Bitcoin Forum

I know most people downplay the Mt Gox payout and most will say it will have no bearing on the price. This is why I am curious if anyone actually thinks this is keeping the bitcoin price down.

When Mt Gox payout goes into effect, they will sell a lot of bitcoin to get the cash needed for the claimants who wanted fiat instead of bitcoin. This will be a huge amount of coins hitting the market. Then you have all the bitcoin being sent to everyone, will they cash in those bitcoins for cash?

This adds huge risk into the price, nobody really knows what this is going to do and you can only speculate. Will Mt Gox sell all of these bitcoins in a day and crash the market? Who knows what could happen.

 This causes a a lot of uncertainty, why invest in bitcoin when  there could be a huge amount of coins hitting the market. Better to just wait for the payouts to happen after March 10th and see how it goes.

I'm looking for anyone who agrees with me that this is probably causing the bitcoin price to be held back at the moment until this gets worked out. To me it seems mostly everyone says its a non-issue.

Why don't you want to continue the discussion about Mt. Gox in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5441733.0.

I think it's only natural that most people have ignored about bitcoin Mt.Gox so far, it's because of there were many delays and failures they've had over the years. I'm not even sure when it will actually be distributed, but of course the market is sure to turn into dump if creditors manage to get their hands on the bitcoin. But don't worry, this is an issue that may only be FUD for some time so you can invest at a lower price.

...So you're looking to recruit a gang to spread some drama on this topic/subject?


In the past few years, every few months there was a news about Mt Gox bitcoins about to flood the market soon^TM. Indeed, that made me wary.. first 2 times. Now I see it as a non issue. If will ever get released and if too many people will be dumb enough to dump their coins at this rather low price (since we're just after the crypto winter), so be it. But I think that it's rather unlikely. Hence I'm one from the "non-issue" group.

So what do you suggest? That the MtGox users don't get their bitcoin back? If you're that certain that it will push bitcoin's price down, then you can take advantage of it. But the fact is, nothing is certain concerning markets.

I thought that payout will be spread along? from March-September?

And not sure if this is the first time that we have heard about Mt. Gox supposedly payout, and again not saying that it wouldn't put a dent in the market, but it's so tiring to here about this in numerous occasions.

So let see how it goes, I do agree that nothing is certain, and as experience investors, we should know how to take advantage of the market situations.

If the BTC is confirmed as actively available it doesnt matter too much where its stored in particular.   If all supply is immediately flushed into exchange order books then sure it'll be a blip in the graph while its digested but its all pretty short term.   Other dynamics are why we are stuck in the 20k region and its most about people who bought and sold here previously.   Some people who thought 22k was the bottom are ready to cash out, till the scales tips towards new buyers and optimism in the market we have to stay here to serve the sellers.  That whole iterative process that constantly goes on to provide a price balance is more important then just one event from Mt. Gox, the news on that failure is years old so its not new and not systemic so its not that relevant especially.  

Let the Mt. Gox funds bring the price down if it must. Those Mt. Gox users who have been waiting for their money for many years deserve it. Whatever decision they will make, I think there will be no problem whatsoever. If it means the price of Bitcoin will fall all the way to $20,000, $17,000, or even $15,000 and below, I don't personally have a problem. This is Bitcoin. This isn't some centralized and manipulated market. This is a free market. I'm 100% sure that Bitcoin will recover from this and demand will once again dominate the market. The big Mt. Gox supply that will hit the exchanges will be temporary.

I don’t think it’s MtGox yet. They have been delaying it for years and until the coins start to move, I don’t see it being the reason. The silvergate bank is mostly why Bitcoin dropped and on the macro side it’s the huge inflation we still have. Most likely there will be more fed increases and it’s always bad for stocks and crypto.

Until the coins actually move we won’t know what affect it will have on the price. Might dump for 1-2 days and then recover.

Even I felt weird for a while with the current dump in BTC price (from 23k to just under 22k) because the US markets didnt fell with us this time. Could be due to mtgox related fear but this release will not happen this year I can almost guarentee that although nothing is certain. SPX already crossed well above 4000 again so btc will again catch up in a few days (judging by the negative funding rates = short squeeze incoming).

The Mt.gox drama has been going on for many years and what they do is just empty promises so people get bored and distrust is understandable. I also don't believe they will return bitcoins to that year's victims.

But if it happens then I'm really glad that the victims of that year can finally get their money back, and are even happier if they sell all their bitcoins. Many people fear bitcoin will plummet, but for me, it will be an opportunity to keep shopping for cheap bitcoin.

Yes, it is not a big problem for the most part. The compensation will not be in full at once for all those affected, but will be in installments in the long term, so there will be no dumping of the market.

Also, those affected who will receive compensation will most likely not sell their bitcoins that they got at this low price now, of course it is possible that some of them will sell directly, but most likely they will wait for the market to rise.

In any case, this is just speculation, and no one knows for sure what might happen until the actual distribution takes place.

If you think that these depositors will get their money soon, then most likely you are not following the details. All that happens is food to control prices or attempts to analyze from some locals to show why the price rose or fell.
Such statements have pressure at the beginning of trading, but with the passage of time and the more such news increases, its effect ceases to appear.
Therefore, it has no effect on the price.

Commented on a separate post about MtGox. It didn't ever have a significant or long-lasting effect before (regardless of whether coins were needed to be bought or sold). Negligible impact now, if any.

We've seen this before in the news tropes (China mining ban, institutional futures like CME, etc.). It might work when new. It might even work when regurgitated in a new cycle, having reached new audiences. But the effect wanes, and can't take hold.

Sorry but Bitcoin has been vaccinated against Gox.

The current price slow down is due to the major resistance that keeps blocking the uptrend movement. I think MtGox news is not yet being use as FUD on current times because the price dip will be more insane than the current price setback.

Also MtGox token will be distribute in parts so their Bitcoin will not gonna give huge impact on the price unless it will be used to create a FUD among the crypto pips on the social nevertheless it’s not a big deal to cause huge dump or slow down the trend.

I also think the current price has nothing to do with MTGox. As I have written before, the amount that is paid out is not so high that it can drive the market price down. Also, I assume that even if people get their Bitcoins back, they won't all be sold at once. There will certainly be enough people who will continue to hold their Bitcoins and wait for a new ATH.  :)

For long term holders of bitcoin who are willing to hold it for a few years, they don't care if its value drops now in the market. The only ones affected by such scenarios are those who are not yet deeply involved in the Bitcoin industry.

      Now, for scalpers this is an opportunity for them to buy bitcoin again in a short period of time because they know the movement in the crypto market. So for me what you say is irrelevant op.

Honestly if I am one of those victims that have been waiting for my funds to get refunded and then I've received it, without any doubt that I'll spend it like there's no tomorrow so I'll totally sell all of it and if not all, then a large part of it.

Whatever is the reason with the sudden falling of bitcoin's price. Let's appreciate also the reasons why it has been up coming from the lowest that it had after the bull run of 2021 which made bitcoin $16k.

Every time we don't like the movement of the market, we're thinking a lot of things and that's no good for our own cause because it will just create a panic attack if you keep thinking about it.

Disagree. Mt.Gox payment is nothing compared to the market, it is people that keep the bitcoin price down and it will always be people who keep it down. There is no scenario where something as small as this payout could ever keep bitcoin down, there will be a lot of people who think like that, and they will suspect this to be bigger than what it is today, but the reality is that bitcoin is much larger and it can't be kept down by something so insignificant.

I believe that people are just not that much into it at this moment and they can't see it growing just yet and that is why they are not buying right now and that is the main reason why it is not growing at this moment.

I think it depends on the victim’s situation. There really isn’t a difference between having funds held by the gox bankruptcy and cold storage. Except the declining amount as a result of lawyers being paid. I imagine a lot of those victims stayed in Bitcoin and probably have other BTC they could sell if they wanted. I’m sure there are a couple whales who will dump but not everybody.

If we do look about into those amounts then it is really that lucky that they are really returning victims or users funds in half in btc and half in fiat which i could consider that it did really lessen out the risk on

making the market do crash out specially with Bitcoin.Although it wont really be that much in a concern because no matter how hard we do crash there's always a recovery.

This is not really that shocking anymore if we do speak about negative news or fundamentals because the market could neither affect it out or not.
If ever it crashes then there are lots of people on the community and investors would really be catching out on that bottom.

To this day I am unsure how many times anyone has actually gotten anything in comparison to the media just using the very well-known Mt Gox situation to scare people into believing that a huge sell-off is imminent. Is there any actual on-chain evidence to prove that a repayment fund is being accumulated or can be sent from those who are representing Mt Gox and conducting the refund?

I bet we all can't wait for the day that the payments are finally sent out and we don't even have to worry about this news holding BTC back again...I know I can't.

I totally get why people wouldn't buy now.

It's like invert version of sell the news event, where people are afraid to buy the news (in inverse). And as the fear is priced in it won't drop either.

Meaning that we most likely we start to move up rather then down right after people get their btc back. Some people will sell their bitcoins as they have waited for so long, but i trust there will be ton of money ready to buy as people are just waiting the price to drop. When it doesn't drop enough, people will slowly start to buy it back up.

I'm not certain with that but why bother though when you can get advantage of the market? So far, I believe it's the FUD that's making the price go back to dip again but on the other hand, it's what we needed if we want Bitcoin to grow even more. That's why they always say, Bitcoin is best to hodl for a long time. If you can do that then rejoice if Bitcoin make a rise after a long time of staying in the bottom.

But anyway, why is mtgox always showing up every time if there's a FUD?

Yeah, that's possible.

But that is if that's all I've got remaining or I just want to quit with this thing and have been waiting for too long. Someone who's annoyed with the situation will just to sell it and don't want to wait for something else to happen so, that's what I'll do then.

You're right with it that it's not everybody who's going to sell and there will be for sure folks that will keep it and the value of it has gotten higher than when the debacle has happened to mt gox.

I think if we were at or near ATHs then I can see many of the MtGox creditors selling everything. However we are near lows and I am pretty sure most don't want to sell their entire stash at this level. They probably think BTC will go higher in the near future and they will hold, so they will sell but slowly.

The ones that will sell right away are probably people who need it urgently. They might have some debts or want to buy a house and obviously its the smart thing to do. But doesn't mean everyone will sell at once.

Its either they would really be selling out directly or would really be still holding until to the future years but considering on how many times fold on they do able to gain up with that Mt.Gox incident
then it is really that likely that they would really be that selling out instantly on the time that they do get a hold of those coins. For sure that most of them werent been expecting that
those coins would really be given back after all the years which do ends up that most of them lose up hope on recovery and now things becomes even more better
as there are hints that it will really be that giving back to its users.

Either of the two.

But if you're going to put yourself in their shoe, there's a bigger chance that you've waited this for so long and you just want to get away with it taking out with the cash happily.

Though the small chance is that these are real bitcoin folks that have never gone away with the market and anything that's going to be received by them will be good as another investment to be held until the next bull cycle.

We do not know the flow of MTGOX where Bitcoin is sold at once or for those who receive it holding it, there is no concrete data anymore, but what is clear with FUD cannot be separated will always be in the distribution or news that concerns several agencies The problem is very reasonable some panic and sell while I believe from them there are still those who survive for Bitcoin.

In theory, it is true that we actually benefit when the price of Bitcoin is low we can buy more, while what is expected when Bitcoin goes down besides buying?
Remember FUD will not disappear and it will be attached to some bad news.

I think this news about Mt Gox bitcoins having a negative impact on bitcoin price is greatly exaggerated. I think that even if all 185k bitcoins are sold at one time, the market will recover from that very quickly. But I am sure that they won't sell out all at once and that bitcoin transaction will stretch out for a long time. And many of those people will not sell bitcoins all at once.

There are a lot of things that impact the downtrend of the market price but believe it or not, there's nothing you can do about the Mt Gox payout leading to the market bearish than making use of the advantage it presented the people who have their Bitcoin stuck to the Mt Gox have to get their funds back sooner or later.

I think that the payout made by Mt.Gox does not really have a significant impact on the overall crypto market, because we know that the Bitcoin market is around $1.2 trillion USD and that is quite a large number while the payout made by Mt.Gox has so far been 156,000 BTC is about $524 million USD. And also it is done periodically, not done at one time, because Mt.gox also does not have enough funds to be able to pay out to creditors according to the amount of Bitcoin lost - they have limited funds and also estimate various factors not to payout in the amount big in such a short time.

Apparently MtGox is not the only one we need to worry about. The Silk Road coins are on the move by the US government. There is 40K BTC and 10K was already sent to Coinbase. Most likely they will be doing some twap and in a few days or weeks they will send the rest.

Still getting mixed reports about MtGox. Many are speculating it will get delayed again and payouts for later in the year.

i just noticed the deadline for registering accounts needed for payout has been extended again.. from 10 MAR to 06 APR. at least thats what the mtgox site now says. havent seen anything else but im not looking too hard either.

Yes it was delayed again, According to,

https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-registration-deadline-pushed-for-another-month

The Registration deadline is pushed to April 6 and the distribution deadline is push from Septh 30th to Oct 31st.

All these delays must be driving the creditors mad.

I was just about to post this information myself after reading the email. One thing I did notice is that I had to re-register the payment information even though I had already done it previously. I almost missed this myself but thankfully I decided to double check before the deadline. This makes me think that taking an early pay out instead of the final lump sum might result in a much smaller payment because if I could’ve almost missed this detail of having to re-register my payment information, I’m sure others will as well. That to me explains why they are constantly pushing back the deadlines. Because I don’t think as many people are registering payment information as there should be so a lot of these funds are going to go unclaimed.

I keep saying the same thing, they are just pushing it as a news to keep bitcoin lower, whoever "they" are, they just keep pushing this as a news, and when the price goes down like they wanted it to, then they push it further, you know when it's pushed to? Not any date or anything, I guarantee you that next time we hear serious news all over the net about this will be when bitcoin price starts to go up again.

Obviously when a huge bull starts, this news can't stop it, like a 2021 situation can't be stopped like this, but all these smaller increases are getting crushed anytime it happens with these bad news, it's either this, or some bankruptcy, some shady companies, china bans it for 15th time, etc etc.

If they have all that amount, I think they won't pay them all at once because they also know what it can cause in the market and they don't want to be blamed for that. The problem now is within the creditors. Im sure that some of them will complain because they can't get all of their Bitcoins in an instant. I know it sucks but at least they still have the chance to get the Bitcoins that they think they already lost long time ago.

It will look inappropriate if we will tell Mt.gox to cancel the move that they are planning and the creditors will be angry with us. If we are on their side, we will also be excited to get our Bitcoins. Bear market is an advantage but maybe not for the OP because he may be done filling his bags and badly want's to see a real bull run right now.

If we put ourselves in the shoes of the issue victims. It's not that it will look inappropriate because it is actually inappropriate to say Mt Gox not to disburse the Bitcoin to the rightful owner because it will somehow impact the market price. Besides, the bearish market is not over from my own impression about the Q1 of every correction market since the 4 cycle is yet to be complete.

Why should we focus so much on mtgox to make a significant negative impact on the price of bitcoin, the fact we need to settle with is that, bitcoin price will definitely remain unstable and from time to time there will be sharp movement in price in both direction.
So whether or not mtgox payments are released or not, it's still ball down to the fact that the price of Bitcoin will still act in whatever direction the demand pushes it to and Mtgox victims getting their money back shouldn't be seen as a draw vack to Bitcoin price or future market.

Logically they may want to delay distributing it for 300-400 days.

after the ½ ing 130k coins dumped will have 2x the impact they do now.

say it is 22000 coins a month for six months in a row.

when we are down to 3.125 coin blocks its 13500 coins a month.

so a 22000 coin dump monthly for six months against 13500 coins should be effective.

those coins all were under 1300 in value.

some lower than 300

so selling a 300 dollar coin for 18000 is a big gain.

Whether this Mt.Gox funds been given or not we cant inevitably able to avoid if we do speak about those bearish market cycle which same as you said which is actually true.Whether there's fundamentals around

or not but still we do experience out this bear market which it isnt really that shocking anymore.Despite on making yourself getting panicked it would be wise or better if you do
do really take out advantage on buying cheap coins as of this moment as it is really that on fire sale.

You could really be able to make advantage with the current price condition that we do have.Dont make yourself panic because this is how this market do behaves.

And once again mtgox changed the date as expected lol.
"Mt Gox registration deadline pushed from March 10th to April 6, distribution deadline pushed to October 31st". However, the price still fell under 20k even after no big bad news. Feels like the market reacts more to the commentary of the fed rather than its real actions.
Side note: Added more to my btc holding position right under 20k. No stress at all ;)

the feds are a real bitch.

Poke around and search I-bonds

Nov 2021 7.1%
April 2022 9.8%
Nov. 2022 6.9%
April 2023 maybe 8.3%

every year as much as 3.3 trillion of these can be purchased.

so 2021 i bonds jumped in nov  and btc tanked
and 2022 i bonds jumped in apr and btc tanked
2022 i bonds dropped in nov and brc stablized
2023 i bond rumors abound some say 8.3% which will tank btc in may.

No wonder Mt.gox continues to delay and delay the release of bitcoins to victims. I can't even remember how many times they broke their promise to their investors, they were playing cat and mouse. They don't want to pay anyone, which is a huge amount compared to the current bitcoin price.

To me, Fed is still the biggest shark in the financial market, centralized or decentralized bitcoin; they never care and can dictate bitcoins move at will.

The results aren't too surprising, they've been doing it for years, so it's pretty much anyone's guess that they're continuing to move the date. I've never been afraid of bitcoin being dumped because it's a good thing for long-term investors like me, I can buy bitcoins at a low price. So I was hoping they would release that bitcoin, partly to help the victims of that year get their money back, partly to make bitcoin cheap, but in the end, it didn't happen.

You're right about seizing the opportunity that happens instead of people making themselves panic about the bearish market that's inevitable to happen after Mt Gox BTC disbursement. However, you seem to miss the fact that I am not panicky about the market's bearish condition, and if you ask me I will tell you that I am one of the BTC enthusiasts that like the bearish market more than bullish due to the quantity of BTC that will be made available in the market.

MtGox is just the tip of the iceberg that slowing down Bitcoin growth. It all started when the FTX crash that drag down all the companies that has exposure on it. The effect of this huge scandal is massive and some company like silicon valley and silvergate bank are the recent downfall. USDC is now being depegged due to this banks that recently collapse. Guess what will happened next when USDC totally collapse? There’s a lot of crypto companies that exposed to USDC which will dragged down more the Bitcoin price.

MtGox and Fed hikes is just a minor FUD compared to what’s coming in crypto when USDC collapse along with the banks and crypto companies that has a reserve funds in USDC. Don’t give a lot of credits to Mtgox for Bitcoin slow down. Something big is trying to manipulate the crypto by killing those big players one by one.

I think the people who do not want bitcoin to succeed are people who are doing very well with fiat world we live in. That's who "they" are, I can't name any person, but that's basically a whole group, that's basically an "understanding", like no rich person needs to go to media station they own and tell them to say bad things about bitcoin, that media company already knows what's good for their owner and act accordingly, if fiat helps them and bitcoin hurts them, the media company will say bad things about bitcoin all the time, no need for the owner to come down and say something. So whoever is hurt by bitcoin being great, is the one who keeps it low.

It is clear that Mt Gox has had a major impact on the Bitcoin market. This impact has not only been recognized on this platform, but also by many cryptocurrency experts who link the drop in Bitcoin prices, as well as other cryptocurrencies, to this payout.

While the market impact was expected, it came at a bad time as it happened during a time of recovery.

However, since the payout is not an ongoing event, it would be wise to deal with it once and for all to ensure a seamless experience during the next market boom.

Silicon Valley bank collapse had nothing to do with crypto. I think the bank had just been doing poorly for a while and then a few days ago I guess they announced they'd sell a bunch of stock to get back to like doing well but this caused people to panic and sell so their stock price crashed and then there was a run on the bank to get money out and the govt came in to shut the bank down to stop further negative effects. Something like that. It only affected crypto because Circle was holding a few billions dollars of the USDC reserves in the bank. But otherwise it has nothing to do with crypto.

As long as USDC repegs its all good (hopefully Circle has their USD in banks insured), as that bank going down was outside of the crypto market. Though it does spell trouble for the larger economy because I guess that bank was a big lender to the tech industry. I think I saw Jim Cramer say that Silicon Valley Bank's collapse could actually put a stop to the FED raising interest rates because the FED will be worried about economic contagion spreading from that collapse and so the FED might back off trying to forcibly slow the economy down. That would be a nice thing for Bitcoin haha, since higher interest raises are keeping investors afraid.



But yeah I agree Mt Gox is a non-issue for now. There's several more impactful things that have happened in the past week that have caused the market to go down. If the USDC issue can get cleared up soon and it repegs things should be looking fine for Bitcoin and Crypto as long as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse doesn't lead to more things in the US economy failing.

Voyager is currently liquidating assets and that'll end soon. The news or rumor that the US govt sent a billion dollars of bitcoin to Coinbase to presumably sell will disappear as we move on to the next news cycle. The Silvergate collapse will also fade as we move onto the next couple news cycles in the coming weeks. Mt Gox is a non-issue until I guess October which is when they moved it back to. If USDC recovers and if the FED only raises interest rates by 25 points this month because of worries about Silicon Valley Bank instead of what had been looking more likely recently to be a 50 point raise, the bitcoin/crypto market should have found its bottom and start heading back towards where it was last month.

In my opinion, the most important factor that made bitcoin prices decrease was the occurrence of scam cases, the last fact is FTX which caused panic because more than $ 3 billion in money was frozen and could not be withdrawn, but after almost 4 months of the FTX case, the market is now slowly starting to recover even though it is not significant, we see if in June the price can touch $ 30k or not.

This is why FTX should of never went the bankruptcy route. They should of just given everybody a 50% haircut, make them sign some agreement similar to what Bitfinex wrote when they got hacked and most people would take the 50% now than wait 10 year to get 50% which after inflation will be worth 25%.

It’s crazy why they keep delaying this. I understand that they want everybody to claim it but they can at least start paying out the people who have been waiting almost a decade for their coins. Keep the rest in the trust until people start to register for new claims.

No one wants any exchange to go bankrupt because no one wants to lose money. But it's an open market, and there's no regulation, so there's nothing we can do when companies go bankrupt. When participating in this market, we should have calculations as well as be ready to accept risks if it happens. The cryptocurrency market is a market of greed, of scams, so I never get upset when many people think it's a scam.

As for Mt.gox, I think people should stop expecting, what they are doing shows that they don't want to give money back, they are just buying time to make people despair and give up.