Bitcoin Forum

With my little experience in Bitcoin I've discovered over a range of 2 consecutive years precisely 2021 and 2022 that as we approach end of year the price of Bitcoin falls tremendously
Please why is this and could it be that the digital currency is likely wanting to create a window for people to make use of the opportunity for other investors or what?
I expected normally that during the periods of end of year's festivity there should be a rise in Bitcoin price that is sustained for let's say 5 months after with little fluctuations but it's not been so. My point is why does this happen as we draw to the close of year so far?
What's your take on my observation? Have you noticed this too?
What could be the reason behind it?
Your response is appreciated!

Very well I have noted your responses and thanks for the correction I actually knew I couldn't use a short time experience to generalize Bitcoin trend. Thanks for the analysis y'all.

That is, you're saying that this the price of bitcoin will go down because you have experienced it before, well I have also actively participated in bitcoin for two years now. For ending of 2021 bitcoin price was not going down and instead it was going up and the bear market come at the second quarter of the 2022 and from November which was the last quarter of the year 2022, bitcoin market changed narrative, the price was rising and till date bitcoin price has not gone down to $16k again. And the next halving will start either from the last quarter of this year 2023 or early part 1st or 2nd quarter of 2024. So from the past years I have witnessed bitcoin prices, it has not been a bad market for the end of each years. And from the prediction and speculations, bitcoin price will not too bad at the end of this year. And I don't know how you saw yours in the past years and how you are going to see this year price as well.

Why even take the data that seriously if it’s just in a short timespan? You’re giving it unnecessary meaning.

Correlation is not causation. https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2012/jan/06/correlation-causation

It is not usually like that, there are some end of the years that are probably next to halving year just like this year 2023 and they are end to a year after halving period like end of 2021. And some are between the halving period just like 2022.

Now let’s take a look at that of 2021, the halving period which happened in 2020 caused the bull run to happen in 2021 where last quarter of 2021 saw bitcoin hit a record ATH of $69k on Nov 10.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/08/09/GLPrP.jpeg

Then that of 2022 was a little different because the entire year was filled with bad news around cryptocurrency as some Altcoins eat the dust and some exchanges faced went down which caused it to be in state of bearish period entirely

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/08/09/GLROq.jpeg

So looking at both years ending on different trend we can say that they are not always a bad end to each year but the market and economic situations sometimes are the result of each years ending price and not necessarily a regular low price at each year ending.

Some of the years after halving have always been bullish and some before it are filled with bearish period. So each year ending is quite different.

Price of BTC depends on a lot of factors and this the one you mentioned is not one of them because at the end of every year most of the companies or BTC holders paying taxes try to sell there BTC to avoid some Taxes and in that spiral supply increases over demand but that's just my assumption so do not depend on it. The dip back in 2022 December was due to FTX shit and some other shits and back in 2021 the price of BTC dropped why? here are some factors to shed an eye on --> https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-extends-downtrend-falls-121-47176-2021-12-04/

I think we should not take these measurements as indicator because these are not.

There is a cycle on these periods and that's what you need to know about, the four year cycle. It's proven to be like that and likely to happen again starting next year and so on.

As the market is unpredictable, so these events in between the cycle are likely to happen again. As I've said that it will happen by next year which is the halving of Bitcoin will happen.

And from there, you'll see how the market reacts until the bull run is in.

Get your facts right the end of the years has nothing to do with the price of Bitcoin going up or coming down and for the two seasons you talked about, the price of Bitcoin was not affected by the end of the year rather the explanation of @Agbe is a possible reason for it and looking at the price of Bitcoin in the last two years now, there is a possibility of the next bull run happening by the end of 2023 to 2024 and if that happens, I hope you always don't complain that the year the price of Bitcoin became down again? Bitcoin has been in existence for more than 10 years now and over this year's the price has not been stable during the end of each of the years.

You've taken a very short period of time to draw your conclusion.
In 2019 end of the year was rather stable
In 2020 the price increased
In 2020 it increased
In 2021 id decreased
In 2022 it decreased

Based on that you have equal chance of getting a bullish or a bearish outcome ;)

Markets are for the most part never that obvious and the answer for it is in your post, even if you were right about your observation, which you are not as other members of the forum have shown to you, and traders began to take action expecting this drop on the price, the increased demand for bitcoin will have the opposite effect and make it to go up in value, or at least counter that downward tendency, remaining stable and prove you wrong anyway.

If I were you, I wouldn't wait for the end of the year to buy bitcoin. It could be an opportunity drop, but it could as well become an ETF approval and then you'll not see sub 30k bitcoin for a long time. Maybe never.
If you don't have any bitcoin buy some now and leave yourself some money in case it really drops. If you have some bitcoin, procure some money to be ready to buy the dip. Don't sell your bitcoin to wait for the dip that may not come. IMO it's going too far in one direction without considering the other.

Don't over think the behaviour of bitcoin price and don't listen to any advice of it going to a particular price, be a neutral person and avoid the FUD or any hype. I wouldn't tell you yes or no but my advice is this; if you have the intention to buy bitcoin, do so ad don't procrastinate about it, my reasons are is because it is at the point where you wouldn't have loss if you hold in for the long term, the demand in this support zone are massive and market makers are also doing anything possible not to go beyond $29k, halving is fast approaching than we anticipate, so, there is assurance that this force will help you minimize your risk if you invest wisely.

Remember that we are dealing with a volatile cryptocurrency, there's no specific time, month or period for the currency to rise or fall, if not people will have a particular day or month they will target to buy or sell when the price dump or pump, we only work by some statistics from previous years experience and compare them to current market price, we also work by the halving period where bitcoin rises and bullrun occurs, nothing aside this than the major demands and supplies for the market to rise or fall which could actually happened at any giving time, which means bitcoin has no specific pump or dump period, we get notified through speculations using different parameters to predict what may come next, but not everything is always accurate sometimes.

How much does the price of bitcoin drop tremendously? Bitcoin wouldn't, in my opinion, ever again increase in value the way it has since its inception if prices were to fall sharply around the end of each year. It would have been a rise in price from Q1 to Q3, and a sharp decline in price in Q4 of every year (causing it to dip below).

Having said that, you should be aware that the bitcoin market is circular. We have a bull run and a bearish market in that circle, which has halving seasons every four years. When halving season is approaching, it is normal for bitcoin's price to increase a little bit at the end of the year before to halving season.

There are predictions that bitcoin will soar in price to at least $35k-$45k by the end of this year since next year is the halving season of bitcoin.

Bitcoin and Crypto-currency generally does not have a rule book or text book to how the price flows. It's all about the happenings of the market in the present time, we all are entitled to our speculations or price foresight, and many of us has even planned ourselves towards like like when to buy Bitcoin and when to sell.

It's calculated risks when you have good source to atleast back your speculations but it's not a guarantee. That's just the market. If you also go back into history you would see that there are some years that would be in contradiction to your notions .

Ideally it's because of the christmas season. People are scrambling around trying to find money to fund their christmas celebration and gifts and that's why bitcoin falls tremendously during these times. It's been like that except way back in December of 2020 but only because it coincided with an impending bull run thanks to the belligerent Elon Musk and the anticipation of the people over 2020's halving. Next year's probably going to be the same thing, and this year too. So it's not something that's out of the ordinary or something that should concern you. Every Valentine's day I notice that bitcoin also falls in value although not as much as when December comes around. Same for every regular holiday in the US for some reason lol.

@OP , as of December 31, 2021, the closing price for Bitcoin was $46k+, and on December 31, 2022, the closing price for Bitcoin was also $16k+, can you tell the difference? Between the two years, which one presented a better price to acquire more Bitcoin?
The price of Bitcoin usually doesn't take a known direction every year or towards the end of every year; it is usually different, also depending on the season of Marked we are into in that year. For example, towards the middle of 2021, the bull market started to settle in until the end of the year, but in 2022, the bear market started and lasted throughout the year. You can't really tell what it will look like this year, but if you feel that the price of Bitcoin is really going to provide a golden opportunity towards the end of this year for you to buy lower than what the price is right now, then you can reverse some fiat till then, but never stop DCAing, so that if the opportunity doesn't come, you wouldn't have to regret it.

From the stats above, I think what the OP ought to realize or should take out of all that is the fact that, there isn’t a period of the year for buying. The sentiment about festive seasons is that, people tend to spend more rather than invest and for commodities like bitcoin investments, there are those who would liquidate a portion of there portfolio to ensure the festive seasons remains one of merry for them and when that happens on a large scale, the price of bitcoin is being affected but that ain’t the case is it?
Bitcoins price isn’t determined by seasons and times of the year, it has no particular element to it although, the halving has been speculated to bring the bullrun and that’s just about it but then, your better of @OP using DCA in meeting up with your investments. Don’t wait for a best time, the time is never right.

History has its rhythm but it does not mean the rhythm will be repeated each year. There are differences and lags between past cycles and what is going on so don't expect the same thing each year and each market cycle.

Bitcoin Returns (https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin) with Monthly and Quarterly Tables. Not all cells for December and Q4 are green in history.

Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly Returns (https://checkonchain.com/btconchain/technical/technical_quarterlymonthlyweeklyroi/technical_quarterlymonthlyweeklyroi_light.html) from Checkonchain.com.

Because you can not make accurate predictions, it's best to use dcabtc.com (https://dcabtc.com/) for Dollar Cost Averaging which will help you to accumulate bitcoin gradually and without need to make and rely on any price prediction.

That's because price fluctuates and there's market sentiments and these two I believe goes hand in hand as to why the price of bitcoin is ebbing up and down, the reason for that belief is because market is full of people and people have emotions and when there's news that involves bitcoin be it positive or negative, it's going to affect how people see bitcoin and it's future is depending on the news and if it's not in favor to them, they will likely sell which can cause the price to plummet since everyone's selling and there's not a lot of people buying and vice versa but that's not just the only reason as some people see news differently so they react differently, when I said that some people will sell when the news is mostly negative? Some would see those negative as an opportunity for them to buy bitcoin at a much cheaper price and with that combined, we see a sort of buy and sell stability but at the same time fluctuation in prices.

You're talking about the halving, if it's already proven then I wouldn't say that it's likely to happen again because the pattern is enough proof that it's guaranteed to happen. And I don't think that we have to doubt that because bitcoin will only go up even if it faces bad years throughout this "cycle". Kind of ironic to call it unpredictable when we all know that the pattern is going to repeat itself.

I think that market manipulation is also a factor of the movement in the market although seeing how you've said market sentiment, I feel like it blankets the market manipulation part although I wouldn't necessarily agree that it blankets it because market manipulation most of the time are subtle and not all market manipulations are covered by news coverages that affect the market sentiment so I stand by the belief that it's one of the factors and not just a part of the market sentiment.

Your observation is not right. What affects the price of bitcoin is demand and supply and not the end of the year. If you look at the price of bitcoin provided for you by @Zaguru,you will see the difference in price at the month of November to December. I don't think that the Christmas period affects the price of bitcoin. Last year December the price soar drastically because of the bad scenario in the crypto market,the crash of FTX played a major role on that because of the spread of the FUD. If you are waiting to buy by the end of the year,the price of bitcoin will disappoint you because it will be higher than this current price. It is better to buy now than later even if bitcoin price can't be predicted.

If talking about halving effects, I think we will see such effects but let's have a wider view than one halving. We believe in halving effects but I would like to see effects after two halvings and more.

Because the cycle can be broken in one halving but I am very sure that after 2 halvings and more, effects will be shown very clearly. So we can skip not only daily, weekly market movements but also can ignore price movements in one cycle like 4 years. After 2 cycles, 2 halvings which are about 8 years, we will see big effects and a new all time high will certainly be made.

Fluctuations in the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be influenced by a variety of factors, including supply and demand, market news, regulatory decisions, and even seasonal factors.Your observation regarding the Bitcoin price decline towards the end of the year could be a coincidence, as price fluctuations are often unpredictable.  There is no set rule or specific reason why a dip might occur during that time.  Cryptocurrencies are influenced by many variables and their price can be subject to sudden and even unpredictable changes. Also, the fact that the price does not behave as expected during the holiday season is not unusual.  Even the traditional market can react in unexpected ways during the holidays.

I think that it can happen due to people spending their savings for Christmas presents. Many people buy really expensive things during this period of time, so they sell their BTC savings in order to get large sums of fiat money, so cryptocurencies become cheaper. So, I think, these fluctuations are dependent on seasonal market trends.

I believe the four year cycle had already transitioned to the new cycle starting with a bearish trend.  The cycle does not end when Bitcoin has its halving event or when Bitcoin breaks it ATH, these event.  Cycle starts with bearish market and ends with bearish market.  The bull market and ATH breaking event is somehow on its mid-cycle as explained by the person who introduced the Bitcoin four-year cycle, Bob Loukas (https://www.youtube.com/@bobloukas3493)

I think the end year package this year will somehow have a Bitcoin recovery due to the effect the upcoming halving.  Regardless, it is still an opportunity to buy because there is a high possibility of a new ATH in the year 2025.

This is a standard example of how the market changes with the seasons and how people take advantage of tax losses. People sell things to make up for gains or loses on their taxes. Its a kind of financial spring cleaning. Also, before the new year, the big institutions generally rebalance their portfolios and take profits. So, its not so much that Bitcoin wants to make a "window" as it is that people want to, so to speak, change their own windows. If you time it right, this could be a great time for you to "discount shop" in the crypto market

It seems that it's been sufficiently explained that there's no end-of-year price drop regularity, as even if we take only a period of a few years, it's easy to see that sometimes Bitcoin goes up, and sometimes it goes down during that time. There are charts that monitor Bitcoin movement by months (so, how Bitcoin is in August of various years, September of various years etc.), but there's a lot of variation there as well.
What I do think might be something is a cycle length, but it can also be purely coincidental. I count it as a period between an ATH of one bull market and the next time that ATH is repeated after the bear market.
Bitcoin reached $1k in December 2013, and then again in February 2017. So that's 3 years and 2 months, more or less. Then Bitcoin reached $19k in December 2017, and again in December 2020. That's 3 years. Bitcoin reached $69k in November 2021, so I assume it'll reach that point again between November 2024 and February 2025.

People may want to celebrate the end of the year and the new year so they sell their Bitcoins to get money. But maybe that's not the reason because I think it's because of the negative news that makes people panic and instantly sell their Bitcoin.

And there are other reasons we don't know so we can only predict and guess. But if it were about a decline in Bitcoin prices, it would be a great time for Bitcoin investors to buy more. They will not question why this can happen because their focus is only to collect as much Bitcoin as possible.

And it also provides an opportunity for new people who want to invest in Bitcoin so that they can buy at low prices. And you don't need to question it either because we all don't know the real reason.

I don't want my head wrapped around the idea that Bitcoin will repeat history, this is the present not the past so anything can change at any time, I won't wait around thinking because the last bear market deceived many people so the same will happen again, a bear market is bear market and the only way to not lose yourself is to DCA slowly into your favorite gems.

The big players like black rock and others are doing all they can to shake many people off the crypto space right now, and only those who are brave will remain, how low Bitcoin is going to go is not what matters to me, what I am most into is making money to keep accumulating before it's over.

A piece of advice, take action and wait for the better days, nothing stays the same for a long period, this bear market will come to an end, probably after the next halving, from now till next year could be the last chance we have to accumulate.

Why would you expect price to rally up during festivities? I wouldn't expect that because I know it's the period investors like to take profit and allow the market breathe and cool off. They want to take time off from the market, relax or go on vacation and all that with families. Market is expectedly dull during such period, no much activities. In 2017, the ATH narrowly escaped the Christmas of that year. In 2021 it was a complete different thing as it happened months to December.

Talking about Bitcoin providing a periodic window for people to get in, it's market correction and that's expected. Sadly, not many people utilize that opportunity to get in at a discount because it's often characterized by fear that it could provide a further steep in dump.

Honestly, I will be one of the numerous numbers who will be hugely disappointed if we don't get a repeat of an ATH usually witnessed after Bitcoin halving. I'm banking on it to happen. It will be a heartbreak if it goes awry like what happened after Litecoin halving a few weeks ago, specifically on August 2, 2023. Price has continued on a fall since then. I hope Bitcoin won't do what you're speculating and go the way of LTC.

It's not like that. No one can manipulate or dictate the price of Bitcoin. We are here in crypto to earn money from investments or trades, so we couldn't control anyone if they are going to sell their Bitcoins no matter what's the reason behind that. It's a matter of supply and demand. If someone going to sell their Bitcoin, it's price will decrease depends on the volume. So if someone thinks that this is an opportunity to buy because they think or analyze that this price is currently cheap then it's up to them. One thing is sure, there's always an opportunity in the market.

Why use your own very short experience when you can look at the full price history from the beginning and analyze the bigger picture. You would notice that there's no pattern of Bitcoin falling at the end of the year. The only pattern is the bull and bear cycle that starts after a halvening.

There are no reasons why Bitcoin performance should depend on time of the year, this is not a stock that has quarterly reports, or a bond that pays dividends at certain dates.