Bitcoin Forum

The gradual rise in the price of bitcoin as we started experiencing this January 2023 from around 17k to now 23k (as at when this thread was made), is been described by some traders as a false bull which everyone should be careful about, but then, I wonder how something we all have been expecting while approaching the year 2023 is now coming into play, yet some persons still feel it's a false bull, while some others are pulling in more money due to the bull signs of this January.  What do we think about this as a community here?

As for me, I believe profit in business comes with risk taking(calculative risk) whether long or short, all anyone should always hold to heart is don't risk more than you are ready to let go in the case of loss.

bulls and bears are declared 6months after the fact... meaning its a retro active term..
much like inflation and recession are only officially announced 6 months after the up or down.

however people dont have patience and so they want to shout bull and bear too quick. thus when they get it wrong they say that it was a false bull..

actual fact is they were too impatient and want to call out things before the defined terminology meets its criteria

thus its the callers, shouters, screamers. with impatience that are the trap/false declaration .. not the market

people shouting bull or bear the day they see a rise or fall are just idiots

There will always be people that will think that certain price movements are caused by manipulation or whatever theory they could think of, regardless of direction; and it's mostly voiced out by people who missed out on pumps, or bought heavily before dumps.

it's too early to say bullish has come, I think the movement at the beginning of the year is the initial pump and new enthusiasm in trading at the beginning of the year after the market always declines, stay careful when investing, all risks are borne by the individual,

Whatever it is, false bull or false breakout, doesn't matter specially for those who are continuing to accumulate, and specially looking for long term investments. TA can do as much for us, but there could be time that it might break.

And remember that we are around this price prior to the FTX collapse, so I will say that we should be where we are months ago. The real bull market should happen though after the bitcoin halving, so that is still very far. So just continue to monitor the price and adjust your investment pattern. Or better yet, do DCA if you really want to buy bitcoin and HODL.

There will be statements that were in favour as well as against the reality of the market. It is upto our understanding about the market, if we take it as bullish move we're positive about market. If the same is considered as a temporary move, then we should analyse further and one should not get into panic at any instance.

Whether the crypto is at the decline or on the bullish, we'll get opportunity to profit from the market variation. One need to keep himself active to book the profit. This let's the user enjoy criticism

What ratio of market movement have been met to declare a Bitcoin bull market, since the last bitcoin price direction cycle witnessed last is ba ear market which has consistently persisted over a period of 3-6 months in a row to make a complete an official Bitcoin bear market. What I can see in all this is just inpatient from bitcoin price, speculators who are just too quick to declare a market state so seeing that bitcoin touched $23,000 in the present time doesn't really mean much as long as the price has not persisted on an uptrend direction for a period of 3 -6 months to complete a full cycle.
What I will say about all this is that we should be more holistic in our analyzes and we should be ready to give some time before making any Bitcoin market predictions.

Easy, Bitcoin community is very impatient and wants to become rich overnight. So people think every new year must be a bullish year. Despite the fact that historically the cycles are tied to halvenings and large bull run start after them and explode around 1 year after the halvening.

People need to learn to manage their expectations. Assets that go only up and fast and always don't exist. Assets that consistently go up do it slowly. Assets that go up fast also go down fast. Or eventually stop going up fast. It's already a miracle that after 14 years Bitcoin still shows tremendous growth.

Never listen to anyone while doing trades in crypto market. Even if they are saying different things, what does your analysis says about the market movements?
We know we are still in a bear market because we haven't crossed the threshold of the resistance level. If we break the level, only then we can say that this is the indication towards the bull run. And as you mention that everyone was expecting the pump from the beginning of this year, what if the bears are thinking the same and trying to put you in a trap?
So the safe decision is to do your own analysis to come up with the best possible outcome and if you are really thinking that this is a bull run, then why not just wait for the market to cross the level and then invest?
Greed is bad and leads to emotional decision. Every pro knows that. It will be a very interesting battle between the bulls and the bears to watch. Let's see what happens.
https://i.postimg.cc/xCwZbd6J/4538139.jpg

One of the signs that reassures me is that no one knows the reason for the recent rise.

After several attempts to break 18K levels, we did it easily, which means that something has happened, but its details have not been published yet, which means that in order to remain above these levels, we need a confirmation signal by staying close to ~23k to ~28k which is something the price continues to do.

What will happen if we do not continue to this extent? Simply, we will return to the support level at 18K, and we may continue until March.
Geopolitical changes and the global economy will severely affect the coming months.

This.  With all the stuff that's going on around the world, we really can't say if the bull market is back.  If anything, we should be wary.  But if you guys bought the lows then just stay put and don't do anything.  To those who missed it and don't hold any, don't fomo and don't buy at resistance.  Big possibility you'll get trapped.  Just be patient as there's a whole year of buying opportunities coming.  

Then again if you're a pure 'hodler' you could just buy now and forget about it as it won't matter.

Edit:  How come there aren't any Chinese new year threads anymore?  Those were fun.

It's okay to be bullish just be wary and remember that every time market could go down again so your sell order price is already ready. But this only applies if you are trading regularly. Holders doesnt bother for such increase or decrease later on.

Until now, many people still don't understand the volatile nature of the market, and they got crazy finding reasons why the price was pumped or why it dump.  Why can't just think it was the nature of the market, not a manipulation? Honestly, it was not really the time to see the market in Bullrun, we can't expect such a fast recovery at all. The price, of course, will change because of the changing in demand and supply. People are buying which naturally increases the price, yet it was temporary.

There is always risk and many are still hesitant because they are afraid to make mistakes especially when they will buy during this pump because this can still be a trap not unless there’s already a confirmation about the up trend. There are ways to make profit out of this and it takes a lot discipline. Its good to be more positive about the trend, just stay within your limit and be more realistic, don’t be greedy when it comes to profit taking.

I'm curious how they can claim that the quick spike in the price of Bitcoin is false bull. The abrupt ups and downs in price are normal because everyone is aware of how volatile the cryptocurrency market is. We are unable to say with certainty whether we are currently in the bear season or the bull season. In any case, let's enjoy the benefits of our current profit.

Those who say that think too much in the short term. If you're going to hold the bitcoin you have until 2030 at least, you're not thinking about whether it's going to go back down to 17,000 in the next couple of weeks. I think we will end this year in positive territory and after the next halving we will reach at least 100,000. As a scarce resource, it is worth accumulating and forgetting about short-termism.

It is too early to tell either way, however I suppose those which claim this is a fake bull run or a bull trap do it for several reasons, the first one is the bull market is not really expected to come until much later so they think the timing is wrong, another reason is simply about probabilities, as there are many more fake bull runs than real ones, so they simply estimate this growth in the price is temporary and at some point the bears will retake control of the market.

I think many are expecting this to be like April 2019. Where we did bottom and rallied non stop for a couple months before touching $12K and then the mini bubble popped again.

Hence why many think we are in an echo bubble. Basically when we breach $30K, many will buy because they will think ATH is near and the bubble will burst again before completing a year or two later.

https://i.imgur.com/8PtXP4g.png

I think because the chart tells something. In the daily chart, it already says it can't sustain this sudden rise. It has to really dump to give room for another week of a green candle. Or it could pump again up to $25k-$30k before the dump which means another few weeks of waiting again for the bulls to come.

One trader said on his youtube that it's not a healthy market when the price goes up all the way for 2 weeks. This is based on his experience.

For me the increase that occurred at the beginning of this year in January was not a fake bull because it was based on an increasing number of requests in the market so that Bitcoin increased slowly. Fake bulls can indeed be created by a group of people but I don't think that it is being created now because I think the increase now is a very clear and genuine thing from the demand that is in the market.

If indeed the Bitcoin boom thing is now to be dismissed as a sham, why is the price drop always considered to be so genuine? Meanwhile, decreases and increases always occur in the market over time every year. So it wouldn't be logical for upgrades to be seen as fake now even though some people already think it's fake, but I don't care what other people think of this.

Let everyone what they want to believe and speak for the predictions that they have. We all are not the same if it's about the market, if there are people that think this is just a bull trap then let them believe with that because there's a possibility that they're also correct.

And at the same time, let them allow us to believe what we want to believe that the bear market was already done and everything is according to the pattern based from the historical movements of bitcoin. False bull, bull trap or what they call it, it is still the market to decide and will show us what we really are at.

By now some people supposed to know the nature of the market, it's obvious that the market of cryptocurrency get accelerated due to the demand and supply, and sometimes an information triggers the fast movement of increment in Bitcoin, so it's not a wonder. Bitcoin increase because of the gravity of demands applies in the market sphere.

People are expecting bitcoin to go up this year because we had a bloody year. But as you know, bitcoin is unpredictable, and it goes up and down without reason, so a spike will definitely make people suspicious, you can't blame people who are doubting, this is a normal investor reaction.

Bitcoin has rallied to $23k, but there is nothing to confirm that we are past the bear season and entering the bull season. So there is nothing wrong with people doubting whether this is a fake bull run or not.

This is a good situation for us because we are seeing a reversal of bitcoin that could take bitcoin to a higher price than before. The year 2023 can give investors confidence to keep investing in bitcoin because there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin will increase very high before or after the halving later.

But this condition still can't be called a bull run because the price is still far below the last ATH price but it can be called a reversal. I like it better that way because that's what's happening now. But we must be aware of the current situation because no one knows where bitcoin will go.

A lot of people say that, and maybe we think so too, I think it's fair for people to say that this is a fake fortress because of the careful sense of financial management when investing in bitcoin, and maybe it's because they have experienced it in the past year and advised others to be careful, but bulltrap news could be made to hold back market movements because they entered the market too late.
There are two possible mindsets here, but for long-term investors I don't think it will affect any decisions, except for investors who want to be able to buy during a correction to continue their DCA.

For short term traders perhaps to be more careful.

We cannot those people who thinks of such thing simply because we came from a struggling market behavior on the past few months. Also, maybe there is just no concrete reason for the increase which somehow gives doubt to investors on the increase we are currently seeing. Well, I do think that this is just a spike with the market prices resulted from different factors. Still, I am more expecting of a huge increase on market prices next year. Assumption because of what happened in the past and since factors which caused the market price to fall is still existing. There are chances for sudden pumps but there is no certainty of a continuous one.

It makes sense to your opinion, why when bitcoin rises to be considered a bull fake while when Bitcoin has decreased not considered a fake bull.
I analyze Elliot Wave on Weekly (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5434401.msg61581467#msg61581467) and there is a probability of bitcoin still to $ 25k - $ 30k to finish Wave 4 and dump again to complete Wave 5. If according to the Bitcoin scenario it will still rise until the early February.

Investors are just impatient with their invest and are eager to make profit that is why they will say bitcoin has hit the bull market,forgetting that they are not speculators and don't understand the cyclic movement of bitcoin. There are reasons for the recent rise in price which we should put into consideration

Relaxing and hodling for long will bring for benefits to investors who are patient and understands the market. Don't be deceive by the little pump in the price of bitcoin to 23k and feel its time to sell as you might regret your actions when the real bull market comes after bitcoin halving.

I think there is nothing like impatient here because the coins belongs to the actual person or investor so i believe he or she has the leverage to sell off whenever he dims fit. For me i think no ones truly understands the volatility of bitcoin and all these talks about fake bull market are just human speculations which is common especially when you have some funds invested in bitcoin. If you come to look at the whole thing,  i believe the major speculation on the crypto space are really done and said by major investors saying this words as a means of telling themselves that they can soon sell or not yet time. And again if i bought bitcoin in the price of 15k and sold now thats it 23k, i feel am the one who is going to bear the pain of selling now, when Another ATH is reached but no one actually knows when or how its going to happen. Its just like the coming of Christ  ;D it might be this year or next who knows.

But i feel or speculates that the facts about the bitcoin halving is what is going on now currently with bitcoin. I believe bitcoin is just in the phase of building momentum for the big bull run so everyone should just choose wise wisely what they have to do with their coins .

During the days of price pumping, there is no incident happened connected to bitcoin. This is why people find this growth to be real one. As there is no reason, some connected the fashion show in which El Salvador representative came with a Bitcoin sign. As said the bounce have given hope to the investors as well as gives peace of mind for the people who have been holding for much longer time period.

It could be described as a relief rally, relief from the continual downtrend we had prior.    Just not selling all the time and the continual negative momentum, that cessation could result in a bounce in price for sure.   Not sure I would call that false exactly, its a reasonable effect seen many times over.  The question is how much of this positive mood and gains last over months not just weeks.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AEJ3m.png
I wanted to look at the origins in this area, over 2 years back now.  The highs of the past summer might prove more important first of all, with a 200 week and 50 week average colliding around 25k it seems possible caution is the best approach.   The actual average isnt the resistance more of a red flag of a turn around, 25 or 27k I think could be the top of this move.  Overall I think we do ok so long as any pullback isnt too harsh, the selloff can be a positive to flush out sellers.
  Overall I dont find the move fake but unproven till we pass that retest or pullback however you might phrase it.

It's a relief rally for sure imo. But just like 2019 a relief rally can retrace most of the downside move, all the way to $50K, if it happened soon enough it'd still be a relief rally.

Nobody wanted to really acknowledge that going from $3.2K to $14K was a relief rally, but when we came back to norm around $6K it became pretty clear.

Also depends on your definition of relief rally I guess. For me it's simply just a rally that won't achieve a new all time high.

Yes, because there is no bull run yet but what we experienced is only just a small recovery. A false bull run is when the bull run didn't lasted for a long time but I don't think someone is doing that on purpose for others to lose after they buy more due to much excitement. You are right that people who thinks of it has their own reason.

If only there is no upcoming halving, I think the views of those people will change. They have nothing to wait for which are more guaranteed so they only hope for the best at any moment. It's sad to think that there are more bears than on bulls but I think it happens for a reason. Just like in gambling there's also more losers than winners.

Due to the market's four-year cycle, the bullish market was not typically anticipated to occur now. I believe this is why some people believed the current rise in the price of Bitcoin to be false, but as the market becomes more conscious, certain aspects of the market will change.

This development is a welcome development and a very favourable one for bitcoin investors even though the perceived bull market return have not left its circle time frame to be declared as a bull movement return.

But from the look of things, in the first quarter and early
second quarter of the year 2023.
we can be sure to be able to accurately declare whether or not we are in a bull market or bear market but at this point, we are still at recovery phase with a lot of pull back to look out for as the price struggle to gain it bullish traction.

What's made up of the crypto market is the upwards and downward movement of its price. The crypto market is volatile, and we expect to see this kind of movement in the price of bitcoin from time to time until the bull run starts.

Given that the current increase of $23k leaves us unsure of how high it can go, it will be premature to label this type of price movement as a bull market.

I've had bitcoin as a long-term objective, and I only recently realized that the recent price spike marked the beginning of bitcoin's recovery

It's Okay, I was just wondering how fake this bull is after all this January it has been in bull phase. I just believe that this increase is very reasonable, but bitcoin only got this reaction too late after briefly down to $15K. In fact I've seen that $20K has held, and now I'm even more confident that $25K will be hit soon either through the rest of January or in February.

I just want to enjoy this hike without worrying too much about what's next. Just invest and accumulate as much as you can afford, it will get better in the long term. Then ignore people's assumptions.

Actually not from a fake bull run but a recovery move from all year lows late last year, btc price has increased significantly in january but after a correction perhaps the $20k area will hold and hope never to return to this year's lows.

The predictions and assumptions of other people cannot be used as a guideline for analysis, so other people are free to argue according to their skills but we remain focused on our investments and increase investment assets before the bullish will really come in the future.

False bull run or not it's still a good thing that it was able to break resistance on the $23k and that's a good feat for Bitcoin. Many believe that it will be 2024 or 2025 would be the great year for cryptocurrency since everyone is anticipating the halving. Bull run starts to accumulate a year before the halving so 2023 is accumulation phase.

Bull traps or bear traps which it isnt something that very surprising condition here on crypto space whether you are dealing with Bitcoin or other altcoins in the market which it is really just the typical

moments or conditions which you would be able to face on.One of the hardest thing on dealing up with a speculative market on which you dont know on where would be the reversal of the price
specially when its moving sideways on which there's no way that you could be able to identify out on where it would be heading and this what makes things even
more challenging.

It's not a false bull or bull trap, as the tendency is already lasting for a whole month, and probably it will. I believe if it were a trap it wouldn't have lasted for longer than one week. Bitcoin is retaking its previous position from last year, before the time seasonal holidays started, that is usually when people cashout their funds to travel and buy gifts, consequently crashing BTC. However, there can be bull traps soon on Bitcoin's way towards superior price ranges, such as 40,000$ and 50,000$.

It's obvious that this is not a bull trap, this has been ongoing for quite sometime now and probably will continue till next month. And for those who have thought that this is a bear trap, they could have lost some money waiting for the price to decline, in my opinion.

And yeah maybe as we go to this crazy runs in the bear market, I'm also seeing that once we touch $40k-$50k there could be a huge correction. Probably the last one is this bear market before we enter next year for the block halving and then the real bull run. So we shall see.

People who think this is a false bull are spreading FUD and thats not good for the market. It's going up, let it go up and be good, why try to stop it one way or another? I mean I understand that you are afraid, but if you are afraid that this is a false bull and not a real bull run start, then keep it to yourself.

If you keep it to yourself then if it's a false bull then you would be right, and if it's not then it will go up and profit us all, and meanwhile you would not be trying to convince others of getting out because it's a false one. I honestly expect people to help bitcoin go up, but see too many people end up being terrible as it is right now and not a good method.

No fake bull 4-year cycle has bottomed and this was the rally of people who knew this and were ignoring the news events, which let’s face it, might as well be called the manipulation events. Bitcoin is bigger than the scammers and fake businessmen trying to get rich from it. Ignore the noise and watch the 4-year cycle. At this point it should be so fucking obvious to anyone who has been here any significant time that if you’re still losing money trading you have only your greed to blame.

False bull sounds out of place, maybe too clichéd too ::)
But based on market structure the current trading range of bitcoin could be classified as a pull back trying to create a new lower high before a lower low and down it goes again... but should price keep going up breaking ~$25k price, then it's safe to say bitcoin is back on a bullish trend!
But for now fingers crossed hope the momentum doesn't fade any time soon to allow price break these psychological price barriers.

Or people who think they are experts and can predict the price. Most of these people are not great at what they do and they just shout out random things instead of what is happening. You have got the people who just state the obvious like what is happening now and you got the others that just go and predict something opposite to what is happening now. That is usually the predictions people make without any insight.

And the most money is probably made by taking a position during these 6 months before the market officially shows that we've been in a bull/bear market, so you have to gamble nontheless if you want to maximize your gains (which of course means maximizing risk too, but that's part of the game).

TA can help, but I do agree that there are no experts here, if we did then they should be millionaires by now. It's all wild and educated guess and there are just speculators who might hit their predictions right, but for sure there are only a few of them, but still it's not a exact math.

And most of the time if their are a lot who predicted this X price in the coming months, usually the market goes on the opposite direction and that's why prediction is very hard, it will go on the other side when you least expected of it. So this is like a game that is hard to predict and it's going to be a hit or miss to us.

Even if it is a trap, people that invested at $16000 are gaining now, the price would have to reduce back before another unrealised loss. The price of bitcoin may fall below $20000 again, but why should people call it a trap? Anyone that want to invest when the price of bitcoin is significantly low like this time and do not want any unrealised loss should just never invest. Some people do not want to think that $100000 is possible by next year or next two years, they are only talking about bull trap when the price of bitcoin is even still low.

And that's why we don't have to believe other people's opinions. We do our own analysis to determine when it's time to trade. Most people don't want to analyze themselves but want to know the results of other people's analysis, even though it's not necessarily true.

People who share their predictions on social media can provide us with more clues because there must be something different from the results of the analysis we did. So if you get analysis results from social media, you should find out why they can analyze like that because you can get more clues from the results of their analysis.

Yup I think a lot of people are getting concerned with stuff that they shouldn't get concerned about.  People should just ask themselves how they could trade the recent move and make a little bit of something on the side.  Just trade the move and set up your stop loss.  For all we know BTC could rise up to 30k before going back down again, which could make for a good short on the way down and make a little more something something.  

One thing almost everyone in the crypto community knew that the bull market would begin in 2024. Bitcoin's 4 year cycle indicates that too. But when the market started to grow in early 2023, most of the crypto community was a bit confused. Is it really a bull run? or may be a little positive sign. But the current market is definitely back to a good position from where it was stay. The current BTC price is now around $23000 and one thing to note is that it is not touching $24000 thousand. Due to which the market is still in a recovery situation. So investment should be done with caution.

So far the 4 year cycle has never changed so keep watching the market in the middle of the year and the end of the year, very volatile price movements this will doubt some investors because they have a different analysis ahead of the 4 year cycle, but for certainty we will wait for the end of year price position and i believe 4 years will happen to reach new ATH price.

Bitcoin has found strength again and seen bullish signals earlier this year. If that expression is considered as false bullish is also normal because the whole market has been falling for quite a long time, panic are still there. I think this up move is very promising but it hasn't convinced me yet, so I will wait for more bitcoin price at the end of the month.

Four years if you count from the ATH that Bitcoin has ever achieved, then it is likely that there will be another big increase in price next year. But if you calculate from the previous price decline, it means that there is a possibility for ATH to occur again in 2025 and monitoring prices continuously at this time is the right thing to do, especially for those who want to sell at a higher price than now. And let's hope that before this month is over, Bitcoin can pass the price of $24K.

Most people will say that the obvious bull run started are those people who missed the train still won't ride, lol.
But, we can't blame them. They have their own perspective and opinion. For me, what happened in the last few months of the year 2022, was very sideways for Bitcoin, and at the start of 2023, we saw a huge move for Bitcoin started to break $20,000, and now Bitcoin is already above $23,000.

Yes let's keep our fingers crossed watching to see which direction and outcome bitcoin will be in the coming week/months before declaring a cycle, must people speculate more lows and fewer highs, but ultimately Bitcoin does not follow any pattern consistently and things change quickly with Bitcoin most especially when the dices for that change and the matric are there to make it happen. But expecting lower could be a little out of proportion since the price has indicated a line pattern that points to bitcoin's total departures from the low zone when Bitcoin crossed the 20k price region before heading to the current $23k+ price at the moment.

I made a post in Bitcoin might reach $30,000 in the first half of 2023 and $50,000 in the second (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5437076.0) over here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5437076.msg61678343#msg61678343) that also concludes that this rise is probably a ploy to attract retail investors before another catastrophe. The logic of that thread is sound in a world without manipulation and high power influence. We aren't in that world however. It would not make sense for a steady increase over the entirety of a year as it would mean a very positive outcome for retail investors. Based on history, it would make more sense to ploy in retail investors over a period of time, destroy their confidence and their games, then explode suddenly over a short period of months until the halving and onward. I am no expert, but it definitely seems more likely than a steady increase. I am looking forward to seeing how things play out and I do hope that the recent decline to $15k was not the last buying opportunity!

still early to say either this is Bull run or Bull trap mate because we have seen  something like this before but after a strong growth ? yet it dumped and there are many who had been trapped inside .
but of course with this shows of force from Bitcoin supporters now, we can still have big faith that this is a legit bull run.
and also calling this as false bull is an overstatement , because there is no concrete proof that had been showing this claim.

Whatever it is, whether it is a fake Bullrun or not, at least we see the price of Bitcoin increasing which I think was satisfying enough that we don't have t lose our faith but rather make it strong. I was expecting this kind of market sentiment after bear season, short pumps can happen. But we never expect that the market had already recovered, we are just about to start and accumulation seems growing which triggers the price surge as well. We will wait until the 2nd quarter, if the momentum keeps on - that can be going to be bullish.

The actual bull run hasn't happened yet, but I also agree that this is not a trap, it's a normal market movement. Bitcoin can neither fall forever nor rise forever, it is always in motion, and that is what is happening. Regardless if it's a trap or not, but with the price increase, congratulations to those who believed and bought bitcoin for $16k.

Now Bitcoin is starting to correct again after yesterday it had increased and is approaching the $24K price range, but those who had bought Bitcoin at the $16K price range are still very lucky if they sell now because the Bitcoin price is still above $23K now and this is clearly not a trap or the like. But what is happening now is a normal thing that happens very often in the market every year, except last year where Bitcoin has decreased more than increased.

The people who worry about their money thinks and tries to interpret things through various aspects. This is the reason for which they are claiming this rise as a false bullish market. I completely understand their sentiments, but they also need to understand the resistance that Bitcoin is currently facing. We are the ones for which the price of the coin fluctuates, so yes for that reason if we say bullish to the current rise, then definitely we are missing out the bigger profit from this rise. I would rather say not to waste the opportunity and hold till Bitcoins reaches new all time high.

I don't see a correction because when I look at the price, it was still $23k the same with yesterday. Maybe what happened is just a tiny decline. It's not bothering at all but can be good for those who are into short-term trading/investing. If they can utilize even the tiniest dip then they can also pull out some profits.

When someone buys at the dip and then sell when the price rises for profits, I don't consider that as a luck but that happens for a reason. Luck is something unexpected to happen and mostly felt when we are playing a gambling inside a casino. An increase that we felt lately, isn't something that occurs often and that is why many are eager to take advantage of it by selling.

Trade is really like gambling now. Bitcoin has been rising suddenly since the beginning of the year. Some coins, like aptos, are also pumping up. After such a prolonged fall, any rise seems strange. But what alarms me is that there is no volume right now during the rise. This could be indicative of a bull trap.

Ironically the longer a trend goes uninterrupted and untested the more false it might be in its dynamics.  A normal bullish trend continues with strength in its stride despite many wounds and swords stuck in its side thats why its called a bull it has an stoppable strength to its character.   To go only up can become quite suspect.   Right now we are not really at that point, its a very good rise by BTC standards mostly understandable by the amount of time and size movement we fell prior.

I disagree a bull run can be stopped if we were in a bull run when the ftx scandal happened do you think that investors and whales would have ignored that and continue to pour money into the market? I think they would be more likely to sell because of the panic that it caused. A bull run is not unstoppable and all past bull runs have been stopped. The same for a bear market if a big event happens that is positive it would stop a bear market from progressing.

Certainly not one of the best phrases I've become accustomed to; bull trap feels more elegant and fakeout more snazzy. False bull sounds just a bit like someone trying too hard (even if I'm sure it's a common phrase).

I'm not new to the idea of every rally being called a trap though (and conversely, every pullback a death spiral).

I wonder why people who always emphasis on such point that Bitcoin have come to stay and the bullish has taken over the market and the bearish also has gone from the market of cryptocurrency. I believe that Bitcoin still have along way to conclude on the price it will take to indicate that it's out of bearish

There is always a risk of investing that involves money in the process of carrying out and that's why one must understand before getting involved in any form of investment, although people say if one is willing to take risks, then the chances of success are far greater. At least we often listen to this advice, but in my opinion someone should have the option to analyze these risks, even including bitcoin investments that have proven to be good in the long term or short term.

There is no big worry about the current market reaction, although the possibility of a fake stronghold that makes bitcoin has increased, if you pay attention to the long process that bitcoin has gone through, there are many roles involved when the price starts to recover and gradually increases, this relationship is not can be studied in the form of a reference or four-year cycle relationship is the big name of the gradual recovery process towards more stable prices.

In the economic concept, goods increase as a result of demand and supply, although this cannot be calculated whether or not this occurs in bitcoin, scarcity, choice and decision making usually apply. There is hope for bitcoin this year, before heading to the next ATH.

The role of risk is always involved in every decision that is taken, the next question is how ready is someone to take risks, if bitcoin returns to a severe correction stage or towards a more severe negative trend?
This answer can be answered if one understands the bitcoin cycle.

drops to 22k once again , and yeah I know this will stays this way for at least another week or more? before finally reaching 25k.

we already see it happening that bitcoin or the market is in Bull running but yeah there will be more of this scenario so be ready for this to happen.

I'll keep mine and will be happy seeing the price growing in the coming days.

Many people think that the increase in bitcoin is a temporary pump to make investors continue to buy, but I think that the current increase in bitcoin is a small thing because in the future it will continue to increase, the biggest factor that will make the price continue to increase is the number of users who have increased, the fact The latest is that more and more countries are legalizing bitcoin and a significant increase has occurred in Africa.

Regardless, we have seen this fake breakout in the past and sometimes it's not as we have thought it is. Now the run seems to be real, last 24 hours, we reaches $23,500 although another correction, it the line of 2%-3%. But the price didn't go down that much, so the bulls has the control of the market and if what you say is true that adoption is getting bigger specially in continent such as Africa, then it could still fuel the bull run that we have seen since the start of this month.

It was a pump as the price went from $15k to $23k, the temporary high that bitcoin could reach yesterday. But as for the future price potential, it will surely be able to surpass the last ATH price and that will be our biggest advantage at that time. The current rise in bitcoin is indeed modest but this is a good thing because it provides proof to the people who half believe in bitcoin that it will surely rise again at the right time. And even if it is ultimately a fake bull run that bitcoin goes through, it doesn't matter because the price of bitcoin is sure to see a rapid rise in the future.

So far the movement of Bitcoin is still very good and is still in a small bull market, we believe this is not a trap from a bull market, until now the price of Bitcoin is in the area of $ 22.8k, making us happy by ending the month of January above $ 20k and above , The price of Bitcoin at the moment gives good news for longtime holders who fully trust, those who buy in the $ 16k price range I think the current state of the market and being at the current Graphic point is still profitable for them.

The target of people investing is of course studying the market charts and waiting for a decline to buy, they will continue to hold back until they see the movement of the Bitcoin price chart touching a higher value, those who had bought below the Bitcoin price which was $20k-$16k yesterday, of course this still giving profit on the selling, we think bull's movement will continue although only sloping with small bulls. We say this is a small bull market and not a bull market trap, the movement of the Bitcoin Chart will continue as it is, it does not always go down and it does not go up all the time, we take advantage of this good situation to hold Bitcoin.

I think it will definitely be something that gives everyone some hope, it's not going to be easy, but it's going to be something that will take just a bit of time. I know that it's going to be a bit of a decent situation where I think it will take a bit of a time, but it's going to end up with a good amount of profit in the long run. I think small bulls do not matter because it's going to be pretty wild and pretty entertaining and pretty good.

I just think that we could end up with something that could be pretty good, it's just about the fact that we need to do something much better, and for that to work we need to just wait and hold so that we can profit when it goes up, if not then we had whole 2022 like that so it's fine.

it is natural that Bitcoin will be legalized every year in new countries to make transactions easier to do, but the price of Bitcoin cannot be determined from that alone because there are many other factors that you can see.

Can you explain?

You think we will not see the $70,000 price again? (at least until the halvinag in 24).

I think, this is a sign to all long term investors and short term investors to know that this year 2023 will be more better than last year 2022, because Bitcoin price started displaying by increasing from $17,000 to $23,000 in the month of January. Based on what investors are experiencing from the crypto market few weeks ago show that bullish market is very close to investors and it will be favourable for investors to prepare well so that no one will Miss the opportunity when the price hit higher. The opportunity to buy Bitcoin and hold is still on which investors can still increase their capital by buy more of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for future purpose.

I'm sure that the current rising price is due to positive sentiment from the many companies that are serious about making bitcoin an asset or investment, moreover big campaigns from top exchanges like crypto.com, coinbase and so on so that new users continue to grow, besides that whales of course have interests to keep bitcoin able to continue to rise or recover in the current year.

Just recently browse a random message on the telegram group that I join about this same topic. One picture caught attention that is worth sharing in time like this. I believe false bulls depends on the time frame we are looking at because Bitcoin is still in the bull run base on the general overview of the price if we look at the chart since the beginning and not zoom in to the current year alone.


https://i.imgur.com/vra0U1G.jpg

If it is a bull trap, it may only be short-lived, but so far, bitcoin is showing signs of continuing to rise, and this bull run has lasted for almost a month, bitcoin is up nearly 40%, so it is impossible not to call this is a trap. Everything is questionable, we can't say it's a trap and there's no sign of a bull season coming while we're a long way from the halving.
I'm also being very careful, at first, I thought it was just a trap, but what's happening doesn't look like a trap. It's hard to know what state the market is in.

Does that mean we will soon see another rally in the bitcoin price, as shown in the picture? If this is true, we must prepare ourselves to take advantage of the moment to act. But the bull run may not come this year because the price needs to be increased again to close to the previous ATH price. And while it was close to the previous ATH, the bitcoin price may take a break while waiting for another good moment to start a real rally. This will be interesting as we don't know the next ATH price.

From the company side, they have adopted Bitcoin, and some of them have made investments and kept it as an asset, this is good for Bitcoin and is one of the factors that has caused it to rise, apart from that, some people have started investing in bitcoin, from here you can see demand and Bitcoin supply is getting better and causing a rise in Bitcoin price even though it has a reasonable correction, we think this is the beginning of Bitcoin recovery.

I would not call bitcoin's price increase from $15k to $23k a false bull. That was an increase of 53% or over $200 billion that went into bitcoin. But maybe people are used to the previous bitcoin bull runs and will only call a bull run when it increased to 1,000% or more. So I'll just call bitcoin's previous increase in price a mini bull run but that was not fake. Can we also call bitcoin's previous bull run at $68k fake because it gradually went down to as low as $15k last year? It's just normal that the market goes up and down. A big increase in value means a big correction later since not all investors are looking for long-term holds. There are also investors that are looking for profit and will sell their stake anytime when profits are good enough for them.

People would be pertaining on a short span of time and wont really be tending to look back on where we had started to make out some recovery but its true that 15k to 23k isnt something that could be called as a

fake out considering on how far we've been able to moved out then we can say that it is really gradually making it some recovery which we are all really that hoping after having such decline.False bull or not
on which these chances and tendencies for it to happen isnt something that we could really be able to predict on.

This is why risk management is really that crucial and very important when it comes to your entry and exit points of this market.

Positive reaction to the weekly average again keeps the bullish story alive.    The larger issue is the resistance overhead to deal with but I dont think BTC can be called negative at this moment.

A trade I follow recently was commentating on another chart, I believe he said when 50 day rises above the 200 day it can be a moment of indecision.  In that this period is not especially tradable, we still have the 50 day below 200 so we might be approaching the uncertain area is how I interpret that.  It still doesnt make it a false bull, alot of price action good or bad is not always easy to read for now I have to view BTC as acting positively.  I believe over the rest of the year it wont all be clear weather but thats something to tackle as it happens.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AEkMo.png
double test, resolved up.   Possibly consider caution if we are not beating that recent prior high 23962

Bulls and bears are commonplace and we shouldn't be too bothered by it, the most important thing right now is to keep buying so that when the price goes up we can get a profit, successful people won't think and analyze too much, let other people be busy for analysis but we busy to buy, when the price rises, the analyst only gets praise that the analysis is correct, but those of us who buy get profit.

What you said about bulls and bears is indeed commonplace, but in fact bull and bear will greatly affect a person mentality to trade,  buy without analysis is stupid in my opinion as well as being busy analyzing but not buying of course it's just talk blank, I personally may disagree a little with what you say about Successful People are Busy Buying , because basically many of them are successful in making profits after they have managed to analyze the market well so far, besides that if you continue to buy without analysis and just following your passion, you can be sure that losses will befall you because sometimes we don't know where the price will go down and when we think the price has reached the lowest point even though the decline continues and eventually our money will be stuck at that price.

actually bullrun or not? what matter most in my part is that I am already winning here and so what I only need to do now is to act accordingly and never to fall from FUD and wrong decisioning , Now that I am earning ? i only watch the market to decide if needed to sell if there is a momentum in dumping , or if this continue to grow then i will hold more.

You are somewhat correct but you have to understand that they existence depends on how the market moves, right now although we are technically in a bear market, we have seen the price going up like in a bull season.

But I would agree that we should continue to buy no matter what scenario we have.

Just needed some money and mental patience to be in bitcoin game for long term, or wait till the next bull run.

It's very difficult to just hold on to coins and watch the market as it rises. You must have a strategy in which you sell your coins at the price you thought of earlier. If you don't have a strategy, you can easily panic when the market gets volatile. It is therefore very important to have clear targets before you buy your coins.

Strange if the very large transaction volume is described as false bull, the bigger Bitcoin community makes everything very possible, I'm sure the increase that has occurred is the first step and soon we will see the price of touching $ 50k this year or possible More, the best thing right now is to stop thinking and seeing the analysis, it's better to sell assets or taking a loan to buy bitcoin.

I think we need to forget about the fake Bullrun as we are about to recover now. Let us say that we are not really in a bullish market but this is not the thing we consider that the current pump is a trap. It can be fake anyway to other coins but as we talk about Bitcoin, a decentralized project can't be manipulated. Why not let the price of Bitcoin pump when in fact, people were also happy about the situation?

The market will not be forever in a deep situation which is why we expect a pump any time, and it comes.

We cant really say that we are really that in a bull run but rather i do believe that it is really just some small percentage recovery.People do really love to rush up things on which they do love to see new all time
highs on the time that they are seeing the price is starting up to climb which we do know that not how this market works and behaves.It would be not a smooth sail ride but rather it would
be involving lots of waves which goes up and down neither on slow or fast pace or everything we could think off and this is how this market works and lets not rush up but
rather we should be wise on taking up positions.

I can agree that what's going on with bitcoin is not a trap. It was a natural bounce after many days of decline, but technically we are not out of bear season, so we can't say we will recover from here without any further drop.

Bitcoin is a decentralized project which means no one has control over it, but in terms of price, I think bitcoin is still the most manipulated market. The price of bitcoin is not determined by supply and demand, but by whales.

I also thought about it, but it's been around 3 weeks since it reached the $20,000 price and also reached as high as $24,000 price.

When I saw it, I thought it was a false breakout and I expect it to go down soon. Now 3 weeks after, I might change how I see it and I guess it's more like, the market really is starting to recover now since it has stayed above $20,000 for 3 weeks now. Let's see if it will stay at that price for a month. Still, I would like to remain cautious because what happened is kind of surprising to others since we don't know what is the reason of this recent price spike.

Overall, it's good to see Bitcoin's price above $20,000 again, but I'll stick to my 2023 prediction that Bitcoin's price will stay at the price range of $17,000-$25,000.

That's called buying rashly without using the mind on what he is buying. Because whatever will happen and regardless of conditions that can still change in the market, you really don't have to ignore your own mind for anything including buying. Because doing something without thinking sometimes can also make you miserable, so thinking and analyzing is actually something that must be considered important for every job.

This understanding that you provide makes a lot of sense and is also very precise because after analyzing the market and immediately rushing to buy is a very good path for everyone to take. Because at least everyone already knows what they're buying after they've researched it well. But for those who only analyze without buying, it's the same as they won't get anything in a good moment. Vice versa where someone buys without relying on research or his own mind.

Well, I expect that the majority are not yet convinced with the current situation, doubts remain and I feel that every time when prices increase.
In two weeks of consecutive price pumps, I don't think we still need to think about it as a trap but we rather think this is gonna happen after the year in bearish. Might not be a bullish time in the market but I'd consider this as an indication that the demand is growing. Meaning that one of these days the price of Bitcoin will possibly reach $30k if the momentum won't stop.

As investors we don't think too far, many people think too much whether the current increase will continue or bull for a moment to attract other investors then the price drop is worse than in 2022, I think the best thing if we are afraid is to sell immediately when we are profitable, then wait the price drops again to buy, but don't be surprised if the price will continue to rise and become increasingly expensive.

If we mean that we are in a false bull because the real bull run is right after the block halving. But if we are referring to a fake break out, just like what we are seeing, price seems to jump from lowest low in November and then to $24k++ it concerns other specially TA guys.

But for us you just look at the long term perspective of the our investment, I will say we really don't care about the current trend.

If you we are looking for like the next all time high, and so we just continue to accumulate as much as we can, the price right now is good but we are looking in a bull run to the tune of 6 digits and that is the most important and not analyzing the price short term.

This bull run has lasted 3 weeks, and it can be said that it is not a trap, but there is nothing wrong if someone is still doubting everything. Don't forget that bear season is not over yet, so extreme caution should be exercised as bitcoin can correct at any time. To me, this rally is just a short-term rally. The past bullish days have had no notable buy signals in the market to say that the demand for bitcoin is increasing. Bitcoin is very volatile and it can neither fall forever nor rise forever, it is always volatile.

If we look at the events from December to January, Bitcoin increased a lot from 15K$+ each, then it suddenly increased little by little with the highest being 24k+ just at the end.

    This incident may be just a prank hehe, just kidding aside only, but seriously, it's true that what we're doing has a risk involved, so other precautions are needed that on the other hand should still be saved of course. And the important thing is that we should still be risk-takers.

Yes, I don't put it aside that we are still in the bear season but at least we have seen these few pumps that could bring courage for the holder not to give up from waiting. I know how volatile is Bitcoin but I don't think also that we drop again below $20k this year. We have done with the FTX issue that badly affects the market reputation and we are now in the recovery. Might the current pump not be going bullish straight but I know people are happy about the market improvements.

Even though it has been 3 weeks (as stated) for Bitcoin price recovery, I still can't remove the fact that this is still a bull trap.  For some reason, I am not fully comfortable with the current surge of the price.  This is bullish sentiment is premature and I am still doubting that it will continue to be bullish until the halving.  I am worry of some point  possible manipulators will cash out trapping bulls and when that happen I am more worry on the possible effect of the incident on the market which is Bitcoin price crashing hard.

I dont think its a bull trap but clearly more then a little pullback has to occur to clear sellers out of the price action.  Recent high was weekly average and present price is at the 30 day average, it can stabilize here or continue to harder ground while finding support.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AEEt9.png

Its quite an abrupt sell but also is in line with Dollar index rising and general market  pulling back also.   21k appears to be a far more likely ledge to catch a fall.

It is definitely not a "false bull", it went from 16500 or so levels to 23500+ levels, which is a proper increase and not some small increase. People are too much afraid of the price and they keep making these type of comments and I keep getting sick of it. There is nothing wrong with trusting yourself and bitcoin at the same time, its a good project and you should be able to trust it enough to buy as much as you could afford without ruining your life. I am not saying put all the things you have in bitcoin, you can just put some and trust it, but to avoid it because you think its a false bull? Thats a very bad move and will not end nicely for anyone.

I thought we are already in a bull run? He just said it above. Is he confused or what? But if I were to give my own impression, I will say that we are not yet in a bull run. Mini/tiny bull run maybe, but I prefer to call it as a recovery. We know once the real bull run has arrived when each coins are pumping like crazy and breaking their past ATH's.

Old hodlers knows what they are doing but the one who are truly encouraged about the recovery that we see last time are the newbies. Some says that $20k or less is still possible. Well, anything can bound to happen here. This is the beauty of being volatile, don't expect that hard dumps can only happen if there is serious negative news.

For whatever term it is then I think the increase in the last month is really good and also expected. How could it not be, the price has gone up quite significantly since November 2022 even though in the last 24 hours it has down by 4%. The market recovery has been good since last year's low, but a correction is inevitable since February 3.

It's a dynamic, I tend to say.

It is possible to be a false bull, even a bull trap.  Other refers the current price trend as relief rally, a higher low.  Other even stated that we are not yet out of bear market.  So I think it is not bad to be cautious in time like this were the Bitcoin trend is in a critical stage of being bullish or bearish.  But one thing is sure here.  If we believe that Bitcoin will uptrend then we can just continue to accumulate, if we are in for a long term this issue whether this is a bull trap or a bull run will not affect us.  we just keep on buying bit by bit until we think we have enough.