Bitcoin Forum

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

This does not change that history will repeats itself. If bitcoin price decrease, it can not go down more $10000 and this has nothing to do with the Russia and Ukraine war. The time is coming when the bear market would finally be over which would be followed by another bull run. Anything can happen this time, the price of bitcoin may decrease further, or maybe not, but we should prepare if it decreases. If any further significant decrease occur, this would significantly result to a bull run that may increase the price of bitcoin to over $30000 again.

Market conditions affect all assets similarly, this does not mean there is a correlation between assets or they need to be decoupled, it just means that they are reacting to the current market actions, negatively or positively.

I find this point ironic. Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets of the last decade, not just during low interest rates.

It is possible that bitcoin and the entire financial market will be pumped if this news happens, but there is no guarantee that bitcoin will stay high and the uptrend season will come immediately. You should remember that we are still in bear season and the bear cycle lasts 4 years, and another thing is that we entered a bear market before the war so the current drop in prices is only partially affected by the war, the main cause is still in the yearly bear cycle.


I think there is no relevance here, simply because when inflation occurs, risky assets will all be affected and decrease in price because of dumping.

The one thing you seams to forget. Market does not estimates present. It always tries to calcualate 1 year ahead. Its not that everything bad needs to stop and we have to have flow of good news to see a bottom. Bottom will be 1 year before first good news from economy. Same was in 2008. The biggest amount of bad news was right on the market bottom. So if now "macroeconomic view looks like trash" it doesnt mean we have to go anymore lower.

Also bitcoin reached ATH 3 month before SP500. Its possible that bitcoin will reach the bottom 3 months before SP500 which will reach the bottom 1 year before first good news from economy.

Also fiats are going down at a rate >10% per year so sooner or later fiat denominated assets needs to stop falling. Its not regular recession. Its stagflation. Like in 1970-1980.

This is only an assumption, the probability that it will happen is significant, but it is not a solid fact that should be counted on. The majority believe in the next halving and the bull run that will follow after that simply because that is the only thing that has a very clear point in the future in the sense that the halving will happen, but you should always be careful because no one can predict the future.

I also think that it is not realistic to expect that the price of BTC can go below $10k, but who thought that it would be this low today after it almost touched $70k? Being prepared for something completely unexpected is something that everyone should keep in mind, because that way there would be much less panic that often results in financial loss for most people who invest their money thinking that profit is assured.

As for the war, I would say that it affects everything, especially the markets in Europe, which suffer the most. The uncertainty caused by the war certainly affects the decisions of people who are less willing to make any risky investments, and when we talk about the EU area, it is about 500 million people who are generally people with considerable purchasing power. First they were hit by inflation, and then a bloody war broke out in their neighboring yard, which in any case is very bad for any business, unless you produce weapons and similar war supplies.

We'll probably look back on bitcoin surviving these times and realise how strong it actually is..

1. The only way I see the Russia-ukraine problem resolving itself fairly quickly is if at least one of those countries goes into civil war (it's more likely to be Russia due to the lack of democracy - but it's also likely Russia can remain stable with a bit of restructuring - or nothing).

2. Interest rates probably need to go down for everything bitcoin related to improve for a fast return to higher prices. That's unlikely to happen, a drop to 4% is predicted by 2022 but that's long enough away that we'll see more stagnation internationally.

This is a sign of strength for Bitcoin after all the events that is happening around the world and Bitcoin is able to maintain this price level 19k-20k after that Euro and Great British pounds crash but Bitcoin is able to absorb all the pressure (rate hikes) and too 20k -21k is the average price of Bitcoin's if using a 4 years simple moving average, and lastly coupled with the fact that 20k is previous all time highs , hence this results to a lot of consolidation and makes Bitcoin continue to move sideways in this zone.

Could be, but I guess if you are talking about prices going up and seeing a bull run? I doubt that, maybe we can go as high as $30k++. But we are still in the bearish trend, unless the news of the war ending will happen right after the bitcoin halving then yeah. But it makes me think now, if we will have a massive bull in 2024, this could be one news that will help it pushes to what we all have been imaging the price, $100k++

I definitely agree.  I'm already surprised at how strong it is.  I would have figured we'd be around $12K by now if I were making a prediction a year ago (which if you're in my slack group you would have known when I was contemplating betting people we'd hit $10K before $100K as we were touching all time highs). 

Looking back, we'll probably compare Bitcoin to the European countries' fiat currencies that fell like a stone during the current crisis.  Definitely impressive performance from Bitcoin given the state of things, but I think we have another 9 months or so of trouble before we're out of the woods.

Yes, because the time for investors to experience bear season in the crypto market has come, because during the pandemic that affected many assets in the countries didn't affect Bitcoin investors. I guess, this is a sign that bull season will be longer than this bear season that just completed 4 months and some days in the community for investors to continue holding until the price increase to $50k before they can sell to make a good profits.

Well we can only tell if the Russia-Ukraine is over, so far it has escalated. I'm not telling if it will have a big impact on the financial market when the war is over, but for sure, the market now is in recession.

I guess there are smart investors who are putting their money on bitcoin and make it as a store of value. But majority of investors are still waiting at the background and wanted to see if everything has settled down before they will decided to invest or not.

Hmm, as for me if we are talking about bitcoin, then we have seen the capitulation already when we go $17k, that is way below the precious all time high we hit in 2017.


Still 50/50 to me, if we suddenly hear the news that Putin surrendered, then maybe the price will go up. But if the war resolved through other means like Russia being invaded by coalition forces then the price could still tank despite the Russian government government.


For me, I'm not seeing bitcoin decoupling to any traditional market.

I remember that the only case in which Bitcoin united with all investments was when the Corona pandemic was announced, and after that all attempts to link the schemes are an attempt to twist the facts.

the best guess is that the Third World War is the only variable that will change the price sharply, other than that, I don't think we will see a bottom beyond 17 thousand dollars.

I have to say we have been here for long enough and it would be better if we could end up with something much bigger soon enough. It reached the peak ATH price last year around these days, which means it has been either going down, or not going up for the past 1 year, and that is a long enough period to stay low.

It is high time that we start climbing back up again and that would be great, but of course that would require us to rally and in order to do that we need everyone. It means there need to be something to hype, ETH merge was something to hype and people did not even care about that, so I do not know what we can do to rally everyone together for a bull run.

I really want this to happen as a cryptocurrency enthusiast but it is going to happen anytime possible???

Not really in the near future, even if you take the last bearish days the price hit rock bottom of $3000 and managed to hit 65k which no one really expected do BTC never stop giving the surprises which beyond our expectations.

#HODL

Might as well remove this scenario as it is close to impossible atm.
Russian - Ukrain war went silent for a few days and then boom another bomb dropped in Ukrainan soil. There's no chance for an "instant resolution" of this conflict.
We would not hope for Russia and Ukraine to make peace because we can see an opportunity for Btc to pump, but we should hope the conflict would end, because we do not know how close Putin is in using his nuclear weapon.

Yes this seems like a repeat of nov 2018. Basically extremely tight range. Most days it stays well within $1000 range from top to bottom. Very low volume.

The OI is actually going up. So it’s going to explode. However which way is the question. Best to play this with some options since it’s anyone’s guess where it will go.

In my persoective, the current situation simply shows how unpredictable this industry is. If we would base from the calendar and the past, there should already be an uprise pressure with market price of cryptos because of the season, but what happened is the other way around. Cryptos are prone from factors such as what we are experiencing right now wherein economic crisis is a problem to many countries around the globe which reflects as well in this industry. Whether it will go up before this year end or not, it would be surely hard to tell. The best thing we can do is to patiently wait and cope with market behavior.

Bitcoin really likes his range around 20k.  :D
Even bad inflation news from today have only caused a very temporary setback and now, we are even at higher prices compared to yesterday.
Next big news from regular markets will be Fed's announcement about rate hikes on November 1st.

My prediction is still bearish until end of the year with limited downside potential. On the other side, Bitcoin's recovery from today is bad news for bears...

Mostly seems correct, in sum total we go sideways but there is a wider debate on our negative or positive bias during this time.   Nobody wants us to break out this range downwards and go further down but it could apparently happen unless we do challenge properly to the upside again.  Right now its looking possible we fail to recover a prior uptrend, as we had already broke the main June recovery trend this might prove serious.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AI6lb.png

the bear market will definitely pass, it's impossible forever the market will continue to fall, if world conditions such as war,
inflation and some other things are no longer discussed then I'm sure good news will come and make the crypto market excited again,
we are in the accumulation phase meaning a lot of people want a low price under $20k, so we have to follow this path.

and still continues until this month. I can say the current state of Bitcoin is a test of patience for holders. Whoever holds fast will arrive at the goal. Those who are weak will fall in the middle of the road because they let go.
We can still gain valuable experience from the $20K hold and the price below, which will allow us to see how the cycle of Bitcoin moves. Instead of worrying about not increasing as expected, we should better focus on the portfolio.

It seems like bitcoin wants to make many investors, especially small investors, impatient for another bull run.
With bitcoin prices persisting in the $18k-$20k range, sooner or later, it will trigger boredom in people holding bitcoins and maybe they will sell bitcoins little by little.
And when their boredom has peaked, the price of bitcoin will start to rally, gradually break the high price, and eventually arrive at the latest ATH.
Maybe this month, market conditions will continue, so we must be more patient in waiting for the bitcoin price to rise.

It happened already long time ago. Before, where the interest rates are still low, many people are already treating btc as store of value even until today where the interest rates are now increasing. I still remember those days where btc price plunge down to $3k. I think non of us expected that.

What we only know is that it's possible for btc to go down right after a pump. $65k is also unexpected but now that we knew it was possible. People are not afraid to predict higher prices. The op only post two scenarios. That was too low and I think there are still more scenarios which can lead for btc to pump but for now, the consolidation for $20k might continue.

What percentage do you have confidence in the market revival in the next year? because as long as there aren't more big investors and traders who have a lot of capital to buy Bitcoin, then a large increase in size will also continue to be difficult to happen to Bitcoin even though there is so much good news born for Bitcoin from now on.
Because Bitcoin at this time not only requires good news and big speculation, but also requires people who are willing to buy in large quantities.

It looks like yes, my brother. This is a test of patience and October is already halfway through. Bitcoin is still the same as September. Boredom can be the cause of our destruction. He is the one who makes us stop walking towards the peak of our dreams. Trying to always be strong in dealing with situations and conditions is something that we must maintain at all times.


This picture represents the current situation of investors today. Don't give up. Bitcoin will make us smile happily one day.

Yeah, I don't think that is boredom, that is their decision to sell in the bear market and quit the investing or trading and look for other means to make money.

But for the majority of us, this is the perfect opportunity, bear market is really worrying for first timers because the price is not moving just like what we have been seeing in the last 4 months. But this is a good time to invest because the price of bitcoin is really cheap and affordable and then have the patience to just being a holder and wait for the next bull run.

I wouldn't be certain about the market being low for the rest of the year. I mean there is no guarantee that it will recover neither, so do not mistake what I am saying as we are about to go on a bull run, no. All I am saying is that it's unknown, and by the end of 2022 we could end up with either 20k or 50k and anything in between, it's all about believing what will happen.

This is why it's going to be something decent to invest right now, since there is a chance that it will grow bigger. That's why I think we should be accumulating right now, and make a profit, and whenever the time comes for it to grow, we will be ready for it.

Didn't realise it's been that long already, to be honest! And as mentioned above already it looks a lot like past periods, most noticeably Nov 2018 (talking about parallel calendar months).

And while back then I still psychologically thought of BTC to be in the $5k range, now I find myself more and more looking at BTC with a psychological floor of $10k (nothing to do with math or logic, only what I personally feel is a realistic range given the economic pain yet to come).

I think we'll see more such 4-6 months of sideways trading at various price levels... unfortunately lower than this for the next year.

Next year will be another big test for us, whether we set a new lowest low or all time low in this bear market or not, we will have to see.

Or maybe form a sideway trading for the $15k or less (lowest low then), in 2023. So still a long way to go for us. Lots of psychological test, but for those like you who have seen this in the past (2018), might just be routine because we know that something might be brewing for the next bull run. And as the saying goes, "patience is a virtue", and that holds in bitcoin's 4 year cycle.

My thoughts right now seem every market correlates to each other. Like if there's a huge dump on stocks, we are also experiencing it in the cryptocurrency market. So for me, the reason, for now, is the interest rate. We need also consider the post-covid effect now.
It's like a global effect, there no one is excluded from the current crisis that we are experiencing, even in which country you are framed, there is a crisis.

That's because we have seen a lot of stocks broker getting into crypto as well so they play both with their huge clients money .. not always correlating each other but that's the fact. You play both sides and accudentally the market responds become so similar.

We are living in uncertain future economics still , so yeah keep guessing .. any serious prediction even mathematically could still fail in the recent days.

There is no data to say that many stockbrokers are also getting into crypto, I know a lot of investors in the stock market but most of them don't get into crypto because they say it's a manipulative market, price fluctuations are too strong and they don't like it. In simple words, we can see that stocks or cryptocurrencies are considered as risk assets and both go against USD, and USD is very well protected by the Fed, so once there is bad news people will tend to sell risky assets to choose safe assets and now USD is a safe asset that can make a profit.

Bitcoin trends are unique, many facts that we can get if we look at price charts, for example 4 -year trends, namely when prices skyrocket or reach new ATH, the following year will fall out and this has happened at least 3 times, and now there is a unique facts that is the trend Every 4 months, I will learn this.

Maybe we call it not boredom but people who have waited a long time but still can't sell it can experience boredom.
Not everyone has a strong hand in holding bitcoin. Even though we have experienced seeing bitcoin's journey so far, it can still happen.
I also think the scenario will be similar to previous years but this year and next year before the halving will be different from the previous year.
But bitcoin will surely show its strength to be able to rise again from low prices to the next high price.

From the picture, I think we've also experienced it, whether we realize it or have forgotten it.
We must always keep in mind the goals and targets that we want to achieve in the future and if the current bitcoin is still the same as the previous months, that means we still have to be patient again.
Everything will surely end, and only those who can survive will benefit from it.
This situation will soon change and that's when we can make big profits again.

Wait what is that every 4 months trend ? what are we having in each 4 months because I don't see anything in related?
can you specify which months are those and from what factor that the price will climb in 120 days time?

if there is simpler explanation then best to help us out now.

I don't think he (@wonggoblog) will give you a more precise explanation for this because he only mentions about four months and doesn't mention which months are better and worse for Bitcoin. Even though there are still many people who don't think about what month is very good for Bitcoin right now, because what happened to Bitcoin during those four months is nothing to worry about. Because Bitcoin can also increase more in a not too long time as it did last year.

Right now we hit the lowest bitcoin volatlity since 2020. So pretty much any day now there is going to be an explosive move, however no idea which direction.

Everybody thinks it will go down to $15K, since everybody thinks this. The opposite will happen. Just like in November 2018 when everybody assumed that $6K was the bottom and it would go up after a long period of consolidation and the complete opposite happened.

I think most likely this move will happen sometime in November, so a couple more weeks.

yeah that's why I'm asking because Maybe we could gather information to what and when is the perfect time to invest  ;D

but surely there is no concrete proof of this  to be true as I have been in this forum for years now yet there are no such thing I read just from this thread only  ;D

Let's see, but I have to agree that when everyone is expecting the price to move on a positive direction, it move on the opposite. Similarly in 2021 wherein November we hit almost $70k and everyone is calling for 6 digits in December, after all it was the prediction of PlanB.

However, it moves on the opposite direction, the price plummeted after that and it is the bubble already. And now we are in a bear market.

That is common, the market is not ruled by people who chat around here or on twitter, it is ruled by people with money, would you chat on bitcointalk or twitter if you had tens of millions of dollars? You wouldn't, well Elon is exception to that.

This is why we do not get to hear from people who could actually change the market, people who get in the market and make a difference, because they do not like to post it online, that’s changing a bit, more and more new generation rich people do, but still old money doesn't do that. It means what you see are people who do not have power to change anything that "thinks" something will happen, while other whales end up doing the opposite.

I also think the current state of crypto is also the result of the endless wars between Russia and Ukraine. Two things are causing crypto investment to happen again. Russia wins with the global economic recovery happening, or the war stops. If these two countries are equally strong in terms of war strategy, and the war will continue. I think the global economic crisis continues. Because the global economic cycle stopped.

It could have a drastic effect on the world economy, so not only crypto market, but the rest of financial world is really reacting to it that's why investors are reluctant. So maybe after the war, we may see a eventual recovery for us.

But it could be next year though, I'm not seeing Putin stopping at this point as he is very aggressive in continuing with this war. So for me, I'm not expecting something big to happen till next year.

It could be like that mate, but with the stable price of crypto, especially bitcoin at the current price, it gives people the opportunity to invest in crypto and buy a lot of Bitcoin at the current price.
But if they are more concerned with preparing to meet their basic needs, if things get worse, they will not invest in crypto because survival is already making it difficult for them.
But it will not make rich people keep investing in crypto and not only in crypto, but they will also look for other sources that can add to their total wealth.
This global economic crisis doesn't seem like it will stop so we also have to prepare ourselves besides continuing to invest in crypto.