Bitcoin Forum

Why I am not seeing in this forum section any posts regarding technical analysis on TradingView for example for BTC/USD pair?

Yes there are indicators which we can stick to our chart, but most of them are "lagging" and a person doing the technicals can lead to a "leading" result if you know what I mean.


A lot of sentiment can be taken around from news and for sure there's the fundamental analysis but technicals are often leading the markets too.


Let me know if I have missed some weird forum rule not allowing speculative predictions on a chart from a screenshot.


With best regards, CryptoDor. BTC

Actually there are many, it's a speculation board like this. But most of the OP's aren't very consistent in updating threads. If you have enough time to pay attention, many price speculators join this thread^[2] and sometimes share the results of their analysis.

1. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5410763
2. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336

The speculation board has a lot ^{[ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0 ]}
try to dig research there and you will find out that there are too many of them.
Technical analysis is very common here --but there are some members here technical analysis is not enough, they need also a source of fundamental analysis which is a good combination of technical analysis.
You cannot predict the market with a technical analysis only.

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Because you are a newbie, it does not allow you to post images not unless --you paid a copper membership or at least you are a jr. member onward. Read this if you are new in the forum, ^{[ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1689727.0 ]}

So you actually believe that a regular user in the forum with only his/her laptop, and with limited capital can actually out-trade the market bots developed by some of the most experienced traders/smartest math-people in the world? Who also has a larger capital, and who has more access to more market information than plebs like us. Perhaps drawing lines on a chart will not work against that. 8)

It's probabky more effort than it's worth and fairly unnecessary.

There's less resources on learning to trade in this forum than there could be but it doesn't need too much putting into it to get something that works.

Also, anyone experienced in this sort of space will know people who treat trading like gambling and will take loans to go all in on positions - and that's never a winning strategy. Even if someone made a thread here where they gave calls and spent the first few posts giving instructions on how to manage capital, is everyone going to read it AND follow it or do you still have the chance to cause problematic behaviours?

For sure in Technical Analysis everything about the fundamental, basically the news events is represented there in the chart, But recently it seems like the News event is taking a lead and has become the market mover in recent days,  For instance the recent Binance and FTX saga that crashed the market to the current price right now is a typical example , unlike before news events can cause a spike in the price of an asset but does not change the overall direction.

those are the fundamentals that influence the market. A lot of speculative news is deliberately made and some bad news continues to be reported such as FTX bankruptcy etc.
But technical analysis remains the main one because the chart will never lie. Fundamentals will only follow the charts, two good combinations for trading namely technical and fundamental analysis.

If let's say that that person day-trades/swing-trades, but doesn't "gamble" all in on positions, but follows some good trading rules/strategies that he she learned from books and videos. Does he/she truly believe that he/she can out-trade those professional traders with their bots, and with their large amounts of capital? Plebs like us will lose all our profits and capital if we continue taking on active positions. 

At the present time, most of the technical analysis indicators do not work, for example, all moving averages have been broken during the past months, and therefore it has become useless to rely on them as points of support and resistance.
Therefore, publishing such analyzes is more waste of effort than benefit.

Personally i believe onchain and derivatives are a better signal for bitcoin than technical analysis. I'll try posting my analysis once i'm no longer a newbie noob lol

They are merely guides, that "may" help the "trader", but it isn't a crystal ball that can make you trade with 100% accuracy. If there was such an indicator, then why would the user share or boast about. He/she would keep it secret, and simply trade. The more traders that know/use of a profitable indicator, the effectiveness it has will go down because those traders would adjust and counter-adjust.

By that logic no one should be looking just for TA to make money with trading except few people on the top?
And they would be somehow successful most of the time?

If you are talking about high frequency trading then no, most of the people aren't playing that game against bots, but that's not really something people would be posting to forums any way because even if you would be working with bots their response time would be too low against well funded bots.

And when you talk about low to mid freq trading there's so much room to work with by common laptop. And if you are rich enough you could force confirmations that trigger bots by yourself. In fact i have seen a ton of market action with only reason seems to be to mess with bots.

Common people could be looking for different issues and different charts. There are so many different ways of doing TA and to choose what FA to combine it with it would be impossible to predict everything with some superbot or even with think tank that have more responsibility to their funders and take less risks then common trader.

It's about probability of working and even those probabilities change. When something goes different direction then predicted to, but it had a probability to go against prediction, it doesn't mean predictions doesn't work, people just interpret and simplify it like that. Markets usually follow similar cycles as it's mostly patterns on how humans behave in markets. That is not really exact science, it's just predictions on data we choose to play with.

If you're a pleb like us, you could remain to be hopeful, try to probably "get lucky" and make a profit large enough to start trading for money. But those who "get lucky" are very few, and those people are mostly the hardest workers, and the smartest traders.

By that logic, you can try to "get lucky", but plebs like us should also know when to accept to stop day trading, and start buying the DIP, and HODL.

Absolutely you should know when you when to stop, and it's not for everyone as it shouldn't and couldn't be. Reason because TA doesn't work for everyone is because trading is a zero sum game. It's just logically impossible for everyone to sell the top just because they follow the same "working" indicator. That's not how it works.

Just like it's impossible for everyone to buy at the right time and hodl, so you indeed can try to "get lucky" on that tactic too and hope this growth won't end. But you still might want to have an exit point where you take profits, because there's no such thing as infinite growth. And just taking profits when you think it's a right time for it is similar to low frequency trading.

Very unfortunate but it is too hard to deal with the volatility of the market. And I really agree that these TAs are getting useless from time to time which makes no reason for us to believe in others' TAs rather than our own.
Traders are not reliant on TA anymore but rather have luck and follow their instinct. Because even if we spend a lot of time in the market, checking the chart, etc... sadly it only confuses us about what we gonna do next. This will tell us that trading is really hard and the direction of the market is very unpredictable.

Obviously they big players are mostly looking at same things as educated "normal" laptop traders, but with very much faster response time, having customised bots grawling trough blockchain data, analysing news and rumors, trends and still they are mostly gambling with it, with an edge to people who don't have these tools in hand. Normie laptop traders eventually get this info too, and it's unlikely that they wouldn't gain from that too. They don't have to buy bottom or sell the top do do so.

Even if they have 52 % changes to win, trading is a game worth playing, just like the edge card counters get in back jack makes it worth their time even if they lose high % of the time. And unlike in black jack, you don't lose everything when you lose, so it's way more profitable then gambling.

All analysis is just possibilities and predictions of the outcome. At any point in time, those analyses were not 100 percent accurate especially when the market is manipulated. Tho its important to know those tools, at least you can verify those signals and you can check and adjust your positions.

There's no such thing about 100% precision with these tools or indicators which these traders do commonly use but just like the rest been saying that having these things is much more better rather

on making up some trades without any basis or any tools that you are looking into.This is really just pure gambling if you do just set out your position without having those analysis that had been made up.
This market doesnt always have the news which could move out the prices which means that most of the time you would really be relying on reading up charts with
those indicator and tools which would really be giving out that picture on what are the things you should done at least.