Bitcoin Forum

Huobi co-founder predicts this cycle is going to repeat itself, following the last bear market pattern, which started right after the ATH of 2017 and lasted long painful years... Is it too pessimistic to think this way or is the halving the real game changer factor which drives market's prices, as Du Jun says?

He also mentions another factors such pandemics and geopolitical issues can influence bitcoin's price, but it's clear the halving factor was highlighted as the most important and influent one among all.

Bitcoin is shaping up to enter a bear market and likely won't recover until 2025, co-founder of Huobi crypto exchange says (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-bear-market-until-2025-halving-huobi-founder-2022-2)

In comparison with the previous bull market of the year 2017 he have predicted the market. No one knows how the market movement takes place. As per the ongoing market moves there is very minimal chance for a massive bear market. However the reasons indicated have got the ability to make the market bearish as well as bullish.

Over the previous year the market experienced its ATH when I the entire world is suffering out of pandemic. In specific when the world market is in the decline, cryptomarket boomed. This time the pandemic and the political war urge between different nations are causing decline in the market. What the co-founder of huobi said have begun to happen with today's price decline reaching down to $37500.

It is undeniable that such a thing is a strong possibility, however at the same time times change and this means that just because something happened in the past it does not mean that we are going to see a repetition of this in the future, the pandemic has changed the world whether we like it or not, and it is unlikely the world will go back to the way it was, this awakened a lot of people especially when it comes to the power the governments have of printing money, and once you realize that there is no going back and looking for an alternative will always be on the back of their minds, and bitcoin will be there to fulfill that demand.

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

If it's about the cycle, the last halving was 2020 and it's really what we should wait if this year is going to be the bear market. We don't know that for sure.
But if the comparison ticks in, last 2021 there's a big correction that has happened that didn't happened when bitcoin was bullish at the end of 2017. Well, still going to find out but nothing beats the long term holders that have decided to hold for a few more years.

Luckily we havent able to have that very long bear market not like into those old years where we do suffer out on very bear market but we know that a market wont really stay up for that long.

As we do able to hit that ATH on last years for 2x which it do able to get as high as 60k+ and now we are playing around 38k even though its a bit low compared on last but

lets be wise on taking out some actions basing on the condition if you are really aiming for short term profits.

Not a bad take.  I think the 4-year cycle will be less and less of a thing going forward (but still existent to some point) as it has become clear that derivatives are playing a much larger role as time passes.  It seems likely that the manipulation and game playing with these derivatives is how big market players intend to profit in the future and the actual real price of Bitcoin will become less and less guided by market factors and more and more susceptible to the manipulation of market makers. 

So while it is possible that we'll see a long slide downward for a couple years followed by another boom, I think the rise will be far less than previous cycles on a % basis and far more dictated by Wall Street than actual Bitcoin users. 

We are still on a cycle but on a different price level so me might see another bear market if bad news continues to happen, we all know the effect of war issues with Bitcoin we are all affected by this. Bitcoin most likely will experience another turbulence and hopefully he can able to survive on this to avoid any big drop again. The pump can still happen this year, let’s not lose our hope for this one.

IMO the previous pattern has already been broken. Not only did the magnitude of price movements changed, we also witnessed the first bull cycle with a double top and a 50% correction in between those tops. Anything can happen from now on, including resumed bull run in this or next year. But I agree that the next halvening will spark another bull run after it will happen.

Yeah, it is what I'm hoping that it won't be the same. But as the cycles have been the same, it's likely that we might be getting into a longer bear this time. Even it might happen, we're still higher than the last bear market and these all time lows are better to see this time compared in the past. As it stays on $37k-$38k, the analyses that I've read is that if it goes below $30k once again, that would give a sort of confirmation that we're entering the bear market. Another thought of mine even if we enter at that range just like the last time, what if bitcoin starts to recover again so quick up to the next ATH?

It is possibly because Huobi co-founder is following the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin which had happened 3 times since its creation.  Looking at its pattern, it is logical to say that Bitcoin will have its Bull Market again by the year 2025 but of course, there are chances that Bitcoin price will surge every now and then but I am also inclined to the prediction that Bitcoin will have its Bull market after its halving.

The next Halvening is very likely in 2024 which means 2025 is on the far end of bearish expectations, cant say its wrong but I dont especially accept the reasoning for why they think BTC is challenged.  I believe dollar is more challenged and will continue to weaken.

  When people say suck they do realize the price is massively higher this year then just 18 months ago.   Its still generally ok, if we mean disappointment of no immediate gains suck then yea, its inevitable this must occur.   Some people purely hold BTC just to capture the gains then they sell, this process goes in cycles and we will do nothing for a while, maybe a year maybe two but I think 2025 is over doing it.   We will accumulate some gains before then, if nothing else ordinary currency is constantly being diluted so dollar 2025 will not resemble the current dollar.

We can't have a comparison of price relating the previous cycle, because what we had in the previous cycle is entirely different. During those days marketcap varies massive with the present day's and so is the userbase. By that time people feared to discuss about bitcoin and now it is open to everyone. More countries are into legalizing of bitcoin. So, we can expect a bear market but not as that of the 2017 price.

I can't make any decision yet but IMO, it's still unpredictable.

Bitcoin price has been proved that it will increase without knowing us and no one even predicted last year Bitcoin has been reached two times ATH.
So what crystal ball has been used by the co-founder of the Houbi exchange platform that he was able to predict the Bitcoin price?
It seems he makes this noise to become a popular one or for seeking attention.

Glad to see some threads about this, always looking on another side, not always "UP ONLY" post/threads.

So for me, I am also favored with OP, block halving cycle is already proven since before or start of the block halving, we saw a lot of changes in price actions over the time, there are always ups and downs, bear markets or bull markets which for me it is normal, especially we are still on early days of Bitcoin, it is more healthy for me.

Yeah so he says that now after crypto already lost 50% of its price. Where was he back in November when people were questioning is it going to top at $100K or $250K?

Same with many stocks. They are down 80% from their peak, however last summer when Peleton or Zoom peaked nobody assumed it was the top, they just assumed they would go up forever. And now everything thinks a bear market will start, it already started months ago. A bottom might be around the corner.

Its statements like this that come from a well-known CEO make people see how true what's coming in the market is. And panick sets in. It's really going to be disappointing for someone who will dump thier coins in the loss while the price goes back up. Looking at the charts we are very close to the bottom. In fact we bounced already.

Maybe keep some stablecoin ready for the withdrawal but keep some BTC in your personal wallet. I wouldn't recommend dumping everything you have going to bank accounts because we see how banks freeze accounts.

I don't think we'd still follow the same pattern? Besides, wasn't the 2017 depression mostly due to how it was such a huge bubble? The dump we had right now can be kind of unexpected since those always comes whenever the market hits a new high, but it's kinda doubtful whether it'd go down to a lower level than what we have right now. Nothing happening might be the worst scenario I can assume, just steady movement till probably idk, half a year to a year. Won't deny though that the period after halving brings about new peaks for Bitcoin.

Well the halving will be happening in 2024 , meaning this will be in take effect at 2025 so basically the expectation will be in 2025  bull run.

but of course things may change in different direction because there are countries that coming inside here and there , either adoption or acceptance but at least there are views we can see in the future .

If that's the prediction and it happens, we don't need to panic and can only prepare ourselves by trying to get profit for profit from now on so that if it really happens, we can buy lots of coins at the most basic price.
But I don't really think about it because if it is related to the halving, the remaining bitcoins, then the possibility is that the bitcoin price can still be above $35k or, at worst, maybe around $30k-$35k or it should stay at $33k-$40k but I don't know.
But hopefully, the price can stay in this price range and don't drop so deep that it can bounce back to $40k.
I think it can make our profit, especially if the price is always like that so we can profit many times.

Previous halving did not have any significant effect. The only effect that cryptocurrency has during last 1-2 years was Elon effect :D The boom of crypto and a creation of thousands of useless and scam meme coins. There were posts on the forum about "bitcoin-4-year-life-cycle". Looks like we are in the beginning of it. But I personally don't believe in all these cycles, predictions, holidays that impact price and other bs. Crypto community is very humble, naïve and young. "In which direction does the wind blow", there cryptocurrency goes.

When you read a sentence like this, you wonder what kind of crypto analysts they really are if they expect something to happen, and everyone should know that halving without exception happens every 210 000 blocks, and that it can’t happen in 2023 or 2025. The whole article is just bad journalism and PR for a certain company, there is nothing new or significant that we did not already know.

It is still too early to say whether we have entered the crypto winter phase, or whether the 4-year cycle will be interrupted. Recovery is still a relative thing, for some the current situation is an opportunity for daily profit and they certainly want this situation to last as long as possible.

One month ago,the Bitcoin price dropped to 34K USD and everyone was waiting for a 30K or 20K price bottom,stating that the recovery will be slow and a new ATH won't happen in 2023.
During February,the Bitcoin price went from 34K to 44K USD and everyone forgot about the doom&gloom predictions.Many people were expecting a bull run to 50K USD.
Now,the Bitcoin price is going down,all financial markets are going down due to the political situation.
The bears are dominating the market,predicting a new ATH in 2025.
In summary,don't trust anyone.Every opinion about the BTC price is just a price speculation.

The market will bounce back and further it can drop down. This is the common pattern with every market. Just a month back we're speculating in a similar way about the price drop nearing $30k, but the bounce back happened in a much shorter time than expected. Once again the price crash have been taking place with intermittent recovery. The price that reached $36500 have now crossed $38500. The market is speculative and it reacts. It is our responsibility to stay safe without making our own choice.

Well he seems pessimistic for how relatively bullish people are on this forum, but as the days go on I see less and less bullish people thinking that the top of this cycle was reached last year at almost $70k.

The bad thing is that if that is the case, it is normal to think that the spectacular returns of Bitcoin are over and that, getting to say $1M, is going to take a long time, and not a few years as some theories last year predicted (like the supercycle theory).

it is given that market of crypto falls after there is a great pump happen (that mostly comes from the effect of Bitcoin halving every 4 years)  i remember the 2017 scenario in which when 2018 comes the price of bitcoin really dumped(but altcoin made its season in early months) and what can we expect this year?
as 2021 made our path really high and majority of us makes its way up as we experienced a great pumping as i myself took at least 200% of my growth.

Most likely it happen because base on history this scenario really happen that's why on next halving we must be prepared for the dump to come. I'm sure those who experience the past halving already know this but for new traders or holders better this will be a learning experience to them since it can help them to create their trading plans if bull market season arrives again.

I also wouldn't believe if bitcoin wasn't able to recover or bounce back until 2025 it's a very long time running so bitcoin will continue like this.
Because I believe investors will come back again to push bitcoin up to the moon as happened in 2021 yesterday.
The prediction is like made up.

It happened twice already based on the explanation in the OP where they used two dates, 2016 and 2020 halving so there is a good chance that it will happen again. New entrants are lucky because there are now posts like this where they can use as a reference to know what to expect.

Halving might caused the value to dump if we look on the past dates but the duration is only 1 year and i think for me that was not long. After that, the price can go back again with greater returns. Buying and then holding is for 1 year is worth it. We still have 2 years to the next halving and cryptos can still recover and experience an ATH during this period.

Well it is now , seeing bitcoin drops to below 35k and now staying at 34 k?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

maybe the support would be at least 30k the most ..

can't wait to see the price of bitcoin falls down to 20k level as this was my target value to re invest all my funds in bank  ;D

I will risk everything that i have once this price reached back again.

You do it anyway, but what usually happens in these cases is that if it goes down to that level, the people who said they would buy at $20K, shit their pants and don't buy for fear of it going down further.

Imagine it gets to that level. It would be one step below $20K, and therefore, it would be the first time in a cycle that it goes below the top of the previous cycle. It would break all the schemes. Couple that with the fact that ATH this cycle, at least so far, has been relatively low, and I think a lot of people would panic if we hit $20K.

It seems to have happened because the price has dropped drastically but hopefully, it won't go down any further. Yes, people are now panicking to see the uncertain market conditions. If people are still panicking and selling their bitcoins quickly in the next few hours, that will trigger even more price declines. But it looks like this cycle won't be the same as it was a few years ago as things are already very different and an uptick is expected to come soon.

I think if this quadrennial cycle continues, chances are we are now in the first phase of a bear market. Moreover, currently, the price of bitcoin has fallen by almost 40% from the ATH level since last November 2021. But I'm sure the pattern of the four-year cycle is unlikely to be the same now that many countries have adopted bitcoin. Therefore I expect we can welcome a bull market not until the end of 2024.

I agree. because obviously bitcoin is getting matured because of adoption every year. so i don't think as well it will stay the same, i mean because of the pattern of four year cycle its possible to happen that bitcoin will stay bearish until 2025 and can't recover because of that halving..

Imagine bitcoin is already down since the ATH and currently at 39k level. so what if it happens what will be the value of bitcoin until 2025.?

I hope that won't happen and we have to convince new investors to keep believing that the bulls are going up because this year a lot of new investors are getting involved in bitcoin after the new ATH, and I'm sure all are expecting the price to recover and continue going up.
and if the bitcoin price reaches 20k i am sure their trust in bitcoin will decrease unless they understand bitcoin's footprint, every decrease must be a lot of them panicking who end up taking the wrong decision. So hopefully the decline is not up to 20k and what happens to the movement of bitcoin is only because of the news and pros and cons that have occurred so far which will eventually turn out to be pros and will increase the price of bitcoin, and the decline will still occur but will not go that far.

Yeah, even with this unexpected rally (and again, thanks to stock markets I would say), I ain't expecting to upgrade my personal view of where we gonna be at this year. Happy to wait til 2025 haha. Halving is the one true factor that has not failed markets, and the pricing in will only begin next year at earliest.

Stack them well, gentlemen.

Seems an extreme way to put it that ATH would be a recovery and anything less is something negative.    This whole price range is well above previous trading for BTC over many years so it remains positive but just not at its highs.   Right now price is trending positively though nominally sideways its doing well so long its above the weekly average which it is.   Todays postive marker would be something 38.5k, seems like we would close the week out here despite being in the midst of a disruptive war in Europe.

I don't mind if bitcoin won't recover until 2025 because that means we can still have the opportunity to collect more bitcoins from now until the recovery takes place later. We still have at least 3 more years to try to get more bitcoins and I'm sure if the price moves up and down more, we can profit. We can save profits in bitcoins until the recovery phase comes again and we will have a chance to sell at the next high price.

Now is the right time for us to collect as much bitcoin as possible, because with the current price correction of course we can get bitcoin at a fairly cheap price, we all know that bitcoin investment tends to be more profitable for anyone who dares to hold on for a long time, so as you said it doesn't matter if we have to wait until 2025 to see the bitcoin price recover, if indeed later it can give us a big advantage.

Yes, i agree with the first part that we need to collect as much bitcoin as possible but i may not agree that bitcoin may not recover until 2025. What if i say that bitcoin will reach another all time high before the next halving or before 2025 ?

Believe me. i am still hoping for the blow off top for bitcoin which may be over 100,000$ and that too in 2022.  :) There will be a bad bear market of 2 years after this event.

Bitcoin halving has and will always have some major influence on bitcoin price, but something brewing out of the space of bitcoin could actually break or build bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.... The external factor of this war and the sactions being applied could see bitcoin recovering and not taking the nose dive as predicted.

Bitcoin halving is no doubt will have biggest influence on Btc price increase.

We'll have to wait until all the economic sanctions for Russia is imposed and let's see If there is a significant effect on Bitcoin.
Some countries are denying transactions that's coming from Russian banks, and more countries are doing the same as a part of the sanction for their invasion in Ukraine.
I was thinking this could be na advantage for Bitcoin, especially for the Russian people who will be affected by this inconvenience.

I would say that it is the key factor to start the next bull run. Halving as we all know is a key event in bitcoin's history and so far we have seen it as catalyst to a massive spike in prices, reaching all time high. But for now, even though we are far cry from the last all time high, still the price is not that low to say that we are in a bearish market. The price seems to fluctuate and bouncing around $30k-$40k, which is still a good price in my opinion.

Volume is too low that means there isn't fresh money inflowing in crypto market. It seems we need another halving to get momentum in the market again. Banning Russia from swift could force them to use bitcoin for trade. If this happens then we could see momentum in the market again. But this is just a prediction so first we need to wait and see the geopolitical movement.

I would agree with you on the 2025 and before part, it will definitely recover before that. I believe that it will recover to 50k+ in 2022 without a doubt, that will certainly happen if you ask me. And in 2023 we are going to be 100k+ for sure, don't know if it will be January 2023, or December 2023 but I know that it will happen somewhere between those days.

However, the important thing is that we are doing fine right now with the bitcoin price being like this after all the horrible stuff and all the economies of the world being so harshly crashing. Look at every economy, not just Russia or Ukraine, but all the others, there is chaos everywhere and we need to just calm down and expect that bitcoin is not untouchable during this period as well.

i'm not so sure about the many bitcoin price predictions out there because each analyst is free to provide their research.  but if indeed the price of bitcoin will return e ath until 2025, that's not a problem for me, i will continue to hold the btc i have and even plan to buy more.  btc is a very valuable future investment and it's a shame if i miss it.

I think there is a possibility to this. Either of the fighting countries can decide to use bitcoin and that will push the price up. I read that Ukraine is asking for donation in btc but I don't know how that is true so far but with time it can happen if the fight continue but meanwhile even both countries trying to legalize bitcoin.

Made me smile as well LOL, Elon Effect  ;D

but Yeah i may get that point as Halving does not really bring big significant instead it is the Whales pumping the market .

At least the effect is there that 4 year cycle as the market had been into more expectation from what we had in the previous years .

We've seen the price going up to almost $40k after the banning of Russia from swift. But not sure if we have momentum to actually break the $40k barrier again.

As for the bitcoin's recovery, it's obvious for us who have been in the market for so long that we understand that there is a bull and bear cycle and it's every 4 years. So the next halving is 2024, so just maybe the next bull run might really happen around that time frame.

Du Jun merely based his analysis from Bitcoin’s halving, and its consistent bull-bear cycles. BUT, if based on that then how should we define “recovery”? Bitcoin is 10x from the last bear cycle’s lows, and priced more that last bull cycle’s highs. Plus if it won’t “recover” until 2025, THEN Bitcoin’s lowest point for the next bear cycle is 2023?

I hope you can be careful when buying bitcoin as the price could fall back to $37k. The price now goes up to $38k, but who knows if the price will fall again the next day. Only analyzing market movements can help us in deciding so as I said before, it's okay if the price can spike again in 2025.

It could happen and I'm sure that we would all be happy if another high could occur before the next half because it would mean we would have a chance to sell at the next high. I believe that and I also believe that bitcoin has a chance to rise beyond $100,000 and I still hope that it will happen this year. But that's just my request, although I don't know if it will happen this year or next year.

if we follow the history of the 4 year halving then it is very possible that the Bitcoin price will touch ATH again in 2025...

but now I see it's different, we can't use the halving history as a benchmark anymore because there's been a lot of good news that welcomes Bitcoin, and more than one country has regulated Bitcoin. I personally am not sure about the prediction of bitcoin coming back in 2025, I am sure this year we will see another bitcoin ATH.

As I am typing this, the price of bitcoin went over 43k+ which should be enough reason for people to realize it is not really that much of a big deal to be wrong about prices. I mean we are at 43k+ already and we are in a war and Russians will have to use crypto for a long time for every global need. I have to say that it is not really that much of a big deal as of right now, but it is certainly something that is decisively big, and the price should be going even higher.

Something like 50k+ could be reached within next week, and ATH could be achieved in somewhere around March if the situations persist on this same path. So, what OP is trying to convey may not remain true forever and bitcoin may recover to ATH and keep growing in coming days for sure.

I'm sure the price will recover soon. The fact today bitcoin is up more than 14% and this is a good sign that bitcoin is recovering soon, especially today's daily transaction volume is almost 2x than yesterday so I'm very sure April will reach $70k or new ATH. The mistake of many investors is to buy when it is expensive so I recommend buying immediately.

Does it need to “recover”? Because to recover requires that it should be “dead” before recovery. But zoom out, the current price still, and remains higher than the last ATHs of the bull cycles during 2013, and 2017. What needs recovery are those many shitcoins that other plebs like us still HODL.

Still looking great. Things bounced where they needed to. I'm lucky because I don't pay attention to the crypto twitter when they go completely panic mode. Regardless of all the rumors, this is why I have been confident and strong in the past. As for me, seeing bitcoin trading above 40k is more than enough to deal with a better life and I won't complain if it takes from down or higher. By the way, I'm holding and accumulating bitcoins.

You know?
I was lucky enough to have ventured to buy some bitcoin at a price of $37K some time ago, and now I have made a little profit because bitcoin today has experienced an increase in price of $43K, maybe I try to wait for the price to return to $45K and take short-term profits ;D.

People who have faith in the future of Bitcoin, definitely will not panic when they see the price of Bitcoin fall, they will remain patient holding
the Bitcoin they have and continue to collect Bitcoin. It is proven that now the price of Bitcoin has managed to rise above $40k, even the price of
Bitcoin is still rising and now Bitcoin is at a price of $44k. If the Bitcoin price manages to rise above the $45k price, there is a possibility that
the Bitcoin price will continue to touch the $50k price, so very lucky for people who managed to buy Bitcoin when the price was under $40k,
meaning they are already profiting now. With the rising price of Bitcoin, this gives the answer that Bitcoin to recover does not need to wait until 2025.

Expecting bitcoin to return to ATH soon is tough, but in particular bitcoin has always had cycles of recovery and correction to aggregate demand and today bitcoin proved the best it can represent and create conformance.  Bitcoin has made a very quick recovery today at $44k and is trying to build more momentum for consolidation on a breakout, any trend could be established again.
I guess 4 years is a long cycle for health and now is a consolidation period before a flip, I'm not sure it will be 2025 but we are building and representing more and more of it the future trend of the market

Quite honestly I'm surprised about the rapid recovery that we're seeing in the market, after all when we take into account all of the things that are happening around the world then it would have made sense for the price of bitcoin to remain low for a significant amount of time and despite all of that the price is showing a very strong recovery, which tell to us that there is still a chance that we could see a new all time high before the end of this year.

Very much agree with your explanation. If we are talking about the Bullrun cycle and BTC halving every 4 years, this year is the beginning of the bearish season. So, it is rather difficult to expect a market recovery this year or the next 2 years. When people expect crypto coins/tokens to achieve their ATHs again, on the contrary the prices are starting to drop gradually. It is not a proper time to expect Bullrun or uptrend anymore although a rebound/pump may happen at any time before the next dump. Yes, in theory, the right time to expect the recovery is in 2025.

But quite hard to be sure about what will happen because the adoption is different from previous halving cycles. The bearish and bullish runs may have different price levels now as we are not expecting it to go below $10k anymore (just an example). No one can also assure about this recovery in 2025. Because this year alone, we may experience another ATH for all we know. Because of what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, they may assist in btc adoption as people are looking for alternative ways to put their assets into safety without too much complications from their government. But such analysis is good so you can have a reference if people are really getting it right when it comes to speculations.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A3B3l.png

Good breakout and build from negative trend.   Positive so long as the chart keeps acting like this, this is an important build as we must hold the 43k area to confirm a break of range.   Erratic daily moves dont count as much as the more progressive gains and leaving the prior range will be a positive move.
  'Recover' is a false narrative to me, we in broader terms are consolidating which is important work; 100k wont appear without the structure and volume of prices put in below as we are doing now.

^^ I think when we did break out out of the $40k barrier, the price will be short term bullish and this is what we've seen so far, going as high as $45k although it didn't hold that much.

The good thing is that the volume speaks for itself, so definitely the next barrier to be broken is $45k and I think we can do it in the next 4 hour time frame.

The funny thing is, when this topic was created it was around 37k or so, went as low as under 35k just a day later, so everyone thought it was possible that it wouldn't recover quickly enough. Maybe not as later as 2025, but not right away. Today, only like 10 days later, we are over 44k already. People are underestimating the potential of crypto and I do not know why. It has been like this forever, it just goes up and down and keeps doing that for a very long time.

I know that some people are not aware of the current situation, but this is how we could make a profit, if we are always aware of the fact that crypto will always go up eventually. Markets could crash and bitcoin could crash with them for a while, but that will always change in the end.

I don't understand what you are trying to explain to me. We are discussing Bitcoin price changes or Bitcoin price cycles, there is nothing to do with Bitcoin adoption.  ???

Indeed. The price level may be different but the scheme is probably the same as previously. We know Bitcoin halving is one of the biggest factors to trigger Bullrun. And it has been proven several times, please check again the correlation between BTC halving and Bullrun (bullish) and Bearish. I don't say that the lowest Bitcoin price in the next Bearish will be the same as in 2018-2019, I only stated the cycle to return as in the previous ones.

There is no certainty in crypto market. BTC can surprise us at any time. But Looks like it will be difficult to reach a new ATH this year. Don't forget about the cycle of Halving/Bullrun/Bearish, we seem in the early of Bearish season.

People will always love to talk negatively when seeing the market in a declining position. To hear this wasn't new for me/us but we have also to consider the situation that history never repeats itself. Of course, the dump and pumps come always but those people thinking that the market will it looks like 3 years ago where we are in totally bearish, that is somewhat impossible.

Indeed. We can't underestimate the market nor expect much but we can't erase the reality that the market price went ON and OFF. And those who can't adopt the nature of the market, that obviously could piss them off.

The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

But we rely on past history to make our prediction and that's what the OP is trying to drive at. It's a 4 year cycle, the last bull run was 2021+4 = 2025.

I get your point though, it's because the market is changing and adapting to different circumstances, like bitcoin being a part of the balance sheet of companies now. Or even countries owning it as a reserve asset like gold. So we will see if pattern will continue or will a new cycle will emerge as bitcoin's narrative is evolving now.

It's actually expected that bitcoin should have entered bear market by now. 2025 is quite long as it recovers, a year or two would be sufficient for its recover.
But is there a need for recovery while it's setting itself for a better price while where it came from was actually low years ago? We've been having corrections even during the bull run last year and for this three months of 2022.

everyone is free to make their own predictions. if he thinks bitcoin will return to ATH in 2025 then I think bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2022. we see that until this march there were already 2 countries (Russia and Ukraine) and 1 more city (Lugano) that recognized Bitcoin as a currency. I don't predict the price following the halving history because it's already different.

they can predict whatever they wanted but the truth is? market like this is unpredictable and things may change in speed of light .

we have seen those many times before so why not will happen soon?

The thing is we must be ready always in something bad to happen , but of course be positive most of the times for this matter.

The biggest year for BTC came in 2017 and also sparked off in 2020 both following Dollar index declines.    So perhaps its best to note that index when expecting any larger gain, my take for 2025 will be revision and consolidation but lets look at the Index strength recently:
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A3c09.png

This is a fiat measure which means if all government current declines in worth by 50% then nothing will alter on this chart as its only in ratio to each other.   It does give us an idea of how biased the world is to the most central money which is dollars.    We have almost a full swing back to Dollar pre dilution by the flu QE programs, that makes this a low tide mark for BTC I think, when we dollar much lower it will help recovery.   As its macro economics it might take till 2025

I would assume that the market could repeat the 2018 this year if it is the cycle, in that case we are already down to a lower price, back in the day bitcoin went from 20k to 6k levels and now from 68k to under 40k levels as well. But, with the same logic we should be 50k+ next year, and then 70k+ year after that and 500k+ the year after that.

Do you really believe that x10+ increases could still happen in a single year? I am not saying it can't happen, but maybe things are different since we are at a higher price. Doesn't mean that it can't be moving from 70k to 500k+ in a single year but I feel like we may have to reel in our predictions.

And then just a few days later and the price is once again below the 40000 level, it seems to me that the current market conditions which are incredibly unstable are going to last for a long time, investors are very nervous, on one hand as soon as the price drops below the 40000 mark they want to buy bitcoin as it is not clear for how long the price will remain there, but because of the war they do not want to make a long term commitment so they sell their coins as soon as there is any indication that a price decrease could be in order.

I believe in history repeating itself and that's likely to happen in the market, but the market is sentiment-based it could turn this from bad to worse, from good to great, depending on what's happening around us like the pandemic and the ongoing war, right now we are looking on the impact of Ukraine - Russian war in a long term it could become or negative depending on the outcome of the war if it drags on it may have a bad impact.

And with the evolving reasons why many people are going into crypto.
We can't assure that it will repeat its history or deviate from it.
The growth in crypto market is different in the past years, so making a reference of the previous years may not be valid anymore.
We will see if the speculations are right or wrong in the succeeding years. Will it follow its history or not?

If what they other replies here is right about the market situation in the future then we must be wary if Bitcoin isn't going to pump anymore due to the manipulation. But we still have Bitcoin halving so it's still possible that the price would pump more though it would take some time then since they previous trend isn't working or is being manipulated.

And yes, the market is always unpredictable and what these experts been saying might not be true somehow or at least just for a period of time. Though they weren't close to telling what they were predicted so it's more like a small bluff to create FUD.

The data is fairly young, so as of now, we can only say that there is indeed a 4 year cycle as explain by @LFC_Bitcoin (who has been in the game for so long, so we must follow his wisdom  ;D).

So might be better for us to prepare for a bear market in the next two years, might some gloom, but base on my experience it was really hard to be in a bear market, but we did survived it already so we should get some experience already on how to deal with it.

Still liking what LFC said early on here. Patterns do not often repeat, but they do rhyme.

I can't see the return of the supercycle. We have already crossed the time period needed for that to happen again I think. Well over a year since the rally, ATH that was relatively underwhelming (for a supercycle), volumes as well.

But that doesn't mean another slow burn rally circa 2025 is a bad thing. Probably suits me much more really.

We still have at least three years to attempt to gain additional bitcoins, and I'm confident that if the market continues to fluctuate, we'll be able to benefit. We can keep our winnings in bitcoins until the next recovery period, when we will be able to sell at a higher price.

i have no problem for bitcoin nit recovering till 2025 but at least wont fall down below 20k , that is more than best for me.

but considering this may come? well i will consider buying more and paused from trading for a while.
that would be 3 years time from now and many things may happen across the line.

i will be forever grateful for bitcoin so the stagnant price will never be a problem for me.

From some of the speculation that I have seen, Bitcoin will recover in 2024, 2025 something is going on like now where people will see Bitcoin plunge again.

We always take lessons from time to time, where the halving occurs every four years, whether it can be stated as a lesson Bitcoin will recover in 2024.

Bitcoin isn't at a point where the whole market is panicking, I think that we shouldn't worry about it going down anytime soon or even the recovery of it, bitcoin is still at 30k+ so I don't get why should worry about the recovery of it and we all know that when bitcoin pumps, those who wait the longest will be the one's that gets the most reward, that is if you're a hodler and not just an observer.

It's hard to say for sure when bitcoin will recover, in my opinion it's not impossible that bitcoin will recover faster than what many people predict now, but it's also possible if bitcoin takes a long time to recover, sooner or later the recovery that occurs in bitcoin of course it all depends on the sentiment that occurs in the market, but I personally don't really think about when bitcoin will recover, because in my opinion the rise or fall of bitcoin prices in the market, of course, we can use to make a profit in market.

I would say that is not really "gone". I mean you could end up making some profit even during this period, but that doesn't change that you could put all your money and income into crypto as much as you can afford to lose and then hope for the best.

I mean I do it, and so far it has worked out very well. If you start doing that during the bottom times like these days, and you keep doing that for few years and live the biggest bulls then you will end up with insane profits. A friend of mine started a bit before the 2017 ATH run, and he made a good return but lost it all when the price crashed, he kept going for YEARS, and eventually in 2021 he was very rich. That means you could still do the long term game.

History doesn't always repeat itself but we know that it is possible. If you believe that halving can affect bitcoin price to reach ATH then now we have to raise more money to invest in bitcoin. Agree with the LFC_bitcoin assumption in the main page post, it keeps on rhyming but doesn't always repeat itself.

To be honest I had my doubts about ATH post-bitcoin halving before, but ATH is really happening and bitcoin has hit ATH several times throughout 2021. If so, then it will be a downturn this year and the years to come. So we have to take advantage of something to invest.

Being able to predict an upcoming bull run accurately will be quite rare, I suppose. The price of Bitcoin may fall to $30K before turning into a bull market, according to some analysts. Hodlers have another Monday to look forward to after the major cryptocurrencies had a rough weekend. Do you expect things to improve this week? As usual, but we have to pay attention to a lot of activities going on around us.

There are only two possibilities about bitcoin, not recovering until the next halving or maybe hitting another ATH before 2025 and that is the dynamic that has always been with bitcoin. Currently the downward trend has been going on since November 2021 and bitcoin has lost its price by as much as $31K and it is close to 50% of its previous ATH.

I believe in the huge potential of bitcoin over the long term, and that's the reason why investing in it is a good thing in my opinion. Bitcoin will not always be in a downtrend and vice versa. We have been in an uptrend throughout 2021 and may now have entered a downtrend until the end of the year. Things can change so quickly, and I think we shouldn't really care about volatility if long-term gains are the target.

Bitcoin will always break its last ATH(in which the recent is 68,000$) but of course this will take time and mostly this happens after 4 years (As what i remember and witnessed when the Bull happened last 2017 and again at 2021) so basically OP is correct here but of course may not.
lets hope that the dumping will only settle at 30k level and will not drop down to  below 20k once again like in 2018.

That's called a drawback. Whenever price goes under a certain level, there are people who think that "this is enough" and buy at those levels, because they believe that it is cheap enough. Doesn't mean that they are right or wrong, it just sometimes happens and sometimes fails. I personally believe that the current situation could be like a drawback.

If nothing else, we are having a bit of a troubled period because of the war and it means that when the war ends, and when the sanctions are lifted, when the world goes back to how it was with all prices are returning to normal levels, we are going to live a period where money will be very valuable and we will be able to live a better life with it.