Bitcoin Forum

A bear market could be said to be when the share price of a commodity continue to decline over a period of time. Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets.
In these so called “trying times”, selling off assets are encouraged and people are inclined to sell because of the unstable and/or decline in prices.

    I’m curious on your thoughts and opinions on how much bitcoin and/or fiat currency would be considered safe to hold in a bear market like the one we’re currently in.(eg:70% fiat and 30% bitcoin).
Understandably, people would have different thoughts and opinions on how much is safe to hold cause income level varies among individuals.

Currently my money mostly on Bitcoin around 70%, gold 10%, stock 5% and fiat 15%. I only use fiat money to pay daily expense and for emergency funds if I needed in hurry, if Bitcoin continue to deeper, I will sell all of my gold and stock to convert it to Bitcoin. Because it doesn't make sense for me to hold fiat for long time, we're suffering of high inflation rate and even you hold for 4 years you wouldn't earn anything.

In Bitcoin it's different and that's why I sold all to bought more Bitcoin.

At this point I don't know what is more risky: a bearish crypto market or fiat currencies melting purchasing power each new week you go to the supermarket. Personally I'm entirely into crypto and more specifically bitcoin, with the exception of the money I need for daily expenses, so I believe to have more than 90% in btc and less than 10% in fiat. If it's safe or not only time will tell. Life is full of uncertainties and sometimes you are surprised when you least expected in a negative or positive way. I hope to be surprised positively on this matter, with the permission of God, as soon as this bearish market is over.

I mean, at least from bitcoin you can expect something futurely, while the same can't be said regards fiat.

My portfolio:

- 30% BTC
- 10% Other cryptocurrencies
- 60% FIAT

There is absolutely no way to determine how much amount of BTC and other cryptocurrencies would be considered safe to HODL during bear markets due to the extremely volatile nature of this market.

I'd recommend keeping 90% BTC and 10% FIAT. There is really nothing worse than FIAT, even gold and silver are better. FIAT is what makes bankers happy and people miserable.

put it this way

you have 2 choices..(using gold analogy)
buy gold only in bull market when it is prices at $1900
or buy gold in a bear market when it is $1400

personally.. id be all in on the bear market
and sell on the bull


if you havge an influencer telling you to:
sell low buy high
buy bull sell bear
dont hold on the bear

change influencers

As someone who has witnessed a rise in price of bitcoin after a long bear market in the past, I decided to take advantage of  this bear season to buy more bitcoin with 60% of my savings then 40% of my savings is in fiat because fiat is mostly accepted in my region.
Am even thinking of adding my bitcoin to 70% since am holding for long period depending on when the bull run will begin as I can't continue to hold fiat that keeps depreciating everyday irrespective of the fact that the government is backing the use of it.

I'm currently mostly on fiat but that's against what I want, a few weeks ago when some ket support lines broke in the bitcoin market I saw that a good option to sell and buy at a cheaper price because according to the price level I bought bitcoin I got profits from it, so selling was not coming bad during that time, but right now because of the situation in my country and the inflation rate I didn't touch my long term gold investment and nearly 10% of my holding is gold and another share is mostly fiat I'm waiting for a good chance to enter the market again and maybe I will buy with more than 70% of it.

Do you recommend this as a general rule for investors in bitcoin?
Someone who had 90% of their worth in bitcoin before the market recent crash from the ATH would have lost over 60% of the value in a year, which could lead to serious financial crisis, especially if it is for a pressing need. Fiat losses its value as well, but bitcoin is much more volatile.

I will recommend a more reserved amount of about 20-25% in bitcoin and an average of another 35-40% in other investments, and the rest in fiat.

- Jay -

As long as you have cash in spare, most of your "investment" should be both ETH and BTC. Call it there and never touch it for ever again until the trend reverses. Of course Bitcoin holders would not think of selling off a large chunk during these times and usually the ones that do are those we call it - panic sellers and they are quite common in here. Back then I was like one of those sellers and I learned it the hard way.

No point of selling of assets during these "trying times" you mentioned and it is even a bad idea. You know what they always say:

You're not being encouraged by anyone! You do what you want.

What if Bitcoin was land and you bought it because you liked where it lies and thought holding it might be good for the future. Then suddenly some people came to you saying they'd buy it for half the price you paid for it because apparently the market price went down. Would you sell it to them? I sure wouldn't.

The thing with investment is that you must have some money to live on and some that you invest. If you feel bad because the market is down and you still have enough money, step away from it. Do something you like, have some fun, come back in 6 months to check how things are.

I currently hold more bitcoins than I had in November 2021 and whether I get a $100 or 2 from a signature campaign I add it to my portfolio. I've been doing the same thing in 2018 and 2019.

Bear markets are better time for holding bitcoin than bull markets. In a bull market you should be selling and buying in a bear market. Unfortunately most people do the opposite which is why the world is full of poor people.

There's no definite answer to it as it solely depends on an individual's risk capacity. If someone has a stable income and a good amount of surplus money to invest, he might want to invest more into cryptocurrency in the bear market due to its volatility. I would personally do that if I have money. Because then I will be able to make a huge amount of profit during bull cycle. So it is really subjective and depends on the risk taking capacity of an individual.

Also one thing we need to keep in mind that never put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification is the key and we must diversify out of crypto market. Your portfolio should include gold, bond, stocks, bank deposits etc. So when one asset goes down, you can have support from other assets.

The bear market is for bitcoin, not bitcoin and fiat together, fiat currencies experience inflation, which has always been a problem for fiat holders.

100% of your money is safe in bitcoin in any market, bull or bear, if you the owner keeps it safe, you asked if it is safe, so that is the answer, bitcoin will not dump until it is no more, like altcoins do, the winter period may not be a good time for bitcoin holders, but the fall is only transient and the price will correct in the long run.

Despite the fact that your money is 100% safe in bitcoin, you should not invest 100% of your money in it, that is investing more than you can afford to lose, choose an amount that suits you, one that wouldn't need you to go back to your portfolio to withdraw out of it because you are now broke in real life and need some money. But as for the safety of your money, if you don't make any errors, it is certain.

Just on holding in fiat we're gonna experience loss with time. It is good to hold in terms of cryptocurrency or in the form of valuables like gold. As we don't have great access to cryptocurrency all around there is a need of fiat for day to day life. So, keeping aside the required funds in the form of fiat and investing the rest in cryptocurrencies is the good choice. Being in bear market it gives us the opportunity to invest less and accumulate more holdings.

I still hold the old thought that 1 BTC = 1 BTC, so I almost completely keep my money in BTC and other altcoins and maybe only leave 10% for fiat money and even then to buy back when the price drops again, taking as much as possible when the market is bear it is the best way to invest in crypto and earn huge profits in the long run

30% fiat.
45% stable coins.
10% altcoins.
15% btc.

I have upto 30% in fiat because of much and multiplied responsibilities that needs to be handled and fiat is the most acceptable means of spending in my region.

The 45% in stable coins is waiting for the final signal to buy bitcoin, when I am convinced it has gotten to the bottom. But for now, I keep doing DCA from the 45% stable coins.

10% altcoins I'm holding is not purposeful, the coins dumped one me and I decided to hold.

After selling your assets including BTC in the start of bear market, that's all it is. No matter how much are those you will need to live with it and start budgeting til the bullrun is back again. The cost of living today is just too high because of the inflation, a reason for some staked their stablecoin on Terra

If you have a job, you don't need to spend a huge chunk of the profit and you can use the funds frugally in order to buy more coins when prices bottomed.

stable coins is pretty much fiat in a different form.. so your suggesting
75% fiat and only 15% bitcoin

fiat LOSES VALUE..
hold fiat for 2 years and i guarantee you you will not be able to buy as much car fuel, bread, milk, meat, veg

during inflation holding fiat is BADDDDDD
either spend it on goods to hoard/stockpile before those goods increase in price.
or spend it by investing in other assets.. but just putting fiat value into another form of fiat value.. is just meaningless and not an investment. its just a silly way to store fiat under your mattress where said mattress is a encrypted key.. but generates you no profit

bitcoin is at this market cycles low meaning its the best price to buy compared to the rest of the market cycle and next market cycle in 2 years. so buying bitcoin now is better.. because in a couple years you will be able to buy more
car fuel, bread, milk, meat, veg

altcoins dont hold value. they are 99% pure speculative. so just ride them temporarily on the waves (buy the dip sell the hype/buy low sell high)

maybe, that idea is fine if you are already in the crypto market and have seen a lot of ups and downs in this market. but for people who are outside this market, or those people who don't know how crypto works, i am certain, they will prefer to store their extra funds in fiat or in other tangible assets like gold or real-estate properties. but i can understand if the sentiments here is to store their funds in btc if the user is very familiar with btc market. because at least they know the possible repercussions of being heavily invested in crypto.

I can not understand how holding Fiat has to do with the Crypto-currency bear market, to be honest Crypto-currency isn't yet completely adopted and everyone still makes use of them, there is no way you can control the Amount of Fiat you would be needing there can always be emergencies that would make you need them.

Well the bear market is a down period in the crypto-currency space but in my own opinion holders of Bitcoin has little or no reason to worry, well except for short term holders who had intentions of gaining quickly, Bitcoin would definitely bounce back and an all time can even happen as close by as next year, so I can say anyone can hold any amount of Bitcoin that they can afford without borrowing.

fiat loses value. so when fiat is in bear. your losing more value..

however a crypto when its price is low. is a good value to buy in. a great opportunity to stock up.

when inflation is high you need to get rid of fiat. when bitcoin is low you gotta hoard bitcoin

This would really vary on each person because we do have different level of risk taking on particular things which it would really be that understandable that numbers wont really be the same.
In my case 80% in fiat and 20% in crypto which i dont really bother myself with my crypto holdings despite of the bearish condition that we are in.It does depend on certain individuals
on selling out their assets basing on their plans.

We know that we cant just have bear markets forever and for those who had bought cheap will eventually be able to make out some profits or gains later on
but of course it wont be guarantee on which one.

It's worse than that. Stable coins are really a worse type of fiat because they make you take additional risk, especially if you're in USDt that as we all know is not fully backed and we don't know how much of backing there really is. It can be 90%, but it also can be 60%. If we take the best case scenario for them and assume they have 90% backing, if things go south 10% of their investors aren't going to be able to exchange their tokens for anything of value. Would you like to be in that 10%?

Fiat is inflationary. If you hold Turkish lira for instance, you're better off buying BTC because in the last 2 years it went down less than the lira. It actually outperformed a number of fiat curencies. A year ago BTC was at 30k and now it's at about 35% loss from that day. The lira is down almost 50% in that time.

As much bitcoin as possible is the only way at this situation, but it's a good idea to mix it a bit with gold and silver, maybe add some stocks like energy companies, maybe ETH since it dropped hard after the merge but it's not facing any problems so it's a good buy.

Are you serious? One hundred percent, no more, no less? Does it happen? For me, this is a utopia about Bitcoin. What about contingencies? And yes, it all depends on the country you live in. I would rather hold a smaller amount of bitcoin than I have in fiat; more to say, I am someone who lost a sufficient amount while hoping that bitcoin would rise soon. Therefore, bitcoin is good, but I would prefer to invest in it only because, as it has often sounded, it is not a pity to lose. 
As long as the situation with the economy and wars develops in a negative stream of news, I do not think that we should hope for any big growth. Does anyone see an end to the bad news?

It’s not safe to put all of your money in bitcoin, neither is it wise. You do not put all your eggs into a single basket.
You say it’s 100% safe to have your money in bitcoin but we shouldn’t still put a 100% into it. Personally, I don’t think your money is a 100% safe in bitcoin. I’m no naysayer but I don’t fully trust bitcoin the same way I haven’t got complete faith in fiat currency. And that’s why I’m a bit hesitant to put any higher than 30%.

I think it's the inverse, in the bear market especially the ones like the current scenario where we are at rock bottom, most of your holdings should be in BTC only so that you can enjoy anytime the market reveres from here. Just a small portion say 25% should be in fiat which will be used to Dollar Cost average your positions in the next leg down. This way you will ensure that you are able to be in a better position whenever the market falls next and are also ready for any reversal. Selling of should never be a considerable option in these scenarios, one should always try to keep calm and don't sell unless you are in dire need of money.

If you read a bit down in my statement, you would have seen this The 45% in stable coin is been accumulated, waiting for a possible $15k price, if this happens, all will go into bitcoin. But till then I keep DCA.
Fiat loses value to what ever extent you can think of, it is not an exergeration. The best is to buy properties as you advised rather than saving in fiat currency.

OP, have more fiat then make sure you buy more bitcoin during a bear market. You will definitely enjoy the results in the long term, but I don't expect you to forget the risks.

There is a good strategy to practice when the market is bearish, that is DCA. So you can use 20% to 50% of your fiat to buy bitcoin, so you will have a lower chance of getting it for the next accumulation process. Don't be afraid to make yourself a long-term investor in bitcoin, but don't if you can't afford the risks.

How about holding everything in bitcoin except the money which you need in your daily usage? If you have the money and the funds, it's best to buy in the bear market as much as you can and then wait for the bull market. We cannot sell at the top in the bull market but if you have some experience you can sell near the top and gain awesome profits.

Yeah, I will consider holding any amount since you will never know when you will going to sell some of it. There are no safe zone for holding any amount for as long as you can afford to lose it then that's the risk you consider no matter what happens. Converting it to fiat or just holding on to fiat will not give you anything during the bull run even if you hide your fiat in the banks there are no difference. And somehow, Bitcoin is different since every market cycle the price changes and there your investment grow or down depending on the market situation.

What do you mean "holding everything in bitcoin"? Do you think to invest in a single coin, BTC only?
I was thinking to have a single coin (BTC), but I prefer to diversify crypto assets now. I assume we should consider top altcoins too, they have a good potential to increase their values in the future. Holding BTC is good, but holding top altcoins is a nice idea. During this bearish market, it is a perfect time to buy both BTC and top altcoins.

Regarding OP questions, I only invest in BTC 15%, Top Altcoins 25%, Fiats 60%.

Any investment plan will be considered safe if it does not involve a reserve allocation of your daily needs. Remember the common word that you must be prepared to lose with the value of the investment.

I have owned almost 60% of the portfolio in stablecoins since Bitcoin's decline surpassed the first 40k and only a few % of what I spent the DCA way. I think it's a shame to leave even $10 fiat (investment portfolio) if we squander this bearish season.

"Unstable prices and a gradual decline in prices gets a large portion of bitcoin holders scared enough to sell off a large chunk of their assets. "

Thats what predator hodl'rs anticipate and prey on.
 
Its only the gamblers who jump back and forth between Bitcoin and fiat/altcoins who ask questions like this. "Smart" money always wants to be in fiat in the evening.  Smarter money seeks to hold hard assets especially Bitcoin, even when its a bad day in fiat terms. I've been in Bitcoin 10+ years; I puked a little when I sold a couple in 2020.  I'll never make that mistake again.

lets imagine you get min wage ($10/h *40 *40=$1600)
you keep $600 as fiat (~36%)
put $1k a month into stable. purely to invest into crypto..
for easy math numbers

where you want to be based on your numbers 2parts btc 3 parts altcoin
meaning 40% btc 60% alt(not sure why but you have your reasons for altcoin preference)

meaning of the $1k going to stable.. you are reserving $400 for bitcoin

now if you work out bitcoins "value window"
which by world costs is $15k -$95k
or by market measures is $17k-$70k

lets go with the first one. where it has a window of 80k gap. (15-95)
measure it out as a %

m.price: 15   19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95  
percent:100  95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 05 00


at a price of $21k each month i would put in 92%($368) of the $400 monthly investment money to buy btc..  and accumulate $31-631 a month in stable
depending on how much altcoin you bought and to take some opportunities if price went down

after all if the price went up $2k($23k) you will be angry that you missed out on the 10% lower price where you done nothing but just waited out and didnt buy in.
however if the price didnt go up but went down $2k($19k).. you would still be waiting out hoping for a lower price($15k) which may never come..

thus having a large stash of stable doing nothing. and when the eventual price rise does come.. wishing you bought in while low

so set some limits. and assign a %chance of up or down to decide how much each month you should invest
 EG what is the max you think the price will reach in the next 6 months. set up your own window and percentage it out into increments of how much of monthly amount you should invest per month into btc and how much you want to leave aside for the rare chance of "bottom"

EG if you think $30k is the top limit for next 6month window

15    16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30
100  94  88  82  76  69  62  55  48  41  34  27  21  14  07  00

that way at $21k price you are 62% btc 38% stable of the $400 btc allotment
you assigned

obviously at top of window it becomes 0% where you just stop investing most of your fiat

Not everyone is a believer in fiat, they will never keep it regardless of market conditions and bear markets are also subjective. I saw a wallet address from a user in this forum who hold bitcoin throughout last year November when bitcoin hit an all-time high and till now, the user has refused to sell his bitcoin and it amazed me that the wallet received his first transaction a few years ago when bitcoin was cheap, some people are determined to hold until bitcoin becomes so scarce that holding one will be difficult.

Personally, I feel its a bit too late to be holding into fiat, bitcoin price has found its support around the $18k range and despite the FED and their interest rate, it is still holding that position, it will be better if you convert them and buy bitcoin now that the price is down, you ware having them at a discount, we may or may not see the $13k people are anticipating.

Its best to start accumulating Bitcoin under 20000 dollars. Because Bitcoin's top was like 20000 in bull run before last one. So I see it as 'perfect bottom'. Anything under 20000 dollars is definitely steal (for buyer, not seller). My favourite is to hold my money on stable usd coins and buy at different levels around. Its best to at least put %50 of your wealth into Bitcoin in bear market if you wanna make huge gains in bull run.

lol! Clever.
That's actually the best course of action to do when you're waiting to get BTC in a lower price and try to DCA as fast as you can before the price bounce back up a few hundred dollars or a grand.
There a bit difference between holding a fiat and a stable coin thought they ultimately have similar value all the time, but fiat can't buy Bitcoin or any altcoin right away when you see a good entry point. With crypto's high volatility, it is possible to miss a good dip when you got a fiat converted into Btc or stablecoin.
And one last thing, I agree to both of you that keeping/saving a fiat won't save you even a few cents in the next coming years. I'd also suggest to buy properties and invest into real estate, it's safer than all of the investments in the market today. But if your risk appetite is in a tremendous level, then better invest in Bitcoin as well. 

i agree, USING stable coin as a tool to get into bitcoin has benefits of time. its faster than dowing a bank wire transfer out and then a wire dranswer in.

using it as a temporary tool for instance to move from one exchange to another for arbitrade opportunities..

but SAVING value long term in fiat or stable.. is not a good investment plan

..
when it comes tochooseing the %of the fiat lump sums to put to btc or altcoin. its simple..

rate each coin you are interested in based on their price position inside the window (mining cost low and max, your perceived low and max of 6 months)

EG lets take ethereum PoW vs ethereum PoS pre-post merge
PoW                      V
       ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||    30% risk
       0         900    1.8k     2.7k     3.6k

PoS                   V
       |||||||||||||||||!||||||||||||||||||    37% risk
       0         900    1.8k     2.7k     3.6k

BTC          V
       |||||||||||||||||!||||||||||||||||||    6% risk
       0    15    30    45    60    75    90
  
as you can see the price of ethereum is now in the orange mid risk zone. because ethereum has now degraded to a poor store of value algo where the possible-bottom is a few dollars because it costs only a few dollars a coin to create ethereum thus those staking can sell down to a few dollars and still profit
yep so far Eth staking has dropped the store of value minimum support from ~$900 to about $30

thus not a great time to be holding/investing in ethereum compared to other coins that are more in the green. like bitcoin and have a better value support

I always like to buy more Bitcoin during bear market which makes me have just 5% fiat left and 95% Bitcoin. When demand gets so high on me, I usually sell little Bitcoin to fulfill the need. I just can't hold too much fiat without wanting to buy Bitcoin. So it all depends on individual, people keep fait based on the numbers of need that may arise.

I think everyone has a different opinion in today's bear market but to keep it safe I think it's fiat.

First, when there is a bearish occurrence, some people feel panicked and they prefer to hold on to a stable coin to keep the asset down because they don't want a very big loss.
Second, they dare to buy as much Bitcoin as possible because this is the lowest price so they make large-scale purchases for the long term either in the DCA system or also Dips by doing this they have more confidence in Bitcoin which is one of the real investments.

Or create other portfolios by dividing a few percent by the allocation that is needed, I am general, but still fiat is needed for our daily use.

This is only my personal opinion, not a financial advice.

The amount that is safe to HODL in a bear market should be the same amount to HODL in a bull market, if not higher. If HODLing to you means you might end up selling during "trying times," I think you are investing more than you should. Or perhaps you've interchanged the old buy low sell high rule.

I don't agree that selling off assets are encouraged during bear market. Bear market is supposed to be for acquiring and bull market for selling. Unless badly needed and selling is the only choice left, it is really not a wise decision to sell when prices have fallen at least 70%.

Well it depends on one's holding capacity actually. I more of a risk taker and currently half of my money is in crypto.
50% of the amount is in crypto while the rest is in real estate and stocks and savings account.
But from a general perspective I think a person should be holding 30% in crypto, 30% in fiat and 40% in real estate and bonds.
This must be a better portfolio to hold on in a bear market.

Bitcoin bear market is not of much concern. It can end rapidly, it can last an unpredictable amount of time. More importantly, Bitcoin will recover from it, so it's only temporary and only a loss if you sell during the bear market. As for the recession the global economy is entering and the inflation of many fiat currencies, that's a more concerning thing. Fiat rarely gets better after bad times. The good thing is considered when fiat starts losing less value than it used to be losing, and people normally can't expect the value to grow or to recover to pre-recession times, even. So hodling fiat can be unsafe in these times, and it's better to spend it or to hodl Bitcoin, IMO.

Honestly I would not put that much on stablecoins, 45% seems a lot. I try to keep it as "income" and that's much better for me. That way I know when to invest and when to wait, and my income makes sure that I could invest a lot more if I want to, and not invest if I do not want to, makes a lot more sense.

That is what salary gives you, an unlimited amount (unless you are fired) of back to back investments, you could invest this month, but can invest in October too, then on November too, then December, so if the price is low you keep buying at lower prices. I understand putting a bit aside, so if I do not want to, I put it on stable, and invest double next month.