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Now, citing Sergio's research, satoshi mined a lot of BTC. In fact, almost (or exceeding) BTC1,000,000.
He has a distinct pattern of mining, and only one block that is confirmed to belong to satoshi has been spent.

Below is a representation of the 50 BTC from that one block -- block 9 -- as they were just after being mined.
https://i.imgur.com/Ve4XUp3.png

I've traced -- by hand -- where every single one of these coins have gone. See the chart below:
Green = Unspent, Gold = Spent Go packers
https://i.imgur.com/sYuhZLk.png
https://i.imgur.com/KKuPygZ.png

Now we've all read that the first p2p transaction that occurred was satoshi sending Hal 10 BTC as a test.
You can see this transaction above. It's the original 50 BTC splitting into 40 BTC and 10 BTC outputs.

He later sent 10 BTC to someone else, and then he sent 1 BTC to someone, and then he sent a total of 11 BTC to the same pseudonym,
which in my chain archaeology thread is referred to as Bbz. Bbz mined block 360, and then combined the coins from that block with the 11 he got from satoshi. Unfortunately, Bbz is no longer with us-- they vanished long before satoshi did. Maybe one day they'll find their 61 BTC and return to us.

Satoshi still has 18 BTC from this block.

The 10 BTC Hal got were probably donated to a couple organizations but I didn't look too far into it.
There's 1.69 BTC there left unspent. It's possible they belong to Hal, or a friend of his.

Two of the separate coins were mixed in with thousands of others into huge whalewallets.

That leaves 6.31 BTC. Well, they're still moving today, and it's highly probable - unless your bitcoins are brand new - that there's a little bit of satoshi nakamoto's bitcoins in your wallet ;D

Here are those 50 BTC split up accordingly:
https://i.imgur.com/iDMNXFo.png
中文图形 https://i.imgur.com/Aml6sv3.png ;)

As the first block ever spent (and for several days 100% of circulating bitcoins) it's interesting to see where all the coins wound up, and nice to know that we all probably have a little of their taint. :)
Comments?

thanks.

1. when was the time he mined? Until late 2010? can we know he didn't mine later? I assume your estimate is a lower bound. I assume he didn't invest in ASIC's.

2. how certain is the 1MBTC? He could easily be the richest man in the world in a couple of years.

Of course he is hiding. Ha-ha！ ;D ;D ;D :D

Satoshi, having observed that the blockchain can now support itself without him, disappeared from public in 2010, and vanished completely in 2011.

The lower bound I believe is 985,000 BTC.

图形中加入中国形式 ;) https://i.imgur.com/Aml6sv3.png

Great job.

What is "Early adopter cold storage"?

Basically a wallet not connected to the internet where a long time bitcoin user keeps their stash. :)

Taint is good - it defeats the whitelisters.

In the future there will be tainting services for this purpose.

Taint all the coins!!

Another excellent, informative thread.

It is ok not to be British. Some nice people are not. But damn you with your 'damn fish and chips'. Also, we have faggots, yum.

OP, very interesting...thanks

Good work OP, thanks for your effort.

Excellent work. It all looks pretty and I love the thought of having some of Satoshi's first bitcoin in my wallet.

great blockchain forensics! love the graphics!

But but the Newsweek reporter found Satoshi in California.  How can you say he is gone?  The news is ALWAYS right.  Nice write up.  I personally enjoy the anonymity of not knowing who created such a revolutionary form of currency or "property" if you live in the great US of A. 

Wow thats pretty amazing

Very interesting thanks, I don't know what to do with the informations but it was an entertaining read and I feel it is useful somehow

It makes me think of the fact that we are all breathing everyday atoms that were breath by Julius Caesars 2000years ago

Its really great, I feel he spent small quantity of BTC

Nice job!  ;D

And resurfaced in 2014 ....But, we want him to stay anonymous :)

What software/site you used to analyze this?

It seems like he didn't spend any of the public BTC he has!

Is he dead? Does he find unethical to use any of this coins? Is he waiting for the coin to have more value? (doubt it)

he said by hand. ;D

If you wanted to try and trace things yourself, blockchain.info is a good start.  Here's that first transaction:
https://blockchain.info/tx/f4184fc596403b9d638783cf57adfe4c75c605f6356fbc91338530e9831e9e16

On the left, click on 'View Tree Chart':
https://blockchain.info/tree/15029

Note that this only goes one way, and doesn't identify what the transactions were for / who they came from/were to.
E.g. the recipient of that first 10BTC: https://blockchain.info/address/1Q2TWHE3GMdB6BZKafqwxXtWAWgFt5Jvm3
It doesn't say 'Hal Finney' anywhere.

Figuring all that out is where most of the work would be (delving through articles, forum posts, etc.).  Nice work, Taras!

Great job! No wonder he is hiding

lol yeah :)

I am glad for the critical acclimation ;D
I will definitely be making more of these analyses. ;)

Technically I used Blockchain and Insight to parse the chain, but when I say by hand I mean it was one click at a time. No macros or tools. :P
I used OpenOffice to make the visualizations. It was a lot of fun. :)

Interesting fact, or atleast for me...thank you for the analysys.

So far only 50, so little

https://blockchain.info/tx/ea44e97271691990157559d0bdd9959e02790c34db6c006d779e82fa5aee708e

https://blockchain.info/tx/0c0fcbeb927145b3746821d9da180d70bcadd9c12c68b2eba2cbf35d2fc3572d

https://blockchain.info/address/1MCwBbhNGp5hRm5rC1Aims2YFRe2SXPYKt


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=4335

http://cgt.name/

https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Christoffer+G.+Thomsen%22+bitcoin&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS549US549&oq=%22Christoffer+G.+Thomsen%22+bitcoin&aqs=chrome..69i57.1410j0j9&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8

WHAT????

NO FEES????

That's not good  ::) ::) ::) ::)

Fees weren't a common thing until relatively recently. Not surprised in the least that the first transactions didn't have fees.

do we know exactly how much BTC satoshi owns?

Sergio estimated 980k, but I'm trying to get a more "solid" figure.

You're a big fan of the taint huh?

I'm not sure if that was a joke or not. :D
Taint is an actual term in coin tracing.
https://i.imgur.com/PNThB89.png

He lost all his private keys and he didn't want to tell anybody because it would heart Bitcoin
Or he died
Or he didn't want to take advantage of its creation and thought it was best not to use the coins

Any possible news of satoshi's coins would hurt Bitcoin.
They're gone? That's 1m btc wasted for eternity.
They're spendable? One person could ruin the market, and it could be called a pyramid scheme as a whole.
They're donated suddenly? That's a million btc about to be sold by charities to help people.
A little bit spent? Well now we know satosji can spend them all, which could kill us.
For now, no news is very good news.

Yup, solid points! This man is doing the smartest thing yet again!

Are you able to post the addresses of the two 'in-circulation' coins (where you left them on your chart) so that I can do a taint analysis of my own wallet addresses? Now I am interested to know!  ;D

Lazy much?

Just 'follow the coin' :p

If he would spent all of it, price would fall too deep. I guess he is waiting for moment when bitcoin would be strong enough to sell it without risk.

I always thought that if Satoshi burned 1 satoshi from one of his addresses the market would react positively.
He waits until everyone notices it, and then spends 1 satoshi.
Then he burns 2 satoshis, wait, and spends 2 satoshis.
Next day burns 4, wait, spents 4.
Keeps doing it until everyone is sure he is not going to dump all those coins in the market, just spend a few.

Regarding Satoshi's coins, I also concluded that block 9 was the only block reward Satoshi spent.

Best regards, and happy chain-archeology day!

Taint is good - it defeats the whitelisters.

In the future there will be tainting services for this purpose.

Taint all the coins!!

I think he might have been making an innuendo:

Taint can refer to the Perineum, the region of the human anatomy between the genitals and the anus.

Thanks for the mentions, guys!
http://bitslog.wordpress.com/2014/04/03/chain-archeology/
http://www.amongtech.com/who-has-the-first-50-bitcoins-mined-by-satoshi-that-were-ever-spent/

@niels:
Actually, Sergio and I have and can link thousands of blocks to satoshi with good confidence. Block 9 is only special because it's the only block satoshi is known to have ever spent the bitcoins from... The rest haven't moved, at all.

Not a small chance. It's mathematically improbable that your address doesn't have some of satoshi's coins in it.

Thanks op for this interesting read.

-BTC

Has anybody checked that the approx 20k block rewards haven't been spent ?

Yes, although I'm now going through it and checking myself. Manually. :P

If the coins were dumped on the market that would be good for Bitcoin in the long run, the wealth concentration is steeper than for the US 1%.

Nice analysis.

I argued in my post (http://bitcoinowl.com/bitcoins-biggest-systematic-risk-satoshis-stash) that Satoshi's stash is the biggest systemic risk.

Not because I don't trust the guy, but because somebody could inherit it or 'steal' it from him and the new owner may not have the integrity Satoshi has.

Unfortunately speaking to insiders the consensus is that Satoshi is dead. He was battling a terminal illness when he was forced to give up on Bitcoin and later he died. I hope that's not true and that one liner when he saved Dorian is an argument against this.

Regardless, I hope he's alive and hope he sold his coins without moving them and lives comfortably somewhere. I highly recommend he never reveals his true identity. He would be dissected by the media and all kinds of organizations.

Satoshi is the name of a government, possibly even US.
They will not cash out BTC to fiat.
I strongly belief that Satoshi is the name of a government agency of some country.
All the events points in this direction for me.
People will disagree with me, I don't care.


Just my 2 satoshi's

真心没看懂 ;D ;D

I agree with this, Satoshi moving coins would probably send a bad vibe/ripple through the market.

However, I believe Satoshi should surface and move the coins sooner rather than later, to get the impact out the way with.

He could do some good will, like donate 500,000 coins to ease people's fears. Donate coin to every charity in the world. The price of bitcoin would depress for about a year, but come back more resilient with less fear of a single person holding such power over the circulation.

Satoshi would still have 500,000 bitcoin, on the path to becoming the richest person in the world, and the charity news would put bitcoin on everyone's radar, the price might even rebound in hours, not years!

Do you think these are all his coins?  If I were him once I got to 1 million in that wallet, I'd have switched over to mining into a different wallet address.. held onto the 1 million as an investment and spent the rest.

Oh and I doubt that satoshi will become the richest person in the world.. first of all, proof of stake is being figured out by coins like Nxt and going to use something like 1200 times less energy than Bitcoin to run, not to mention being significantly more cost efficient for the same security.  That aside.. even if Bitcoin did get to be worth as much as the USD these days, Satoshi would be approximately just as wealthy as Bill Gates, though granted he could actually spend his without needing to cash out his stock and crash it, because everyone else would simply hold onto any BTC he's handed them.

I agree, it does not seem like the work of a benevolent founding father, to mine 1 million BTC.

Regardless of the bitcoin price in the future, satoshi moving a single block reward will cause a huge sell off. That wouldn't be an issue right now, but it will be in 18+ months from time.

Well 1 million is kinda nice :)

Very interesting report and great work! Thx

Every block was mined to a different address.  The evidence of one operator is from the extra nonce. 

You don't give any arguments or clues


Satoshi will probably never spend his stash
If a BTC is work well into the 6digits he would be the richest person on the earth providing he exists, he is alive and he has access to his BTC


1000 is pretty nice, 1,000,000 is extraordinary

Very interesting thread. Pretty cool how bitcoins are distributed.

Just 10 is damn good. ;)

if he just spent 50 BTC, he still hold lots of btc.
So,why should we sold out our BTC?
just hold it :D

Note that there's never evidence of somebody holding it - unless they provide that evidence.  The only evidence we have is that other coins aren't spent.  That could be because they're being held, because the address' owner lost or destroyed the keys, or simply forgot about it entirely (not particularly likely option, in this case).

He couldn't have sold the private keys because the buyer would have send the btc to an other address

It is unlikely he is holding to sell it later

I'm going to bump this to see if any new bitcoiners would find it interesting. :)

I wonder if he even knows that the BTC price has risen so high?

 I don't understand why people claim he has 1,000,000 bitcoins. There is no feasable proof he owns more than 500 he mined at the beginning. I've looked for hours before in hope to find something that contains proof of his mining of the coins. There really is nothing.

 I believe the 1,000,000 coins is a myth.

private keys are lost.  ::)

When Dorian was "discovered", satoshi came back to say he wasn't Dorian. He's in the loop.

pretty interesting thread dude!
You put a lot of work in there to make those scheme's, good job man.
Funny to see how he spend it and how it all got distributed.

Oh wow, great alnalysis there. Impressive.

Too bad satoshi spent all his 50 coins.

We can see most of the blocks that he has mined.
See these threads:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=175996.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=507458.0

How we can tell is that the "extraNonce" variable increments every time a block is found, and creates "lines" of blocks that can be traced to individual miners. The largest, most consistent ones were satoshi's "blind miner" which made sure the network operated even when nobody else was mining/confirming transactions. :)

Also, so far we've only confirmed him to have 980,000 coins.
I was working on a more in-depth analysis, but school has kept me out of that. I should probably get back on it now, though...

Proof, or it didn't happen.

It's technically not possible to prove that a private key doesn't exist. We can only theoretically prove that it does.

I fully believe satoshi has his coins, and is just waiting for the right moment. Maybe he'll never spend them?

From this image:
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FiDMNXFo.png&t=541&c=XEIGWtzYDM2MOQ

Where are addresses of this very large cold wallets?

If u believe satoshi is sitting on 1M coins, can u plz list out the related addresses ?

There are thousands. I will eventually make a list. :)

One of the coins went to each of these addresses:

• 1Kf33BbrJDuAVC91w9ACtRgf6KJrLWSkHV
• 1GEPJiMSDvXHU83GhHHxrVmWL7tt7HPVyD