Bitcoin Forum

I'd say that price movements in BTC are driven by a wide range of market forces.

The price of BTC falling is not something that generally concerns me, knowing how bullish the underlying price movements of it have been for months.

Any "short term" price fluctuations, which I currently view these movements as, should be viewed on longer timeframes, maybe looking a the daily, weekly, or even monthly candlesticks.

Having been through one previous bull market, price corrections/swings of up to 40% are an accepted risk of investment such as a high-risk asset class.

Just my thoughts though.

😎

Looking at the recent fall of Bitcoin price is this the correction we are about to see or should we expect more changes in price fluctuations

The price is still more than double the price at the start of the year.
The futures getting to maturity is quite an usual moment for the price to fall for a while.
Historically March ends bad and April recovers all that and sometimes more.
And yes, Bitcoin price has its moments of big fluctuation now and then, for now it's not so much off some would like us to believe.

However, all this is speculation, not investment advice. DYOR and make your own decisions for your money.

Only buy if price has a 40% fluctuation will be a safe plan but it will make you missing many dips.

Why do you not consider to buy 10%, 20% or 30% dips? 20% dip is good enough to get profit and have safe entry.

This is about 15% drop in price and we have had this kind of drop around 2 or 3 months ago when price dropped to about $48k and just as the correction enquiry was kicking off, the price went to hit $60,000. Is a matter of choice to what you feel. Check to if it is right for you but, I think to wait a little can be good.

Just 3 days back bitcoin was standing firmly on 60k and right now its falling badly. Price now is 51k. Bitcoin has one of the most volatile pricing model that almost impossible to predict. We may think that its end of bull run while bitcoin may be at 60k in next 2 days. You never know.

March was generally always a bearish month. Many reasons for this. One reason is most likely tax selling. People made crazy sums of money back in 2020 and they got their tax bill from their accountant and most likely it’s higher than expected and they got no choice but to sell some of their holdings to pay their tax bill. Nobody wants to be a tax liability.

The same thing happened in March 2018, where as soon as April started most taxes were filed and the market went up. At least in April only to have it head down once again. However this time it might not be any different. I think the Coinbase IPO will be huge on the crypto Markets and we might get another attempt at the all times high once again.

Expect more if you've been in here so that even if it don't plunge for some more, you're expectation isn't going to hurt you a lot.

It's not falling badly, it's still healthy to say because that's what bitcoin really is. You see it pump as much and as high as it can and you'll also have to think of the correction and when this happens, you think of it as a healthy correction.

This is a good strategy considering that we really do not know how long is the dip if you have $1000 you should not buy on one go spread it , check the price and the news if it will go further 10% or 20% for every dip is already good for profit, we are in the bull run even buying at 5% is already good once Bitcoin make a huge pump.

The thing with bull market is that every correction has a chance to actually not be a correction, but rather the beggining of the crash. I remember how when Bitcoin was hitting $20,000 in 2017 and then started falling, everyone was saying "HODL" and that it's just another correction on the road to $100k. People who buy deep into the bull run should really be careful about it, otherwise they'll have to endure years of being in a loss on their positions.

This^^

You need to get out before or bite the bullet when it goes down.
With bite the bullet I mean accept a 20%-30% hit before or after the ATH. OR just HODL 4 more years with your coins on a cold wallet.

Looking at the S2F model you can gauge when to get out if you want to increase your holdings.

Or you know, instead of trying to time the markets, which a lot of people have failed to do successfully, just use the tried and tested strategy which has worked successfully most of the time not only with bitcoin but with investing in general— dollar-cost averaging.

https://dcabtc.com/

In the last two months, we have a dip between 23%-26%, so I should say that within that range, it's always a good buy. We have seen a 40% swing though, and we just might not see it with the current trend that we are seeing.

The month of March is not yet finished, but if you have seen the fluctuations and the recent dip, it already scream buying opportunity already. No need to wait for the price to go to <$50k, IMHO.

The Bitcoin market is somewhat different, if you compare it with the Stock Market, stocks tend to go up or down, but in the Bitcoin market there is an ingredient called volatility, if you have an understanding of how the stock market moves, that knowledge they are fully applicable to the Bitcoin market.

The movements of Bitcoin are difficult to determine, if you are in the market in a position or expecting long-term benefits you have a greater understanding of what may happen, in the short term it will always be much more difficult to determine the movement, I think experience It is the one that can best teach you. Many forces move the market, especially whales, and the other one you have to try to see is emotions

Everyday expect that Bitcoin could make a large price movement. That has always been happening with Bitcoin. Sometimes it grows by the thousand in just a matter of hours in the same way that it could also lose by the thousand in a day's time.

It surprises us when it comes but not really because we all know it is always possible with Bitcoin. It is ironic. But what is most important is that sooner or later a new ATH will be recorded so just enter as soon as your funds are available.

And now it is at 54k again, I still think that people are overreacting, yes we know the price can be very volatile but that is not what we are seeing now, the price of bitcoin is not about to go down dramatically, we have seen what happens when the people are in panic and the price goes down, we saw that during March of the previous year when people were afraid of the consequences of the pandemic and what we are witnessing now is not anywhere close to what we saw back then.

Zoom out... see the bigger picture...
Don’t trade the 1m charts
Trade the 1D or higher charts
Or buy&HODL

This will show you the pattern...
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/

You are both right and wrong. In a 4 years bitcoin cycle, bull run happens from 1-2 years. In that bull run after a few weeks of pump there are up to 40% corrections. Like 5.10 such happens in one bull run. But at the end of bull run when bear market start, price will drop around 80%. And will take about a year to finally drop to bottom. Big question is when Bitcoin will reach ATH, since after that moment price will mainly decline for a year. and after it will take over 3 years for price to get up to the level of that top.

You're absolutely right.

People staring at 10m candles trying to analyse for some sort of pattern are generally missing a range of long term indicators that will crush their position in due course. It is also super difficult to do evidence based TA - which is why being in for the long haul is generally more favourable as an investor.

And yes, I fully anticipate there to be a 40%+ (perhaps even more) correction coming as a matter of time. Markets are already extremely frothy as is, and by the end of the bull market there's going to be a ton of weak hands holding onto unaffordable positions.

The correction will happen again, and it is like a roller coaster that can make us scared with the up and down of the price. If you can analyze using many indicators and know that where the fluctuation of the chart will go, you will not feel worried as you can follow the price and try to trade.

After the bitcoin price hit $60k, the price is down and still not increase higher and make a new ATH. But in the next month, bitcoin price will have more chances to reach the new ATH as if the correction is end temporarily, and the price will start the rally.

You may start trading with at least a 4h chart since that is what is so many Scalp traders are doing. I suggest a 4-hour chart minimum to study the market conditions to see whether the market is going up or down. Once you fully understand the conditions then you may decide what to do, long or short. Also, I think the major factor that is driving the bitcoin market uptrend right now is scarcity. And with enough scarcity, we might see another bitcoin ATH.

Despite the popularity of TA I have always had my scepticism especially when it comes to such a short time frame, I can understand why some people may think it works on daily charts and longer as this indicate tendencies for the price of most assets, but many watch charts shorter than one hour, what can you learn out of it? If a whale sells during the time you went long then you will lose money and any TA that you did trying to predict what the market was going to do was useless.

Yes, Bitcoin price depends on demand and supply. not determined by a particular company or country. The frequent upward movement of the Bitcoin price makes everyone interested in investing, but not everyone can become a bitcoin investor because the price can drop in seconds. Investors suitable for investing in Bitcoin are those who are prepared to lose, because price movements are very fluctuating and very difficult to guess. So before investing in bitcoin you must be prepared for all the risks that might occur, to get the maximum profit, You need to be able to properly analyze crypto movements.

Yeah, buying in ATH is of course not a great idea, I would hope that people get in earlier and lower instead of at ATH prices however we should also realize that last people who bought at ATH in 2017 made a 3x return in 3 years, that is actually a good good amount of money to make in 3 years, very rarely anything gives you that kind of return. Sure it wouldn't be great in midterm, it could go up to 100k this year and crash to very low numbers, or maybe it can crash even today, but in the long run it should be going higher than 60k for sure eventually.

@OP
do not be upset that you didn't hold your coins, nobody knew it would be this high, even the maximalists did assume it would go up but not this high and this quickly, so you were doing the right thing at the time I am sure.

I traded the higher timeframe particularly 1D or 3D, while monitoring my trades with the lower timeframe.
lower time is too fast and unstable thus subjecting them to any form of analysis or modelling is waste of time.
I dislike scalping thus it is a no go area for me, l will start to use the modelling site to check price patterns.

When it comes to price fluctuations then better get used to it because once you had set your foot into this market or field then you can really see on how volatile the price is and there's no specific
price percentage would really be precise for you to presume on where it could possibly hit but basing up on history then we do have at least some idea on how far it can go and as more you do able
to get experience you would really be having the knowledge on how to deal up with this market.It is something that can be simply handled out but its not impossible for you to take.
Just learn on the process and dont rush up and everything would really be fine.

If you are not concern about the price correction then that is great when you hold your own on BTC, Cryptocurrency is volatile, and knowing that nature you would surely understand that we and you can not predict any movement if the price would go up and down, or if the price is having a price correction,

But you can surely see some technical analysis to fill up the needs in making a trade you can surely see some graphs to analyze your way in making trades or if you are holding for a long turn then just wait for the next All-time high, because right now the price is hitting $60,000 USD again.

With this kind of thoughts, you’re a long term investor and didn’t mind if the price will enter into corrections because you believe for a better price in the future.

Beginners have to understand how the price works, and used this to create strategies either for short term trade or for a long term trade, as long as you have the plan you can win in this market so keep it up.

Most of the newbies is eager for profit but not taking precautions on every possible crash of bitcoin price. They're really emotional on that worst situations and can't handle stressful times when they tend to lose their asset badly.
Honestly, if it involves a lot of money this is really a very sad thing when hard earned money is risked for bitcoin investments.
Don't get easily fooled by FUD, you might regret when price explodes for another ATH.

Longer the time you are on this market the more things that you would eventually learn but depending if you do keep up reading even with those basics then you would eventually
learn along the process.We do all start on being a beginner and understanding on how the market works isnt really hard as it looks.Just take some effort and time for you to
grasp on what you do like understanding will be varying on someone because not all would be having the same mindset.
Just always remember on not to invest on the amount that you cant afford to lose.

As a beginner the focus should be to experiment. Buy a small fraction that you can afford to lose. Later you'll se the difference as well as the holding value varying based on the price changes taking place with Bitcoin and the cryptomarket. At the beginning itself if you try to find reason then it might be a big disappointment to the beginner.

finding the main reason, is like looking for a needle in a haystack. the bitcoin price movement comes from various factors and no one can really pinpoint the major influencers on this one. just think that it is driven by mere supply and demand in the market. and getting the sentiment of the market is quite hard as it changes from time to time. but you can monitor the market by what is happening around it. read the news, be open to what is happening in the market.
understanding it may just give you a headache. just be open that the factors are really diverse and you cant isolate each of them.