Bitcoin Forum

137,000 BTC worth roughly $2.8 billion will soon be released into the market as funds lost to the Mt. Gox hack of 2011 and subsequent loss of 850,000 BTC worth around $17.8 billion at today’s price. In 2014 Mt. Gox reported that it had found 200,000 BTC, but those coins have been locked in litigation until now.

https://news.coincu.com/108363-mt-gox-to-disburse-150k-btc-is-approaching/

Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price? Or is it another FUD in attempt to dump the price of BTC?

According to coincu.com:

"...many creditors have already sold their claims to crypto funds. Groups such as Fortress Investment Group LLC offered creditors an early payout of between $600 and $1,300 in cash.

Moreover, creditors who do not want to pay early may not want to liquidate their Bitcoin because they want to store long-term BTC. Many of those who plan to receive payment with Bitcoin are likely to store BTC rather than selling it when Bitcoin has decreased by more than 60%. Others invest in altcoins like Ethereum."

I am going to go with probably not much. Some people will sell because they need to get fiat for whatever reason. But, I think most others that have been waiting years are going to wait for the next bull run. At which point 200000 coins although a large number is not going to matter much as they are not all going to be dumped at once. And even a few hundred or a few thousand being put into the open market over a few days is not that big a deal IMO.

As for the people who bought out peoples claims for very little. They are the ones who are going to sit on the coins till well into the next big bull run since they are in it for the money.

Obviously, this is all just what I think, could be totally wrong.

-Dave

Yeah it dropped sharply but let's not forget that the Mt. Gox incident was like 2014 and the price back then was just around $500-$600 per bitcoin. The current price isn't going to be much of a factor because they are clearly still in a good place if they decide to sell once they got their share.

As to the effect on the market, it might cause another dive to $18K level (could be lower) but it will be absorbed like any other sell offs.

Nobody can predict that with certainty. It will depend on how many people need money now and how many can afford to hold knowing that bitcoin is down 70% from its high.
Those who had btc for trading in 2013 and wanted to make fiat as soon as possible will probably sell. Those who despite losing money on Gox bought back in and remained in the space will probably hold or at least hold some of it.

The bitcoin lost means the coin value is distributed on other remaining coins in circulation, this makes the remaining coin in circulation to have more value as the supply in circulation reduced as the lower the supply the higher the price. If coins that has been abandoned for years is introduced back into circulation, this may affect the price of bitcoin as the supply in circulation increases as dormant coin in the past is released into circulation as they distribute it for people. But the question should be 'is 137000 BTC large enough to cause price decrease'? I think it is not significant enough to cause significant effect on bitcoin price.

on the weigh of averages

the price at the MTGox close was in the $100-$1200 range for the couple years prior to close.. lets call it an even $400 for pencil math(not everyone bought at the same time)

imagine it was for easy pencil math.. 850k customers with 1btc each
well they aint all getting 1btc each back... they are getting (pencil math scenario) a 6th of their account balance

which is on average 0.16117647
which at todays price is still $3k

so still profit in the end. so selling is still profit

the only thing that matters is that its not a case where the coins are going to need to be sold by court order of settlement in one shot/one order to fulful a court ordered fiat amount settlement

by releasing the fund AS COINS. it atleast wont be a full 137k sell off in one shot. one sell order.
instead it can be sporadic and long term selling off chunks by old whales with more then a few coins.

though with all that said.
selling at the bottom of todays market is stupid.
they are in profit and some may just want out and forget about crypto there will be some sell off.
and some that may just hold

and now have fun speculating.. because no one knows what all the people will choose.

..
if i personally had coins in at the time. and a meaningful amount. i would have years ago wrote them off as a loss and forgot about them so it wont consume my life/stress levels.
then if getting a letter saying im getting a 6th of my balance mid summer. id choose to hoard. i wouldnt sell at this low market price even if they are in profit.
(but then again i actually do have my own hoard from 2012era, at super profit which i kept in my own private key where im not ready to sell)
though i do expect others to just want to sell up and move on if they totally removed themselves from crypto years ago

I'd guess that a "safe bet" would be that about half of the people will sell. The problem is that probably that doesn't mean half of the funds, so still no clue.

---

On the other hand, is the repayment date set in stone? I mean that news about imminent repayment and/or imminent sell off of MtGox funds keep popping out every few months. I know that it's bound to happen sooner or later, but.. when is that? I think that even those who will handle the repayment know that it looks much better if that average 0.16BTC means $20k than $3k...

other things to consider.
imagine there were 100k customers..
all getting a split of the funds

its not going to be a single TX of 100k outputs
its going to be separate transactions over hours/days.
because the auditors will need to make a batch TX of X customers.
wait for the confirm. and triple check things as the funds go out per batch

its not a push button and forget thing for litigators/courts and auditors to do

so dont expect it all to release in one shot. and then dont expect all receivers to unanimously or even 50% of them to collectively decide to sell at the exact same moment.

with some exchanges only doing a couple hundred btc volume a day.. even if it was 10% of the stash being sold (13k) in one day. it can affect the prices

It is difficult to predict what will happen in this case, it is more likely that those who need money will sell their bitcoins as soon as they receive them. Those who don't need cash urgently may not be in a hurry to sell bitcoin because they already know that bitcoin is in a bear market and has lost more than 60% of its value against ATH. They have waited almost 8 years to get their bitcoin back and they may be willing to wait a little longer to be able to sell bitcoins at the best price they expect.

Yes I think it will have some affect on the bitcoin and crypto markets in general. I remember when certain companies were buying up peoples claims on their bitcoins back in 2015-2016 or so. However I am pretty sure it wasn't for $1200 per bitcoin they had missing I think it was more like $100-$200.

They started buying them when bitcoin was in the 3 figures and they didn't pay market value. I think it was maybe 50% of what it was worth. So if bitcoin was $1000, the max they offered was $500 or so. There is no way they would offer 100% because there is no risk/reward there.

These companies most likely have huge profits as a result and they will sell some of these coins to make their quarter results look good for investors. I think it will have a negative effect.

From the article:


Ok, I understand the don't buy now thing, he thinks the market will crash, but then why not trade futures if you think this is how it's going to end? If you're unsure about the outcome then why clearly focus on one way the price going. The last one, hold stablecoin! Because yeah, holding some UST or holding some tether in time of a crash is the best idea, it worked marvelously in the past so it will do now too, especially since they now claim it's backed by some non-us bonds, and guess what, other cryptos.

Anyhow, I don't know where did he get the date of August as the start of payments:
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20220706_announcement_en.pdf

In the letter, there is only one August mentioned, and it's not about the payments but something completely else

Ok.
If the former users of Mt.Gox don't receive compensation in August, then this month there should not be strong fluctuations in bitcoin price. But someday they will still be sent bitcoins and something tells me that most of the Mt.Gox former users will easily sell their BTC. I think so, because quite a lot of time has passed and people are tired of waiting for their money back. Despite the current drop in the value of bitcoin, this still allows for a very good profit. Which in turn will encourage people to sell btc even now. 200.000BTC is unlikely to be sold at once, but most likely this is the fate that awaits most of this. Perhaps these sales will not affect the value of bitcoin much, but may serve as a trigger for panic selling of other investors. So, I assume that the compensation to the Mt.Gox users will negatively affect the situation on the cryptomarket in one way or another.
cитyaцию нa pынкe.

I don't get what people spreading FUD in the bear market get out of it. You don't see it when we're hitting an ATH, but now so many journalists and influencers compete for the statue of the golden bear that it's painfully boring to watch. Watch out bitcoin could fall more because of:

war in Ukraine
rate hikes
Saylor will sell
miners will turn off their machines
gox money is coming
global recession
s&p 500 crash
bitcoin has to hit 10k because there's where I drew the line
Wolf of Wall Street said there will be a lower low

So remember guys, do as some wannabe analysts tell you and don't buy bitcoin! And if one day you wake up and see it up by 20%? Tough luck. In a few years there's going to be another crash and hopefully you'll be smarter.

If this was a bull market it wouldn’t be so bad. However you need to realize that if the coins are at once sent to their owners and then many of those coins are going to hit exchanges then people will short Bitcoin along with those people who are going to sell those mtgox coins.

There will be little liquidity and it can get ugly. In a bear market everyone is scared to buy and most people only sell. The picked the worse time to release these coins.

August is also what we know as ghost month so I'm expecting a downside even without Mt. Gox scheduled release of bitcoin. Inflation rate also keeps rising which will cause more people to liquidate their holdings to keep up with the rising price of commodities. As long as the issues told by coolcoinz are not solved or have a solution, we should expect more dump coming until next year.

I think it will affect bitcoin price in the time of release. I'm speculating that it will be affected short term but will bounce back to it's price. I can assume that there will be a sharp drop on price since there are many victims are now waiting for their coins to be released and sell into the market. I myself is waiting for the release and the sharp price drop since I'll be catching the bitcoin they are selling.

So all this MtGox coins "drama" is somehow thrown out whenever somebody wants bitcoin traders be uneasy. It has happened before and it may happen in the future too.

The "when" matters a lot. As Franky said here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5406330.msg60570323#msg60570323), the chance is very high that it will take quite a long time until all the funds are sent out (from the moment they start sending). If 200k BTC is sold in a month or two that would be only some 3-7k BTC per day, which is not a big deal. Of course, it depends if this happens in a bull market or bear market.

While there's indeed a good chance many of those people will sell their coins (my take is 50% of the people though), I expect many are smart enough to wait for the price to recover and sell for much better price in a year or two. Since they've been waiting for so long, they may know already what patience is.

So I expect the sales will be actually scattered over many months (or years).

Probably. It may keep the volatility high during that day and depending on the movement of the market. The trend will still favors on the bear this time and I wouldn't be surprised if it will not hold even before the time of its released, I'm expecting news FUD before it even begins.

I think not the MtGox coins directly but the whales love every tiny FUD to create panic. So the whales might start a sell off and make it look like the MtGox coins flooding the market.

It all depends on how markets will react after the release of those Bitcoins. It's been almost 7 years since MtGox went down and I do remember well that the price was down around 180$/btc in MtGox when people were trying to access it as the price indicator was still working. Why this matters ? Well ...MtGox had a big influence back to BTC price and some might want to speculate this release as well.

If they really release it to its old users provably those will give some effect because for sure those old guys would provably sell their stuck coins for long years and this could create fud which can make the price of bitcoin move. But this is for short term only since for sure bitcoin will bounce and many investors will catch the knife at possible bottom price of it.

Liquidity is a short term trading effect as the market has not presumed the coins are not available just not traded actively, it doesnt bring us down especially is my guess.   They are likely to layer payments not a dump truck release of all at once just into one exchange, not all holder would immediately sell maybe if it was at the year start or surprise news of the war but not now imo.

Even though in the short term, we can take our profits back when the bitcoin price starts to move again.
Indeed that is our hope at this time, seeing the price of bitcoin soar and taking a position for us to buy and sell what we have maintained so far.

No, I don't think this is a kind of fud but this was a legit news. It's only up to the person that hears this if they think this can bring negative effect on the price of btc but for me the impact will be hardly seen because it is said that many people already got their payment in advance and those are left or those who prefer to get paid in bitcoins, are probably hodlers. I only wonder why the payout for those who want an advance payment is only $600 up to $1.3k ?

I think that was small compared to the bitcoin that most of them lost way back in 2011. Ah, maybe it was one of the conditions for having your payment earlier than the expected date.

Usually rumours about Mt Gox have adversely affected the market, but these are just rumours. If bitcoins do get distributed to previous owners, they will not necessarily sell them. Especially I don't think such amount will be distributed in several transactions. Most likely this process will be done in parts and will last for a long time. Therefore it seems to me that all this will not affect the market much.

Common sense would indicate that when the mtgox coins are distributed we would see a very large selloff.  This is just the reality.  Many people have had their coins trapped for a long time and will need to sell them immediately because life happens.  The thing is that the big investors know this is coming, and they may in fact have been causing this crash in order to scoop those coins for cheap.  Good investors always tend to be a step ahead, so as the Bitcoin market has matured we've seen more frontrunning, the way the market sold off when it should have been bubbling in the first dip from the 60s.  For now, all we can do is wait and see how things play out.  I do feel the bottom will be coming in the next couple of months if it isn't already behind us.  The next bull market is accepting passengers...

137,000 BTC is not a very big number to make a huge difference in the market, of course it will have an impact, but it is limited, meaning the price can drop a little, but not as it is exaggerated by some.
You must not forget that bitcoins will not be distributed at once to the victims, but will be distributed in batches and in spaced time periods, also not all victims will succeed in passing the conditions of the claim because if they cannot prove their old accounts on the exchange, they will not get anything, all of this It makes me think that the impact of the price will be very limited.

Is it? Common sense would suggest that if the trust offer you BTC or fiat, then you would accept fiat. Not accept Bitcoin in order to sell it for fiat yourself. Am I missing something here? Unless those receiving fiat would receive it after those who accept Bitcoin, then it seems like a much better deal to have the trust sell your Bitcoin for you, rather than sell it later via spot on a potentially depressed market.

While generally I'd agree that an increase in "available" or "active" circulating supply provides selling pressure, even though OTC will absorb them through the trust selling, I think this can be another case of "sell the rumour buy the news", just like the "bearish" CPI numbers announced last week. In summary, price could have already factored in the MtGox coins, just like the CPI announcement.

I've heard too many people claim "price will fall" if inflation numbers are bad, if MtGox coins are released, etc, etc. So far, they are sounding like a bunch of idiots to be honest as price proves otherwise.


These people are unlikely to ever see their coins again, that's the irony though, they will just see the fiat compensation from the trust.


This I agree with. I think part of the selling pressure was partly due to the anticipation of MtGox coins hitting OTC. Now they scoop for them up for cheap (maybe they already are for all we know).


This is ironically precisely my point. The dumb investors are going to waiting for a huge drop after the coins are distributed (completely unaware of the exact manner in which the coins will be dealt with), while the smart investors will have either positioned themselves according or already booked in their orders OTC. The smartest investors will likely be front-running the buying via OTC, given how cheap BTC currently is.

If price was around $30K support and looking weak, I think this would be a different story, and we'd likely see price fall to $20K where it is now. Likewise if it was around $40K we'd see a drop to $30K support or lower. But currently, price is already very cheap (at a 4-year average), many long-term investors aren't worried about buying at $10K or $20K, they'll simply want to already dip their toes in the water as it were.

In the long-term, better to buy at $20K then double down at $10K, or otherwise double down at $40K even, then simply waiting for a price that may never happen...

While it is true that in theory the effects of those coins should be limited, there are many actors trying to move the market at all times, this means they could take the opportunity to try to create panic and make the price of bitcoin to crash again, we cannot really underestimate those people as this is one of those opportunities that from the outside seem like the perfect moment to try to create a significant drop in the market, scare weak hands and get their coins for a very low price.

The bitcoin distribution will be paid out in installments and take place in batches, which is not likely to affect the market much. But what we should be afraid of are the whales, maybe they take advantage of this situation to spread bad news and create panic in the market again.

As a whole, their main aim is to find a way to collect that amount of bitcoins at a low cost, Thus, it is most likely that there will be FUDs causing a drop in the  market in the near future.

I thought they would, but now I doubt it.

Might not affect the market on one go but it would really be happening gradually if those owners of those coins will be selling off once they do get a hold of with their coins and considering those are coins

into those early years where value isnt that high then selling into the current price wont really be that a bad idea.It is just good if it would really be given by parts but we cant really be still that confident
that those owners wont really be considering on selling out once they are able to get in.

We cant really be sure on what would be the price action in the month of August but considering as Ghost month i suppose then i wont really be that much of a surprise
if we do go down comparing on what the price we are seeing as of this moment.

This should be underlined, the known supply of Mt. Gox coins already will be having an effect on prices even before they are 'physically' exchanged into the order books.    Theres some magnetic forces in price vs news and rumor of future action is acknowledged to have an effect, to the extent that many believe you should then immediately reverse course at the point of the news occurring.  So the day Gox coins are known to appear and some sold, ironically we see then will have some bullish effect.
  Its very confusing, similar has been said of Tesla or Elon Musk selling a large amount of what he previously picked up in the bull run of 2021 (for a rich 'self-made' man he is fickle for sure), 75% of its gone so its been noted this reinforces a possible concrete low for BTC.   We dont know the low is good but the 'negative' news and the fact its now in the past, this is totally a reasonable positive to appreciate with going forward.

I understand that the ghost of Mt. Gox is still haunts us up to this day. But I guess life has to move on, so in any case the effect will not that significant, short term maybe, some might sell get their fiat. But who knows, maybe majority will continue to hold specially how Bitcoin grows since the hacks happen. Investors are getting smarter by every bull/bear cycle that they have experience. So I don't think there will a dent in the price this coming August because of this news.

It can't really move on and that is mainly there are tens of thousands of bitcoins there, like literally amount that would be insanely dropping the price to a low level where it can't recover. At one point the "lost" amount was 400k bitcoins, surely not all would be recovered but could you even imagine that? 400k bitcoins would be around 10 billion dollars and the market is not ready for that.

Of course, we just had the news of Tesla selling 1.5 billion and it was alright, so that 400k which probably won't happen, could still happen and we would be fine and it would be alright. I personally believe that the best thing to do would be just letting it be, but people can't, it’s just way too much to ignore.

There’s also the question of how many people will accept the early payouts as opposed to waiting to try and get more BTC. They’ve waited this long… Why not wait longer to get more BTC? Especially after the market’s recent lows. I myself will admit I have considered deferring the payment for longer to try and maximize the amount I recover.

They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.

They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.

Ah that was the part I was missing: that this time the victims would actually be getting coins and not dollars, I'd always somehow remembered that they'd be getting everything in dollars.

Now it makes me wonder if they were waiting for price bottoming out to make people a bit more whole than they would have been able to.

Still, even if it had been a sale, 100k BTC isn't going to move the market much, really. Deal would have been done OTC and spread across batches anyway.

I'm pretty sure that isn't right.  No dollars have ever been distributed that I'm aware of.  If there were, I would have received something.  I believe I only had a few cents in there but I did have a decent amount of BTC. 

It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well.  I assume most of that will be market dumped.  This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC.  I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something... 

This will mitigate some of the selling pressure, but not all of it.

When Gox went out of business, bitcoin was trading at approximately $600, and the ATH was around $1200. The price is currently shy of being 30x the price when Gox filed bankruptcy. These people have not been HODL'ers by choice -- their coin was locked away.

I might be mistaken, but I understand that people had to choose how they wanted to be paid a long time ago. I suspect that many people's financial situation has since changed, and I know the price has changed.

I thought the trustee sold the BCH a long time ago? Around the time of the chain split, or a few months after.

Back in 2017 the trustee sold like 60K worth of bitcoins for fiat, where did that money go? My understanding was that it was to make everyone whole in terms of dollars on the day when MtGox went bankrupt. So 1 BTC was like $900 or so.

If you had 1 BTC they would send you $900. I never followed up on whether the creditors got the money. However why else would they sell 60 K worth of bitcoins if nobody received them?

Yes! Absolutely. The release of Mt.Gox coins in August will cause the price of bitcoin to continue its downtrend.

I'll start with maybe, but I don't expect much. The market will deal with FUD, that's for sure and I think the price will go down.
However, I don't think all customers will sell their bitcoins blindly like when the altcoin market just opened, maybe not bitcoin. Some people will sell and enjoy the results, but in any case it will have an impact on the price of bitcoin in the market.

There will be a negative impact on the market, but more or less we are unable to predict the extent. According to my opinion, there is no need to worry, as Mt.Gox will not pay off all the bitcoins all at once to its creditors, maybe they'll split it up in batches.

There are some people who will not sell their bitcoins once they have received them, as they have seen the strong growth of bitcoin over the years, so it is possible that they may decide to keep them rather than sell them.

So its pretty much end of August and so far nothing I heard about the distribution of the coins. Anyone a creditor who has some insider information on exactly when this distribution should start?

Right now as we break $20K, doesn't seem like a good idea to release all these coins which will obviously cause some dumping in an already illiquid summer market. Also the news of Mtgox coins hitting the markets bids is going to scare off many people.

A new email just went out a few minutes ago to creditors.  It says that there is a start date for assignment of 9/15 so your guess is as good as mine if that's when they'll start making payments or if that's when they'll finalize claims.  I still haven't been asked if I wanted early payout or to wait for the maximum amount, so I wouldn't expect payouts to begin yet.  There is movement though so it is looking like there will be a distribution of some sorts in the coming months.

As far as I understand, Spetember 15th is the deadline for claims (https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-trustee-releases-repayment-procedures-update), which will be finalised followed by the repayments. I've still read elsewhere that the dsitribution won't occur for another 6-12 months from claimants in the know, for whatever reason, around the same time as staked ETH is unlocked post-merge. Ideally this can all happen with Bitcoin bouncing back to $40K to $50K levels.

Not convinced anyone's seeing any of those Bitcoin's next month quite yet, even if it'd be better to get this distribution out the way sooner rather than later.

Today is the first day of September, which means that this topic is no longer relevant. At least the title. Unless, of course, rename August in the title topic to September. As we can see, "Mt. Gox coins had no effect on Bitcoin’s price in August".
 
Are you sure that you will be asked whether you want an early payout or wait for the maximum amount? What if they decide it for you? From the outside it seems to me that they are deliberately playing for time and, as you said, it is also not worth expecting payments in September. This means that it will not affect Bitcoin’s price so soon.

The early payout vs final payout is mentioned several times in the new documents as well as having always been mentioned.  I'm as certain as one can be when dealing with gox that I'll be asked what I want.  Now that the final date to transfer claims has been set as the 15th, I imagine the next step will be selecting how you want your payout and which payout you want.  I would guess (just a guess) that this process takes between 3-6 months, at which point probably another 3 months for the payouts to happen and then a final payout probably 3 months after that.

So will the gox coins effect the price in August?  I think the rumors did, but that's it.

After reading and digesting the information do I think the payouts will happen soon?  Probably not, but there's a tiny chance they could happen this year.  More likely next spring.

^^ For now that we can say that there is an effect, but not that huge as expected by others. Some of them even predicts a $13k or even $10k price, but so far, we are still just above $20k.

Will still have a lingering effect at least at the end of the year? maybe, but at least we have weathered the storm and it is not that worse. Still though, we are in the bear market so anything negative can really affect the price.

Is it already pertaining on Mt.Gox coins? How about other market sentiments or totally just having those random normal days where price could really just go down without any reasons.

We cant really avoid not to think that this Mt.Gox coins are really giving out that kind of effect considering on how many coins been involved and creditors plans on selling their coins
then it cant really be avoided not to make out that impression which those coins would be sold afterwards.

Price now is playing in between 20k level neither below or lower but it do still get a good hold.

The release of coins alters liquidity but its not introducing anything new into the total known supply of BTC.    If it was still news that the coins were available then sure that alters something but literally just having BTC moving through the order books is a normal every day event.  Its the difference from day trading to actual alteration of trend or long term expectations.
    Its not quite the bearish event to fear that some might think, inversely the same thing has to be said when Musk comes out with news he bought some BTC.   Only the usage is the really positive news for BTC, somebody buying or selling doesnt especially alter anything even if they are billionaire or a larger amount like Mt. Gox.     Whales can get washed up on the shoreline same as everything else in the sea, the entire ocean is far larger and thats how I view the direction of BTC in longer term prospects, tides matter people can only make small waves in comparison.

I think what many people miss here is that everybody knows these coins will hit the bitcoin market soon.

The price of Bitcoin has already been adjusted for these coins. This is because in a free market, the stock market or the bitcoin market, actually price things in very fast and is forward looking or future looking, especially stuff like mt gox which everybody knows the amount of coins to be released.

This is how the stock market works also, and I see it all the time.

This basically means, 20K a bitcoin, already factored in that Mt Gox will be releasing a lot of coins. This usually means that once those coins get released, and soon after, the price of bitcoin will probably rise when people realize that these mt gox coins has not affected the price much at all and there is less risk to buy bitcoins.


So, to sum it up here, the price of Bitcoins will actually rise after Mt Gox release.

And then we went to $18k and the possibility of another lower lows, but it seems the market has bounce back above $19k but it was not a relief.

Maybe the news really affected us a bit because we remain below the threshold of the whole numbers - $20k. So the best thing now is to observed whether we can touch $19,700 at least this week so the pressure of selling might be taken off at least this weekend.

The news about Mt.gox hasn't really died down yet as they continue to announce that they will start issuing bitcoins after 9/15, which means they will release bitcoins as soon as the eth merge ends. This will continue to adversely affect the trend of bitcoin.

Today, the ECB decided to raise interest rates by 0.75%, an increase not seen since 1999 and continuing this September, we will also see the next rate hike by the Fed. Shows that the pressure will continue to weigh on the market, so the possibility that we have a strong plunge in September is inevitable.

The news about the release of MT. Gox bitcoin which will start this month will play a huge factor in the next trend of Bitcoin.  I think this news will greatly affect the market because of the possible new volume of BTC to flocks in the sell order of Bitcoin market and might push the price of BTC even lower.  Another thing is the pressure of the next rate hike of FED as stated by Swordsoffreedom.  It looks like Bitcoin will possibly fall under 17k this month.  I hope it won't happen though.

Theres zero things that are inevitable or it would already be the price today, this all still seems like rumor vs news dynamic.   When this terrible feared event happens, it will probably have already been played out in terms of momentum enough to push the market lower.   We can certainly get selling exhaustion, if it was all just simple straight lines I could profit by being this pure negative seller without fear of market going up.   We know its alot harder and more confusing then that for bother sellers and buyers.



ECB raised rates for a larger amount then its done before, true enough.  Its also true that inflation is far higher then any rate of return given, the currency is losing value.  Its going to be years possibly before they catch up with excess currency already produced, politics is unlikely to stay the course to enforce perfect discipline required for currency stability.

I don't think the mtgox funds are going to start being distributed this month.  They just finalized claims.  More likely we will be given a page to select which payout we want (early or full) and then that process will likely go on for 3-6 months before they start distributing.  Just my opinion, it could be wrong.  I don't think anyone is going to get any funds from mtgox this month though, or next.  We have to decide what payout we want before the trustee can do anything and given that claims took almost 10 years to finalize, I don't see payout types being finalized instantly.

Mt.Gox has informed the victims that it has until September 15th (today) to confirm compensation and that the release could also begin on September 16th and there's also no official announcement of a release date so what you suspect is entirely appropriate. Everything is just speculation.
They also made it clear in their announcement that the bitcoin release will be distributed in batches that could take several months to complete, they don't want them all released at once.

Rumors about Mt.gox have been circulating since late 2021 and there is still no more information than rumors so I am starting to doubt its reality.

And since we are now in the second week of September, it seems that this news have been forgotten already. And if in fact it did have some effect, we definitely didn't feel it as the loom and doom prediction of $10,000 didn't happen. On the contrary, the price reaches another milestones in $22,000 and up.

So we will see if there is another news about the Mt. Gox coins being being dumped in the market. It might be a slow process or maybe the trustee knows that it will have a bad effect on the price right now, so much better like it will be in the next 3-6 months.

When Mt.Gox announced the release of BTC in August, there was a mixed reaction in the market. And I also think the market has fallen further due to this effect. But at current prices experienced people will never think of selling it. In that case the market will not be affected much. It will recover soon.

Not that much i should say yet there might be some price decrease but it was really just like an ordinary day.How about on the current decrease that we do have now on Bitcoin price as of this moment?

What are the news and sentiments around that we are seeing? None right? It does mean that market could move out without the need of any fundamentals around.This is what make things even more harder
to speculate and presume out on what would be the next movement of Bitcoin.

Now that we are on September it seems out that Mt.Gox talks had been out already or didnt really get that much mention lately.

I agree. It is not clear whether Mt.Gox will release bitcoin this September or not, since their latest announcement does not indicate when they plan to release bitcoin. Since the current price of bitcoins is so low, it is more likely that people will not sell bitcoins if their bitcoins are returned to them. It has been almost 10 years since the crash and people can wait that long, there is no reason for them to rush to sell their bitcoins at low prices, we are in the market, I think I know that too.

Honestly people are overreacting to it for sure. In the end we had many bad news on bitcoin before, it happened during 2018 as well, same mt.gox news and it dropped but what happened?

We moved to 68k in 2021 so we shouldn't worry about these, we should be considering these as a normal thing that happens in bitcoin and not an unusual thing. That's my personal opinion of course, but people are making decisions based on news is a wrong thing if you ask me, because fundamental is still strong, a gold covered in dirt is still gold and it will still have the same value, you just have to wait until you wash it before you can sell it but it will be still valuable anyway.

We are currently on the bear market which all negative news regardless of how big or small will really affect on the mind of traders because traders are fearful during bear market. We experience this many times in the past and preaching to traders to hold in every little news is useless because they always do panic sell as reaction to the market movement. The only way to overcome this is to let the market absorb of the sellers and wait for the traders to calm.

People are far too afraid of these Bitcoins coming to the market. On the one hand, certainly not all of them will be sold at once and on the other hand, the daily trading volume of bitcoin is much higher than the coins from gox are worth. In addition, no one can say whether all coins are offered for sale. Surely there will be many people who will keep these bitcoins as well. They will hope for higher prices than they are now.  :)

https://i.imgur.com/LZFGYNg.png
Source: https://twitter.com/Rager/status/1563517175553409026

Daily volume is mostly due to traders.  Billions of dollars in BTC hitting the market will most definitely have an impact in the market.  The last time we saw this much fresh BTC get dumped, it sent the market down around $10K.  It isn't a concern to have right now though.  After still having no option to choose the type of payout, and knowing how slow each step goes, I think the odds of a distribution happening this year are around 3%.  More likely next summer we might see this BTC get distributed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-$15K BTC at that time.

Yes, I believe the distribution will not be done in one phase and most likely the percentage distribution of each phase will be very low considering several factors have to be considered. I don't know when it will be done, but I'm sure there will be tug-of-war until the distribution process is carried out in stages.

OgNasty, even I believe the price of bitcoin will continue to correct for the rest of the year and I wouldn't be surprised if it hits $12K - $15K even though the distribution isn't finished yet. I just believe as long as bitcoin price distribution can even drop lower, it's very possible.

Yes, I've also read that the whole procedure is really slow. A lot of people have complained about this. I also think you're right and the coins won't be distributed before next year. Sure, the negative impact on the price will come, but it won't result in a total crash in price, as some people think. Maybe it's good if the price is low at the time. For this reason maybe some people won't sell their coins, but who knows exactly what will happen. In any case, I'm not worried and I hope that the price will recover quickly after the payout.  :)

There are so much talk about Mt..Gox announcement , some are positive but majority is negative  but what we must understand is that this will only effect the market short time and not permanently so if you are investing or investor with long term strategy then we should understand that nothing to doubt about the situation because over time? it will recover and may bring us all profit .

Another email from mtgox went out last night.  It states that we have until January to decide the type of payout we want to receive.  BTC or Fiat, early or final, etc...  The early payout date looks to me like it will be in July of 2023, with no known date for a final payout suggested.  This should put some relief into the traders who were worried about mtgox tanking the market in the near term.  It also puts somewhat of a target on next summer to be the low in Bitcoin's 4-year price cycle.  So for those who are watching to catch the absolute bottom, you may have a while yet.  It is starting to look like the end is near for the mtgox saga though.  Just one more year...

Thanks for the update. And so we might rest that this news will have not effect for us until next year. And as expected we are still in the bear market in 2023 so we shouldn't be relax to say that the bottom is in, and so we should be preparing again next year if the news suddenly comes out about Mt. Gox. Unless though the ghost of the past might be finally laid to rest ... for one more year.

No problem. I’ll continue to provide updates when possible, but Reddit is probably the more informed source for people who want to see the details discussed. Given this new information I tend to think we’re still probably close to a year from the ultimate bottom of the market. Which gives lots of time for people to stack before the next major bull run.

It's been 7 years and we keep waiting for news like this, rumors keep repeating and they keep asking us to come next year, it's like a joke, LOL.
I think there is no need to worry too much about this kind of news anymore, sooner or later they have to release bitcoins to give back to the victims and we can't stop this from happening. This is bound to happen, everyone should get used to it and stop worrying every time this news comes out.

And I guess that we can say today that the price or the Mt. Gox coins didn't put that much dent on the price?

It's already October and almost end of the month and the worst prediction of like $10k-$15k didn't happen as the price is moving on the line of $19k++.

And with that, I will say that indeed the ghost of Mt. Gox is no longer here to us, I know for us still lingers in their memories, but at least now, we can move forward.

Right, there is just minimal effect, everyone is afraid about the timing because of the bear market, but I guess the custodian, Mr Kobayashi knows what to do that's why the price of bitcoin didn't move or falter because of this news although I would say that it might have but not that huge.

The price is still on the sideways and this pattern could be very well go till December.

And so this is a good news for everyone, if the rehab will continue up to the end of the year with no effect, then it's a good indication that we can finally lay to rest the Mt. Gox coins.

No, you’re both horribly wrong. No coins have been distributed yet (see my last posts) so their effect hasn’t been felt yet. People just overreacted to an email thinking they would be distributed a year early. That many coins hitting the market will certainly have an effect, but we’re still a ways away from seeing it happen. The ghost of mtgox is as alive as it ever was and definitely hasn’t been laid to rest.

It's all just Fuds and I remember correctly, the ghost of Mt.gox has been haunting us since 2021 and so far it's all just rumors. Recently, although they announced that they will start issuing bitcoins to registered victims in 2023, but I think this is another Fuds of theirs and don't seem to want to return bitcoins to their victims. They are just trying to buy time with promises and tough procedures for the victim to get many people to give up. So far, I don't believe that Mt.gox is willing to give back that bitcoin, that's a huge amount compared to 7 years ago.

Its impossible that they would really be not giving back considering that creditors are already anticipating and expecting for their coins to be given back which means if those announcements would end up on being

a hoax then it would really be a big trouble or protest for those creditors.They cant just let those words to be end up on being a joke.Its been a while where we do really hear off about
these Mt. Gox funds.
We've been speculating that this could really make out significant effects on the entire crypto market and we've been waiting for it to happen.
Expect the unexpected as always.

They probably no longer have that choice. It's about law now.
Just, if they are smart enough and can stall it a little more so we're back in a bull market, the amounts given back, although a tiny fraction of the initial bitcoins, will still be big money as fiat.


However, I somehow see all these "Mt.Gox money will flood the market" news mostly in times of uncertainty, hence it's imho more about manipulating the market than actually something happening on Mt.Gox story.

People simply interpret information in the wrong way, regardless of the fact that it is very clearly shown to them that they are panicking for no reason. Even if one day Japan's fast-paced bureaucracy decides to start paying out, not everyone will get paid at the same time, nor will everyone get Bitcoin considering that there are options for paying in fiat and even in one shitcoin.

So we got an answer to the question regarding August, September and to some extent October, and now we just have to see if someone will pull this story again in November/December...

Perhaps when the news surface again, we might see the same FUD in November/December. Specially if during that time the price goes on another nose-dived and hit lower lows. And so there could still be manipulation from behind using the old and recycle Mt Gox coins.

But of of now, the price is moving sideways, no one is over-reacting to the news in August because as far as I can remember we have the same movement already.

No, things are definitely happening and not just behind the scenes. Emails have been flowing lately and we’re nearing the final stages of a distribution of BTC. They have even enabled PayPal as a potential way to be paid now. I wouldn’t say it’s a tiny fraction of BTC being distributed either. It’s nearly 20%, which is an insane amount of money still. I’m currently a believer that the BTC will be distributed next year, and once it has been distributed the final hurdle will be removed for the next bull run.

As fiat, yes, it's a huge amount of money. As bitcoin... 20% is not that great (still a loss).
Of course, since the vast majority of those receiving this money would have been spending or losing it by now, it's great for them. But, on the 1BTC=1BTC math, it's a small fraction. Not tiny, though, you're right on that.


Yep, that's what I also expect: sometime after the crypto winter. Ideal would be the bull run, but I can't expect them to stall it for so long. Next year sounds about right.


That would be unsurprising. As long as that money is not (completely!) distributed, some will use that as a scarecrow in uncertain times.

Yet another email has been sent out by the mtgox team reminding creditors that they need to select a payout method by January 10th in order to be included in the payout distribution. It is starting to feel like these coins might actually be rejoined with their rightful owners after a nearly decade long bankruptcy period. I’m actually a believer we may see these coins in wallets by next summer…