Bitcoin Forum

1) high April 13, 2013, bottom July 1, 2013, then a lot of X's for the new year
2) high June 5, 2017, bottom July 10, 2017, then a lot of x's for the new year
3) high April 12, 2021, bottom ... july 2021, then a lot of x's for the new year



BTC will grow to 300 000 dollars soon, price became 1100 after 6 months:


https://c.radikal.ru/c04/2106/f5/4a1c5c4f279f.jpg (http://www.radikal.ru)

Sorry to ruin your pattern, but you neglected to include these ATHs:

4) high June 8, 2011, bottom November 19, 2011
5) high December 5, 2013, bottom January 14, 2015
6) high December 17, 2017, bottom December 15, 2018

Actually, he didn't.

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He said:
You said:
That December 5, 2013 high you are mentioning IS the lot of X's for the new year that he is talking about.

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He said:
You said:
That December 17, 2017 high you are mentioning IS the lot of X's for the new year that he is talking about.

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He did leave out the 2011, but that was before any halving ever happened.  He's implying that there is a pattern that follows the halving, so any pre-halving behavior is irrelevant.

Note that the post-year-end "bottoms" you mention ($150 on January 14, 2015 and $3120 on December 15, 2018) were BOTH still higher than the respective pre-July "highs" he mentions ($120 on April 13, 2013 and $2530 on June 5, 2017). So, if his "pattern" were to hold, it would mean that anyone that bought at the peak on April 12, 2021 would come out ahead if they can just hold on until the end of the year (even if they sold at the lowest low next year).

Disclaimer: I personally don't believe that the halving has as much effect on price changes as many people claim.  The halving is a reliable predictable known event.  The markets, therefore, have already taken it into consideration when determining the current price at any moment in time. Human minds are wired to see patterns even when they don't exist.  Is there a relationship between the dates of the halvings and the behavior of the price before and/or after?  Perhaps, but I'm not convinced.

I don't know exactly what "a lot of X's" means, but my point is that he is hiding events that don't fit his pattern in order to claim that there is a pattern

Also, there were other significant events that I omitted because they happened more quickly. Such as:

7 ) high June 26, 2019, bottom March 13, 2020 (though it wasn't an ATH)
8 ) high January 8, 2021, bottom January 27, 2021

I am in complete agreement, though nobody has yet described a concrete mechanism by which the halvings affect the price (other than psychological), so I remain skeptical.

"bottom" July 1, 2013 (mentioned by OP):  $81
"high" December 5, 2013 (mentioned by you):  $1151
That high is 14.21 times the low ( 14.21 X $81 = $1151)
There's your 14.21X (or 14.21 x's).

"bottom" July 10, 2017 (mentioned by OP):  $2260
"high" December 17, 2017 (mentioned by you): $19650
That high is 8.69 times the low ( 8.69 X $2260  = $19650 )
There's your 8.69X (or 8.69 x's).

For someone that thinks of Bitcoin as an "investment", instead of the currency that they want to acquire while they can because they expect to be spending it eventually, any investment that grows in value by multiples of it's starting value over such a short period of time is apparently exciting. And growth of more than 8 times the starting value is apparently a LOT of multiples (or x's).  


The fact that other events happen isn't necessarily proof that a pattern doesn't exist. He isn't necessarily "hiding" events. It's possible for those events to simply not be a part of the pattern.

For example, I could point out that every time I put food out on my covered porch, the local stray cat comes to eat it within 10 minutes. I might then use this evidence to demonstrate that the food attracts the cat.

If you then came in and pointed out that the cat ALSO comes to my covered porch every time that it rains (when there is no food)... OR if you pointed out that the cat has also shown up on my porch a few times when there was no food out at all... That doesn't mean that the food isn't attracting the cat.  I'm not "hiding" the fact that the cat shows up for additional reasons or at other times.  Those visits may happen, but they aren't relevant to the point I'm trying to make.

You really think that all this cyclces matters for BTC now? You really think that price movement of $1 trillion asset depends on what it did when it was $1Billion asset (2013 bubble) or $10Billion asset (2014 bubble)? Bitcoin is more and more exposed to global economy rather than its past events. Its "alternative investment asset" during debt bubble and real interest rate being negative 5%. Bitcoin is a legal tender in 6 mln people country now. What happend on chart 10 years ago when BTC was 1000x smaller and only nerds or drug dealers trading it does not matter now.

Hopefully that can be the case for the long-term, that bitcoin market is following a pattern of growth because that alone can help you predict how you are going to buy and sell your bitcoin whenever you want to.

The price surely does a cycle, but it's never predictable. That's why I hate reading about “patterns”.

I'm inserting a possibly appreciated image. As you can see below, the first epoch was mostly experimental one could say, then in Epoch 2, it was a clear bubble burst. It happened around the first having if I'm not mistaken. The third epoch revealed us again, that during a halving, the price pumped*. We're now, in the third halving, in Epoch 4, as experimental beings of this Blockchain-ized era.


I believe that in each halving, the fluctuation is smaller. I don't believe that it'll exceed the $300k this year.

The price cycle is just a term to describe the maximum amount that the price can reach and the minimum amount possible, knowing that the difference between the two numbers may be so large that it is difficult to make a correct estimate of the price and the price, once it enters that cycle, you guarantee that it will not fall below it Significantly.
So the price cycle is just a measure of the lowest price a bitcoin can reach and not the other way around. It describes the bottom more than it describes the tops.

Although, I do understand your point about patterns. Humans are almost designed to recognize patterns, even if its simply for memory serving purposes, and I also understand that the halving dates are known before they happen. However, I've always seen the halving as a positive event as in theory it should reduce the amount of Bitcoin being injected into the market, therefore volatility should steadily decrease as the block reward reduces or am I missing something?

I agree that halving is not as significant an event that some people make it to be but it is still a very significant event that affects price too. Of course there has always been two types of effects, the short term which only happens roughly 2 months prior to the actual date where the market is over hyped and a small bubble shapes which will pop as the date is reached.
And the longer term effect which is directly related to the new supply generation being cut by half. Even though bitcoin has a max supply we are still "printing" more bitcoin every day, these are coins that enter circulation and are mostly sold by miners to pay their bills. Consequently there has to be less sell pressure when we "print" about 900BTC per day in this period versus when we were printing 1800BTC per day in previous period.

Of course I should add that I believe that the main reason why price keeps rising is because of "demand" (not just the supply) which is both more people buying bitcoin and people who already had bitcoin buying more of it.

This is time bear and bull cycle will be different from those previous market cycle as we have now institutional investors who'll manipulate for their own profits. But history repeats in this industry and hopefully, price cycle will be much more longer than previous market whether it's bull or bear, IMHO. TBH, we're almost on the bear market as death cross is done and hoping to see a correction close to $20k , than again rebounding just like previous markets.  :D

I think no one can really knows about what will happen in next 4 years from now, if we still bullish or bearish, no one can realy I think the bull run that happen easy 4 years is not a cycle it is maybe  something like many new investors are getting in to crypto every year that is why bitcoin price is always increasing, i saw bull run last year 2017 and the price of that bull run is different from the bull run that we experience this year because we reach  60k$.

Say you produce a good and you sell it for 100 USD the unit. You have a complete infrastructure, machinery, workers, and all the costs you can imagine. You are in the business, so selling this good for 100 USD pays all your expenses leaving a profit. Now imagine that every 4 years you must reduce the price per unit 50%. You now have the same costs to produce the good + a projection of inflation for the next 4 years but you get half the money. What would you do? Increasing the good price to sustain your profit and maybe adding some value to face the next 4 years of inflation sounds like a good plan.

Once ppl realizes about this behavior, they can make money getting your product previous to the price rise + toying with the assets. Speculation starts and your prices are pumped beyond what you projected for the next 4 years.

It's pretty straightforward. Take a look at the historical graphics.  It is impossible to ignore this pattern ...

I would say even if this is true, that means we lived the high increase after the halving a bit earlier than expected this year and that's about it. Everyone is expecting a "18 months after halving" increase but we already had it, and that was it. I would say that we WILL go above 300k eventually, maybe not right now but we definitely will do it, however I am not sure if it will be today or not, maybe it will some other time.

Long story short there is a good amount of money to be made from crypto in the long run, but probably not this summer, just make sure you buy constantly at the bottom and then you can end up buying when it goes up to 300k. Another thing that you should be careful about is the fact that price will go up to 300k not in a quick manner which means you will have to keep all of your crypto for a long time, so do not invest money that you will need now, invest only the money that you know you can keep it there for years.

You are ignoring the sell pressure of all the bitcoins already in circulation. The sell pressure only goes up (even with the halving) as more bitcoins are added to the supply.

Looking at charts through your lens is scary not to hodl any crypto(bitcoin to be precise) in preparation for the big move! Call it a bluff or whatever  you like but this is very convincing am feeling bullish more than ever,time to secure the bag.

I guess after we get over the China dilemma we headed out  for the moon🌙.

One of the ways to predict the price of btc is to use a historical approach.  the price of btc is like a cycle that repeats itself.  so this can be used to measure the possibilities that can happen. purely from supply and demand.  havling affects the increase in demand, and the supply of coins becomes less.  as usual after the pump, the market will be bullish.  soon there will be a Fud and a bear market.  and so on until you lose / profit. Be careful

That's assuming that the demand (buying pressure in opposite of sell pressure) is not going up faster. Considering that bitcoin adoption is still in its very early stages and the demand is increasing, we can safely say that this assumption is not true.

If BTC exactly repeats its 4 year cycle, its patterns, then 8 to 10 years later, bitcoin whales with more than 10k BTC will have their assets bigger than national capital of some nations.

I don't believe the IMF, World Bank, G7 nations will allow BTC to achieve $1M to easily. Challenges from governments will be bigger with BTC new all time highs.

This year $150k, is it possible? I would happy and satisfy with that price.

because bitcoin is decentralized it doesn't need anyone's permission to reach a certain price. if there is enough demand for it then it will be reached.
you should also know that people were saying the same thing in each cycle for the ATH of that cycle. you'd be surprised to see someone once made the same claim as you but about $1.

By the time bitcoin down to $5K, is $65K possible? So at least this applies for now, mate.
So I would answer it probably with a scenario where there should be higher demand growth from now on. I'm sure you already know a lot about what can increase the demand for bitcoin in the market so you shouldn't hesitate any longer. The current widespread FUD about bitcoin has caused the bitcoin price to stay between $30K-$35K, if bitcoin fail to break through $40k in July then I'm pretty sure bitcoin will have another correction. $150K is currently an uncertain expectation, but there is a chance bitcoin will be able to hit it as nothing else can prevent it from rising as demand increases.

Everything in a free market doesn't need anyone's permissions to reach a certain agreed price, it is unrelated to its decentralization.

Does it? Bitcoin was falling for more than a year and a half after its $19k peak. Since the early 2020, it made a 1000%+, but I wouldn't say that it applies for now too. The only measurable things in a free market is the supply and the demand. Due to Bitcoin's supply predictability, I'd say that we can only make assumptions regarding the halvings; everything else is irrelevant.

I guess that El Salvador made a very bullish choice, but as a wise man would say — “hold your breath”.

Supply and demand are independent. The supply of bitcoins is always increasing. The demand is not. Thus, we have price swings. In the long run, both have increased with demand outpacing supply. I hope we can agree on those.

However, a halving is a moment in time in which the production slows (but the supply continues to increase and demand does whatever it does). If the halving truly has an effect on prices due to the change in production, we should see something happen to the price at that time, but we don't. The two big price increases we have seen 1 - 2 years after the halvings must be due to something else. Maybe there is something going on, but it can't be attributed to the production cuts.

I also notice that every 4 years there will be a bull run that happens. I also ask if this is still happen in the next 4 years because if this will happen it is more profitable if we buy it today and wait for another 4 years with another ATH. But there is no assurance that this could still happen so i invested a few amounts in bitcoins and altcoins for good and for safety.

Yes, anyone is free to assume while for most of the time we have seen many analyzes which are not 100% correct. El-Salvador may be able to increase demand in the long term but no one knows for sure what the future hold. We are currently in a bearish period after $65K was reached, while the price has been sideways for some time although $30K is a strong support. Apart from "hold your breath" it is still possible to do one more thing which is "don't be influenced by FOMO and FUD".

But I'm pretty sure the 4 year cycle has affected the pump and dump price. The halving won't set the price but it has at least increased demand and affected price.

We don't know if the cycle peaked however at $64K, the only way we know we are in another cycle is when we lost at least 75% of our value like in the previous bubbles. Basically going from $1100 to $150 and $20000 to $3000. So far we only lost about half our value. And there is a chance we might get a repeat of 2013.

In 2013 we peaked in April, and went from $250 to $80 or so, then everybody assumed bitcoin would retest the previous ATH of $35 however we bottomed in July and rallied hard in Oct-Nov and peaked at $1100.

Not saying we are in this cycle however unless we break $30K and head to like below $20K this cycle might of not ended yet. Might just be summer slowdown.

People look at early adopters and say they were lucky to buy Bitcoin with a few cents, $1, $10, $100 or $1,000. Then later people will look at buyers at $64,000 and say they are lucky by buying Bitcoin below $100,000. I don't know when such statement will be made, this year, next 4 years or next 8 years. It will appear definitely.

I think it will because the S2SF model is still validated and it says the top price would be $288,000. I only hope for a half of that price.

Supply and demand are not solid in crypto market because people can join, get out in a seconds. It is different than stocks.

It is stimulating than in previous summer dumps, from which bitcoin x10 its price. So if it repeats that x10, from $28,800 bitcoin will achieve $288,000 that is the price given by S2SF model. Coincidence?  ;D

https://c.radikal.ru/c10/2106/44/ad51991bfec7.png (http://www.radikal.ru)



Btc dominance

https://c.radikal.ru/c42/2106/e1/c45810b43a0e.jpg (http://www.radikal.ru)

That would be pretty scary for anyone,,, even for me, to see another 75% loss of value now because the old ATH was 20k and we made a new one only at 3x,,, which I know logically does not mean anything but because we have seen 10x and 20x and much more in the past, this does not feel like it is enough at all. Hope we do not see $15 again though.

Can anyone explain this? I don't have an intimate understanding of the graph, is it the same as the other image? About bitcoin dominance slowly shrinking overtime? Is it good or not?

Fear is a logical thing that happens to all humans when they are experiencing something that is currently being carried out, but we are given the opportunity to analyze well and see the journey in the past. from there we can draw that conclusion, so if we look at the Halving period (4 years) that the first and second halvings have occurred, which results in a year after the halving and at the end of the year a renewable ATH is formed.

This year's halving is 2020 meaning the peak is late 2021 and not the beginning or the middle of the year. I still have faith that the 4 year effect (halving) will occur later this year and the price will definitely be higher than 2017 ATH, probably 10X-20X times that. we have to be optimistic and wait for it.

Is this what we called Halving season mate?   and this is what trend mostly believe and i am one of those .

so meaning after this great pump we are aiming for dumping season but i think this will last at least this end year of 2021.

The momentum now is increasing again mate.

In short it is just simple mathematics and exploiting that math to get a higher rank for shitcoins.

We have this wrong characteristics defined for cryptocurrencies which comes from stock market (not wrong there) called market capitalization which is computed by multiplying supply and price.
Then we have this false sorting of cryptocurrencies based on this false characteristic on many websites pioneered by coinmarketcap.com.

In math when you have z=x*y and if you can't increase y (price) you can increase x (supply) to increase the final result z (market cap). And when you have sum(z) where you add all marketp caps of thousands of altcoins you end up with a massive fake result.

What this chart shows is a ratio where it divides bitcoin's market cap by all the market caps of all the altcoins combined then they call it bitcoin "dominance"!

This is fake because majority of altcoins have fake circulating supplies. For example the top altcoins ETH, XRP, BNB,... all have massive premines which are coins that are NOT in circulation but only owned by their creators when they instantly created millions out of thin air during launch or any time they want. But the market cap is computed using all those fake supplies too. So for example a shitcoin that has a price of $0.6 suddenly gains a massive market cap!

You need to realise its easier for bitcoin to go from $1 to $10, then $10 to $100, then $1000, etc. However its not going to forever keep going up 10x each cycle. When we were at $64K, you need to realise that most people don't have $64K in their savings to buy an entire bitcoin. So they only buy partials.

So someone who bought BTC at say $5000, he might sell an entire coin to maybe 10 different people. And those people eventually if bitcoin keeps going up and up will sell each of their portions of a coin to 100 other people and so on and so on. The market cap is going to grow so much it won't be sustainable.

So just because we did 3x, that is still pretty impressive.

I agree that bitcoin may test $300k with this cycle but I really could not figure out what you are referring by "after six months" and 1100. As per my observation also, bitcoin market is having repeating cycles because we are having halving to be repeated for every four years and pumps and dumps are happening in a pattern so everything will occur in a recognizable pattern for sure.

Bitcoin prices may get doubled or tripled from the current levels before we are entering into the 4th quarter of 2021 and then the 4th quarter of 2021 will be magical as real FOMO will happen at that times.

History does tend to repeat itself in cycles, eh?

It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that we do operate in 4-year cycles. The current cycle is likely at its tail end by the looks of it as markets have cooled off significantly and FOMO has been replaced by a substantial amount of fear.

Long term investors should not fret whatsoever. I can say with relative certainty that with the current developments around DeFi in general, BTC will be central to that movement and will play a major role come the next bull market in another 4 years time.

I think that Bitcoin dominance decrease only shows that that there is either someone that takes a major part of a market due to update/release (Ethereum in our case) or the beginning of an alt season. To bad we just dont know how this altseason will represent itself. Will all alt grow significantly or they simply wont go down.

I agree with topic started about Bitcoin being cyclical. I think that we say and will see growth only after halvings. Right now we will face ups and down for a very long time. So be ready not to lose control and sell everything.

I still have the same faith too,,, although I have to admit it is just based on the cycle repeating itself and absolutely nothing more. Fundamentals I guess are of course stronger than ever but I cannot really tell if it is anything to justify a higher ATH than we have had.

It does feel like 63k ATH is a little bit underwhelming right?:)

I do not think that 4 year cycle is a must, and that is what we have seen during this increase. Instead of waiting and staying around the same price at halving for a year and increasing like hell, the price actually went up a ton for a year and then when it suppose to go up it started to crash. Do not put yourself in the same logic as the people before you, history repeating itself is not a guarantee and you will only be upset if you do not be ready for anything else to happen.

There have been a ton of people out there who end up with making predictions based on the history and then they have ended up losing quite a lot of money, why? Because crypto doesn't move in cycles each day, it is similar that is true but doesn't follow it day by day, so what happens is something that suppose to happen, happens a week early and you end up losing money because of it.

I look at all good coins, if at least one of them has fallen to the bottom of the price, therefore the entire market will not fall lower from this time



https://d.radikal.ru/d39/2106/0d/72af3b4c4ad4.jpg (http://www.radikal.ru)

Well said. The assumption of 4 years cycle will become invalid now as we have witnessed massive support by Institutions and adoption of Bitcoin to reasonable level  during the last quarter of 2020 to 1st quarter of 2021 which is very encouraging sign for long term investors of Bitcoin, though currently Bitcoin is passing through correction phase which is expected to end soon and we will see new ATH by the end of 2021.

Also because they think just because they think the cycle repeats in the same pattern and that they got the right call. Cycles have happened and they have been similar but never exactly the same,,, so far if you are patient enough the patterns hold but you can never really predict when the performance matches the past.

And again,,, we cannot guarantee the cycle repeats.

It is a logic which worked perfectly for first two halving then why not for the recent halving? 4 year cycle of bitcoin market is set of events like halving happens in the mid of year and then by year end bulls come to action and then next year fully dominated by bulls and then bears come to action in the following year and then sideways market happens for 3 year and then again another halving will come in the 4th year.

So, if you are good and able to recognize some patterns on which how market trades then you can plan up your long term holding. Honestly I did not make use of such pattern of market because I needed to watch and test for last halving but planning up for this time ATH and waiting for December month ;).

At the least you can still predict it a bit even though the time that it happens isn't similar. I think that if you in some way knows what's going to happen next, you will still at the least have a point of reference that you can use.

Well,,, anyone can do a prediction, we who live in this crypto space know that plenty of people are willing, and the whole space encourages that kind of thinking. Just because a cycle repeats and makes our predictions come true in 1 or 5 years, does not make us any more expert than we were before we made the prediction:)

But I understand what you are saying for sure, and points of reference are all we have!

The market is completely unpredictable and the charts don't follow the past history always and the main factor that will derive the Bitcoin prices is mass adoption.When people will enter the market they will demand more of it but the coins are limited to 21 million only and people will not be willing to sell which can reduce the coins in circulation in current which can boost the prices high.Other say if the 3-4 government and some other institutions invest billion dollars in bitcoin that could derive insane rush to btc so charts pattern would change immediately.So this is my own prediction and according to that you can expect say $90-$100k by end of this year as we are still away from halving but till then we would already be above our limits if we HOLD.

Some says that the market repeating the history every 4 years but what's always happened is nothing because it becomes very unpredictable and those who's expecting a good results sometimes end up losing money, perhaps we need to accept the fact that it's just a coincidence, wherein there's no significant results and strong proof that can prove it will gonna happen always in every 4 years..

my analysis of the bitcoin price cycle every 4 years, it's not a coincidence nor a game, but they invest in time deposits. so once every 4 years they make a profit by selling bitcoin and then make an issue as a form of price correction, so they can re-deposit at a very low price.

I am against people making "predictions" as well but in the sense that there are too many that make it sound like they know something others don't, that is the problem I have with it. I am not saying that making predictions is bad, it is bad to tell people like it is guaranteed and we have too many people doing it.

Saying "bitcoin may go up according to this data" is fine, saying "bitcoin will go up because of this data" is the wrong thing. Unfortunately there are too many people who do not understand the difference and claim that they know what is going to happen and write their foundings and predictions like it is going to 100% happen when in reality they have no idea if it will happen or not. It is not easy to live in the crypto world as someone who knows the difference and still get to see people who think they know the whole thing every single day.

We don't know what will happen in the future and what it will be like. To predict the future, of course there is cause and effect that becomes a benchmark for predicting the future and there must be an assumption to be able to make a decision to buy or sell our investment, be it bitcoin or other altcoins. if we continue to wait for the definite and do nothing so that the result is nothing, there will be no loss - no gain.

If the next cycle falls under the same date and time, I think that it's enough evidence that bitcoin is repeating a cycle that can help you predict the right time to buy and sell. My only problem is that what happens if there really was a cycle and we know how to do it with the market, will the pattern be the same because people will have a different movement than the last time?

We can't really say that for certain, we don't have enough data to conclude, bitcoin is like 10 years old, so the sample data is so small. Maybe we can see different cycles as the price goes up, the growth might slowdown, or there will be one supercycle instead of 2 every 4 years. So there is no definite pattern for now. All we can do is speculate and try to predict the future price the best we can do.

Love to see this chart history, just missing those older days that I made same mistakes all over again. The opportunity once lost, could come back but not that easy because we need to wait for more months or even years. If we'll have to wait for the same pattern, I guess 4 years is too far to take a journey. $300k was too big, maybe let's just optimize our predictions at $100k stability before this year 2021 ends.

Worse,,, most of these people other than the actual traders themselves and analysts whose main and actual job it is to be making prediction, they even are just having the stuff written for them. I know because one of my colleagues main job is to write predictions for random CEOs to push out to all those crypto news outlets and if they like it they pick it and add it as part of a big article.

So it is all not even to manipulate the market but for exposure but it ends up being used to manipulate as the media picks what it wants to suit the agenda.

That's fine, if you do not want to make any decisions then do one, and if you do not want to make any predictions then do not make one. The problem here is that if you want to make any trade you want and if you believe that it will go up or down then you can make your own movement and nobody will tell you anything about it. However if you are telling other people what to do that is a hugely different thing and that is a big shame.

I believe bitcoin will go up, but I do not go around and tell people that bitcoin will go up and they should buy more, sure in the long run we all know it may have a good future but who knows if it will reach 10k before it reaches 60k again? None of us know that so that is why I do not tell people to do this or that, it is just not something I am comfortable with. Do whatever you want with your own money but do not tell other people what they should do with theirs.

I wonder if this pattern is really a coincidence or there is really a pattern for Bitcoin price. Due to the volatility, we can't predict what will happen even if we analyze the movements very carefully. If this pattern continues in the coming years also, then I'll start believing that such thing exists.

bitcoin differs from other assets in the absence of manipulation by the state, people buy it as they are used to buying, so the cycles are repeated

But there is still manipulation by some whales in the market right? obviously, it's open and free for everyone to play so still manipulation can be there at any given time (bullish or bearish cycle). I'm not really sure of the pattern though, the only pattern who have is the bitcoin block halvening which happens every 4 years and that's where we speculate that cycles do happen because of this one. But as the market markets and the supply is going down, this pattern might change over time.

bitcoin moves because the market does it all, so there can be no intervention from anyone let alone the state. what the state may do is prohibition, which greatly affects the state of the market. so bitcoin is a bit disturbed because many investors are afraid of losing, if they can't be affected, bitcoin will be stable.

Yes, you are right, about market manipulation, that is their goal because the market's goals can be influenced, especially since many investors are still unstable and can be influenced by it they exist and seek to profit from something like this.
the halving that occurs every 4 years can certainly achieve renewable ATH and it will always happen and seems to have become a habit, because the first and second halvings have been seen and even the third, although it has not yet reached its peak which may occur at the end of this year.

https://c.radikal.ru/c37/2107/b4/f6a5b5da053e.png (http://www.radikal.ru)

I doubt that price moves in cycles but people keep telling this to everyone. Look if you keep doing this and believing that this is true then eventually one day you are going to lose a lot of money. Realize that bitcoin is not something that is constantly dropping, it is something that is not constantly going up, it is not a pattern and it is just luck that it looked similar to each other twice and that's it. By this calculation we should see a HUGE increase in 2024-2025 as well (because it was 2020-2021 when price went up" and I doubt that it will happen.

Even the difference between 2017 December is not the same because add 4 years to that and you get yourself 2021 December, and yet we are not even there now and still managed to go up, it was around September-October 2020 when the increase started, let's say November to be sure and that is about nearly 3 years, even less than that. So patterns are not always same.

Cycles would relate to waves but its not duplicated or tracable in some simple way.   There are many factors behind movement, amplitude and other variables have to be considered.
Iam not a great fan of analogues like the world is just on a map and GPS says the travel plan has us going this way, it wont be like that.   The four year plan to price movement I generally agree with & the scale of moves so far suggest we arent really done here despite appearances.

It's hard because of a few reasons.

1) The growth for any coin is highest within its first few years. Bitcoin has seen like 50,000x growth, if not more, in the last 12 years but if the same growth happens in the next 12 years, it just sounds ridiculous and funny.

2) As the market gets mature there are other projects ready to outplay Bitcoins and although I am sure no other crypto will ever have a bigger market cap than Bitcoins, all these altcoins do eat up a lot of funds that come into the market.

3) It's entirely possible that the government has banned the use of bitcoins within the next 4 years and hence although insane possibilities are there, I don't think the same growth can happen in every 4-year cycle.

i agree that prices bitcoin have same movement or charts every 4 years because of halving in the first degre , the halving of past year 2020 , we dont know if the bull run finished or not , the two propability can happend and 65k can be the highest then prices can reach 20k even 15k the other propability is bull run can be in pause situation then prices can reach 100 k  , traders dont know the future of prices bitcoin the broblem of bear market is the continuation for long time over two years , waiting the prices for going up is very hard

although there is no certainty that the cycle will repeat itself, but strangely we can see if it is like a habit that continues to happen and in my opinion what happened this year is somewhat worse than what happened a few years ago, I still remember 2018, China too prohibiting crypto transaction activities in their country but it only slightly affected the price of bitcoin at that time, but it is different from what is happening now when the Chinese government banned bitcoin and it had a huge impact on the market and in fact the price of bitcoin even fell almost 60% from its highest price :'(.

We do have our own observations in the market but with those chart gurus out there then they are the ones who would be elaborating these similar patterns and something like that
which we can really say that there is some sort of pattern but everything is still unpredictable.

Cryptocurrency can fucked up TA from time to time whenever theres a news or event that do happen in the market. There is no such cycle because everything is varying with demand or acceptance.

Every year will always be different with the cycles that occur but this is a good year where ATH 64k has really peaked and only a 50% drop from the highest price for me this is not a problem if there is a good strategy why not take advantage of it now the price is already quite low in the long run if we hold it.

Every trend is bound to trigger something new and this is bound to happen again, will 100k be reached in the near future or in the next 4 years?
If you are more confident then collect it from now on and forget about it until the savings build up in the future.

I think for these graphs to be useful one key piece of information is missing - the attrition rate of Bitcoin. Over time we are steadily seeing more and more Bitcoin being lost, which will never be available again in future. This could be seen as a damaging element of Bitcoin because it has a fixed amount in circulation and nobody really knows how desirable fractions of a decimal will be to holders in future. There is so much left over "dust" in wallets and people dying every day without leaving access to their fortunes hidden in wallets. That may very well push the price up, but it is also making it less usable as a functional currency for conducting regular trades in future - which should always be considered the bedrock of value that lies behind it. Otherwise you just end up with fickle speculators who also end up making it less relevant over time for it's original purpose.

I would say yes and no that 4 year cycle repeats the price. There is always something that pushes the price up. The price dont just grow up everything 4 years because of nothing. Otherwise it will be to simple to get rich holding crypto. Last years Elon Musk helped the price to grow up. 4 years from that, boom of ICOs has brought a lot of money to cryptocurrency and pushed the price up. Dont know what is going to happen that will push the price in 2024, but it is definitely going to happen. Mystery of number 4 :)

I do agree that the drop here in this season is not as bad as the 2018 increase, that was just horrible. We are talking about a drop from 20k to 3.5k and that is about 82% or so drop, whereas this year we had something like 50% drop and that is a lot better. I know 50% is still a huge drop but we weren't 60k all that long, we were mainly 50-55k most of the time and only just less than a week at 60k which means that we shouldn't be even calculating as 50%, we should be calculating it at around 40% or so drop at the very worst.

That is really a lot better and I feel like we should be feeling very lucky to have that this year as a bear run, it is nearly nothing compared to all the other huge drops in the previous years. I do believe that we could definitely reach to a level where we can definitely make it to a level where we are 50k+ again and it shouldn't really take that long.

I don't see it very near to see Bitcoin price reaching $300k. It would be really awesome even if the price reaches $100k in this year. When it comes to $300k, I think that we need at least 2 or 3 years to see it happening.

That's a Huge expectation mate , Bitcoin can't even Break 70k and now in  6 months time will reach 300K?

Nope this is More than Impossible to happen and will only brings frustration in our part if we tend to believe.

Even in another 4 years 300,000 is not coming mate because 100k is i believe enough value for bitcoin in another 5 years time .

Though i must admit that I don't want to exaggerate things and i also dont wanna fall from traps.

not so long ago bitcoin couldn't break $4k and all of a sudden in less than a month it reached $6k which was about 2x higher. and in a year price reached $60k which was 20x higher.

why do you have a hard time believing that price can go up another 10x in a year? have you never seen bitcoin charts ever?

Bitcoin is in months of discount that started since mid of May. If people miss the discount which lasts a few months, it is fault of them because the market gives them enough time to think, wipe out hesitation, prepare capital and get in.

If they reject great discounts that show in front of their computers every day, over months, they should feel regret.

https://twitter.com/libertariman/status/1416589234505322499
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1407620265475989506

I honestly think that there is a good chance that we are talking about a huge advantage for people who realize that bitcoin is something that is definitely not going to be low for a long time, it is going to go up very soon and even if it doesn't go up "very soon" it is still going to go up.

There will be a lot of people who will buy bitcoin at 80k in the future saying "I wish I bought at lower" and I can promise you that some of them are around here right now, they are saying "I will buy later in case it goes even lower" and that is what they are doing right now, they are basically focusing on the future and how bear can continue and the price could lower, so they will buy there, which they may end up buying way too late when the price goes up a lot and that is when they will buy up. Of course there will be some lucky ones like us, and we should feel awesome about it.

Even 50x it's possible because nothing is impossible if the market is in a bullish period. I think it's easier to predict the price movement after the bull run than the price during the bull run, based on the trend, after the bull run, the market will struggle due to big corrections and I'm confident that we are at the current stage now.

I don't want to disappoint you Guys as I al also at some point bully about bitcoin but i don't wanna frustrate myself from expecting then fails.

I have done enough back in 2018 and now i just want to let things happen along the way , and Mind tell you i am still Holding my bitcoin but of course exaggerating is not part of my views in the days now.

But Yeah Bitcoin had proven this many times before so yes probability is there .

Personally, 10x of whatever n price Bitcoin's at has always been as unlikely to happen in either direction. So today, I find it as difficult to see how we could see $3,100 as it is for me to see $310,000.

Not that I'm discounting either -- we've got to be naive to think there is such a thing as impossible or even what it means to stretch "reality" in Bitcoin.

Best of all, over the next 12 months, 10x in either way works out for me =D

This 4 year cycle is not a necessity, but indeed an economic principle made for the stock business or trade business in other words, it is said to be a 4 year period. so it's only natural that once there is a big market price correction, because this cycle returns to the bottom position again.

This is the first time i am hearing there is a cycle in the stock market but it depends upon the performance of the company and since you said i need to check whether there is a cycle for the stock market because i did not notice that till now but the reason everyone knows about the cryptocurrency market is because every 4 year we have a halving in Bitcoin and we all know the market will rally because the number of coins in the market reduces considerably.

The market awards to patient participants and the impatient participants will are losers. In any market, the rule works so does the crypto market.

It is what people bought Bitcoin at $10,000 in 2017 and gave up after Bitcoin crashed before the Segwit hard fork. Then, they felt regret after Bitcoin topped up about $20,000.

If you are not good at trading, read charts and can not do accurate entry and exit, hodl is the best. If you miss a chance to take profit, and hesitate to exit early before price turns to down trend, keep hodling. If you exit too late, the point you exit would probably be bottom.

There will certainly be a bull run in 2024 imo. But the question really is how far the extent of the bull run will be.

Each time the amount we grow by has decreased. It makes sense since the market capitalisation of BTC has grown exponentially and it takes significantly more capital to move prices each time round.

I certainly don't expect a $300k BTC in 2024. A more realistic target would likely be $75k or $80k given the trillion dollar valuations assigned to crypto at this stage.