Bitcoin Forum

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Seeing the funding rates above, it seems clarified that btc had a 'fakedown' and was a bear trap, but how low do you think will it go? Is the trap game over and we lost the 55k buying opportunity? Or should I wait for much lower value of btc to get an entry? I am still confused about that MtGox releasing their customers' btc tomorrow, which is making my nerves go wild when I think of what may happen.

Source (https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate)

You should've bought when it's down on $55k. But we don't know if by this weekend it's about to recover and we're seeing it moving up again to $60k.
As your thinking about the release of mt.gox funds, people who are eligible to receive it might dump it as soon as possible, is that what you're thinking about them?

If we pay attention at a glance maybe we will not be too aware of the details they hide. But whether this is a trap or not, caution must be the main focus. It could be that behind this MtGox has a big trap plan. Long-term investors should be aware but this is still a matter of speculation to watch out for in the future. What is and changes after this time we see it.

I have a thread already to discuss the MtGox matter - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5370600.msg58417739#msg58417739

However, I do fear that they can dump the market to those points we have no idea about. Because if $57 million worth of seized cryptocurrencies are being liquidated by US Department of Justice (https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/almost-57-million-seized-cryptocurrency-being-sold-victims-bitconnect-fraud) and this is what we are seeing, then what will happen when we will see $3 billion (almost 53.6 times bigger) worth btc coming to exchanges?

If the MtGox funds are really bound to be released tomorrow, there is a huge percentage that people who receive the funds will dump hard on the whole market and just be done with everything related to bitcoin. From the looks of it, it seems that the market is legitimately trying to avoid the potential crash that is abound tomorrow. If the rumors are not true, price may climb back up and those who sold would probably kick themselves for believing the rumors.

I guess that's what we should really anticipate as these btc's have been there for so long and the owners of it are longing to get what they deserve and sell it as soon as they receive it. That's going to be a big market mover however, I think that the move of dump will be temporary as there are a lot of whales that are also waiting for the dip ready to fill their bags with those cheap bitcoins. In return, the market will recovery slowly just as what's happening lately.

This is interesting to watch. We don't know the veracity of this rumor. But it seems it influences the market. No one can tell what's next for bitcoin so what you can do is just keep your eyes wide open and act according to your instincts. Hard to follow the fud or the market's sentiment. You should also have your own plans for yourself to prevent huge losses in case.

Platforms like celsius network are known for offering near to 20% interest rates on their crypto based accounts. 20% being a great interest rate has often made people wonder what the catch was. Later it was revealed that platforms like celsius network can be associated with (and share liquidity with?) short sellers and speculators who might profit from the price of bitcoin and crypto declining. Apparently, that is the trade off associated with high interest rate earning accounts there.

I think there recently have been many short positions associated with bitcoin, which may have played a role in its recent decline.

Within the last few weeks the united states has passed another stimulus bill. Markets and investors are becoming worried about inflation, the US debt ceiling, job markets and the overall strength of the US economy. Fear in markets usually translates to a decline. In theory, it should also translate to greater profiteering opportunities, which can be found in a crisis.

Well the sooner this event happens the better, let the sellers sell and if its
a mass sell off the effects will only be temporary  and they will realise their
mistake soon after.

I really cannot see a mass sell off, the community has matured and have a
long term outlook.

$55k was the bottom IMO, we are already back up to $58k+

It's too early to say if this is a bear trap or not, the price went from $55,000 to $58,000 in just 24-48 hours and one thing to take note is that it happens on a weekend. So I'm not that confident of a the reversal as it may attract inexperience traders.

So let's see how it goes next week, if the price continue to an uptrend then this could be a reversal and we might see $60,000 again and the market getting on the bullish phase again.

As I invest for the very long term, I do not find myself in the dilemmas you are asking yourself. I don't care what Bitcoin does in the next few months, what matters to me is what it does in the next 10 years. I buy regularly and that's it.

If you look at the past, the most profitable thing has been that: those who bought and forgot, or those who bought regularly have come out much better off than those who gambled on guessing what the market would do in the short term. And this is a rule that applies to other types of investments, not just Bitcoin.

Regarding what is going to happen soon, I still believe that we will beat the previous ATH before the end of the year.

It can go down but it can also go up. Funding rates and all make predicting more difficult and biased, but keeping myself aside from futures and margin, I see the opportunity to buy at the low I take it. Yesterday price was 55k and today it is 58k - profit in the air if you seized the chance.

Possible that lower than 55k might happen. I dont think below 50k will sustain for long, surely there will be buy orders at a round figure like that. So a correction will be seen there. That might be a good place to buy again.

The point is not take in that much anxiety, it will ruin your trading experience. You could also decide not to trade during this period. After all we cannot pin a specific reason to a specific movement or look for correlation-causation every time.

Make a point to buy at the next dips and then see what happens.

Predicting bitcoin price in short term can be very difficult, even analysts always have conditions for bull or bear market, while what they predict many times can also be wrong. Bitcoin price might retrace or not but people are expecting the price not to increase above $70000 this year, but also I do not expect bitcoin to retrace below $50000. Next year will be another prediction of what could possibly happen, but I am not that bullish in opinion about bitcoin price.

But, how about some investors like microstrategy that do not sell and not selling their bitcoin holding, it is just because they know that no matter the retracement, bitcoin price will increase and reach all-time-high. That is just what is going to happen. That is why many investors are not bothered about the falling price but have more long term foresight which is all-time-high.

These are categories of investors and whales who have seen the long term future of bitcoin that the price will eventually increase greater than present price. The institutional hodlers keep their money in bitcoin believing on it volatility. Halving is coming again and we know it has a strong bull history with bitcoin and the effect on price is felt and changes starts to come after few months. The level of digital growth and platforms including bitcoin to payment structure, there is no way the population of bitcoin user will not keep increasing and demand jumping from what it is and the price growing too.

I think we will see a lower value, and we just need to be patient if we want to get the best entry to generate a better profit. Bitcoin dump as low as $55k in this huge down, but it is slowly recovering now, however, I'm still not convinced that it will fully recover so I will wait until it will dip further to a price of below $50K.

I'd just keep on buying (DCA) to be honest, since it's difficult to know exactly when the market will move. It doesn't really matter since I do believe in the future of BTC, so losing some dollars because a rather poor entry is acceptable if 5 years later I get more than that. I think you should be concerned with bull or bear trap if you're a swing-trader. You can use the rainbow chart if you want to time when to buy perfectly (as long as you can wait and be patient). But keep in mind in the end it's just a theory.

The price recovered a bit already, and the only thing I saw about MtGox is that no timeline  (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cryptocurrency/uncertainty-looms-over-bitcoin-as-mt-gox-prepares-to-eject-one-final-time-7740091.html)of releasing funds was set yet, so while perhaps this last correction can somewhat be attributed to worries over this event, I don't think it's happening today. Moreover, I don't understand why people are worried since from what I read the money will be returned to victims, so it's not like there will be a single point of entry onto the market. Also, there's no reason to believe all these victims will immediately sell their BTC for fiat. So there's nothing to worry about, but 10% price fluctuations are very common for Bitcoin under any circumstances.

I would not call it a bear trap just yet. Its a normal correction. Completely within expected parameters. If we were to experience a sharp, sudden drop then I might start thinking of whether or not to call the situation a bear trap, but then again I would be spending hours with technical chart analysis and combing through news articles about the current macro of the market.

But I still firmly believe that we will reach 100k sometime soon (going by the bitcoin logarithmic chart). If you decide to sell now you might be avoiding a short term drop but you might also miss out on an amazing pump. I would rather hodl.

Long story short: No need to panic. 8)

We have two options at the moment: the price can start going up or the price can still go down without any notice. We can hope that we are ready for anything that can happen to the market. Still, this current situation is a good time to accumulate more bitcoin, especially if we have already prepared more money to buy at any lower price. There is no sign of where bitcoin will move in the next hours or tomorrow, but it seems the price is waiting for something before it breaks out. But hopefully, it can bring a good movement for bitcoin to go up again.

Not a bear trap but the usual bear movement we have always seen since the beginning.

Take it or leave it. If we are talking about BTC better disregard any confusion and have the guts to place a bid on the current price. It happened many times already at least we should know what are the things we need to deploy on the situation.

Good luck to anyone's strategy.

If you ask me I would say whenever the price drop for a few hours or days it's a bear trap and there will be a great chance for the people who can use this chance and buy some more bitcoins, during all these years we saw many situations like one where the price only falls for a few and saves the potential to reach new and higher targets, actually, not just talking about bitcoin but if you ask me about anything I would say it's necessary to have a price correction and then sideways market movements for a few days, all these reactions are normal in the market.

An asset like bitcoins is already super famous. At the end of the day the people would be super careful about what they do with those funds.

Undoubtedly there will be one's who would wanna sell, but as we all know bitcoins can climb much higher therefore I do think of the time being they might wanna hold onto their funds till they are mature enough.

For people who are concerned about the price I do think that they have to generally get the idea that :
"Bitcoins is already surrounded by potential long term investors, they are not going to miss any buying opportunity"

If the price goes down it would recover as well. Therefore calm down and do not sell your coins so soon. It might be more profitable to wait for everything to settle down. Q

It seems like we're still within 15% of the recent high and Bitcoin has been volatile for a long time, so it seems more like a natural fluctuation to me. You're probably right that it will be related to the Mt Gox distribution, because anyone who has been reading the news and picked up on that will probably be concerned that a flood in the market will cause a slight price drop. Whenever the price starts to drop you will always have a certain group of people who were just waiting for any excuse to leave the market and not very committed to their holding, so that group is always ready to sell up at the first sign of trouble. Combine those two elements are it was ripe for a pullback.

It seems MtGox release was good opportunity for everyone? Or atleast the news of it made the market go down the sink. However a real trader and investor would see it as an opportunity because market going down at this level is amazing thing to bag more coins. I mean this was dream of many peeps on the forum itself who wanted the market crash and earn more bitcoin along the way.

So called missing the train guys should be buying it at this point. Many exchangers also started giving “free-trade” for the BTC-FIAT pair to attract more and more clients. Definitely they know it very well that peeps will start buying more and more today.

Don't be afraid, the market will recover and you just need to make sure that every long position taken is at least not 100%. Divide into several parts, is the most effective way. As for seeing the price movement which has decreased quite a few days ago, it is an action that can be called a trap, it can also be called a bonus for us to take. Regarding MtGox, you don't need to take it seriously, because it could be that he has already made a lot of entries at various points. Always think positively that the market is not yet time to fall too deep.

What exactly do you mean by Bear market trap, that investors sold a few of their bitcoins in an effort to get prices lower and then heavily rebuy coins at 55,000 USD. To be honest, I think any price below 60,000 USD is a good price to get more bitcoins. We have traded quite a while above the 60,000 threshold, it's just a matter of time for prices to bounce back. Also we shouldn't forget that holiday season is coming up, I would expect another price increase before Christmas.

I think still too early to say if it is bear trap. Because usually price moving very fast that made a lot of people panic then bounced. For now a lot of people look still calm and see first where bitcoin price will go. Maybe only need a time like end of year for market to get better price and people really shouldn't panic about it.

The problem in general is that we are 18th century soldiers launching cavalry attacks and cannon fire in a market that is supposed to be working to match offer and demand, but in the current context there are three guys out there that have aircraft carriers, cruise missiles and armed spaceships. These actors are the Federal reserve, the European Central bank and, to a point, the central bank of China.

What I mean by this is that prices as of now, since they are measured in fiat, are basically following the monetary policy.

things like this will not be seen if we only look at it at a glance, regardless of the trap or not it seems that a sense of vigilance must have been there and should have been able to make plans when things went wrong.
apart from that, we are now entering the month of December, which is a very vulnerable month if we look at history because this month is identical with a pretty good increase.

This, if a sell-off is about to happen the threat of it is many times worst than the effects of the sell-off itself, this may seem odd but with the threat of many people willing to sell then the market slows down as everyone is trying to figure out what is going to happen and the market does not move up and begins to go down before anything at all has happened, it is better to be done with this quickly so the recovery can begin and the unstoppable march of bitcoin towards 6 figures can continue.

There was a misunderstanding here by me.
It wasn't 35k BTC but they will be giving back around 142k btc + cash + bitcoin cash worth 150k btc in total which is much more shocking because it takes the number to a mindblowing $9 billion at present and they have not yet planned to distribute it till over a month (which is good news actually), but it will be a watchable thing when it happens because if those investors do not want to remain as long term holders and liquidate their btc, then market will not be able to absorb the huge selloff (even if 50% of those btc will be sold).

You can watch full news here (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cryptocurrency/uncertainty-looms-over-bitcoin-as-mt-gox-prepares-to-eject-one-final-time-7740091.html).

When there are people who are always looking for making use of all the dips then definitely we will have bears to be trapped. Because whenever market is recovering after a correction, traders who are all preparing to go shorting rather than making use of dips will face losses for sure. Such people my realize their misunderstand about bitcoin market only later on.

Here we must make use of fundamental analysis of bitcoin. Bitcoin's overall trend is always positive hence happening of bear-trap might be a common one.

Yeah, pretty increase with a quick dump to most since it's also the year of taking profit by any means necessary because it's for the upcoming holiday. So, I think making a quick decision here is also important if we see a quick dump that means this market is totally faking it to look like a bearish market but it's just trying to shake off the weak-hands who can't hodl for a long time and doesn't deserve to take a profit from new ATH if ever Bitcoin break a new ATH within this year if not, then at least next year or so.

It's seems like bear trap.But actually it's not a bear trap. It's near trap with us.Bitcoin gonna a change price of many altcoin. When the dump occur, it should considered to be a good opportunity to gain huge profit from it. Some will keep think and don't buy till the next pump. Once pump was come again, they may think of late investments.If you just hold means, you may get good in profit,.

We must be able to take advantage of things like this if we do not want to be trapped in the market and can be profitable for ourselves.
So, if you look at it now, it's true, as you said, this could be a tactic which at first glance will make it appear as if it is moving to bearish, but it could be that there will be a significant pump after which there will be a dump that is quite draining.
this is how we determine the momentum whether we are going to just relax by keeping the asset silent for the long term or indeed make something profitable action by smartly reading the situation.

I think by now the Mt gox funds have been released according to the @op or they are still in the process, whatever the case may be I don't think it will really have much impact on price than what we have already seen, if you have bought from that dip, you will be in profit already, between you can always split the buy position, 40%, 30%, 30% depending on the market condition, if you don't want to buy all at once.

Yeah, it seemed like mt.gox did not release lots of BTCs or traders who got refund probably did not opt for dumping right away; they might have decided to hold after seeing bitcoin prices roaring compared what they have seen in 2013/2014. Usually in trading terminology, I have seen bull-trap more frequently but I could not recall that I have ever come across the term "bear trap". This is may be due to "recovery" is only frequently happening in BTC market and not common on most other markets.

By considering the way how bitcoin market have recovered from the recent correction, I am also feeling like we may not get back to $55k levels any more. As of now bitcoin market is struggling to break the the resistance around $60k levels which might happen this weekend's last session.

You made nice point because the price of bitcoin has started accelerating, buy all these coins when the price increases will be at disadvantage of the buyer, actual good time to purchase bitcoin or any other coin is when the values decreases, like right now the price is at fifty nine thousand (59k) clamping back to sixty thousand (60k) which is the point it has been fluctuating since two months interval, but it's acknowledgeable to purchase now because definitely it will get to sixty five thousand before December runs out.

One strategy to profit from trading bitcoin is to buy every dip and this has been discussed hundreds of time in many other thread in my opinion. We know that correction is normal for bitcoin so far, but we can maximize the opportunity to buy this only because the price recovery will occur immediately after the correction even if it reaches -20% in 1-2 days.

For now the price recovery after the recent correction has taken place and bitcoin is back to $59K today, and this is the reason why long-term holders never feel scared or panic during a correction. Market behavior teaches us to be able to maximize opportunities, but it is only realized by those who have the courage and capital. It's still very possible to see the price increase reach over $70K by the end of December, this is the last segment that will determine whether $100K become a reality or not.

Really it's time to call bear trap? Bitcoin hasn't dumped suddenly although it was hit $10K below from ATH. Since Bitcoin is much volatile it's a normal behavior in my opinion. If dump something like $10K within a night then we may call it a bear trap. I don't know the exact reason for the current dump but it's an opportunity to accumulate for us who we are risk takers. If it was a bear trap then the price should pump immediately after the dump. But it doesn't happen and BTC seems to be more correction IMO. I might be wrong but I am assuming to accumulate a small around $50K. But I don't agree to call it bear trap anyway. We shouldn't expect to bump the price constantly. Then there would be a fear enter in Bitcoin for beginners.

I have checked few crypto news portal and few other blog of blockchain analysts but none of them reported about the release of funds from mtgox. In social media also no talk about this as some people usually notify about similar pattern based BTC movements or other crypto based movements.

Usually bitcoin traders react to news well in advance which might have happened this time also; like for expectation of upcoming dump from gtmox refund, traders might have booked profits/exited their positions with the plan of buying back to cheaper price levels and made the recent correction.

I remember by the times of 2018/2019, some whales in reference like gtmox trustee, was continuously dumping big amount of bitcoins and made bitcoin prices to get back to below $10k levels even after bitcoin showed recovery up to $14k levels from the bottom of $3k levels.

But, this time I am sure they could not make similar kind of negative impact into bitcoin market by releasing BTCs; the current recovery from the $55k levels must be an enough proof for that.

Not sure if this is a bear trap or not, but I just missed buying at a targeted dip price. We can’t just simply determine if this is a good time to buy or not as the market is really unpredictable and has high volatility. It can go up or down without warning. Managing our risks is what really matters most.

Yeah, they can't simply manipulate the market this time as people had learned and know-how these whales take the market to get some favor. If ever this is a bear trap, then let be coz it is not a problem, I'm not selling yet as I just continue to hold until December.
I don't look back to what happened in those days when gtmox hits the market badly. It was just the past, the market sentiment is different from now and also the minds of the investors that is why I have the confidence that we move farther than thinking about of huge decline.

I don't think this is the best time to talk about bear market cause I would want us all to be positive about Bitcoin. The bear market or trap has not yet come and I don't want people to be pessimistic about the market now because this bad energy can make people to miss out on the bullish trend that is about to shot to the moon. Bear trend might come back later but  not now.

I would assume that MT.GOX deal would have made a lot more news if it was true, I always assumed that it was just gossip and nothing more. I did not see any official statement from the trustee as well (the group that holds most btc that needs to pay the people back) so it wasn't a valid point anyway.

However, the drop was basically a correction, we reached to a level where people could sell and take profit and with them selling it made some liquidity because people with high leverages got liquidated and that turned their btc into USDT to pay, and that resulted with more selling. After that was just panic selling by some people and we stopped. Now we are recovering because all of that is done, now we are getting back on track and we are going to be doing fine for sure. I hope that the price rises through 60k again and this time around I am expecting 70k to come.

Even if we know its a bear trap or bull trap, the point is how do we trade based on this.

The best thing in this market is to long from the support and short from the resistance. In most cases, you will get good returns but few times the trade will be against you if there is break out pattern.

Till now I saw the fear and greed index is showing neutral. That means people's sentiment is not clear so it will be better to wait for some time. It will be better to take an entry in a little bit higher in a bull market than take enter in a bear market. Do not FOMO and act according to market sentiment. The market became more mature and people know how whales manipulate the markets.

So lets put up some links to that.
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

It is true that on yesterday on which people or the market is really on that neutral state but now that we are in on a little bit shake off then it is already now on Fear.

Is this something surprising? No its not because this indicator wont really be that precise but somewhat a useful tool on looking on how the market is moving.

Bear trap or not then you should know on how to handle up yourself on these kind of conditions.

The market remains to be unstable and certainly becomes more unpredictable too as bitcoin is not yet back in its $60k value. But this should not create panic for everyone as this has happened a lot of times and all we can do is to patiently hold all our coins. I can say that we are not yet in a bear trap but if the price of bitcoin will go lower than $50k, maybe the bear season is about to start.

However, this correction phase may be considered a good entry for everyone who wish to buy more cheap coins. Just seize the moment and we will be celebrating again once the market returns to normal and become bullish again.

Yes, I clearly remember as if it were yesterday, however there is an explanation for it, as I understand the market has to fulfill two phases, the Accumulation phase and the Distribution Phase, in 2017-2018 the accumulation phase occurred from the year 2014 to 2017, then the bullish trend emerged, and from there came everything that has to do with the Distribution stage, which is when the whales or the rich decide to start selling, and this is the distribution that consists of the expensive sale of shares or in this case BTC to those who do not know anything about the market, because many bought at $ 20k when they thought it would go up to $ 50k, and this is explained very well by Wyckoff's theory, which was what helped me the most to understand it everything.

So far what has been the actions you have decided to take? The market has still remained at this same level of $54k - $55k and nobody can tell whether it is going to recover or not. We are just a few days to December and the market is not yet bullish. Analysis that I have seen so far are not really helping at all, it shows that no one really knows where we are heading to from here.

The market rose to almost $60k price some days past, and we all thought - that was it, it’s finally going to cross the $60,000 mark again – unfortunately, that never happened, instead it dropped to a lower price. But I am believing somewhere around the end of December, the market will be bullish.

You need to have deeper understanding in order to decide and invest appropriately, it's not just buy the hypes and sell

when downfall takes place, you are wasting not only your money but most of your time. Knowing the grounds is important

inside this industry, bear and bull need to be reviewed very well before concluding or deciding your side.

Assess and observe every information that you gathered. Not everything is for real. Most are just for hypes or to drag down

the market know to balance your decision making.

we all can only predict by approximation, and for the reality then we can only wait. no one knows exactly where the market will go until the end of this year, considering that many believe that a bull market will occur at the end of the year. with the spread of trust like this, hopefully it will lead traders' opinions to buy simultaneously at the end of the year

End of the year usually sees a mix of bear>bull. Holidays are the time people spend for gifts and buy stuff they would need for the winters before the new year sets in.

Current price shows bitcoin at 57k, this shows there is an oscillation between 60k-54k USD happening and therefore the prices lower than 54k should be bought and over-bought at. If you are looking for a quick flip, this is the chance.

What will really happen in the year end, nobody can predict, but with the new cryptocurrency bill coming in India, some hopeful light is showing up regarding regulation - dont fall for the knee-jerk response of bearish which comes after the bill gets introduced, the long term effect will be positive.

The price is still going down if not it's hovering around 57k so we still have the opportunity to buy at this point or we could wait for it to go down further, it seems that the customers of Mt. Gox that have their bitcoins returned never affected the market too much. Hopefully I have a lot of money when the price goes down even further.

Trading wise reversing a breakout and failing to hold that is surely a bearish sign.   Is the market overall in a bear trap is not correct just from that move, all the long term averages are moving upwards with good reason we've spent most of the year accumulating and nothing has mitigated that especially so far in volume terms etc.  Caution while we remain below 50 day average

If bitcoin can sustain the $57k level and even get up to the higher price, we will not see a bear trap instead, we will see the bull trend comes again after waiting for some time. But as we do not know what will happen to bitcoin as we see the price is down for a small price, it can go back to the $56k range in these two days but we have more chances to see the price will increase more in the next months. But we already make a nice profit right now if we bought bitcoin below $56k and hold until now because the price can increase more than $2k, which means we can take profit.

To become successful investors, we must be able to do research and analyze well. That's to predict where the market will move, so we can make
the right decisions. Many investors are panicking to see the decline in crypto prices now, but if we understand how the crypto world works,
the downturn that is happening now is normal and we don't need to panic. Because the crypto market is very volatile, so when the price has gone up
very high, then now is the moment where there is a correction. So we should take steps to buy potential coins now, and don't sell coins when
the market is down like now. Based on the analysis I did and from some of the information I gathered, it is possible that near the end of the year
the market will be bullish again. Even for some coins it is possible to reach new ATH, so be patient holding the coins we have now, if we don't have
money to buy coins again.

The way bitcoin and other altcoins are reducing in the market, it will be better to hold and watch very well not to fall into failure at this season. Any trader who can bear in this season we are, will really enjoy when the price of bitcoin increase to $60k. Now that we are approaching end of the year where many investors are waiting for the market to change for their favour before they can supply to market for profit making.
What happened 2020 where altcoin price continue to reduce till the end of the year before it start increasing for their customers to achieve their goals will not happen this year. Altcoin price will definitely rise for investors to make a good profit before the end of the year 2021.

I believe that with just 1 month left, we may not have something substantial. I am not saying it will go up or down but whatever happens will not be a huge one for sure. If we go up, I do not see bitcoin being 100k, or anything close, maybe 70k at the very best but I even doubt that, somewhere between 65-70k is the best I could see it happening.

I also see that bitcoin could be dropping to a bit under 50k if it goes down like this, but won't be going under 40k neither. So all in all I assume that it will be a mild month ahead now. Sure something unexpected could happen and prices could change like crazy, specially if we get a news about it that pumps it or dumps it, but I won't make investments based on potential news.

There's no better way to deal with the current market condition but to continue hodling our coins as the market will eventually recover once this healthy correction is over. For now, we can take advantage of the crypto coins low prices and buy those potential coins as much as we can because once the market will be bullish again, then we will experience riding with this bullish season and eventually make small profits if we start investing it today. I cannot say that we are in a bear trap, its not yet bearish season, what we have is just a normal correction.

I'm not Thomas but I doubt if BTC will go any down further as it dip back in some days ago as many consider as black Friday. It doesn't worry me any longer when I see bitcoin price going down because it has and always bounce back. It's just the whale doing their thing and taking profit and buy back when they see the opportunity.
I feel sad when I see btc fall in price and don't usually have the money to buy at lower price.

Hold and sell according into your own decisions because we know that this isnt something that can be predicted and this market is always been like this and theres no way

for you to determine whether we are on a bear or bull trap or something like that which what make it more hard to guess and speculate and this is where

own analysis do make the play and each of us does have its own way on playing out these price movements.

this has often happened in the market, when whales sell prices will drop drastically and when whales buy prices will pump up again. not infrequently they also intentionally create FUD so that the price of bitcoin goes down and they can get bitcoin at a low price. Crypto market conditions are indeed very difficult to predict, everything can happen very quickly and we are required to always be vigilant and be able to take advantage of opportunities as well as possible.

Over time, the strategy of the whales did not have a big impact like in 2018, investors are now smarter in responding to the market, it is proven that the price correction that occurs does not cause panic for traders and investors, in fact every decline will be used to buy, until finally we can see some new ATH this year

The uncertainty in the market is something incredible, in fact I have been checking tensorcharts, com what can happen, I have also checked the long and shorts through tradingview, and I have not really been able to conclude any movement to follow, everything points to possibly the market goes down a bit more, but I'm not 100% sure.

With many analysis and prediction tools it is possible to determine what can happen in the market, I do not know if the action of the new strain of vocid-19 that has Canada locked in is influencing the market, since it can be taken as a fundamental.

Per some of my friends that know how to do TA, no not yet. The bearish divergence in the weekly chart is just a correction. But still not worried if we go on a bearish month, it's time to be bag some coins expecially layer 2, metaverses and NFT games that are low mcaps, like chain games, cudos and AnRKey X.

yes that's true, because investing in crypto has a high risk of course it requires courage to take that risk. A bear trap or a bull trap can happen at any time because market conditions cannot be predicted, if you are caught in that trap I think you have to hold on until the price recovers.the point is if we don't dare to take the risk we won't get anything and we can only regret it when the price has recovered.

Well if you can't do anything since you don't have enough capital to trade another round again then your option is to hold if you can't afford to lose, But if you take another risk and take the stop lose then maybe from that you can buy again at the dip then there's a huge possibilities from that you can recover your funds and earn more once the bull hit again. But also before taking risk we better do a research first because having courage to invest without proper planning can cost us a lot of money if we didn't expect the huge drop came.

Every decision has its risks, and the most important thing, I think, is that the decisions taken must be based on our own conscience, so that we will be better prepared to face those risks. maybe if I personally choose to sell some and wait at a lower price to buy again, that way we can reduce the risk

We could be in the trap of bear and bull market both now.  ;D  Because there is an ambiguity in the market now. It is hard to predict where Bitcoin price will go to soon. For now, the only thing we see is a price movement between 55k dollars and 60k. It would be for our benefit to be careful now not to lose much money. I would prefer a bear trap rather than a bull trap though like everyone would like.

I want to make an excuse but it seems that this is true and we can do nothing better than to hold on to the assets we have.
because this will be one of the things that are mandatory for now I think :D
But instead I take advantage of this by increasing the assets I have and this in my opinion is a good opportunity regardless of the bear trap or not I don't want to think about it and things like this are like a blessing and a disaster for me :D

At this day, bitcoin is $56k and there is a prediction that it will reach $100k this month of December. If that so, then it is still good to buy at the current price of bitcoin but everything in crypto has no guaranty that it will really happen because it's just a prediction. Despite of that, it's better to hold and wait if what well gonna happen in the future.

If we learn from experience, this is the best time to buy gradually in small quantities when the decline occurs again because history will repeat itself and the increase will occur at the right time and this is the best moment if we can take advantage of it, good profits will be obtained in the future .
and don't focus too much on the negative news that has happened recently because it will make the positive news forgotten, because you are too worried which will eventually cause panic and this is where the mentality is tested.

This dump is not just bitcoin alone or should I say crypto, it's a general thing across the globe due to Omicron variant type of virus that has been rampant in South Africa and USA.
Corona affect us all and gladly, it was a miracle that changes the live of many who were diamond hands and never sold, if we can sustain that sell pressure and bounce back smoothly, there is no point in been in panick this time around, bitcoin and market will always bounce back.

I would assume that if you are taking that risk, you are also considering the fact that the moment you sell your crypto, it could end up being a lot higher as well. So, you might sell right at the moment it starts to go up. This is not something that people really want or can risk. This is why most people who make a loss end up trying to hold it until they could recover it. I love long term investment because of this, if you are in a loss then in long term you could get out of it, if you are in a profit, with time you could profit even more.

In crypto world if you are not investing into some shitcoin, it is very rare that people would lose money. Almost all the time, anyone who invested into something fundamentally strong, that usually means they will be in profit more and more every year, having money in crypto for over 10 years would mean getting very rich.

True, market is making more sideways moves than up or down. I would expect this ambiguity to reside for a short while till the cryptocurrency bill in India gets launched properly and the panic that is has been inducing dies down a bit.

Price has already gone down to 48k this morning. I think we are seeing a bit sell off due to some reason currently unknown to me. It would be wise to think how we can use this to buy some bitcoins right away and then wait for the next price rise to happen. This happened in the span of a few hours. We can assume this to be some big whale dumping and exiting since the pattern was not laid over a longer period.

Bearish trend it has become, not a bear trap anymore. Lets watch closely and buy at lower levels so we do not regret when the price goes back up again.

Is there any proof to show that Omicron already finds it way into USA? Cos all the news I've been hearing about this virus is in Africa, also I don't think this is why the market is down presently, there will be more crypto bans but best advice is to buy the dips, even el Salvador bought 150 BTC in this dip today

It's true I really agree with what you said because this is a discount and indeed things like this should really be put to good use.
But what happens is just the opposite. Many people feel panicked about this and in fact things like this will actually harm them.

Focusing too much on negative news will only make us feel insecure, in holding coins.

In early hours of today it fell below 51k another good buying opportunity. There is no guarantee for another lower move but if it comes its would be another sweet entry point. At this point one don't have to buy with all available funds getting multiple entry points gives you a good chance to make better profits.  But for the BTCs I bought above $60k I will still hold to get back my profit before waiting for another dip to buy more

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/six-omicron-cases-reported-nebraska-marking-sixth-us-state-with-variant-2021-12-03/

This was literally the first thing that I have seen when I googled "omricon in usa" and nothing more. I am sure you could do a much better research if you want to, but it is clear that omricon is already in USA. We already have it here, and I am sure its spreading every nation in the world eventually.

The problem with finding new variants scary is the fact that we already have covid-19, which means that we already had this trouble before there was a new variant. So, we need to find a solution, a cure that would help us get better. What we can't really comprehend however is the fact that the vaccination does help with these new variants as well, sometimes even better, sometimes worse but still it is better to be vaccinated then not be vaccinated.

With vaccination numbers not growing because of eventually vaccinated all who want to and can't to those who are anti-vaxx, we are reaching to a level where we just need to wait it all get normal and fine, there isn't much we can do anymore.

I'm not sure that the new variant of the -omricon- virus is the cause of the current price drop
because the mutation of the covid-19 case did not only occur at the beginning of last year but did not make the price experience a correction that was too significant as it is now, or because the virus issue has been detected in the US but until now I have not found any news that causes concern that bitcoin will decline due to the spread of the virus omricon

I do think that one factor that must be considered is the time of the season. It is almost Christmas and I have a gut feeling that most people are withdrawing and cashing out their investments given the current circumstances of the world. In addition to the new variant, this also affected the price that led to most people liquidating their cryptocurrencies. I checked the price and almost all cryptos had their price dropped with an all-time low this year.

To be honest, this is a good opportunity for investors to purchase more for long-term HODL. Maximize profits by investing into this price in order to have your investments mature overtime.

I think it's too early to say that the cause of the current price drop is due to the newest variant or type of covid, namely Omricon,
I hope this omricon case can only last for a while so it doesn't affect the market later,
the most important thing is to follow the latest news and of course it must be accurate

We don't see more deeper yet that's why we can't say that its totally confirm. But anyways even though there's little chance for something like bear trap or a total bearish season then maybe its good to be secured since its really good to be secured than sorry once the market collapsed so bad.

Maybe for now lets follow the news since maybe we can get a hint from it.

It seems your predictions didn't follow the market movements, this is why I always make sure that I put not a financial advise at the end of my every statement.
In my opinion, I still think we will go side ways and when whales have enough accumulation, they will punk back the market and leave the bears at trap, this is how bitcoin has been doing lately but this pump will come in January  I think. We may even go brrr when US print another excessive dollars.

Very likely, there are traders and investors who already preparing for the holidays. They are cashing out their funds to use for this upcoming Christmas. Some may already buy gifts and foods for celebration.


Good opportunity for long-term holders. The chance to see more falling value is still there, make sure to have a good mindset before
you invest your money.

Do your DYOR it's very important!

I think it was a bear trap. Several factors speak for this.
First of all, the Fear and Greed Index is slowly rising again. Fear is giving way and greed is slowly coming back. In addition, potential interest rate hikes by the central banks are now priced in, both in the crypto space and in the equity space. Even if many do not want to admit it, but the Bitcoin price or crypto prices also depends very much on the stock market and the policy of central banks.

These happen every year so its not surprising plus there are manipulators use some issues just to create huge fear to the people and we should watch that since their are certain indicators which tells us that its good to buy at certain point that's why we need to watch how the market starting to move after we see this upsetting bear strike showing to us recently. Maybe they would tell about the situation but expect that many will hype since there are few want to recover back or want to earn again.

I don’t really think that this is something that has to do with the new covid19 variant. Easier to say that it can be anything, so does that also mean that the other times that the market has gone down as well around last month, that it was also because of the same thing? Because the new variants of covid19 wasn’t announced this month, it was announced some few months back, and maybe it might have affected the market then, but not now.

I just feel that this is the regular up and down movement or price fluctuation. It’s just with time and the market will gather itself back and go up again. At least we have gotten back to $50,000 now as I write. So, with time it will still increase.

A sell-off has been happening since last week and we are seeing prices below 50k a lot more frequently now. It is not a bear trap but a bearish trend indeed. We did see a long time in the 50-60k USD range and this is the correction that happened after that stagnation. Possible that bulls turned bearish and sold off coins to recover their investment while other bulls are still supporting at 48k USD.

Whatever be the reason, lets not jump into the easy conclusion of a new variant causing changes in prices. World monetary policies and bank policies have an effect and it can be due to certain countries having more stringent stance towards crypto as of now.

Seeing that there is a new variant of covid 19 which now doesn't seem to cause panic like before,
so I don't think it has any impact on current market conditions,
even so we need to analyze it more deeply whether this is just a fluctuation or not

I don't think so, are you new to investing in BTC in the short term and just getting started. if just starting to invest, we can say we are stuck in it, BTC is being corrected. for me this is very reasonable, because it has long been pumped and touched ATH. for investors who have held on to before the BTC pumped up, this is the last remaining opportunity to take profits.

If you look at this latest variant, it has properties that are easy to spread or transmit, but it is not as dangerous as before. I don't think it will affect the cryptocurrency market too much, it's just that the market is bleeding right now and this is triggered by negative news from America, and of course China also does it, especially bitcoin has reached a new ath, of course it needs correction

This will not totally affect the whole crypto market and people are just exaggerated to relate this in the market, also some other manipulator just use this so that they can add up to the crash happening that's why we shouldn't believe always on what we read since we also need to know if there's relation on the events before things to happen.

Very important to balance all this information before you take your side, decisioning your position. Many failed because of following the current trend, unknowingly that there is manipulation behind, assess and observe if the current events are really related and if you think that there're connections, best to have backup plans when doing your next step.

Your action is always important. Do your best before taking your call. ;) 8)

Back up plans is a must and ive been having this kind of behavior when i had started trading because not all the times your initial analysis would really work out which means that you would really be needing to have some other strategies to make out decisions which would
really be putting you on those recovery or able to patch up situations which a thing must have when you do engage with trading.
This isnt something that be simple and of course it would need take lots of experience and considerations.

I mean it's everytime on this month the same exact situation always happen. I'm not surprise when the price is corrected at that point it will pump again later on early 2022 hopefully. Also with stuff such as influencer tweets,  China takes on crypto related stuff makes an impactful move to cryptocurrency in general. It's up to you if you would like to stay or not, It's just a quite normal situation we have experienced especially at the end of the year.

the only thing we can do when we are caught in a bull trap is to hold on because the price of bitcoin will recover and you avoid losses. but what often happens is that when caught in a bull trap many new investors panic and think bitcoin will soon enter a bearish phase, to avoid bigger losses they decide to cut loss.

We always thought that there would be a bear trap and had to be careful with the value of the investment. Before thinking that behind the high price increases there is a whale scenario for high purchasing power by people around the world, we must realize that supply and demand continue to occur. We are actually just taking shortcuts, if we are able to be careful and not emotional in making decisions, it will definitely have a good ending. The purpose of trading is for profit and financial freedom, so focus on that and get rid of negative thoughts.

Focus in attaining knowledge and not just to deal with this business with more on emotions, we should realize that everyone around do have the same intentions, more likely whales are continuing to compensate due to lack of knowledge from newcomer who thinks that trading is just an easy practice to earn money.

Think deeper and make yourself comfortable in each decision making that you will going to take.

Bear and Bull are trends that you need to understand, anticipate correctly means earnings to your investment. ::) 8)

Getting caught might be suitable if we are in a trading path because indeed in trading the cycle is very fast and does not hold for a long time.
but for investors, I don't think it really applies because they do it for the long term, not the short term.
On the other hand, there's really no need to worry about that, we know that in the history of crypto something like this has happened, even worse. So, why worry now

Long term investment is one of the best option for cryptocurrencies especially bitcoin. I may regret not buying earlier, but I can also benefit from my long term investment in bitcoin.

I totally agree about an investor should have good planning for the investment they make in crypto regardless how the market will react to fud or hype because this volatility is always there. So having sufficient knowledge and being aware of the good potential of the asset owned is the best way to generate maximum profits in the future. Involving emotion in this investment is not very good because it will only cause great hesitation to hold on to the asset when price fluctuation occur. So it would be good not to over-monitor price movement all the time.

Yah, Any correction beyond technical resistance is not associated with the risk of omicron variations as everyone would expect, bitcoin has proven since the first covid variant and Delta.  The inconsistent regulatory shift for bitcoin and “risk” leads to a negative market sentiment, which presents an opportunity for bears and so, will bulls await the upcoming Fed meeting  takes place?  The reaction to the larger narrow angle in May at $29k is a lesson, bitcoin will stand up to this sell-off, The drop below expectations indicates stronger selling pressures and I think this is an opportunity  good to buy a few.

it bear trap or we are in bear market?

I don't think the covid pandemic is the reason for bitcoin's decline, but with this pandemic, bitcoin can actually reach a new ath. and every time there is a downturn then bitcoin can bounce back even we see some new ath this year. the formation of a new ath is usually preceded by a price decline, so that's the reason we buy every time there is a correction

To be honest, we've seen many attempts to break the $50,000 barrier and it seems to be very hard to do that as the resistance is very strong.

So it is obvious that if we don't get over again this time, it will be another bear trap.

As for the bear market, really hard to tell, maybe next year we might see a good picture if we are indeed in the bear market, or we can still squeeze a bit in the first quarter and continue and hit what we have been expecting - a 6 digit figure.

Bear trap would be that Dollar is subject to possible losses beyond expected.   To that extent its possible its a trap for anyone negative on various trade inverse to Dollar strength but its a long term question generally and you seem more focused on trading dynamics which is more uncertain and subject to volatility both in BTC and generally.    Dollar should be a counter to volatility but its value overall becomes more unknown every year because the fundamentals and general debt burden are worsening.
Bloomberg, Barclays discussion of Dollar prospects (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r5pc5PkbQo)

It's better to see that it's a trap rather than an actual bear market. We do usually see this whenever we're entering again the consolidation. Just a random thought that everyone has this feeling that there will be a sudden push eventually.
When it's been stagnant for quite a while, there's always this time that it pushes upwards and we're seeing a rapid pump going to its ceiling.

I agree with you, this seems to be one of the typical plays of the great whales, because they are used to doing this type of demovimeinto because most people are affirming that the BTC would reach $ 100k and the whales usually do the opposite, This is to give everyone a surprise, I do not think it is a bearish trap, I do not see it as something normal, but if it is necessary to understand that in any speculative market this type of thing can happen and a setback can turn out to be a healthy and necessary move .

what a real bear market is, I'm still hard to prove that it's true. stuck in a bear market are you so sure of the source you are getting. I just think that it's time for bitcoin to have a correction, once it is pumped there will be investors who will take profits. it is impossible for all of us to benefit, there must be a time when we have to lose and there is a time to make a profit.

Looking at how it goes up and down constantly and there isn't really that much change on whats going on, I would say that it is not really in a bear trap but more like it is just volatile. Bear trap is more like when the price falls to trick people into thinking it will go down, but we are not seeing that, sure it did drop a few times already but it also recovers as well.

Price is going between 45k to 50k and when you consider it as bear trap at drops to 45k, you should think it is bull trap when it goes back to 50k in that case which wouldn't be right. It is simply just a situation where we haven't decided on anything yet and the price shows that people are indecisive about the situation.

IMO, yes we are in the bear trap and also bull trap, between the two. We may consider about so many predictions that December will be the bullish season for Bitcoin and followed by altcoins in early year of January. But in fact, bear trap is coming and still continuing, moreover with some FUD are still around us, the price may be not able to rise up significantly these days.
And the bear trap still makes altcoins moreover top coins to be in the lower rates again and again, without like rising price so far.
But I am actually confused enough what exactly whales want from this kind of market condition, they must need to earn big profits that is why they are playing like this, putting us in the very small difference condition about bear and also bull trap. And this will make many people panic during this bear trap situations.

You know that a lot of people are saying that there is going to be a bull run this December because of what happened before. Most of the time people base their predictions on the past experience that we have had in the market, but a few times we have seen that that wouldn't be the case.

There are times that we have expected events to repeat themselves, but it never happened. Rather what we get to see is a totally different outcome. Just like this last bull run, it was quite different from the one we experienced the last time that we saw a bull run, which was when Bitcoin reached close to $20,000. And this bull run also lasted for a long time, even after it reached an all time high price, it went down and still came back up again to reach another new all time high price.

What happens is that everyone expects BTC to reach $ 100k, and that is something that I do not think will happen, the whales know it and the institutions too, it is very difficult to predict who will be right, you cannot raise the price to $ 100 ko $ 150k if they were repeating it since the first quarter of 2021, what can happen is that the price drops even more so that the whales buy more, of course I can be wrong and suddenly the BTC reaches $ 100k, but for now how you see everything, I doubt it a lot.

Whales and co. are good at playing both bull and bear are still can be influenced by the amount of fund or asset that they will
provide inside the market, while institutional investors are observing and moving aggressively each time downfall takes place, they are just waiting to see if the momentum is already done, then buy it to add to their store asset.

We really can't conclude either way. We can only speculate and wait if we assume it correctly.

What we got right now is the path that we need to assess to make a good success inside this industry.

The market has been crashing for weeks now showing a little signs of recovery.I don't think we are in a bear Market but we may be heading to one anytime soon hoping the market will recover soon and I will make some profits from my investments.

100k will happen, its the opposite as stated there that somehow everyone knows its just a dream.   The reason being continual inflation allows prices to alter upwards even without value increasing, so its actually inevitable that so long as BTC continues in its known path it will reach 100k.  
  After we establish that basic positive bias then its just a case of debating the timeframe of that 100k target, near or far.   It might actually be beyond the next cycle, we tend to go in 4yr boom and lulls to the price.   I dont know we will always cycle in that way but its not too dissimilar to how markets move anyway.   So if we said 2025 or upto 2030 perhaps, its possible 100k can take that long but I do think it occurs on the precondition that BTC itself at least remains as valid and used as it is presently.
  In that very large time scale framing, yes bears will perish if they intend to hibernate from the market that long.

Around the end of the year and start of every year, the market behaves in a typical fashion where it falls a bit or just tops the charts for a few days. Earlier when the market used to crash, the naive trader inside me used to believe that it's happening as people are doing Christmas and New Year shopping and liquidating their Bitcoins but over the span of years I have learned that's not the case and it's just manipulation from large institutes or whales.

Calling it a bull or bear run is not viable unless there is some evidence or reason behind it. When Tesla accepted Bitcoins payments, I agreed we were in a bull run and when they took the move back, we went into a bear run because there was some facts to back up the price rise and fall. Now there's almost no major news so it's pure manipulation of the market by whales. No other way to put it.

Doesn't look like a bear trap to me at the moment, rather a sideways trend. I'm December we had a couple of negative news that prevented a recovery, but it's also not too bad. Now during the holiday season I would expect most traders to lay low, same goes for the first 2 weeks in 2022. Since bitcoins still seem strong around the 50,000 USD barrier I would expect a rise again in spring next year. So waiting now for prices like 35,000 USD doesn't seem realistic. Hoping for the perfect price to buy might end up missing out on the next rally.

Bitcoin is always going to remain valid and used actively although I agree other cryptos are taking a share of the market rapidly. That said, they are all categorized as altcoins while Bitcoin is sort of standalone crypto so it will always remain valid and active.

I am sure $100k will be hit within 2022 itself, we don't have to look at 2025 or 2030 that time around we may be looking at million dollars maybe.

If the market will recover from this whole correction, i think we will end this year close to $60k at least. So its not bad at all to expect $100k by 2022 as we are really heading to its upward trend. If the market will attract positive news consistently, bitcoin price will eventually reach higher than $100k seeing how volatile it is.

However, we should not also close our minds that the bear season will also happen at the first quarter of 2022, but i know after rainy days a rainbow will appear, so its like a bullish season after its bearish trend.

Being optimistic isnt bad but dont anticipate or hope that much that the market or price would really be like that on upcoming years to come or in next years because its never been a guaranteed thing for
these things to happen because market is truly unpredictable no matter what this is why its really hard to make out conclusions basing up on volatility alone on this market
Bear or Bull trap it wouldnt matter because it could really happen in an instant whether there are sentiments around or totally having nothing at all
which it is really hard to make out such move.

We have already touched 60k and even 70k I believe so 100k is not a dream but a very realistic and near-future price, possibly. So, by considering the potential of bitcoin and about on-going adaption rate, I guess we are going to have another strong bull rally which might be taking us into new heights.

Bear trap might be a right term to call the current scenario of bitcoin market as market is able to hold above $47k levels which means we still have stronger supports around $45k to $46k levels hence upside movement would be the next thing we are going to have as of now.

You are right, sometimes it is difficult to understand what things can happen to the whales or what plans the Strongh Hands have, if we consider that their plans is to make BTC go up for the first quarter of 2022 is something that could surprise many , because I have seen on YouTube and many social networks that they are expecting a bearish movement throughout the market, and this can result in many traders waiting for the movement below $ 40k and it is possible that the opposite happens, it always happens that Thus, it is difficult to predict what might happen in the market at these times of uncertainty.

Not yet for $70k but that was too close. $100k is going to happen. Did we even think of $40k and $50k before that it was very possible? I guess not. Everyone that's looking at bitcoin when it's low at $3k and even lower than that never thought that these days will come into reality. That's why if we see some bear traps today, that's essential to happen but it doesn't mean that it will stay there for long. The chance of going $100k is very plausible.

Not a bear trap but the usual bear movement we have always seen since the beginning. Thanks for the post!!

the opportunity to hit $100k is very reasonable but judging by the current market conditions it doesn't look like $100k will be reached anytime soon as the price drop is still continuing and even yesterday the bitcoin price fell quite deep. no one knows how deep the bitcoin price will drop in the current bearish phase, but I hope the bitcoin price won't drop below $40k because if that happens it could trigger panic selling and the price recovery could be hampered.

Maybe the next ATH is $100k, but before that, I think we will still continue to see the bear market as it's necessary to strengthen the market. It's not something new to us as we have experience the bear market before, it wasn't good but if you look at the bright side, it gives us an opportunity to accumulate.

I have to say that whenever bitcoin price drops like this, there are a lot of people who come out as doubters. It is of course easier to say that bitcoin will be doing badly when you see bitcoin doing badly, but it is hard to say it when it is going up. So sometimes when we have a crash like this which is tiny if you look at it, then people who doubt bitcoin will come out and act as if they knew it all along when in fact we are 40k+ and that is a huge number compared to just a year ago.

This is why we should be ignoring those people, look at the long term aspects of bitcoin and be hopeful that we will always have these kinds of "falls". I would love to see it go to 120k and then "fall" to 90k, I am telling you people will talk about how bitcoin is dying and crashing and ending when that happens as well. We are "down" to 43k, that is as good as it gets and yet you can't make some people happy.

Agree. $100k won't be achieved in a short time, especially considering the current market trend. I don't know if $100k is still a realistic target in 2022 or not, some people predicted that this year is the beginning of the bearish season phase. In my personal opinion, if we look at the price chart, it is not impossible to see the BTC price increase again. But I guess the price won't reach $100k this year. Remember that we already experience 1 year after the BTC halving. If the scenario will be the same as the previous bullish, 2022 is no longer a big bullrun time.

What catches my attention is the amount of falls that BTC has had, at Christmas it was found that it did not rise in price, now what I can intuit is that this 2022 will come with everything, maybe for the first quarter of this year we can see finally that new ATH, the bear trap is still latent and every time sounding better, many have been lowering their orders in LONG and are positioning themselves in Short, it will be that the bears are achieving the task? In any bullish trap there are always many aspects to take, of course now they have on their side the fact that we are in the middle of a pandemic and they can take advantage of this to generate panic.

At this point, I wouldn't speak of a bear trap anymore. Bitcoin has lost over 30% from its all-time high. So this is a big correction, however I expect we'll be going into a bull market again soon.

Just have to look at the comments of the last few days. Goldman Sachs yesterday - although Bitcoin has fallen significantly - made the statement that Bitcoin is the new gold. Two years ago, Goldman Sachs would have spoken of such a slump in prices as a scam and that Bitcoin would have no intrinsic value. Today it's the new gold. So the narrative has changed completely.

I have to say that the short positions are either profiting and leaving or they are still growing strongly. Which means that the moment price goes up, there will be a lot of money to be made from those short futures. This is why I believe that rich people are lining up their money right now to both buy a lot all at once AND also open long future positions as well. I am not saying that it will happen right away but it will definitely be easier to do it and there will be huge profits for those people.

Since whales have enough money to change the direction of bitcoin right away, I am guessing that it will definitely make things a lot easier. Considering longs get liquidated and sell their btc to pay USDT debt, short is not like that so there is no double down situation but it is still a lot of money to be made and I believe that it will happen sooner or later.

The thing is, we are not even sure whether what you said is going to be right for 2022. December of 2021, there were so many analysis that we would see further increase in the price of bitcoin reaching $100,000 and a lot of us waited to see that happen, but all the days of December passed and we never saw any increase at all, rather the values continued to decrease. Then there have also been another analysis that 2022 will be the year for altcoins, and not for Bitcoin. So, that’s to show that nobody really knows. Although I feel that we have already seen the bullish trend for Bitcoin take place last year, and I am not really looking forward to another increase this year.

People never really wants to accept the fact that the bull market is over. Every time that there happens to be a correction after a bull run, people always find it difficult to accept that the bull market is over. This is why it is always important to get yourself ready ahead of time, especially at times like this and invest in the market and wait for the bull market, and when that time comes, you should take your profit and not wait for anybody.

There will be another bull run for sure, but I wouldn’t say that it is going to be anytime soon as you have said. It might take time before it happens. This is the same thing that people said after the other bullish trends we experienced. Just fill your bags and then have patience.

Agreed.

Short run, I think that all the technicals are pointing towards a sub-$40k bitcoin right now. So this is resembling more like a bear market rather than a bear trap right now.

But in the long run there is a lot to look forward to, and that includes mass adoption of bitcoin as a viable store of value and medium of exchange.

Last year after bitcoin went ATH, the correction was even bigger and that's below $30k. And after that correction, we saw that it has hit again another ATH which speaks of the same thought that we have.

It will take time, maybe a year from now or two, and so on. The dream of reaching $100k is still there and I'm one of the hopefuls that we're going to see that. But if it won't happen by this year, it's not a matter to me and I can patiently wait until it reaches that target.

These people have influence on the market, they use their statements to coordinate pump and dumps as they wish. Just like another space millionaire said about cryptocurrencies. They do it for their own gains and nothing more and the crypto market being unregulated is a perfect place for that.

Point is that we common investors should identity such statements and move along opposite lines.

Yeah I got buy orders below 40k USD ready to be executed overnight. Hoping they get filled quickly so I can fill my wallets with more BTC. ;D

It should turn the market bullish more than bearish. This month long trend moved from a bear trap to a bear trend and I expect more weak hands ending up selling and therefore more buying opportunities for bitcoin hodlers.

You are right, the truth was that I had put that hope because in March and April 2021 the price improved a lot, they also began to do the analyzes based on PlanB with their S2F model that ensured that that 2021 would go up to at least $ 100k, later the Analysis of Wall Street people assured that the price would reach at least $ 150k, so all those statements many expected the price to be at those levels, but the logic indicated that everything pointed to that path, which was not taken in The point is that whales tend to do the opposite of what the masses think, and that's where everything went down, sometimes it is difficult to determine which is the correct path, a whole Fundamental and Technical Analysis must always be taken into account and when you think about what whales can do according to the current situation, and that is difficult to determine.

yes now we are going into the bear situation cause the BTC market is not good some good news and some bad news trying to make the market crash so I agree with your statement we are in a critical moment and we are waiting for good something.

With such conditions, what is needed is that we must remain calm,
conversely when we panic then it will make the condition worse,
so better be patient and wait for the good news about the market

Even if we are calm but if there are huge number of people getting panic on the situation then we cannot avoid to encounter these scenarios but what good to do there is we need to take action if the worse case scenario came since we know bitcoin will bounce back and we need to buy while everyone is in panic since mostly this is the scenario where the whales start to accumulate and we need to ride with them. Only panic sellers will lose on this market condition and the smart traders will earn huge bounty once bullish condition starting to occur.