Bitcoin Forum

With Bitcoin's price currently in the middle of a trading range around $20K, as well as lack of clear direction as to whether price will rebound towards $30K or fall lower towards $10K, what do people think will happen if Bitcoin returns to the $25K - $30K trading range? With realized price as well as the 200WMA (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/) currently at $22K-$23K, it's likely breaking $25K would be confirmation of a local low (even if not necessarily the absolute bottom), but at the same time $30K acted as support for 18 months, suggesting it could now act as strong resistance. Therefore there could be a lot of indecision as well as volatility within this range it seems.

Current poll options are as follows, ideally explain your reasoning below:

• More buyers will step in: Price will go beyond $30K towards $40K or even $50K
• More sellers will appear: Price will get rejected and fall back down to $20K or lower
• Neither, it'll be balanced: Price will consolidate in this range before moving higher

Strange question I know, but currently it's clear most think the bottom isn't in (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5403237.0) and price will fall lower to $12K or $14K.

So now I'm curious to hear what people think will happen if the majority are wrong  :)

Your poll is missing the "I have no clue" option. That's why I expect most of the honest answers be, from people neither too optimistic, not too pessimistic. (Hence I cannot answer!)
Also, I find the questions a bit difficult, so I expect you don't get too many answers either.

Good point, have included it. I don't think most will vote for this though, the sentiment remains very pessimistic at the moment it seems, so I imagine that'd still be the case if Bitcoin get's to $25K. On a side note this scenario would remind me of 2019 when Bitcoin pumped from $4K to $5K within a week; most people were still heavily pessimistic and therefore waiting for a pull-back to $4K levels that didn't immediately occur.

Not that I think the market conditions are the same as back then, as it was after months of consolidation at the lows as well as other factors, but just as a reference of how when Bitcoin breaks bear market trends or structures most people still don't trust the price movements. I think this is part of the early "disbelief" stage of bull market cycles, that of failing to have faith that a bottom has been formed.


True, not expecting lots of answers either. But still curious to hear what people think even if it is "no clue" or otherwise...

Thank you. I've voted now.


It's hard to tell whether the bottom is in or not yet. Imho that can be known only after the bottom "region" is behind us.
Newcomers are always pessimistic in crypto winter. And I find that normal. I hope that this will be behind us before Christmas. If it won't, then you will see pessimism  ;)


Easier questions would have gotten you more answers. However, good luck! ;)

I know the question is hypothetical, but at the moment $25k or even $30k seems like something that has very little chance of happening, especially if we take into account the fact that the true extent of inflation in the northern hemisphere will be felt only after the summer is over. I don't see what could cause the price to rise in the midst of a bear market, but the increased need for cash in the following months may cause many to decide to sell at least part of their BTC.

It seems to me that we will stay between $19k and $22k for months because it seems that a balance has been created between sellers and buyers - serious buyers will still wait for some lower values, and sellers sell only what they have to. In the event of a sudden 20% pump, I think many would take advantage, especially those who bought at the lowest possible levels.

Your topic reminds me of my friend, who was successful because of Bitcoin two years ago, he only knows crypto exchanges, but he doesn't know Forums, this is the story.

• My friend is a military employee in the government, after knowing about Bitcoin, he lent money in the bank $15k, the bank will cut his salary and my friend has no burden to cover the bank and the interest, at that time the first Bitcoin was in the $8000 position, he bought 1 Bitcoin, who knows it went down and up, in fact Bitcoin was getting lower to the $6000 level, all the rest of the money he borrowed was invested in Bitcoin, he got 2 more Bitcoins with the first one he bought.
From my friend's story, he only held -+ one year, Bitcoin continued to rise and rose to the level of $60k, felt he had a big profit he let go, finally now he has everything he wants because of Bitcoin.

Conclusion: from my friend's experience and this topic, for me there are currently two options.
1. Buy now at least 1 Bitcoin.
2. Wait for the next Bitcoin price.

I think such a method can be done at this time, if it goes down buy again, hold it, but if it goes up to $30k, it's up to sell or not sell, maybe you want to target up to $50k, who knows, everyone has their own understanding.

Basically my choice.

True story, I already have the answers from easy questions (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5403237.0) already though. Thanks anyway.


This I agree with, if there is a quick pump from here to $25K. I did however think this back in 2019 from $4K to $5K (+25%) within a week (or a single day if not mistaken), but after a few weeks it became pretty clear this wasn't going to happen as price consolidated. But this was after 3 months of consolidation, not just one month, without a bearish macro economic environment, so still inclined to agree to some degree. I think more likely would be a quick pump from $23K to $28K/$29K however, which would also be around +20 to +25%, simply because there is a big volume gap if price does soon leave the trading range to the upside.

Either way, kind of expecting a big move to play out once price leaves the trading range, whether that be to the upside or the downside, sustained or not, similar to what happened last month.

My vote goes for "More buyers will step in" because right now, everyone is looking out for a bottom.

We know about Bitcoin's cycles.
When we reach a certain amount of $ per Bitcoin, people are getting FOMO and we can enter a new bull market.
But we need to reach a certain price above our current low for people to get enough trust.

Financial institutions are roaring to get aboard

One thing I do when the Bitcoin market slips into this indecision mode is to try not to get my hopes too high because anything can happen.
In as much as it is advisable to always stay positive, I try not to over do it in order to avoid being disappointed when things fail to turn out as I expect.
Bitcoin price right now is highly unpredictable, one can hardly tell whether it will go up or down, I am personally just watching the market and will buy in when I feel a sense of rally and sell when I feel it's about to go down.

This is kind of the irony I find though. Many institutions aren't able to invest in Bitcoin as a reverse asset when it's worth less than $1 trillion (too risky). When previously Bitcoin was worth more than $1T it was around $50K and generally considered either overbought or too risky. Maybe the fact that Bitcoin has already reached $1T and can no doubt do it again there will be buyers stepping in before then though, only time will tell.

Overall, an institutional buy level, well as main accumulation/distribution level (based on volume) does appear to be around $30K. For now I see this level very similarly to $6K to $8K back in 2018, as it's where the majority of volume lies in the past 18 months, as well as where institutions such as Tesla and Microstrategy (as well as others no doubt) invested for the long-term, and haven't yet sold most notably. Institutions also won't mind if it drops to $25K thereafter, if they are investing for the long-term that is. But regardless the derivatives market could have it's way if $30K is heavily shorted, that much is clear.

I voted for the option “More sellers will appear” at least to me it is difficult to see bitcoin going up to those levels so quickly as the economies of the world are not doing well at all and things will get even worse.

However assuming the scenario you are projecting happened those very same conditions will force the hands of most people and they will decide that such a range is good enough and they will sell their coins, then the whales will take advantage of it and create a lot of FUD and the price will get back to its current levels.

As Michael Saylor says a major problem is that financial institutions can't take custody of crypto because there is no certainty if they are commodities or securities. Once these ambiguities are resolved financial institutions can enter the space.

Currently the biggest holders are waiting for ETP approvals like ARK and Grayscale. Microstrategy to my knowledge is only holding it as an asset which binds their stock value to Bitcoin...

Since Europe and Canada already have approved ETPs it's only a matter of time for the US to build legislation and regulation to allow it...

I don't think the current marketcap has any real effect except for showing that Bitcoin is legit.

I voted for Neither, it'll be balanced. For me that is going to happen as we're definitely on the bear market although we have some sort of recovery around the mentioned price.

I also doubt that FOMO will set it to offset the sellers or more buyers will appear in the market. And with the global recession, perhaps investors are still reluctant not just in crypto market but in other traditional market as well.

We are in a bear market right now so if price reaches that in the coming weeks I expect to have more selling pressure. It's too early to say that bull run will begin again because of the threat of recession and inflation rate keeps rising so more people would liquidate their assets to survive in the economic crisis that many countries are currently experiencing. If price reaches those soon, it could be a good time to take profit or cutloss and wait for the market to dump again.

I think the thing is not as simple as that, like if it hits x price that will make buyers or sellers do such and such. There are many other things that can influence the price. For example: is the FED going to raise interest rates by 1 point at the next meeting? Is the war going to end soon or will it last much longer? Are we going to have another exchange going bankrupt soon?


I think similarly to you but I think the range between $19k and $22k is very narrow. I do think we can move into the $17k to $30k range in the next two to 3 months. You have to think that even though the price is sideways lately, it can go up or down fast.

The economic situation of the present world is very bad, especially the war between Ukraine and Russia is responsible for the poor condition of the world economy. At the moment, inflation has created a messy environment with everything rising in price. Moreover, since crypto is bearish, all things considered, the market can take a long time. It is difficult to predict when crypto momentum will go in which direction. It can move positively anytime in the current market trend.

What I can say is that we will be at these levels at least for the next month, and if there is a rise, it will be followed by a final correction in the price which will be at levels below 28k because it is rare for Bitcoin to break two resistance levels without a unique or influential news.

How countries deal with inflation and stagnation is what will determine the short-term trend, so all options will be open based on the decisions of central banks for Q4 of this year.

(Personal wish) I hope we to see $32,000 level in less than 3 months

Indeed I'm not denying that other macro factors can or will be more influential to price movements than price itself. I guess the poll is based on the current economic situation, which is of course ever changing. I think your questions would make a good poll in itself, as to what might most affect price in the near future, or why price might fall much lower, or whether these events will occur.

That said, since the "bearish news" of CPI numbers, Bitcoin has rallied 10%. So clearly these macro-economic factors don't always immediately influence price in the way many suspect it will. As I've said before, the bearish economic climate will negatively affect price until it no longer does. There will eventually be a decoupling to traditional markets as there always has been imo.


I also think the current trading range is too narrow. Whether that means price drops to $10K and consolidates between $10K and $20K for months to come, or whether the trading range is expanded to $20K to $30K is another story. Either way, the longer price remains within this relatively tight range (tight for Bitcoin at least), the more volatile the break-out will be to a new trading range imo.

I am of the opinion that nothing important will happen at least until the beginning of Q4, and I also do not hope that any new big investors will appear, given that the time of cheap money is behind us and that everyone is starting to tighten their belts in view of all the apocalyptic announcements about to what awaits us next winter and after that.

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Be prepared for anything when it comes to Bitcoin, and whatever happens can't surprise me personally. In the past, good news has raised the price overnight by 20% or more without any problems, but bad news also resulted in even a 50% crash. It's true that the range I'm talking about is very narrow, but remember how long we were between $28k and $32k before crashing below $20k.

I appreciate people who still have more knowledge in the area of TA and their analysis, but it seems to me that we are still too deep in the bear market to be able to expect positive changes in the price in terms of returning to the values of a few months ago.

I'm afraid that  the votes speaks for it , and that is sellers will gather because  many of them are waiting for the chance so recover their losses from the former dumping. I myself consider to sell some part of my holdings if the price reached back 30k because to be ready in case there is another dump comes .
but I will decide once the price goes back to that level.

Current market trend if we compare to the last few days then Bitcoins have given a positive approach.
So this will only indicate that more investors will show trust in Bitcoins and hence they will buy more Bitcoins.
Many have also predicted that Bitcoins will cross the 30k usd mark by the end of the month.
We need to just wait and show some patience in the Bitcoins.

I also predict there will be more buyers if bitcoin price hits 30k.  There are many people waiting for bitcoin to fall further before purchasing, but if bitcoin rises to 30k, then they will jump in to buy as they think their prediction is wrong, and they do not want to miss the opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin. Many will say that the bear season is over and the bull season has come when bitcoin hits 30k, there will be a certain Fomo at that point.

Despite the increase of CPI index rate and Celsius bankruptcy application. Bitcoin is still standing strong on the 20K level for almost a month. This might be a good sign for a consolidation and probably we can see a short to mild bull run up to 25K next week if we manage to close above 20K for the weekly candle. I’m starting to believe now that The current price is almost the bottom because there’s no strong sell pressure besides the the release of CPI index rate since that is pure manipulation from whales and retail traders.

I choose No Idea because I do not know if bitcoin will return to $25k-$30k soon but I feel that the price can go back to below $25k soon and maybe this year. But the price can also increase more than $25k this year if many people support bitcoin more than before so that can make the price move and go up to a higher price. If the price is really back to $30k, maybe I will sell some portion but not the big amount as I am still waiting for the next new ATH that can happen anytime.

It seems that we can't break the next barrier of $22k, I forgot how many times we try to go over that hump, but it seems that it's the point wherein speculators are going to sell to make their profits. So first maybe we can't even see $25k the soonest. But if ever we go their, maybe the same attitude and scenario will happen, sellers are going to be evident, as everyone wanted to make money in this bear market.

In my opinion it all boils down to:

1 - if the price drops below 17000$ then 14000$ and then 10,000$ will be the price we will see

2 - if the price breaks 22000$ it will go up to 27000$ - 28000$ and will stay between 22000$ to 28000$ for some time before trying to break the 28000$ again, that's because from 28000$ to 30,000$ and a very strong resistance zone

Its eerily close to call, plus its just a few votes. These type of polls shows me how much bitcointalk is used actually, in a place like reddit we would had a ton more votes. In any other situation, I have to say its not really a deal where we could make any kind of deduction based on this poll. I believe that there will be both, "then" would be hard to predict, but both buyers and sellers will be around for sure. This is why I believe that we shouldn't be really focusing on this part yet. Lets focus on getting to 25k and more first, we are not there yet and talking about what will happen after we get there makes no sense to me.

We can't simply find a reason for the growth, but everyone can make predictions. According to me the price of bitcoin suddenly won't move to that zone. The price of ethereum that grew mutual with the bitcoin have increased higher. When price of bitcoin reaches $21k+ the price of ethereum used to go $1200+ Now ethereum have moved $1345+ and this shows the variation over the market happening with bitcoin and altcoins. So, buyers could move towards altcoins in the coming weeks.

There are too many factors for the sudden trend so I voted the "No idea, see results".

We all know that the market price is unpredictable but still we create guesses and predictions based on our assumptions.  As we can see, there's a few positive news that's currently happening that might makes the Bitcoin price a little uplift.  So possible it will return to that price range after a month(s).

So I think we should be prepared at all times, if you're a holder, never sell at a lower price.

There has been way more mining in recent years. So the halving will happen before the expected 2024. I think we will see Bitcoin going up oct-Nov 2022 and up again march- April 2023 then the halving will happen in later 2023 and send it north of 100 K. That's just one guy's opinion.

For now, indeed, bitcoin has not been able to break the next barrier but at least the price can stabilize at $20k-$21k and that's good for bitcoin. It might not be long before the price could go even higher and who knows, it could just go up to $25k or more. We hope this situation can change as soon as possible so the price can return to high prices again. Today's price is still at $21k more and we should be grateful that the price can return to it after getting yesterday's correction.

$30K is going to be nasty resistance if it gets there. Look at the daily chart, it was strong support and now will be strong resistance. You can guage the state of the market by what happens at $30K.

If it closes above $30K then you can say that $17K was the low and we will trade higher. However there is a good chance that $30K will get tapped and it'll try and head back down to new lows.

History has proven that after a big drop people are scared and will wait for a positive signal. That positive signal is breaking a major resistance and going above that with a strong momentum. We have had this many times in the past like in 2019 when price was stuck in $3k range and wasn't going up but as soon as the resistance at $4k was broken a large number of buyers poured into the market and started FOMO buying. Their influx caused a massive rise from $4k to nearly $14k, that is 250% rise in only 2 months.

You played a little in your imagination and you don't understand that the halving can't just happen half a year or earlier if it happens every 210 000 blocks. More crypto miners don't make mining faster, the mining difficulty is always adjusted so things can always go their way. Regardless of your thinking, the next halving is predicted sometime in the month of May 2024, although various halving calculators with regard to the calculation method show different estimates.

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The question is when and if this signal will appear, given the pessimistic mood that prevails among the richest countries, and how it is only in the poor ones where people always live on the edge of existence. I know that there are always those who have money to invest regardless of the economic situation, but retail investors have a hard time dealing with inflation and the question is, will they bite into the FOMO bait as it was the case in the past?

I do not believe that history necessarily has to repeat itself in this way. We could go from breaking, say $25K to $60K in a couple of months, but given the current situation I see that as unlikely. We know that Bitcoin is capable of rising very fast but as the price and market cap rises, the rate of rise should tend to slow down.

That's right. This is what I see happening as well. This is the first time in a long time that BTC is showing signs of bullishness. It is this type of move that I am seeking. There are a lot of people eyeing similar opportunities. As a matter of fact, there is very little resistance the whole way. That you're hitting a point in the market where it's no longer just down, is exciting to me. If there was a large squeeze, I think bitcoin would rise to 24k to 25k if there was a weekend pump.

We are building a very strong support line at the 20-21k usd now.

People get optimistic back really quick with these uncertain market , just dont forget that there is a possibility for us to get crashed one more time unexpectedly in the middle of an optimistic market like this. 21k support line nearly formed if we stay for a couple days at the current range

We have to wait and see because the world economy is so fragile right now but I believe there is still a good chance that we see the same FOMO repeated because a large part of the money that went out of the market is still waiting on the sidelines to jump back in and more importantly we would no longer have the same panic sellers to create a sell pressure to prevent the rise.

I did not find an estimate of how much money is currently on the sidelines, but if that amount was around $5 trillion last year, given the current state of the market, it is possible that that amount is much higher. It's hard for me to be positive at this moment when it comes to this year, and even the first two quarters of next year, given all the warnings that are literally flooding us here in the EU.

If there is something positive in everything, then it is that we have probably gotten rid of weak hands and that we may be at the beginning of a new cycle.

I think that there will always be some weak hands. Basically they will be here in each and every cycle.
But I agree, at least if the history will repeat itself, we are not far from the end of the bear market.

On the other hand, I agree with pooya87. The international finances look bad. And when people doesn't have money, they will not invest, even more, they will liquidate their investments. I hope that this will not make the bear market stay for longer than it should though.

And then one has the right to wonder where this mini pump came from if the global economy is in trouble, and the little man is struggling with inflation that has no end in sight. It seems that the OP could get the answer to his question with a practical example - weak hands seem to have gone on vacation 8)

My speculation is that when the money exited bitcoin, it had nowhere else to go since most other markets were dumping with many of them dumping hard without any hope in sight.

Also the good thing about bitcoin is that it doesn't need that much money to shoot up, all it takes is breaking a resistance and forming a strong momentum then all that money comes back. But also it attracts money from other markets. For example the money that was waiting to reinvest in stocks that had dumped sees the much bigger profit in bitcoin and buys bitcoin instead.

Now the price of bitcoin is $ 24k and I'm sure tomorrow or the day after tomorrow the price will return to $ 25k, the market is already bullrun again and I'm more optimistic to continue to buy bitcoin, of course we regret because we do not use the opportunity when the price of bitcoin is under $ 20k but if we don't buy now then we will regret the second time.

It's looking promising to cross $25K based on many metrics. Most notably despite quite a few liquidations two days ago sub $23K, there hasn't been another round of notable amount of liquidations since then. Given how many people shorted from $30K levels, and remain in (part) of their positions, crossing $25K or higher could trigger another round of liquidations, pushing the price higher again.

Potentially many more liquidations won't occur until $28K or $30K, if short traders are trying to hold their positions for as long as possible, anticipating lower lows and the current pump to be a bull trap. This is why I can see how Bitcoin could cross $30K relatively easily, despite the fact it should act as strong resistance (as it was previous support). Similar to 2019 around $6K to $8K levels.

When the market is on great or extreme fear then its not surprising that people would really be hesitating on buying on but there are ones who are really that risk taker on positioning themselves on the bottom and now the market did make out some positive movement and possible to pass 25k price and might drive going back to 30k.It might not be an assurance because this wont be a smooth sail ride
but who knows? Bitcoins price is always unpredictable and to those who had made out some analysis and made out such actions earlier and now the price had climbing up then it was an easy profits i would say. Selling would be depending on what kind of trader and investor you are whether a long term one or short term one then it would totally be your own choice.

Bitcoin that shows a positive movement does increase the enthusiasm of investors to buy Bitcoin. Even though we know the movement of Bitcoin is
very volatile and there is a possibility that Bitcoin will fall again, although I actually hope Bitcoin can continue to rise to get back to the price of
$ 30k. But as you said, it all depends on our respective decisions in responding to this positive Bitcoin movement. If more people took profit
because they bought Bitcoin when it was below $20k, then it is very possible the price of Bitcoin could fall again. But if more people invest in Bitcoin
for the long term, then Bitcoin is very likely to reach the price of $ 30k and can even continue to go higher. In conclusion, we still have to be
careful about the current movement of Bitcoin. Which is where the movement of Bitcoin is very difficult to predict and can move in the direction
we do not expect. Therefore, make sure we always analyze the market regularly, so that we can make the right decisions.

It was always seen in the Bitcoin market history that the majority of the speculation is wrong.  People will just go on with the market trend even though the majority of them think otherwise.  People are adaptable so they tend to adapt and change their views when the market started to change its sentiment.  But I think the current market is still bearish.  This is just another higher low, and we can expect another Bitcoin price drop soon since there is no strong enough news yet that can change the market sentiment.

I choose the option a because if that happens then I think we will see a further increase in the price because I believe that there are so many lurkers here that simply waits for the price to recover a lot before they jump in investing again and I think they are also the ones that will sell early once we see a major improvement in the price, so a second option in the poll is also possible.

No OP, your question is not strange but I only find this normal although it's true that there are some who thinks that the bottom is not in yet. That is why it's also advised to wait a little bit if you are planning to buy more, so that you will get the most out of your money.

you may be right or wrong on this possible scenario. but the good thing about this market is, we are all free to give our own sentiments or speculations. and at the end of the day, it is on you how you will take advantage of the current market. we can speculate all we want, but then what? are we going to react or just be an observer?

The market can move in any direction. As an user said all that required is a good momentum and the market starts to rise and the money exited will come back. In recent days it looks like lot of money have flown into altcoins. This can be seen through the growth of ethereum which to some extent is in close movement along with bitcoin. $25 - $30k can happen anytime, but how long the market sustains seems to be a short term.

This is also my general theory. The scenario breaking above $25K as well as $30K would remind me a lot of 2019. Many thought that that price would fall back down to $4K once $5K was reached, but instead price continued higher. Then around $6K to $8K previous long-term support it seemed like price would get rejected by this previous support, but instead price went substantially higher.

I think it's true that many investors are waiting on the sidelines, given how economies are in turmoil, but if Bitcoin price breaks it's bearish trend then this won't matter anymore imo. As for others who will sell at the first sign of recovery, then it's safe to say there are always sellers in the market, but I also think if these sellers haven't sold already after price dropped by $20K for 4 weeks they are now unlikely to do so.


This is the irony and the reason for my questioning. While many in a previous poll thought the bottom wasn't in and price would go significantly lower, more people in this poll currently think that more buyers would appear if price reaches $25K to $30K. So it seems likely that many think these prices won't be achieved anytime soon, if they think price will go lower, but if they are they would likely change their opinion.

It's not too late to purchase Bitcoin because since the price is still between twenty thousand (20k) I think there is a lot of advantages because we are looking up to sixty thousand (60k) and hundred thousand (100k). So anyone who want to buy bitcoin now can as well purchase Bitcoin because it'll have a long way to go. Since the price is still in the state of twenty three thousand (23k) and twenty four (24k) you can invest more of it because of bullish proper time.