Bitcoin Forum

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

Similar to going up that just because price has gone up to some extent it doesn't mean it has to continue going up until eternity, going down is the same. Price doesn't have to continue going down just because it has fallen for some time.
Your reasoning makes no sense.

Retail users already out, this is why the price was fall... if they aren't out it won't hit $35K. They're scared of the market and can't relax, definitely they will sell in loss. After that, when the market recovered and the price back to $50K they will join again and buy with higher price.

The thing is there're so many articles create bad news about Bitcoin while the fact it's a old news or unrelated, but many people believe it.

I don't believe retailers caused the price drop from $42k down to where we are now around $35k+ but yeah, most retailers must have dumped too because of the fear of not knowing how far this can go but why do people keep doing that though and yet everyone wants the price to keep going up even if they are the first to dump in the slightest down move? I guess that is why they will always lose because they will end up buying back at a higher price.

How do you really know, though? Having several weeks of red doesn't automatically mean that they're totally out. Also taking into consideration that a good chunk of money in bitcoin is still retail; if they were really totally out, we'd be far lower from here. (not saying retail needs to be out for us to have a bounce btw)

People exiting is not an alarming thing. Crypto has not yet established itself to have steady numbers in users and fluctuations will happen, especially as the preoposed bear market is coming round the corner. But I also expect those same groups of people to return when things have settled down a bit, and with them bring some new blood.

Not a good scenario? I don't think so but yeah sort of bad because we don't want to see it going low further. But, we also know that there's no going up forever so it's acceptable.

I like what you said in the last part.

If you can't bear with the lows then you can't go on and enjoy the highs. That's simple as that.

I agree to the OP that anybody who would have gotten in during the last phase of frenzy and ATH, with the over the top marketing about bitcoin to 100K or 1 Million. These people are the worst hit in the immediate correction. This has been happening for a long time. Not everybody has the patience and the financial capability to sustain those losses.

Those who can wait and keep holding are generally rewarded handsomely. Just keep learning and interacting within the various communities and projects. Find your niche and work on it. It takes time and effort more than just money and luck. But yeah, nothing better if you have shitload of luck..

I am one of what you call retail users, if I understand it right. The current situation of the market is indeed painful but only from the point of view of the Bitcoin that I acquired when the price was higher. But it is a blessing from the point of view of the Bitcoin that I have yet to acquire in the following days.

So every time Bitcoin’s price moves in huge strides, the experience is bittersweet. In which case, there is really no reason to give up. Not to mention that I’ve been through worse days in the past. Just like the past bear cycles, this, too, shall pass.

And as always, those who persevere and continue to HODL strong shall be rewarded in the end.

Retail investors are mostly newbie investors and they are more likely speculators not investors. They are most vulnerable participants in the market with market crash, correction, wash out.

The market need capital flow to grow but retail investors or speculators don't have much capital. It's mainly from institutional investors and retail guys only join when the market is very hot. They will be washed out it hot corrections or crashes later.

The market can not go down forever and if you believe in Bitcoin, it is very good chance to invest or accumulate more.

I am actually seeing the opposite. I am seeing a lot of discussions from people all over using this dip to cost average down. They even have the attitude that if it keeps dropping the will keep buying. Everyone sees what they want to see. If you think BTC will do well then you see this as a chance to acquire more if you think BTC will not succeed then you see this as justification that you are correct.

I see this as yet another cycle of BTC going up, then dropping then going up even more and having the cycle repeat.
Big big companies such as Intel: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382058 are thinking that BTC is a good place to be in terms of hardware.
And many financial institutions are also coming onboard with trading.

So, no I don't see retail users out at all.

-Dave

Why you think that? Maybe it's the big investors who have given up, while the retail investors are hodling strong. Without any evidence, it's all nothing more but a speculation.


Bitcoin market is not strongly tied to news and sentiment. The recent rise from a correction of $30k to the new ATH happened without any notable news, really. And now it's falling without any significant news too. The crash is happening because stocks are crashing, and because Bitcoin market in general cools off because the rally has ended.

IMO, I believe that most of the retail users are always doing that ever since they are just in and out of the market and I believe that's normal, so that was not the main reason why the price has declined as much as it is today because as we know the market reacts in the news around us like the pandemic, regulations, wars, etc. factors like that are one of the many reasons that can influence the price movement.  

We are also retail users and i have not sold in panic.

You haven't, but majority will be in panic upon the sudden crash of the market. If the market have fallen gradually people might've gained some confidence to hold for some time period. Now the steep crash serves to be the reason for more selling. Importantly the market has much dependence over reatil people, so everyone haven't left. If everyone have left now the fall would be even down as most users mentioned.

Growth and crash are part of matured growth. If there is only straight growth without crash then it is something a manipulated growth.

I feel that retail capitulation was in December. Many indicators show that most weak hands were actually flushed back then. You can find a number of similarities in the current correction with the ones in the past, especially if you look at the RSI.

The first big weak hand flush out was in 2020 when we hit 30k. Then scared retail investors waited longer, so they did not enter at 40k, most of them waited longer to around 60k, which is why we had a higher high back then. Smart money took positions at 35-40k and retail was scared of a lower high so they went in later and pushed the price to 69k, but it was the same retail that got flushed in Spring, with no FOMO crowd, which is why the top was so low. There was no mania phase this time.

You can also see this by comparing the big capitulation candles in May and December. The first one happened later and went deeper down because retail bought earlier and could hold longer in the falling market. (40-30k) In December the candle started higher (50k-40k) which indicates that retail was pushed to the limit at higher prices. They waited longer with their buys and bought closer to the peak.

IMO this is good because it indicates that smart money entry level was higher in Q4 2020 than in Q1, which suggests that a low should also be higher. There's more long term holders at higher levels now than in Spring.

I don't think that retail investors have given up, maybe they sell but not all of their stash. And you can't blame them though, this is really tough times to see the price being slash by 50% from it's all time high. Nevertheless, those retail investors have a lot of time to think and maybe will go and comeback if the price goes lower than $30k before the price is again on a discount.

Indeed, Bitcoin seems to reward hodlers aka long - term investors, but so do the equity markets or any asset that has strong fundamentals. Equity markets thrive thanks to the raising productivity growth while Bitcoin keeps conquering bear markets thanks to its characteristics that make it a goods store-of-value and not only.

*Note that the Bitcoin holders are rewarded much handsomely because of the novelty of the asset class. The perceived risk is higher, but so it is the reward.

It's amazing that whenever the price of bitcoin drops a lot people keep complaining every day, but when the price goes up a lot they don't complain about the danger of someone buying at the top. and we have to take into account that with every fall there is someone who will buy a lot and sell with every big price increase

and speaking of buying in every fall:

El Salvador buys its cheapest 410 Bitcoin as prices reach $36K (https://cointelegraph.com/news/el-salvador-buys-its-cheapest-410-bitcoin-as-prices-reach-36k)

The volume outside US stock market has dropped, but this is probably a good thing.
lots of retailers are just waiting for the bottom, I suspect a recovery would be a few big green sticks for a few days and we will have more retailers going back in, and then the rest of the world jumping in again.

That being said, the biggest problem really is the entire market overall, equity market is suffering a lot as well and has been pretty poor for the past few months (if not year). A lot of growth stocks are still hurting BAD.

Retail investors is not what the price keeps high but rather institutional investors. If institutional investors hold then there's no way retail investors can bring down the price more further. They will just re-enter again once the price go sideways since they are always chasing small gains that's why FOMO is always active during uptrend period. Small fish money is eaten by whales by making this manipulated bear market season.

Retail investors selling out is what big investors are waiting for. Institutional investors including. But I think not all retail investors are getting out, there is no way for finding it out. I could only presume the first to have sold are the big investors taking profit and then waiting for the price to finally dip to thier desirable price.

If it's a manipulated bear market, it's probably going to take a very long time before going up. Retail investors will likely dive into the options market which they eventually lose more and that's when the big fishes come again.

Who has left and who has joined is not the thing to think about. They can be retail investors but they can also be financial institutions. Consider the fact that the dump made the price drop from 40k to 35k - that volume is not possible to for a retail investor to posses.

There was a lot of inorganic growth in the last few months with certain tech companies putting in their money. Why not consider that they are reason for the bailout? Even then the answer does not solve the problem of low price.

Up and down are the only ways the market can move in order to give profit to those who are betting on it. Without movement people start questioning bitcoin and its use which is absurd, because bitcoin was meant for a purpose that has become secondary. Even then, the drop in price is an opportunity for buying and that is what traders should plan for.

You talk so much of negativities nut did not give any conclusions in the past performance of the market so you seems to be bias here lol.

try to consider both parts, the good thing and the bad thing and that will dictate what is the future is.

also market is recovering , look at it now lol the green is still there and increasing .

This is just a bunch of bald statements.
Did you conducted a survey among retail users?Did you do any kind or research and did you gather any statistical data,which can be verified?I don't think so.
OK,maybe a part of the retail users are out,but that doesn't mean they won't come back.
What do you mean by "continuously suffering financially and mentally"?
I big part of my savings is in BTC.My savings have a 50% lower value,compared to the October BTC price.
That doesn't mean that I'm suffering financially.The real suffering happens when you sell at a loss.
HODLing isn't financial suffering.

Many of us in the forum are retail users but the point here is if the majority or a significant percentage of retail users have sold. And I believe they have. The retail users of the forum are quite different from the typical retail user who buys ATH because he thinks it will not stop going up until it reaches $1M and sells at the first dip out of FUD.

I understand, it's not because all retailers sell their Bitcoins... but they're making panic in the market and it will affect to the other people including long term holder. Most of long term holder are more wise and knowing the market, but they might sell his coins in order to accumulate more Bitcoins. Of course this isn't wrong, but more or less it's effecting his mentally.

Yep they might want to try their luck to recover their loss, but mostly they're ended loss more. IMO only an old traders and long term holder who's still in the market, rest of them were pretty much wait and see how the market will goes on.

I am a retail user and I didn't sell, not a single Satoshi has left my wallet for quite a while now. On the contrary, I am happily stacking Sats. I work and get paid in Bitcoin. Whatever I earn stays in my wallet. No conversion is made. I have to find other ways to live, but I don't touch my Bitcoin salary.

Anyway, there's no way we can tell whether the retail users in this forum have stronger hands than those who are outside. It seems to me they're not, there's nothing special with the users here except perhaps the advanced ones or the OGs.

There is a bit of a weird framing when trying to frame this matter as if retail is getting scared off from bitcoin, and shaken out from their coins.

Sure, there has always been some scaring out of retail from Bitcoin, but one of the game-changer/innovative aspects of bitcoin has been that it is one of the ONLY investments in which retail has been able to get into it way earlier than institutions or the rich.

One of the reasons that bitcoin is serving and going to likely continue to serve as one of the greatest wealth transfer vehicles in history is because retail (including normies) have been able to get into it way easier than the status quo rich... and surely the status quo rich are still having trouble grasping the value of bitcoin, so bitcoin still can serve as a vehicle for retail and normies to get ahead of the status quo rich (and institutions)..

So, maybe there is a bit of an artificial descriptor when trying to figure out whether some folks are retail or institutions, because many of us have recognized and appreciated that more institutions have been coming into bitcoin, especially since Michael Saylor has been talking about bitcoin (that would have been August 2020 and his various efforts thereafter to provide roadmaps for institutions and status quo rich to get into bitcoin).

In any event, bitcoin does still provide ease of access to normies and to retail in the event that normies and retail can continue to recognize and appreciate the value of bitcoin.  Surely institutions and the status quo rich are in greater positions to manipulate bitcoin, even though guys like Saylor are not suggesting those kinds of in and out strategies.. but instead long term investing and holding bitcoin.. which is going to push bitcoin's price up, but merely having higher prices does not eliminate retail or normies from doing what they can to invest in bitcoin...

and yeah, maybe in 2015, retail and normies could have bought 100 BTC for $25k, and now they can ONLY get 0.5BTC for the same dollar value, but they are not locked out of bitcoin merely because they are not able to accumulate as much of it.. so each person/normie has to decide for himself/herself how to go about getting a stake in bitcoin, and potentially increasing their stake with the passage of time and maintaining a stake with a kind of long term vision that will likely continue to reward those who come to bitcoin (the earlier the better) whether institutions or individuals, and even if they perceive the price to be high, they are still going to be better off to accumulate because it is likely that we are still relatively early days - even if it may not feel so sometimes when looking back at bitcoin's historic UPpity price performance.,. and the longer that people are in, the more likely that they will be able to recognize and appreciate the value of their having had gotten started early (like that old saying "time in the market, not timing the market")...

Retail investors are like sheep, they just follow the trend. They have no real investing expertise or experience. The majority probably bought the top when FOMO kicked in at 60k & sold at a loss at some point after that. They’ll be back, like they are every cycle. Do the opposite of what these guys do, that’s what the smart money does.

every crypto user has their own goals in this market. either they are here for short-term or long-term holding. so yes, even retailers can hold long-term and sell it once they got their target profits. that is, if the retailer has other means to sustain his living. because if not, if he is relying also from his crypto portfolio to survive, i am certain that he will sell even at a loss to cover his basic necessities. it means, it depends on the financial capability of the retailer here. and it varies from one person to another.

I will disagree with you, because the purpose of investment is to make a profit, portraying that most of retail investors purchase at high cost and sell at low rate might not be cogent suggestions from my perspective, because what triggers any investor to purchase coin or invest at certain situations is to make profit, and in any venture you most know the rudiments of it before adventuring into, and they most be target during investment and before investment, i believe it's certain.

I think a lot of retail investors have been out of Bitcoin and into altcoins for a long time. One major explanation for this in my opinion is a lack of education on market cap and being discouraged by Bitcoin’s high per coin price. I think this is why am ETF will have more widespread adoption among retail investors. Most of the small investors I talk with these days are into Ethereum and a basket of unknown coins. So I don’t think retail being in or out makes much of a difference at this stage. Investment funds are scooping up all they can and that is perhaps the more important information.

Your definition of retail comes off as quite strange (and maybe too narrow).. unless you are referring to a specific kind of retail.. and that would likely need to be another word.

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of regular people would be considered "retail," so in that regard, almost everyone in bitcoin in the earliest years were "retail."  Sure there were some non-retail (meaning institutions) investing in bitcoin in early days, but those were rare.. the vast majority of the investors in bitcoin were retail.. and ONLY recently has some of the institutions been warming up to bitcoin and coming into bitcoin, and probably more of a flux of incoming after Saylor started to set forth some entry into bitcoin guidelines...

another thing is that some institutions (non-retail) could not even get into bitcoin, even if they wanted to because they would ONLY be able to buy a product in which there was some kind of third-party custodian.. they would not be able to hold directly and so between about 2014 and 2018/2019, one of the only ways to hold bitcoin was through something like GBTC.  Other products that had custodian solutions started to come on the market in late 2017.. and kind of expanding since then, but still there remains an overwhelming quantity of bitcoin that are still within the hands of retail rather than institutions.. so in that regard, bitcoin still looks quite a bit different from other investments.


Well, you are probably right in regards to a lot of dumb fuck normies get distracted into a variety of shitcoins because they believe the various misleading stories coming from the shitcoin marketing camps.. so a lot of those folks are likely going to get screwed if they don't recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is the actual superior investment.. especially if they have any kind of long term investment time horizon.. and something like 4-10 years or more is a good way of thinking about it.  There is hardly any shitcoin, including that smoke and mirrors piece of crap ethereum that have strong enough fundamentals to be investing into them in 4-10 year or longer time horizons.

I am not even arguing that Ethereum is not going to keep up their deceptive bullshit for another 10-20 years or more, but that still does not make them into a good investment, including various other shitcoins that are largely propped up and correlated to the success of bitcoin... so in some sense I might agree with you if you were to be asking why invest in any of the various shitcoins if they are ONLY based on bitcoin's success.. and you are likely NOT saying that because there are so many folks who actually believe the nonsense stories that imply some of the various currently existing shitcoins could actually exist/survive absent the security umbrella that is provided by the strength of bitcoin.

One of the underlying ideas of "investing" is that it tends to be longer term.. or at least it should be.  Otherwise you may well be merely screwing around with a gambling kind of practice and playing around too much.

There is no guarantees with any investment, but historically bitcoin has shown itself to be good in the long term, and the longer that you are in, the greater the likelihood that you are in profits and the greater the profits for the longer the period of time that you are in.  There is no real reason to believe that bitcoin is not going to continue as a solid long term investment into the future, even if the profits might not be as high as a percentage as they have been in the past.. and also one of the reasons why it may well be better to not give too many shits about whether you can read the situation or the market or the charts, and just figure out a plan to buy BTC on a regular basis, and if you are buying $10 per week, $100 per week, or $1,000 per week, depending on your personal situation and budget, you are likely to prosper into the future, and having an investment timeline of 4 to 10 years or even longer is likely going to be helpful to be able to have that level of patience.

Even currently, there are not too many bitcoiners who have more than 10 years in bitcoin, since bitcoin is really ONLY 13 years old and probably not much more than 10 years old in terms of any kind of meaningful ability for normies to access it as an investment.

In other words, it seems that the smarter investor is going to attempt to figure out his/her personal situation first, and then figure out a level of investment into bitcoin.. and perhaps tweaking the investment techniques along the way.. and that should likely pay off in decent ways... perhaps paying off more for those who are a bit more aggressive in their investment strategy and attempting to front-load, lump sum invest and buy on dips so long as they do not over do their investment in such a way that they want to make sure that they are not so aggressive as to not have a firm grasp on their own budget, expenses, including emergency expenses that might come up from time to time and also potentially outrageous changes (up or down) in the BTC price, which also might come from time to time.