Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin is very weak in the higher time frames ( daily & weekly). Slowly and steadily, bitcoin may break the 40k important level. Also on minor bitcoin dump, we see massive dump in the altcoins.

I wonder if we are about to move in the bear market ? What is the hope of bull market in the current circumstances ?

Bitcoin doesn't look weak to me. Transactions are processed, mining works, all looks good.
Or you mean that the volumes at exchanges aren't that great? Well.. we can't have everything.


This is the altcoins' problem/weakness. It has always been.


I don't know. But any answer you'd get would be a speculation, hence it may be better if you move this into Speculation subforum. (see bottom-left of this page).
As speculation.. some fear for the worse, some tell that a pump is near. I don't know...

Don't panic, patience and persistence are normal fluctuations for bitcoin. Many are waiting for the pump, according to forecasts by the end of this year, otherwise everything seems to be regular

Bitcoin fell many times in price, but after a while it invariably rose even higher. I think it will be the same this time. So far, there have been no objective reasons for the fall in prices, which means that the market, most likely, is a game of whales. They always knock weak hands out of the market before a significant price increase. This brings them a good profit. Bitcoin just needs some time to gather its strength. I do not think that the current state of price decline will last long.

The hope is there if it's about the bull run.

But, we cannot assure that it will be going continuously as much as we like it. The best thing you have to do is to think of the worst that's yet to come.

This is crypto and as usual, it's volatile as it is and we're going to see the worst that it can show us but at the same time, patterns could easily be broken by it and the best can be the ones that it can show.

This is the million dollar question. We have seen it asked quite a bit lately on the forum and, no one has a certain answer, otherwise if you could predict it you would become a millionaire.

As we are in uncharted territory we will have to see how the first few months of the year go at least to see. I believe we can beat the 2021 ATH this year, but some people think that was the top of the cycle. Others think we are in a somewhat delayed cycle, and that the best is yet to come.

I really don't think so, as in your thoughts about Bitcoin being weak in the higher time frames, that is what should happen I believe if it is close to the bottom of a correction.

First correction came down -50%
https://i.imgur.com/gipZ8Aj.jpg

And this time, around -42%
https://i.imgur.com/gXumdXj.jpg

I still believe we are coming to the bottom of the second correction because BTC has not broken the blue upward trendline downward and I also think the $41k yellow line will also act as another strong support but if BTC happens to break these two downward, that might call for concern to me but for now, not. Even the weekly candle is still above both lines.

Its what we like to call a correction. Everything that goes up, must come down. This is just a natural law and goes for bitcoin as well. A bear market would be many downs and only a few ups. We would have to wait a few months before we see anything we can call a true bear market. Remember 2017 to 2019? Thats a bear market. This, is a cub market, at best. With little teddy cubs with cute paws.

Try not to panic sell.

The price is relatively stable and there is not much volatility so should that be a sign of weakness? You read too much anti-Bitcoin propaganda that could hardly wait to start stories like this, because when the price doesn't rise, various journalists and so-called experts start digging a new grave for Bitcoin, but the outcome is always the same, they fall into that hole themselves.

$40k is no important level, not even $30k, the bottom is lower than that, confirmed several times over the past year. Those who want to accumulate even more at a lower price would certainly not mind $ 2X,000 at least for a while.


This is quite normal, all these so-called alternatives just stick to Bitcoin on which they depend. People who believe that crypto winter is coming know that altcoins will be hit the hardest, some will disappear completely, others will become worthless - garbage should be disposed of as soon as possible. I guess something has been learned from the 2018 example.

That's quite possible especially when GBTC is trading 25% below the spot prce of BTC. GBTC price suggests that the investors are leaving the arena. We don't know the reason though. They could be realizing their profits or maybe they are expecting a huge interest rate hike from the FED. Either way, it doesn't look good for crypto nowadays. This year will be bearish probably.

It seems to me that Bitcoin is holding the $40k barrier very strongly. There are fluctuations because people keep buying and selling, but I don't see a negative trend happening. It goes up and down in cycles that often take months, and overall I think we won't see the price well below $40k, unless something significant happens very soon (something like a big company pulling hundreds of millions of dollars out of Bitcoin or more, triggering a panic selling wave). Also, I don't think the current price is bad by any means. Just a few years ago, $20k seemed unreachable, and now people aren't happy with twice as much.

Positive and negative news about bitcoin is still the dominant factor of bitcoin price movements every day and there are many factors that must be taken into account to predict bitcoin price which in my opinion bitcoin price is not easy to predict in any way accurately.
and at times like this our patience is tested with the direction of bitcoin which is not known direction, even though what is happening now is that bitcoin price movements are normal and what has happened will happen again and so on which will experience the same incident with a different story.

I do not think bitcoin is very weak, not because bitcoin still has the power to lift the price soon. If you see the price is down, you can consider that it is just a correction that always happens to bitcoin and we already see that happens many times.

You must be patient at this moment to see your chance to buy more bitcoin because that moment can happen in the short term. But if you do not want to buy more bitcoin, you can hold it and still be patient to wait for the price increase again.

I think this is honestly a lot of conjecture here. Bitcoin is first of all already over 40,000 so I’m not sure what you mean about the $40,000 thing. I also don’t think it’s weak right now. It sure seems like it’s been holding strong at the 40k mark.  I think bigger chunks of alt coins may be selling off having nothing to do with bitcoin and everything to do with the fact that they are garbage.

It doesn't feel like we are moving into a bear market. We are already in a small bear market but will be close to the next recovery. Falling prices always seem a bit like it can only keep falling until we hit the floor. But who knows what the floor price actually is? Expecting to see price of 30,000 USD or 25k is not realistic in my opinion. A lot of investors didn't sell their bitcoins at 50, or 45,000 USD, so why should they be selling now below 40? Also the lower the price is the more it seems attractive to buy new bitcoins. Like last year when the market rallied again after going below 40,000.

i never use silly charts about market price 'trending' of things like MA30

instead i use the mining cost of cheapest to highest costs to get a view of the window of value that the price sits within.
Eg no one on the planet can mine cheaper then the bottom. so no one wants to sell cheaper then the bottom
Eg everyone on the planet can mine cheaper then the top. so no one wants to mine, when they can just buy for less https://i.imgur.com/OcGBwVN.png

as you can see. mining costs are in a bull. upward trajectory(right half of imagine in blue and purple). as of the start of july last year (steady bull)

and although the price in orange is in a small bear as of november. its (january2022) bear is near the bottom of the value window,

2 events can happen
1. users realise that unless they have the cheapest electric on the planet they cant mine this price. and see good value in buying, meaning the price in orange goes to bull..
2. miners give up. causing the mining value in blue and purple to go down, wwhich can then allow the price to go down within a new lower value window

point (2) is less likely to happen because those at the cheapest price. mine no matter what.
their costs can come down. not by switching off. but by the more expensive miners switching off meaning the ones at the bottom get more coin share per block. thus cost per coin then benefits them.
which is the small occassions when the mining costs go bear

You think bitcoin is in bearish mode ? I mean are you serious. No market can move in upward direction only, market correction is inevitable after a massive bull run. If you analyse price of Bitcoin then it has strong resistance on 42k that's clear indication that momentum is building for upword run. It's better to accumulate bitcoin at this point rather concluding that bitcoin is weak.

We'll just be getting in red again...
I'm not supposed to think about the bear market but something we can't stop, that gonna be coming again. If the situation will never change, we expect a price to continue to dump. I can't make a final say but I was thinking now that this year 2022 is not a good year for crypto. We possibly making another round for bearish season just like the old days. I hope this will never take so long like it happens last 2018-2020.

Larger time frame shows picture of where  Bitcoin intends moving to in a long period of time and it's typically meant for holders or position traders and it's more profitable to those with larger capital to fit into the waves of the market because no trend lasts for ever and in as much as technical analysis moves the market 70% of the time fundamental analysis can always cause a major correction. For now I advice trading shorter time frame and take advantage of the volatility then because a correction can occur anytime because price has gone down and it's risky selling at this point

I wouldn't say that the market is very weak at this time. It's just a price decline - correction on the price. It's just how the market works and looking back 40k isn't a really weak price on a decline, it was lower in recent history. I wouldn't really panic, I think the price will either stabilize around the current one or pump after the correction. Holding on to your Bitcoins would be the best course of action, this is nothing to be really scared of.

bull and bear markets are more of the 1+ year stuff
so all these more temporary volatile movements.. call them calve and cubs

If we do move to a bear market, people can still benefit from saving up their coins and at the same time encashing them later in the future and not right away. 40k mark is defiantly important but what's more important is how well bitcoins holds onto themselves at the end of the day during the falling economy. Plus the market is not going down, it's up and down for sure but the minor downtrend is nothing to worry about. I do think that we can always expect the bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies to have such effect every once in a while since the economic situation is easily impacting their price, just hold onto your coins, you never loose until you don't encash.

Currently bitcoin is near the bottom and I think it might pump in the next few months if everything goes right.
I think if bitcoin maintains this price range for a few weeks and doesn't fall any further then it will be a good support.
Bitcoin might pump in the next few months but if it falls further then going back to the ATH may take another year.
It's all just a speculation.

And once bitcoin's price is going up, for sure, a lot of people will regret that they haven't bought in this period. As no one can tell what will happen next, it is your own prerogative how you will react on this market. The adoption is quite different today when compare in previous years, so it is up to you how you will gauge the market. Do you think we are heading in the positive direction or not? Because if you have hesitations, pause for a while and assess your financial capabilities.

We do have to do our own research and analysis, then decide for ourselves what we should do. We cannot make decisions based on other people's
opinions, because it is not necessarily what other people say is the best for us. Because based on the research and analysis I did, I don't see
the current market conditions as something we need to worry about. Indeed the price of Bitcoin has not recovered, but the price of Bitcoin is
still above the $40k price, this is already a high price compared to the previous decline which was much lower. So I think Bitcoin still has a strong
support price and there is a possibility in the near future Bitcoin price will recover. So I still hold the Bitcoin that I have and if I have extra money
I will use it to accumulate more Bitcoins.

Bitcoin is now showing some strength and it is at the 55 EMA in the weekly chart. If this week closes above 55 EMA , then for sure we are heading towards all time high. Good that bitcoin did not break the 30-31K and also it means that the bull market is not yet over.
We have some exciting times ahead of us as we will soon be celebrating new all time highs again.  :)

https://i.imgur.com/tsc5frB.png

With the breakout on above of $40,000 this month, I became bullish for midterm on Bitcoin. Look how Bitcoin broke the trendline on a monthly timeframe.
And what I noticed also is *not so perfect support when Bitcoin dumped around $31, xxx - $32, xxx last month, and the $30,000 seems to become strong horizontal support here since last year.

Just a normal price retraction from my experience its not anything out of the ordinary especially.  Yes BTC is volatile and this is possible, to say this much while the 200 day average is still rising is a bit over reactive.   Price action remains bullish longer term, massive clue is we are greatly higher then pricing just 18 months ago and to stay this high for so long with higher volume is helping to confirm this range.

Yes, that's a clean breakout but the most important thing is how we will close this month of February. There are still 18 days left in this month and bitcoin can again come down and close the month below this trendline. If this happens it will be a false breakage but the chances for this is very slim. Being a trader, we should keep an eye on all the possibilities.

I think it's always good to wait for more confirmation mate when it comes analysing the graph because there's always a false signal for your information and the candles suddenly change direction without knowing. Infact as of now bitcoin respected the demand zone in the higher time frame which means there's a possibility in the future it will make another higher highs again. And for me it's a confirmation wherein after respecting the current support level and now its respecting the demand zone as well so i'm very positive that there will be another higher highs in the near future.

This is what I'm looking right now. After the strong bounce on 30K, We are now finally double bottom in weekly  time frame  which means a super bullish in long term. I'm not looking anymore on short time frame because I'm not doing swing trade on this current price. This might be the last time to see the price on this low level because uptrend is slow building up on long time frame chart. I hope we can break all the resistance along the way to new all time high to sustain this slow pace bullish movement.

What confirmations are we waiting. Did not they already confirmed before that the btc reached its bottom and is now ready to bounce back? And that looks legit because right now btc is moving forward. It is now finally above 40k.

Unexpected movements are always there no matter if how good you are at your analysis and its better if the final decision could come in you than the others because in the end that was still your money. Not sure if what the op means by higher time frames because he also mentioned daily and weekly but others said that the market is weaker during the weekends yet there are times too that btc is weaker on regular days and higher on weekends.

Considering how bitcoin price usually just goes up a lot and doesn't go down as much, we are basically living that right now. For the newbies who do not know, we had 1.4k ATH and then we never went below the previous one, then we broke that and had 20k ATH and never broke under 1.4k, and we had 70k now and never went under 20k. Whenever we even got close, it usually turned around and did another ATH instead.

This is why I believe that long term is looking great, we are in a situation where we are going to end up making a good profit and that is why I believe that we should be simply focusing on the long term big profit that is coming our way soon. It could be in a year, it could be less or more but it is coming.

That is what we have to believe with the passage of time and with the coming of more users the price tends to increase and at some stage stay there with which we get a support point and remain in profit. Now when the price increase a little and come near to its previous position then we cannot say that we are weak or we are in loss but we are already in profit with our previous ATH.
Those who enter new and the price come back from the point of their entrance then they have to read the previous trading history of bitcoin they will be satisfied to hold for long.

Always wait for this confirmation since our analysis can be wrong sometimes, just like in the past days where we able to rise and go hit the resistance. Now I see Bitcoin down maybe because filling up the gap but after this correction, the price will recover again and this can be a good start for Bitcoin. Buy now before the price rise again, this is probably going to happen.

From my own understanding of market rotation this time, i can portray that bitcoin is pushing into bullish side gradually because their is change in market price, and i think that it's investors that entered the market with reasonable amount of fund's or capital to correct the market small in order of others to join to push the price to be higher.

so i don't really know if it will traceback to the initial decrement point, because the bond of it to Stick on current price is not strong enough to come in conclusion that we are into bullish season or we are still in bearish, i think the line is still in statistics equilibrium.

The challenges are still the fear gripping the market yet. The recovery has to be slow because investors not jumping in yet and few we are buying still dumping this is why the rate of volatility is yet slow. Last week was waking up for recovery but dropped a little during the end of the week. Higher time or the way low time operate is depending on sentiment.

This is the thing that people are missing most of the time. There is a big amount of funds involved in the crypto world and even if you see sudden volatile movements there is always a reasonable pattern and reaction involved in it as well. It  means that if you are doing something that is mainly profit based and you are after making a profit only to not care about anything in the crypto world, then you are going to end up with not making a good return at all.

So, there is nothing that could be said about the current market that looks to be downer, it will probably go up because there is no pattern or good reason for it to go down anyway, so why would it go down at right now?

And it seems that we are back again as the price is nearing $41k, volume is not that high and soon we may have to reach that $40k support level again. Recently we have a good pump, even reaching as high as $45k for a brief moment. So we may be really in for a long bear market again. It was a false hope for us to reach $50k, we thought that it is possible with the recent spike, but it is not.

Its looking more negative then I realized, I thought we remained in range but just towards the bottom of higher recent pricing.   We are actually through the ice with that range overhead now as potential resistance.   We will have to see how monday goes but Sunday of course is the end of the weekly bar and its looking negative in its formation, quite bearish.  
  Im still more positive then within the downtrend but its disappointing we have not held the range, it has now failed along with various moving averages.  This all suggests we have stalled and must reset to a lower price.

The very fact that you write about Bitcoin only and not about any other coin proves that you are aware of the importance of its position on the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is the most popular, and despite some of its shortcomings (which are constantly being improved), it will remain the market leader for a very long time. Of course, there will be better technoogy in the future, but at the moment we are left with a book and theories about that.

The recent rally was unexpected and once the it reaches a certain valuation, you should expect big investors to book their profit and that is what is going on in the market right now. I do not view the charts all the time to determine whether it is a trap or a positive sign as most of the times the market does not move according to what is indicated in the charts, use that as a reference point and that would be fine. ;)

It's weekend and maybe that is one reason why the volume might have slowed down a bit. So we will see on Monday, usually the Asian market is very strong on Monday so we will see if they can push the price higher again or we just remain and trade sideways. I know it's sorta disappointment but I would say that we are indeed in the bearish trend. Maybe just a occasional bounce here and there but the overall outlook is not looking good for the long term.

I still do not understand the weekend being a lower volume period. I mean it is not like we are a traditional market that closes during the weekend, we are open 7/24 and people have their jobs on weekdays which means they should be mainly more free during the weekend and should be trading a lot more during those days.

For some reason, people just decide to relax or something during weekend but crypto is not a job, they mostly have a job, so getting a break from crypto during weekends never made sense to me. But, that is definitely the main reason right now, I am sure that this week will be a lot higher volume and would start to see some bigger moves.

in my case, I look at the charts all the time to control the price and see how it behaves in certain resistances and supports, I like to trade (I don't trade in short timeframes because I don't see a profit) so it's important that I'm watching the chart every hour during the day and every day. there are times when I find it very tiring to watch the price, especially when there is a dump and the market is all in the red

You maybe right that the market is open even on weekends, but the thing is, people needs to have a break, spend their time with their families. And we all know that weekend is the best time. So mostly likely it will be the same for traditional and crypto market. Traders relax at weekends, hence the slow down that is evident on the market volumes. And then market goes live on Monday, traders comes back strong at the start.

Indeed, the price of bitcoin has broken through the $45k price level again since the beginning of February. However, until now the bitcoin price has continued to move below the $40k price level where the bitcoin price is currently back down to the $35k level. if the $35k price level doesn't hold and the price continues to decline, then the bearish potential will get bigger until it takes bitcoin a few months to recover.

Don't worry, it has now bounce back with a huge 10% increased in the last 24 hours. So there's no more $35k lowest low, instead we are not looking at $40k, maybe in 2 days if everything will still be strong as today's run. Although we are still in the bearish year, it's good that we are not going to see below $30k and we might just be hovering around $30k to maybe $50k this 2022.

Yes, the entire market moves with the movement of bitcoin. You will not see altcoins pumping when bitcoin is actually going down. That's why bitcoin is the king. If there is no good momentum in bitcoin, forget about the alts, they will dump even more than bitcoin.

Altcoins usually out perform bitcoin when bitcoin is stable or gradually moving up. Weakness in bitcoin means weakness in the overall crypto market.

There was indeed some factors to the current spike in the price, when there is a war, it is expected the majority of the financial markets should go down. So that what we have seen in the beginning.

But we have so far go over that notion, the price rebounded to even touch $45k, which is great in my opinion. Although it goes down again to $43k, I'm not seeing the price dipping below $40k.

Indeed, the price of bitcoin had risen to the price range of $44k in the last few days, but the price did not last long even now the price of bitcoin fell again to the range of $39k in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the extent to which the price of bitcoin will go down and up this year because geopolitical problems in Europe are still happening. In such a situation, many investors switch to other assets resulting in a large sell-off that causes the price of bitcoin to fall.

But for others, it is good opportunity to accumulate more as the bitcoin's price is speculated to be increasing in the next coming years. You may not look at the price level in short-term but if you are here for long-term, and you can wait long period before sell off, this is a very good chance to get more. Well, every holder has their own preferences. But in my opinion, this is good time to buy more while the price is below $40k. As adoption is predicted to grow more, hence, demand follows.

The 40k mark is significant, but what matters more is how well bitcoins keep their value at the end of the day in a declining economy. Plus, the market isn't heading down; it's fluctuating, but the little slump isn't cause for concern. There may be a brief uptick here and there, but the long-term picture does not appear promising.

Well the market has been fluctuating since the news of the outbreak of the war.
And still right now, from as high as $45k- below $40k now, there is a huge drop. Of course, we will see some uptick along the way, but we are indeed in a bearish trend so we might as well just continue to stock pile bitcoin and look at the bright side of another bear cycle. So it's going to be a hard grind again, years of seeing the price going down is going to be very difficult for the majority of us.

Just looking at daily bars is not a higher time frame really.    I'd say weekly bars is the minimum to call it a long term perspective, if we look back a year BTC is not especially weak.  Its not gained alot but thats not weakness exactly just a lack of gains.   50 day average for daily bars was in decline but now is flattening out which is a clue we can cease negative action I think.
  The weekly bars most relevant average would be the near yearly take of 50 week or 200 average, I prefer the 50 week for being more inclusive.  This measure has a decline but at present its simply served to cap the highest prices, so around 45k we have some struggle to turn around that limit to BTC gains.   Again we need to see BTC flatten out then stabilize and later perhaps resume regular appreciation in gains to a new ATH maybe; this whole year I dont expect that just yet especially with negative news we have.   In any case the graph says we take our time.

After this war, hopefully soon, we will see its aftermath in crypto market. And I believe, it will be on the positive side. If we will look daily, we will tell to ourselves that we are in the bearish period. However, looking at the big picture will change your perspective on bitcoin's market. It is now up to you how you will take advantage of this opportunity before we see its price rising again. It depends on your financial capability so if you can't afford losses along the way, you may want to re-think your strategy here.

Indeed no one expects a loss here, but what other strategy can we take at this time.
Should we be silent like this?
Oh yes...

Yesterday Thursday March 10, I read the news that the president of the United States (US) officially recognized digital assets including crypto.
And this is one of the good news for bitcoin when the bitcoin tension situation in the post-war situation even the American government has recognized crypto and Joe Biden who has given instructions to US officials to regulate crypto tokens such as Bitcoin cs.
So the market also responded positively to Biden's direction because so far the US has tended to be skeptical of digital assets including Bitcoin.
and I think this should be known by many people.

If the market survived the Pandemic in which the war is against an enemy that we cannot see then what more this war?
this is just from greedy attitude that upgraded to desire and power, so yes this will be a positive result once ended,
remember that we are all here because of our trust in market so continue that way and we will all get the fruit of our investments .

Let us look at the advantage when the price of market falls and that declining is what we most need to happen because instead of crying ? we are enjoying the season to fill more our basket of coins .
and what? the long term picture does not appear promising? how come? what is your position here?
the promise of currency cannot be sustain in short time and if we don't know how this works? then best not to learn it from there.

40k does seem quite important, its roughly the lows of last September for reference.   I see a rising trend on the lowest prices in each month since last summer, again it seems BTC is quite able to rise from here despite many sellers it has a good pattern to its lowest prices (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A3ySD.png)
  Establishing these past weeks as the low should make me alot more bullish as its in line an easily observed bullish trend.

No one can predict any market 100% of the time and that is just a fact, however you don't really have to, as long as you have the ability to predict what the market is going to do with an accuracy which is slightly higher than what you could do by chance and then you use money management skills, then that can be more than enough to produce some profits in the market, is it going to be enough to make you rich overnight? Of course not, but trading has never been about that.

I think being a whole number $40k is going to be very significant barrier or support  for us. Sure, this is the very important because it could spell make or break for us again in the market.

So far is in increasing, maybe tomorrow we might see it hitting $41k. If this happens the price could stabilize in this range up until the end of 3rd of March. I'm just curious as what could  be the scenario of the 4th week as usually the price goes down hard in this time.

Still waiting for what will the market brings us, from this January post the price of Bitcoin just come and back to 40k or at least 45k but not higher than that things that i believe a sign of bearish market?
or what I mean is staying in this position for the best result in the 4th quarter?
anyway I care nothing about the market now because i already Sealed my Bitcoin in my wallet lol, meaning non of those will come or go until the specific time i decided to sell out, I'm tired of buying and selling since I am not that good, so now I will try the practical way and that is completely holding .

I prefer the price of bitcoin to rise gradually, unlike in October and November last year which could rise up to more than 12% per day, the rise or fall which is not too significant makes investors calmer and less panicked, so they can make the best decisions, range $40-50k is ideal this year.

Hopefully we can end this year around the price range, $40k-$50k as it seems that we are in a bear market. So the price could make a downward shift to a all time lows, and so far that is $33k-$33k and others predicted that we can even go lower than that, we will see how it pan out. As that could be the worst scenario, but we can't do anything about it but just to continue to save and accumulate cheap bitcoin.

We can't point out what gonna happen in the market along with the current situation. We expect a lot of changes could either be a bearish or bullish market. However, we could assume that there is an increase in market demand bringing up the price again but can't just ignore the possible impact of the economic fall that most countries had suffered this time.
Apparently, we are seeing strong gains in price hikes at this time, likely we made a pump but not for the long-term.

Just because price doesn't go up, doesn't make it a bear market. I have been talking about this for months now, and did it during 2018 as well and people keep not understanding carefully. If you end up with a big fall, then stay at low price, you had a bear market but you are no longer in one. This is what people need to realize, you are not doing badly and you should not be considering this as a bear market.

I feel like we may not be successful in going higher, but that doesn't mean we are in a bear market. Hopefully it doesn't go too low, if it does go too low then we are going to end up with a lot worse results and it would not be a great moment and it could be called a bear market then.

Bitcoin, being a hedge against inflation helps it a lot. This means that while the fiat currency of many nations are going down, bitcoin should be going up, or at least it is a lot more valuable even if the price doesn't go up. The long term will always be greater because fiat is losing that value it has, 10 years later fiat will be worth less for sure.

It means that since we are pegged to fiat when calculating the price of bitcoin, it shouldn't be a problem for anyone to know it will be worth a lot more. So when you see short term increases, you know that it might be temporary, but it is definitely not undeservedly gone up at all, it has a right to go up due to inflation in fiat.

Don't worry mate because I think we will because the price now is at the 40+k already and it does not stays longer if ever it falls below this limit. When the increase began, we can also hit that 50k you are targeting to. Probably a continuous increase will start at the 3rd to 4th quarter of each year according to the previous years' charts.

Can't really agree when you say that we are still in a bear but to me the bears have ended already along with the month of February. We are now in a new month and new trend seems to be starting already, price getting stable is a proof to that but yeah we should still prepare for the worst thing that's going to happen.

A trader needs to know how to take advantage of every single opportunity that presents itself, it is true that when the market is experiencing extreme volatility and it shows huge trends then this is the perfect moment to get a lot of money out of the markets, but even if the current market conditions are not really suited for something like that to happen, you can still take advantage of it by buying bitcoin and preparing yourself for the next bull run before it comes.

Good to see some gains, getting over $40k is a good indication. And yet, for me the market seems to be shaky, and I'm still leaning towards a bear market the whole year. To make sure someones understand me, I will go back to 2017 December high and the subsequent scenario that happen after that, it was bearish cycle. So I'm thinking that it could be a repeat this year.

Thta's what you call fundamental for bitcoin, it's always strengthened, although there could be factors that can affect it, but usually it can hold itself.


Cause and effect, law of supply and demand. This is what makes the price of bitcoin very unstable and volatile. There are times that the demand is very high (bull run), and then when the demand is low (bearish). So that's what we need to look for, both markets might be hard to time, but nevertheless, if you have been in this game for so long, you will understand when to invest and be a holder.

The highest time frame I can refer to is the Dollar index which is made up of all the largest FIAT measures in the world.   If we have strong dollar we are unlikely to see many gains in BTC especially, though its still possible it would be uphill
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A3Pbg.png

The trend over many years for DXY is downwards but not aggressively so and the range within that trend is very large as we swing between lows and highs.  Presently Dollar is high in fact its exceeded this multi year trend shown here in the brighter blue.  This was a top price observed twice on this chart until the recent war and higher oil price seen during war action.  With the possible NATO, EU and Russian aggression occurring which is the largest war in Europe for some decades with greater contagion possible hence risk aversion has been in influence.  However all currencies continue to be weak despite that pullback in speculative flows and commodities are still booming relatively, I consider BTC to be quite similar to a commodity though its a unique asset.

tl;dr   If you want higher BTC consider the denominator, we really need to observe DXY sub 97 daily weekly then you may see actual greater gains on higher time frames and possibly outside prior boundaries.

The reality is that people forget the fact that you do not get "lucky" in crypto just because the price of the thing you hold goes up, or you are not "unlucky" that yours didn't. It is a fact that if you work hard and find everything you need to find about a project, and see how it could get better, then you would be making a ton of profit from it when the time comes, you may have been a little too early, but it will get there.

I had a friend who bought doge at under 3 cents in 2018, it was literally free money at that point, don't remember but it was but it was definitely under 3 cents each, he sold it for 55 cents each, that wasn't luck, dude was ready for it for many years.

And the gains continue up to this time, going above $45k, which is the biggest barrier so far. Anyhow, still a long way to go before the end of the year. And short term, it indicates that we might see a good price action around $50k and then we will see how it goes from them. So we might not see a bearish market for the first 6 months of the year.

with bitcoin's consistency in the $35k - $43k price range so far, i'm also sure in the next 6 months we won't see a bear market but for the end of 2022 ^{(Q4 2022)} we might see a slight correction before bitcoin hits ATH again.

There is no guarantee though, maybe we can fall below $35k unexpectedly with the short time frame (within 6 months) or the price will grow to $50k as we have touch $48k in the last 3 weeks or so. Again, there could be many surprises at least for the next three months, so let's see, if we can maintain that $35k - $43k price range then good, if not the more bearish outlook, in my opinion.

Bitcoin price above the price of 40k dollars was a unique one.By consider the price will go up the 50k dollars,huge people do the levied bet.When the traders had huge capital,they will make increase the investment.When the investment was increased to higher then their capacity,it will give them a enormous profit.Or they will get into the begging stage of money holding.

Currently, the bitcoin price is at the level of $40k whereas previously, the bitcoin price was on the path to rebound. Although there is a small correction but we will not move in a bear market. I believe the price of bitcoin will rise again in the next few weeks even though the increase is in the 5%-8% range.

I do hope that price would go up, I agree with you that it looks like it is trying to go up or the near future. However, bitcoin has this horrible way of just going down if it fails to go up. Whenever we see it try to go up and if it succeeds then it's great but then it ends up going down if it fails which is a terrible tragedy.

It could have stand there and just keep being at that price, fail to go up, and stand still but for some reason when it fails it starts to crash. I do not know why and how but that is just the situation at hand. So, I believe you are right that it is trying to go up for now, but if it fails and can't go up then we will see it go down unfortunately.

Sadly price failed to hold the 50 day average, the recent top was 200 day average so its been pretty negative since peaking at that point.    At best right now neutral would be the most reasonable view.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AsesZ.png

We do have a longer term uptrend underpinning the lows of most of this year and further back.    Continual testing would presumably not be positive longer term, it requires some of this momentum shown via MA to accumulate upwards some.

It looks like bitcoin has now bounced back from a local bottom. Exactly the same was true last week, when the market drop on Monday ended with bitcoin rising. If that is the case, then I agree that bitcoin and altcoins will rise in the short term. Probably in the long term such volatility can be called an accumulation.

this is a very normal answer , Bitcoin will rise short term? but when will this be? because as far as i remember?  bitcoin can increase today and it can decrease tomorrow .
so why instead of assuming big growth ,  when we can just enjoy in lower income .
so yes forget greediness but learn how to keep small income but at least surely .

Today Market Fall Again is more than 5% and back dropped below $ 40K, for the Pope, of course this is a good opportunity to buy again because I'm sure the market will skyrocket again, usually after dropping below $ 40K, there will be more pumping so that it will occur so that pumping will occur again so that there will be pumping again so that Prices will skyrocket in a short time.

I see bitcoin is indeed in a bear phase in a small time frame, which makes many investors prefer to sell it. But you can see in the big time frame that bitcoin will correct before continuing to rise, actually this correction is a very good time to buy.

It is unlikely that the market will bounce back from this price, but at the current price we can start buying. We are in bear season, best still be careful not to be too greedy or you will have to pay dearly. The market is unpredictable. When the market is moving so unpredictable like this, I choose to stay out instead of thinking we are at the bottom. As for the market, we still have a chance to make money so don't be too hasty.

I've always been an investor looking forward to this.  A bounce is certain, but I think the market will need to sustain and consolidate around this $38k resistance before spurring more healthy price action. 

Market sentiment is dire and it's time to move plans into focus for bitcoin.  Assuming the market ends April at $40k in bitcoin, not a bad thing, even I think it's a bigger win after the series of FUD socks still going on.  Lol

Buyers with a long-term plan will see prospects at a favorable price, traders will want to buy at this price with a large position for profit.  That's the market, the consolidation needs a base and a single point to increase sharply.

After the recent price correction to $37.7K, today bitcoin is back up to $39K price which means there is an increase in demand in the market when the downturn appears. Sure we're in a tough period to see bitcoin in a bull market, but that wouldn't make me think the price will correct more than 50% of its previous ATH any time soon.

The upside potential is always there, of course, but I think it's difficult for bitcoin to break through $50K in the near term or during 2022. It was noted that the highest price in the last 4 months was $48K, and it happened at the end of last March and early january.

And that is also normal that a drop is always followed by a rise because that is how this cycle works. A short term has no specific date. It can be a day or two, a week or a month but longer than that is not considered to be short term anymore.

What he answered above was normal but is there a problem with that? What response are you expecting here? He is just an ordinary guy like everyone else and he will be lying if he says an exact date or if he will say that the price will rise long term (if this is what you wanted to hear). But, indeed being greedy is not good however having patience to hodl for long term doesn't also mean that they are greedy.

Bitcoin looking weak and not going down wouldn't be a total surprise, it has done that before and it will probably do it again. I am guessing that there is a 50-50% chance as always for it go up as much as for it to go down. However, we should still be careful because it seems like there is a bit of a problem with the current market and it looks like there isn't enough hype.

This isn't just data any more, people are losing hope and excitement about bitcoin which is the most dangerous thing. If the data shows that it will go down, a hyped group of people who create a big enough noise could turn that around, but if the community loses hope, regaining it takes a long time.

Dangerous for short term speculation sure, but if you're like most long-termers waiting patiently for the next rally (or let's say even the next ATH), then every dip's just a ridiculous opportunity (just as whales constantly do, as recently as the last weekend).

I'd much rather this "hyped group of people" pour on the noise, find a floor, drain out the weak hands and decide once and for all (for now) where the bottom is, and build up from there.

I get that it could be looking negative for the time being, but that negative is basically people are not really interested in the upwards trend right now and nothing else. I get that it is not going to be that simple, and I know that it is going to be a quite good long time before we get there, but even a good hype news could change everything in a single second.

I personally believe that the negative outlook for the future will change, and not after it drops, I believe it will change before it drops. We will probably hit under 39k, but then we are going to go towards 42k+ very soon, like next week at the start of the month levels of soon, then it is just going to go up until it can't, no idea where it will stop.

Bitcoin will drop more before the surge will start.
I'm also an optimistic person but sometimes we also look at the negative side of the market as this may happen usually after the peak period which is the last year 2021. This year 2022 seems to be a difficult year for crypto again but this serves as an opportunity for the investors, in fact, many are also waiting for this bear season to come. But as the accumulation has been done, we gonna expect a slow recovery in the latter part of this year, that gonna be in the 4th quarter.

Some time I can't stop to wonder why some forks will use Bitcoin immediate conditions to forecast the future, we have seen from past event how Bitcoin price movement have hard direct impact on the altcoin market this is so because the stock market is an inter depending chain that work together and any time there is a sharp drop in the price of a major assets is will result in drastic drop on smaller asset in the same ecosystems.

Bitcoin from history have hard a back and forth price movement and to me the present Bitcoin market conditions is not a bear market yet as the percentage loses in the price is not up to bear lose, we are in a mixture of bull and correction mode but the direction the market will take that is what will determine the condition of the market either the bear market a a full bull run.

Perhaps they are forecasting for short term and obviously, maybe they are a day trading and wanted to see the price movement before making their move.


Lol, if the price is going down from our last all time high, then we are in a bear market already. The conditions are already here, admit it or not. The current price is like 40%++ below the last all time high of $69k. So for the majority this is like the 2018 bear market, or history repeating itself, the 4 year cycle.

Its not a bear market, we've just gone sideways for about a year.  In momentum terms its a flat to neutral slow market but we arent really negative in big terms.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AsiLP.png

Sum total people shouldnt be so negative in their outcome, despite the pullback its not a grand move or spiral downwards.   Blue line is here is a yearly average, last year we were of course positive and remained above it till December and since then we've been in a decline but in the two years we went sideways after gaining a massive amount and thats the part that matters still now.

I was not able to see and compared the chart in a 1-year time frame.
The patterns seem to look the same and it was not really to say that we are totally on the bearish side but if we see a closer time frame like 1 month, we can see a huge dump, a continuous dump that appears to our mind as bearish season.

But if the current situation never changes, I'm really going to say that this was not just a common market correction, it is likely we turn to bearish again.

I think the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise in the short term and this can be seen when the bitcoin price is currently trading in the $39k-$38k range. Although Bitcoin price movements may still experience a correction from the current price, it seems that we are not moving in a bear market anymore.

Even though we can't believe that the market will turn down again as we think the adoption helps it to keep high. However, the situation seems to change, sometimes we have to accept the thing that the market is not bullish always, and the bear season may come as well. Whether we like it or not, we can't hold the market to keep at $40k, the trend isn't looking good as it continues to decline. Of course, we can't lose our hopes as surely the market recover sooner but for now, we face in the big challenge again.

I think even though in the last few weeks the price of bitcoin has fallen below the $40k area, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to move in a bear market. I see the current price decline as a move to breakout again and the bitcoin price has the potential to retest to the $42K area.

I also believe bitcoin might grow a bit in the near future, but if you think about the global price movement, we have been in a down-trend for a long time and it is not clear to me why and on what news cryptocurrencies will grow. Now there is a global crisis in the world, inflation is barely contained, there is a war going on and a new pandemic of covids is predicted. We are likely to be in a bear market for a few years. Although I will be happy if my reasoning is wrong.

Seeing the uncertainty of the current bitcoin market situation, and the market reacting to uncertainty in very different ways. Whereas since the last few weeks the bitcoin price has been on an upward path but it seems that currently, bitcoin has failed to continue its price increase where the bitcoin price is currently back down to the level of $21k.

Bitcoin has broken 20,000$ and even 19,000$ but we are still not seeing any strength in the market. Bears are in full control of the market and it seems it is impossible for the bulls to show any strength. For taking entry, i am waiting for any bullish structure which seems not to be there for now. However, i think now the bottom is very near.

Indeed bitcoin is in a downward price trend that has been going on since the last few month where the bitcoin price is currently trading in the $20k-$19k area. This decline could be a reaction to accelerate a significant up move. Therefore, I am optimistic that bitcoin will breakout again in the resistance area above $30k.

This is very true, when people are selling bitcoin, that means there are a lot of bitcoins in the market that is unsold but being sold at the moment, and that means that anyone with just a bit of money could bulk purchase plenty of time. Remember, there are companies who bought billions of dollars worth of bitcoin, and that is a lot, like tens of thousands of bitcoins.

If anyone wanted to do the same, 10k bitcoins would worth only 200 million give or take, and that is very cheap, when it goes to 60k again one day ,that is 600 million so a 400 million dollar profit. You can buy even more and make even more profit and there are many companies in wall street that is looking to do exactly just that.

200 million dollars cheap? No way mate. There are big companies out there but I don't think they can invest that huge for a highly unstable asset/investment but I think they can allocate more funds on traditional investments. For btc maybe they can only invest hundreds and thousands of dollars and max would be a million or two.

@StreakW if someone wants to accelerate the increase of btc then they should buy not sell. Selling will have an opposite effect and that is the price can go down but even if they did that, there is still always a chance that btc can go back to its previous level, I am talking about the higher price only and not the lower ones since we are already in here at the moment.

Right. Indeed a bear market has been going on for the last few months where the price of bitcoin plummeted. After seeing the bitcoin price so far still stuck in the $24k-$23kk area, it will allow the bitcoin price to decline further towards the $20K area. If bitcoin is stuck in the $20K-$19k resistance area, then the bearish trend continues and a bullish season is unlikely to happen this year.

At this time it seems unlikely we are going to see a bull season during this year, even if there was a recovery after the crash, and this is a good sign, it is not like the price is moving upwards at an incredible pace, there are simply too many factors which will limit the growth potential of bitcoin during the rest of this year and the next year as well, the best we can do is simply to accumulate bitcoin at the low prices we are seeing and then hope for the bull market to come during 2024.

Based on what people are observing in the community show that Bitcoin is slow in this year 2022 because many people were expecting massive pumping of Bitcoin price so that they will use this year 2022 to make enough incomes from their investments. I believe, the price is still struggle to move to $40k so that people will have hope that the price will reach $70k before the end of this year.

I would like the bottom were very near, but I'm not so sure anymore. Before I expected the bottom was at 40,000$, then 30,000$, now 20,000$, but it seems it's also not the dip yet, because bitcoin crashed to 19,000$ already. Until a significant fluctuation happens we can expect the bottom is going to be at even lower levels of price range. The scenario this year isn't being good for people who live from crypto, and unfortunatelly it can discourage people from adopting crypto on their daily life. Not that they will set crypto aside, but the importance and presence of crypto on their lives can decrease considerably.

We can say that the bottom is near but we do not know what could be the potential bottom. If the bottom is near 10,000$ then it is 50 percent of the current price, which is quite significant. If bitcoin price reaches that amount, it wil be very bad for the overall market and most probably death for most of the altcoins.

I hope bull manages to take the market up from here and we do not have to face the blood bath. Bear markets are really painful and the old bitcoin investors are very well aware of it.

Right. I agree with you that for the rest of the year it is unlikely that there will be a bullish season and the market situation is showing no signs of recovery. While the price of bitcoin is still low, we can take advantage of the momentum to collect bitcoin and hold it in the long term at least until 2024 because that year is the bitcoin halving if it refers to the 4-year cycle.

When you look on the previous cycle of Bitcoin during pandemic hits. The chart of Bitcoin on higher time frame is hopeless but suddenly some good news from institutional investors investing on crypto make the trend reverse instantly that create a massive bullrun until the current ATH.

I think bullrun comes in surprise since no one can predict whales and they usually enter when no one is buying due to the fear of losing on this bearish market. It’s still early for us to assume that bullrun will not come this year.

if the 4 year cycle goes back then 2025 is the peak and 2022-2023 looks like it will be a year of accumulation,
yes, this has been proven now, because the chart shows Bitcoin price is still at the bottom and is still difficult to break the $30k resistance,
of course this still identifies that Bitcoin still bearish.

I do think halving will have significance, but numerous "firsts" in the past year (first time we maintain levels below previous ATH in a cycle being the most important to me) makes me less and less confident that we see a repeat of past cycles. So while I still think 2025 will be rallying time, I'm not sure we see ATH till a bit later (or even much earlier). Macro pressures have never been so strong in speculation markets.

$30k resistance? We're all still hung up over $20k now haha.

The most important part of this year was staying below a 200 week average for any period of time, thats a measured average rather then the ATH idea which is a guess on correct pricing.  Most likely 20k wasnt entirely reliable as a price point due to excessive congestion, as I remember it fees to send anything were about 40 dollars or something silly hence volume was not really reflecting the entire population of users beyond speculative trades.

But that was a long time ago, it was 2017 if I'm not mistaken about the network congestions that you are talking about. Anyhow, this is the price first in history that bitcoin goes below it's previous all time high.

It could indicate that the next bull run might be higher than everyone is expected, so it means it will be so massive. Or just about to nice the 6 digit market and that the prediction in 2021 should happened in 2025. Anyhow, still a long time to see what will happen.

It we're talking the 200 week average meaning anything and apparently to my surprise it has a weight and meaning in BTC price action then 2017 isnt forever ago its just 5 years.  We talk about 4 year cycles well that was not that long ago, theres relevance to the present pricing.   Its probably all relevant in terms of behavior and volatility but I do think 2019 pricing might be where I measure the strength in extreme lows for BTC in 2022 and next year rather then 2017.

I would still contest first time ever because we arent sure of actual value only the nominal prices.  We are pricing BTC in dollars and the current FIAT standard in 2022 is not the same Dollar of previous years.  It keeps changing, there is no fixed worth its quite certain its losing part of its value erratically every year for many years.

$20k is reliable actually because this is the only price point that we have that stayed. I don't know what did you do on why your fees have skyrocketed like that but I remember I did a lot of transactions last time when the price was still at $20k and I only pay less than a dollar for the fees.

For sure 2022 is a year for accumulation but we don't know yet if this will continue till next year or not. If it did then maybe the 4 year cycle is really repeating. That's going to be a long wait but the good part is that it gives other people a chance to accumulate especially If they are a newly entrant in this market. The timing is going to be good for them. $30k btw is not the resistance level. We aren't even close to that but $25k is the real one.