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Title: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Hydrogen on December 27, 2021, 02:40:32 PM Quote The United States’ population grew by just 0.1 percent in the past year, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding, according to estimates released Tuesday by the Census Bureau — a slowdown in which the coronavirus pandemic had a major role. The country’s population increased by 392,665 in the year ending on July 1, 2021. Some of the reduced rate of growth can be attributed to decreased immigration, reduced fertility and an aging population, trends underway before the pandemic. But the pandemic helped push the rate down to almost flat growth. “We knew it has had a lot of economic impact, a lot of social impact; this shows it has had a big demographic impact that is going to last us for several years,” said William Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution. The 2020 census showed the slowest growth rate for any decade since the United States started taking a census, with the exception of the 1930s during the Great Depression. But the coronavirus has exacerbated the trend. More than 800,000 people have died in the United States since the pandemic began, and mortality has also risen among people who had indirect negative health outcomes as a result of the pandemic. Over three-fifths of the growth this year, or 244,622 people, is estimated to be from net international migration, or the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country. Natural increase, or the number of births minus the number of deaths, was estimated at just 148,043 people, a reduction of 84 percent from two years ago. It is the first year that net international migration has exceeded natural increase, according to the bureau. Kenneth Johnson, a sociology professor and senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy, called the sharp decline in natural increase “stunning” and said the pandemic played a central role. “In addition to 475,000 deaths directly attributable to covid during the period, it also increased mortality by hindering people’s access to treatment for other health conditions, discouraged people from having babies, and reduced immigration,” he wrote in an analysis of Tuesday’s estimates. Seventeen states plus the District of Columbia lost population this year, with the biggest absolute declines in New York, California and Illinois. Those states also saw large numbers of people moving out to other states. Domestic migration tends to exacerbate overall gains and losses, Frey said. The biggest absolute gains were in Texas, Florida and Arizona, states that have seen high levels of in-migration. The population of D.C. dropped by 2.9 percent, a steep decline compared with recent years. The city lost about 23,000 residents through domestic migration, offset by a gain of about 2,100 people from natural increase and about 1,100 from international migration. In 2020, 2019 and 2018, D.C. had lost just 658, 2,417 and 444 people, respectively, through domestic migration; before that the numbers had been positive going back to 2008. “It’s a huge outlier,” Frey said, adding that it is the biggest domestic out-migration the city has seen in a year since at least 1990. The change in administration during a pandemic combined with the large numbers of people working from home probably slowed the in-migration flow that normally would come into the city, he added. The city’s population had risen steeply early in the decade after the Great Recession, contributing to a 14.6 percent increase between the 2010 and the 2020 censuses. But city officials had expected it to be higher, and some have questioned whether the 2020 count missed some residents. The mayor’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the new estimates. Maryland and Virginia were more stable, changing by -0.1 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Twenty-five states registered a natural decrease, compared with just eight last year and four in the three years before that. The natural decrease was highest in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. The nation’s population slowdown could have dire implications for the country if it persists, leading to problems such as too few young people being available to supply the labor force, Frey said. “These are numbers you see in some Eastern European countries. It does make you stand up and take notice. It’s really a benchmark we hope we don’t see too often.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/12/21/census-population-growth-record-low/ .... I would guess similar negative population trends are emerging around the world atm. Over roughly the past 50 years, population sizes have close to doubled in many regions. Mainly due to increases in food production which only became sustainable thanks to the advent of the post petroleum economy. AFAIK development of crude oil based chemistry made it easier and more feasible to mass produce and distribute crop fertilizer, pesticides and herbicides. Fossil fuels also drove the development of farm tractors, combines and mechanized farming, replacing horse or oxen driven plows. Before these modern developments, it was impossible to grow enough food to sustain the high population growth we enjoy today. There is a chance spikes in the price of oil trickle down to the farming industry if indeed crop fertilizer, pesticide and herbicide are still derived as heavily from crude oil as they were in past eras. There may be a few conflicting points recorded in the above text. Anyone who has paid attention throughout this crisis, might notice a few glaring points. At least some of it tracks clean and accurate. I would say all of it could be considered decent grounds for some type of discussion. Politically, nations like japan which exhibited negative population growth have been criticized. With the polar opposite held up as an ideal we should pursue. Politicians of past eras claimed the national deficit would be paid down by population growth and greater numbers of citizens paying tax revenues. Although it is not a point I have seen mentioned in some time. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: fiulpro on December 27, 2021, 03:53:55 PM Honestly I do not understand the reason why Japan have been criticized for their negative population rate. If we do look at the big picture the whole world's population is still increasing therefore that doesn't even make sense, the 0.1% population growth is actually good not just for the environment but also for the world as a whole. Overpopulation is something that needed to be controlled and people are themselves doing that now and that's nothing short of amazing. The population is currently increasing but 1.05% per year and therefore if the developed countries do step forward and improve their quality of life, won't it be better ? Government can also work on making the policies better for the existing people, it's not about the quantity it's about the quality!! I think it's a good thing.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: tyz on December 27, 2021, 04:04:42 PM If I interpret the article correctly, then we are dealing with officially registered citizens. For those, the number has grown by 0.1%. But if you consider that there are millions and millions of illegal immigrants in the USA and that this number has surely risen sharply in the last 1-2 years due to the strict entry conditions, then the actual population growth will be significantly higher.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: odolvlobo on December 27, 2021, 09:31:10 PM If I interpret the article correctly, then we are dealing with officially registered citizens. The U.S. census also includes illegal immigrants. Quote "The nation’s population slowdown could have dire implications for the country if it persists, leading to problems such as too few young people being available to supply the labor force", Frey said. The real problem is that the Social Security ponzi scheme can only be kept afloat by an increasing population (as well as high interest rates and low inflation). Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: hatshepsut93 on December 27, 2021, 11:59:18 PM The real problem is that the Social Security ponzi scheme can only be kept afloat by an increasing population (as well as high interest rates and low inflation). Srsly, the Universe might be infinite, but Earth and its resources isn't, so when will society realize that infinite population growth is not going to work in the long run? And developed countries don't really need these ponzi schemes, it's not like there would be mass starvation without them. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Sithara007 on December 28, 2021, 02:44:42 AM The Biden administration may end up importing more third world migrants from Latin America and Africa, and now they have got the perfect excuse. Excess mortality from COVID has played a major role, and another important factor was played by worsening economy. A lot of families have delayed their plans for child bearing due to difficult economic conditions, and the situation is not going to improve in the next few years. Anyway, the situation in US is far better when being compared to other countries. For example in Russia, the population is sinking by around one million per year.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: jrrsparkles on December 28, 2021, 04:25:20 AM Its good for the economy atleast less people will fave issues, I don't really think that it is happening all around the world so the population is keel rising and exhausting all the resources we had for millions of years in just few centuries, probably in the last two more than ever. Some countries made strict rules even before a couple of years to keep the numbers under control.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Darker45 on December 28, 2021, 04:28:45 AM Honestly I do not understand the reason why Japan have been criticized for their negative population rate. If we do look at the big picture the whole world's population is still increasing therefore that doesn't even make sense, the 0.1% population growth is actually good not just for the environment but also for the world as a whole. Overpopulation is something that needed to be controlled and people are themselves doing that now and that's nothing short of amazing. The population is currently increasing but 1.05% per year and therefore if the developed countries do step forward and improve their quality of life, won't it be better ? Government can also work on making the policies better for the existing people, it's not about the quantity it's about the quality!! I think it's a good thing. I guess it's about productivity and, therefore, about economy and growth and power and so on. Actually, these are not simply criticisms arising from people looking at the situation of Japan from the outside. Japan itself is treating its population situation as a sort of crisis. Not only is the country going through with an aging population, it is also facing a severely low fertility rate. Japan is expected to lose tens of millions of people in the next few decades. And not only that, by that time, a huge portion of the population is expected to be old. The country is making steps to counter this. This is not the only alternative outside overpopulation so it is illogical to raise the overpopulation narrative to make it look like a dwindling population is the best way to go. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: bittraffic on December 28, 2021, 04:47:04 AM The pandemic started in 2020, I'm sure a lot of people don't want to start a family to start in a bad year where there's so much fear even when just going out of the house. We are yet not on the brink of extinction though so it's not going to be a big problem. This is not going to be just the problem of US but all over the world. Population in the next years to come will probably decline too due to this health crisis and we are all aging. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Charles-Tim on December 28, 2021, 06:47:28 AM Over roughly the past 50 years, population sizes have close to doubled in many regions. Mainly due to increases in food production which only became sustainable thanks to the advent of the post petroleum economy. I remembered when I spent a year in the far northern part of my country, in just a state there, so this is likely not to be accurate but the north have similar practices. Could you believe it was weired for me to know that the people there prefer using their cattles and farm implements for farming? But the use of fertilizer will surely help. Even they use the cow as their car home. They were very different from we in the South, even a land is not spared in their GRA, all were used for farming. Politically, nations like japan which exhibited negative population growth have been criticized. Can you read this about my country:Plan now for Nigeria's population explode (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5121680.msg58748000#msg58748000) Yet, the rate of low quality living, unemployment and poverty is increasing in my country. I have been thinking how Japan have managed to maintain their population. Also 2006 data till now, I noticed USA is maintaining over 300 million but less than 400 million population. Also I noticed other developed countries are maintaining fair population, but countries like Nigeria and Ethiopia are increasing like flies. What is most important is quality of standard of living, what many increasing population do not have. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Poker Player on December 28, 2021, 07:23:48 AM Can you read this about my country: Plan now for Nigeria's population explode (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5121680.msg58748000#msg58748000) Yet, the rate of low quality living, unemployment and poverty is increasing in my country. I have been thinking how Japan have managed to maintain their population. Also 2006 data till now, I noticed USA is maintaining over 300 million but less than 400 million population. Also I noticed other developed countries are maintaining fair population, but countries like Nigeria and Ethiopia are increasing like flies. What is most important is quality of standard of living, what many increasing population do not have. In reality, it happens as in nature. A plant that suffers, that notices that it has problems for survival, puts out more seeds to ensure the survival of its genes. Similarly, nations where a high level of welfare has been achieved, tend to have fewer offspring and if the population is maintained or continues to grow it is because of immigration, while in poorer nations people tend to have more offspring. We are not so different from plants in that sense. In reality, as the world continues to develop, the increase in population will slow down and we may even have a reduction in the total world population in the future, which would be good for the planet, because the most anti-ecological thing there is is a world with 7 billion people and growing. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Cnut237 on December 28, 2021, 11:07:46 AM Quote The United States’ population grew by just 0.1 percent in the past year, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding, according to estimates released Tuesday by the Census Bureau — a slowdown in which the coronavirus pandemic had a major role. I would guess similar negative population trends are emerging around the world atm. I'm not sure that Covid has much to do with the longer-term picture. The demographic transition model is widely-accepted and well-understood. Exponential population growth is a temporary phenomenon, due to the nature of modernisation processes, in which the benefits that result in a lower death rate (e.g. health and hygiene improvements, particularly as affects child mortality) almost invariably arrive earlier than the benefits that result in a lower birth rate (access to education, improved economic conditions, contraception, etc). The diagram below gives quite a good explanation (Although Japan should probably be in stage 5, rather than 4). Note that this is a general trend, and won't always be an exact fit to every nation and every circumstance. https://i.imgur.com/zkmxpZV.jpg Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: davis196 on December 28, 2021, 12:27:57 PM The natural demographic growth of the developed countries is becoming negative due to cultural factors,not economic or social factors.Many young girls and women don't want to raise kids.
They want to stay focused on their career and have fun living a promiscuous dating life. The negative demographic growth gets compensated by immigration of people coming from underdeveloped countries into the rich western world. The reduced growth of the population isn't the biggest problem,the biggest problem is the change of the demographic structure of the population-increased number of elderly people and decreased number of youngsters. Having more old people and less young people is a big problem for every country. This means less taxpayers and more people,who will rely on the social security systems,which are funded by the taxpayers. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Cnut237 on December 28, 2021, 12:54:28 PM the biggest problem is the change of the demographic structure of the population-increased number of elderly people and decreased number of youngsters. Having more old people and less young people is a big problem for every country. This means less taxpayers and more people,who will rely on the social security systems,which are funded by the taxpayers. I would argue that this is a temporary problem, caused by the fact that during the development of a modern society, the death rate starts to decline much more quickly than the birth rate... as per the chart above. Example: i) High birth rate and high death rate: 10 people born, of whom 2 survive to old age. ii) High birth rate and low death rate: 10 people born, of whom 9 survive to old age. iii) Low birth rate and low death rate: 2 people born, of whom 1 survives to old age. If development is sufficiently rapid, you have a temporary situation where you are at step iii) and have 2 kids born per year, but the old people now are those who were born at an earlier stage, step ii), so you have 9 old people per 2 young people. This will change after a couple of generations, when both the 'young' and the 'old' people are those born at step iii. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: wxa7115 on December 28, 2021, 05:00:33 PM Honestly I do not understand the reason why Japan have been criticized for their negative population rate. If we do look at the big picture the whole world's population is still increasing therefore that doesn't even make sense, the 0.1% population growth is actually good not just for the environment but also for the world as a whole. Overpopulation is something that needed to be controlled and people are themselves doing that now and that's nothing short of amazing. The population is currently increasing but 1.05% per year and therefore if the developed countries do step forward and improve their quality of life, won't it be better ? Government can also work on making the policies better for the existing people, it's not about the quantity it's about the quality!! I think it's a good thing. While I agree at the same time the current economic paradigm is based on the belief there will always be economic growth and for that you need people that produce and consume what is produced, a reduction of the population will most likely crash the current system.And when we add the debt levels that countries have then this becomes even more insidious, as even if the debt levels remain the same a sharp decrease in the population means that now each person needs to produce more to pay the same amount of debt, this is why countries are so worried about the drop in the birth rates caused by the pandemic. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: paxmao on December 29, 2021, 01:14:34 PM I guess it has not been the best year to produce new humans, yet US is obviously under the same trend as Japan has already been for decades, Europe has been also for a while and all civilised countries sooner or later get to: the growth is limited, there are no significant wars that create threats and opportunities and there are however risks of deflating the massive boostered bubble of the economy working at 110%. You would be crazy to generate a new human willingly under this conditions, it is just not practical.
Yep, population piramids tend to become population rectangles in most developed countries. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: kaya11 on December 29, 2021, 01:29:39 PM I think people are scared there to raise another child due to current condition of the world. A pandemic is still on the run and we might be having another wave, I respect people with plans and it might also help them survive if making another baby will be postponed for another year around.
I don't know what is the situation of the people living in the US and how hard it is to raising a child in there, but here in our place we can have as much as we want, as long as we don't neglect or duties to them so we are far away from planning to be a negative population growth country. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: stompix on December 29, 2021, 01:31:44 PM Can you read this about my country: Plan now for Nigeria's population explode (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5121680.msg58748000#msg58748000) Yet, the rate of low quality living, unemployment and poverty is increasing in my country. I have been thinking how Japan have managed to maintain their population. Also 2006 data till now, I noticed USA is maintaining over 300 million but less than 400 million population. Also I noticed other developed countries are maintaining fair population, but countries like Nigeria and Ethiopia are increasing like flies. What is most important is quality of standard of living, what many increasing population do not have. Wait for another generation, things that have happened in South America and Eastern Asia will happen in Africa also: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?end=2019&locations=IN-VN-TH-US-BR&start=1960&view=chart https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AK53g.png This is the fertility rate (births per woman) and it clearly shows that the trend is going everywhere down to US and European levels, most countries in the world were above 6 half a century ago now most of the world is around 2, those projections about overpopulation will never become true. The natural demographic growth of the developed countries is becoming negative due to cultural factors,not economic or social factors.Many young girls and women don't want to raise kids. They want to stay focused on their career and have fun living a promiscuous dating life. Those are exactly social and economic factors, cultural factors are related to traditional families rules, religion, marriage systems, the trend down in Europe has nothing to do with these, most of those cultural factors are driving the rates up, not down. The best example for this is China where economical factors are driving the birth rates down, the cost of education and raising a kid are prohibitory for most families in choosing to have a second or third child. As you can see, nobody gives a damn about this in Africa. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: ChiBitCTy on December 29, 2021, 02:00:27 PM I have been hearing and reading about the population slowing down in the United States of late and found it a bit hard to believe at first but after a while this to me is nothing but excellent news. The whole world as a whole is overpopulated and we need to do things to curb population, looks like it’s finally doing a little bit of it on its own!
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: pinggoki on December 29, 2021, 02:34:07 PM I have been hearing and reading about the population slowing down in the United States of late and found it a bit hard to believe at first but after a while this to me is nothing but excellent news. The whole world as a whole is overpopulated and we need to do things to curb population, looks like it’s finally doing a little bit of it on its own! Well, either the people are getting smart and they know how to pull out or use a contraceptive or there's been a spike in abortion in the country. Of course besides the pandemic factor, I am sure there's a lot of factors besides that and those that I've mentioned. Another thing that I can think of is that they see how expensive it is to raise a kid in USA so a lot of people are discouraged. This is a concerning thing though as this means that the population will steadily go down overtime if mortality rate is much higher than birthrate.Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: kryptqnick on December 29, 2021, 02:35:09 PM Overall, the world population is still growing, but the growth rate is slowing down. It was around 2% in the 1970s, and is around 1% in 2020. But the situation differs a lot from country to country. It's 0.1% in the US, for instance, 0.2% in France, 0.6% in the UK, but -0.6% in Ukraine. So the dynamics vary all over the world, and I don't think it's a big deal overall, as long as there's a stable economy that can sustain itself. What matters significantly is aging population, of course, because it means a decreasing workforce, but how much this is a problem also depends on the economy.
And since the news about the US attributes the decrease to the pandemic, perhaps this sort of change will correct itself when it's finally over or when people stop dying from it in large numbers every day. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Gyfts on December 29, 2021, 02:37:24 PM I don't really see a problem with this, the world's over populated as is. But developed countries having a high birth rate isn't really an issue, China and India's population growth isn't very sustainable. India in particular is growing too fast for their country to keep up, so the population growth isn't proportional to the country's development.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Coyster on December 29, 2021, 03:00:30 PM I'm not from the U.S., and I can't really gauge how things are over there, thus I'd use my country as a case study, in my country that happens to be a developing country, population growth does not seem to be slowing down that much, over here people are less concerned with things like overpopulation, it's very common to see families who can barely feed comfortably having more than three children, driving the population up. That's not just the problem, the thing is that there is little or not resources to cater for the citizens, yet the burst in population continues, in my opinion, developing countries need a check in their population more than developed countries, I mean, the least thing a country with a struggling economy needs is more citizens to provide jobs for, good healthcare, basic amenities, etc, there really should be more and more sensitization on controlled population in nations that are poor, but sadly, their government rarely cares about that, and is more concerned with embezzlements and making their personal pockets fat.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: timerland on December 29, 2021, 11:40:27 PM Not surprising, given the lack of immigration.
Most Western countries probably experienced something similar, with a lack of immigration and a lowered fertility rate given that people are less likely to have kids when they don't know the hospital situation. Expect a big upsurge in the coming years though. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Sithara007 on December 30, 2021, 02:47:33 AM Not surprising, given the lack of immigration. Most Western countries probably experienced something similar, with a lack of immigration and a lowered fertility rate given that people are less likely to have kids when they don't know the hospital situation. Expect a big upsurge in the coming years though. Hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants and close to a million illegals. This is what the United States took in last year. And you are complaining that the immigration levels are low? Low tax rates are needed to boost the birth rate. The current Democrat logic of replacing the native population with illegals from south of the border is not going to be viable in the long run. Japan is an example of a country which has sustained itself with near zero immigration. Results are there for everyone to see. Low crime rate, surging economy and low taxes. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Cnut237 on December 30, 2021, 08:20:06 AM the population will steadily go down overtime if mortality rate is much higher than birthrate. Variation between death rate and birth rate is what causes changes in population. Variations occur when the country is in the middle of the process of modernisation, as in the chart I shared above (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5378792.msg58840526#msg58840526). Before a country modernises, its birth rate is high to compensate for its high death rate. After a country modernises, the death rate is low (talking particularly about infant mortality), so there is no pressure to have lots of children, so birth rate becomes low, too. It is only when a country is partway through this process, when the birth rate is wildly higher than the death rate, that explosive population growth occurs. What matters significantly is aging population, of course, because it means a decreasing workforce Again though, an aging population is a temporary phenomenon caused by an era of considerably higher births than deaths, and the progression of this cohort through the age bands. This animation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan#/media/File:Japan_population_pyramids_1888-2019.gif) of the situation is Japan is quite interesting. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: wxa7115 on January 03, 2022, 05:02:02 PM Overall, the world population is still growing, but the growth rate is slowing down. It was around 2% in the 1970s, and is around 1% in 2020. But the situation differs a lot from country to country. It's 0.1% in the US, for instance, 0.2% in France, 0.6% in the UK, but -0.6% in Ukraine. So the dynamics vary all over the world, and I don't think it's a big deal overall, as long as there's a stable economy that can sustain itself. What matters significantly is aging population, of course, because it means a decreasing workforce, but how much this is a problem also depends on the economy. And that is precisely the issue, the economy has not been built with the idea that we will have an aging population at some point and with views to preparing for that future.And since the news about the US attributes the decrease to the pandemic, perhaps this sort of change will correct itself when it's finally over or when people stop dying from it in large numbers every day. The economy is built with only one principle in mind and that is to maximize profits on the short term, however this has the problem of creating long term issues that are very difficult to correct, and with an aging and decreasing population then it is to be expected the current system will simply crash as it will be unable to deal with those two variables at the same time. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: romero121 on January 03, 2022, 06:06:25 PM Not surprising, given the lack of immigration. Most Western countries probably experienced something similar, with a lack of immigration and a lowered fertility rate given that people are less likely to have kids when they don't know the hospital situation. Expect a big upsurge in the coming years though. Hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants and close to a million illegals. This is what the United States took in last year. And you are complaining that the immigration levels are low? Low tax rates are needed to boost the birth rate. The current Democrat logic of replacing the native population with illegals from south of the border is not going to be viable in the long run. Japan is an example of a country which has sustained itself with near zero immigration. Results are there for everyone to see. Low crime rate, surging economy and low taxes. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: el kaka22 on January 03, 2022, 09:41:22 PM Maybe the scenario with Japan is different, but without immigrants every form of growth in America will get disturbed/decline. Because, it is quite evident to see most of the immigrant population contribute to a massive economy as well as in the development. The decline in birth in my view is not associated with the hospital availability, but with the cultural change happening all around. There is never an argument to be made against a hardcore republican or democrat in order to save a nation. If you ask a hardcore political fan, they will say it is the other side that does it and it is never the true solution, they never come up with something that will help the nation, all they care about is diminishing what the other side is trying to do. This works for both sides, because in the end both parties suck and it's obvious, the last president who shall not be named was a bad person, was he a good president?I am not smart enough to answer that but it is obvious that he was a bad person, that's why democrats riled up this time around and looked like they were "right" in that sense. But not getting immigrants, or getting millions of illegal immigrants are not the two only possible options. You could literally have a great background check and all ready from Mexico and USA and handle all of this very speedily and either send the bad people back or keep the good ones and just handle this problem easily. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Sithara007 on January 04, 2022, 02:53:30 AM Maybe the scenario with Japan is different, but without immigrants every form of growth in America will get disturbed/decline. Because, it is quite evident to see most of the immigrant population contribute to a massive economy as well as in the development. The decline in birth in my view is not associated with the hospital availability, but with the cultural change happening all around. I agree in legal immigrants. The US has benefitted massively from skilled legal immigrants from all over the world. Because of the higher salaries, a lot of qualified professionals (IT, medicine, finance.etc) move to that country every year. But the same can't be said about the illegals, who arrive by the millions in migrant caravans. Whatever benefits they bring in the form of cheap labor are overshadowed by the increase in crime rate, high cost of welfare payments and the cost for educating their anchor babies. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: adaseb on January 04, 2022, 04:18:16 AM I think the statistic from Canada was also similar. And I am not surprised. Times have changed from last generation and there are more women who are working now. The more women that work the less kids they are willing too have because they want a career.
Also that’s not the only factor. Raising a kid is crazy expensive now. Day care costs are very high. And if you have a couple of kids you need a big place to live. Can’t live in a small apartment with 2-3 kids. You need a house and housing is crazy expensive most people can’t afford one. So they either don’t have kids or have less kids. All of this leads to this population decline and it’s not surprising. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: el kaka22 on January 04, 2022, 04:09:38 PM I think the statistic from Canada was also similar. And I am not surprised. Times have changed from last generation and there are more women who are working now. The more women that work the less kids they are willing too have because they want a career. I would say that having a kid is not really related to wanting or career type of deal, men worked for centuries, and so did many women in some cultures, it was never "men go to work, women stay at home taking care of kids" around where I live for example, but yes there are more women working that’s for sure. Yet men worked for centuries and they had children, and I have been working and seeing colleagues getting pregnant and then coming back to work anyway, in our nation we have a law that says you can resign after you are pregnant and you still get your severance like you were fired, which means they can work until they are 6 months pregnant, then take a 6 month break and instead of coming to work they can resign and find another job.Also that’s not the only factor. Raising a kid is crazy expensive now. Day care costs are very high. And if you have a couple of kids you need a big place to live. Can’t live in a small apartment with 2-3 kids. You need a house and housing is crazy expensive most people can’t afford one. So they either don’t have kids or have less kids. All of this leads to this population decline and it’s not surprising. So, it is not really that hard to have a career AND a child. I believe it is mainly about the expense, I can't imagine how hard it must to raise children right now, I barely pay for myself let alone someone else. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: Wayan_Pedjeng on January 04, 2022, 05:22:14 PM Why their population need to grow at a faster rate? A majority of the world nations are edging towards replacement fertility and near-zero population growth. The planet is already home to 8 billion human beings and we can't afford to increase that number by much. For economic growth, why there is a requirement of constant population growth? Why can't it be achieved with a stable population? Countries such as Germany and Japan are having stable populations, and still their economy is doing good.
Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: dothebeats on January 04, 2022, 11:32:47 PM If I were to be asked, I don't consider negative population rate as something detrimental. In fact, it even helps us recover somewhat from the pressures of overpopulation that has been straining our planet for too long. It might have also been fueled by a lot of the younger generation deciding not to have kids, as they believe that having kids on this day and age isn't really ideal, for there are a lot of problems at hand that can't easily be solved even if we try to focus all our attention on said problems.
With the technological advancement Man has achieved in 2 centuries since the founding of the United States, IMO, we can safely say that declining population trends won't really be a problem in stimulating economic growth. They are now replacing lots of jobs with autonomous machines capable of doing the same work Man can do in an even efficient manner. In a supply chain and mass production POV, machines are infinitely better than their human counterparts, so less humans existing won't substantially have an effect on our future economically speaking. Then again, the trend has to be reversed somewhat, to ensure that we as a species survive, but that's another topic to be discussed. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: stompix on January 05, 2022, 01:18:41 AM The planet is already home to 8 billion human beings and we can't afford to increase that number by much. Malthusianism is a dead theory, the world was supposed to be overpopulated at 1 billion, 2 billion, 5 billion, and look how we're still growing and there is no such thing as overpopulation, there are few countries with problems when it comes to food supplies but that's not because of the planet, it's because their own choices from the uncontrolled birth rate when they don't have enough food even for themselves to the total idiocracy of their governments. But excluding those poor regions of Africa there is no sign of overpopulation anywhere, maybe just some extreme cases when we're talking about islands like Singapore For economic growth, why there is a requirement of constant population growth? Why can't it be achieved with a stable population? Countries such as Germany and Japan are having stable populations, and still their economy is doing good. Because you simply can't. For economic growth with the same population, the one replacing the poeple in retirement would have to both produce more and consume more, as those products or services need clients too. So at one point, you will hit a wall, it's pretty simple, just think of how much could you consume and buy. Let's assume you don't have problems with money, you buy 100 cars, but can you drive 10 of them at the same time ? You can afford the best hotels in the world but will you book 700 nights in 10 hotels in one year? Can you drink 100 beers each day? Or go to a concert, cinema, aquarium, gliding, skiing all on the same day? There is a limit to how much a human being can consume even if it throws away stuff, when this limit is reached and there is no increasing demand from population growth then you hit a wall, as extra products or services aren't needed, so goodbye growth. Of course, for a period you can still achieve growth even with a stagnating population till to manage to cover all the needs of everyone,but sooner or later it will come to a stop. And there is a second problem, with a declining population and a smaller workforce but a higher percentage of retired poeple you have a smaller taxable population with an increased burden on social welfare costs, and this is the main problem for Japan for example. With nearly one-third of the population being older than 65, 15% unemployable because of their young age, and this getting worse and worse how will you get the money to run a country and from whom? Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: odolvlobo on January 05, 2022, 09:37:09 AM The planet is already home to 8 billion human beings and we can't afford to increase that number by much. Malthusianism is a dead theory, the world was supposed to be overpopulated at 1 billion ... The reason that we haven't reached the malthusian equilibrium is that food production has grown faster than the population -- something that Malthus did not expect. Actually, that isn't hard if each person can grow more food than they need to eat and there is no limit to the amount of available land. But, once the land is limited then it is up to increasing productivity to feed more people. For economic growth, why there is a requirement of constant population growth? Why can't it be achieved with a stable population? Countries such as Germany and Japan are having stable populations, and still their economy is doing good. Because you simply can't. ... There is a limit to how much a human being can consume even if it throws away stuff, when this limit is reached and there is no increasing demand from population growth then you hit a wall, as extra products or services aren't needed, so goodbye growth. Increasing economic growth is possible with a stable population when productivity increases. There is no limit to demand. If people don't want more of something, they will want it to be higher quality. And there is a second problem, with a declining population and a smaller workforce but a higher percentage of retired poeple you have a smaller taxable population with an increased burden on social welfare costs, and this is the main problem for Japan for example. With nearly one-third of the population being older than 65, 15% unemployable because of their young age, and this getting worse and worse how will you get the money to run a country and from whom? I have been thinking about this issue, but I don't think that an increased burden of social welfare costs for the elderly is necessarily the problem. There is a problem when there are a lot of retired people and not enough working people to supply their needs, regardless of how wealthy they are. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: stompix on January 05, 2022, 11:10:02 AM The reason that we haven't reached the malthusian equilibrium is that food production has grown faster than the population -- something that Malthus did not expect. As I always say when it comes to Malthus, the biggest problem with his theory is that he elaborated it before tractors were invented, that curb in productivity can't be matched for a while unless we double the fertility rate for the entire world, that ain't going to happen. Increasing economic growth is possible with a stable population when productivity increases. There is no limit to demand. If people don't want more of something, they will want it to be higher quality. There is always a limit in demand, just think of the oil prices in the shale boom and the pre covid situation where they needed to cut production to keep prices up. And with higher quality there is the same limit, of course, poeple will want a 300sqm house rather than a one-bed dungeon but after that what's the next step? 1km2? Do you think poeple will use 30 ultra mega luxury gold plated condoms a night just because they afford them? ;D ;D Also, productivity increase means fewer poeple needed to produce something, you need to redirect those to produce something else, the cycle will repeat till you produce for 1 billion with one worker, what are the 1 billion going to do? Turn them into complete consumers? As I said, for a while it will still be possible as people upgrade their lifestyle but that will hit a wall, of course, everyone wants a new car but not that many want to change their car every month. I have been thinking about this issue, but I don't think that an increased burden of social welfare costs for the elderly is necessarily the problem. There is a problem when there are a lot of retired people and not enough working people to supply their needs, regardless of how wealthy they are. Unlike the US, Japan and most of the EU have a national pension fund which basically runs on current contributions rather than past ones, and there is no way you can tax poeple enough to pay pensions if the numbers are 1:1. In most of the EU, the average wage is double the retirement, if the number of workers goes on parity from 2:1 you would need to tax workers an extra 25% just to pay those. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: TheGreatPython on January 05, 2022, 07:00:24 PM Unlike the US, Japan and most of the EU have a national pension fund which basically runs on current contributions rather than past ones, and there is no way you can tax poeple enough to pay pensions if the numbers are 1:1. In most of the EU, the average wage is double the retirement, if the number of workers goes on parity from 2:1 you would need to tax workers an extra 25% just to pay those. I would guess that old people are not really getting those pensions for free, they have paid for it and they have earned that right. If you as the younger person working feel disturbed for paying that, then you should realize that when you are older, you will have to keep working otherwise they will not pay you and you will be left to die. I would not want that when I am older, I want to live a better life, and if I am paying for it, then who to care?It is like saying I am investing right now, and in the future I will eat the benefits of my investment, it is totally normal and instead of investing into gold or stocks or bitcoin, they invest into their pensions. Nations will pay it with their tax income, because they took it, if you took it with a promise then you need to pay it back in the future as well. That's as expected as it gets and not a "burden" considering everyone gets a turn. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: odolvlobo on January 05, 2022, 09:11:07 PM I would guess that old people are not really getting those pensions for free, they have paid for it and they have earned that right. ... It is like saying I am investing right now, and in the future I will eat the benefits of my investment, it is totally normal and instead of investing into gold or stocks or bitcoin, they invest into their pensions. Nations will pay it with their tax income, because they took it, if you took it with a promise then you need to pay it back in the future as well. That's as expected as it gets and not a "burden" considering everyone gets a turn. Your thinking is why Social Security and other pension plans are considered by some to be Ponzi schemes. People may believe that they are investing in their future retirement benefits by paying SS taxes, but that is false. The truth is that the taxes are not invested. They are used to pay current benefits. Despite what you want to believe, there is no guarantee that you will receive benefits when you retire. The government could simply announce one day that they are unable to continue paying benefits and the program is cancelled. Currently in the U.S., the SS tax rate is 12.5%. In order for a smaller worker population to pay benefits to a much bigger retired population, those taxes are going to have to go up. My guess is that they will rise to at least 20% or more, and future benefits will have to be cut, or eliminated completely. As for not being a burden, I think that I could do much better if I invested my 12.5%. The return on investment for SS is crap. Title: Re: U.S. population grew only 0.1% in 2021 lowest rate since nation's founding Post by: stompix on January 05, 2022, 11:25:49 PM I would guess that old people are not really getting those pensions for free, they have paid for it and they have earned that right. If you as the younger person working feel disturbed for paying that, then you should realize that when you are older, you will have to keep working otherwise they will not pay you and you will be left to die. I would not want that when I am older, I want to live a better life, and if I am paying for it, then who to care? From where the hell did you get the idea that I'm disturbed I have to pay for the retirement fund? Before engaging on a useless quest on lecturing me on some things I've never said pay more attention to what I've posted. It is like saying I am investing right now, and in the future I will eat the benefits of my investment, it is totally normal and instead of investing into gold or stocks or bitcoin, they invest into their pensions. Nations will pay it with their tax income, because they took it, if you took it with a promise then you need to pay it back in the future as well. That's as expected as it gets and not a "burden" considering everyone gets a turn. You have zero idea how the pension fund works now. The money you're contributing doesn't stay in a vault waiting for you to retire, that money goes to pay the poeple already in retirement just as the money they've contributed 50 years ago is gone! Got it? By the time you retire all the money you've contributed will be long gone, your pension is going to have to come from the taxes of the poeple working, and if the ratio will be lower than 1:1.5 you're not going to see more than a few pennies. |
