Bitcoin Forum

In the middle of the bull market, the big question of the moment is what price bitcoin (BTC) will reach in the coming months. And for the creator of the Stock-to-Flow or Reserves vs. Flow prediction model, by December we could be seeing the main cryptocurrency around $288,000.

For the tweeter PlanB (@100trillionUSD), who created the aforementioned metric, bitcoin would be around $288,000 by the end of this year if the behavior it has had in previous cycles is maintained. According to his model, that figure would be the average price in this 4-year cycle, which barely exceeds 3 months today.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwrQ7-wXMAUDVdn?format=png&name=large

The Stock-to-flow model is one of the best models so far. It is proven for the previous price action of Bitcoin especially on every bitcoin block halving, where we can see the price of Bitcoin increase every after of the block halving.
The $288,000 is very possible for the end of 2021, but it is the early part for expecting it to happen, and on that level, we could stay within that range for more years, like up until 2025 sideways.

When has it been found though? I mean, models based on historical data are all accurate and cool but how "battle-proven" are they really?

There are so many metrics it's almost impossible for at least one of them not to be accurate enough to be considered "a good prediction". This is why I almost never take all those advices for granted. There are too many different ones, and someone will almost certainly get it right.

Yes, I was just chatting today about this with a friend and according to
PlanB's model and what others are saying, we could be looking like $100k
as early as the end of April and well over $200k for the end of the year.

The numbers on the chart to some people are staggering. Even todays
value ~ $60k was really inconceivable this time last year, so for me $200k+
is not such a surprise.

While most of us are only aiming to get into $100k and we're already happy with that. But that's greater if bitcoin will beat the $100k prediction and will follow the flow of the chart of the s2f model.

Less than 2 weeks before this month ends and we're going to see if we will see $100k early on April. But I'm assuming that it would be from the 3rd-4th quarter. Who knows? these predictions are exciting to see it happen since we're in the bull run and no signs yet that it's about to stop.

It is a really big prediction to be honest. I actually don't have an expectation more than 100k dollars for this year but it a very nice analysis we are talking about. Of course, Bitcoin price doesn't fit every analysis but who knows maybe this one could turn out to be right.  ;D

The all time high in 2017 is less than $20,000 (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) and consider it is at $20,000 and if the bitcoin bull run ends with a x20 multiplier as it was in 2017 from the previous all time high, bitcoin will ends with $20,000 x 20 = $400,000 that is higher than $288,000.

It is math and based on history and hope that we don't know it will be repeated or rejected. I open to price below $400,000 or higher than $400,000 but I would the average from them that is $344,000. I will take profit when bitcoin tries to hit $100,000 and will wait for market actions after that.

From 2017 till today I have been hearing a lot of price prediction and frankly speaking non of them were correct. If it was that easy to predict Bitcoin price most of us here would have been Bitcoin millionaire. We all know it will reach to the moon and we can see everyday what is happening therefore there is no need to create a FOMO around the price.

Let's assume that will happen in April or May, making us prepare our bitcoin or buy more bitcoin before the price starts another rally. That price will be the highest price that the bitcoin price can reach, and I think it can raise more than that price. But the important is bitcoin price needs to hit $100k for the next highest target price, but unfortunately, we do not know if that can happen before this month-end. If the price is not back to $60k by the end of this month, we need to be patient and not feel tired of waiting because the price will soon hit the next highest price.

We do know that it will reach the moon but what is the moon for bitcoin because clearly the current prices isn't the moon that we are looking for. I think that there is some truth with this pattern and I think that we can hold on to this prediction because the numbers presented are not overhyped or even that conservative, I think that the number that they are predicting can be a possibility considering there are still 9 months left to fulfill this prediction or to debunk it, we will know it when we get there.

It's impossible. Do not hope for such a thing.

No one in their right mind will hold onto the the hope that it will go up at that price but how do you know that it is impossible for bitcoin to hit that prices by the end of the year, I mean there have been a lot of things that happened in this past 3 months which shouldn't have happened because we believe that it will follow the same pattern as the last halving but it was debunked when a continuous ATH spike happened so maybe, it is too early to say it is impossible.

Whatever the outcome might be, it wouldn't still be the moon everyone is looking for, it is a different moon for different Holder and different trader.  The earliest birds must have arrived at their purposeful moon. If bitcoin should hit the $280 mark, it will definitely be a great feet for everyone who must have had a connection with the gem.

You should always factor in a shock drop at anytime for any reason, wars, pandemics, the wrong click of a mouse... The list of reasons are as numerious as the ones for why the price might go up.

If the price rise was guaranteed to never go down, then the price of bitcoin would be worth the same as Dilithium Crystals (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dilithium_(Star_Trek)).

Yeah, it has been discussed here by @fillippone, Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.0).

There is also a scenario that $100k - if it followed 2017 pattern, and then this $288,000 if it followed 2013's bull run.

It's called prediction and this prediction basically is just speculation but based on some past bitcoin chart or some technical analysis, I see nothing wrong with this and even if they're wrong then so be it, otherwise if predictions always turns out to be true it's called fortune telling and people not gonna share it freely like it is right now.

Correct. The prediction doesn't guarantee anything, it can be true or wrong. However, it is not guessing in a random way, it has a certain method/approach. Regarding Bitcoin possibly reach $288K, it is purely a prediction. Nothing wrong if it cannot be achieved at the end of this year. That's why even an expert stated the prediction, we shouldn't thoroughly trust him.

This is why it is called "prediction" and not information, like for example tomorrow will be 20th is information, it is still about the future, you do not have to be a wizard to say some guaranteed information about the future, like I will die, that is about the future and I am not a wizard and yet it is guaranteed thing about the future.

But when you say something, like 288k will be this year, 80k will be this year, whatever you say, it is not going to be that guaranteed for sure, it is prediction and that is why we use that word. I have my own prediction for example, I am expecting at least 100k this year, could be more could be less, I can't know what will happen but I "predict" that it will be over 100k. There is nothing wrong with predicting something, keep doing that and you will eventually get it right and make some money from it at same time.

Why would people do always love to look on what happened in the past? Though, it isnt really that prohibited on looking back into the past but i wouldnt really take it up seriously
because reaching 100k alone would already be a challenge or wouldnt really be possible on this years time.We didnt expect for bitcoin to hit up 60k, who would ever thought that
we do past or break that 20k ath that we've been hoping for  on couple of years? You would see lots of sentiments like this and like that but always
take measure if you do follow it or not.

Well, we are not “looking at the past”, but we are scrutinising what happened trying to infer what could possibly happen in the future.

This is called “modelling” the reality.
Stock to flow has been consistently working since 2010, so I guess it would be a pity not to look in the past, and think it is going to break right now!

Why is everything this year, I dont think crypto itself cares about your concept of time and years :p

The momentum behind this particular market is likely not on our schedule, a bit of a mystery but I think fairly simply we cycle through a few more waves, upsets and booms before we get to a grander scale.    When everyone is proved wrong then the market makes its final move, it requires some to give up maybe the majority.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Ajw5g.png

So if we keep this very loose trend then we can carry on up, if it breaks trend then we get the grander reset event and that caps aspirations for this year probably but next year and beyond I remain bullish but only with the proviso that upset and trouble is not in the past only.

Yes, they are using the historical values to formulate a pattern and possibly apply for future trends. Without those old values, it would be hard for them to make a model. It may or may not come true, but it is better to have some sort of reference rather than pulling numbers out of nowhere. You don't need to believe what the model is saying because there will be other contributing factors that may influence the market. But later on, after this year, we will see how such modelling works and how near it is to reality?

Because people always go over the top or below the bottom. In a bull market they're too pessimistic and in a bull market they're too optimistic.

I still remember how they were claiming Bitcoin would go to 1000 dollars before the bull market reversal and we never even went below 3000.

Now they're talking about 200 thousand when we're not even close to 100. We won't even go above 100 without facing a strong correction. We'll be lucky if we go there this year but Bitcoin is already overbought at 60. 75 is all I would give it this year.

Too add what has @fillippone has said,

It's because crypto market works in cycle, that's why it's better to look at the past performance and see what might happened in the future based on those past historical logs. I advise you to look at the charts,

https://digitalik.net/btc/

And you will be amaze as how "accurate" this modelling is.

Do you personally believe that? I mean PlanB's (@100trillionUSD) unique analysis?

When I first got acquainted with PlanB, I was kind of surprised at how high his predictions are. At first I thought he was simply too bullish that he is not anymore realistic. And then his predictions started to happen one after another. I realized the man has some solid basis in his predictions. So far, they seem to go along with the real price of Bitcoin. But $288,000 for Bitcoin within this year? I hope it will happen but I think it is way too high to reach.

In fact, no one will know the highest price that Bitcoin will reach this year, we all can only speculate from each other's analysis. It is not wrong
if Bitcoin is predicted this year will reach a price of $ 288k, because Bitcoin's performance until now is very surprising. Bitcoin's price increase
was very fast and has not stopped until now. Based on this, it's no wonder that many predictions say the Bitcoin price will hit a price above $ 200k.
Earlier this year I predicted the Bitcoin price this year would reach $ 100k, but entering March there was a significant increase that was beyond
my expectation. So I agree with the prediction that Bitcoin might hit a price above $ 200k this year.

It might reach $288K or it might not. The important thing to do is take profits from time to time. Imagine if back in 2017 you were waiting for $20K which never actually happened, price went to $19.7K or so. You would of missed out.

Sure if it ends up going to $250K its unfortunate if you sell half of your BTC at $50K or $100K however keep in mind that its easier for bitcoin to do a 20x going from $1K to $20K than it is a 20x going from $20K to $400K. Look at the overall market cap.

Basically its reaching the point of where its almost unsustainable. Imagine how much money it would take to support a huge price of like $250K bitcoin.

I was also fascinated by this prediction, the modelling scale of S2F.

When we look at the price, I'm sure everyone is drooling about it and hope that it can really reach that high so that of course we can make a lot of profits. However, it is just a prediction still, no one really knows what is going to happen in the next six month or at before the end of the year.

I guess seeing bitcoin reaching 6 digits will be huge news if it happens, but as we can see the potential growth is slowing down, might be good to take profits along the way.

That's quite a huge price prediction for a 4 year cycle. Though Btc has becoming more and more unpredictable as years passes by and S2F model has been delivering a quite reliable predictions, but I just can't get off my mind that $288,000 is such a huge figure for Btc to break this year.
I personally think Btc would peak at around $100,000 this year. A lot of people has been waiting for that to happen and a massive dump will take place then recovery and regrets on the latter.

Bitcoin is now so much volatile. We know Bitcoin is one of the most potential and good coin. But i don't appreciate with your speech. I don't think that Bitcoin price will hit $288,000 in this year. In my opinion bitcoin can hit this much amount but not in this year. In the future its price can touch the amount. I think in this year Bitcoin price can hit around $80k to $100k. Or gonna down like 2017. Because no one can surely tell something about cryptocurrency.

In due time it might reach that price but no need to rush. No technical analysis is accurate because the market is very unpredictable and has a lot of surprise. Honestly a $50k at first quarter of the year is quiet fast and no one expected it, but we need to be very careful because the price of BTC is not in the hands of common holder but in the hands of manipulators.

Plan B & his famed S2F has proved very correct so far, I really hope that 288k is a possibility this year. It will make many of us wealthy, we are currently struggling to break 60k but when bitcoin pops it sure as hell pops.

Yes, but remember this model should be seen as for long term prediction. Also, regarding the year cycle, we might see two waves in 3 years, as bitcoin's narrative has evolved, we might see the cycle also changing. So let's see if we can peak at $100k and then continue it's growth on the next cycle of $200k++. Might be really good to be a holder up until the end of the year.

I'm also a fan of S2F modelling by Plan B and hoping that one day we will see that $288,000 prediction hits. But in any case, we will have to wait, we already broken that $60,000 barrier and no doubt that we will surpassed it in the next coming days. The FUD has settled down already, no more negative news in the market. Maybe we see some resistance but eventually we will get there.

$100,000 is not that bad as well, if $288,000 is not there, then at least a 6 digits at the end of the here will already be a celebration for all of us.

If it's a reliable company and they are coming up with that prediction, I'm ok with it but I'm not giving out my 100% trust that what they are saying will come true 100%, to the point that you are going to sell everything and invest, I still follow this advice that you should invest what you can afford to lose, nothing is 100% sure when it comes to investing.

A closer to reality number is still $400k in my calculations and it makes more sense compared to the previous rise sizes and also the fact that this time there is a huge amount of money being dumped into bitcoin from everyone starting from individuals and goes all the way to institutional investors and big banks!
On top of that the US dollar is going to experience a lot of inflation thanks to trillions of dollars they keep printing regularly these days. $400k seems to be just the start.

The market is struggling to make it to the $60k mark right now, if the prediction is going to come true it should start to make an impact on the third quarter of this year, and this is the best time to accumulate, that model is a good motivation to buy more HODL more and keep following the market, but always remember only invest what you can afford to lose.

Its important to realize that bitcoin will hit any price between 100K - 300K. If you have this vision, you will not end up selling at 50K, 60K or 90K. If you sell at these levels you will regret when bitcoin will be parabolic at the end of this cycle.

Personally, i doubt about the projection of OP's searched metrics regarding the future price of bitcoin that may attain within this year. I do believe on the infinite capability of bitcoin which in fact bitcoin never cease to surprise us since this year came, its new ATH attain was unexpectedly came only a days difference after the last ATH which we already used to wait for the new ATH within the end of the year. What i truly mean is any number of new ATH are possible but yeah i guess its too high to reach also.

There is a lot of good news that bitcoin is predicted to continue to increase this year and there will continue to be parties who will buy bitcoin in large quantities like the previous news because bitcoin is a very promising investment, and the increase in bitcoin is very high, is everyone's hope.
and I think this year bitcoin will hit $ 75,000 or $ 115,000 and that price is giving me optimism compared to the so called OP price.

The fact is that it may not reach 288k this year, but logic states that as a store of value currency bitcoin will reach 288k eventually. And shouldn't that be the most important thing, investors look at that but traders unfortunately do not. If I end buying at 60k, and price drops to 30k and then increases to 288k I still won, and I like it, and I will be very happy about it, but some people end up saying "well if you bought at 30k you would have made a lot more" and those are the same people who know that bitcoin will go up in the future but the next stop could be lower so they wait.

I do not like that, I can't wait, I do not know if it will go down or not, so I better buy right now so that I could profit when it reaches to 288k levels, that is why I end up with accumulating as much bitcoin as I can daily, it helps me grow my portfolio.

I never have a doubt about this, because if you vividly study the thread, you see that bitcoin all time high is unlimited. There is 24hrs market cap extension.

Theres primary causes and secondary effects, we will have natural cycles as the nature of money itself in transmission and storage as wealth is altered by actions of the FED and others  such as the government who use up such large amounts of value.
  Inflation itself such as we've seen is destructive but the process they've enacted in this particular way is causing asset inflation rather then low level effects just yet.   Because inflation is destruction it will also be we will see recessionary effects I think so there is more then one dynamic in play and that makes it more confusing and convoluted in the final conclusion.   Japan has been at this since the early 90's a long head start of most other economies and they also have natural deflation.

You don't have an expectation of more than 100K this year?? I just want to know when you join in Crypto?? Are you know what happens in 2017??
My conclusion you are still a newcomer inc cryptocurrency, because if  you had been in for a long time and knew the happens of 2017 you would not say things like this

Old member optimistic that BItcoin will over 100K this year or maybe 200K

the factors are diverse when it comes to bitcoin price. when you consider other metrics, you may come up with different figures here. it is nice to see this price level, but interested how far or near this will be in the actual scenario? and that we will see at the end of this year. would want to re-visit again this thread when the time comes.
the possibilities are endless but we need to keep up with the news surrounding this market.

I'm optimistic that Bitcoin will hit $ 288k eventually, but for this year it might hit $ 288k a little too fast. I think Bitcoin took a little longer to reach
$ 288k, but there is nothing wrong with buying Bitcoin at its current price. because in the end the price of Bitcoin will also continue to rise,  if it turns
out to be able to reach the price of $ 288k this year the profit generated must be very large. Even though it didn't reach the price of $ 288k, Bitcoin
could have reached the price of at least $ 100k, so we are still profitable if we buy Bitcoin now. I agree with the opinion that buying Bitcoin does not
need to wait for the price to dip, but buying at any price will still be profitable in the end.

of course I am clear and underline your statement that it is true that no one knows and understands clearly what will happen with crypto. but based on the experience that has happened we can conclude that it will at least be the same as the past that has happened before.

bitcoin every 4 years will have a halving and in the first and second periods there has been an increase a year after the halving happened, and the third halving is 2020, so there will be an increase at the end of 2021. but before the halving the effect @elonmusk has made changes that happened where since last year bitcoin has reached a high price.

This year the effect is still visible and the halving effect is not yet visible, so there is a possibility that bitcoin will not experience the 2018 event this year but instead there will be a sharp increase to continue until the end of the year. In terms of how many bitcoins will reach ATH, it's hard to predict but definitely fantastic.

if the Bitcoin price is still below $ 100k honestly I will find it hard to believe the price of Bitcoin at $ 200k,
because the bullish time might end this year, and in Q1 bitcoin is still at the $ 50k level, yes this is not a bad thing,
it will But if everyone wants $ 200k this year means greedy community and holder levels are getting higher,
and this is a red flag for the market, maybe 2018 will be repeat again this year.

Just to show you some perspective, and that is is attainable...

Note: it’s logarithmic scale...  ;D

https://i.ibb.co/PrLDmxq/3-E2-B47-D0-49-CC-4920-9-CB8-CC6-BC11-D1-C7-A.jpg

Actually, we all can be Bitcoin millionaires, it's not about you can predict the price because no one can. But it's all about how long you will hold the Bitcoin.

I just want to say if compared between 2017 and 2020 Bitcoin already so high but will more high for sure, but don't just focus on Bitcoin, Try find hidden gem on altcoin

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$288,000 I believe it

Feels not excited to see Bitcoin reach $288,000. It is very expensive and that corresponds to higher risk.

But the future can't even tell where we are heading to. The graph shows a growing price, that was what we expected to see but I'd never think it jumps to (even) $100,000 easily. Probably, we have to wait another decade for this to become possible, and that only happens when the majority of the transactions are using Bitcoin.

The PlanB S2F model is one of the best, not only because it has a market logic or because it also takes volatility into account, the best of all is that it is a model that does not become an indicator tool but rather has an expiration date. maturity, it is also one of the most accepted models by many radical analysts of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

It may seem very strange or maybe very impossible that it does not happen, but from one moment to another bitcoin was at $12k and $13k then it reached $50k, and almost $60k, it is very possible that it can give a change to that price, no there is nothing far-fetched about the Bitcoin market. In addition, there is a lot of institutional investment coming in, many investors trust Bitcoin at the moment, even some gold investors have put their faith in Bitcoin, this information that new investors handle such as Paypal, Microestrategy, Elon Musk, among others, do not enter the market to earn pennies, they enter to earn millions.

I agree that it was one of the best, but I wouldn't say that only radical analyst can appreciate it. Even traders who are starting their journey can look at it. But be cautious though that this model is not for day trading, it is supposed to be looked for long term.


As past history tells us, although bitcoin's price is very volatile, at the end of the day it can have a increased that we really really thought it was possible, now we are talking about six digit figure at the end of the year. Scary but it is really doable by how the price is moving in the last 12 months.