Bitcoin Forum

After Nostradamus, I would say that Satoshi is another man who saw the future. For instance, he predicted what is currently happening with bitcoin transactions many years ago. This is a quote I found on the forum.


True to it, bitcoin is not yet 20 years old, and we are already seeing very large transaction volumes that are taking almost forever to get to the recipients. We don't know when this will end or how it will end, but we are sure that whenever it ends, bitcoin will still be standing. What are the other predictions that Satoshi has made that are happening now, have happened, or are yet to happen?

If you have taken the time to study the entire Bitcoin white paper, you will be well informed about several events both present and future events as it has to do with Bitcoin and its existence and unique nature, this is why we must be at peace at all time when some events take place with bitcoin and it network because satoshi nakamoto took the time to explain and outline all the features of the coin and the challenges it may meet as it grow and the pattern to solving those challenges.
E.g the current state of things with the transaction volume, and fees occasioned by network congestion, this is not the first time similar problems are faced in the Bitcoin blockchain and even though this was included in the whitepaper also, truly satoshi saw the future and he made adequate preparation for them to help keep the network running without interruption.

Satoshi didn't see any future here. Infact he didn't make any prediction. He just said something from the both side of the coin. So, if it is not this, it must be that.
It is just like telling you that in 100yrs time, the price of bitcoin will be very high or there will not be bitcoin.

The person I will give this credit is Caveden who said his opinion in a post made by Jeff far back 2010 about block limit increase. See what he said

To be fair — we have no idea on what Satoshi meant by "large transaction volume", as what "large" means can be quite subjective.

It is an interesting quote but it does not support your intention to show that Satoshi Nakamoto saw the future.

His quoted post only writes about two scenarios for Bitcoin, massive success or completely failure. Anyone can predict future this way.  :D

Well, I don't think Satoshi had anything like the Ordinals in mind, but it's clear that he was a genius with a great vision for the future. It's just that it's very difficult when you invent something that after 20 years it's exactly the way you planned it. I don't think that when he created bitcoin he was thinking of the many people who buy it on Coinbase, for example.


The quote says something logical: that in 20 years bitcoin would have either triumphed or gone to shit. With that date not far off, it is clear that it is succeeding more than anything else.

That's because Bitcoin is the most unique coin and completely different than fiat.

Bitcoin is decentralized, transparent, limited supply, secure, deflationary and borderless transaction.

While fiat is centralized, not transparent, unlimited supply, not that secure, inflationary and not borderless transaction because it's need a help of other service.

So it's either most of country will ban Bitcoin which could make the volume is small or most of country don't really care and let their citizens to choose, this will make the adoption high due to that uniqueness.

Satoshi wasn't specific with his decision on bitcoin survival,he only came up with two possible outcome of bitcoin. According to his statement, it is either bitcoin will grow high in its adoption in 20yrs time or bitcoin will be no more in 20yrs time.

But from the look of things one of this phrase must come to past,which is the positive side of his prediction that has come to past even though it is not up to 20yrs. The decentralized aspect of bitcoin, resistance to inflation,,seen as a store of value,bitcoin halving and limited supply has sustained bitcoin all the way from 2009 till date. No matter whatever challenges that has been brought on bitcoin through the economy or the government, Bitcoin adoption will still keep on increasing.

Satoshi is being passionate in what he does and this begins when he first have the interest of the world to himself in seing a better financial situation than we've been having, he knew that risk he was taking in making a serious research and findings in other to get bitcoin invented, he also knew about the risk involved upon this research work he embarked to be either successful or failure, but here's the results of what he had done 14 years baxk and still counting as a lifetime achievement and it turned to a success we all have today with bitcoin.

I do not think that this is what Satoshi meant, otherwise what happened in 2017 is a confirmation of what he said, the blocks are currently full, but most of them are spam or useless data (not peer-to-peer transactions or real use of bitcoin)
What Satoshi meant was a very large transaction volume in the sense that more and more people would use Bitcoin and thus a currency for international trade or a dead currency.

In general, 6 years remain for the statement to be finally verified, and perhaps the 20-year period is the period of maturity of technology, just as it happened with the Internet.

Literally, Satoshi was talking about Positive and negative feedback loop when he made that statement; large transaction volume is possible if more people keep transacting with bitcoin and small transaction volume if the number of traders decline. He was explaining in simple sense how bitcoin price works. Hence, it doesn't sound as seeing the future, yet its a prediction that took one side, which is the large transaction volume. Who knows what happens at the actual moment, 20 years, of his prediction if it'll take a negative feedback loop or Positive feedback loop.

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FFpKsLD6XEAE2MOr%3Fformat%3Djpg%26name%3Dsmall&t=649&c=FNqyVJtYIrWNYw

And just like what Nostradamus, with his prediction, it is open for interpretations.

We don't know what Satoshi is referring to as far as large transaction volume or no volume. We could interpret that as bitcoin becoming successful, being used and adopted, or will just die down = no volume.

He predicted the future when no one really thought Bitcoin will grow up to this level. We can see now people are talking about tackling high number of incoming transactions and surely there needs to be some change in the block size if we assume Bitcoin will be the main stream payment mode because for now TPS of Bitcoin is only around 7 to 8 which is no where near if we compare the payment processors like Visa which can process 24K transactions per second.

Satoshi Only predicted what will happen but he didn't saw the future. Prediction and seeing is not the same that's why the quote below that he predicting two scenarios and one of that is after 20 years theres's a high volume of transactions and this is actually what happening right now and this is the proof that bitcoin is getting wider. And the second is after 20 years there's no volume of transaction which not happening right now.

 

This is a general assumption and even we dont yet on the 20years something like this should be expected cause he himself can see some flaws or assume a problem along the way. Of course not every system are perfect and this is something we also take into account. He knows very well a possible problem to his creation and being like that means his really a genius. Who can predict orfinals can make such traffic isnt it.

It amuses me to see statements about future predictions and Nostradamus on a technology forum. :)

You expressed yourself incorrectly. Satoshi didn't see the future, but created this future.

Also, you made a mistake with the interpretation of Satoshi's quote. I think he meant that 20 years later bitcoin will be in demand and will be used (which is why the volume of transactions will be high). Otherwise, bitcoin will be of no use to anyone and will not be used at all.

In one thing, you are right that 20 years have not passed yet and we still can't verify the relevance of Satoshi's statement. In general, the figure of 20 years should not be taken literally.

I think that Satoshi's quote has nothing to do with the current situation with high commissions, with which OP is trying to find a connection.

Simple!
That's exactly the same thing that came through my mind when I first read that post... I wasn't seeing any conciseness in there; it was written with a big uncertainty.
On the other hand, I won't say Satoshi was ignorant of what he created.... maybe, he was only tryna figure out the probability of it becoming a trend in today's digital market. Alot has been said than done over the years already so I feel the big digital currency still owes the world its complete renaissance,... But ofcourse, time will always be the difference between the past, present and the future to come.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

I also think the same way because if Satoshi actually see future as the OP said, he could have predicted the exact amount of Bitcoin in every decade.

I think the Bitcoin whitepaper has given the entire hint and ideas behind Bitcoin technology and development, the massive adoption will result to different ideas and observation which every one can drive their observations and predictions about what might happen in future of Bitcoin.

This has started happening from now, and as Caveden has said, the rules would have been easy to update then, but now it will be very difficult to change any rule easily.

Interesting quote, Despite the challenges posed today and the current increase in volume neither I nor others firmly believe Bitcoin will survive. Other predictions include Bitcoin becoming a global reserve currency, promoting financial inclusion, and witnessing future technological advances.

That sounds like something you'd say when you want to be correct no matter what! It is not exactly a prediction. Not to mention that the transaction volume has indeed increased but what you referred to in OP about the congestion is actually an attack that is causing artificial traffic in the bitcoin network that is not generic bitcoin transactions sending money around as Bitcoin was meant to do.

I echo with other reply, Satoshi does not know the future of Bitcoin since if you read through the context of your quoted statement, Satoshi do not know what the future lies for bitcoin reason why he stated a double standard statement since it is either huge volume or no volume at all, saying both simply means he does not know the exact trend of Bitcoin in the future.  It is like saying that you will open this forum on Saturday or you will not.  ;D

These words of Satoshi have nothing to do with the forecast. This is similar to how some experts make "forecasts", who in one sentence say that the price of bitcoin will rise, but at the same time mention the fact that the price may decrease. In this case, their forecast always comes true))

Well at least he wasn't thinking there will be the same amount of transactions in the blocks as a random shitcoin. He was convinced that the blockchain technology will meet some needs or those needs will be covered by another mean. IMO in his thoughts Bitcoin would fail as some other numeric currencies or would be another Paypal.

What satoshi said was normal, he didn’t make anything special, if am going to interpret what Satoshi said, it means in the next 20 years, it’s possible for bitcoin to be successful or in 20 years it’s possible for bitcoin to be dead, no one will hear about bitcoin again. But in less than 20 years, bitcoin is already having a large transaction meaning bitcoin is already successful, few weeks ago bitcoin mempool was so congested which leads to increase in gas fee, I think that’s the large transaction he was talking about.

Satoshi knows that if bitcoin could survive, then the amount of people that will be using bitcoin will be increasing on a daily basis, currently lots of people don’t still know about bitcoin, am just thinking about how bitcoin adoption will be in the next 20 years.

This one. :)
It's like "If this will not happen then this one will happen". It's not a prediction, but a mere statement. It's like "If you will not win, then you will lose."

TBH, using "HE" to describe Satoshi is kind of irrelevant because at first place, we don't know who Satoshi is. Anyway, are you saying then that Satoshi is like an alien from the future then who knows what can happen a few decades from now? Satoshi said that because he/she/they believe that his/her/their invention is one of a kind, and either we use it or not. Surprisingly (or not), people trusted Bitcoin, and now we are using it, so his/her/their first statement is the correct one.

Satoshi is one of the geniuses who made the world in an uproar with his product, the presence of Bitcoin has received international recognition for Satoshi's success in launching his product called "BITCOIN". Satoshi can't really see the future, Satoshi's writing you quote has two different meanings. Even though he starts the word with "I'm sure", at the end of the sentence he uses the word uncertainty there. There will or no volume indicates his prediction does not have 100% accuracy.
If different conditions existed in the present, perhaps people would think what Satoshi said was inconsistent with genius. Even though at that time he made predictions based on two different paths, maybe there would be volume or no volume.

He predicted that his creation will be adopted or will be ignored based on that quote and the former is what is happening now.

One of the things that Satoshi overlooked is the use of a mining pool and ASIC hardware to gain an edge in mining.

He understands that his creation will have a direct conflict with the government system which is why he prefers to vanish and leave everything.
I think by leaving the main focus will be on his creation instead of the creator.

The invention of the man who created Bitcoin had bring lots of riches to human lives. There are people that would still be poor till now if not for cryptocurrency which had change the lives millions of people. It has also aided the continueous dumping of the bank power to access all our transactions and determine how we are going to spend our money. So many things was happening then before the invention of Bitcoin and now we have seen for ourselves that the creator had something in mind to pass to the other generations so that they will keep benefiting.

Increase in transaction fee, not gas fee. Quite a lot of Bitcoin transactions are happening quite alright, but the mempool congestion that has been happening for a couple of weeks now is somewhat different, it isn't really Bitcoin transactions that is clogging the network, but people who are using the Bitcoin network wrongly, thus clogging the mempool and it is different from what Satoshi ever envisaged.