Bitcoin Forum

It's Over

Graphic card stores are now panicking because many GPUs are flooding the market and they feel at loss because no one is buying them and the old GPUs they have in stores can't be sold at high price like before, I pity them though since they bought them out the country and can't sell, no one is willing to buy right now in my country, it is what it is.

Hooray!

Time to load up on GPUs since you are guaranteed 6 months of mining before ETH PoS, if it happens this year. I don't think the cards will drop more in value over 6 months than the profit you'll make.

The only ones I'm seeing in stock for MSRP are the low hashrate models, which I wouldn't want to buy anyway.  Are you seeing Founders Editions for MSRP somewhere?  I'd love to hear where because I could stand to pick up a few more GPUs.  Although, I may wait a couple of months to see if there's an official release date for the 4xxx series cards from Nvidia.  That would also mean avoiding the summer heat and loading up for winter, which is always my preference.  I'm still mining with 1080ti's and VII's so I may just wait for the 4xxx series, but if I were seeing 3080s or 3090s for MSRP that could do their full hashrate, it would be a decision I had to make.

They're going to be bought up by all the 12-year-old Fortnite kids, so prices will stay high. They will be inefficient per Mh. RTX 3000 series prices should not drop by more than 10%.

I still don't think it will make a big difference compared to if miners are buying GPUs for mining, now that consoles like PS5 and Series S/X are as powerful as gaming PC people are buying these consoles to replace gaming in PC because they are cheaper and yet they have high powers, GPU market is going to suck so much very soon.

Price comeback to MSRP not mean it over.

when ETH price drop below 1000 and new GPU on market everyone sell old gpu in very low price that time you can say it over.

Good Thing I never added new cards that are sold by higher than MSRP, it was the best decision I have made so far in terms of mining eth. Both my cards a few years back at low price and after 6 month it went to an overpriced which I had to stop buying. That is why recently I have posted on FB that my old cards is for sale and no one was interested, maybe they are waiting for this moment. I visit stores 3 time a months to check the price and wanna grab that 3090 if it will flood the market.

People are not buying because they know the 4xxx or next amd gpus will use 50% or more less watts, so the current generation of gpus in the market will keep going down in price because of that and many other factors like little profit at moment is not worth and Intel is soon entering the gpu market too, even though the mafia are still trying to keep the prices up, so idiots can overpay for the mafia gpus, do not be a sheep, do not buy gpus now.

if 4xxx is just 3xxx refresh(like 2xxx to 1xxx)..it will be hilarious.

They've already said RTX 4090 will offer a generational performance leap over the company’s current flagship GPU, the RTX 3090

Even if it is just a refresh, it seems it will be a 4nm, https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ada-lovelace-gpus-4n-process-node-advantage-over-5nm-amd-rdna-3/, current 3xxx is on 8nm. I would stay away from any 7nm or 8nm gpus and even the intels gpus, as far as I know intel gpus will be on 6nm, now more than ever no point buying gpus for mining, not even for speculation or gambling.

evga 3090 ftw3 at 1699 vs 2069

if you get them direct from evga.com i have a 3% code.

the VRAMs are still gddr6x, GPU mining is mostly VRAM mining.

if they claim it is 50% improvement, maybe for the core, but for mining 15-20% improvement is not so enticing. 20% is a huge leap for the same VRAM tech..maybe it is 10% or less (refresh) hehe.

on the other hand models with 4nm means cooler core, core and VRAMs are on the same board..these might mine cooler, other than that, it might not be worth it.

Exactly. According to TPU (https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/arc-7-a780.c3910), the top-end Arc 7 A780 model will have 560 GB/s of memory bandwidth for 200 watts. That is only 10-20% better than the RTX 3070, while the TFLOPs are 10% lower and it has the same wattage per TFLOP. So the ARC 780 should be comparable in price to a RTX 3070 or RX 6800 to gamers and miners alike.

The rumor mill seems to suggest that the lower-end Intel ARC cards will be available first, then the high end ones will follow. So I'm not bearish on video cards that are in the 3070 range or higher. Since prices have already fallen a lot since December, I expect a 10% decline at worst (if ETH price stays stagnant). The cards that would fall in price are the lower-end ones that gamers are desperate for. So don't buy current low-end cards! I stopped buying RTX 3060's.

As for Neeveeeedia's RTX 4000, it will take a long time to be launched. ETH PoS is a bigger concern than that. Even when Lovelace does arrive, it only offers 10% more VRAM bandwidth than the RTX 3080 12GB. So it will be uneconomical for mining regardless of the node or compute efficiency, even if you can get it down to 300w.

What about the AyyMD Rayydeon RX 7000 series? Same deal as the RTX 4090. Also AMD, being a smaller company, can only ship so much volume. So it shouldn't materially affect the market.

Here's my board view of the 2022 market

https://files.catbox.moe/heu3jf.png

The new gen will have similar ETH hashrates as the old gen, but will be a lot more expensive because gamers care about TFLOPs. The only mining use case for them will be core-intensive algos like ProgPoW, FIRO or KawPow.

I bought two graphic cards over MSRP, they are RTX 3070Ti and 3060ti, now I know I fucked up buying these cards for a high price, I am just a bit over 50% of my ROI which isn't a nice move at all, as for all other graphic cards I own I bought at used, this is the best decision I've ever made.

Memory wise will be the same, dont think we will have any improvements on memory nm reduction, core wise will have a huge reduction in power consumption.

We have already seen this situation in the market. When there is an official announcement from Ethereum developers about the start of Pos mining, many video cards will go to the secondary market. This will be a good time to upgrade your old graphics cards.

When did flooding the market== MSRP?
Right now you are getting MSRP but what a lot.of us want is true deals. I remember a few years back getting 3 480s and a 1070 water cooled for $300 TOTAL.
Those are flooding the market days.

Even though we are still 20-30% over MSRP these days, I don't think right now is a bad time to buy GPUs, considering the < 350-day payback time on most models. Just be prepared to sell them in a few months if you think you can time PoS correctly.

That's what leaked specifications of the new generation indicate so far. I don't think the compute efficiency increase will lower ETH power consumption by much. For nVidia's current RTX 3080/3090 series, the power-hungry GRRD6X VRAM eats up a big share of the overall board TDP. That is the part that won't improve by much.

MSRP Price is too high

As the market was starting to show some life in summer and fall 2020. I grabbed some nice msi 5600 xt gaming at 230 each.

so 230 usd for 38mh at 95 watts at the wall.

everyone works as i type and i can sell them used for 400 on ebay.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/325089409290?

he wants 459 so 399 is good.
maybe 379.

so how is the market flooded or dead.

nothing to see here mine on.

oh 4000 series will all be lhr (you heard it here first)

and eth will not go to pos unless eth drops under 1k

they will do pos to ‘save the market’


far better than doing pos  at 3000 a coin and watching it drop to 900

than pos crashed everything.

Honestly there are a few reasons.

First one is that since ETH POS is more or less confirmed sometime later this year… many just find it too risky due to the long ROI period.

Second is that there are new gen video cards being released soon so people are waiting for those.

Third is inflation and recession risk. People are saving their money for the worst to come due to the way the economy is going.

Miners who are waiting for next-gen cards will be disappointed. But you're right about the newer cards being very useful to gamers because of the high TFLOPs. So if gamers currently are 60% of the buyers of the market and they're waiting, that would drive prices down.

I disagree, because the type of people who are interested in GPU mining tend to be either college kids who spend mommy's money or upper-class technology workers. These folks aren't affected by inflation. If a recession happens, they need to worry about the value of their real estate or stock shares going down more than their mining rigs. Cryptocurrency may be an inflation hedge.

GPU MRSP RTX 3000 and RX6000
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5351711.0
Most miners bought their graphics cards for more than MSRP, so prices in the secondary market can be worse than in stores. In my country, a new video card can be found cheaper than they sell in secondary markets. First, study the prices in stores and discounts.

Whilst for me, I'm always happy to grab an upgrade.

I know the sentiment is for the small retailers that will be hit. But there are still many tokens out there that rely on GPU mining like Raven - personally i'm BTC focused, but cheap GPUs might just push the price up of some other alts.

"waiting" is one of the most stupid thing you'll hear about mining. (happened with the 3090s and 3080's before the bull run LOL...waiting for the market to go bull and then paid almost double MSRP  ;D , if you can't mine in a non bull market then there is a huge chance you won't last long here)

ROI'd cards is still better than the latest and greatest/biggest and baddest that "will be" released...fast forward to the future--that great card is released then buy it, and you still have the ROI'd cards you bought in the past.(or in worse scenario the cards are still about to get ROI'd, but it is on its way.)

if you can make money now, do it now. it is that simple.

worry about selling/upgrading when heat and space is maxed out, if you are "maxed out" already then you are in the "optimizing stage" of mining, things change a bit..but profit and ROI first above all else.

once your cards are paid off just mine. and mine and mine and mine and mine.

I don't understand why this is a good idea. If you think the market will crash at a certain time, why not sell the cards right before that, then bet on buying them back later at a much lower price? Even after the inconvenience & fees of selling as well as the missed profit, it could make sense. You would end up with more hashrate for the same price, if your goal is to stack coins at low diff.

When miners bring up the idea of "ROI'd video cards", it sounds like the classic sunk cost fallacy to me.

Let's consider the RTX 3060's that I bought last month for $550 each. As of today, I lost money on that investment because the same card now costs $440, and I only made $50 of mining profit in the meantime. I would be an idiot to tell myself I didn't lose $60 so far.

Back in 2019 I bought GTX 1060 cards for $140 each, then made $400 of profit on each card by April 2021. I "made ROI" many times over on the investment. However, I was worried that ETH price was going to peak, so I sold off the rig for $350 per card in May. I turned out to be wrong. But if I were correct and the value crashed back to $140/card, there's no way I could have made $210 of profit beforehand.

Of course, if one thinks it's impossible to time the market, then I agree that buying/selling cards is a bad idea. But I don't think the GPU market is an efficient market like the stock exchange.

Hehe I still buy some new babies  (graphics card) today, I believe that when all hope is lost is the perfect time to take action, I want me some Gigahash, that's a dream and I am sticking to it, Crypto mining is a hubby and that's what keeps me going, I don't care if ETH goes POS or if profitability drop marginal, im never going to shut down my rigs by the power of God invested in me  ;D ;D, keep mining or go home.

I hope you're right, because I just grabbed a few RX 6800's at the incredible price of $570 below MSRP!!. I hope it turns out better than my RTX 3060 or P100 rigs.

Too much work and we know is not easy to sell the price you want, negotiations take time for both parties, buy and sell coins is easy, buy and sell gpus is hard as they are physical.

I have liquidated a farm with dozens of rigs before. While it's hard, it's not impossible if you're just disconnecting the video cards and leaving the rig alone. There were enough bulk buyers to go around even in late 2018, just at the right price. The average buyer bought 5-10 cards at a time, which made it easier to negotiate.

I absolutely think it was worth the effort to sell a few rigs for $200/card in June 2018 instead of watching them fall to $90/card by next year. That was the only reason I was able to buy a cheap right the next year, collect a bunch of coins and cash out later.

For the vast majority is very hard, so they tend to stay with the gpus and go on till they break or so. If you are able to do that fast and without much work, yes, it is a win. It also depends where you are mining, the demand for gpus and so on, reason 14nm gpus to this date were the best in that window of opportunity, it took a long time for them to be replaced with something better.

If you are debt free and there is a huge crash you can hodl the gear. Wait for it to bounce back.

Back in spring/summer/fall 2020 eth began a rebound.

All the 1000 series cards went back up to msrp by Jan 2021 . I sold 1080ti at 2018 prices of 660-700

As long as you are not overextended in debt mining and mining and mining and mining is better than selling when you think you should sell.

I had 65 1080s sold some but mostly mined them in 2018 2019 2020 even when prices sucked.

in 2019 my 1080tis earned 25 cents a day and i mined them.

In fact I still mine four 1080ti my evga hybrid. they do 140 mh

Who says that no one is buying graphic cards anymore? I bookmarked some graphic cards online hoping the price will down but checking them out today I realised they are sold out, don't fool yourself thinking that people aren't buying graphic cards, you are not the only one who have come to understand how mining works.

The data shows that less people are buying RTX 3070's for example:

https://files.catbox.moe/ve94uw.png


I see the same pattern for the other cards. But as you can see, the number sold increases within 1-2 days after prices drop. After sales volume is good enough and cards can be sold quickly enough to satisfy sellers, or ETH price rises, sellers start to jack up prices. Buyers then react by purchasing less. The cycle starts over again.

This is why I've been predicting that GPU prices will stay steady for the next 1-2 months.

look at this card.

https://www.newegg.com/msi-geforce-rtx-3090-rtx-3090-gaming-x-trio-24g/p/N82E16814137595?Item=N82E16814137595

you can buy up to 20

so buy 16 and use  2 of these cases

https://minerdude.com/product/minerdude-x8ultra-plus/


cost 16 x 1659 = 26544
and 2 x 999 =.      1998

grand total = 28542

16 x 110 hash = 1.76gh

power = 5000 watts

that is  120 kwatts a day = 12 bucks at 10 cent power

1760 x 3.67 cents  = 64.59 a day

so 64-12 = 52 a day net

9464 in 6 months
18928 in 12 months
28392 in 18 months

cards have real 3 year warranties

So buy it and mine it.

or don't

I know this is not the economics or speculation section but crypto currencies are not a inflation hedge. It seems like it should be however crypto currencies and Bitcoin especially are correlated with the stock market. Especially the nasdaq index.

Plot a chart of Bitcoin and nasdaq side by side and you will see they follow each other very closely. So since inflation is up, the interest rates will rise, which will cause stocks to fall and crypto will follow.

It basically is considered a risk on asset.

For now it is. But it won't be down the road.

Below MSRP already? I am still looking for such deals online and can't find, they are always out of stock even if I am lucky to find one, aliexpress failed to pull those ads down once they are sold out, arrgghh, where are you ordering yours from?.

I happened to get very lucky with a feeBay search where somebody listed their RX 6800's for $600 + free shipping because they wanted to get rid of them quickly. I activated the 5% eBay Bucks promotion on that day, as well as a 3% credit card bonus. So the price before sales tax turned out to be $552, while MSRP is $579.

You can buy up to 20 RTX 3060's (MSI Ventus 2X) on Newegg now for $390 per card.

Excluding the latest generation gpu, i.e. the 4xxx that passionate gamers will buy at exorbitant prices, no miner will buy cards at the current time in the uncertainty of the date of transition of eth from pow to pos and perhaps the medium-power and not recent gpus will return as before at decent prices

You'd be surprised... Some people don't actually believe the ETH 2.0 date and are still buying cards. I'm personally waiting to see what intel brings to the table along with the 4XXX series. Might consider buying then, but I also think they will be scalped.

Intel's higher-end cards have been delayed according to AIB's. They will only ship in volume in Q3. Not that they will be good for mining due to the poor memory bandwidth. Same for the next-gen AMD and nVidia chips, which will also have poor VRAM performance for mining.

I think these companies finally figured out that limiting memory bus width is better for discouraging miners than LHR. The other problem is NV might have 'LHR 2.0' which is harder to unlock. Currently, mining software fools LHR protection by running a dummy process on the GPU cores at the same time as ETH. It's possible NV engineers might patch this trick.

I certainly believe that the earliest ETH 2.0 is launched is September. It'll probably take December. If ETH price goes up, I think it's less likely the devs will want to take the risk.

I'm buying cards today because even if the value goes down by 20-25% by September, I'm betting the mining profit from those cards will more than compensate for the depreciation assuming ETH price stays constant w/ 3% monthly diff growth.

Free shipping is something I don't get when buying graphic cards 😭, where the heck are you people getting all this free shipping offers? The shipping fee is what turned me off when buying graphic cards, I always spend a lot on shipping fee which is scary, you can only get a fair deal if you are buying up to 8-10 GPUs at once.

I can see some of their reasoning was PoS is something bad, that it will drive down the ETH price and will be sort of 'last resort' for devs. I really don't think so. The thing is, PoW ain't really the main drive for ETH's anymore since the trend of green and saving energy, reduces the CO2 emission. Worst, with energy cost going so high around the global, especially in European with heating problems, depending on Russia's natural gas, etc. A lot of people start to see PoW as an outdated model. Also getting ires from gamers, driving the price of GPU up which in need in the auto-driving car industry or automation systems.

Looks at the CMC and see how many coins in the #10 or even #20 were mineable PoW? "Why the fk those coins didn't have our glorious PoW system but still at the top, driving the price on their own?" you ask. It was because PoW isn't important as it used to be, only the two behemoths are BTC and ETH which thanks to them was the OG. ETH 2.0 will go on track and isn't a bad thing. What we have now is Q3/Q4 for the merge and maybe another quarter for PoS official at the block. So around 8 months +-3 and this is applying pressure on the graphics card market. Not to mention the intel jump into making the graphics card, shipping at Q3 this year, new series of graphics cards from AMD and nvidia, AV1 support hardware,... I can only see the pressure for the graphics cards to drive the price down, not the other way around.

Ever since asics came on board everyone has said gpu mining is dead lol.  There will be others that come on board and keep gpus usable in crypto, then gaming is huge so these stores won't get stuck with gpus, they will always be needed and sell.

The medium power cards will only work for people with really cheap electricity,mostly in Europe the price of energy is on a constant increase because of the war in Ukraine which has hyper inflated the prices.It would be difficult for such cards to offer good returns for miners who will buy them.The difficulty of Eth is not decreasing it is staying constant in the best case despite the price of Ethereum falling so I don't see any valid point to buy those cards unless you have really cheap electricity.

Even at a 7¢ power rate and video cards available at half of MSRP, it will take 3+ years to reach payback if no other GPU coin saves the day. We would be stuck earning $0.40-0.50/day of profit on a $450 video card (including system parts). That is a 20-40% return per year, which isn't bad and is probably better than ASIC mining, but is nowhere near the 100-300% return we have seen over the past 5 years. The trend seems to be PoS coins getting the highest valuations these days. I expect PoW GPU coins to stagnate in market cap ranking, which means profit will stagnate. RVN/FLUX/etc. will probably keep throwing off ASICs, not that ASIC companies will even want to make them in a bear market.

Would I be happy with a 20-40% return? Yes, because there's the chance that a PoW coin can become big again and I could get a 200-500% return; just like I did in 2019-2021 with a GTX 1060 rig. No other investment is as good for me.

I don't have high hopes for 4xxx

1080ti gddr5x
2080ti gddr6
3xxx lower tier gddr6
3xxx higher tier gddr6x

now..
4xxx gddr6x for higher tier..

AMD HBM2 should take the cake.

peak bear market should be at least 5-6 years ROI (3 years is still doable, RMA is 3 years), miners will see no point in owning these pieces of "trash money printers" LOL

at 5-6 years your card is not RMA-able and you haven't ROI'd yet..LMAO! --->peak bear market, peak pain.

then after a few monthly "green candles" it is back to 3 year ROI and then 1 year ROI..then retards panic buys the shit out of GPUs again hehe.

here is my take.

you would not want to have "no GPU farm" when the next..

1. big thing
2. pump and dump
3. bull run

...happens.

For those who are undecided, here is my 2cents.
Hodl your cards inho, there are plenty of other GPU PoW projects that push out new updates and have a strong community backing it.

Also, if you didn't sell it a couple months ago, I suggest to overclock the cards you have now and try to ROI most of it before the merge.
But if your promo ends soon, you know the "no interested for a X amount of months" credit card, your choice becomes more obvious.

Lol I still want me some 580s graphic cards with 8GB memory, till date people are still buying this gpu for mining ETH and its been like 6 years already that this card have been here, oh I remember 2016/2017 a rx580 was on of the best for crypto mining at the time, anyway I believe something new will come up, its only a matter of time.

I will never buy video cards that old or that inefficient, regardless of the price. RX 5700 / RTX 2070 is the lowest I will go in efficiency. My RX 400/500 cards earned a lot of money back in the day, but it's time to move on.

It is debatable whether or not there will be a 'next big GPU coin' after ETH. If not, then the return is 20-40% per year provided you bought the cards for half of MSRP. If there is, then people who built GPU farms during the bear market for $400 per RTX 3080 will sell that RTX 3080 for $1000+, not to mention 300-600% ROI on the coins they mined at low diff and saved up. On top of that, they will make 100-300% ROI during the gold rush. So in total, that could be 5-10x your money back over 3-5 years.

That is why I'm happy to invest $100k+ in a warehouse GPU farm again when the time comes.

Yes, they are but do you see how big the ETH's network hashrate has become? It's impossible for all 1.03 PH/s ETH's network hashrate transferable to other GPU PoW out there as I speak. I mean this is already a well-known fact for any miners when we talk about the ETH 2.0 PoS if it goes live. For comparison, ETC pulls 24.54 TH/s right now and that is roughly only 2.4% of ETH's network hashrate. If any other GPU PoW out here is better than that, able to increase its price to match with the number of ETH's miners when they start the migration then I'd rather buy and hold that coin instead of mining it.

I understand the very real concern but in times when there was basically nothing to mine in 2015 and gpu mining is dead was a very real thought it obviously overcame that and I think we will see that same issue be overcome if/when eth migrates.  Will older less powerful gpus become obsolete maybe and they will drop off but saying gpu mining is over is not looking past the dust cloud.

People like me are buying graphic cards not because we believe that ETH merge isn't going to happen, we keep buying because we believe that another coin will take ETH's place and become profitable like ETH, also there are many PoW algorithm coins apart from ETH that I can mine.

It won't play out this way again it never does

HBM2 is worth for mining?

I mean HBM2e

typo, forgot the "e"

https://www.kitguru.net/components/graphic-cards/joao-silva/micron-reveals-hbmnext-planned-to-release-in-2022/ (https://www.kitguru.net/components/graphic-cards/joao-silva/micron-reveals-hbmnext-planned-to-release-in-2022/)

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/cmp-170hx.c3830 (https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/cmp-170hx.c3830)  -->    no display output and outrageous price  

amd might release one with display output..

...aaand already have one, also outrageous price and no display port too LOL  https://optocrypto.com/amd-instinct-mi210-is-listed-in-japan-for-16000-usd/ (https://optocrypto.com/amd-instinct-mi210-is-listed-in-japan-for-16000-usd/)

Any variant of HBM should absolutely have good ETH hashrate as well as decent hashrate on other memory-intensive coins like CFX, ERG or FLUX, as long as the bus width is wide enough. The core will have more than enough TFLOPs to not cause a bottleneck.

I see a very expensive price and I don't see mining tests. I think that for this price I will build a mining farm with a higher hashrate and I will have a 3 year warranty from the seller.
Tesla video cards also have excellent characteristics, but miners do not buy them because of the impossibility to recoup the investment.

ETH to 10k aaaaaaaaaaaaand you'll buy those expensive cards LOL..market fucks both ways hehe

or

it is a boring bear market with those boring 4xxx series (like the 2xxx series with the previous bear market), then 5xxx then bull run.