Bitcoin Forum

Let us see if someone would have invested
$1000 in Gold ten years ago,
or bought $1000 worth of real estate property.
Or if he invested $1000 to buy Bitcoin. How it would be then?


As the Gold-USD chart below shows, you would be at around 2x profit now based on gold's current market value.
your portfolio might be turned into 2000 USD.
https://i.postimg.cc/L5GTvjmM/GoldUsd.gif


If we consider Real Estate properties, you might have made a maximum of 10x to 15x profit in the last 10 years.
It depends on where you are living, but I don't think it could go more than 15x.


Now let's see what would have happened if you had invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago! The lowest price of Bitcoin since 2014 till now was around $150. So if I bought Bitcoin at that time, I could buy about 6.5 Bitcoin with 1000 dollars.
According to the chart below the current price of which would be about 345996 USD. About 34600% return :o. 350x profit would have been possible.
https://i.postimg.cc/PrgpyT8Z/btcusd.gif

Bitcoin has been giving such profits for about 12 to 13 years, I don't think anything else in the world can give so much ROI in such a short period of time. But where is the problem with our trust in Bitcoin?

Now you may say yes 10 years ago there was an opportunity to invest in Bitcoin. I know you missed that opportunity even I missed it but everyone knows that Bitcoin price will reach 100k or 150k. Even JP Morgan, who is strongly opposed to Bitcoin, says that the price of Bitcoin will increase.
So those who missed the previous rally should not try to catch the current rally? Will we make the same mistake again and again?

Maybe 10 years from now in 2034 someone will be doing this same calculation, that 10 years ago in 2024 if we bought Bitcoin we would have made 34600% profit. At that time maybe the price of Bitcoin will rise at 8 digits! Maybe I won't be around then but Bitcoin will be fine. :)

Bitcoin obviously wouldn't grow with those multiples anymore especially not with the same timespan; but it doesn't change the fact that bitcoin will very likely still be a very attractive asset to buy and hold for long periods. Multiplier will be far lower, but volatility will likely be far lower as well(which can be attractive for some people).

I think a reasonable approach to investing in Bitcoin lets say 1000 USD is :


The worst what can happen is that you lose the 1000 USD.

The best what can happen is that you make possibly 350 x profit = 350 000 USD

So maybe worth the risk to invest in Bitcoin...

:)

I wouldn't say mistake though, some people just don't really like the idea of risking in bitcoin, remember that bitcoin is a volatile investment, much more so than gold and real estate so it really does make a difference why some people still have some doubts. It's also worth noting that along the way in 10 years of hodling bitcoin, there's going to be times when you'll be tempted to sell because bitcoin despite it's volatile nature, growth can still be shown in years so you might not even be getting a full profit out of that in 10 years.

Past events are not indicative of future performances. The price increase during the first ten years of Bitcoin cannot be replicated over the next decades. It was starting from zero then and had a huge ceiling to be able to grow. We are still early now but definitely not starting from zero; an increase of $34600% from this point should be putting 1BTC at around a billion dollars, that's not realistic, except a supersonic inflation hits and fiat currencies becomes almost valueless.

This really amazing. The others investment like gold and real estate was still nice. But can't be compared to bitcoin great changes in price in the past 10 years. Though I'm not actually sure bitcoin could hit 34600% but this stage of bitcoin is still an early one and bitcoin still got alot of break through undergo and hitting 100k+ is one of such but more is yet to come.

Yeah alot people missed that great opportunity even myself also, but am not risky it in missing any such opportunities again. I'm really glad I've already started using DCAing in such wonderful investment (investing in bitcoin) and I know as time goes on my portfolio would keep on getting mature or growing. And would try and disciplining my self to avoid the urge of selling my investment in an premature state. Because holding for long-term is my aim.

Yes if we are just going to be talking about how much profit has been made in 10 years in investing gold vs real estate property vs Bitcoin, BTC beats them all.
One would be super rich by now if they just knew from the beginning that BTC is less than $1000.


The problem I think lies in the media since they are muting the information about BTC to the public. All they know is crypto is a scam. Institutions and JP Morgan said it too late when the price went to the roof while the recession already struck.

But when it's about history repeating itself, the scams of this world are also repeating over and over. Who knows if all these including BTC will turn out to be a scam, after all, this is just experimental.

The problem is that bitcoin showed such crazy profitability because the cryptoindustry was new, financial injections (investments) into which very quickly inflated capitalization.

The subsequent rally will probably not be as rapid as over the past 10 years.

I don’t dream of seeing the same return of 34600%, ROI should still be higher than that of gold or real estate.

There's no way the Bitcoin price could hit 8 digits, because the BTC market cap would be bigger than the global GDP.
All those "What if you bought BTC back in 2010?" forum posts are pointless. Nobody believed back in 2010 or 2014, that the Bitcoin price in 2024 would be 50K USD. You could make the same "what if you bought" posts about every big altcoin as well. What if you bought ethereum back in 2015, when the price of one ETH was around one dollar? Such questions doesn't make any sense anymore.
It's like asking, "what if you picked the same sequence of numbers, that won the lottery?"
The prices of Gold, real estate and BTC are going up mostly because the fiat currencies are devaluating, not because Gold, BTC and real estate are becoming more valuable.

Stories comparing investing in bitcoin to investing in gold and real estate are discussed every day. That's because we've all seen how bitcoin prices skyrocketed in the past, but give us a chance to go back 10 years and we knew nothing about it. I bet you that you or I or everyone here will not dare to invest in bitcoin and we will choose gold or real estate.

Furthermore, as some others have said, what happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again in the future. The future is unpredictable and we also won't know what will happen to bitcoin in 2034. Therefore, claiming that investing in bitcoin will bring better results than gold or real estate after 10 years is not convincing.

It doesn't make sense to compare the profit between gold, real estate and Bitcoin.

Gold was invented since 4 Billion years ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold).

Real estate is valuable because there are many people want to live.

While Bitcoin, it was invented since 2009, it's not that important compared to real estate where you need to have it in order to live, not every people have access to technology on that time because it was expensive.

History repeats, but you shouldn't forget about the risk.

People will keep blaming bitcoin for not making them instant millionaire ,  and this is what will happen in the future because of their stupidity not trusting bitcoin and yeah some invested choosing Gold and Real estate .
but we in crypto will laugh at them when time comes that this is going to happen.

There is no more crazy gains in Bitcoin because many people are now in Bitcoin than before, this is why you should always get into something when nobody want to believe in it, when everyone is already talking about it then it's already too late, but still, I can't fade the fact that Bitcoin can still do incredible numbers in the future, there is still volatility and manipulation in this space so anything can happen in the future that can bring newer opportunity.

In the future, the volatility of Bitcoin will not be as insane as the past, there will be more confidence in Bitcoin than we are seeing now, it could turn into gold like investment or even stocks, but we are still far from that right now, in the future the real scarcity of Bitcoin will begin and with 21 million max supply I believe that Bitcoin will be the best investment to ever existed.

If I say that Bitcoin is overpriced at 50,000 what will others say in the future when it's trading at $500,000 or there are people still thinking that it's impossible? It must have been the same thought when Bitcoin hit $1000 in the past, $10,000 must have felt too unrealistic.

No one know how high bitcoin price will be in future, but the possibility of bitcoin price getting high with timeline is higher, because investors and institutions have now gain so much interest in bitcoin, compared to ten years back, that people hardly know bitcoin. However, we shouldn't use the past record to predict the future because it is not a guarantee.

Gold has been there for a very long time, and has be confirmed as a safe haven, but bitcoin is a baby just 14yrs and it has outperform every other assets, and it has shown that it is one of the best investment, infact it is the best investment currently. This circle is different and we can see bitcoin price higher than what we expected because of the approval of bitcoin ETF. Anyone that have his bitcoin investment, should hodli and see bitcoin as part of his life so that in future you will benefit from its compounding value. Do not put all your investment in bitcoin.

Bitcoin was the greatest opportunity and investment, especially 10 years ago because it was the first complete cryptocurrency. Imagine we live in a society where money doesn't exist and then someone invents money but in a limited quantity. Then slowly people discover that there is a new thing called money and some people want to buy it early. Then, people understand that there is money and everyone wants to get it because how cool it is but in exchange of getting 1 money (1 btc), you have to do more job than you had to do in 2010 because everyone wants money and demand increases.
I know this is not a good explanation but bitcoin is a new money in this world, that's why this asset will increase in value but people will still always make mistakes of not buying it.

There is a problem with this approach. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns.

Maybe gold will become the king of assets in the next 10 years and real estate won’t have any action. The possibility is small but not completely nonexistent.

A diversified portfolio is your friend. 15% gold, 30% btc, 5% alts, 10% stocks, 10%cash, 20% real estate, 10% bonds is a nice balanced portfolio. You can fiddle with the numbers of course, the point is that you shouldn’t go all in on one asset.

Well the past doesn't define the future so taking the risk to invest long term especially 10 years from now we definitely have no idea if things will be the same as the past ten years but we all know that it is worth trying since we are talking about Bitcoin here. For me the chances of having much more profits in the next ten years if we are gonna invest right now is quiet positive due to technological innovation and of course massive adoption whereas compared to the past that for me is like a trial and error thing for most investors and enthusiasts the reason why they don't pay much attention to their hodlings that resulted into losing the keys and funds.

In the present days things are different because we already have learnt from the past, so right now, most of us are way more careful and hopeful that good things will happen again. But the only problem with todays Bitcoin investment is that whales tends to play with the market that is why we need to be aware of that so we can go with the flow.

Yes it is regretful that we were not able to acquire bitcoin back when it was still in its early times. Just thinking about how different my life would have been if my family had invested in Bitcoin back then. But 10 years ago is a completely different era. Moreover 2009 when Bitcoin was first launched.

First of all, technology at that time was not as advanced as it is now. Internet was not really as accessible as it is now at least in some countries especially third world ones. Those who knew about Bitcoin at that time in my country would have been people working in either finance or tech. Most citizens would not have known about Bitcoin. 10 years ago, some people did not even have the chance of buying Bitcoin. Well, anyway. Today is a new day. Internet is very much accessible by people in all ages and even social classes. You don't have to be super rich to buy Bitcoin now. So yes we all should invest before it gets too late again

Capital allocation is only suitable for people with large or significant capital, it is not effective for people with small capital who want to increase capital. And I think bitcoin is the perfect answer for those willing to take risks in search of more significant returns.

In my opinion, people with little capital should only focus on 1 or 2 assets to achieve maximum profits instead of diversifying too much which will reduce their profits. I agree with OP, bitcoin should be the choice in this day and age where its returns are more significant than other investments. But we also need to realize that high profits come with high risks, everything is proportional to each other.

To see the clear picture and get helpful answers, I suggest to put on the other side a list of unsuccessful investments. OP has mentioned gold, bitcoin and property investments, showed how $1000 turned into hundred thousands. I havent googled much, but offhand I can name Twitter purchase. Suppose you have invested in Twitter. During two last years the value of your investment has decreased. Found list (https://latinamericanpost.com/business-and-finance/billion-dollar-losses-5-big-investments-that-failed/) of unsuccessful investment. HP have bought Autonomy and face multimillion value loss of a company they have just purchased.

So OP, when asking why people make mistakes and did not invest on early stage, think about all the unsuccessful investments people made. Because I feel like ration of successful: unsuccessful early investments are greatly below 1.

As far as I know, many institutional investors in gold are already pulling out their capital investments here to switch to Bitcoin investments. This is what I know since the SEC US approved the bitcoin spot ETF.

Which, for me, is no longer surprising because institutional investors now find it easy for them to buy Bitcoin from their usual way of putting their capital, to be honest.
Although I am not saying that all Gold investors are transferring their capital into it, of course not. It's just like some of them only.

When the market price of Bitcoin increases, gold investors also benefit because the price of gold per gram also increases.
Many speculators will analyze the current market traffic until they come to the conclusion that Bitcoin is better than gold and that profits can be returned more quickly on Bitcoin than gold.

You see, investing is a rollercoaster and looking back it's easy to wish we'd bet big on Bitcoin. But predicting what comes next is like reading tea leaves. Sure Bitcoin boomed but past success isn't a crystal ball. I mean spreading your bets across things like gold, real estate and crypto helps soften the blows. Each has its own quirks and potential wins. It's a wild ride and nobody's got a foolproof roadmap

Russians have a proverb: if grandmother had a mustache, she would be grandfather. ;D
What do the words “if we invested” mean? There are many people who regret mistakes, and there are plenty of them among us. But can we guess what tomorrow has in store for us? There is a simple solution; today we are more competent, and there is no need to doubt what has been proven many times. But again, we invest according to our capabilities; there is no need to deprive ourselves of health and normal life for the sake of tomorrow coming in ten years. This desired tomorrow may not come while we save on everything. Invest with understanding, and do not regret the milk that has already been spilled.

Indeed, many investors are hesitant to invest until they see results, this might be due to their past experiences with unsuccessful investments. Only a few individuals are willing to take the risk, usually those who have the courage and were fortunate enough to invest early on.

Many people  years back who failed to invest in Bitcoin had this same mindset that Bitcoin price might not progress to the extent of competing with investments in gold and in real estates. Bitcoin then didn't seem like an investment that could change lives, who would have taken it seriously then?Now, the evidence is clear and everyone is entitled to go for what they are comfortable with but I am very certain that lots of people who ain't convinced yet about the wonders of Bitcoin now will come back in few years to come regretting why they didn't invest when the conditions for investing were still very fair.

Investment is all about taking risks, while you are anticipating Returns on your Investment, also anticipate loss. Some investments are not always attractive and convincing but we just have to take that risk.The most important thing is, we will be saving ourselves from unnecessary regrets for not investing if at the end the investment turns out well. I have chosen to stick to Bitcoin investment and I'm ready to take that risk.

This is a nice discussion, I think there is a better way to doing this, acquiring bitcoins in bit by bit, that will help anyone to get as many as they can acquire in a matter of time. So it is not compulsory to invest $1000 at once when you don't have anything to fall back to.
I do really think , the price of bitcoins will keep going up due to its operating mechanism in as much as more people get into bitcoins and it's use case increases

Every four years there are always tons of people thinking about how they wish they had bought Bitcoin in the past. Some of them buy, most of them don't lol, and they keep missing out on the best wealth creation vehicle in the world.

Actually, everyone knows that those are familiar with Bitcoin and investing. Don't expect all the population of the world to invest in Bitcoin. Because a lot of people are not familiar with Bitcoin. However, we are taking lessons from the past, and that's the reason why the price of bitcoins skyrocket nowadays. That means new investors become interested in Bitcoin as well as old investors. A few people may not take lessons, but it will be a small percentage. Because those are introduced to cryptocurrency, they won't leave that. 

It is not a mistake, some people never see it as worth taking especially if they don't understand. So we don't expect that everyone will consider and take this opportunity because investing is just for risk-takers, many people are just prefer to just simply work. In fact, even though Bitcoin has become too popular now, we still see people ignoring this. It means that not all have interests and we can't force them, even in investing in gold and real estate, only a few have the courage.

 - knowledge and money -- these are the factors why people don't decide to invest.

Sometimes the mistake occurs not because we are not able to accept the pressure when bitcoin is declining but instead occurs because when we are impatient when bitcoin is in a positive trend.
This happened to me who was not once in the previous few years so that even though I still made a profit in the investment I made but on the other hand it became not optimal because of my haste which was unable to resist the temptation to take advantage of what I had planted in the investment I made.
Honestly, things like this even though it is a regret but it can continue to repeat and we don't do it once because indeed the toughest temptation is apart from having to be patient when bitcoin is in a crash but on the other hand wanting to take advantage when bitcoin is bullish always becomes a situation that is very difficult to resist so that the plans we want to build, especially when we have set a limit where we want to sell, become a little disturbed.

The volatility is the game - It's the whole essence of Bitcoin in existence.... If you wanna evade the bearish trend because your coin worth reduces everytime, then you won't stand the fact that inflation hits your country's economy from every single year.

---

Bitcoin isn't gonna move up the trend - maybe to a hundred thousand just very soon... It'll take years off of this period - especially since there's alot to fix in place. AFAIK, the more it sells off; the more global recognition it gets, the more it tends to increase in price.

Naah, it's not like that, Bitcoin still has super potential but the 350 figure on the current market valuation is not likely possible and it might not be possible even in the coming years as well. Having such expectations ahh is not likely a wise action.

TBH, on the current level where the market is already mature to the $T market capital with the growth in the coming timeline and more maturity it will stabilize the fundamentals and volatility, it was reported many times that with more and more distribution of coins among the community it will make bitcoin more reliable and less volatile, because now the power is getting diversified so the centralized actions which were causing a volatility in market will come to an elimination now except for the Black Swan events and community fuds.

Yes, even today we can project large returns with bitcoin, but it is somewhat a bad habit of the community to aim for a large multiplier.  (hey, I love them too)

 A gain of +5% is a good return, but the point is that new bitcoin "investors" want wealth, and they forget about adoption, hey!, board bitcoin discussion here, Right?, If you enter with the idea of adoption you will have no problems with a 5% profit.

There is no disputing fact that bitcoin is the best in-terms of ROI but let’s roll this back how many people had trusted bitcoin in that past or believe it could go this far and generate this kind of returns, I will tell you they were few and even those few some got the bitcoin through faucets or other than. Even Michael Saylor himself was one of those who thought of it as a volatile currency that wouldn’t last this much. The few that actually invested part of them took profit when they saw it turn to $10k and only few actually left it that way, that’s why I always say respect to them early investors and long holders they paved the way with there patience.



In as much as bitcoin is forever increasing and we can only speculate its price currently I don’t see bitcoin giving out the returns it did In the past 15 years in its next 39 years because as we grow more the volatility rate of bitcoin is decreasing and the also as the market price increases, the volume needed to push it up increases also. A smaller volume like In the last won’t shift it now, more of the reason why low cap Altcoins move up quickly. So 300x is something that will take a much much longer time to arrive from now

Bitcoin was still on its infancy during that time and this comparison would certainly be in favor of Bitcoin. The traditional assets don't move like that as they're more established and there won't be that much fluctuation anymore except with the real estate. Going on with today's price of Bitcoin and going back to its after a decade, we may have a lesser gain but I think that Bitcoin is still going to be the winner by that time.

As time goes by for Bitcoin, the increase is decreasing and if you've noticed that. From all of the ATHs, you can count how many times it had grown from the former ATH that it has got. So, those that have got in too early like under 2014 were the luckiest but I don't think that many of them are still holding when you have made like 10x-20x, you'd probably sell and that's the main point why many have sold a lot in the past. But as about doing the same mistake again, I wouldn't make the same mistake as I did in the last bull run that even before it, I've sold terribly.

We can't judge people who sold early because we have our own needs. Lucky for you if you have other means to sustain your living. But if you are relying from the profits that you can make out of this market, the likelihood that you will sell of is always there. So it is not about your belief on this market but sometimes it is your financial capability to hold your assets.

Well, bitcoin is not for all people, I guess. No matter how popular or loud bitcoin's name, if the person doesn't have a slight idea about what bitcoin is or how you will earn bitcoin, they will never engage in that, or even if they engage in or start investing in bitcoin, if they stamble once, they will quit immediately. That's the common mistake of those beginners in trading, but we can't blame them as it is scary for a newbie to experience losing in their first experience in bitcoin investment. So the practical way is that those newbies should have a guide or even a trainer for them to efficiently invest in bitcoin, but of course it will take some expenses. The only thing that matters is how a newbie in bitcoin can cope with and adopt it; they should be the ones that will make themselves grow in bitcoin in order to earn on it. But if someone has the idea or knowledge of bitcoin but is still missing the opportunity to invest in it, then it's their loss for not taking the risk.

I don't consider it a mistake. Lets face facts, the end point of all of these is to earn a living and have a family that is somewhat comfortable. So if you say you want to invest in real estate more than gold or Bitcoin, its an option of choice and what you actually need from the financial market. Some people only need to have  one hundred thousand dollars in their accounts and not any more while some like Musk prefers to have a billion or even a trillion, their investment ideas and expectations are entirely not the same.

If one invests in Bitcoin and sees the need to sell off to solve a challenge, I don't see no big deal in it

Yeah, I am not judging them but I have my shortcomings as well. I've sold a lot during the early days and it's because of the life situation that I have to deal with and I have encountered. And that's why I understand those that have managed to sell too early. I was just saying that if ever there have been early adopters, many of them probably sold a lot and that's why kudos to those that have diamond hands. Even if they've sold handful of it, they're still holding a lot of it.

And from the market that goes on up to this point and with the upcoming years, they're already in profit no matter what happens to bitcoin because they've bought it at a very discounted price and that's the reward that they deserve for believing to Bitcoin at an early stage when majority of the people don't and haven't heard it yet back then.

Everyone knew that Bitcoin will reach 100k back in 2017, so of course they didn't sell at $20k and missed out on an opportunity to take huge profits and buy back at 15 times lower price in the bear market. Then in 2021 everyone knew it would reach $100k and the story repeated again with crash and a bear market.

You are right that in general the price will increase in this cycle, but no one has the slightest idea where the top will be, so waiting for some price level because some reach people predicted is will be very counter-productive for your investment.

Well I even regret not caring about Bitcoin in the past. I just heard his name a lot and ignored him. So this time I don't want any regrets again. So I started investing and accumulating BTC since the bear market started. Even since the price of BTC was still quite expensive at that time. But fortunately, after I accumulated using the DCA method, I now have a fairly low average purchase price and have doubled my profits at the current price. But I still invest in other things too. Because for me DIversification is the most important thing.

There are some bear markets, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2022 and from your account registration date, I guess you implied about 2022 and 2023 bear market.

I know you even could invest earlier than 2022 or 2023, before you joined Bitcointalk like in 2021. Could you share a time when you started your first investment in Bitcoin, please.

If you invested in 2022, price was cheap but if you invested in 2021, price was more expensive. Again, please share that did you begin your investment in 2021?

DCA is a good strategy for investors in Bitcoin. It can help them to accumulate Bitcoin regularly and without headache and need to find bottoms, good entries. This strategy helps investors to gradually spend big capital for their investment, without pressure of spending money.

History may repeat but not all.

Although the astounding growth of Bitcoin is true, it can hardly be used to encourage somebody to invest at this point. Because it simply won't repeat. Not the level of growth, not the speed of such growth, not the profit. We have to be realistic and trim down our expectations. A decade from now, will Bitcoin grow 34,600% percent? I can say with certainty that it won't. There will still be profit, of course, but we probably can't even grow x10 anymore.

Some history doesn't repeat again and again. The train will leave at some point. And we can actually miss it just as we've missed Bitcoin at $0.001.

I don't know how you are calculating Things but for sure 350x from the actual price seems impossible to happen, but the magic is that even if you wrote this message some years ago when bitcoin was under 10$ someone will read the messages and think that it's exaggerating and impossible to happen too

If I say to you to invest in a meme coin right now and hold it for 10 years, will you do it?
If I say to you to invest in some low market cap coin right now, will you do it?

That's how people think about Bitcoin in 2014 that's why only a few people risked their money and invested in it. Now that we are in 2024, Bitcoin has been known worldwide already hence, many investors are trying to buy it. It's not a mistake that those who knew Bitcoin way back didn't invest, but they're just scared to risk their hard-earned money into something that they didn't even know because Bitcoin at that time was a new asset.

History repeats? and Again? Well, if we look at the price history of Bitcoin, it might seem that history is repeating itself, but that isn't always the case. I saw the price of Bitcoin at 4 digits way back in 2017-2018 and didn't invest at that time. Why? It's because I'm scared since I'm not that knowledgeable enough. Did I commit a mistake then? I would say no, but emotions got me at that time since I was a newbie.

If we know everything that will happen in advance, we will really choose the best things for ourselves. I admit that 10 years ago I only saw bitcoin as a scam model, but the process of exposure to it has changed convinced that I was wrong in actually understanding anything about it.

Investing is not just about thinking goals, and simply because not everyone is the same, the truth is that it is not for the majority. The nature of the game is that the few will see the opportunity and take advantage. Everything that has passed should be viewed as a lesson to foster the current and future journey. I think comparing different markets is always unconvincing because each of us does not have the same financial perspective. Similar to people with a lot of money looking for stability rather than taking risks to increase their wealth, diversification is also a term for balancing the opportunities they know about. The choice is up to each of us. I don't like navigation that forces us to choose anything, because investing is no different from driving, you have to understand how the car operates to be able to drive it safely.

There's no such certainty into this world and into those people who had believed Bitcoin into its earliest days or years are the ones who did really make some huge profit when this market boomed up.
Even themselves didnt expect that they would be able to get soo much profits but of course we do know that not all are really that on the same situation on which there are tons who had lost their wallets,
sold early and other issues on which they cant be able to get their coins back or have been able to lose it out as years passed and checked later on on the time that Bitcoin did make out some noise.

I have already hat been able to experience bullrun on 2x i can say on which i do really agree on that repeating on the same mistakes again and again.I've been wary about on that 3k dump and with that 15k dump
between those last 2 runs on which it is really just that a waste opportunity that i havent been able to stash up tons into those times on which it did really ends up on the
same result or outcome when bull run comes on which you are getting left behind just because you didnt stick into those main projects or coins.

It is not only about having fails with previous investments and experience, but OP ask why we wait and did not but early (and give some examples of successful investments), and completely forget about all those fails with 2017-2020 ICOs. Investing early in Bitcoin is just one example of success, but at least on this forum we can find thousand of ICOs that failed or became abandoned after soft cap being raised.

What is his call and idea? To look invest early ? Or to look for gems ? But that is what we have been here all the time. So nothing new he has said, and all of us not making that mistake he was talking about.

Gold and Bitcoin are really solid to test the profits in hindsight because there are actual charts to rely on (gold is a little less reliable than Bitcoin in this regard because there can be different gold, but still). As for real estate, I don't think we can confidently say that a real estate investment would bring 10x-15x profit over 10 years because property can be very different, and local markets are also very different.
Bitcoin looks great, but those were the years of great opportunity. The op speculates that perhaps we'll see 346x profit over the next 10 years, but I really don't think anything close to it is going to happen because, as market capitalization grows, more and more is required to push the price up.

I have a slightly different opinion on real estate as it's not a guaranteed return as it depends on a lot of factors and I have seen some plots being idle from decades and useless so real estate is bit complicated one needs to do proper research before investing into it so 10x or 15x is not an easy feet to achieve. But agreed with gold as it has gained little over 2x in a decade. The problem lies with our mindset is that we expect quick profit or we are too carried away during the bear market we end up selling everything. I think we need to earn form mistake and give a chance to Bitcoin but the kind of prediction you have made about a whopping 8 digit seemed to be exaggerated for me but I may be wrong and short sighted.

10 years ago Bitcoin was still something relatively new (although some say it still is today), and it really doesn't make much sense to compare gold and real estate with investing in Bitcoin in relation to that period. It is not only about trust, but also the fact that even today people prefer to invest in something tangible, rather than in something that the majority still do not understand and can hardly understand the virtual value of something like Bitcoin.


Regardless of the optimism that I personally have, I still do not think that someone who invests in Bitcoin today will in 10 years make the kind of profits that were made in the past. I expect that then the price will be in six digits, but I am not inclined to believe that it will be more than x10 compared to today's price. Of course, this is not a bad price - but in 10 years, $500k will have much less purchasing power than today.

Well, I have never invested in gold before which I don't know the benefits or the rewards that attached to those that will hodl long or short for the right time to come before they can sell, but I'm used to BTC investment and I have invested little money in BTC ten years ago which am waiting for the price to reach my satisfaction before I can sell and it will increase my wealth.

 I know that, there will be massive bull run in the future that will make the price of BTC to hit $80k which is the price investors are waiting to see in the market before they will be move  to trade in the market.

Yes, its not really something that gives even that 10x 15x return as been mentioned. It might be able to have that some folds but wont really be that into these multipliers not unless if the lot or property did really
become in part of a very heavily development kind of location then it could be possible but if not then reaching out those numbers or multipliers is really that hard. This is why tons of investors did really go to crypto
because they could be able to get 10-100x easily but of course the risks involved isnt something that getting in line with those traditional investments that we do know.

If you do have the funds then you could really actually having those both options as long you could really be able to handle it out then there would really be no issues.
Missed out opportunities are common and this is why we do our very best on not to miss out the next one but due to some reasons then we do repeat
on the same mistakes all over again.

I believe that the price of Bitcoin will increase but reaching $100k - $150k remains uncertain. However, I will continue accumulating Bitcoin believing that I could make a profit even if it never grows that much because of the volatility of the market. Having time to buy during the market correction and sell during the pump is a usual activity in the market.

I was certain that there was no quitting in here now. Yes, I missed buying 10 years ago because of doubts but as I already understand and experience the benefits of Bitcoin, I don't think I have to miss it again.

This was the main reason why there were only a few people who invested their money in bitcoins back then and it adds more people when they see the price increase each year but there are also some others that are still in doubt when it comes to investment until they see the price yet increase over and over again. Right now, not only some people who joined us but some huge companies as well that were in doubt back then but they are now one of us and others are joining as well especially this season where the price is expected to increase even more.

Gold is a good investment, however it really requires that you hold it for periods of time that are simply too long for most people, also there are many investors that do not like the volatility of bitcoin, but gold can be extremely volatile as well, especially when the economy is not doing well and there is a lot of fear on the air, as those are the moments in which gold begins to make abrupt movements that are very similar to what you can see in the bitcoin market.

I think the main problem people have with Bitcoin is that they haven't been around from the start. They feel like left out from the initial high returns and don't want to invest now when the prices are high. But we need to get away from the thinking that Bitcoin was worth 1 or 100 USD and wait for the prices to fall again. This was such a long time ago before Bitcoins where widely known. We are now living in the new normal and need to adapt to it. Waiting 10 years only with the small hope of falling prices to invest our Bitcoin is not a good idea. Inflation is just going to eat up our purchase power, we need to invest our money today and not wait too long. Gold was for my grandparents what is Bitcoin for me today. I wouldn't invest any money in Gold now because the price is way too high, I just don't see any value in it anymore. As for real estate, I think that there is some value in it and eventually everybody should invest it. Paying for rent your whole life is not going to be a good idea. If you somehow can manage to get your hands on some apartment or house where you want to live in yourself, then you can save a lot of money, assuming the property is in a good condition and you don't have to invest so much money on repairs.   

Actually, you can't lose $1000. For this to happen, Bitcoin will have to go to zero, which is not very realistic. Every next cycle's bottom is around the previous cycle's top: previous cycle's top was around $69k so if you invest now, you can't lose anything, you can only gain or break even at worst. 

Seeing the positive and negative investment outcomes side by side might help you gain a more realistic and practical perspective of what is feasible. It's common for people to lose sight of the fact that the likelihood of their investment failing is considerably higher than that of becoming the next great success story. Furthermore, there's no assurance that their gains will hold up even if they do experience some. Therefore, it's important to consider the risks as well as the potential rewards.

You know the interesting part of all of this? You’d make profit from all of them. Regarding Bitcoin, we know better now but looking back at 10 years ago, you never really knew what today would be if it’d be an abandoned idea or as huge as we’ve seen it. I’d say that if you have enough money (really wealthy), diversify your investments. Invest in all 3 of them after all, you’ll make profit from all.

Investing in gold, real estate, and bitcoin can be done simultaneously to make it a long-term investment. It will actually help; I cannot say no. So if I only had a lot of money, that's all I would hesitate to invest in.

But if the majority is the basis, of course, because I have knowledge and ideas about Bitcoin, I will choose to invest in or prioritize Bitcoin over real estate and gold. Because at this time we are in an uptrend where the chances are faster that the price value of Bitcoin will rise.

It is sad because a lot of people had the opportunity and had the opportunity to be patient and yet failed to do so.  It is pretty funny though that we still hear the same nonsense though, "it is tulips", "it is a ponzi", "it will crash", "it doesn't have a use" etc.  I suspect that in another 10 years there will be still people saying similar things.  Likewise, 10-14 years ago, yes, there was a larger chance bitcoin could fail, a lot big chance that bitcoin would take the "worth very little" path as opposed to the "worth a lot" path.  Every year since then the chance that bitcoin would be worth very little in fiat terms has decreased whereas the opposite has increased.

I told a lot of people they should just put a few hundred or a few thousand dollars in bitcoin between 2010 and 2013 with similar arguments:  at worst you'd lose your initial money and at best you'd do really well.  It was a great example of an asymmetric risk / reward. 

That is probably one of the magic of Bitcoin getting that kind of return is really insane compared to other tangible investments like gold and real estate, Still, it is a risky investment because compared to the two Bitcoin is just a new thing that there was no proof of income on it, so there was no guarantee that Bitcoin investment is going to be profitable in the future, we dont really know if Bitcoin is still going to exist in the coming years, is it going to still exist after 5 years? plus the market is just so volatile, that something could easily come up and affect the market price, what happens if a pandemic hits? what would happen if war hit? or a zombie apocalypse how is it going to affect the market of Bitcoin, it's kind of difficult to predict that because it also wasn't a tangible asset like real estate.

Gold for sure is one the best investment out there but there is just one big problem with it the supply of it, we just doesnt know the supply of gold, I mean there could be so much gold here on earth that we dont know, and that might affect the price of gold in the market.

Real estate, in my opinion, is still going to be the end game, personally, I would still end up buying real estate because it is probably the safest investment or asset that I could make, but I would still buy Bitcoin for sure it already a no brainer for sure with that kind of potential income there was no way that I'm not going to HODL Bitcoin for long term investments, but after getting that profit the main going is going to be real estate just to take the risk in that money and put it on something that is gonna give me guaranteed income.

The future's a mystery, even for crypto. Bitcoin might moonwalk to Mars, or, you know, not. Past wins don't guarantee future trophies. Investing is all about taking calculated risks, but don't go YOLO like it's the last pizza slice. Research, understand Bitcoin's wild swings, and only invest what wouldn't make you cry if it vanished faster than a magician's rabbit. FOMO is real, but don't let it cloud your judgment.

Putting all your eggs in one basket, even a shiny Bitcoin basket, ain't the smartest move. Spread things out across different investments like stocks, bonds, maybe even a real estate taco stand – diversification is your friend. Regretting missed opportunities stings, but dwelling on it won't help. Learn from it, do your research, and make informed choices for the future. New opportunities pop up like mushrooms after a rain, so don't get stuck in the "what if" trap.

Numbers don't lie indeed but this will depnd on your risk appetite as an investor. High risk means high rewards and this is the bottomline here. If you're an early investor of Bitcoin and you managed to hold it for years, or for this long, then for sure you are in huge profit. If you are after real estate investment, there are other ways to increase the projected profit. Perhaps having a condo unit and making it an Air BNB, which do you think will earn more? However capital would be bigger in this case but if it is consistency then this could be an option. With Gold, you could increase the value by physical reformation through accessories and such.

My point here is that you don't have to be one-sided with how you will make use of an investment. Either of these three would be a great choice however, investments aren't always a waiting game. If you're seeking for more then you simply have control of other aspects that could increase the gain you want to project. Again, risk appetite is the answer on which should you invest your money with, as well as your circumstances as an investor.

Of course one of bitcoin's advantages had been that it was a very new asset class and therefore a paradigm shifting technology, and so it is likely a bit unfair to measure bitcoin's performance to the other asset classes, especially starting bitcoin at less than a dollar or even if we might agree to start bitcoin at $5 in the beginning of 2012, that also might be a bit unfair, but at least we are starting from a positive value and bitcoin was still finding value and market price.  So yeah, if we start from $5 then bitcoin has 10,000x returns from the beginning of 2012.

But OP mentioned 10 years, but bitcoin was in a bit of a bouncing around period 10 years ago, so it is not really very fair to measure from the bounding around areas... If we use the 2013 top then we get less than 40x, and if we use $1k as our starting off point, then we get 50x.. but then maybe if we consider BTC's correction period between $160 and $300 for most of 2015, and then that would be a lot of time spent around $250, so then that would end up being around a 200x price appreciation over 8.5 years.. which seems a much more fair starting point for bitcoin. but  it still does not quite capture 10 years... and then when I go back and look at OPs numbers, he is picking the lowest correction point in 2014  and maybe that correction point of $160-ish was in January 2015.. . seems like he is just making shit up rather than attempting to be representative of more likely scenarios.. because no body bought bitcoin at the bottom.. it was a flash anyhow...so it would have been impossible to buy very much bitcoin at the exact peak of the bottom.

Even though bitcoin's upside potential has been dampened quite a bit from its beginning years, it is way from being a mature asset class, so bitcoin still likely has around 20,000x to increase in value, even though it could take 50 to 200 years to reach its fair value.

So how to go forward? Each of us has to decide, and yeah there are quite a few early adopters and even financial institutions and rich folks who starting to try to front load the investment and to front run the normies, while at the same time many of the longer term bitcoiners have already front run the BIGGER players.. and there probably is still a bit of time to continue to front run some of them, even though the news about bitcoin is getting spread more and more... but at the same time, everyone continues to both erroneously believe that they are too late and also to erroneously believe that bitcoin is a mature asset class... which it is far from mature.. but whatever, you don't have to believe me, you can either fail to invest in it or you can sell too much too soon because you misunderstand what bitcoin is and its ongoing upward potential.


Look at bitcoin's 200-WMA, and the lowest it has ever been is 20% per year... so yeah that is going to become less and less with the passage of time, but there is no real sign that bitcoin is diminishing as an asset class, and the 200-WMA is on track to finish this next six month anywhere between 32% and 44% annualized (measuring from the end of November 2023 to the end of May).. you can see on my entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)..


Bitcoin should be considered a long term investment of 4-10 years or longer, and you shoudl not be fucking around with selling any of it, and if you are tempted to take profits, that likely means that you invested too much, and you have to make sure you have your financial shit together so that you don't have to sell any of your bitcoin until a time of your choosing and hopefully longer than a full cycle.. and yeah if you keep accumulating until you reach a point in which you have too many bitcoin, then you would be at liberty to either start selling some or maybe diversifying into other investments.. but you have to get to the point of over accumulation before you start to screw around with selling merely because you happen to be in profits. .and if you don't have enough BTC, then it is not going to do you a whole hell of a lot of good to sell some of them because you might not be able to buy them back for at the same price or cheaper.. so you have to be careful with those kinds of practices in regards to bitcoin, especially if you don't have enough.


Yeah, a lot of people sold in 2017 too on the way up in the $1k to $3k range and they were thinking that they would buy back lower.. which frequently does not work out too well. Each of us should be careful when we sell expecting to buy back cheaper and thinking that we are gong to know when to buy back and how much of a dip there is going to be or how long it is going to last.

It is probably not that smart to try to trade one of the best (if not the best) asset that has ever been invented (discovered), and while the greatest wealth transfer in history is in the process of going on and will likely continue for the next 50 years or more, it is probably better to be on the receiving side of that wealth transfer... that is transferring wealth from no coiners and low coiners to those who are accumulating and holding coin.


Good luck with that.  10x is gold parrity, and bitcoin is likely around 1,000x better than gold. .. so I will agree that we might have some troubles getting between 50x and 1000x gold (or it might take some time to play out)... but getting to gold parity and then also 10x better than gold should not be too big of a deal.. even though it could take 2-3 cycles... perhaps?  who knows how  long it will end up taking.. . but gold parity within this cycle is within grasp, but surely it is not guaranteed to happen, but gold parity would not even be close to bitcoin's top.

remember another thing is that there are currently around $ 1 quadrillion in monetized assets that could be bitcoin's target market.  Some people think that bitcoin's addressable market is higher than that, but I think that we would need to get a lot closer to that $1 quadrillion before starting to really consider how many multiples higher it would be able to go. (I am referring to today's dollars not dollar collapse scenarios, even though that will happen too.. even if it could take some time to happen).


Hopefully, you have fixed yourself since 2017-2018..  :D :D :D :D :D

 but like you said, history repeats, and also the same mistakes of individuals repeat, too.  People continue to think bitcoin is mature, overpriced, a bubble, too late, and blah blah blah.. but it is not any of those this.  and it still is not, but still people will continue to either not invest or to sell to early... and sucks to be them.. because bitcoin still has a long way to go, even though it could take a while to get there.


The more I look at what OP did and some of the responses, it seems more and more that OP was spinning, being selective and not very representative.

WE probably could assert some kind of general averages.

1) cash probably is worth about half as much as it was in 2014

2) gold .. we can give him 2x.. no problem. .but since cash debased by half, that seems like a wash at best.

3) equities may have doubled or tripled.. but that would mean that they were just keeping up with inflation, and even if we say that some equities did 4x, then they Only did 2x in real terms if we account for the debasement of cash during the same period.

4) property.. I am not going to agree to 10x to 15x, but maybe we could estimate that they might have done 2x better than equities... on average... and yeah, I am just guessing too..

5) Bitcoin.. I like my 200x number better than op's 350x number since there were a lot of chances to buy BTC in 2015 around $250..

We still get bitcoin beating everything else by magnitudes.. but sure there are going to be some outliers with properties and equities that might have come close to bitcoin's performance, but as a general proposition bitcoin bet everything else.. and bitcoin was generally open to everyone.. just that some folks might have had some difficulties with the technology and their local jurisdiction.. whether there were places to buy it (or people who would sell it for any normie who might have had wanted it.).


Yep, and it sounds like you are going to sell too much too soon, but hey do what you like.  If you believe $100k to $150k is enough for your cornz, then it's your choice.  good luck with that.  You will likely need it.


If you account for the debasement of the dollar, you likely are not making money in all, especially in real terms rather than nominal terms.

Bitcoin has ongoing good chances to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and also to outperform the dollar's level of persistent, consistent and inevitably ongoing debasement.  Good luck if you are investing in that other stuff.


FTFY

The most you can lose is 100% of what you invested, as long as you are not so dumb as to use leverage, then you can lose more than 100%.  Don't be dumb.. just invest regularly.. whle being as aggressive as you can but without devolving into gambling practices, such as using leverage... and such as not maintaining an adequate emergency fund of 3-6 months or more, reserves and float.


If someone only has $10 to $50 per week to diversify, it is kind of dumb to diversify.. .and maybe after a year or two of building their investment portfolio, then diversification might start to make sense.  So start with bitcoin, and don't be diluting your investment, merely because people suggest it to be the right thing to do.. when it is not..  Once you get your bitcoin investment and your emergency fund up to around 6 months each, then maybe at that time you might start to consider some value in diversification, but even then it is not necessary until you start to feel over exposed in one asset, which could take several years before diversification starts to make sense.

But yeah if you don't know what you are investing in and you are afraid of bitcoin then maybe diversify and dilute your investment so much that you might not end up getting much benefit from anything that you are invested into... it is better to buy bitcoin and then learn about it as you go so you end up figuring out why it is not necessary to diversify until you get up to a certain size of a portfolio.. such as 6 months or more of your income/expenses..


People who only have $10 to $50 per week are not going to be able to invest into real estate.

People sometimes are hard headed and even if the chance is in their walkdoor yet they deny that and chooses what not make them lowering their Pride so look at them now?

if this is 10 years back indeed that people chooses real estate and Gold but if we are to be asked now? I'm sure only fool will do the same answer specially if we are talking about people that knows Bitcoin or at least crypto currencies.

Gold is moving very slow, the investors that invented into gold of recent can't weigh up their profits to the profits that investing in Bitcoin has given to its own investors. Gold is an old way of investing and it isn't for the new investors as the investors are looking for what will be exciting to invest into. Good isn't volatile and it's upwards movement is slow therefore it's only good in securing your profits and not investing for big returns. Real estate and Bitcoin is the only two things that I can invest into and I'll prioritize Bitcoin too because with Bitcoin I can be guaranteed that I'll make profits even when I don't make profits immediately. Bitcoin will reach a new all time high after the halving. Real estate too will always be in business as people will need houses therefore it's also a good option.

For me personally, the past is a valuable lesson and I don't think anyone knows that the price of Bitcoin is this high and maybe only a small part of it and that's because they have a strong belief in Bitcoin in the long term. And just like those who did it in a decade and sold it when they felt Bitcoin was at its highest price and sold it when some ATH happened, I think it doesn't matter as long as it is profitable. And I'm sure they will also feel regret when the price of Bitcoin continues to rise from new high to new high. But it will be a lesson for them that Bitcoin will be much more profitable in the long run, at least more than 5 until we feel that the price is the best.
And after Bitcoin prices hit a high of around $66,900 in April 2021, I consider the middle of 2021 to be off to a good start. And I believe history will repeat itself and the price will even be much more expensive than its highest price in the future or in the long term, and continuing to buy gradually is the best choice.

I don't really care about other investments like real estate, gold or others. Because Bitcoin in my opinion is much better than any investment.

Either you have strong belief in Bitcoin future in long term or just want to invest in one cycle, you should take profit with each bull run. Some ideas to take profit with a bull run and with your long term investment.

• Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5483225.0)
• [ANN] JJG Sustainable Bitcoin Withdrawal Strategy (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5479482.0)
• https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

You can't blame them, their instinct is preservation and sometimes those preservation instinct leads to panic when it comes to the price of bitcoin suddenly dumping, sometimes you need to be a little crazy to be investing in bitcoin because you're going to need that steel will to be able to wait out the bad times for the market. I don't really blame them going for the safer choice, it's their money after all and the best thing that we can probably do in this scenario is to just let them be and then regret their actions later on.

Yes, it's a shame that I personally missed this extraordinary opportunity. But more precisely, I didn't miss it, but because I didn't know about it. Because in that year(2009-2014), as I remember, I didn't know about Bitcoin. So if you say regret, maybe what I regret more is that I didn't know anything about Bitcoin that year. Maybe if I had known about Bitcoin that year, maybe I would have invested a few percent of the money I had there (bitcoin). Because I personally like to try new things.
But even so, time still cannot be turned back. So I won't worry too much about my regrets. Because the most important thing is that now I have Bitcoin.
Because if I own bitcoin now, at least in the future I won't regret it as much as I did. Because if you think about it deeply, bitcoin is indeed an extraordinary asset. The reason is, the profits that can be obtained within 10 years look very large.

Maybe the reason why Bitcoin can become a big asset like it is now, maybe because today's times are very supportive of Bitcoin. What I mean here is about technology. Because bitcoin was born in 2009, that year the era will begin to shift towards advanced technology such as smartphones. So basically bitcoin was born along with technological developments. Therefore, as technology advances, Bitcoin also advances.

And about the lack of public trust in Bitcoin. Personally, I don't think this means that these people don't believe in Bitcoin. However, there are several factors that hinder these people. Examples

• Such ignorance as I was before
• Not having adequate technology (such as a cell phone)
• Or also because they think Bitcoin can get to this point just by chance.

So with that said, not many people still trust Bitcoin.

There is never any guarantees - even if something like bitcoin is amongst the best of asymmetric bets (if not the best) that we have available on a wide-spread basis, it still is not guaranteed.... except it might be guaranteed that the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put into it, so long as you do not use leverage.

The various upside possibilities of bitcoin are great, they remain great and they likely are going to continue to remain great, but even those lovely and great upside scenarios are still not guaranteed to play out.

Both things can be true at the same time.

Best asymmetric bet ever, but still not guaranteed, which even means that bitcoin could go to zero...

The way that you allocate into bitcoin and/or any other assets, if you choose to do so, should account for the various scenarios, even if you likely would not need to put a lot of preparations in the bitcoin going to zero scenario.. it still exists.. and even the no coiner and low coiners might put too much emphasis in negative bitcoin scenarios, so they have to live with those kinds of consequences that come from their choices to either not allocate to bitcoin or to too whimpily allocate to bitcoin, which may also end up in their selling too much too soon when they had allocated some value to bitcoin...


I personally do not recommend taking profits every cycle, and I promote ideas of accumulating and overaccumulating prior to starting to fuck around with selling. My investment ideas thread  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719584#msg58719584)talks about accumulation, so don't get distracted into selling (or trading or trying to buy back cheaper blah blah blah) if you have not yet accomplished accumulation.

Once you have reached your over-accumulation status, which could take 4-10 years or more to get to such a point, then you can consider switching to some other strategy and/or adjusting your strategies into something other than accumulation... until you get to a state of overaccumulation, continue to accumulate BTC. and maybe that even means continuing to buy at the top and continuing to buy through a whole cycle.. especially someone still building his BTC portfolio.. and if you are buying 10% of your income in bitcoin, it will take you 10 years before you have even reached a whole year of investment... so if you are trying to get to fuck you status, that would be in the ballpark of 20-30 years of your salary.. so you need a lot of appreciation in your investment to get from 1 year invested to 20-30 years of value in your investment portfolio (hopefully with a good size allocated to BTC).

You do not accumulate bitcoin by selling it, and you are never going to know when is the top..

We don't know what will happen in the future, all we can do is predict, assume, risk and gamble but the calculated risks can make the reaps that can also minimize the loss. As of now bitcoin is becoming inevitable and those who claim that bitcoin will go to zero are living far from reality and we need to ignore them. Bitcoin is moving upwards since the year began and grown beyond the expectations and we are still months away from halving so we can expect rise in the price further for sure.

Many people do not invest in the crypto market because they fear that they could get hacked and their personal and financial data will be stolen.They fear that the level of cryptocurrencies fraud and thefs is increasingly inevitable for them.
Investing in cryptocurrency in general is a good idea,but if you are on the right path and with the right platform. Some people,after so much displayed fear and anxiety,they finally invest in bitcoin,as they think,but unfortunately end up investing in the wrong bitcoin.
  Recently, people who were scared of cryptocurrencies have now begun investing in them.Me I'll advice people to always make your own  research before delving into the cryptospace to invest,no matter the fears,the important thing is having and knowing the right information to begin.

I know that Bitcoin definitely does better (even asides the dollar debasement) but I think that at least, the other investments at least gives some fair gain. If you say it doesn’t because of dollar debasement, that means you’re saying that so far, people who have invested in Gold for the past 10 years has technically earned nothing? Or did I get it wrong?

Can we categorically call this over a decade mistake?
Bitcoin have got just a little above a decade on its existence and with that been the case, it’s too soon to consider this to be some periodic error. Perhaps a more short term approach based on the halving would have been appropriate.
Even with that still, a decade comparison between what would have been a possible expectation from these fields of investment is still an interesting and teaching moment on how opportunities aren’t been taken.

Meanwhile, I might understand why you don’t really have a statistics to prove on real estate but, it would have been interesting to find one.
Even so, you wouldn’t find a $1000 real estate investment that would be very promising in 10years. It’s really rear to have that and you must be real informed to have that sort of investment or perhaps just caught up with luck.

When it comes to Bitcoin,
It’s a whole different story. All you need is to buy and hodl. It’s periodically through the halving and in its short time beat imaginations and what is obtainable in any field of investment. What stops people from doing proper research to have a sense of security and pick up a Bitcoin investment. It’s an asset and currency, get it while it’s still accruing to itself values, you ain’t late.

I am not sure if I will also be around after a decade but it is said that time is likely the safest speculation that Bitcoin will hit a million dollars.

But we do not know how this cycles that keep on changing every time we are on it. It might be quicker for the next few years and cycles to come and we might get too close to it.

I'll hold but I won't miss to sell because that's how it should go and we have to enjoy taking profits.

Yes, know that all investments are going to prosper if they are given enough time to grow. So investing in all of them will be a perfect idea as long as you have all the resources to make it possible. However, allocate the biggest funds for bitcoin as we all know it’s more capable to give us the highest rate of returns, but still invest with caution. All investments have their definite risks, we just have to know how high our tolerance risk will be.

What do you mean by not so sure you’ll be around after a decade? Anyways, Bitcoin will take a longer time to reach that price you talk of. It was easier for Bitcoin when it was worth a lot less than now it is worth as much as $57k. Half a million may be seen as just 10x of the current price, but that’s a lot

Edit: I thought you meant half a million but you get the point.



Of course. One didn’t know better before now. With the knowledge of Bitcoin, of course it should take the higher investment amount since it has done beyond what the others can ever do.

Nothing is certain in this world, as they can be profitable today but suddenly lost their value tomorrow. Even bitcoin can drop to zero value when we least expect it. Same goes with other investments as well. However, if you know how to utilize your funds in those highly potential investments, you can still be in great benefits in the future. Diversification is the key. Be open to all great investments around you and DYOR. That’s the only way you will know how to handle and manage its individual risks, and never put all your eggs in one basket, but diversify.

When ever an asset only has nominal gains and it does not have real gains, then they have not earned (or gained) anything in terms of the cost of living of things that they could purchased, but they did better than keeping their value in dollars.


He means that when it comes to bitcoin, he is a weak hand, and he does not have confidence in it as an investment that will continue to gravitate value into it.

Most likely he does not understand bitcoin very well, and sure if there is some time in which bitcoin seems that it is losing the strength of its investment thesis, then we could get out of it if we can see that in advance. 

if we believe that bitcoin has decently good chances of going to zero all of a sudden or suffering some other kind of sudden crash in value in which we would not be able to get out our value, then we should modify our position size to account for those kinds of possible scenarios.. .that does not mean all or nothing in bitcoin, but still people can choose their position size and some people will end up benefiting more from the ongoing wealth transfer from no-coiners to coiners than others... and your ability to be on the receiving side rather than the losing side may well have to do with your actually having some coin..  Your choice regarding how much of a position size you believe to be a valid trade off, even if you have doubts in the strength of bitcoin's long term investment thesis.


It is possible, with varying degrees that bitcoin could have a top anywhere between $57k and $2 million plus - of course with varying levels of probabilities for each of the price points, and surely the top of this cycle could help inform what might be the range of possibilities for the next cycle, and part of the benefits of any asymmetric bet is that if you do not leverage, then you are only going to lose, at most, 100% of what you had invested.  So it is your choice if you allocate 5% to 25% of your investment portfolio into it (which seems prudent) or some other amount, or not at all.. and then live with the consequences.. and yeah if you  don't invest now, then you can choose to invest later, if bitcoin is still around by that later time that you might reconsider the matter.


One of the positive aspects of a strong asymmetric bet is that you do not necessarily need to invest a lot in order to potentially benefit a lot, but I still think that a 5% of an allocation is on the low end of recommendable and anything up to 25% is reasonable for a beginner.  Of course, anyone can choose to go outside of that range to be more whimpy or to be more aggressive in terms of their chosen allocation.

Bitcoin price movements are quite mainstream, sometimes it can provide quite a large return on the investment we make in it, and vice versa, we can easily lose the money we invest if we don't have the patience to hold it.  No one knows for sure the price of Bitcoin in the future, what is clear is that many people hope that their investment in Bitcoin will provide profits in the future.  Of course, all forms of investment definitely have risks, it all depends on self-confidence to be able to face all the risks.

Everyone has been in a state of doubt and that is normal because volatile assets can rarely make up for what Bitcoin has achieved. We have passed the best moment in bitcoin and maybe ten years ago we didn't think bitcoin would achieve the long rally it has now. Now what we need to do is continue to collect and even though the current rally cannot bring us maximum profits, there is a next rally that we can take advantage of. That's the same as someone's view ten years ago with our thinking now.

I will never regret the delay, but I will really regret it if today I haven't bought the amount of bitcoin that I can afford. Confidence is increasingly being formed in investing in bitcoin and our job is only to try to increase the number of holdings, if we haven't started yet then it would be best to set standards so that the elements of purchasing responsibly are met.

I totally understand and get your point. However, I am asking if you can/will explicitly say that people who invested in Gold has made no gain? I mean… I don’t expect you to because the reason we look at gold the way we do now is that Bitcoin has created history and has made gold look even slower than it is.



I also believe that it possible, I just don’t see it as easy as it had been when Bitcoin was way cheaper and easy to afford. Let’s see how it unfolds, for the least, I expect Bitcoin to go way higher but no one knows how high that could be.

Even the investment in real estate management wouldn't have been the best option, because it depends on how lucrative is the environment of the real estate...their is some real estate that over ten years their is no improvement of development in such environment, remember that profit of someone who is into real estate management commence when their is a serious development in such area, but a situation whereby theirs no serious development of that area I think that you will get loss by now, sometimes their is some site of landed property that continues to depreciate instead of appreciate

For bitcoin, bitcoin is like investment or a project that many people get adopt every day that's is why the value get more changes at a point of new year, so investing in bitcoin is something that we have to understand that it will be more productive to us than investing on what losses value every year, bitcoin doesn't lose value but it adds value and also fluctuates at same time of battling value increase or decrease

You still can't guarantee it because we already experienced it, before no one is expecting that the current Bitcoin price we have right now is what we will experience.
Bitcoin is unexpected so we must be always prepared.
We need to consider a lot of things now especially since we already have a lot of volume, a lot of people already know Bitcoin, etc.

Currently, I am seeing the atmosphere of buying Bitcoin busier than ever. Not only from retail investors, but also from huge demand from large organizations as well as ETF funds. This bull cycle of Bitcoin may go beyond our imagination. I have seen that many people out there, after going through many long months of downtrend, have tortured their psychology, making them always want to sell when Bitcoin grows. This is not wrong, taking profits is never wrong in investing, but on the condition that you will not reinvest again for a long time, otherwise they may have to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price. They are unintentionally trained to have a "locking in gains" mentality without them knowing, because during the downtrend period, if they do not "locking in gains" when there is a profit, the price will turn down immediately afterward. I still have a small amount of money left for buying Bitcoin, I will allocate it all in the near future.

every investment in the world has the same attitude what is important here is that we know
how to handle , and with this try to never seek for bigger returns not unless you are confident about the
coin you are investing but when we are talking about bitcoin then for sure you are facing better return
for longer term of holding.

You are going to have to figure that out yourself.

From my understanding gold had a pretty decent rise between about 2000 and 2011, and it has been pretty stagnant since then, so even if you have nominal gains in gold since 2011, you have not experienced real gains since the dollar has largely debased by a similar amount.

In regards to bitcoin, gold has been performing pretty badly, and you can zoom in and out of this timeline

https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/

right now it takes more than 200 oz of gold to buy 1 BTC, and sure there are ups and downs, but the trend surely looks like gold is losing out to bitcoin, and so the question about whether you need any gold in your portfolio is surely questionable.... especially for anyone who might not even know how to deal with gold (referring to physical gold).. Of course, there is paper gold  which would give you supposed price exposure to gold.. .. and so it is your choice if you think that you need more than a few percentage in your investment portfolio.. and surely bitcoin should probably between 5% and 25% for beginners,

and then you have to figure out how to deal with gainz and whether to reallocate, which is not necessarily smart to reallocate your winners into your losers.. so there are many folks (including yours truly) who are heavily weighted into bitcoin based on largely a conservative allocation into bitcoin, but then when bitcoin gains against everything else, then it becomes a disproportionately large portion of your overall investment portfolio, so then you have to figure out how to (or if) to reallocate.  I do very little reallocation, even though I do shave some off of the top, which is a form of reallocation, but it tends to not be a lot..


Bitcoin is eating gold's lunch and it is going to continue to eat gold's lunch.

Bitcoin is probably around 1,000x better than gold, even though it is right around 1/12th the size of gold.

Sure, it could take 50 to 200 years before bitcoin reaches its fair market value as compared to gold, yet you still have to make a decision on a personal level regarding your allocations and how much you want to keep in gold and if you want to complain about the trends that are likely going to continue. and it might even get worse in terms of more and more folks (individuals, institutions and governments) dropping gold and adding bitcoin.


Of course, no one knows how high bitcoin might go, but you still can think about your own allocation and realize that the most that you can lose is 100% of what you allocated to bitcoin.. so if you are thinking that we are top heavy right now, then maybe instead of investing $100 per week, you invest $10 per week and wait for a correction, and if a correction does not happen, then you may well be regretting that you were overly whimpy.  There are consequences to action and there are also consequences to inaction.

Anther thing is that there might have been guys who were buying a lot of bitcoin between $50k and $70k in 2021, and maybe they ended up front loading their investment (and lump summing), and I would call them dummies if they had a lot of conviction in 2021, but they failed/refused to continue buying throughout 2022 and maybe into 2023, and depending on how much they had front loaded, at some point they would have had gotten back into profits, especially in the last several months, maybe even going back to October 2023 - and it has been pretty much straight up since October 2023, absent a few smaller 10% ish corrections and ONLY 1 correction from $49k to $38.5k.. so I would expect even a few bumps in the road like that should not have had shaken confidence if someone is actually committed and maybe not investing more than they can lose - even if they might have started out by buying fairly BIGgly during some of the relative tops of 2021.

I personally don't valuate BTC based on tops, but instead by bottoms, and surely if you look at BTC bottoms, we have had ongoing moving up of the 200-Week moving average through all of BTC's history, even if we had the lowest level of its growth between mid 2022 and late 2023 with ONLY around 20% annualized during that time, which you can see in my entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591).

When it comes to investment then it all matters about risk taking and this is something that do really differ into each person since not all would really be sharing up on the same level of risk management on which there are ones who could really be able to take up such risks and there are ones who cant really be able to afford and this is why people would really be missing out those opportunities just because
they are afraid on doing or losing money and this is why they wont really be taking such action. This is why it would really be that best that you should really be wary about the risks and its up to you
whether you would really be accepting it and bare with it or really just that simply hold their position and dont do any actions.

Missing opportunities? As it always be and its true that we do never ever learn. On the recent price increase, you would really be able to hear up the noise into the community or even
on social media on which people are really that eager on buying Bitcoin when its pumping. lol

We are on the moon now and bitcoin price has actually surpassed what we wanted as it broke its previous ATH. What was expected to happen and the maximum price increase made Bitcoin become the talk of many people again and now people are starting to see the great potential in Bitcoin. The large demand makes bitcoin increase and investors are ready to sell at the target price, the market will become greener in the last few days and in the future because there will be a big rush in the bitcoin market for some people who take advantage of it

This is truly extraordinary and if we had some money in the last few weeks then today we would have made a huge profit on the good price which is quite significant. Especially for those who have held bitcoin for a long time and the accumulated purchases are much cheaper so that when the price is at its highest it will produce maximum profits. We must be prepared to buy in larger quantities because there will be a next ATH at a much larger price.

Now, even though it looks like this is a perfect motivasion for people to invest in Bitcoin, you still have to put everything into proper context, before you make this comparison.

Now, 10 years ago... Bitcoin was a very controversial topic and also not regulated and accepted in most countries, so the risk of buying bitcoins back then was a lot higher than what it is 10 years later.

Not a lot of people would have risked dumping money into something that was unregulated and not adopted and accepted by a lot of people.

If we are talking about dollars, bitcoin has not reached it's new ATH.

We got up to $64k today, and the ATH from November 2021 is $69k..

Bitcoin is reaching ATHs against various other currencies .. and likely those currencies had been weaker than the dollar in the last 2-ish years.


You are correct.  For some, bitcoin is just becoming investable, both in terms of its market cap and also in terms of its gaining mainstream acceptability.  And, even with all of that, we are still early for anyone thinking that bitcoin is in a bubble or getting mature or any of that blah blah blah bullshit.

It is a little unfair to other assets, but this is where we are at, including that so many other assets have been corrupted by various dollar debt systems, which is harder to accomplish with bitcoin, even though surely folks are going to try to corrupt bitcoin in the same way.. and let's see how it goes... much still to be determined in bitcoin's early days (years) of existence.

But wait o I could remember around November 2021 that was exactly when bitcoin made an incredible growth rate in the market which was about $69k alot of people made a huge profit thinking is going to be permanent that was the hieght of bitcoin ATH before the downtrend of bitcoin...

Aftermost, People thinks that bitcoin will never rise again to such level again not until this year and before then alot is investor who could not bear it had to forge ahead to withdraw their bitcoin investment without think of profit because when you withdraw during a downtrend there will be no profit because the bitcoin value was drastically going downhill...

Currently bitcoin has surpassed all the coin again growing and flourishing to reach that level or even more than of that 2021 ATH because it is uptrend is so fast that it could go far more than the 2021 ATH today bitcoin is $64k making a great progress just with the last 4 months moving faster in the last 2 weeks to gets to this growth it is actually progressing making all the investors very happy and efficient with all their focus on their investments.....

Today almost every living thing on earth want to buy and invest in bitcoin because it actually making a huge progress accumulating alot of profit for the investors indeed bitcoin is just the most precious coin on the earth now...

That's major upset upon buying a real estate asset since you need to make sure that there are plans for urban developments on the land you bought since if nothing happens and it remains stagnant or no anything happening then this will be a waste of your money and time especially if you aim for that investment is to gain a profit for long term.

That's how beautiful of investing on bitcoin since the future is really good and there are a lot of good things still possible to happen so the potential to earn big by holding it for long years is really great. If we see statistics on the price each year we can say that there are great price changes which is good for all long term investors then for sure they are enjoying the profit generated on their investment.

I 100% agree with you here because it was more easier for Bitcoin to do $34600% while in lower figures than for it to replicate that same feet at this current price it's already at, especially in a very short period of time like the ten years period of time, because I really don't see Bitcoin hitting a billion dollars in ten years time even though it's a very attractive asset to invest in.

Of course in year's to come bitcoin is going to 8 figures because the drastic growth 📈 of bitcoin is going into something else even to some people who fails to invest now and to have the knowledge of bitcoin investment will definitely live to regret it because bitcoin is going to a height that even the atmosphere do not understand......

But come to think of it why will a living in this generation won't think of bitcoin and it future because the later is going to be greater than the formal just like last year till today though it is a coin that has a downtrend sometimes but believe me bitcoin will always rise to a tremendous point that people who even withdraw during downtrend will also regret why this is a pure business you have to do with a high IQ and we all have to be expectant when bitcoin is mentioned because the future is near and very great

I snipped the rest, but there is something very wrong with that chart.

Gold is currently about $2,037 per ounce, so you need about 30 or 31 ounces of gold to buy one bitcoin (current price $62,900) not 200.

10 years from now no body will assume or think that had it been they baught btc in 2024, that such figure of about %34600 would have been achieved in 2034, the value is an unrealistic value. I may not know much in cryptocurrency but I know if a coin pumps from maybe 0.000125 to $20 or #30 it will be difficult to pump in thousands again. meaning it will take time to grow. It might even take 10years to complete %500. ever since bitcoin has grown so high it has never grown by 50percent or or %100percent a day but may take 1year to make it atain %100. Check-in from the last ATH of bitcoin, when btc fell below the ATH. It took Bitcoin 3years to regain a lost of  almost %70 since 2021 to 2024, if not more than. So it might just take btc %100 or%150 to complete a ten years cycle. Let's take a look at this JJG table of absumbtion.
https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/29/fHPFw.png
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5469290.msg63695151#msg63695151

Though this table was made on absumbtion but there is still more realistic value in growth compeard to this your value of %34600 if you check intervals of ten year might just be a %100 or highest %200 you can check the value in the first year 1/14/2025  was $59.999.40 and the value in the 10th year 1/14/34 at $119.939.08 that is approximately %100 .

We see there is a difference in maturity here too, what makes Bitcoin gain higher is because of the age factor. Bitcoin is the newest while Gold and Property have been investment media for many people for a long time. Just think about the next 10 years.

If gold is able to provide 2x profits and property is able to provide 15x profits or at worst maybe 10x, can bitcoin get 350x again?

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/02/29/fHhg5.png
While currently the price of BTC is 62k, if that 350x could happen again, do you believe the price of BTC will be $21.7m per BTC in 10 years?

A multiplier of that size only came because Bitcoin was still in its infancy 10 years ago. Meanwhile, the other instruments you mentioned are not babies anymore.

May I draw my conclusion/opinion from your last sentence?
that if bitcoin is no longer in its infancy then the procurement value will not reach more than 1000x, right, just like property and gold which only have a procurement value of up to 15x,
but it makes sense that if the price of 1 btc gets more expensive it will be more difficult for people to have 1 btc if they want to buy instantly

Come on JJG, please don't be too harsh on me. My portfolio is composed of majority in Bitcoin. What I mean by that is I don't know if I'll still be living by that time.

You don't know what I am experiencing right now and what may happen to me by tomorrow or after a decade and that's why I've said I don't know if I'll still be around by that time.

I've got a position that I can decide to hold even more than a decade but it is that I don't know what tomorrow may bring to me and this is outside bitcoin and the market. I may not be a bitcoin maxi because I hold some alts but it has the biggest portion of my holdings and my heart. <3

Yeah, just plan your actions on how you'd increase your position or time of selling.

Although real estate assets can still be said to be a good investment, when compared to Bitcoin, these assets are still very far from producing good profits.
And if you want big profits in the real estate sector, you also have to buy real estate that is in an urban area and is busy with people, of course it has a high property value and must be supported by this. Security and existence of public facilities, population growth and ease of access and so on. However, most of them only get a profit of 2x the previous purchase price and even then it takes quite a long time, at least 4-5 years to get a fairly decent profit. And the question is if the price goes up, is it easy to sell it because the price is already high and often it is difficult to sell and inevitably you have to lower the selling price.
The comparison is very large when compared with Bitcoin, buying Bitcoin if it is not sold for 4-5 years is guaranteed to make a profit many times over. Because 4-5 years is the Bitcoin cycle which will make the Bitcoin price become a new ATH or at least the price will be much higher than the previous purchase price for 4-5 years. And it is clearly very different in terms of profits when compared to Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is the best investment in terms of long-term profits and it is also not difficult to sell it back.

when you are making comparison between real estate management or a real estate investment with the cryptocurrency investment especially Bitcoin you should do know also that both of them have different margin because real estate, because a real statement management is kind of management that even in urban area it has to do with a recommendation and also a population size of the city so the profit in real Estate Management is very slide to be measured or to be compared to bitcoin investment because a real state management can cost a damage when a government recite a development in your real Estate government can wake up at any point in time to take over your property since it is a landed property, but government cannot wake and take your Bitcoin that is the difference between Real Estate Management and Investment of Bitcoin

Fraud and theft is the same thing is the same thing with hacks, you didn't know that when someone hacks your account that they're also stealing your data? I think that's a given thing already. It's also worth noting that the things that you're talking about aren't going anywhere anyway, there's a lot of money in crypto, always expect that there's someone out that will want to break that because they want those crypto for themselves. Also, what the hell is this wrong bitcoin? Ain't no way that someone can mistake bitcoin for something else right? I don't really think that it's true for many people that it's their number one reason for not investing in bitcoin though, think about it, they don't know about bitcoin and most of them don't have that much knowledge about technology so I don't think that hacks, frauds and thefts are the things that would first come to their mind when you introduce them to bitcoin.

The highest ATH is not yet, but according to previous ATH predictions, the highest price this month can be said to have exceeded the ATH in question. Although in a different space we will see the highest ATH according to a cycle that runs through a period process that has not been able to be determined accurately. This shows how strong the influence of bitcoin is and that it is able to stand by its fundamentals because even though the world economy is slightly weakening, bitcoin's journey cannot be dictated by just one event.

That's why someone's presence in bitcoin does not require excessive worry because market reactions occur beyond logic and even though ATH has not yet fully arrived, bitcoin can always provide a surprise. Increase investment and then hold on until we can go to the moon because that is actually the investment we hope for.

O.k.. maybe the unit is not correct, but the trend seems to be correct, and if we look at bitcoin's overall market cap compared with gold, the trend is the same.. bitcoin is currently right around 1/10th or maybe 1/12th of gold's market cap and bitcoin is likely going to fairly easily get to 10x gold's market cap in this cycle or maybe the next 2-3 cycles, and then surely the time between bitcoin getting from 10x to 1,000x gold's market cap could take a while longer.. maybe 50-200 years.. and so we cannot really know for sure, even if we can see the trend, and we can even understand why bitcoin right around 1,000x better than gold... in terms of its various monetary characteristics, scarcity, divisibility, verifiability, portability, censorship resistance, costs in terms of needs for use of third-parties.

So, even if the details are not exactly clear, we should be able to recognize the ongoing power of bitcoin in terms of our own investment allocation choices, and if you want to keep a lot of gold instead of bitcoin because you believe that it serves some meaningful financial purpose (from here forward), then that's your choice. 

I will give you that there could be some Armageddon-type purposes to keep some physical gold, but that still likely is pretty low in terms of how much preparation that you really need in that direction as compared to bitcoin - even though bitcoin relies on communications and even electricity/power.


That chart that you are showing from me was for the purpose of someone inputting whatever his own expectations might be regarding BTC price increases while he is investing into BTC and using an 8% per year BTC price appreciation as a potential assumption that a guy might plug in to the spreadsheet.

When it comes to attempts to predict future BTC prices, personally, I like to refer to my entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591), which tries to project BTC price bottoms and it uses the 200-WMA to show past changes in the 200-WMA. .while at the same time attempting to make some kind of a reasonable prediction of future direction (that is of the bottom BTC price of the 200-WMA in order to figure out how many BTC that anyone might need to reach default entry-level fuck you status of the chart that is implied that fuck you status has an entry-level value of $2 million).

So that entry-level fuck you status chart shows mid-2034 as having a bottom (a 200-WMA) of nearly $287k - and of course, the chart should be updated each 6 months to attempt to verify if the 200-WMA is tracking above or below expectations.. so personally, I am expecting the chart to change every 6 months, and right now for the current 6 months it is right around 20% or more higher than expectations, and the next update will be in the end of May.


Part of the reason that my fuck you status chart is showing fairly conservative with only about $31,500 and $287k , which is ONLY a 9.1x increase in the bottom price, yet I bet that bitcoin outperforms gold, equities and property, and I doubt that you get 3x to 5x increases in property in terms of real terms.


Fair enough.  I am not trying to be any more hard on you than you deserve, and sure I was speculating a little bit in regards to why you said what you said, but now you explained further to show that I was not too far off in my superficial assessment of the situation. ..

And in the end, it does not really matter very much about your own personal position or situation. That is up to you to determine.  We are responding in a public thread, so if there are ambiguities, then members should be attempting to clarify those ambiguities, when feasible.


Hopefully, you are not too distracted by shitcoins.  I tend to recommend either no shitcoins or if you cannot resist, then to limit them to no more than 10% of your bitcoin holdings.  I imagine that even if BTC is your BIGGEST portion, it still is not close to 90%, and maybe it is not even more than 50% hahahahaha.. which  means you probably don't understand what is bitcoin as compared with the various shitcoins that you have chosen to waste your time, energy and money.


Surely, people have to figure out why they are in bitcoin, and whether they merely want to get short term dollar profits, or perhaps some guys might be trying to hold bitcoin for longer time frames in order to have more options 4-10 years or longer down the road.   So anyone still accumulating bitcoin can be placed in a dilemma regarding their continuation to accumulate, even when the BTC prices are going up a lot.. And in that regard, you don't increase your bitcoin position by selling.  You ONLY can increase your position by buying, and if you are in the accumulation stage of your bitcoin journey, then you should not sell bitcoin if your goal is to accumulate more of it..   

On the other hand, once you get to a point of adequate accumulation and/or over accumulation, then you have more options to sell some of it while it is going up, and if it does not go up then you don't sell it.. so then if you are overaccumulated, and then you want to start cashing out, then you should be able to cash out at any time and surely, it feels better to be cashing out when the price is going out rather than if it is just flat.... but at the same time, there could be concerns about selling too many BTC too soon, especially since previous ATHs tend to be pass through zones rather than being places in which any of us would be or should be expecting corrections... even though in the short term, anything can happen.

Bitcoin as an asset has well beat gold if you ask me, cause bitcoin has not exited long enough as gold yet it has well beat it in value and almost some distance to it's total market cap which we could well exceed in up to 50 - 100 years to come, investing in gold can only be as a store of value reason and even now that fact is shaking, hold is been minned almost every day and amount of gold available is more than 2x the size of all available bitcoin, so In terms of store of value bitcoin would well beat gold, the only reason why most person's don't want to store value In bitcoin is cause it's still volatile and fluctuates at times but still yet in terms of how it was built, it's better than gold in almost everything.

Like you said gold would only be very needful for a situation where electricity has a problem or some Armageddon-type situation that destroys the power supply of the world and that seems so less likely to happen, so bitcoin is still a better asset than gold because it was built better.


Many person's are most likely thinking in terms of having safety by investing in shitcoins without even weighing that decision, almost all other altcoins are well depending on bitcoin to gain value, that means if anything happens to bitcoin all other altcoins are well affected by it, so if I am afraid that something bad would happen to bitcoin and my safety plan is to invest in altcoins then I'm making a foolish decision cause if anything happens to bitcoin all the rest are well affected.

If there is any need to diversify from bitcoin so early as an investor (which I doubt cause right now bitcoin would well challenge any investment asset or stock and bound and we'll come out on top) then you should be thinking in terms of tangible investment like real estates, shares , stocks and bonds etc which most of them would require you a level of funds to engage in.

A more tangible advice, build your bitcoin portfolio first for up to 8 years before you start thinking of diversification, but anyway it's your choice I can't tell you reason for been afraid of bitcoin and it's good to make this decisions yourself cause it's your risk, but your investing a in a more risky path if you invest in shitcoins cause they don't have any real value of themselves.

Nobody knows the features of bitcoin especially when will be life spam of bitcoin, we don't have fear for something we don't know how it will end, just put bitcoin in your place like any other things you know that may end today or may not end in feature, so what you are just doing is assumption and over prediction of feature, theirs nothing that doesn't have to do with what is necessary or what's good, I believe that bitcoin investment is better any portfolio you assume that will be of help in altcoins investment, nothing tomorrow will yield in bitcoin long-term holding, we get fear in bitcoin but we don't get fear in any other investment that has to deal with risk

I don't know if any of us in this forum now will be alive when Bitcoin block reward will become zero because this is the only time that is not clear to me of what direction Bitcoin will go. By that time, people might pay higher fews to carry out transaction or it could also be normal like we have now, this is soemthing I do not know but I'm sure there will be a way to keep Bitcoin going, so no cause for alarm.

The people that should be worried about the future of Bitcoin are those preparing to pass their Bitcoin stash on to their heirs. Their worries will not be to themselves but their children because it is their heirs that may see when the block reward will get to zero.

Honestly I had the feeling that was what you meant cause there wasn’t any other way to read that message so I asked to be certain so I don’t make such bad assumptions. I don’t know what you’re going through but I hope you find healing and be able to stay for even many more decades so you can watch Bitcoin skyrocket, since you said it has the biggest portion of your heart.

Mate younger person's are entering everyday and there is every possibility that this thread would still be alive by that time, bitcoin enthusiast pop out in every generation.

Im think that the block reward would not hit zero cause bitcoin also have smaller units called Satoshis, and if the block reward were to split from 1 bitcoin, it would split to 50 million Satoshis since 100 Satoshis makes one bitcoin, I might not be right but I think there is logic to what I am saying.

well, with this, I think the people who say that bitcoin is a bad investment are wrong. however, this is simply how we hold the assets we own over the long term. However, if we compare gold, real estate, and bitcoin, then we not only look at the benefits, but also at the risks.
Even though the potential profits that can be obtained from bitcoin are very high within 10 years, we also need to think about the risks. We won't know what our investments will be in 10 years' time. However, for gold and real estate, the potential for us to lose a large amount of value is very small, especially if we have real estate that is in a very good position. Sometimes, people prefer investments that have little risk because they don't want to think about it so much, and on the other hand, people are willing to take risks for the potential for large profits. Bitcoin is a very good investment that can even provide far more profits than gold and real estate, but the risks are also quite large, so we need to use money that we are willing to lose to invest in bitcoin.

If we consider the long-term assurance when choosing an investment, we could say that real estate is the best choice. However, because investing in Bitcoin is somewhat more profitable at this time, many people have chosen this. Risk-takers will never think about the risks but weigh much on their profit potential to earn. In fact, even low earners have their interest and courage in Bitcoin because they believe that this will help them improve their living status as they could still invest in small amounts rather than saving a lot of money for real estate plans.

bitcoin will continue to move and its price and the transaction fee will continue to change provided as the price of Bitcoin is going up year by year it is obvious that the transaction fee will it be changing so let us not be afraid of Bitcoin getting to zero any day anytime or bitcoin value lost it value any day or anytime because Bitcoin has turned to the world currency whereby most of the prominent countries most about bitcoin and they are all trading with bitcoin right now so the value will continue to be recognized or be valid until another technology that is higher than Bitcoin is being introduced and have more influence than Bitcoin

In follow-up to my earlier post. I don't claim to be any kind of gold follower, but here is a better chart that compares bitcoin and gold with the grey line showing the grams of gold per bitcoin (currently at 863.24), and the yellow line show the ounces of gold per bitcoin (currently at 30.45).
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/03/06/yzb7P.png
https://charts.bitbo.io/btc-gold/

Everyone certainly hopes that the investments they make over a long period of time will give them profits from the investments they make and investing in real estate is a good choice if they have large funds to buy it, but if we choose to invest in Bitcoin we can do it by some of the savings that we have and hold for a long period of time for the profits we want, those who understand the risks they will face will certainly never be afraid of risks because they can face them with the profits they will get.

For some people who have low incomes, of course they will choose to invest in Bitcoin because if they are thinking about real estate, of course they have to save longer before they can afford to buy it, but not with Bitcoin, they can buy it according to their means.

Apparently bitcoin is a very nice coin to invest in though it has a high risk to take and bear also it has a high chances of you making a huge profit but as for long term investment personally I don't think I support such risk because anything very funny and sad at the same time can happenee along the line without you holding anyone responsible instead you will bear it till the end of it.....

Nevertheless, Real Estate is the one of the investment I can advice investors to move in because there's no high risk behind doing a real estate business hence your documents are all intact and properly done with you. Real estate still remains the best long term investment business that will pay you off in the future with out any high risk of losing your investment and moreover it can physical investment or online real estate investment but yet it low risk.....

I am not trying to contradict things but i am only been reasonable in as much as I campaign for bitcoin and I have some investment in bitcoin but I will not assertain it to be a long term investment I will only do a short term investment in bitcoin investment because this is a cryptocurrencies which all ours are not certain about.....

So let investment wisely be it long or short term investment....

Thanks 🙏👍

You do not seem to even understand what you are talking about including the definition of risk or how risk can be mitigated through position size and practices like that.

For a lot of reasons, "property" or "real estate" is not an obviously better investment than bitcoin.  So get the fuck out of here with your supposed insightful assessment that property is obviously better based on an assumption that property is lower risk than bitcoin blah blah blah... that is almost pure bullshit, especially if you actually try to understand the costs and benefits of the assets that you are supposedly trying to assess.

Another thing, can you buy $10 of real estate at a time and spread out your purchasing over 20 years (let's say on average on weekly basis or some other convenient and perhaps randomly self-directed timeline) , so maybe after 20 years maybe you end up investing little by little $10k into it? 

There are advantages to the portability and flexibility of bitcoin, including the possibility for a lack of any encumbrances, depending on how you source your purchases of BTC.

Sure, you can live in your real estate, and therefore save on rent, so you can make those kinds of comparisons in terms of whether it is better to rent or to buy, that is if you can even figure out how to afford a down payment, in the even that you might ONLY have $10 extra per week that you are able to use for any investment, so you might not even be close to being in a position to get into any property purchasing arrangement.

And even if you might happen to have $10k that you can use to purchase property or put a down payment or to get into some kind of a financial arrangement so that you are able to accomplish that, it surely is not without costs to have to commit so much to your supposed "investment" in a lump sum..   

I don't have any problem with the idea of lump sum investment or lump sum committing to some kind of an investment, yet it is still not obvious that property gives you enough flexibility in terms of how to employ your lump sum funds.

I could go on about the various costs of property, and whether those are boiled down to investment costs or consumption costs, the punchline remains the same in regards to the non-obvious conclusion in regards to property being superior place to put your value as compared with bitcoin... and surely it could be the case that anyone who is struggling with cashflow would be way the fuck better off delaying their purchase of property 4-10 years or longer while they invest in bitcoin and let their bitcoin investment ride and perhaps also to rent rather than to  buy whatever their property arrangements might be, that is if they have a choice.  Sure some folks do not have a choice because their family might be forcing them into the purchase of property so that the family has a place to live or that they can keep the property that they have already committed to, but that still does not mean it is a better place to put your value, even if you might already have high switching costs to get out of your situation and maybe you are not able to buy bitcoin based on those arrangements to keep property that is already in the family.


Of course, you are free to do whatever you want and to think whatever you want, but don't come out trying to proclaim that you are more reasonable than others merely because you fail/refuse to recognize and/or appreciate the value of bitcoin as a long term investment.  From my perspective, it sounds as if either you are not being genuine in what you are saying or you do not understand bitcoin as much as you are seeming to try to show yourself as a supposed thoughtful person.


You are patronizing. As if you even know what is the meaning of "investing wisely."  I have my doubts.

To the extent that you are being genuine with us, you might have come to some conclusions regarding what you plan to do (which is invest in real estate and being a short term investor or trader in bitcoin), but it is not even close to a reasonable and/or wise approach, since you don't even seem to understand bitcoin, even while you are spouting out as if you have come to a conclusion about some supposed wiser and superior approach to the matter of how you are planning to (or perhaps already are) allocate to property versus bitcoin.

Don't get me wrong.  Property has it's place, and there may well be some folks who are better off to get involved in property based on their already involvement in it, but it surely is not an obvious choice for people who did not yet make various commitments to property or maybe they already have a lot of sunk value into properties that are likely not even close to as "profitable" as you are proclaiming them to be, especially if you compare to bitcoin over a 4-10 year period or longer.   

Thanks so much for your 💯 correction and the insights which you have made me to have about bitcoin I appreciate that's the more  reason why I am here obviously to learn everyday as you can see I am a newbies I need more lessons even to say that I am teaching myself everyday on bitcoin thanks again for making me to have an adjustment based on my reasoning that real estate is very much left behind when bitcoin is mentioned thanks alot

Gold has the lowest amount possible out of all three in your comparison but easy to fake.
Real Estate has the highest amount possible out of all three and will always grow with a steady growth, someone always wants to buy and its getting fewer and fewer.
Bitcoin has the medium amount possible out of all three but you can't and assume the next 15 yrs growth because of the last 15 yrs.

You are correct that past performance does not guarantee future results, yet you still have to decide how you are going to allocate any investment that you are going to make, including if you happen to be a no coiner and you decide to stay a no coiner. that is a decision, and so good  luck if you choose to stay on zero when it comes to bitcoin when the most likely better conclusion would be to figure out what your target accumulation level should be, perhaps somewhere between 5% and 25% would be a good start, but hey if you prefer to stay on zero, that's surely your right to make that decision for yourself and your own financial circumstances.

Perhaps every individual has the right to make his or her choice but i would prefer people who are becoming enlighten in Bitcoin to embrace the opportunity that a paradigm (Bitcoin ) has offered them than to remain a crack head believing whatsoever seems right in there eyes.

With the current and past even that has happen in Bitcoin one should know and understand that Bitcoin is ever going to perform its best in every circle. But if one is personally convinced to remain a no coiner then, he or she should probably be prepared to accept its consequences because I wouldn't like to get a regret news at some point.

That is why a lot of people regret from not buying Bitcoin earlier because of that assumption. Although we can't assure that what happens today can be the same in the future, that is faith and trust. Risk-takers don't choose to be safe but rather prefer to take more but look, these people are earning more compared to those who invest in nothing.

Some people sell their gold for Bitcoin.
Some people sell their valuable properties for Bitcoin including land.
There is only one reason of these things --Bitcoin is the majority choice by most because of its growing price trend.

Each person or investor has been determined or outlined with their own skills and abilities as well as their own habits in the field or what they invest in. They already know the risks and have also done research or analysis of what is happening, but they still persist according to what they believe. Because in all forms of investment there must be people who are experts or accustomed to being involved in it, and the same as those or crypto or Bitcoin investors.
They are not wrong because that is their path and expertise in their field and also it is everyone's right and whether it is profitable or not profitable is a risk in any investment and it is not always like that because of the turning of the wheel, and those who switch to Bitcoin because they know the potential of Bitcoin in terms of profits, especially in the long term. And it doesn't mean they forget about previous investments, they are sometimes smarter in utilizing or utilizing Bitcoin to build on previous investments.
Because Bitcoin is the best solution in any case, And I have several friends who are used to it or have been doing it for a long time who have invested in gold and also real estate. They do both and leave behind no prior expertise or knowledge in the field, and Bitcoin is a promising investment alternative for all different groups and professions to grow their businesses or make other things happen.

No doubt that real estate is a good investment but still can't compare it to bitcoin,  starting your real estate investment with the amount as little as $10 won't be enough to generate substantial income , while bitcoin as given privilege to those that are not too financially stable to accumulate bitcoin with as little as $10 (using the DCAing strategy ) . And as time goes on with a proper and frequent DCAing one can actually build a good and portfolio in bitcoin that would yield them good profit.
yeah you are right that the past performance does not guarantee the future and all that, but still during those past years bitcoin didn't have the adoption he had now but still, bitcoin  kept increasing tremendously and as time goes on bitcoin would keep on getting the adoption it deserves. And at that time being a no or low coiner would only lead you to a  point where you gonna be saying this shitty statement "had I known". Because that what alot of individuals that had the opportunity to buy bitcoin when the price was still low are and they didn't are saying now. While some that hold back then till now are damn proud of themselves for the action they took back then , In investing in bitcoin.

 

I guess the mate is referring to Bitcoin scarcity and limited supply plus it current values and coverage in the market,  of course between bitcoin, real estate and Gold, I will definitely give Bitcoin a higher percentage as an investment and my reasons are that Bitcoin offers me alot of advantages as an investment more than the other two, just like as gold can be faked, and real estate needs alot of maintenance and taxes that suck off almost all the gains, Bitcoin, on the other hand, have none of that, and that makes it truly an edge over inflation.

Secondly, Bitcoin investment doesn't attract any form of tax unless in countries where there is high Bitcoin regulation,  but in a lot of other country ine can hold Bitcoin without being taxed or cost of maintenance just like another investment choice,  and for that, u may likely give Bitcoin my 50% accumulation target if I have the needed cashflow, because the higher the speed in accumulation of bitcoin, the better and faster way to be in profits on the long run.

You are not necessarily risk taking for buying bitcoin. You are likely taking as much risk if you decide not to buy bitcoin, even though not buying bitcoin is the default move.  Yeah, it can take a bit of time to actually figure out how to source your bitcoin and/or to get bitcoin price exposure... So then maybe getting price exposure is one level, and then taking bitcoin into self-custody is another level. there can be some learning involved in any of these matters, which might seem like risks when you are learning about something new and even investing might be new to someone who had not been previously investing, or maybe they are able to invest through their work 401k.. but not very many normies even have those kinds of retirement investment plans that they are able to invest into.  So if they have never invested, then they have to figure it out. which might seem risky, even though it might be practical, since not investing tends to result in depreciation and devaluation of your purchasing power, so those who are not investing, might well be in a worse (and/or riskier) position than those who are figuring out ways to invest.


People are figuring out bitcoin to be a good place to allocate value, but they still have to figure out how to do it and maybe how to do it in a way that is reasonable to their own situation... but yeah, we are still early, even though more and more people are learning about bitcoin and even coming to realize that it is better than they act, rather than failing to act, when it comes to getting bitcoin exposure and/or even self-custody of it as a possible next step.

I like to think that bitcoin's an exception to that rule, 3 is sure still a coincidence in my book but knowing the popularity of bitcoin and the faith of many investors about it's growth and their devotion to it grows daily, I don't think that bitcoin will ever disappoint, it might take a long time before it will go up again once it has gone down but it will always surprise us when this happens, bitcoin's not any kind of altcoin out there that once it shows it's blaze of glory, it's all downhill from there, bitcoin doesn't really have to prove anything at this point, institutional investors are recognizing it as a legitimate investment tool even though it's still as volatile as ever. It's really weird to me that people are still on the fence when it comes to bitcoin investing, if you really want to invest in it, you probably have a really good benefit if you stop thinking and doubting and just start accumulating through DCA no matter what happens to the market.

No. There is no exception.  You cannot use past performance to figure out future performance.

However, you can assess the assets fundamentals based on past performance, and you can also assign probabilities to various future scenarios, and surely with bitcoin, any of us who are studying it and attempting to understand it, we should be recognizing and appreciating that BTC's network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer (https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-seven-network-effects-of-bitcoin/)) are continuing to expand, which likely continues to strengthen bitcoin's investment thesis. 

My entry-level fuck you status chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591) shows the past performance of bitcoins 200-WMA and attempts to assign values to the future advancement of the 200-WMA (which is the bottom price), yet at the same time I am using diminishing returns, and the next time I update it in May, I am going to have to plug in more bullish numbers because I was overly conservative on this particular trend at least for this 6 month period and likely for the rest of this cycle, too, which seems to show that the 200-WMA will be moving up more than 25% (50% annualized) instead of 16% (32% annualized) for our current 6-month period.


Well yeah you seem to be describing both the value of networking effects contributing to exponential growth patterns that become even more dynamic, interesting and wide-spread when we are talking about value-laden information storage and transfer that is on the protocol level that is a paradigm shifting technology, which is likely to continue to contribute to ongoing exponential growth.  Which means that the sooner you are in, the better that you are likely to be, and even if you are a bitcoin doubter or a bitcoin naysayer, it is probably better to get some, just in case... because it may well not return back down to lower numbers from here and it might not even return back down to current numbers once it goes up more. 

So, having said all of that, none of it is guaranteed, even though we can become more informed about the asset from its past performance and understanding the what is going on in terms of the underlying asset, so if we put those ideas into a proper context we can better understand where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going forward, but we should not be merely predicting future performance based on past results - even though the past results help to inform us about the asset.


Even people who took whimpy investment stances have done quite well with their bitcoin investment as long as they mostly accumulated bitcoin and held it without selling it.

So yeah, you could be a skeptic about bitcoin and take a more whimpy investment, and you are likely going to be better off by getting off zero. .which is also what i had been saying since around 2014 with the suggestion for normie newbies to get at least 1% into bitcoin, even if they are skeptical of it.  Since 2024, I have upped my recommendation for normie newbies to start out with 5% to 25%, yet of course, they have to figure out the details, and sure just like in the past, it is still going to take a long time for normie newbies to get into bitcoin.  We are still early and the number of world wide adoption is quite small, even though there are some folks who are disproportionately gobbling up the supply, which is another reason why getting in early is likely better than waiting.

We are currently in very interesting times, and the next few months are going to continue to be interesting, and likely we are going to continue to have interesting times throughout 2024 and probably dragging into 2025 in terms of ongoing upward price pressures on bitcoin.  I have my doubts about those theories that suggest that we will get through a whole cycle by this year, and it is more likely that it is going to take all of this year and at least most of 2025 to play out, while at the same time bitcoin can always have surprises, both to the upside and to the downside, even if we might keep the 4-year fractal in mind in terms of a a base case scenario of what we expect, we still cannot feel any kind of guarantee that the base case (or the 4-year fractal) is going to hold, and we are going to be in a way better position after we have passed through it to see how well it has compared to previous 4-year fractals.. while at the same time, some people may well say I told you so in regards to the matching of the pattern, and I have no problem with that, even though each of us should be attempting to prepare to stay in the game rather than expecting that we know for sure what is going to happen, so we have to be prepared for extremes in either direction that may or may not end up breaking prior patterns.

This case happen from people didn't learn from history of bitcoin and still regretting about its potential that's why they always regret without doing any action.

And we can't expect anything from those guys since its like they hard to learn due to trust issue but if they could just learn how big the potential for bitcoin to grow then just see the history of it maybe there's some changes will happen on their decisions to invest on bitcoin.

They should now that bitcoin is slowly entering in the mainstream that's why its so good for them to trust it because if they didn't do anything and continue to afraid for sure in future they would provably regret again why they didn't buy bitcoin on past years where the price at nice figures for them to accumulate or start their investment.