Bitcoin Forum

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

On-chain news is positive, but TA charts look grim ... Time to tether?

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3JKz8dj9.png

What is this? Elliot Waves? From most of the TA that I used in the past, Elliot Waves was the least reliable one. It looked good when trading in hindsight however you have no idea which wave you are currently in the present. You might react too early or too late and the trade won't work out.

I think BTC will trade sideways for most of Sept and in Oct/Nov I see it making a big move. It will either be up or down, I don't see it trading at near $50K for long. $50K is still a great price and if it doesn't move soon, alot of the people who bought in the $20-$30K area will take their 100% profits and sell and move on to something else.

Yes. I was exactly thinking about this these few days.
TA looks bearish but onchain analysis looks bullish.
Wonder which one will play out.

No.,.. this is obviously NOT Eliiot Waves....
If you don't even know what Elliot Waves look like, I wonder how useful your opinion on Elliot Wave could be.

have no idea what OP's chart is as it's not candles. the chart is very deceiving, zooming in and out only made me confuse which way the market will be going weeks.
you know it's tether time when the market goes down. if you see it coming, don't ask anymore just sell for tether.

So it means we are somewhat in the middle? And it's obvious that by looking at the chart  So significant movement, volume is not that high, pattern is sideways.

So it's really hard with pattern will play out, which one gets invalidated by it. So I do agree that we should be careful or at least be for a look out of a break out run on neither side.

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

This is just base on probability and this analysis is base on the previous market conditions, in my prediction Bitcoin will go in the opposite direction, we are not going to see any fallback soon but a rise in the price of Bitcoin before the end of 2021 we will see Bitcoin breaking a new all time high.

Thank you for reminding us to be careful in this situation, as we do not know for sure what will happen to bitcoin.
Yes, we could only be careful with anything, especially if the bitcoin price is down to use that time to buy more bitcoin.
But hopefully, the price will not go down too deep and only stay at above $40,000 or it will sideways for some time until the bull run is coming.
The chance for bitcoin to go up or down will be the same because we can make predictions about where bitcoin price will be and from the @OP image, the price can directly going down if the price can not get more support.
Yes, be careful will be the thing that we must concern.

In short, long term holders are not affected by this so called experts because, obviously, they just invest their money and look at it in 5-10 years. Others might have forgotten that they have invested after all.

I'm saying a good run today though, very weird, it's weekend, it's supposed to be slow day but the price goes to $48,500. Another indication that it's hard to call the market even at short term.

OP, as we are fellow plebs, I believe you are using the wrong chart. That’s a whale’s chart, the only chart mere plebs like us should use is the maximum zoomed out chart. 8)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9-JhjIXIAArTVV?format=jpg&name=large

The chart is by William Clemente.

@OP I think that's a short term of history repeating itself. You could be wrong or right, this is a two-edge sword market but in my opinion, I'd rather focus on the long-term speculation and what could it play out. Technical analysis like daily as you provided was for traders but investors aren't gonna buy that they'll DCA and that's a fact and if it drops be thankful for an opportunity once again before it makes new ATH.

This is exactly me. I do not care if it is 50k tomorrow or 30k, for me they are the same thing. I know it matters in the long run as well because if it doesn't fall then in the long run we will reach to my levels a lot quicker and crypto staying strong for the next 10 years without a big drop would mean a lot more money for me after 10 years. However, let's be honest, there will be falls, there is no scenario where there are no falls and because of that I believe we can see some falls that will not bother me at all.

What is the point of having a hope for no falls at all if we know that it will eventually fall one day. It could be tomorrow, or some other time but we will see a fall one day and that is why it will not bother me because I am not investing for today or tomorrow, I am investing for 10-20 years down the line and that is why I will be fine.

It's just a matter of time before the market turn to bearish trend but the price we have today is not going to make the market bearish. Maybe if some bad news suddenly appear that might start the market to decline slowly and correction follows then some weak-hands too. That's how the market in the past move but it might be different this time since people learned their mistakes already so we just have to wait and see what's going to happen. All of these people keep blabbing is hundred thousand dollars price before the end of the year. But I have a doubt that would going to happen within this year.

Given enough time...both ;)

There’s a lot of time to analyze Bitcoin, and yes the price are getting more into the sideways trend and if you have a good timeline every time you invest you can be more profitable.

If the bearish trend will happen, better to ready your cash money so you can buy more and if the price continues the bull and break all the resistance, that could be a sign that taking profit should happen soon. Time can tell, with Bitcoin I’m still bullish on it.

We have people who have spewed TA since the beginning with about the same accuracy at a coin flip.

Fact of the matter is that Technical Analysis is not good for long run forecasting and it certainly is not rigorous.

I personally think that we're going to consolidate around this level and not necessarily drop down much further given the institutional demand that we're seeing (MSTR for instance has been continuously buying up the stream of new coins minted).

This analysis give me a good thoughts that made me remember the worst mistakes of the past, but it was an amazing situation that gave me more strength to overcome same scenario to exist again.
But for the TA projected here, I guess this isn't the typical bearish trend which I saw at old times. History don't repeat itself, but there's always a similarity of pattern that's why we will have to be more smart and decisive whether we're going with the flow or not.

History never repeats itself but it rhymes ~  Mark Twain

TA is a range of probabilities or scenarios that might occur, of course we cannot know future events for sure both natural and political but the assumption is a market with human participants contains recognizable traits that repeat in a pattern.
   The macro economy is a natural phenomena because its determined by people ultimately and people are natural in their actions despite our consciousnesses and ability to adapt in many ways.  The reasonable conclusion is 2021 chart patterns will resemble Dow theory 19th Century market moves because the fundamentals are similarly the same.   The FED and other entities dont acknowledge this natural pattern, price fixing is considered superior and imo the whole subject of economics in study has been eclipsed for decades by politics and nationalized spending with debt (not trade).
   My take is we ultimately revert to natural patterns not under the control of the FED, thats very bearish because its reality disrupting their multi decade day dream like the Greek debt crisis and can occur in any country with excessive debt vs exports as there is no natural reason to hold debt in exchange rather then alternatives and BTC is one of those alternatives in a speculative way.

Your chart OP doesnt have to resolve in a bearish way but I agree pullbacks are quite normal overall.  I'd say we are bullish right till market proves us otherwise, usually there is alot of notice given such as a slowing to price action and price moves below moving averages etc.    We're on the 2 day average and above almost all others, it would seem BTC is not near stall speed at present.

  My biggest or simple take is watch the weekly average for a mood to price

That chart looks like it is the Elliot wave partten with the ups and downs represented in numbers. Elliot is just like any other indicators represented in the chart and we are not to solely rely on on it without checking out in combination of other indicators. However, I don't think the price of bitcoin will go down to 30 before the year ending, the longtime hours are still strong for bull if combined with MA and the adoption rates.

It's not an Elliot Wave chart but rather based on historical trends which so far appears to be repeating itself.

Note that this is not a crystal ball with a definitive result, it could easily pump to over $50k but it serves as a notice to always check both sides of a coin. Bullish on-chain stats (reduced BTC supply on exchanges) Vs Bearish TA. The week ahead could be make or break time

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/8/8JV8r4dH.png

Charts are just the historical record/movement to see but not the trend that we're able to see in the future. Even before, I'd never believed that History repeats itself unless if there are no changes happening around but look, we are in the changes all the time and even tomorrow we can't simply tell what will happen. TA's is good in trading but not in the way that we can fully rely on this as most of the time, it won't happen in real time.

Very nice chart, we should always look to another side, I love how you analyze the chart, basing on previous price action.

To be honest, this is extremely possible, breaking down below $40,000 is possible but this gonna be a long battle with bears and bulls. As you can see, the monthly candle is fast approaching, so the monthly closing will be the decider here.
For me, if monthly candle will close below $40,000, $36,000 - $30,000 is very possible.

Everyone could make or create a chart, just simply plot them and analyze the previous price in the chart.  But that is the OP's opinion and I respect what he believes is about the price.  IMO, still the same way of predicting without a technical chart, a technical prediction is still the same guessing the future price and there's no guarantee to forecast an accurate result.

There could be a downside but in my mind, I'm still on the bullish side and I dont think Bitcoin will down below $30k within this month.  It's surrounded by a good news ATM.

However, still, no know one knows, and also Bitcoin will remain unpredictable and it could be pump or dump price, it moves without any direction.

Yes its possible since the hype subside and the BTC dominance is below 50% that's why we need to be careful upon believing on such word that we might rise up to $100k this month since its quite not possible to happen. Many things need to consider and might we can get close to the given figures around but for me I'm ok what the result show after the end of the month since for now I'm not doing any holding and best option to do is to do a short  trade bitcoin and alts in the market.

There is no guarantee that history will repeat as before, but the possibility for that will always be wide open so if history repeats, we can know what we need to do. We need to be ready with anything that can happen later while we see the bitcoin price is not down for more and stay at the current price now but it could be down if the bad news comes out. The hold price will be at $45k and if that is a break, I am afraid that the price can go down and it could lead the price to reach $40k. But I do not expect that will happen later as bitcoin is still stable at this current price, so I hope that the price can back to $49k-$50k this month.

Whether they're candles or lines, trying to make something out of charts is always confusing. Patterns which you could make out of charts are always deceiving. You can make thousands of patterns out of hourly, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, etc charts. Every little zoom in or out are analyses you could create out of the picture. If you don't want to feel dizzy, you better stop guessing and hodl.

Selling for tether does not necessarily make things better. Stick to Bitcoin and hodl.

There's a pattern that I see but I don't think it's really that scary of a drop if it ever repeats the pattern again, either way, a hodler won't worry too much because a dump will always be followed by a bounce back.

What? Another bargain sale so soon and one more opportunity to get in at 30s before we really gear up on inertia en route to 100k? Stop playing with our feelings!
 
Seriousness aside, until we spend at least a week below 40k, and at significant volumes, I really don't see much cause for concern. Q4 is almost upon us, we're going to be getting some clarity on economic figures elsewhere in the real world (aka the bad news they've been brushing under the carpet's going to come spilling out). Dollar panic. Eurozone chaos...

History may not repeat within a year. Even right now bitcoin bulls are not doing good, I am not expecting prices to breach below $43k levels which must be a stronger short term resistance before $40.5k levels. I am seeing most prime media is talking about bitcoin and one government already adopted bitcoin still we are not moving up as expected for some reasons. Bitcoin is always known for surprising us at unexpected times hence we may see bulls into actions at any time.

Like many people stated across this forum, I guess we may not see anything below $40k levels hereafter forever. It is like this year's final ATH would be around $180k to $190k levels and then bitcoin may fall back up to 70% which might be above $60k levels.

Bitcoin is once again under 45k. However, I agree that this is another bargain discount for all of us who know what happens to bitcoin. We all know that it drops but then it recovers and that is why there is nothing to worry about, we are doing fine and we will keep doing fine in the long run. There is no doubt in my mind that we will be 50k+ soon, it may take a while and I could be wrong but the only thing I am wrong about will be the date, not the price.

This is why I believe that we are going to be fine, it is going to be 50k+ and buying from here would mean that we could make nearly 20% profit when that hits. If it is quick then making 20% that quickly is a great deal, but if it takes a whole year that is still 20% in dollar gain for a whole year and not bad in financial world if you ask me. This is why I am feeling fine about the future.

I am interested to know, OP, if you indeed made the right decision based on your analysis. There was indeed a good deal of price fall, not less than $5,000, since the day you opened this thread. I am curious if you indeed tethered because you are seeing something grim on the chart, or you continued to hodl because you might be wrong in your prediction in the end.

It seems the price has already reached the bottom and is now beginning to recover. This must be the time to do the buying.

Looks like the OP was correct somewhat. We almost touched $40K. Pretty nasty selling especially at the China open. What we are seeing now is the Evergrande market crash which is affecting all global markets and Bitcoin is following. The reason why it’s significant is because people are expecting another housing crisis crash like in 2008.

People are comparing Evergrande to Lehman brothers. They think that once they go, there will be a domino affect and others will follow and we will have a nasty bear market. However this is only a guess. I don’t think it will go that far. We will see what the developing news is this week.

A good observation on the Eliot Wave, It might really happened if BTC close below 40K this week. One thing I notice on your 1st Elliott Wave Cycle, The position of 1 is not right it should be place after an end of a cycle which definitely not on your screen shot since it looks like the price before the point 1 is less than your point 1 value.

That's what it seems. He must have dumped his coins before it even happened. Well good for him. It does look like everyone who has moneyto invest is waiting for it to happen though.

The ones we follow on youtube are saying it's going to be $100K this year, well it's not happening. In 3 months I'm not sure if this will even lift back to $50k again. Its breaking my heart  :D

Not a bad call. For hodlers, a move from $47K to $38K isn't much of a selling opportunity. For traders, especially those wanting to short the market, a good call none the less.

Especially now the 50 Week MA has moved upto $38K levels, this being where support is found isn't that far off accurate either imo.

it looks like bitcoin will experience a sharp second market price correction after it happened last april, now the market price is starting to bearish again. The current price correction doesn't put too much pressure on investors, because the market was only affected by some negative rumors and was rejected by some other rumors that bitcoin will have another bullrun in the near future.

The funny thing about charts is that we had a person with golden cross approaching TA at the same days as this was posted. So, it depends on what you are looking for, sometimes some people look at a chart on the same day and see a big drop, sometimes another person looks at the same chart and see a big increase. It doesn't mean one of them is good and the other is bad at reading, it just means that market agreed with one of them and disagreed with the other.

This doesn't make anyone any worse, it is totally natural to see a good chart and have a bad market afterwards or vice versa. People do not trade based on charts most of the time, whales do not manipulate depending on charts neither, it just happens and that's it. We just need to get used to this by this time and I understand that it takes time for newbies to get used to it but you have to, charts do not dictate what happens.

Hopefully most of you tethered in time, yes i done most of it prior to the crash but TA is just guidelines and can't be relied upon all of the time. There are times to be 50/50 and at other times mostly tethered or mostly in assets. TA just helps us know when to be more cautious, along with crypto & market news around the world. Lots of big events recently so best to keep an eye on things like bearish Evergrande FUD and a future bullish ETF

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YfCTa9xq.png

I´m one of those who believes that sometimes the patterns repeat themselves if the circumstances are similar, the only thing is that now we are in a pandemic and this is one of the scenarios that had not occurred before, in terms of technical analysis it is variable, In the short term many things can happen and due to volatility and anything can happen, this article shows the following:

https://i.imgur.com/xwBeVYT.png
Source: https://u.today/btc-ada-bnb-and-dot-price-analysis-for-september-25 (https://u.today/btc-ada-bnb-and-dot-price-analysis-for-september-25)

$ 47k or $ 48k is undoubtedly a great possible option that can happen, however many are also waiting for the bears to do their part and lower the price more so that they buy in the dip, really the market at this time anything can happen.

Agreed that a pandemic is something that we have not witnessed in the bitcoin timeline which throws the TA slightly off course. However, there are always external factors at play and somehow bitcoin seems to follow the same pattern. Two cycles isn't much to go on, but we can kind of guess what the likely direction of bitcoin will be, even with 2 simply lines

Most agree that on a macro level, bitcoin will eventually rise. Easiest and safest option is to keep buying with DCA and just hodl, or store it in a DeFi product where you can earn interest

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/xH5Msd9Q.png

I had always thought that Elliott waves are very good at describing what already happened and not very good at predicting what it will happen because you cannot really know how big the movement is going to be beforehand, so whenever I see an analysis like that and then I look at it six months later they are always wrong, however those that use that theory to try to predict the markets then just adjust the number of waves for their prediction and suddenly they are right again in their minds.

Yeah, why not keep buying and wait for the recovery, if ever you what to short (not really advisable), then it's good, but smart investors knows that it's better to hold for long term and keep on buying when the market price is on red.

Just a couple of days before the end of the month, another bad September, cycle repeating itself again. But if we go on that argument, then we will eventually recover and hit another all time high before the end of the year.

This is a subforum about Speculation where people are interested in short-term price, because they want to do some short term trading.

The fact that a simple short-term bearish opinion gets so heavily criticized here as some sort of apostasy against Bitcoin just means that this forum is not a good place for getting information about Bitcoin's price movements.

You should Named the author of this TA so we can asses if it is reliable of a BS one though I really hard Buying TA nowadays because since then there are very few that brings me good result and that i profit from it.
But if ever that this is a sign of another Bearish market then let it be because i have closed my Eyes recently and deleted those market signals so i may stop checking the market and get ready for holding long term.

Be careful! That has always been happening...
To point out what will happen next is just an speculation, we can't sure of that and I don't even think about "history repeats itself". It is either the chart tells something it looks bearish in the coming days, well, that we have to prepare and in fact, we should have to that no matter what.
If I buy during this correction, probably I buy more when bearish come. It is haven't too worried about as it for sure the recovery happen after this dump. Keep your trust intact, that is simple.

I will have to agree, you will see that my critique to the prediction has nothing to do with the prediction being bearish but about the method used to get it, in this case Elliott waves which at least to me seem completely unreliable when it comes to predicting what it will happen, however if someone uses more traditional methods and they come to the conclusions there are bearish conditions I accept it, after all we know that after a bull market a bear market follows, we just do not know when it will actually begin so at some point bearish predictions will come true and we need to be ready for them.

And luckily, we didn't hit the $30k'ish as the OP has pointed out (although this is just a possibility again). So we now have a new trend for October, and it looks like extremely bullish.

And those who short bitcoin got REKT recently as millions worth of dollars have been liquidated in matter of hours. So that's how unpredictable bitcoin is, but looking at long term or at least at the end of the this year, it looks bullish.

did it happen? does the history really repeat itself? i doubt it is   ;D

after 3 weeks look at the market , though still lower than the ATH yet the movement is still strong and effective.
and also the opportunity of hyping is always on the other side because investors are moving inside here and there.

but be careful for what you are wishing because this might go sideways lol.

And I agree, I think that we are about to see the bull market that will define this market not only for us but for the rest of the population as well, the adoption we have had since the crash of 2017 has been great but I think that with the circumstances that are surrounding bitcoin right now bitcoin cannot do anything but to go up in value, and when it begins to do so it would be unstoppable and that is when all of those that still had doubts about bitcoin will understand that bitcoin is here to stay for a long time.