Bitcoin Forum

Surely Bitcoin will crash to and below $1 soon. This "rally" is nothing but a temporary distraction. Just wait.

http://www.mrsec.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/still-waiting-skeleton.jpg

Care to make a wager with me on that one? I see the massive bidwall has been moved up to 2.90 now. Seriously put some coins on this.. If you are right, I lose not so much and if you are wrong then big win $$$ for me!

If you wont put up than shut up. Put your money where your mouth is.

it's called sarcasm

Soon the irrational bulls will declare victory.

Hey, Blitzboom! Where 'ya been? Lange nicht gesehen! :)

It's swinging wildly another time, but with all the volume between 2 and 4, I suppose the "crash below 1" panic fans are losing likelihood of "success" as we speak.

3.11 is a personal "depression barrier" for me. It's psychologically an interesting price position, since it's about the point where short-time chartists should not be buying. Before the last big drop, selling above this value has become increasingly heavy. Reaching this shows there are people involved who aren't just in for money from current swings.

And, as I write, it has been broken. 3.12 USD/BTC. If this isn't a sign that people see BTC as more than quick day-trader's money, what is?

No at this value the price was knocked down by a single large sale.

proudhon sock puppet?

Why? I simply stated what happend. No I don't think its gonna go down from here if that's what you think, but I wouldn't bet on a huge rally either.
But yeah the price definitely is going up for another notch if nothing earth shaking happens.

Once Bitcoiners understand that it is very possible that we'll see double digits and beyond again, many will switch to a buy & hold strategy instead of trying to get quick profits. This will obviously accelerate the uptrend because there will be less selling pressure.

I was forced to do some day trading on the way down because I would've lost too much otherwise, but now I managed to go all-in at $2.3 which is for a long position. I'm not planning on selling anytime soon. This means that I don't really have to care about the price that much and I can focus on other things Bitcoin-related, instead of staring at Mt. Gox Live.

I do have a stoploss if the doom scenario of going below $2 seems imminent and I do also have a gradual sell-off plan if we enter bubble mode again. In fact I encourage everyone to keep selling when the price starts rocketing, sell even a little, please. Bitcoin does NOT need another period of the price overshooting skyhigh and then coming back down like a rock.

+1.  The current situation looks exactly like the price ramps which began in April.  Prepare for takeoff.

Yes - it's suddenly an oddly relaxing position to be in. For the last few months I've been wasting my life watching the price like a hawk - but I too bought in the $2.30s (and the $2.50s and then $2.80s) range so now I can relax a little.

I mean before the last big drop, so something like Nov 1st to Nov 12th. I'm aware there was a massive BTC-flooding of the market afterwards, probably caused by one or two large sellers, initiated by an 50k BTC unlimited sell order. But that was just random, and not what I meant by "heavy selling".

My pell grant refund is coming any day now, which means more mining equipment.  I'll be doing 2Ghash easy, then it's looooooooong for me. Mine & hold.  Spend some for xmas maybe.  But no USD in between.

You bulls are something else. Bitcoin rides from $30 to $2, and back up to $3.00. And you guys are all partying. Your only hope is the manipulator. Is he trying to kick start the price again? Or is he going to do his raise the price and pull out, let it drop back down, buy, then raise the price again. Who knows, as he has done this in the past many times. How long will he continue being the main support for the push higher with his bidwalls? Its all up to him, that is the gamble you will have to take. He will try and not be too predictible, so don't expect to try and time his moves.

When the manipulator pulls out of the market, the buying side of bitcoin is rediculously weak. I am talking about 200-500 bitcoins per .05 increment. He is the sole pusher here.

He may be able to support bitcoin to $3.00, but I do not know how long he can support the bitcoin ecomomy at much higher prices.

If you guys were smart you would sell into this stalled rally, and get some money from this guy.

Actually that was profit taking from the last dip from the people who realized they missed the rally.

The sediment is that it has to go up in a certain (hyperbolic) way, that hasn't happened yet but once we are there I think the same thing might be upcoming. Idk where it ends this time perhaps  above 4, perhaps not, tomorrow is the day possibly. Lots of selling after that.

If there would be no hyperbolic move we could reach double digits again, but that's something that never happend b4.

I can't wait for it to go to $5. That will be the beginnings of an EPIC short rally.

Soon...

Do you really believe beginning of the end gonna be tomorrow?

No.  The beginning of the end started quite a while ago.

You know what I mean.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this rally is starting to come to an end too. The past day, the market has become extremely overbought. A correction is looming, but i don't think we will be going back to anywhere near the $2 mark.

If it is then all the way. It that gargantuan wall gets crushed there is not stopping it till we have new lows, Imo.

bears gonna bear

There IS a mountain of asks building up!

Looks like we might get to see how serious the owner of that giant wall is.

Made this chart to determine real demand by editing out the large bidwalls.

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/8817/scrcap.png

vs

http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/5782/36120221.png

You may be right about what happened before, but it's definitely not the same guy.  I think there's some new interest in buying in.  People are continually discovering bitcoin, so of course they need to get some somehow.  Overall, I think there is a little dance going on between early-miners selling-off and new users buying up their scraps.  If you look at the bids vs. asks right now, the numbers on the buy side are as dense as I've seen them.  It's blog posts (http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/11/bitcoin.html) and magazine (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/1/) and newspaper articles that cause the subtle up-swings.  I'm surprised that nobody sees this. 

http://hydra.psychology.uiowa.edu/btc-20111201.png

I don't think doing that edit is very fruitful. Leaving only the poor and tiny players in the chart is pointless and doesn't represent "real demand". A wall doesn't mean it isn't real demand, it could be just as real but from a bigger buyer. And on top of that a lot of the demand is outside the depth charts, because they don't necessarily have any orders in.

I do think that a lot of the demand is from a single player but not nearly all. And that particular player has shown no signs of wanting to exit the market, he is simply attempting to drive the price where it's easiest to drive to. Recently it has been easier to push the price up because the general mood of all the other players involved is optimistic.

As far as the rally is concerned, there will of course be a correction. There is always a correction. But $3 broke and that is a serious development, a very positive one at that. But $4 is much more important than $3, to declare a true reversal $4 has to break. But the longer we bounce between $2 and $4, the bigger the movements in either direction get. Bulls are now more bullish than ever since the peak, but on the other hand, if we go near $2 again, the market might get more bearish than it has ever been and drive the price to a new low.

excellent point..

LOL

Subtle indeed.. Edward was wondering why people get bullish when the price increases 50% after a triple bottom. If that's not price development to be happy about, I don't know what is. The fact that Bitcoin was at $30 in June is OLD news at this point.

I don't call anything involving 6 figure bids subtle.

I was sarcastic about the subtle part.

bad choice of words.

interesting to see what it does next.  If it breaks well over 3 instead of hovering, that's a pretty good indication of new blood i think.

My sarcasm detector must be malfunctioning.
The issue is what people say is usually nuts, unrealistic expectations to say the least.

Some are talking about new all time highs while at the same time it isn't even certain it is going to recover at all.

I think we are going back to about $2.60, the site of the first large bidwall. A lot of activity occurred there. If we break down through $2.60, it's going further down. If it rebounds from $2.60, then we can expect more upside.

Do you never get tired of that Jonathan? It seems like such blatant propaganda.
You're probably right, but can you not try to be a bit less sardonic about it?

So you expect the wall @2.9 to pop?

oh btw the panic sells orders just got raped.

Nevar!

http://i.imm.io/clwj.jpeg

Yes, they were ate up quite quickly.. I think we have something going on right now... :)

There is very little going on actually. The silence is creepy.

We had a strong bullish onslaught yesterday and now things are plateauing. It is likely that the manipulator owns a significant part of the ask walls, so he is profiting nicely from the coins that he purchased when the price was low. It was relatively easy to pump the price then, but it becomes more and more expensive to do so as it increases. Once profit taking is complete, the price will fall again as the bulls cash out and take back all the fiat they pumped it with.

I think some of those new bidwalls are new bitcoiners that actually want to get into the market, and haven't figured out that it's difficult to buy any volume of bitcoin without executing market orders.

And this is too funny not to share: it's easy to tell if you've used the ignore button correctly. :)

This is a 60 day heat-map that shows particular areas of price 'heat' or activity. It is a very good indicator of real price support confirmed by actual trading and not the mtgox depth chart, which is very misleading. You can see a lot of support at around $2.60, and a lot less at $2.90. Thats why I think the $2.90 area will be tested, and if it fails we will slide back to at least $2.60.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6615/60daysmall.png

I agree 100%, sir. Sorry you think I'm too sardonic. I love that word by the way, and good on you for using it correctly.

-Jonathan

ROFL!  ;D

It looks quite warm at 2.60 we should go there for Christmas to escape the winter gloom.

Oh Snap! It goes both ways!! XD

Is this your work? I found a similar thing on the forum which I used a while ago (unknowingly by the author) for orientation, but the webspace where these images were hosted & updated went down. I would really like to have access to something like it again ...

I sense something completely different.. maybe what you call creepy silence is what Im picking up...

Personally.. I think its about to make a major move.. somewhere.. lol

It was too fast in last two days - it now need to stagnate for some time for the trendlines to catch up the actual price :)  Nervous time - that 50K wall somehow does not diminish that anxiety.

The Bitcoin grammar police, to correct, and serve...

Dont forget you posted this at the bitcoin watch tech page..

LOL. U GOT ME! OH NOES!

You heard it here first folks..

The reason for the resistance at $2.60 was because someone decided at that point to dumb around 50K coins all at once. The manipulator's bidwall ate most of it up, he then pulled out after that dropping the price down to $2.00. The only significance the $2.60 had was all because of this person dropping 50K coins at that very moment.
 You have to realize the market is held up by the manipulator. Its total manipulation and speculation at this point. No reason to use bitcoins for any other purpose.

I just calculated this interesting statistic using trade data pulled from the mtgox api:

Price 24 hrs ago:   $3.01
Current Price:       $3.10
Day High:            $3.14

24hr Buying (bid) Volume: 33536 btc / $103443
24hr Selling (ask) Volume: 35696 btc / $109202

The price is still above the opening price 24 hours ago, but there has been more selling going on than buying to the tune of 2160 btc, or $5759. Yet the price is still higher than it was at opening. Is it just me, or does this seem odd to anyone? Or are my calculations wrong somehow?

That is certainly possible if more buyers put in a lower order in the hope it is getting filled, factor in competition you end up with rising prices. It could also be people pushing the price if they have bought larger amounts earlier and place bids in order to make the price rise.

What I mean though is that 2160 more coins were sold over the past 24 hours than were bought, but the price is still somehow higher than it originally was. That just does not seem right to me.

Could it be a result of covering up larger volume 'dumps' with smaller volume rebuys? In other words, sneaky profit taking?

EDIT: Correction, make that 2997btc ($8315) more selling than buying.
EDIT2: That last spike to $3.12 reduced the gap again to 2308 btc / $6175

Anytime now. Enjoy your last minutes of hope.

https://allencentre.wikispaces.com/file/view/skeleton.png/61950286/skeleton.png

kudos to Blitzboom
with a minimalist post and a squeletton, you created a 4 pages thread

Weekend is coming.

http://withfriendship.com/images/i/40819/Human-skull-picture.jpg

Everyone should remember that the rally to 3.85 occurred during THE WEEKEND!

Ghost bidwalls are disappearing... are they moving up?

Doesn't look like it.

I wouldn't be surprised by a mild weekend retracement.  Those who did some profit-taking at $3 should have enough USD to buy the dip.  I would only expect very mild selling pressure since the mid-term technical indicators have turned positive accross-the-board (MACD, RSI, EMA, ..).

Bouncing back up from the dip, $3 will be broken (i.e. it will surge past; stalling at $3.10 like now means $3 is only being tested). 

Breaking $5 would all but confirm a reversal.  But that will require new deposits.  So I do expect some weekend dips and mid-week rallies, the correlation seen during the run up, but failed during the downtrend (when there weren't new deposits).



+1.  I also remember the other heat-map chart.  This new one is great and I hope to see more.

I have a guts feeling that we are entering a unprecedented volatility region, wild swings were encountered the last time from 2 to 3.5 but this time there are the big players involved.
All it would take is some counterpart to the person who owns the bidwall @2.9.

I think this time we are heading for 100% swings between 2 and 4, with the final result uncertain. Of course there is a possibility that the bidwall remains unchallenged in which case we would have stagnation and slow downwards movement till we reach the wall. Anyway I liquidated my long position, the amount of selling makes me doubt further upside this weekend.

Unless of course the buywall pops, that did cause a panic sell off every time.

Was thinking the same thing.

I'll be watching out for that bidwall, but don't expect any movement further than $2.99 or so.

weekends are terrible!

I have tried to warn you. The more joy you get, the more pain will come.

The irrational bulls have declared victory, so surely we have topped out now at 3.38. The crash to below $1 will come anytime now. Just wait.

http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20060728094921/uncyclopedia/images/6/66/Skeleton_praying.jpg

Heh, amusing thread.

I was getting quite used to the mid-$2 range so this is interesting.

Blitzboom is talking nonsence. How could he know that? He just want's cheap coins

Crash to below 1 USD incoming. Nagle was right. This is a huge bubble.

The irrational bulls are declaring victory.

This thing is done. Just like it was in November. Get out while you can.

3.878 was not the bottom. S3052 is right. There will be another big selloff very soon.

Just wait.

http://i833.photobucket.com/albums/zz252/Marhla1989/Creepy%20Horror%20Halloween/skeleton.jpg

After some cheap bitcoins eh?  ;D

No I think he's getting bored waiting for the market to make a move.

There aren't many Bitcoin left for sale. Get them before they are all gone.