Bitcoin Forum

Investing or any industry, if you ignore the historical factor, it means you leave out the data about the market. The market principle is always iterative because human psychology is also iterative, so if you take away the lessons that the market has taught you in the past, you cannot predict the future market well 👌

=> If you study a field thoroughly from basic to advanced things like why it appeared, by whom and how, .... Then there will come a time when you will be able to predict the future. its. And that is also the reason why great people have the ability to predict the future like Tesla, Leonardo da Vinci, ... Why don't we apply that in investing in general and investing in virtual currencies in particular?

Satoshi already predict the future of Bitcoin from a long time ago.


He was said that in 2010, we're only need to wait the next 7 years more in order to see Bitcoin is really have very large transaction volume or nothing. However he was said about volume, not the price. Maybe Satoshi thought Bitcoin could be a currency and adopted by many countries, because when Bitcoin is adopted become a legal tender, obviously it will encourage people to use it for daily life.

If you look at the cyclical nature of history, it shows that patterns are repeated, including in finance and investment. By understanding the past, we can gain valuable insights into the present and the future. However, predicting the future with certainty is impossible. While knowledge and analysis can inform our decisions, they cannot completely eliminate risk.

This is always important to think about because Investing in virtual currency requires careful consideration of the market, technology and regulations, as well as a willingness to adapt to changing circumstances. In the end, success in investing requires a balance between knowledge, skill and luck.

Satoshi prediction was 50-50 because it is hard go give an actual conclusion on the volume of bitcoin. He knows that bitcoin will not be able to replace fiat. Bitcoin was designed to be an alternative currency, which means it is a choice for people to use it or not. Presently,due to people seeing bitcoin as a store of value and an assets with high privacy has made the volume to be increasing day by day. If tomorrow a better project pops up and is more valuable than bitcoin, I believe that the volume of bitcoin acquired will begin to go down. Nobody can predict the future of bitcoin because it is a volatile assets. We can only study bitcoin movement based on past event because life cycle repeats itself.

There are already lots of predictions applied to the investment strategies; people predict how the coin price is going to be and when the price will hit its target; we already have those experts, and they are already active in investment. 
The only thing is that most of the time predictions don't happen the way they are predicted to. Some factors can cause a drastic market change, which will affect an already predicted price. 

I don't really think anyone should invest in any coin or token without looking at the fundamentals of what can really come out of the project, etc. Unless those who are just out there to buy whatever they think is good for buying and holding find that it sometimes works in their favor.

Let us wait and see what would happen in 2024 after bitcoin halving, if the price of bitcoin increased and got to all-time-high again, you will notice that people are using the historical events to predict what the price of bitcoin and altcoins can be. Did you saw what happened in 2022, the price of cryptocurrencies fell, also that people knew that it would be more dawn on altcoins than bitcoin and it happens just like that.

The only people that are getting it wrong are people that do not make any research, people that only what they are trying to do is to fomo and nothing more. These are the kind of people that also like and panic to sell while losing just little amount while the price may later be in their favouring direction.

It's because bitcoin has 4 year cycle, or at there is what we call bitcoin halving happening every 4 years. So that alone is also cyclical, no matter what happens, the block halving is going to occur as it is written by Satoshi.

So that is the only thing that we can predict, so as far as we know, the price will go on a massive bull run but we don't know what will be the highest peak or the all time high. Predicting it is going to be very difficult, we have seen in the past cycles about some modelling that predicted  bitcoin will be $100k or 6 digits in the last bull run but it didn't happen as we the highest we achieved is $69k.

To reach the pinnacle of a profession, we must understand why it was born? History is always repetitive and cyclical. When we understand that, we will understand the operating rules from which to predict the future (of course we are talking about the model of the macro).

Yes, there is always that repetitive cycle and one can use in understanding it to one's advantage most especially in investing and trading. However, just like human nature, there are also times when things can deviate from historical pattern and this can also be normal. I am not good in investing nor trading and that is why am always interested with many predictions in the past that came true and those that never materialize. So anybody can tell what can generally happen in the year 2024, please?

Satoshi had no idea will Bitcoin be accepted and have large transaction volume or will not be accepted and have no volume.

In 2023, we can conclude from fact and on-chain proof that demand is large and transaction volume is huge. With time, Bitcoin has been accepted more and its blockchain has been used more. People have to stay in queue to have confirmation for their transactions.

What will happen in next 10 years?

I believe it will continue the uptrend of adoption and likely exponential adoption.

He created bitcoin to be a P2P payment method, a currency, not an asset for speculation. And we used bitcoin in a different way from the beginning, and it continues to spread to this day. I bet the later market participants don't know what the real purpose of bitcoin is, what they do know is that investing in bitcoin is to get rich.

Given the way the government is treating bitcoin, I doubt they will accept it as legal tender in the future. They hate it more than they love it, so that's a big challenge for bitcoin.

No one can predict the market. Even you as the maker of Bitcoin couldn't have an idea that it will worth a lot as of today. It took years before pumping a lot with its demand. Imagine the volatile system of bitcoin so you can't confidently say that it will reach to the moon.

Bitcoin could be already used as an alternate currency even before. With its popularity and value as of now, people have an idea what is bitcoin so it can be adopted as a currency in our daily lives. You could already see some businesses, transactions and mode of payment outside the internet so I think it can be used as an "alternate currency" since we're still sticking to fiat money. Because if we're gonna use bitcoin as our currency today, I don't know what would be the economic situation to our world once we adopted bitcoin as our currency.

No matter how we study the past or the pattern of bitcoin movement it will definitely be hard to get an accurate predictions but just a mere guess that could coincide. The earliest predictions has always been there’s always a huge pump when an halving is close by or after each Halving. But also bitcoin price is also been hit by economic factors from government policies, recession and also aggravated FUDs during either collapse of commercial banks or top exchanges. This or many could affect the price of bitcoin either negatively or positively, so it definitely hard to get an almost near certainty in its predictions.

You can not predict price correctly every time you make your prediction but you can see the market psychological cycle repeats itself many times. That psychological cycle is similar for all financial markets and cryptocurrency market is not exception.

If you zoom out and have long vision, you will be able to use this cycle easily and get profit from it. You don't have to mind about short term and get frustrated with bad news in bear market.

Halving effect is great and see past cycles with past halvings. Societies, policies, economy are different among past three halvings but do you see their similarities with price growth on the chart?

I know in short term, bad news and fud are really frustrating and impact your emotion and life quality a lot if you are betting with leverage and have to face with forced liquidations. Else if you just hold your bitcoins, your life would be more easily and less stressful.

To compare bitcoin to the organic and structured nature of life survival in the economic world then we may not be doing a very good service and understanding of bitcoin in the space that it is  trying to occupy. For the doubts I can't say if Satoshi did envisage the institutional challenges that bitcoin is undergoing from different government and their agencies. So investment in virtual currency like bitcoin for now isn't without a little kind of skeptism unlike it contemporary.

I think that there can be people who are somehow pretty good at predicting where the market is moving, when to buy and to sell, but even these people are sometimes seriously wrong, and it also doesn't seem to be a simple skill you can just obtain and use. While there are some repetitions and one can be fairly confident that there will be ups and downs, for example, or that there is a Bitcoin bull market every 3-5 years or so, it's much harder to know the moment when the bottom is reached or when the price is about to start moving significantly. So it's not just the cycles and learning from history, it's also perhaps something like a talent. Kind of like some can become great artists and singers, but most can't. I know I'm alright with long-term, relatively safe investments, but I'm not good at trading. Thus, I simply stopped engaging in it once I realized that I'm not good at it, not sure I'll ever become good at it, and not willing to invest my time and effort to try and find out.

You can't assume the way we all reason to be the same, moreover this is digital currency you can't compare it to other asset or currencies, it's something that needs a proper orientation and preparation before starting, if you're not interested in taking a risk then it's better you don't start at all, some investors take their time to study and observe closely before taking a step, though it may not be clear to us what they have done unaware to us, those that fails to go through this same process were the ones that normally loose their asset due to lack of knowledge, people investigate but not everyone we know or that comes to us to tell us what they have done in salient.

Ofcourse, but you don't need to be great to give a fair prediction of repetitive events like the sun reaching the middle of the sky around 12pm. Even children can guess that right. That doesn't make people who predict repetitive things great or with special abilities to predict the future. Beside, no one can accurately predict the future unless it's given from above.
 In regards to the price of Bitcoin, its price movement is no longer influenced by events and other things of the World. It's reconfigured to be partly influenced by things that's according to its ideals. So don't expect the price movements to be repetitive unless maybe you really understand the new things that currently influence it.

That is what in sciences people call determinism. Past events decide the present and the future. Everything follows a determined logic of continuous facts which trigger the following one endlessly.

Bringing this concept to bitcoin, we can mention the halving phenomenon, which happens every four years and push the currency's price to extremely high ATH levels each new time, guaranting to BTC a constant cycle of prosperity and allowing investors to profit from their initial investments on long term.

That is what history shows us and that is what we expect to continue happening next year, 2024, a very special halving year.

We have a trading volume of over $16 billion in a bearish market period. That counts as a pretty high transaction volume in my opinion, when compared to what it was 13 years ago.
Satoshi made a futuristic prediction, that doesn't mean he was referring to that particular year.

Satoshi never expected Bitcoin to be adopted by governments, but the citizens who would use it to escape the fiat financial trap the government put them into.

It needs more than just knowledge to have this kind of ability. It also involves intuition, demography, some lucks, and of course experience. The person I have in mind when discussing about this is Elon. While people consider it's a big mistake for him to buy Twitter, his other companies Tesla and SpaceX are blowing our mind, especially the latter, which with SpaceX rockets, now it's possible to reuse same rockets to the space and even now he is figuring out to make a colony in Mars.

So talking about bitcoin, of course anyone could be expert on it. We were newbies and knew nothing about bitcoin, now we are here and we can talk much about it. For sure, if you invest more time to learn it, study the market, do trial error, and even experience losses, you could predict the future of bitcoin. E.g. bitcoin dropped a lot couple times, but we are still here, because we have learnt that bitcoin price would be bounced back.

The historical data may not be the same as the previous but must either has same occurrences, we can't deny the fact that history or past event of bitcoin still works on the investment side. What i am trying to say is that you might fall while doing that, the best options as an investor is to go for long time investment with this at least you must meet the bull run whereby may actually make go return from the investment. While those active in trading can get more involved with scalping maybe some of you calls it DCA.

In all, the historical data gives us more guideline and stability to be able to withstand the pressure of market and all forms of price manipulation.

In as much I share in your opinion @op, I think other matters of life is quite different from the market, bitcoin and entire cryptocurrency market in particular.
By cyclical, you mean that bitcoin is only repeating what it has done before, well, to some extent, you are right, but to a larger extent, you are wrong, wrong because bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market is still very young, bitcoin's all time high in 2011 is not the same as its all time high in 2017, and 2017 all time high is not the same as 2021 all time high, and if you still ask me, I will say that I am very sure that 2024 all time high will be very different from 2021 all time high, and for what the all time high price will be in 2024, no body knows for sure at the moment - so this is clearly not cyclical at the moment.

But then, maybe bitcoin will become cyclical when eventually, it reaches an all time high price it can not break above from anymore, that is, when it reaches that price or close to it, it falls back, then repeat, and repeat again.
This is when we can indeed conclude that bitcoin have started cycling around prices it has seen before.

Everything indeed is cyclical, even the lives of people are cyclical (in some religious view, such as Ecclesiastes 3:20 where it stated : "All go to the same place; all come from dust, and to dust all return".).   In terms of finance and investment, what matters is to know this cyclic pattern so that we can take advantage of the ups and downs of every market.  

So yeah, I agree that applying this kind of knowledge to Bitcoin will give us an advantage on the market since we will know something that others don't know and be able to buy and sell at the right time.

Price history is not the full market data. There a ton of other factors, like if you take Bitcoin - you need to consider adoption levels, hashrate, legal status in multiple countries, exchange ecosystem, and a lot of other things that may influence the price. You can't predict the price just by looking at the chart alone. The market is not a system driven by single law, like a physical pendulum, it's a combination of many factors.

And history is not cyclical. You can find examples when similar events happen under similar conditions, but you can also find examples of the opposite.

There's a point but we know that this do work on different field.It isnt something that we could just apply it out that in investing considering those inventions and theories that had been mold up
isnt something that correlates on what we are doing now.It isnt really just applicable since there would be no study nor verification that had been done and since this is investment
then it has nothing to do with those things.

Therefore, its better not to boggle up yourself about those theories because it couldnt work no matter how hard you do try.There's no way for us to know the future
that lies ahead.

Yes, it seems that was his idea, but we still have the problem that most people have a negative attitude towards Bitcoin because it is the attitude of their government. With some exceptions like El Salvador, it is not realistic to expect the government of some economically stable and rich country to suggest its residents to start using Bitcoin. It is enough to read what the SEC, the Bank of England or the European Central Bank think about Bitcoin to understand that such a concept is simply unacceptable to them.

When you understand why a market behaves in a certain way and the lessons it has taught us in the past, you can make better-informed decisions. Similarly, individuals who thoroughly study a field can develop the ability to predict the future. This is evident in the work of great minds like Tesla and Leonardo da Vinci. Therefore, it makes sense to apply this approach to investing, including in virtual currencies, to increase the likelihood of success.

This means that successful investing also requires agility and adaptability in response to changing market conditions.

The overall market process is the process of bubbles forming and bursting. I suppose there will surely be some fluctuations of crypto price, but now there is also a high risk of inflation of the worlds main fiats. So one of the main problem is to establish non-fluctuating value measurement scale (or at least not heavily fluctuating). Currency (USD, other fiats, BTC, alts, whatever) is not a reliable value measurement scale.

Its the reason why we've got historical records or data. Its the only thing you've got, to give you a glimpse of what to expect when you see certain patterns. History is useful that way and those who are able to merge that with the present day events have some huge advantage.
The bitcoin market has been season to come in two seasons (the bears and the bulls) and also, its got another circle about the halving.  Without being able to predict in exact when the bulls will operate, many people have associated the bull market to follow up the halving. This hasbeen true many times and we as well have the bears to come in there after. It's a repeated event.

1 BTC = 1 BTC, so we used the fiat to know the value of Bitcoin per unit since we use the fiat on daily basis to buy anything we wanted. The actual value of an asset based on its demand and supply so if we need to calculate the value we can use anything that has stable value against it but it won't be convenient like using fiat. By the way I feel using the fiat is good because then we know how much we are being robbed by printing those paper every year and inject it into the economy.

History indeed steers us through tomorrow's labyrinth. But, each historical beacon doesnt guarantee success. Visionaries like Da Vinci, Tesla didnt predict - they sculpted the future. For Bitcoin, recurring patterns - halvings, bulls, bears - are observed. But like fickle nature, Bitcoin too swings. A severe winter can succeed a gentle autumn; a harsh crash can follow a halving. This is crypto's mutable climate. While historical facts are a navigation tool, theyre no fortune teller. Profiting in Bitcoin necessitates mastering its underpinnings, market tides, and economic factors. A judicious investor realizes patterns can shatter as swiftly as they shape.

The 2015 crypto market performance is different from the 2021 market performance, I believe we shouldn't judge the future with the past, anything can still happen, today is certain but not tomorrow, many people lost their lives to Covid 19, they never knew that 2020 would be their last.

As Bitcoin is the best one in this space, I will still recommend risking what you can only afford to lose, and also try to lower your expectations, because if Bitcoin loses strength in the future you can easily give up because you expected way too much.

Hmm interesting, maybe someone is somehow smart enough to predict where the market will go, when to buy and sell.

But it is also not certain that these people are always right! I guess it's also wrong sometimes, and it also doesn't seem like a simple skill you can get.

While there are some iterations and one can be fairly certain that there will be ups and downs, for example, there is a Bitcoin bull market every 3-5 years or so, it is much more difficult to know when a low will be reached or when the price will start moving significantly. So it's not just cycles and learning from history, but maybe something like talent.

Like some can be great artists and singers, but also many can't. I know I'm fine with relatively safe long-term investments, but I'm not very good at trading. So, I immediately stopped getting involved in it as soon as I realized I wasn't good at it, wasn't sure I would ever be good at it, and wasn't willing to invest my time and effort trying and figuring it out.

This is apt. For those who assume that history wouldn't continue to repeat itself on Bitcoin will have a hard time making money off it. For me, the full circle is the ups and downs that cumulate in ATH every four years. I saw it in 2017, 2021 and I'm expecting another in 2025. The beauty of the whole thing is that each preceding ATH is always better than the last.

Certainly, even Satoshi never envisaged that Bitcoin would be treated as an asset. He merely looked at it as a payment option and that was why he talked about volume. Today, the greatest advantage of Bitcoin which has helped advance it is its price, not volume. Many of us got hooked on it because of how price moved and then decided to make further research on it. I never thought of Bitcoin as a means of payment the first time I heard of it on radio. The radio crusaders on that day only talked about its value appreciation as an investment.

I'm pretty sure that those who become rich investors didn't ignore historical data. In fact they look at it and that's why we have what we call technical analysis which base everything on it's previous history and then plot in and try to see where it will go in the future.


It's being applied already, and that is why there are many predictions. But it doesn't mean though that it is an exact science. Most likely those analysis is going to be a hit or miss. Just like what one famous prediction model which was almost perfect, but it just failed when it says that the last bull run, we are going to see at least 6 digit tops.

It's because in investments, there's always a risk and you can't guarantee that's why a lot of people are saying that you can start small, diversify your portfolio, and be patient, and some also advice that invest for the long term.
Even Bitcoin comes with a lot of risks, no one knows what will happen to Bitcoin before, some became lucky and some with patience are rewarded.

Diversify your capital into different assets which should be old safe heaven assets like Gold, Silver and new assets with potential for big growth like Bitcoin.

Because we are in a cryptocurrency market, many people will put altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) into their radars but altcoins have younger ages than Bitcoin. Altcoins have yet been tested enough by the market especially bear markets. If an investor invests in altcoins, he will have bigger risk than invest into Bitcoin, Gold, Silver.

It can be called as capital diversification too but in a risky way.

• Dead Coins: How Many Cryptocurrencies have Failed? (https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed)