenario over the years.

But look at the market now , do this looks like still manipulated ? or this is really the right way how the market goes? supply and demand by the rules and not because some Individuals that has tons of funds do the action.

Now the market is very different from what it was in 2017. A large capital came to the market, which finally believed in bitcoin. It is the presence of institutional investors that will eventually make the cryptocurrency market look like a securities market. And as a result, we will not see such deep corrections as it was previously.

The answer is....we don’t know. Nobody knows even if you are very good in charts, candlesticks, etc. No trader is perfect, especially in predicting prices because we cannot control the market. But for me, I think we may have a slight pullback in April tax deadline. However, I might be wrong because of the market’s maturity and the continued interests of well-established firms like Tesla, Mastercard, etc., and financial institutions.

Indeed, we couldn't precisely predict when this bull run will going to end. How i really wish what will going to  happen was only a little price correction and i hope it wouldn't go down as dumped as it was happen after the ATH of 2017. But i guess this bull run will still running as long as investors are more likely attracted to bitcoin which we already have now Elon Musk that was expectedly attracting more people and now make cryptocurrency hype especially bitcoin.

This is not the right approach to estimate the end of bull market and sell on whatever the price is in May. No one knows exactly how when this bull market will end. Currently the bitcoin price is only 2x from its all time high and therefore as per the previous history we are no where near the peak of this bull run.
Bull market may end few months before or after december 2021 but only time will tell.

market cannot move up always so we can see any correction at any time and market can be bleed any moment but if hype keeps and good news keep coming so bull run can stay for several weeks also.

Exactly but we have also to keep an eye on news such as crypto ban draft bill news because such news can dump market at any moment.

market correction when there is a desire to sell or there are regulatory issues from the government...
can not be sure whether there will be a correction in May, all we are doing is comparing this year with last year's. now that many large companies have bought Bitcoin, it is very unlikely they will immediately sell their Bitcoin in a short time.

I hope the bull run will not end in May because with many companies start to invest in bitcoin, it can delay the bear trend to comes and it can give more time to the bull trend to stay at the market. But yes, we do not know when it will end, but before that is happening, we need to make as much profit as possible, so when the bear trend comes, we already make a big profit. If we can make a big profit, we can buy back the potential coins at a low price because when the bear trend comes, the price will be at a lower price.

Well, I can't deny that I was like OP when thinking about how the market works since there are times when history repeats itself but after learning some technical analysis. I can say that it's not really a planned or a coincidence that the market before is moving like there's a pattern it's all about the factors that would change the outcome of every market.

While looking at the current volume of Bitcoin and comparing it from the past bull run there is no sign yet of a bearish market. Once you know how to look at those volumes that is a good way to know if bear market is coming.

Unfortunately there are way too many people who look at the past and try to make a decision for the future, I do not know why they are doing that and what could be the reason for it, but there are a lot of people who do it and that is the problem. Obviously speaking we are in a situation where people are not going to make too much profit from something this easy, if you just look at the past and predict the future and almost always right (or at least more right then wrong) all you have to do is keep buying by comparing today with yesterday and you are going to keep making a profit and nobody would lose money.

However since that is not possible at all, we know that past is not indicative of the future, so by looking at the past you can't decide on the future however people do not really understand it and they make posts like this to see what others think.

It's not wise to compare this bull run with past bulls runs. This time there are different types of things happening. My personal opinion is that we just started with big companies investing in crypto world. With that we can only imagine the new highs which we will achive this time. Bull run will last much longer this time.

If you need money then selling in May is good but if not, then wait for another months because bitcoin is having the possiblity to reach until $100k this year. Don't miss that bigger chances, and if you ignore that potentiality I guess regrets will affect your whole being. Always remember, we can't easily get over when it talks about finances.

There are chances it might who knows plus you made it your own conclusion I would just say maybe it can maybe it will not countless possibilities.

I don't know if you believe this but when a big company buys something there could be a chance others will follow before studying if it is okay that they would also see the potential.

As when it happens big companies invest and invest bitcoin will get a year and more bull run.


If bitcoin drops before or exactly in May the price value for bitcoin will decrease because people keep selling them by the time.

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I don't know how to say this but in particular, I am kind of having a 50 50 thought for me that the prediction would be really come true because it is a prediction after all no backup source saying that this would come true or it will become a reality. Maybe it could now as people and companies slowly studying how bitcoin could be a good investment for them.

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Well, it's not their fault fullhdpixel they just want to be safe, it is their way of making an assurance buying a currency. For sometimes you need to know the past but sadly you also need to learn about the present to make a 100% good decision, which you made a good point out of it.

To sum up what you said,...

I just want to add the past is in the past sometimes you need to focus on the present.

It cant be avoided for people not to look into the past when they are tending to make some analysis for the future but as said that it would really be different this time around if we do compare when it comes to adoption and acceptance after all the years that had passed.

Its up to you on how you do deal with the market and make money. Selling decisions will vary on each person thats why it will really depend.

There's indefinite time on when it would last and thats why its up to you on how you do make most of it. Dont wait for a certain month, as long you do see gains then sell out immediately.

History does sometimes repeat and influence, and you apply that because it has been experienced by bitcoin. However, I have not thought
that the month of May 2021 will be the peak of bitcoin and return to the bearish market. However, it is better that we are not too greedy to
get the top price if we are now already profiting from investing and trading bitcoin.

I think this bull will long live and whole 2021 will be the Year of cryptocurrency. Price of almost all coin including Btc,Eth,Dot,Egld and many others jumps to ATH. Doge coin also hit 0.07.

The theory could be different all the time. We can’t expect bitcoin to follow the older patterns since many factors are constantly changing with the time. I don’t think we can even closely compare 2021 bitcoin with that of 2016-17. That was completely different chapter with lack of popularity, little to no institutional investors back then, less influencers and different government authorities lacking the confidence in bitcoin or cryptography.

Today we see whole new era of factors influencing the bitcoin price movement. It’s been more and more popular today with highly recommended asset for investment. This will add up more investors along the way.

The result? Well, it would go up in the future or may stabilise at the current rate. May go down into hell prices but not for very long. In short its always unpredictable asset due ever changing factors around it.

benefit from the trade which is currently being increased, of course everyone is expected.
but I also appreciate your opinion that don't be too greedy when you get profits and still hope for higher prices. but we cannot stop people from looking for opportunities constantly because people's character is clearly very different and it is unlikely that what we tell them will be accepted.
in fact, your goal is right and educate so that greed can be inversely proportional when in practice it can actually be detrimental.

About that the month of May 2021 is the peak of bitcoin, until now no one can confirm it correctly and only estimates. If you look at the first and second halving of the end of the increase in November and December, whether it will be the same or even earlier is also not sure.

This is what I have observe almost coins are up trend which is suprising to crypto users. In doge coin a lot hype happening but with regards in bull run in my opinion it will take long this year. Many coins had rise in the market so lucky to those who are strong hands because they are gaining huge profit already.

We don't know how long it will survive, but based on the recent investment by Tesla owner, many other institutions are showing a lot of interest in cryptocurrency investment and everything we should wait and see, most of the active development coins are increasing the prices and reaching to their
ATH easily.

First of all, you don't ask strangers when to sell your Bitcoin, because it's yours and you're the one who should decide whether to sell it or not. But if you're doing to to get everyone's opinion to gives you assurance, please stop it. No one knows the exact time of when will be the market enter bearish trend again, or will it continue to climb up? it's like asking the price prediction accurately.

Like what somebody already mentioned here, probably you should start learning technical analysis to give assurance to yourself on when to sell your Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrency, because that's more productive and profitable in the long run.

I think the same as both of you. This bullish trend will continue to rise, and many coins will have the time to make a new ATH besides bitcoin. The coin that she mentions can have more chances to increase, especially bitcoin, and maybe bitcoin price will create another new ATH. Dogecoin can have another time to grow, but I do not think that will easy because dogecoin already made ATH yesterday, so maybe the price will increase someday.

Trading purely based on your assumption will definitely lead to big disasters. You cannot predict the timing of cycle of price fluctuations just from past history. If you have any technical analysis to find out where market will turn up then you may proceed. Moreover all technical analysis are providing only the price ranges not the timelines. I mean you cannot make your trading on timing based but only on price ranges because technical analysis provide only signals on price levels.

I guess this is the thing where most traders are slipping down and makes mistakes. They believe into their own assumptions and based on their emotions they do trade and not as per technical.

Much better to stop assuming because, in reality, none of these assumptions will happen. BTC will drop by..., pumps by...I actually not listening to this because in the first place, all of these changes are inevitable and it comes anytime.

If someone knows what will happen by tomorrow or by the following days, it is just like we are manipulating the market but because we are decentralized, it remains unpredictable no matter if you are Elon Musk that could easily manage to hypes or even to dump the market.  Will it end in May? IDK

I never think this will continue like 2016-2017 because 2017 cryptocurrency market and 2021 crypto currency market are not the same. Now you know Elon mask has invested billion billion dollar and Tesla also invested 1.5B$ here and they also continuing promotion this market everyday. So i think this year will be turning point for BTC and cryptocurrency market.

Trading purely based on indicators will not be helping you neither in the end, because unexpected things do happen. Emotions are definitely the number one reason why everyone loses money, because if you just make an assumption and call it the truth and make moves depending on that, you are going to end up losing a lot of money and unfortunately there are too many people who do that, don't know why they do it but they do it anyway.

I do not like investing into things without researching very very well, it has to be very careful and make you feel comfortable about it, if I do not know every single detail about the thing I am investing into, I am not going to end up going into it at all. Of course it is not going to be easy but I think it is going to be decent profit if I do that. All traders eventually becomes smarter about it though, that is what I think, they learn with their mistakes.

Basing on the history of Bitcoin aren't we?
Although it is a visible pattern, we're still not sure.
I would guess just ready for it but don't make hasty decision to sell. I would do the opposite by that date, because I am not yet sure if the history will surely repeat itself.

I believe the bull run for crypto should end either at the end of this year or early next. My conclusion is based on the cyclical development of the crypto market, and probably 2021 is the last year of the next cycle and as the history of the crypto has always reached new heights. Of course, this is not a 100% statement, but at the moment it is very similar to it. But no matter how it was, you must always be prepared for the fact that the price of the crypto can go down sharply. Remember the basic rules of investing and don't be greedy.

This time is different, the price of tokens are not going up cause of hype but most of it of adoption in real life. Many big companies investing more money flowing in it will all affect the price. And if you look generally market cap of crypto is not even close to one of stocks. So I'm really bullish.

Indeed, the situation is quite different from the previous Bullrun and to say that we can't expect to make such trend back again. I don't disclose the chance that Bullrun will stop sooner but can't tell when. And looking into the buying volume now, that something to tell that this gonna be a long bullish season.

I know that many people are now waiting for this to get over in order to buy back again but we can't stop people from buying, maybe we just have to enjoy watching the price moving high.

Most investors are waiting for the market to turn around and they will have the opportunity to buy coins at a lower price. And most of these investors sold their BTC too early, because they did not believe in such a growth of bitcoin and now they have to wait for this bull run to end.

Some retail investors are expecting that the competition between large institutional investors and whales will be sagging for them to hold a fair buy point. But raw materials, critical conditions and external influences like covid19 are supporting and studying steady psychology at the moment. Therefore, I consider this year's bull run to be a record.

I don’t know how much you’re investing in Bitcoin but I think it’s always best to be taking a bit profit from every day increase, that way you wouldn’t have much to worry about when the markets starts to fall to a lower level. Because, if you don’t do these things now, it can flip and start decreasing and you lose.

Although I do understand the reason a lot of people don’t want to cutting from the profits is because they don’t want to decrease their earnings if the price happens to still continue increasing, they want to be making all the profit that will come from that. But these same people will still regret when the market plummets because they haven’t taken anything from what they have gotten. It’s best to always plan yourself ahead depending on the risks.

I understand that people are hyped about the current situation but we should also look at the reason why and we should realize the problems there as well. For example, I think we will go up even more and I think we are going to do well, but why do I think that?

Because, I believe that bitcoin is bought by a lot of huge companies and that means we have extra billions of dollars going into bitcoin that didn't go in it before, and that allows the price to keep going higher and higher, also these people do not sell that easily so I believe it will not go down that easily as well when tens of billions of dollars worth of bitcoin is just sitting in some companies wallets.

However we have to see the problem as well, we are in a situation where companies own tens of thousands of bitcoins, so if one day they decide to sell, it could drop the price a lot.

No one actually knows about it , only crypto whales are the one who can dump it any time , if they want to pump they will till the end of 2021 , if they want to dump they can dump it anytime.

Whales usually dump after the pump, the rest of the market movement is a residual attempt to profit by smaller fishes. Whales would never be the ones who initiate a pump themselves. They manipulate the market to meet their demands. Like Musk trying to raise the DOGE and BTC prices like anything is an example of mainstream manipulation.

Many newbies are also getting FOMOed in. This is bad and I expect a lot of "I bought bitcoin at high price" - type of statements coming to this forum after a couple of months.

Because what has gone up has to come down but newbies fail to sell before it drops.

I don't think it's worth selling in May. In general, no one can predict this in advance. The market is unpredictable. The end of the bull market can happen any month - May, June, July ...
    It depends primarily on the Fed's printing press, not on the calendar. And the FRS machine will work until inflation rises to 2-3%. But in any case, one should not forget about risk management.

Naturally, there can be no infinite growth, and there will definitely be a decline for coins. And I am sure that such a reduction can reach 50%.  And now it is impossible to say for sure whether this price decline will be followed by a deeper correction or after that the Bull run will continue.

^ To tell you frankly, there is no one knows when is the right time to sell if you have a profit, you are good to sell but if not, keep holding.
It is possible that there is a decline of the price after a massive growth and that is right, there is no infinity growth of BTC price but we will always have a new ATH. Nevertheless, here is my point that BTC will not decline, there are too my institutional investors that keep adopting BTC and using it. It will not probably below $20k as a previous ATH, unless if these all big investors will sell their BTC at once.

Can we really predict the market that it will end in May? Though we observe the cycle trend on how it goes in the past month. Even others judgement there is a declined nor correction of the price it so happen price will bounce. But, this bull run no one knows when it will end so the most important thing is always secure your profit. Let be mindful that price is volatile and unpredictable.

I don't want to sell, because I never had such holding same with other traders. Maybe I wait for another bearish months but unfortunately, the chart situation wasn't having saturation because it continues to rise. Though some fluctuations happening but still recovery is fast, unlike the previous bullrun.

No one can totally state when this bull run would come into an end just like there no one who exactly knows the movement of the market and we cannot just base and depend on the past to state that same thing will happen over and over again which is like history repeats itself. We do not exactly know the future to come so what we can do now is just to get ready on the possibilities that anytime this bull run will come to its end so we must pay attention on being observant into the current situation of the market from time to time formulate future plans if ever we have been unexpected that things will not be in our favor or play in our favor. Just be ready so that we do know what to do when such time comes.

indeed since last year we have to admit that the price is unstable, especially in bitcoin, but the instability is towards a positive direction and always if there is a drastic downward correction it will also go up high, as long as that happens of course there is no problem to worry about.
Your question is also the same as I want to know, is it true that the predictions that are said will happen in May, because if you look at the situation so far, it is the opposite of that prediction.

it is clear that bitcoin is still moving towards positive and what makes a surprise is that altcoins starting from new coins are in the best ranks, and old coins can also grow with the best ranks, plus several altcoins reach their newest ATH.
it seems that this actually indicates the rise of altcoins or the year altcoins are able to thrive.

This is crazy if someone is able to predict exactly when this bull run will end, if the reference is market conditions in 2016-2017 then this bull run will not end in May but December, but it may be that current market conditions do not repeat history but longer or even more briefly.
so if you are afraid of losing the moment to sell at a high price then sell apart is a good choice.

Frankly speaking, this is not a "bull run". Lots of institutional investors are thinking to buy Bitcoin or many of them already bought it. I am saying this because the market is not crashing for Fake FUD news like the one which we saw the day before yesterday. If it was just the crypto community who were behind this run then we would have seen a significant drop even for a piece of fake news like that.

If the implementation of top alts continues like this then we might see a future where we use crypto rather than money. But we need more promising projects and better implementation.

looks like what you say is true, to predict exactly the bull run will end is certainly very difficult to be sure but usually will be seen from the past, but if the events of 2017 are known to be December, but whether the same will happen, not necessarily and not easy measure it and make sure it only predicts it.

but I don't think there is any need to be afraid of losing the moment to sell because there are no pointers like that, instead I see that there will be an increase in altcoins if we know there have been many surprises this past few weeks with altcoins, with many altcoins reaching ATH and rising sharply and reaching the point best in the altcoin rankings, even those that don't sound long time but can slide over the top ranks in altcoin.

Honestly NOBODY knows this. I know we like to talk about "it will happen" or "it won't happen" and anything in between but we have to realize that nobody knows this at all. It is obvious that we want to know this and we want to have answer for this but the reality is that we have no clue if this will happen or not. Which is why we are just trying to guess.

One thing I am certain is that even if the bear run starts in may, I won't leave because I am way in profit and there is nothing wrong with waiting for me, if it starts to drop in May, I will not get out and wait for the next increase because each increase is bigger than the other. Let's assume price falls from 50k to 20k, that means eventually "one day" it will be above 50k again, and I will be profiting from that, so I will wait for it to go up.

Since this is a long bull run, well, not literally long but longer than the previous run, so I guess if the same trend is going to happen, we will also see a long bear market, and that time, I'm not sure it's still attractive to trade because most movement are downtrend and you need to be really good in order to make profit on short term movement.

Don't ever try and make predictions on the market and then trade based on that, even more specially on crypto market, you should be well aware of the fact that some of these price actions are the pure result of manipulation which makes it even harder to predict the next move.

For instance even if there are no real buyers/sellers in a price range, some bigger market makers can push the price up/down for a while so that they can take some short/long positions and then and then proceed remove their buy or sell orders that kept the price there and let the market take its course, so that means these price predictions that you are trying make based on history most probably won't work, usually the next significant move of markets will happen in a way and a time that was least expected, so I personally waste my time trying to decode when market pumps/dumps while as a matter of fact 99% of the time there's no certain pattern to it.

What do call the current situation? Bearish season?
Anyway, I appreciate what you are thinking about. But for me, we are in Bullrun already and this will hard to stop if these institutional investors never stop accumulating Bitcoin. And besides, many were still coming.

I think there no need anymore to have another set of projects. We already have a lot of promising projects, we only need them to have a sustainable market demand which is somehow many have missed up. 

The market has been really unpredictable this year and we could clearly notice that it's too different from the Bull run that happened in the year 2017.
We can't rely the possibilities on its history because, to be honest, the market doesn't repeat itself and it has been too evident year. No technical analysis could predict when the bull run will end.

Anything we do without a foundation of knowledge is gambling.  Like Bitcoin today, if no one knows what the future is like then it's like gambling.  It remains only to place the stake and stop at the time you want.  Profit and loss like things that are not your own authority to estimate.  Is that the real BTC?

And what is expected the most is what happens the least that is the nature of Bitcoins and the crypto market so if one thinks the best price would be in May it might be complete opposite of it.

Remember there are millions of guys into Bitcoins now and what we think is what majority of them also think and when too many guys are planning to do the same thing, expect unexpected results. Its more like double bluff. I am not going to sell or buy anytime soon because the price is too high to buy some while the price might be going even higher and selling now would make me regret later.

Buying and selling decisions will really be different into each individual or trader because we do have our own will or goals when it comes to our portfolio.

If we do see some possible opportunities then we would be definitely buying up in spite of the current high price.Its really hard to make up conclusions that

this bull run will be ending on May if you do just simply try to look into the past then its not really that reliable nor ideal to follow up on what happened wayback.

We are seeing different situation at the moment when it comes to adoption talks.

Although you are absolutely right, there is a point that you have not taken into account, emotions, when people feel strong emotions, they usually buy and buy, it may be that at that moment the whales are selling and at the same time we see that the price of Bitcoin continues going up, and it is because the market is also moved by emotions. Both the whales and the powers are what move the market.

And this has always been true, from the 1800s from the stock market to the Bitcoin market.

Not sure, whether it's this year or next year, or the next year, we are still in the danger zone,
$ 50k resistance is reached and it reaches $ 52k in one shot, of course it has a good impact on the bitcoin chart,
Bitcoin has to hit $ 70k or as little as $ 60k to be able to provide a new pathway to $ 100k to $ 300k,
I really hope bitcoin can make that happen!

Yes, even starting from March I think.
April will start the fall. But the falling price will not be less 20K. So if your buying price is less it will not hurt you.

Do not be worried about a potential of a very long bear run because from now on we can't be in a bear run for way too long. Why? Because there are companies that are financially investing money that we never seen the amounts of before even at 50k, do you know what they would do if the price falls under 30k? They would literally get loans and debts from central bank itself to get in, they are capable of getting huge amounts of money non-stop like crazy and invest into bitcoin. It means there are a lot more richer and powerful people in the crypto world, and they will not let it go down.

How do I know this? Because if bitcoin goes too low, they are going to bankrupt and they can't let that happen so in order to save themselves they will do whatever it takes to make the price go up. Look at GME and how everyone wanted it up but wall street managed to take it lower and lower.

No Idea. I hope never!!!!  ;D

Even if your prediction was right, we still got two more months in that time we can reach another level for sure like $60K above! But there is no such things exist, the bear trend may begin at any time so we can't make assumptions that it will start immediately after a year of halving. My guess is that we have some time before entering into the bearish trend so take your profits as much as you can.

Don't just let your hopes remember that high, it hasn't yet broken the resistance and we still have more days at the moment to enjoy this temporary bull run. To have some fiat in hand, we can start selling some of our tokens in our portfolio, but do not sell them all because there will be another bull run coming up, Instead, if you have more cash, buy some of it, then hold on again for the future bull run.

They can dump their investment but I don't think they are that weak to just dump it so early.

There are a lot of interested companies and individuals that wanted to invest their money into cryptocurrencies mainly Bitcoin. That could lead to more pumps in the upcoming weeks or maybe months which make this year one of the best years of Bitcoin. The year is still starting so we never know where will it lead and where will it go.

It is not about being weak or strong, it is about knowing the right time to get out and right time to get back in.
If you think bitcoin will drop a lot, sell at this current price, and go back and buy at around 40k and the price moves higher again, you will profit from this move.

I am not saying that is what will happen or anyone knows what is going to happen, but some whales think like this and sell their coins not because they are weak but because they think they could buy even more later on.

That is the difference between crypto and all other things, in crypto you could make any movement you want and that is very valuable, there is no government that can stop you in most of crypto world (aside from local exchanges in an out of your bank account) because governments have no idea what you are doing so you could 100x leverage some crazy coin and lose a million dollars in 3 minutes because you can, or profit 3 million because you can, and nobody will be able to stop you.

Do you still believe in this pumping whale controlling it?
Don't we know that now many people like the cryptocurrency market, especially bitcoin, this is usually newcomers who keep buying so there is a lot of demand and I think it's natural because nowadays people are starting to switch from stocks to bitcoin because they know the profits here are very significant, making it possible for them to use time to his advantage.
So big people are now starting a lot in bitcoin, especially Elon Musk, who always contends with his tweets, of course this is not whale control but on increasing demand.

Well you have a good point there, people like Elon Musk, Microstrategy are great references that influence worldwide, but we cannot leave out those who have always moved the market before they entered, it should be noted that Paypal also joined the market, and it is obvious that all these companies and people do not want to lose, it is for that reason that I think that the price of Bitcoin will not fall sharply, and will try to stay. Maybe they are already new whales , the whales and emotions are what really make the market move.

Damn that's true, greediness will come when we see the price so bullish, but we should learn how to be smart and always take profit and not carrying a shitload of coin once this bull run is over. I wish I still have a lot of coins to sell, but all I have no is just the learning in the past bull run, can't sell anything,  so sad and all I do is just watching how bullish the market is.

That is only a wild guess, it can right or definitely wrong. Many investors keep on coming, they are the reason why prices keep on rising and until this never ends, we can't see the market turning back.

Anyway, there is no wrong about getting prepared for the next, if it is either be dumps or pumps. It is actually be happening all the time, can't be ignored but this time, I was in the positive that the momentum keeps long, and possible it will stay until the end of this year.

That is the point in crypto trading, there is no right or wrong until you actually do it, we have to realize that crypto is unique in that regard and there is never a right or wrong moment to get into bitcoin. You could buy right now and it could go up and you could make a profit, or you could buy now and it could go down and you could lose money, you could sell right now and it would go up and you will lose on possible profit, you could sell right now and it could go down and you get out at the right time.

All of this could happen in bitcoin, nobody can say "it won't happen", all of them are equally possible in crypto world which is why there is really no chance that we could miss out on the possibility of making money just because its high, bitcoin price being high has nothing to do with what it will do next, it could still go up even more.

Now America is preparing a new stimulus package to revive the economy. This package should be a significant source of growth for the markets. When this package expires, the US administration will accept a new one. I think this will continue for a long time. I don't quite understand why we should stop in May. But of course a certain correction in May is possible. Closer to summer, the economy generally slows down.

I'm not so sure if the same thing is going to happen this time, we all knew that there are so many new players coming into crypto now. Which lot of them are really investment big time, it will look somehow to think that a repeat of what happened before might repeat itself. We don't have the history recurrence all the time. It is time to set new rules, and start thinking of what next we can do. Have been telling people who are close to me that what we have never seen in the past is probably going to happen anytime soon. And one of such thing is never to expect any major big drop, though it might drop but its not going to drop that much.

I think it will.
Because last time we have seen already that a bull ran exactly stays for a year.
So i think this time wil be the same also.
It started in may last year and i think will stay untill the end of the may.