Bitcoin Forum

The total BTC balance on exchanges continuously decreasing since 2020. This shows that investors are withdrawing and storing their BTC in hardware and cold wallets. They are accumulating BTC for long term. Less BTC on exchanges means less selling pressure.

The same pattern is find after the 2016 halving and we see a long bull run until Dec 2017.

We are still far away from the bull run top. Hold some BTC for long term.

There are rumours that Facebook holding Bitcoin. The news is covered by Fox Business. Facebook may announce the buying or holding if BTC anytime and that will pump BTC. Everyone wants to get their hands on BTC, we are too early. HODL and enjoy the bull run.

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1387444415120265222?s=20

NEW UPDATE .(8 May 2021)
This is big. Citibank, the 4th biggest bank in the USA, is considering launching crypto trading and custody services. This means all the Citi Bank users can buy sell and hold bitcoin and other cryptocurrency in their bank account. Now everyone is looking to get in the cryptocurrency train.

SEC chairman finnally admitted that Bitcoin is a "Store of Value" and call most of cryptocurrency as securities. This is bullish for whole crypto market. Eventually everyone is making positive comments about BTC. Big move coming🚀

a safe way as well as a concern if the wallet containing Bitcoin is lost, the secret word is not properly guarded. withdrawing Bitcoin from Exchange is a long-term goal. But what's the harm in keeping it on an exchange and not traded, is it at a loss? and if it is lost it will be the responsibility of the exchange, but if it is stored in a hard wallet and is lost, only you are responsible.
so which one is more effective and safer when securing your Bitcoin?

Does anyone think the mainstream exchanges will freeze retail investors from selling at the top if BTC reaches extreme highs?

According to my experience, if it is lost on the platform or exchange, will the company replace it? Of course not, and intended to be hacked, but if in a private wallet it is more effective and safer, depending on how you secure your private key, friend.

Isn't that one of the reasons why Bitcoin price records a new ATH? Because many instinctual investors buying Bitcoin, obviously they wouldn't hold their BTC into the exchange. Everyone knows about the risk of holding Bitcoin to an Exchange. Holding more means there is less circulation, but demand is increasing. As a result, Bitcoin starts to move uptrend. Anyway, holding your fund isn't safe for the exchange, so what is happening is right. Still, it's a positive movement for Bitcoin users and holders as well.

Everyone? No, they don't!
There are thousands there who think their coins are insured on exchanges, thousands who don't haven't read the terms and conditions, oh heck, there are even those who don't know how an exchange works.

As for the data itself, I don't know how accurate that is, they are tracking wallets basically, an exchange changing their cold wallets makes this metric useless until they find out the new one and add it to the queue, that is if they manage to do so, for example, nobody has yet accurately identified all Coinbase cold storage coins and there a million of them. And in the past glass node has made a lot of claims that have been proved to be total, crap, I won't forget this one all my life (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5257498.msg54669608#msg54669608). They are in the business of selling charts and they try to make them more important than they are.

That being said I hope the numbers drop to zero, investors should keep those coins in proper cold storage and normal users should keep those in their damn wallets, Thodex was just a fresh example of why you should't!

First of all, your coins won't get lost in an exchange. In rare scenarios, they are compromised by hackers or phishers and in a case like that, the exchange would never take the responsibility and compensate you with the amount of coins you had from their own vault. That doesn't happen.
Another scenario that could occur is the glitches and errors in systems, which might be the reason for the funds getting unsettled for a while, but that wouldn't be a problem and the exchange would rectify that themselves.

So overall, the ideal solution is to withdraw and store your coins somewhere like a cold wallet, and keep your private keys safe. It is never recommended to keep storing your assets in an exchange unless you are using them for trading purposes.

The truth is the long-term investors prefer storing their bitcoin in a hardware wallet and besides you don’t have business with an exchange when you are not a trader and the numbers of traders are few compared to holders.

There are more whales in the market than ever and at the same time they are buying like crazy now exchanges are not the place to store your money and therefore these people are actually investing at a much safer place. At the same time after the price explosion of bitcoins. People have realized that they can make more money just by holding and therefore instead of exchanges people are preferring storing all that money at a stable and safe place.

I do think we have reached a point where the demand is more towards holding and investing rather than trading. That's something personal I believe. So I do think we might be just making this situation more serious that it probably is. Don't worry ! People are more educated about cold storage now.

there is right friend,

Cryptocurrency world expert, concludes this year is a very volatile BTC movement, let's see for this month, may.

I feel the same, although we may have to wait for months until the second stage begins.

I've seen previous 2 bull runs compared and it seems that we are still very close to the median price. In the previous runs we were exploding far above into the overbought territory. This time we haven't seen the real FOMO craze. People are acting like more careful buyers this time.

Like in 2017 we went from 1000 to 3000 and then to 20000. 20x the ATH. The 3x ath we've seen this year is nothing compared to that.

I keep seeing these things on Twitter which charts detailing the amount of coins on exchanges decreasing. Tye price isn’t going up now though is it, we are 10% down from the ATH. Why isn’t the price going up if available supply is less?

Perhaps people learned that their coins are not 100% safe and guaranteed insured on exchanges, though there are still quite a number that believes that exchanges' security system are 100% hack-proof (which isn't).

Big entities buying huge amounts of bitcoin are the main culprit as to why exchanges are depleting their reserve of bitcoin in their stashes. If this trend continues then there may be an artificial, short-term shortage of coins in the market possibly pushing the price on insane levels. So far, situations aren't that bad yet and haven't reach its boiling point so there's no real need to panic.

The market, also has since entered into a stagnant phase. While there aren't many coins in the market, there isn't enough money laying around to buy these things, hence why we are still not pushing aggressively price-wise.

Hello everybody. I've been in cryptocurrency only since the spring of 2017 and maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that in recent years information has been constantly slipping about a decrease in Bitcoin balances on exchanges, but then they somehow suddenly appear and the price falls like a stone. I think this is not the kind of news that is strongly worth referring to - Bitcoins can both leave the exchanges and come. Personally, I think that if this news has been circulated lately, we must wait for a sharp drop in prices. Time will tell if I was right.

The reason for crypto exchange holding decrease is simple, the institutions are the major investors and they can't keep the holding on an exchange site not even when we are in bullish market but 70% of BTC holder always sell 75% of their holding when halving effect take place.

The pattern of today's market is totally different to previous halving market.

I think you say this because you believe in the prediction make about the BTC market to reach $100K. Well, understand that tomorrow are not promised, this crypto market is highly volatile and the bullish market start when will least expected so it will also end when we don't expect.

Although, there's no evidence that Facebook hold BTC i believe the to be true due to the knowledge of the Facebook CEO and I don't think he will afford to miss out the BTC opportunity when institutional investors invest in BTC.

I've been in the crypto space two years longer than you (man I wish I would have gotten in 2010 but still did good). I want to say that you are right that the crypto media and market makers have been hyping up the fact that fewer BTC is on exchanges and is going into the hands of custody or personal wallets. I do want to make this funny point back in 2015-2016 era when the media would try to make its moves to hype or FUD the markets the crypto whales would mostly do the opposite to prove the media wrong. Now I think when you got in is when the media started to tame the market to their whims mostly. The overall point I'm trying to make is that once the bigger players jump into this market and there is a Bitcoin ETF the markets will dump shortly after with the media FUD'ing the market. What I will say in agreement though with the media and this "word on the street" is that they are right mostly that there be fewer BTC on exchanges (unless a huge dump command by those running markets or huge pump by the powers of fiat institutions (brokers, governments, etc.)) in the near future and beyond. Regardless, hodl strong and BTC will continue to transcend the fiat currencies and possibly even physical precious metals. I sort hate the fact that the media and these institutions have sort of tamed the market to their whims because it seems like BTC trades similar or parallel to the stock market. I think bigger things than an ETF are ahead for BTC and it will be added to the VIX.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdHsX-KJRG4

One thing you need to consider is this. Back when BTC was at $5K or so. If you had 0.50 BTC on an exchange it was only worth $2500. Now half a coin is still worth over $26K. So you need to understand that many people probably decided to get hardware wallets or some sort of cold storage setup since it was very risky leaving huge amount of BTC on a centralized exchange.

I think when people read about these sim swap attacks they all decided to protect themselves and invested in a hardware wallet. They are very easy to setup and use. Much better than using a paper wallet from 5 years ago. So one reason could be that institutions are putting it on cold storage and another is that people are just keeping less coins on exchanges for security.

I mean, at this point, majority of the balance in exchanges are for traders doing daily trading. Majority of Hodlers? I'm pretty sure they would've realized now that they might as well just put it in a hardware wallet instead of leaving it in an exchange, which has been emphasized for oh so long.
No, it's not the responsibility of the exchange. Heck, Bitcoin is basically an asset/coin that you yourself manage. Leaving it to the exchange means that you trust them enough to leave it to them, so even if it was lost, it's not their fault but rather yours. Crypto is called your own personal bank for a reason, it's because everything, from security, to storage, to means of buying/selling/transferring it is all on you.

Then what happens if there are less bitcoin on exchanges? These means that the prices are only going to go up more than ever because there is little supply and a high demand. OP is right, we have to continue hodling and wait for the inevitable pump in prices and you don't want to be missing out of it.

If you want to trade with a 1.000.000 USD budget, you need a lower BTC balance one the exchange now, compared with 2019 when the exchange rate was lower.

The availability of BTC in exchange decrease slowly so it won't as impactful as many people imagined. But it is definitely good for a long term, the thing regarding why the price is down 10% below ATH is because well as the name ATH itself implies, the market definitely can't sustain to keep btc on ATH price forever, there's always some people who want to dump their bitcoin and make some good profit. The effect of this BTC balance decrease will be starting to show for long term especially for btc long term holders. Hopefully I could still accumulate BTC as much as I can despite the decrease of its availability.

This has been brought in the past already but I can't say that people are doing what you say them to do so. Without any proof that what they have withdrawn is being stored in hardware wallets we cannot guarantee that that is what they are doing. You must match up sales from both Trezor and Ledger to see if it match up with your theory which would be a hard thing to do so as I don't think they have that data available publicly.

It's great that crypto exchanges are hodling less Bitcoins.
They are the banks of the crypto world and we don't need banks.Bitcoin was created to be an "anti-bank" currency.Most of the altcoins were created with the same purpose.
We need more peer-to-peer crypto trading and more decentralized exchanges.
Less crypto exchanges means less exit scams,less hacks and less horror stories of people,who lost their coins in a crypto exchange.

this is the latest reference for the future development of bitcoin. we can predict that. maybe mid-2021 could reach 1 billion bitcoin value.

For investors this form of no pressure to be sold immediately, because the prospects for bitcoin are very good in the future.
big investors really have to be smart to see this, because with the withdrawal of bitcoin to their respective wallet, it means that there will be long-term value to bitcoin.

This has been a known fact for some time but it is nice that it is being brought up to light once again, the new institutional investors getting into bitcoin are not interested in bitcoin as a trading asset, they want to hold it for the long term and this is completely understandable.

They are seeing that governments are still printing money, exercising useless measures to combat the pandemic and in the case of the US government it is going to raise the taxes they need to pay, so they are thinking on ways to protect themselves and what can be better than an asset that cannot be confiscated and that is a store of value and has a hard limit on the number of coins that will ever exist?

I believe it, since there two possibilities when instutional investor when they are trying to move their asset on the exchange. The first possibility, if they sell their bitcoin then we will see a huge decrease that will happen but we haven't seen a huge decrease until now.

Bitcoin price just make a sideaway market for at least six months until now. And the last possibility is as you have mentioned, they move their holding into hardware or cold wallet because the best way to hold bitcoin is through hardware and cold wallet. We have same prediction, bitcoin still in the bull run market, yeah I guess sooner or later $100.000 will be reached.

I have been following this on-chain metric for the last few weeks / months and people prefer to keep their bitcoin out of exchanges. There is a lot of bitcoin outflow from the exchanges which means that people are not willing to sell their bitcoins. The buying pressure will increase at exchanges and therefore bitcoin price will continue to rise.

I do trust the media because they are bought to spread propaganda so as big companies whoever bought them can have huge profit

The bull run must be run for around 1 more year before it reverse to other side. Bitcoin has shown a great persistence and indomitable after a huge correction. That is a sign that investors keep buying bitcoin whenever it has a lower price

Where do you think all those Bitcoins bought by MicroStrategy, Tesla and similar big companies are? As far as I know, they have no choice but to store them on services like Coinbase Custody, which means that all these coins are not on Coinbase, but they are still there - just moved to another crypto wallet.

Although exit scams happen from time to time when it comes to crypto exchanges, I am of the opinion that crypto users lose their coins far more because they become victims of phishing, fake wallets, various crypto scams (just look at social networks). It is true that we can influence ordinary people to use DEX, or to be in possession of their private keys - but those who now buy the most (big players) have no choice but to use so-called crypto banks.

It is always recommended that you keep your Bitcoin in an address that you hold the private key.  Knowledge on how to secure our wallet is everywhere on the internet so learning it isn't expensive.  If we keep our Bitcoin in exchange there are lots of possible risks involve which includes hacking, shutting down of exchange running away with our funds making their exit scam and worst blocking our account that holds our Bitcoin.

Yeah, a media that produces a propaganda either black or white that could only benefit to them.
Anyway, it's just a right choice why investors are pulling out their Bitcoin balance on exchanges to put it on a safe hardware wallet than leaving it on any custodial wallet that has a huge chance that they will definitely gonna lose their investment.

So to avoid future loss and future hack just like what happened last 2017 there are lots of hacking incidents and fuds spreading like a wild fire that time that it suddenly ended the Bitcoin bull run just in December IMO.

Forget about rumors about Facebook holding bitcoin. That news was put in use by the media for them to have a coverage that has been awaited by its audience.

I've read an analysis that the bull run that we're seeing is just the start and really the comparison to 2016. Which means, the 2017 bull run hasn't arrived yet which might be until 2022 with most of those speculations.

We have clarity regrading the news about Facebook holding any cryptocurrency. They never filed anything to SEC which means the news was just rumors to attract investors and audience.

What analysis is that which that says that the 2017 bull run will be back in 2022  :D.The time it took after the halving was much larger in the past but after two rallies huge investors and everyone in the market was aware that the market is going to rally and everyone started to invest much earlier than the halving and so is the reason we had the rally much earlier than the last two times.

Yep, less selling pressure is one of the reasons we can consider why Bitcoin balances for some exchanges are slowly going down.
We can also consider that whales are somehow manipulating the inflows/outflows of exchanges, so onchain analysis for exchange inflows/outflows will change, but this is for the bitter scenario for being a Bitcoin bullish  :D

This is already proven from previous bitcoin bull run, exchange inflows slowly going down and exchange outflows is increasing for exchanges, a very bullish scenario for Bitcoin.

I want to agree this at some points but I don't think that "everyone" really knows the risk of holding Bitcoin into an exchange.
2 possible reasons why some traders especially newbies are just keeping it on an exchange is:

1. They don't know the risk of it.
2. They are just storing it there so that they can sell it immediately when they saw profit that they are comfortable with.

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Either all, this is true because there are many institutions and some average Joes who are buying Bitcoin and just keeping it. They see Bitcoin as a store of value thus they are keeping it making the total BTC balance on exchanges decreasing. On the other hand, when the bull market has ended and shifted into the bear market for sure this trend will shift too. For sure there are many Bitcoin holders out there who will sell at least a portion of their Bitcoin holdings.

Of course it's necessary incase what will happen to the exchanges where your btc is stored. As the matter of fact mostly didn't last long and turn into scam exchange, so its better to withdraw and put it into hardwer wallet or anywhere where you can assure it's realy safe... Especially now which is the fee is too high and keep increasing, for me in view there is a possibility some of the exchange will collapse without knowing because amount of holder is gradually decreasing also in on this situation.

What will be interesting is what will happen when BTC balance on exchanges will start an uptrend. Obviously when that happens it means that a top either occured or will occur however the question is when will that happen with relative balance on exchanges increasing.

Someone did an analysis of this last cycle and I think the balance on exchanges started to increase and it was still far off from the top of $20K. So hence this isn't always an accurate indicator. When BTC hits $100K most likely more people will deposit into exchanges to take profit, but it doesn't mean $100K will be the top.

Any major investor will go through the history of the market and will very well know that they cannot trust any exchange for holding the coins for the long term. I usually hold the coins only if i am planning to book my profit if not i will not have the confidence to hold them in any exchange and everyone should be aware of the risk as well.

It's just a rumor and they can hide it or reveal anytime soon. But if the source isn't them, there's no need to be interested more than what they're doing such as the project Libra that they've already started.

It's like history repeating itself and the timeframe that has been set which could also happen by the given date. It's not about 2017 is going to happen in 2022, but what happened on 2017 hasn't happened yet and could happen by that said year.

I don't think it's wise to compare the market back in 2016 with today's situation. The Bitcoin market cap has increased substantially since then, therefore, the price is less volatile right now. The corrections can take longer, but they will be more lasting, so I don't think we're heading to the top of the bull run same as it was 4 years ago.
If we base our predictions on patterns in the past - then we should expect the price of $300k pretty soon, and I don't think that's happening in the nearest future.

We no longer need to compare what happened in 2017, because the bullrun this year is much different now. In 2021 Bitcoin is more stable
and volatile is not that high. Perhaps with many large companies investing long-term in Bitcoin, it makes the Bitcoin price less volatile.
Moreover, this year the bullrun has run longer, and there is a possibility that it could be throughout the year. Therefore many Bitcoin holders
do not intend to sell their Bitcoin in the near future, even though now the price of Bitcoin is very high. Because they believe the price of Bitcoin
will rise even higher at the end of 2021.

I still opted to be responsible for my coins than depositing them on exchange and trust and pray that I can always access it and they will not get hacked, by holding my coins and responsible for coins I can consider myself a responsible holder of course I should be educated and well known on how to protect my wallet and my coins.

If me not actively in trading, i prefer to hold coins in my wallet too. Maybe that is what people think especially if they really aim for holding although price start to increased. Because in condition like this, attacker sometimes really attack on exchanges and me don't want my money to stuck in a exchange when they get attacked.

I guess a lot of people are asking those questions?

The supply is less than approximately 12 months ago, less available on exchanges
and we keep hearing of institutional investors buying large amounts of Bitcoin which
means that more and more Bitcoin is stashed away and off the market.

Yet the price of Bitcoin is going sideways and trading around the mid 50's.

There is a lot of interest in Alt coins at the moment, ETH is finding new highs and
of course DOGE.... nothing more needs to be said there, so    the attraction of the Alt's
is greater than Bitcoin - at the moment

Noticed this even on localbitcoins where I first started trading in 2016. You'd get all these traders with 100 BTC+ volumes only a handful of trades. Myself to reach 10 BTC took a lot of trades, and today you'll see a veteran regular who might have started out same as me with 500 BTC+ after 3/4 years.

Anyone starting out now in most countries would be considered a heavy volume guy just to hit 1 BTC volume!

The amount of bitcoin supply decreases is natural, we know that crypto currency continues to grow from time to time. there are so many exchanges born that they also need a supply of bitcoin in their wallets. there are also several scam projects that eliminate a number of bitcoins that should have been traded. so out there there are still many people / institutions that hold bitcoin who knows how long they will sell it. so always get used to take profit to keep yourself from losses

Bitcoin is very bullish since late last year until today. This bullish season may even extend up to the last day of the year. There are so many great news about Bitcoin adoption. Not to mention that there are also very popular billionaires and financial figures who are already hopping into the bandwagon. And this is just the beginning.

I think Facebook is not the only company that is suspected to have already accumulated Bitcoin. There are probably more of them that are also hoarding in silence.

That must be a right interpretation of level of bitcoins are being left with exchanges. Moreover, there are lots of initiative on not using exchanges and web wallets for security reasons which might be having some impact in long run why we are not seeing exchange BTC balances are diminishing still anyway people prefer to hold on their mobile/computer/paper/hardware wallets which must be a good thing in all sense.

There are less possibilities as awareness on bitcoin's future must be very low in last 3 to 5 years but if they have planned after bitcoin setting ATH around $20K then they might be holding very low mount given that BTC prices and their level of risk taking money for a secret investments.

Many many companies definitely collected bunch of bitcoin I am sure of that. I know that they have to declare it for the shareholders otherwise its a SEC violation however it could be done over person and nobody has to know about that. Think about it this way, what if Mark Zuckerberg bought some? Or Jeff Bezos as well? These are super wealthy people with a lot of money so they may have done something like this and we may have never heard of it before.

This is why I think its quite obvious that we should not be focusing on the companies alone, we should be focusing on the people as well and I believe it could be something that is personal and individuals who are super rich may have bought some. Billions of dollars of bitcoin may have been purchased between these people, buying 50-100 million dollars worth of bitcoin is not that difficult for them and not that expensive, 40-50 rich people like that and we got ourselves billions of dollars.

There is a higher probability of individuals secretly hoarding Bitcoins rather than companies. I highly suspect that there are so many individuals who are really convinced of the future of Bitcoin that made purchases on their level. It is hard to convince the entire company to buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin is almost treated as an illegal currency. But if a person is really convinced of Bitcoin, he will do the buying himself alone and in silence. Mark Zuckerberg may be one of them.

I find it very interesting, sometimes we have to learn SWOT in trade terms, where the gaps in the issues that are bubbling up in the media will be the biggest chance that will happen in a short time.
As you said earlier, when investors take profits through the exchange, maybe the future price of bitcoin will not only reach $ 100,000, it will exceed that.

This is an incredibly bullish sign, after all it means that people are not willing to sell their coins anytime soon and prefer their coins to be in wallets they control, this is is good as exchanges were becoming too powerful and while this is only going to limit their power a little bit, it is a step on the right direction.

What I wonder is what will happen if the price goes down? Will we see those coins making a comeback to the exchange or will people prefer to keep their coins no matter what? Because in the case it is the latter not only this will slow down any crash but it will help us recover from it a lot quicker.

Bitcoin quick Update

BTC again trying to break the resistance area of $58,400. There are a lot of positive news. We are expecting a breakout this weekend or most probably on Monday. The breakout will turn the market sentiments bullish. BTC is Trading in the range for a long time and on-chain analysis shows a lot of BTC moved out from exchanges. The breakout will be huge. Hold your BTC bags and enjoy the rally.