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Title: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: JayCoin on December 04, 2011, 10:13:06 PM How would Bitcoin ever fail? There is no logical end of Bitcoin. I think it is here forever as long as there is an internet. I have not found a credible situation other than the end of the world that Bitcoin would ever stop. Bitcoin is an amazing idea that I don't think will ever stop
Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: casascius on December 04, 2011, 10:20:40 PM If something better comes along to solve whatever problems happen to turn up with Bitcoin that we didn't foresee...
for example, if it becomes popular enough to the point it can't sustain transaction volume. sort of like Napster and Gnutella, which required a rethink and the result was BitTorrent. Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: evoorhees on December 04, 2011, 10:37:35 PM A serious bug that was catastrophic, or a massive hacking that destroyed the blockchain or deleted/transferred massive amounts of coins could sufficiently crush the system so that nobody would use it.
Basically a flaw in the protocol could end Bitcoin. Other than a critical flaw, the only possible end would be a better currency coming along and replacing it (but that's a vulnerability of all currencies from fiat paper to gold to bitcoin). Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: JayCoin on December 05, 2011, 01:13:00 AM I don't think a "bug" in the code could ever cause it's failure. Even if something happened, a patch would be made and we could fork around any attack to the block-chain.
For something better to come along and replace Bitcoin is somewhat unlikely also. It appears that Bitcoin could add any features that it could possibly need. The fact that it was first, would give it much more of an advantage of any new decentralized currency. Any new useful features of a competing currency would just be added to Bitcoin making the new currency irrelevant. Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: arfeniel on December 05, 2011, 02:04:17 AM How can it fail? Well, it could go the same road Amiga did. The thing is not dead, they release a version in august 2011 if I'm not mistaking. It's alive... well sort of. Or like Betamax. It was seen as a better technologie (quality) than VHS, but the ease of use of the VHS and it's fast adoption of home user killed the Betamax. Sure, Betamax survived, as Betacam, in the professional and broadcast video industry.
Don't get me wrong, Bitcoin is great. But it need too seduce the home user. For that, you need simplicity. I know I have to keep my bank pin number secret. But I don't need to worry about how I should make my bank account secure with encryption, backup and fire/watter/electromagnetic proof vault. If Bitcoin "fail", it's because it fail at simplicity. Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: cbeast on December 05, 2011, 02:15:26 AM I think a bug in the law of gravity will be found before a bug in Bitcoin.
Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: dark_st3alth on December 05, 2011, 03:07:21 AM There will be a flaw found sometime in the future, it's just natural for that to happen. Would it cause and end? I don't think it will.
As mining becomes to hard, or in how many years (seems to be structured towards 2015 I think) you can't mine anymore, people will move to transaction fees. While this is going on, it's going to get quite popular, so more and more people will use it. Really, it won't have a sudden cliff drop "stop", it may just slowly die out - after all, BitCoins are an experiment. :) Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: paladin_avatar16 on December 05, 2011, 07:09:32 AM There is an easy imaginable scenario for an bitcoin fail:
1. The hash rate drops to a point, where a 51%-attack is possible. This can be due to very low price and/or MtGox going offline (see MtGox-hack events earlier this year). What ever the reason - with a possible 51% attack bitcoin gets a problem ... 2. Businesses that ARE using bitcoins today get cold feet and bailing out - dropping price and hashrate even more. 3. IF an successfully attack takes place, most of the remaining businesses have to bail out -they can't take the risk. This would destroy the demand ... 4. A recovery from this loss of faith (security) would be difficult at best ... If you want a better idea of possible fail scenarios, have a look at the alt-chains. None of them has actually failed - but more than one has been called a "zombie" ... Dont't get me wrong - I like alt-chains (and mine them like hell with the i0coin- and iXcoin-resurrection), but they provide interesting "what-if" scenarios for failing of a chain ... Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: codymanix on December 05, 2011, 03:56:18 PM If the hashrate drops, then the system automatically reduces difficulty which will in turn mining more lucrative. That way, the hashrate will never drop doen to dangerous levels, but instead will regulate itself so that approx. 6 blocks per hour can be processed.
There also will be no transaction traffic problem, because in the future more and more people won't use a full client but instead a thin client which doesn't need the complete transaction history. Title: Re: How could it possibly fail or end? Post by: paladin_avatar16 on December 05, 2011, 04:56:30 PM If the hashrate drops, then the system automatically reduces difficulty which will in turn mining more lucrative. That way, the hashrate will never drop doen to dangerous levels, but instead will regulate itself so that approx. 6 blocks per hour can be processed. I have to diagree. Bitcoin is far from being safe from 51% attacks. It all depends on demand - people willing to pay for bitcoins. If there are "to few" of them, the price will drop (simple market law). Low price means people are leaving mining (and some of them bitcoin) and - yes - difficulty will drop, you will get more bitcoins and your total $ earnings may stay the same ... BUT people leaving the coin means less "players" and therefor less demand (less customers, less shops, less everyone). This CAN become a downward spiral of the price. Don't fool yourself - if you look at the top miners in the pools you will see that, lets say, 100 GHash are already a danger zone for 51%-attacks. Of course bitcoins has 10 times the amount right now - but it had much more at one point. Please remember - this is a WHAT IF, a WHAT COULD HAPPEN scenario. I hope this never to happen - but look at the alt-chains. They are "what if" scenarios becoming reality. |