Bitcoin Forum

The macroeconomic state in which asset value surpasses the real economy and easily loses the ability for sustainable development is the bubble economy. The bubble economy is often supported by a lot of speculation, and its essence is greed. To put it simply, in a loose monetary environment, asset prices deviated from the fundamentals, and then soared and plummeted. The bubble economy has repeatedly appeared in human history, such as the tulip mania in the Netherlands. Even now, many people think that the US stock market, Chinese real estate, and Bitcoin are the three major financial and economic bubbles. What do you think, do you think Bitcoin will become the biggest bubble economy in history?

Of course not.

At some points you could say that the price was in a bubble because people invest too early in anticipation of what the asset might become in the future. Something like that happened in the .com bubble and with the price of Bitcoin in 2017 but that is not to say it is an unfounded bubble like the tulip bubble.

Bitcoin has been in existence for 10 years and within those 10 years and until now a segment of our populations still think that Bitcoin is a big bubble. Waiting for 10 long years is convincing enough that there is something more to Bitcoin than what some perceive it to be. No bubble will last for more than 10 years and still alive, well and kicking. Everytime Bitcoin reached a big dip, people proclaimed that Bitcoin is a big bubble and is dead - yet everytime that happened Bitcoin comes back to life and fly. Now, if Bitcoin can really be a big bubble then it must be the most unique one - maybe can be called as a perennial or recurring bubble if you wish.

Anyway, we all have our right to determine anything to be like or like that so people who don't believe and hold Bitcoin will naturally have the tendency to believe anything not so good about it - human nature at display. History will soon reveal that the BIGGEST BUBBLE is the fiat money when global economy will be suffering from its own delusion.

The biggest economic bubble in history is fiat itself, not Bitcoin. I am referring not just to fiat money but to the entire fiat system also.

Borrowing your definition, fiat has very well fallen under an asset whose "value surpasses the real economy." We all know this. I don't know where you're from but I am almost sure that the fiat money you're currently using is not based on real economy.

Furthermore, fiat also "easily loses the ability for sustainable development." Of course, how could it be sustainable when it almost has zero basis for issuance? Central banks are printing and printing money no end without any basis. The money supply could be stretched infinitely.

Such is the reason why the bubble has already exploded in certain countries across continents.

Since BTC created till now, the price of BTC keep higher year to year that mean the value is not bubble. The asset called buble if the price back to the bottomed or the value keep decreasing. Value of BTC and blue chip stocks against inflation of fiat.

The market cap of the South Sea Company far exceeded the GDP of Britain at the time of its bubble. Its crash caused a major economic crisis. In order for a Bitcoin failure to have the same impact, it must be get much bigger first.



The South Sea Company was established in 1711. The price crashed nine years later, in 1720.

You can call it a bubble per definition. But you have to understand that bubbles have been in existence for centuries. And the thing with previous bubbles, is that they we are not able to recover after it crash, while bitcoin will go on a bearish trend and then bounce back because have something that those historical bubbles don't have, "halving".

So after the bubble has been burst in 2018,, we went on a bearish cycle. People calling bitcoin is going to die, and yet we bounce back and did reach a new all time high of $64k. We can reach a certain bubble point and then have a reset, cycle repeats.

Moreover, bitcoin simply has not achieved it's true value yet. So many corrections are already happening which means bitcoin is still in search of it's own valuation. Let me guess, this is never happening? The four yearly bitcoin halving, miners rewards updating each time, global acceptance in the future, bitcoin listings on the share market, so many factors are there which defines what will happen with the bitcoin.

I don't think bubble economy applies to the Bitcoin asset. It's volatile, uncontrolled, the money keeps coming inward and outward all the time. There is no fix asset valuation in this case, so may be bubble economy won't even apply to it.

No.

How about the arts? don't you forget that even a painting that doesn't have in it can cost thousands to hundreds of thousands into million and millions.

Even if the painting isn't from a very known artist. As long as the auctioneer will give a good description about it and have it on a grand auction.

OP, zoom out and look where the trajectory of Bitcoin is since 2011. The question should be, “Did Satoshi Nakamoto invent the first ever forever-rising digital asset history”? It can’t be a bubble until it loses all value and goes back to ZERO. Is Gold a bubble?

Bitcoin rise is made of smaller and bigger bubbles. Some are indeed B I G. Still... I'd say that most probably it won't "become the biggest bubble economy in history" because:

1. Bitcoin is not a bubble per se, it should "settle" sooner or later to much smaller price fluctuations, hence also smaller growth.

2. In human history things tend to "evolve", whether they're good or bad. So I expect that sometime in the future something even bigger will come to reality.

I think this kind of thing will stay here for awhile or maybe forever since FUD spreaders aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Also, if bitcoin is a bubble, bitcoin should've popped already in 2020 since most bubbles don't last that long and also a lot of people have made money in bitcoin so being a bubble is out of the equation already.

Bubble economy, speculation and greed all in the same  sentence, this is now sounding like a recipe for disaster.

But as far as I know, bitcoin has not reached its full potential yet, it's still growing and based on the laws of supply and demand, we have the supply side of things sorted...it's limited ,which leaves on demand to do its thing and it's value will go up then can we come back and weigh in whether btc is a bubble economy or not,for now its still young.

All of them, US stock market, Chinese real estate, tulip mania are hyper inflated. Bitcoin is not hyper inflated.  8)

Please tell me, after you spend a few seconds to look at those charts.

Would you call Amazon, Google, Facebook stocks have biggest bubble in history, at specific time of their serious macro corrections? Are their corrections better or worst than Bitcoin corrections?
Source this tweet (https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1396837047336329218)

Have you ever read that article (in May 2021)? Bitcoin is tumbling at the end of its worst month in nearly 10 years (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/28/investing/bitcoin-prices/index.html). If you have knowledge and understand how Bitcoin has moved so far in its history, you will laugh when you glance at the article title.

The bigger bubble will appear when the first big nation accept Bitcoin. The growth of adoption (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/o0zigm/whats_up_in_2022/) has been on a good track (see the screenshot) and it fits with the yearly lowest price of Bitcoin.

Look at it in macro view. You will see better adoption and higher highs for yearly lowest price.

You are wrong on everything except those Tulips. Zoom out to the maximum the U.S. Stock Market price indices, and Chinese real estate. Their trajectory is always up, only the Tulip market died in your example. Like Gold, real estate and the stock market, Bitcoin has also achieved a status that’s coming on its own.

The dotcom bubble was at $6.7 billion at its height, crypto bubble was at $2.4 billion, Bitcoin alone was at $1.18 billion. Bitcoin had multiple bubbles in the past and people thought that it's dead when the price crashed by 80%, and yet here we are, trading at above the last ATH. You can only say that Bitcoin as a whole was a bubble if it crashes back to the lows that weren't seen for many years.

Bitcoin cannot compete with the US stock market or the Chinese real estate sector.
Do you really believe that the Bitcoin market cap will ever going to beat the US stock market cap?
This is ridiculous.Bitcoin is capable of forming price bubbles,but we shouldn't put the blame on BTC entirely.
The "bubble economy" was created by the central bankers and their money printing machines.
The price bubbles of the modern economy would be way smaller,if there wasn't massive fiat money printing and increase of debt.

If they say it's a bubble then it's a bubble. But I think Bitcoin's bubble is justified because it has a very limited supply and can't be siezed by force compare to whichever had bubbled before. If anyone loses their private key then that BTC is lost forever, the lesser BTC available in the circulation. It's a bubble as it may seem but the market will still keep going whatever they will say. The price will pop and a few years later again, it will once again bubble.

Different technologies arise at different point of time in the history as like the Computers, dotcom boom, Cloud computing and AI improvements (after the internet became mainstream) etc etc. All had their run over the course of the time and when they reached the area where further major improvements is not possible, new entrepreneurs moved to the next major technology. Consider an example over here in this instance : In the mid 1950s to 1990s almost everyone were working on making the Operating Systems as user-friendly as possible. Once these were achieved by Apple and Microsoft, we moved on-to building our businesses on the Internet (or so called Interconnected networks) and hence emerged the dotcom bubbles where larger companies like Google were in the midst of survival.

Once the consumer base attained the enlightenment or what I would call as the phase where consumer understood what was happening under the hood, the companies started building cloud servers and migrated slowly to AI. This is where cloud computing and artificial intelligence came into existence. Along with this, blockchain came into existence with the introduction of Bitcoin by Satoshi in 2009.

Since the blockchain environment is driven by open-source movement, almost 80% of the so called blockchain technology companies copied the source code of Bitcoin and started building their own shitcoin and this indeed fueled the start of bubble mania. Eventually when the consumer base attain the enlightenment as like in the case of dotcoms and aren't driven by greed, we will view the collapse of 75% of the blockchain companies and only the strongest with the better technology survive. This will most likely happen in 10 years at the maximum and we would be experiencing newbie investors losing all their hard earned money through the collapse (this has already happened in 2018 crash) but the upcoming bear market will be more worse since Defi and unnecessary staking activities has paved way to enormous amount of scams.

Coming up to the point, I believe we are in the middle of bubble and the 75% of the companies which didn't build the company on their own but rather copied the source code of Bitcoin and did minor improvements would fail miserably.

Bitcoin is like the Internet but Blockchain Companies dependent on Bitcoin are like the Dotcom Companies.

Will Internet fail? No, not at all. Will the company build on top of Internet fail? Most likely and that is dependent on how bad the company is. I would never say Apple or Google or Microsoft will fail but many companies who weren't as superior as these Top 5 might fail.

You live in a more progressive society than me. I literally this year alone was almost in a conversation where people were in agreement that Bitcoin was only used by money launderers and cocaine drug lords. They were not being funny, either. They were top-of-the-line highly-qualified finance people with decades of collective experience and education. I just shrugged and said "you're right".

If bitcoin is a bubble, then satoshi is an ambitious anarchist because countries have been considering making it a legal tender and I think that bubbles don't last for decades in any recorded history.

Nicely put. With lots of governments involved there is little chance for this to be a bubble where investors, both large and small poured billions into. The phenomenon of abubble does not lat for long, while crypto has been around for nearly a decade, enough time for the bubble to burst but instead the space is getting more and more attention... that to me does not sound like an overall bubble that will pop any minute now.

Your charts are incredibly misleading. The vertical ranges of the charts are very different:

GOOGL: 75
AMZN: 6000
FB: 20
XBT: 10,000,000

Those are actually excellent use cases for Bitcoin, and may it never be stopped from being used for moving value across countries illegaly, and for buying drugs from the dark markets. The moment the authorities can stop Bitcoin from being used for illegal activities, is the moment Bitcoin has lost its main value proposition.

Unless it really happens then that's when we can really call it the biggest bubble but the problem is that I think it should've popped a long time ago because a bubble can't really sustain millions of demand and the current prices but bitcoin seems to be able to do it  without a problem.

In order for Bitcoin to become the main financial bubble, it needs to absorb all the funds of the US stock market at least, and possibly the funds of other stock markets in the world. But at the moment this is not happening and it all depends primarily on those countries who influence or, say, control Bitcoin. Perhaps there is such a goal, I mean for Bitcoin to absorb the funds of the US stock market and become a large bubble, but so far this whole process is slow and it will probably take another four year cycle for the crypto market to achieve this goal.

the main problem of not being able to be controlled and monitored, the implication is that the impact can be good and it can be bad. but the fear is that abuse, as you say, is used to pay for the sale of illegal drugs between countries where obviously no one can do anything about it.
may also be used for money laundering for corruption which will set a bad precedent in the future.
This is problematic, make there are many still many countries that do not recognize it as a legal medium of exchange.

Where are all these Newbie Trolls coming from?

Strange how they only Cherry pick certain things and then build a fictional story around it. We have had some of the biggest bubbles in history in the Fiat markets.. " Real Estate and Stock Market Bubble / Dotcom Bubble / Housing Bubble "

Thing is.... when we comment on this nonsense, we effectively give them exposure to spread their nonsense.. because the thread is bumped... but just drop some "reality" and true facts and leave it there to air.  ::)

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/

There are economists that have been calling bitcoin a bubble for a long time... when BTC is a million dollars, they will just say it's a much bigger bubble than now. ;-)

I like a bubble that keeps getting bigger and never truly pops.

Indeed. Use case is use case. In fact, governments trying to stop Bitcoin (I'll always remember the US sanctioning of Bitcoin addresses and how that actually led to more anon donations going to those addresses as a funny case) only proves Bitcoin's main value proposition, as you say. Marathon is only the latest to realise the folly of trying to stop/censor any part of the network.

I will say with certainty that YES Bitcoin will become the biggest bubble in history and break records like never before.

but to get to that stage, there are many tasks that we need to do, namely by continuously promoting Bitcoin to those who are still doubtful about the existence of Bitcoin, or if possible we must make them aware of the reality of the cryptocurrency industry. do not let Bitcoin run alone, we must also participate in supporting the direction we are able to contribute.

I think bitcoin is not a bubble ,butBitcoin has not reached its full potential, it is still growing and based on the law of supply and demand only, where the demand is increasing but the supply of bitcoin is limited

I'm not too sure, because Bitcoin is not like fiat which can easily bubble when all prices are stocked in fiat amounts. but even then it is still a gamble where Bitcoin is trying to be clashed by institutions that intentionally distract attention when high inflation occurs due to large-scale printing.

What makes you think that? If bitcoin is a bubble, then everything is a bubble. Bitcoin isn't a bubble. It is a life changing technology which solves a real world problem. You are not the first dude that compared bitcoin to tulips. Totally different assets, totally different time-frames. The world needs bitcoin. Bitcoin is inevitable.

Bitcoin will never be an economic bubble, it simply does not meet the normal standards of a bubble, the bubbles were tulips and other cases, those cases their charts did not meet the normal market stages, in fact, Bitcoin meets the market stages nominal, which is the accumulation stage and the Distribution stage, so that it is a bubble when it reaches the distribution stage, it never falls back into the Accumulation stage, this is the reason that explains why if the Dollar can be the real bubble that is financed thanks to the governments of the world.

Pariculously that is my point of view, in fact for a better understanding I recommend that you read the first chapter of the book "A random walk through Wall Street" by Malkiel Burton, so you can see what the bubble patterns are like.

I guess you claiming wrong info.
After the creation of BTC, it has just increased in the time period.
And the time is no far when BTC will be the one of the biggest crypto in the history.
Comparing it to the bubble economy is seriously hurting the BTC holder’s sentiments .
And regarding the asset price, no doubt BTC will be one of the best and rarest asset in the future.

Getting an honest review about Bitcoin from Bitcointalk is quite complicated. To be honest, we love Bitcoin, so once we love someone we believe them blindly. That's true. Listen, Bitcoin is backed by the community, not by any centralized organization, so you can't expect a sudden crash for Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin much popular due to high volatility, so pump and dump will happen always. It wouldn't consider as a bubble since we can see Bitcoin always recover from the previous position some days. The bubble has an end, but for Bitcoin, I don't think it will end. Either it would upgrade, or exist the same as it is.

stop equating Bitcoin with the tulip bubble because it's not 'apple to apple' at all
Bitcoin has real technology as well as a strong community so the price won't crumble like a bubble

As long as the Bitcoin community stays solid and survives even though FUD attacks then there is nothing to worry about the future of Bitcoin's price
btw, a bubble asset is just an asset with no real benefits and functions

Bitcoin already grew, exploded and then recovered from it. It's just very volatile, so sometimes the price is a little too pumped. However, I don't think it's similar to tulip mania. Tulips were just flowers that were suddenly in high demand. Bitcoin is not any material thing. It's a form of money, so when the price grows, it means that it's purchasing power is increasing. It can also be compared to long-term investment options, such as gold, that also has some price fluctuations, but nobody's talking about it being a bubble even though as a material it's not very useful.

Your question is totally justified and the arguments provided in the thread here why Bitcoin is "of course" not a bubble are quite weak. Of course, Bitcoin could be a bubble as much as Tesla cars could end up being a bubble market. Or houses, as we have seen in the past. A bubble doesn't make houses or cars go away and neither will it make Bitcoin go away. Tulips back then pretty much disappeared (from the investment landscape) because people realized that they are great to look at maybe, but that's it. Houses still give you shelter, cars bring you from A to B, and Bitcoin, the protocol, obviously allows you to keep a true ledger of facts on a global scale without any single entity being able to mess with the truth in any way. That has a lot of implications, many of which most likely aren't even known to us yet.

Again, Bitcoin the protocol may be extremely valuable, but who the heck is supposed to know how valuable? It can definitely end in a bubble, but even being in a bubble doesn't take away the protocol's ability to serve purposes that no other protocol could do in the past.

bitcoin is considered buble because of the speculation that exists in bitcoin, it seems to me absolutely, benefiting from speculation of bitcoin as if bitcoin is a worthless coin, but here we all always judge bitcoin from its technology, because there are still many ideas and concepts that can be explored from this bitcoin.

Why would anyone even think Bitcoin would end up being a bubble, except you do not understand the Bitcoin network. I for one do not even like the word bubble being mentioned with Bitcoin, there would be spontaneous plunges and price corrections, but Bitcoin being a bubble that would just plunge, without rising again like some altcoins do, is not possible in my opinion. Bitcoin is a long term sustainable coin, thus it can't be called a bubble, if you believe in the network and are a long term investor, there's no need worrying about FUD and the media spreading panic information.

Bitcoin is divided into 2 opinions, some say that this is buble , some say that bitcoin is the future, it depends how the person knows bitcoin, because there are people who only theorize there are directly benefited. Those are two opinions that are not wrong but I believe that bitcoin is the future.

Look at the numbers. You will realize that Bitcoin is not that big. The biggest bubble in the economic history is the US Dollar and this bubble is going to burst very soon with all the stimulus measures and big spending plans from the Biden administration. The federal debt of the US itself is around 40 times larger than the market cap of Bitcoin. Now tell me which one is a bigger bubble. Intelligent regimes have started to realize this and that is the reason why the government of El Salvador gave legal tender status to BTC and made it equal with the USD in status.

With the inclusion of the Corporates and private institution in their portfolio from last year means that they do consider it has a future and worth the money. So for the ones who believes in it should be staying invested and look for the good buying opportunity at the dips. Rest of them if want to be part of a successful returns in future should ideally be buying it unless they differ in the opinion.

As long as we know how to handle the situation there will be no problem at all. It can be a bubble like happening now but it already helped many to earn and gained profit. Who knows in the future the market will be fine again. We just need to wait or find other way to still earn from it.

The OP needs to study more about Fiat rather than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in existence from more than 10 years now and we only see more people and even the institutional investors are getting into it as the time goes. People need to understand what a bubble is and it is not like the whole market price can be manipulated by some people now.

I understand the skepticism around bitcoin, the underlying value and tech mumbo-jumbo. But, i feel it is much more than that. The technological underpinnings are sound and supply-demand gap will only increase. My blog at  https://abitcoin.ca/blog/Bitcoin:_5553644621985569331  (https://abitcoin.ca/blog/Bitcoin:_5553644621985569331) deals exactly with the issue that if Bitcoin is technological wizardry or a ponzi scheme.

Rise and fall is the norm in the market. Whether it is a bubble or not has yet to be considered. After all, Bitcoin assets have begun to be accepted by some countries, but it is clear that no matter how much Bitcoin falls, its price will eventually rise.

Tulips bubble had an infinite supply.
.com bubble had an infinite supply.
ICO bubble had an infinite supply.
NFT bubble had an infinite supply.
The US dollar bubble and US debt has an infinite supply.
Bitcoin has a finite supply of 21 million coins.
Gold has a finite supply on earth.

That's why I call ICOs, NFTs and .com sites as digital tulips. Though 99% of these failed, 1% of these did become successful. Bitcoin is not a bubble because it's finite compared to the other bubbles. Bitcoin is compared to Gold because of it's finite supply.

Of course not, and it is impossible. After so long, will anyone still think that Bitcoin is a bubble? If you have just started with Bitcoin and you have just started contacting Bitcoin, what you think is a bubble, this is still the past, but it has been so long, and still saying that Bitcoin is a bubble, is this a fool?

It can be if we see the progress of bitcoin since 2011 i have no doubt about ur opinion.

Not just bitcoin i think ethereum has the same chance like bitcoin to become the bggest bubble economy in history.

bitcoin is not the best candidate to take such a designation, but some individuals who are related to bitcoin and have nightmares about the future of bitcoin seem to dream of it.

Obviously bitcoin is still something new despite its 10 years, in reality it is still young its little adoption or penetration as a legal tender, but its +10 years and what has happened in recent months, despite the price current for some, it is far from becoming an economic disaster.

I've heard this a lot for 10 years, in fact many people have been helped by the presence of bitcoin, now more and more real businesses are accepting bitcoins and many stock markets are trading bitcoins, of course it is clear that bitcoin is not bubble economy.

That's all correct although I often asked myself whether it is 100% known how much gold there is on Earth. Yes it is finite of course, but do scientists or the respective companies know how much gold there is? I think that might be another advantage because with Bitcoin even my grandma knows how many there will be, but with gold I think hardly anyone, if anyone, really knows. Couldn't it be possible that somewhere in the sea a couple of miles below the surface gold could be found? To me there is still an unknown while for Bitcoin there is not.

We are hearing about the bubble theory for a very long time and it is the only thing haters who does not understand the market will call in the next 10 to 15 years as well and the best option is to ignore these idiots and move on rather than defending their claims as it will fuel them further.

To be frank, the price does not matter if we are looking for global adoption, price increase should come naturally because of global adoption rather than viewing the Bitcoin market as a speculative asset and since the view is different from the vision we had in the past we will see huge volatility in the price and still you cannot call them as a disaster.

I agree. I also wonder about how much gold that cannot be reached such as in the deep sea. While Bitcoin's final coin can be finally mined.

That logic is solid af.

In other words, there aren't enough bitcoins for everybody in the world.

This also explains why gold is lagging hard against bitcoin. Only a few years ago gold and bitcoin was at a parity. Bitcoin hit $60k later on and gold haven't moved much since than. When this correction ends and bitcoin gathers its shit together, I am pretty confident that it will hit $1.000.000

I don’t think so. I agree that it was in a bubble some time ago but I have seen people investing in it thinking that it will rise in value in the coming future. And in fact it did.

Well, they still think that the growth of bitcoin is unsustainable despite standing strong when the prices was still around the 60k. Also, why do they think that it's a bubble when the prices are going up everytime it goes down? Shouldn't a bubble not be able to inflate back if it pops?

The sudden rise in prices due to increased demand sometimes make small as well as large bubbles which burst out with the market crash.It is not the case with only Bitcoin but you would find some stocks overpriced because people rush to invest in them and when the market become normal it falls to the original prices and people call it bubble.But in my perspective bubble is something that burst once cannot be blown again like dot.com bubble which has never happened again.Bitcoin price volatility may produce small bubbles due to unexpected surges like the current ones but it will always have a utility to serve which will derive it's prices with limited supply.So in reality btc is not a bubble.

Big company's stocks or even US dollar more look like bubble than bitcoin. They print dollars non stop and it's not backed by anything. It's impossible with bitcoin, inflation is also impossible and it's capitalization is still several times lower than some big IT companies. Moreover it's backed by public consensus by people who believe it can be a great medium of exchange in future due to btc's advantages that we all know about.

When Bitcoin was just emerging, there was no tulip at that time, and everyone believed in Bitcoin. Then there was the tulip bubble, and everyone started discussing the topic of Bitcoin and Tulip. Later, Bitcoin continued to develop, and gradually Only a few people compare Bitcoin to a tulip. Although Bitcoin has experienced a sharp drop, it still exists, which shows that these so-called bubbles are not suitable for Bitcoin.I believe time can verify everything。

I think bubbles are synonymous with dumps on a large scale, and this happened to bitcoin after 2017, at that time a lot of negative news was circulating, so it gave an effect of fear to investors who wanted to buy it, because it fell to the range of $ 3500, but eventually bitcoin rose until we can see it today, and the sharp decline will not occur in the stock currency or forex, except for extraordinary events